Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby chetak » 10 Jan 2016 06:47

Amit ‏@different_take Jan 4

On analysis of the reactions on Pathankot. I feel there is a reason why we have sawa crore devi-devtas. That is the min needed to save us

8 retweets 9 likes

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29218 » 10 Jan 2016 06:53

manjgu wrote:@primus ji.. . folks on the forum hardly know much abt capabilities of def forces except what is gleaned in media/public forums, domain. the Pakis will have a very precise understanding of IAF capabilties, (C 130 Ti can look up X km with resolution YY .. i mean they will have very precise figures..what is their serviceability rates etc..) and vice versa. the air intelligence is dedicated to such tasks.


I suppose you are correct Manju(?) Ji. However, I am constantly amazed by the breadth and the depth of knowledge displayed here. Just wondered sometimes if people who are 'in the know' may inadvertently let slip some details that prudence may suggest should be avoided. In my experience (been on the 'net' since 1992), people do have a weakness sometimes of 'talking too much' on a forum. I am guilty more often than I would care to admit :oops:

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Thomas Kolarek » 10 Jan 2016 07:00

Aditya G wrote:

I pray that behind that somber face is a mind scheming to take revenge. During upa it was easy to simply blame congress and MMS for lack of same. Everyday I wake up with a hope to see newspapers carrying news of the same.

/Rant off

You captured exactly my emotion on this. Every f****** country does take revenge when such thing happens, what is wrong with ours ?

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Jan 2016 07:12

kit, about why they called back. We can speculate at this point:


May be Paki SOP for a good reason. Back in 1983-84 when Bhindranwale was at his peak and s(h)1tting inside the Sone ka mandir, the ISI sent an explosives expert (father of many soosai-vest experts) to help Bh.. wire up explosives all inside said Mandir.

There was someone else already inside Bakistan - last name similar to that of a pigeon, symbols of Biss. The ISI bum-ustaad was intercepted and sent to houristan b4 he crossed the yellowsea. Instead, pigeon was greeted by the Empty-Headies and taken inside the Mandir to "wire up" all the explosives to blast the whole Mandir to bits.

The "bum-expert' then walked out - ostensibly to return to Bakistan. The rest is history. The Mandir suffered some damage - but the wired-up explosives did not blow up.

Surely the ISI must have changed SOP to get their operatives to call back after crossing YellowSea.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby manjgu » 10 Jan 2016 07:44

primus... i agree with u partially. But what amazes me more on BR is the analysis of a situation rather than factual details like what is range of TI on C 130 type of information ( technical specs/details). I wish our babu/neta complex had even 1/100 of the analytical skills of forum members and 1/1000 of balls and a bit of gairat, this country would have been a different place. I meet often some senior babus in the police and civil services ( in family gatherings etc..not professionally) and they are a most depressing lot. there is no concern for the country , just which posting, which ministry, backbiting etc.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29247 » 10 Jan 2016 08:10

It escaped my brain

NoKo has tested a H bum and nobody said. Nako test karo!

Why we India take this opportunity to test our own H bum if that is shaped up in the last 17 years...

TSP has any way ramped up its arse_nell

If we can't administer Jappad for what ever reason why not send a message that we can make ice rink of TSP?

This at minimum and beginning?

I hope and pray that this backstabbing of Modi ji intentions does not go unanswered.

Ps: are we having enough NV equipment for special ops teams instead of using flood lights as cited in earlier encounters ?

A drone with NV IR is what I have been crying for that 12 years on this forum.
Instead of expensive LCH, helicopter gun ships with pilots at risk. We can not allow high ranking officials like Lt cols etc to be lost to rag rag tag terrorists team of 34 or 4. I in now why mean we can afford to lose even a single Jawan or NCOs JCOs or any one BSF or CSIF Jawans as well.

The whole nation need to be informed of the great sacrifices that are made to make citizens safe. I wish many of our cricket Karod pathi Bollywood mega Karod pathi and patnis donate some wealth to next of kith and kin lost in these kind of Ops....

Imagine the uncertainty thrust on the ones left behind... Their lives changed for ever.
Most of my anguish is caused due to that gut wrenching feeling and my outburst here some times.
I feel,helpless..

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29247 » 10 Jan 2016 08:22

kit wrote:more specifically why were they given cellphones that could be traced easily ..why not satellite phones / encrypted phones ..i don't think the ISI is that stupid ! .. something doesn't quite add up ... with their level of training ..it points to a deeper plot than it looks



This is to send a message that TSP can play with fire and with out retribution

2) you ma hug Nawaz but does not have any awaaz or Hawa except form pundits Chana in his pot belly

3) TSP army sending a message to Badmash that don't get cosy with NAMo or GOI

4) To bolster ip TSP image that it can tie a big neighbor in knots with simple team of Disrty half dozen of its own.

5) that TSPmhas sleeping cels to betray India at its calling a la Telefone movie of 70s

6) Kargil happened when Nawaz was PM. So doe does gurdaspur and Pathankot

No response from India is defacto acknowledgement that Indian has no means to retaliate

It is imperative that like. simulated TSP has exhausted the 100 provocation boon from its four fathers

Time to act even If it's a token gesture to assure we can do much bigger things if need be .
To our citizens and as well as to Paki citizens, we must humiliate the TSP generals they have forgotten the lashings the true one in 1971, not Kargil which was not even pinprick and we lost lot of young guns for nothing to show .

IMVHo

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Thomas Kolarek » 10 Jan 2016 08:51

Looks like ripe fruit officials in PMO, MoD, MoEA will never allow India to punish Pakistan, citing Super powers reaction etc., I give up on this Govt. too

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Singha » 10 Jan 2016 09:05

^^ that is a indic fault sire. moment some commander falls, or some rumour flows through the battle....rank and file start to get demoralized and abandon the battle, which turns into a rout, followed by pursuit of the fleeing ranks and a general massacre.

take a leaf out of the book of zealous abrahamic armies. they do not lose heart as easily because they are firmly convinced of divine mandate and that god is on their side only.

I am also firmly convinced god is on india's side because despite massive attacks by other entities, the country is still relatively intact without the kind of bloodbath the chinese or persians had to endure.

reflect the enemies hate on itself - be a indic ghazi :mrgreen:


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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Thomas Kolarek » 10 Jan 2016 09:17

Singha wrote:^^ that is a indic fault sire. moment some commander falls, or some rumour flows through the battle....rank and file start to get demoralized and abandon the battle, which turns into a rout, followed by pursuit of the fleeing ranks and a general massacre.

take a leaf out of the book of zealous abrahamic armies. they do not lose heart as easily because they are firmly convinced of divine mandate and that god is on their side only.

I am also firmly convinced god is on india's side because despite massive attacks by other entities, the country is still relatively intact without the kind of bloodbath the chinese or persians had to endure.

reflect the enemies hate on itself - be a indic ghazi :mrgreen:


Argument is like, Ok to be raped by neighbor at will and hide as if nothing happened, to stay on with the marriage with the husband. Speaks, why this country cannot grow itself to be a super power for next 50 years. Every govt. since 1971 in the last 3 decades, failed to protect us. Something wrong with our IAS, IPS officials etc., and their training's. Sad, but I give up any hope of spine left in this Govt.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_28705 » 10 Jan 2016 09:52

Thomas Kolarek wrote:Something wrong with our IAS, IPS officials etc., and their training's. Sad, but I give up any hope of spine left in this Govt.


Most people who attempt Civil Services Exam - start off with at least a bit of patriotism, service orientation and purity of heart.

However the intellectual mafia of this country have created an exam process and training regime to brainwash the officers into become soft. Aspirants are brutalized and punished for having realistic, non-academic views.

For example, let me draw your attention a couple of this year's questions in General Studies - paper 2.

Terrorist activities and mutual distrust have clouded India-Pakistan relations. To what extent the use of soft power like sports and cultural exchanges could help generate goodwill between the two countries? Discuss with suitable examples.


This is a loaded question. The alternatives that this question affords will be in terms of:
a) Yes, they will generate goodwill
b) No, they won't generate goodwill

However, the real answer is that - goodwill cannot be practical when Paki textbooks indoctrinate Pakis so badly! People who give such answers - well they can kiss their attempt goodbye! Besides, how the frack can "goodwill" be the solution to "state sponsored terrorism"????

Another question from the very same paper:

Does the right to clean environment entail legal regulations on burning crackers during Diwali? Discuss in the light of Article 21 of the Indian Constitution and Judgement(s) of the Apex Court in this regard.


Do these intellectuals have the spine to ask the following question?
Does Milad-un-Nabi violates Art 21 by psychologically coercing people to indulge in barbarism. Also, does Art 21 - the right to life include the right to injure onself in the name of religion - like with the case of Milad-un-Nabi?

Similarly, nearly every prelims of Civil Services has one question on Indus Valley Civ that reinforces the narrative that:
a) IVC had EVERYTHING great - except Chariots.
b) Aryans were utter barbarians - except they had Chariots.

Students are forced to study that Bhagat Singh, Sukhdev and Rajguru are revolutionary terrorists who were misguided patriots but contributed nothing tangible to the freedom struggle story. If you don't believe that they are terrorists, well good luck to you.

Blame the intellectual mafia who create and protect the perverse system, and not just the civil servants produced by the perverse system.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby habal » 10 Jan 2016 09:58

Each passing day that goes without any credible action from Pakistan's side convinces me that pakistan army is responsible. Our response can be only of one kind.

Let it rip.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 10:09

ramana wrote:KaranM, In a way the four terrorists being the decoys for the other two + two still at large could be the reason why "control' was upset with the four per phone intercepts. The attacking force was already near target while these guys were delayed by the Innova taxi driver action.

I am also thinking that the overall command was a rolling one based on the situation at the time. I am impressed with the NSG Maj Gen who went from 26 Div command to head NSG. Wow!!!! What was his background!
I am happy with Western Command and AOC letting the right people call shots instead of being Nimrods because of 'seenearity'.

The whiners are on the seenearity binge.

Same folks claim the optimum force should be used and when its done want to criticize claiming why was so and so not in charge!!!!


rajanb, its getting tiresome. If you can t contribute anything more than disparage the efforts or demand sources please consider yourself on notice.

Look at ldev he went and found which "markaz' was at play. And could be wrong. But he is contributing. You on the other hand or not.

Either participate by bringing info/data or take it easy.

Not being more harsh because of your seniority.
BTW, despite that Philip gets whacked all the time.


Dear Mr. Ramana,

Just a quick question and a few observations
a) Is BR about politics? Not about what is best for the country, regardless of political affiliations? The word Bhakthi is a generic term, and maybe in the current scenario I should have used an alternative word. I did not use the actual word Bhakth. In retrospect,I am bemused at the reaction it elicited of being a Congi/AAP.
b) About contributions, I have quoted from sources I know and in deference to their past services, not revealed the source, and maybe agreed to their POV. If you have decided I don't contribute. In fact, yesterday, I had lunch with a retired Infantry Officer whose second last posting was at Pathankot. I will not bother to enumerate what he said. because it would be a "lack of contribution".
c) I don't see the relevance of Phillip in your post.
d) I haven't logged in for a long time voluntarily; but If you say I have never ever contributed, when I was more active, then it is you who deserve to be whacked.

Please do ban me and do it forever. Your notice is as worthy news from TOIlet and other such media, print or electronic.

Thanking you and I continue to wish BR the best.

Rajan

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ramana » 10 Jan 2016 10:31

Thanks for good wishes.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby partha » 10 Jan 2016 10:35

Vikram Sood has a good article on Pathankot -

http://soodvikram.blogspot.in/?m=1
New Year's lessons from Pathankot: India must stop being a grieving helpless nation
It is not a war just with guns and bullets but a war of perceptions as well. We have to win both. The enemy has to win just one.

The terrorist attack on Pathankot airbase despite early intelligence warning (a five-day lead as per some reports), has once again revealed gaps in our internal security grid. It has also been reported that the thermal imagery system between two posts at the border had broken down in July 2015{sabotage?}. This had enabled an infiltration by the Lashkar-e- Taiba and the Gurdaspur attack. In the present case, well-armed terrorists had a free run to Pathankot. More than that, they seem to have a fair knowledge of the layout of the airbase.
A new pattern is discernible in recent attacks. Terrorists are being sent in to Punjab to see if the state has become soft and penetrable. In the bargain, there is not even a pretence that this is about Kashmir anymore. It is about India, make no mistake.
Reports clearly point out that Pakistan has spread its intelligence agents all over the country. India is an easy country to move around, settle, acquire identity and vocation and they have assessed that it is easy carry on with their assignments. For every terrorist cell located, for every intelligence agent picked up, there must be 10 others not found. The nexus between heroin and drug smugglers, terrorists, local police, money launderers and politicians is weakening the system.

The war of perceptions

Why do we have to say war is not an option even as they send terrorists across or flash their nuclear arsenal at us? They have opened a second simultaneous front against India in Afghanistan. We should do likewise. We should not forget we have a war on our hands. It may be proxy war, or whatever else we may choose to call it, but it is war by stealth launched by an army which has a Ghazwa-e-Hind (the final battle for India) mindset. It is not a war just with guns and bullets but a war of perceptions as well. We have to win both. The enemy has to win just one
They know that India will only do so much (when Mumbai 2008 happened we did not even recall our High Commissioner nor call off talks) and US will only say so much, usually some anodyne, limp and preachy statement as they have done again on Monday. Pakistan can happily live with this arrangement.
A country can afford to be magnanimous when it is the stronger but some countries do not do that. The United States never forgave Cuba or Iran and it has taken decades for the US to try reconciliation. At this juncture, in Pakistan's ruling circles, any conciliatory move by India is seen as appeasement. No self-respecting country, in their view, indulges in this kind of come-and-hit-me-again pleading.

Media coverage

Why show the photo of a grieving widow on our front pages? This is exactly what Pakistan wants to see and celebrate – a grieving helpless nation. Why not show a commando in action? Similarly, this universal desire to rush to interview families, widows and parents of the dead remains inexplicable. We would honour the dead better by letting the families grieve in privacy.
We invite their so-called experts on our prime time television shows, probably pay them handsomely and thus give them lucrative airtime to bad-mouth us and produce all sorts of alibis. A fine example of self-flagellation. Do we seriously expect them to join us in condemning these attacks?
Our editorials the next morning are very erudite and dispassionate as they advocate the big picture of continuing talks with terrorists. It is perhaps easy to be dispassionate when we do not quite know how it is to sit alone crouched behind a bush on a dark cold winter's night waiting for the unseen terrorist. At least for the present we could have spared a thought for those young men who died for us and put some fire and anger in our editorials.
Apart from the editorials, take the reportage in the press: On January 4, the Times of India referred to the terrorists as fidayeen five times in one report. Have the reporters not been told that terrorists on suicide missions use this term to glorify themselves in the name of Allah while on suicide missions?Why do we want to give them this honour when they are brutal murderers? So is the expression mujahedeen. Let's get it right: They are all terrorists, bar none.
The Indian Express report freely cites a senior officer's comments and those of a military officer. Is there no gag order? There is an imaginative report of how the Research and Analysis Wing or R&AW was able to identify five terrorists. How does the reporter know this? Has some one told him? Has he seen the report? Is it necessary to disclose this? Would it not be better to keep the opposition guessing? It is also described how the terrorists, after entering India, changed into military fatigues. Where and when did they do this? Who saw them? Or is this deduction? Did they really use this route that evening or had they slipped in even earlier? Who escorted them? It should be easy to confirm.

Taking stock

One hears that government would now be conducting an enquiry into this episode to determine how we suffered fatalities and how the terrorists penetrated thus far despite some early warnings. Depending on the source of intelligence, the timing of the report and its accuracy, it can be said that had this intelligence not been received and some measures taken, the attack on the Pathankot Airbase would have been a major disaster. It must also be said that the airbase is huge and it takes time to clear such an area. Having said that, it is important to address our shortcomings.
Our first line of defence at the border had some gaps and weaknesses. The opposition knew about this and, quite possibly, there was complicity as well. The local police should be the first point of call for any such terrorist incident after the border crossing. It should be a well-equipped mobile force which is familiar with its area of operation and able to reach the spot before specialised reinforcements arrive. In India, local police deployments are numerically low (one of the lowest globally as a ratio to population), they are thus thinly spread out. What makes it worse is that the quality of training, equipment and morale are equally low. Over time, police and counter-terror policies have been politicised. For decades now there have been commissions that have urged police reforms. These have been promised but never delivered. Prakash Singh, former chief of the Uttar Pradesh Police and Border Security Force, went to the extent of seeking legal redress for this, but nothing has happened so far.
Terrorists and their mentors use each terror attack also as a probing mission to test defences, reactions and about lessons learnt for the future. The adversary hopes to learn more about abilities not just of the security forces but the administration, politicians and media. There are thus two important issues in such situations. One is the functioning of the command and control of the state. The state must be seen to react with speed and efficiency, to be in charge all the time and on top of the situation. The citizen and the forces want to see that there is no panic or confusion. In the past there used to be meetings of the Cabinet Committee on Security, although this did not guarantee that the image portrayed was that of a state in charge. Secondly, terrain knowledge and target familiarity enables quick and appropriate action. The National Security Guard or the NSG is a fine force but it is unfair to push it into this kind of a situation unless it has performed dry runs. Perhaps Army commandos could have been used.
It is going to be same old story again, I fear. We have had 30 years to put our counter terror practices in position and for a while we succeeded in Punjab, but the last two decades have pushed all these measures away. In the end, it seems like we have been here before as we wait for the next terror attack.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Philip » 10 Jan 2016 15:36

Tx Ramana for that illuminative account of the P'Kot attack. I've highlighted the key part of the analysis.
The reluctance to use the army (on whose orders/advice?) and the inability of the police outfits to do the business.It is clear that babudom wants to keep the IA in barracks,a "Republic Day Parade" army,meant for PR shoots to keep the populace at ease with these glittering spectacles.Since it is India,where we have a million+ men in uniform,the loss of a several hundreds of mil/para.policemen every year is considered much within acceptable loss limits ,no big deal in the eyes of the babus.If the IA is used,then it will get the credit for successful prosecution of jihadis and increase its popularity with the public! I recall a pic in a paper a long time ago where local citizens feted the IA in a public function for quashing some terror attack and defusing a large IED.Theb babus want kudos for their "handling' of such situs,leaving the IA to lick its wounds.You know what Napoleon said about victory and defeat? "Victory has a thousand fathers,defeat is an orphan"!

[quoteThe seeming reluctance to use the Army is indicative of a deeper malaise. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru had febabudom wants the IA to be a republic Day armylt that India did not need any armed forces, that the police forces alone would suffice. He distrusted the armed forces, especially after the coup in Pakistan. The then IB director, B.N. Malik had initially used police forces to man the Ladakh border against China. The Army had been progressively marginalised and sidelined. The disaster of 1962 had mercifully put an end to that marginalisation. The 1965 and 1971 wars had underlined the dire need for a strong and capable armed forces. We are once again witnessing a puzzling marginalisation of the military. The entire internal security role has been allocated to police and Central police organisations. Heavy casualties suffered each year by the CRPF in anti Maoist operations show their severe limitations for this role in terms of equipment pattern, training and organisational ethos. It is unfair to ask them to undertake offensive counter-insurgency (CI) ops in such dense jungle terrain. Nowhere else in the world have the police undertaken such offensive counter-insurgency operations. Yet the Army has been scrupulously kept out [/quote]

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Aditya G » 10 Jan 2016 17:09

Punjab drug menace is a security threat as Pathankot showed
By G D BAKSHI | 9 January, 2016

...

By 2210 hrs, the first lot of 130 NSG troopers had reached the airbase. By 0230 hrs on 3 January, another 80 more NSG men had arrived there. Apparently, these 200 NSG troopers were headed by the IG Ops, an Army Major General himself. Thus the NSG, a Home Ministry force, was selected to be the lead agency for tackling an attack on a Ministry of Defence Air Force base. But why? Why don’t our standard contingency plans survive the first rush of a crisis situation? Standard SOPs envision that the Army (there are two divisions worth located some 10 minutes away at Mamun) must rush in to protect vital Air Force assets, in case they are attacked by the SSG (as they were in 1965) or by the terrorists. So why were they not involved at the very outset? The whole scenario from here onwards became a welter of confusion, with many spokesmen and ministries speaking in different voices.

The seeming reluctance to use the Army is indicative of a deeper malaise. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru had felt that India did not need any armed forces, that the police forces alone would suffice. He distrusted the armed forces, especially after the coup in Pakistan. The then IB director, B.N. Malik had initially used police forces to man the Ladakh border against China. The Army had been progressively marginalised and sidelined. The disaster of 1962 had mercifully put an end to that marginalisation. The 1965 and 1971 wars had underlined the dire need for a strong and capable armed forces. We are once again witnessing a puzzling marginalisation of the military. The entire internal security role has been allocated to police and Central police organisations. Heavy casualties suffered each year by the CRPF in anti Maoist operations show their severe limitations for this role in terms of equipment pattern, training and organisational ethos. It is unfair to ask them to undertake offensive counter-insurgency (CI) ops in such dense jungle terrain. Nowhwre else in the world have the police undertaken such offensive counter-insurgency operations. Yet the Army has been scrupulously kept out of the anti-Maoist operations. In the 26/11 attack in Mumbai, the Army had reached within two hours, but was contemptuously kept out and asked to man the outer cordon and wait for the NSG to fly in. It had taken over 12 hours for the NSG to respond. Army units have hands-on experience of such operations in J&K and the Northeast and are eminently suited to conduct such counter-terror (CT) operations effectively and efficiently. Given their far higher numbers and dispersion all over the country, they can react much faster. At the very least, they are more than capable of protecting their own bases and installations. Is it anybody’s case that in the next war the police will protect our armed forces?


IMHO the good general is mixing up separate issues.

1. Was the NSG the right force to tackle this situation?
2. Who should command the ops?
3. Marginalization of army as viewed by Gen Bakshi.

#1: It is a matter of opinion - this is not a question of competence (albeit the NSG is specialist in HR). In my view the deploying and making the NSG available on ground was the correct decision as that is the remit of the force. Infact they should be deployed in J&K as well where required.

#2 This incident was a multi service contigency. The right person would have been the tri-service Special Operations Division which should have been raised day before yesterday.

#3 It is the Army which did not want to be involved in the Naxalite ops as it was in the hinterland against our own people. Secondly, the Army would not have gone in without AFSPA, which is not applied in these areas. The 26/11 example is also incorrect, as the NSG was the best force to deal with the situ. Even the MARCOS - a military SF in the same league as Army SF - bowed out from the op. Army cannot and should not be called in everytime there is a jehadi strike.

I also find the bhed bhaav with NSG SAGs inexplicable - just because they report to HM. The SAGs are Indian Army by another name just like Rashtriya Rifles. By operating under the guise of a CPO, the Army effectively conducts CT ops without the mess and bad rep that may come from such ops.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Karan M » 10 Jan 2016 18:48

>>I also find the bhed bhaav with NSG SAGs inexplicable - just because they report to HM. The SAGs are Indian Army by another name just like Rashtriya Rifles. By operating under the guise of a CPO, the Army effectively conducts CT ops without the mess and bad rep that may come from such ops.

Its just become an ego issue TBH. And a key reason (apart from WW patterns and GSG-9 modeling) why NSG was under HM, was to ensure IA was insulated from domestic COIN/HRT tasks as was evident post Blue Star.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Raja Ram » 10 Jan 2016 19:34

It would also be pertinent to remember that during an operation where events are fluid decisions are taken based on inputs available and intent at that point in time. The dynamics of the engagement are, more often than not, what decides what Force is to be tasked.

The official statement of events, while understandably short on details of the situation at that time, do provide the clarity that these decisions were taken after due consideration. Suffice it to say, that professional assessment and the end result of complete elimination of terrorists without a single objective of theirs being met is a clear vindication of these decisions.

Analysis post event can never be a substitute for the contextual reference point of a point in time during highly fluid dynamic situation. What is clear however, is that the duration of the engagement could have been more than just a function of the need to avoid a hostage situation and there is a possibility that since the first group of terrorist were cornered in a small area, they could have attempted to get one alive. Even in the case of the second group, once the airmen were cleared, they may have entertained adopting tactics to get one of them alive.

What probably tilted the decision to just blast the hell out of them would have been the assessment of the weapon load available with the terrorists and the amount of damage they could create and the potential they had for inflicting casualties in a CQB with them.

Once that decision was taken, it did not take very long. The building and the terrorist holed up were brought down. What is also clear is that while there is a realization that this was a major attack that was foiled, the fact that despite timely and clear intel input, the breach happened. A professional force such as the Indian Army and IAF will surely do a thorough post event analysis and put in place measures for the future. Such lessons learnt were one of the important reasons why they foiled this attempt.

NSA Doval and team will also do a thorough systems review. At the time of writing this, I can see a much improved response time of NSG, deployment of adequate firepower, proper sealing off of area (the media idiots did not get much access - can be improved), proper coordination between NSA and Crisis Management Group and Operational Commanders. What can improve is the communication part and of course handling of the strategic part. But it is prudent to wait for a while on this front. The GOI has neither been in a rush to accuse Pakistani Govt nor has it said anything to absolve them of anything.

My own assessment is that this was a Pakistan Army sponsored and Paki Personnel run attack. The evidence, though circumstantial, points to this. But then I know only what is available in public domain.

Just a ramble. Take it for what it is worth.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ravip » 10 Jan 2016 20:17

Image

I was and am skeptical about the No. of terrorist that entered base. Because till today there is no official word or confirmation on the body of fifth or sixth terrorist being traced. There was news about fire fight breaking out on the second day of the op after the initial contact had been established. However this firefight on second day started after the thermal image on helicopter found movement of crawling proceeding towards hangar. This lead to heavy fire being directed towards it, to stop the advance of such movement towards the hangar. This heavy fire was mistaken by media outside the base to speculate that more terrorist were holed up in the base. However it now emerges that only 4 terrorist had entered the base and all of them died on first day of the Op itself. The heavy fire reported on second day of the Op was because of movement of stray pigs into the base from nearby civilian area and the same being detected on thermal image of Helicopter. This explains the story why the body of Fifth and Sixth terrorist was not found and even the IG NSG in the press conference categorically stated that they had killed only four terrorist and he did not speculate on being asked about 5th and 6th terrorist, but some other person (in civil),i don't know who he is, claimed of having killed 5th terrorist even as the IG was leaving the press conference. The following link might put to rest the speculation on fifth and sixth terrorist, who were presumed to be crawling towards hangar through the elephant grass, turned out to be stray pigs.

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/india-news-india/pathankot-attack-2-intruders-chased-turned-out-to-be-pigs/

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 20:44

Dear Mr. Ramana,

You have neither extended the courtesy of:
a) Replying to my post except to thank me for my best wishes for BR.
OR
b) Banned me

This is the same malaise which led to the screw up at Pathankot.

Regards,
Rajan

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Hari Nair » 10 Jan 2016 21:03

ravip wrote:I was and am skeptical about the No. of terrorist that entered base. . The following link might put to rest the speculation on fifth and sixth terrorist, who were presumed to be crawling towards hangar through the elephant grass, turned out to be stray pigs....


You seem to have the timelines mixed up. The 5th & 6th terrorists were eliminated on 3rd. They were holed up in an MES structure, which was fired upon with cannons from the BMP. The terrorists ammo & explosives 'cooked' off leading to multiple explosions. They found some charred flesh & bones in two corners of the burnt structure - these have been sent for forensic analysis - to determine that there were two persons there. The false alarm you refer to was on 4th, a day later.

rajanb wrote:Dear Mr. Ramana,
You have neither extended the courtesy of:
a) Replying to my post except to thank me for my best wishes for BR.
OR
b) Banned me
This is the same malaise which led to the screw up at Pathankot.
Regards,
Rajan


Dear Rajan B,
I guess we all need to step back and take a hard unbiased look at the ops.
The fundamental fact remains that the terrorists were NOT able to achieve their mission objective - destroying the aircraft, FOL and ammo dump... refer to what happened in two air bases in Pakistan & Camp Bastion.
You refer to the entire ops as "the screw up"... which is perhaps far too harsh and not supported by the facts.
In my opinion, the main part of the ops that was questionable and needs detailed scrutiny is the lapse(s) in allowing the terrorists (both groups) to enter the base in the first place. I am sure the IAF will do the necessary analysis....

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ravip » 10 Jan 2016 21:14

Hari Nair wrote:You seem to have the timelines mixed up. The 5th & 6th terrorists were eliminated on 3rd. They were holed up in an MES structure, which was fired upon with cannons from the BMP. The terrorists ammo & explosives 'cooked' off leading to multiple explosions. They found some charred flesh & bones in two corners of the burnt structure - these have been sent for forensic analysis - to determine that there were two persons there. The false alarm you refer to was on 4th, a day later.


Yes, you are right.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 21:17

Aditya G wrote:
Punjab drug menace is a security threat as Pathankot showed
By G D BAKSHI | 9 January, 2016

...

By 2210 hrs, the first lot of 130 NSG troopers had reached the airbase. By 0230 hrs on 3 January, another 80 more NSG men had arrived there. Apparently, these 200 NSG troopers were headed by the IG Ops, an Army Major General himself. Thus the NSG, a Home Ministry force, was selected to be the lead agency for tackling an attack on a Ministry of Defence Air Force base. But why? Why don’t our standard contingency plans survive the first rush of a crisis situation? Standard SOPs envision that the Army (there are two divisions worth located some 10 minutes away at Mamun) must rush in to protect vital Air Force assets, in case they are attacked by the SSG (as they were in 1965) or by the terrorists. So why were they not involved at the very outset? The whole scenario from here onwards became a welter of confusion, with many spokesmen and ministries speaking in different voices.

The seeming reluctance to use the Army is indicative of a deeper malaise. India’s first Prime Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru had felt that India did not need any armed forces, that the police forces alone would suffice. He distrusted the armed forces, especially after the coup in Pakistan. The then IB director, B.N. Malik had initially used police forces to man the Ladakh border against China. The Army had been progressively marginalised and sidelined. The disaster of 1962 had mercifully put an end to that marginalisation. The 1965 and 1971 wars had underlined the dire need for a strong and capable armed forces. We are once again witnessing a puzzling marginalisation of the military. The entire internal security role has been allocated to police and Central police organisations. Heavy casualties suffered each year by the CRPF in anti Maoist operations show their severe limitations for this role in terms of equipment pattern, training and organisational ethos. It is unfair to ask them to undertake offensive counter-insurgency (CI) ops in such dense jungle terrain. Nowhwre else in the world have the police undertaken such offensive counter-insurgency operations. Yet the Army has been scrupulously kept out of the anti-Maoist operations. In the 26/11 attack in Mumbai, the Army had reached within two hours, but was contemptuously kept out and asked to man the outer cordon and wait for the NSG to fly in. It had taken over 12 hours for the NSG to respond. Army units have hands-on experience of such operations in J&K and the Northeast and are eminently suited to conduct such counter-terror (CT) operations effectively and efficiently. Given their far higher numbers and dispersion all over the country, they can react much faster. At the very least, they are more than capable of protecting their own bases and installations. Is it anybody’s case that in the next war the police will protect our armed forces?


IMHO the good general is mixing up separate issues.

1. Was the NSG the right force to tackle this situation?
2. Who should command the ops?
3. Marginalization of army as viewed by Gen Bakshi.

#1: It is a matter of opinion - this is not a question of competence (albeit the NSG is specialist in HR). In my view the deploying and making the NSG available on ground was the correct decision as that is the remit of the force. Infact they should be deployed in J&K as well where required.

#2 This incident was a multi service contigency. The right person would have been the tri-service Special Operations Division which should have been raised day before yesterday.

#3 It is the Army which did not want to be involved in the Naxalite ops as it was in the hinterland against our own people. Secondly, the Army would not have gone in without AFSPA, which is not applied in these areas. The 26/11 example is also incorrect, as the NSG was the best force to deal with the situ. Even the MARCOS - a military SF in the same league as Army SF - bowed out from the op. Army cannot and should not be called in everytime there is a jehadi strike.

I also find the bhed bhaav with NSG SAGs inexplicable - just because they report to HM. The SAGs are Indian Army by another name just like Rashtriya Rifles. By operating under the guise of a CPO, the Army effectively conducts CT ops without the mess and bad rep that may come from such ops.


I had a chat with a senior retired Infantry Battalion Commander who is retired. And served there.

For what it is worth. And all I am trying to do is use hindsight for saving lives in the future. If anyone thinks that we have achieved any retribution for a) Past attacks; b) Politicize this issue is in my humble opinion either a Paki troll or a brain damaged idiot.

Initial Intel reports didn't pinpoint anything but Pathankot

Our reaction should have been the following since we had IA Counter Insurgency: IA , AF and DSC together

a) Lock down the base from the outside with a second line of defense inside.
b) Use the Helos/AF to determine the possible flaws in the perimeter for ingress. The first lot of IA to be sent to those drains etc or lights and any other HW out of normal whack. Any civilian building overlooking the AFB to have snipers and soldiers on their terraces.c) Remove all air assets out, which were not required and expensive targets, with a depleted Airforce.
c) Besides the helos as an IR to identify any suspects.
d) Go to the extent of locking down Pathankot in curfew with IA assets/local agencies like police enforcing it. keeping in mind the plausibility of greedy pigs indulging in smuggling, who was present in his time. Naturally keeping the big hearted, residents informed as to the necessity.
e) Alerting all in the vicinity, which could be targets, to ramp up security. Again by the IA, because of the experience available.
f) All military personnel within the base to be armed and the DSC used as a last resort, by distributing HW from the armory.
g) Throw sniffer dogs, Medical corps, and background support into the mix.

Frankly, my reading what I have heard, is disgust. And not related to the current dispensation, but what has been happening over a decade.

he ended by saying "I read news reports that the Army should help clean the Ganga" Which I have also read.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 21:26

The headline is slanted. It is not only about the current Government but this who have ruled us for a couple of decades.
The last jhappad we gave was in 1971, massive.
Then Kargil, but more of a reaction which one can understand and be proud of.
But what worries me now, and it is not political, is this.
Please feel free to correct me. Because it will only make me happier!

http://m.rediff.com/news/interview/modis-pakistan-policy-shows-his-weakness/20160107.htm

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Anurag » 10 Jan 2016 21:34

Not sure why this is surprising to anyone. This has always been the case. But again, everyone expects a solution, an answer or a revenge instantly. Give this government a chance and give it some time. You anyways haven't seen anything for decades from previous governments so not sure why expectations are running high

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby UlanBatori » 10 Jan 2016 21:44

This is Analysis Paralysis. Its very simple really:
1. Pakis live too close to India
2. Pakis will be Pakis
3. Pakis came into kill Indians and damage Indian property
4. Pakis killed some unarmed people
5. Old, retired, unarmed Indian chased, caught and killed an armed Paki
6. Armed Indians turned the other Pakis into sh1ts kebab

Proper reaction:
1) Get Pakis to extradite Masood Azhar whatzit the terrorist, or,
2) at India's time of choosing, India creates a buffer zone in POK with a Brahmos/ Prithvi crater where J-e-M HQ and Masood used to infest.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby geeth » 10 Jan 2016 21:53

Please feel free to correct me. Because it will only make me happier!


Let me try if I can make you happier

1. You are making highly politicized comments, though you state otherway.
2. You are trying to teach the armed forces what their job is ..it is like trying to teach one's dad how to scr#$₩

3. Even if there were mistakes, it would have been identified and necessary corrective action will be taken. That is not a subject for public discussion.

4. Many of the senior retired Generals/Marshals/Admirals are AAPtards and behave worse than Kejru. Entitlement culture is deeply ingrained in them which makes them Modi haters. So take what many of them say with a bagful of salt. Some of them are attention seekers like you.

5. You are jumping up and down to seek.attention...in short you are creating nuisance.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 21:57

Hari Nair wrote:
ravip wrote:I was and am skeptical about the No. of terrorist that entered base. . The following link might put to rest the speculation on fifth and sixth terrorist, who were presumed to be crawling towards hangar through the elephant grass, turned out to be stray pigs....


You seem to have the timelines mixed up. The 5th & 6th terrorists were eliminated on 3rd. They were holed up in an MES structure, which was fired upon with cannons from the BMP. The terrorists ammo & explosives 'cooked' off leading to multiple explosions. They found some charred flesh & bones in two corners of the burnt structure - these have been sent for forensic analysis - to determine that there were two persons there. The false alarm you refer to was on 4th, a day later.

rajanb wrote:Dear Mr. Ramana,
You have neither extended the courtesy of:
a) Replying to my post except to thank me for my best wishes for BR.
OR
b) Banned me
This is the same malaise which led to the screw up at Pathankot.
Regards,
Rajan


Dear Rajan B,
I guess we all need to step back and take a hard unbiased look at the ops.
The fundamental fact remains that the terrorists were NOT able to achieve their mission objective - destroying the aircraft, FOL and ammo dump... refer to what happened in two air bases in Pakistan & Camp Bastion.
You refer to the entire ops as "the screw up"... which is perhaps far too harsh and not supported by the facts.
In my opinion, the main part of the ops that was questionable and needs detailed scrutiny is the lapse(s) in allowing the terrorists (both groups) to enter the base in the first place. I am sure the IAF will do the necessary analysis....


Dear Hari Nair,
Please do not misunderstand me. I am grateful for what could have been a major disaster. But it is not about "bad Luck" which was reported extensively.
Just trying to say, and please disagree with me if I am wrong, that scope for improvement is required. Needed. And as a proud Indian, ACHIEVABLE.
Doesn't need Nastran or Catia to achieve it.
The Ops required the choice of the use of assets available in the shortest period of time.
The Ops showed, is that we DO NOT have a SOP.
The OPs required, and this maybe harsh, that an Indian life to us is precious.
The Ops required,and this is an honest assessment, that we don not use the IA to clean the Ganges. (Widely reported)

BTW, on a different topic, being mostly a lurker, I love your contribution here.

I respect your POV.
My POV comes from the fact, that regardless of the polity, we have never got justice from Bakistan. And I do not know where to turn to.
Cheers.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29151 » 10 Jan 2016 22:03

Thomas Kolarek wrote:
Aditya G wrote:

I pray that behind that somber face is a mind scheming to take revenge. During upa it was easy to simply blame congress and MMS for lack of same. Everyday I wake up with a hope to see newspapers carrying news of the same.

/Rant off

You captured exactly my emotion on this. Every f****** country does take revenge when such thing happens, what is wrong with ours ?

Because We Like To Get F***** In Name of Peace.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 22:06

geeth wrote:
Please feel free to correct me. Because it will only make me happier!


Let me try if I can make you happier

1. You are making highly politicized comments, though you state otherway.
2. You are trying to teach the armed forces what their job is ..it is like trying to teach one's dad how to scr#$₩

3. Even if there were mistakes, it would have been identified and necessary corrective action will be taken. That is not a subject for public discussion.

4. Many of the senior retired Generals/Marshals/Admirals are AAPtards and behave worse than Kejru. Entitlement culture is deeply ingrained in them which makes them Modi haters. So take what many of them say with a bagful of salt. Some of them are attention seekers like you.

5. You are jumping up and down to seek.attention...in short you are creating nuisance.


You have brought polity into the picture. I have clearly mentioned it is across Indian polity.
What does the tard in AAPtard signify? The last few letters of ********? Or a modification of the word turd?
You don't have the guts to call, in your opinion, a spade, a spade?
They are also Indians?
History proves that a country divided along these lines, where polity comes before country, is easily conquered.
Think of country first. Not of AAP, who hardly have a presence in the country's polity. But apparently, gives you a lot of khujli. I don't know why?
And the "please feel free to correct me" was addressed to Hari Nair. Not to you.
Last edited by rajanb on 10 Jan 2016 22:09, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29151 » 10 Jan 2016 22:07

Anurag wrote:Not sure why this is surprising to anyone. This has always been the case. But again, everyone expects a solution, an answer or a revenge instantly. Give this government a chance and give it some time. You anyways haven't seen anything for decades from previous governments so not sure why expectations are running high

Because Our PM Said "Don't Write Pakistan Love Letters".

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 22:15

Kumar Vinod wrote:
Anurag wrote:Not sure why this is surprising to anyone. This has always been the case. But again, everyone expects a solution, an answer or a revenge instantly. Give this government a chance and give it some time. You anyways haven't seen anything for decades from previous governments so not sure why expectations are running high

Because Our PM Said "Don't Write Pakistan Love Letters".


I am intensely hoping for that. And some revenge will not be in the public domain.

However, revenge on our soil, or better defense and drastic, quick reaction, on our soil, is a constructive goal we CAN and should ACHIEVE.

Saving assets is not enough. Indian lives too.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29247 » 10 Jan 2016 22:19

Once upon a time N guru enunciated a simple doctrine on this fora

"Destroy TSP give peace a chance"

Even a tough speaking nationalist is acting like a Man with Rose on Shewani collar and a peace dove about to fly of his hand.

The expectations were set by pre election stand of principle of reciprocity and votes garnered now is the time to show the cards and get results.

Blaming Kuhli wallah, blaming JLN blaming treachery of Rajputs etc is like water under the bridge, what do you intend to do today In the wake of a challenge to your peace ventures?

That's the action we await no?

Saving assets is not victory that was minimum of duty to even chowkidaar


We are missing UAV capabilities we need to address that. Right away not by imports but by developing and customizing the tech to our requirements. NV and bullet proof jackets with built in VHF and UHF comm equipment with SDR comm is absolute must.

Not just a periodic blurb in National TV or Press of just Intent

just do it !
Last edited by member_29247 on 10 Jan 2016 22:26, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Karan M » 10 Jan 2016 22:22

Hari Nair wrote:Dear Rajan B,
I guess we all need to step back and take a hard unbiased look at the ops.
The fundamental fact remains that the terrorists were NOT able to achieve their mission objective - destroying the aircraft, FOL and ammo dump... refer to what happened in two air bases in Pakistan & Camp Bastion.
You refer to the entire ops as "the screw up"... which is perhaps far too harsh and not supported by the facts.
In my opinion, the main part of the ops that was questionable and needs detailed scrutiny is the lapse(s) in allowing the terrorists (both groups) to enter the base in the first place. I am sure the IAF will do the necessary analysis....


+100
Folks who were neither in the ops or planning them or executing them writing reams on what could and should have been done is armchair quarterbacking at its worst.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29151 » 10 Jan 2016 22:25

For Our Politicians And Babu Log . Life of A Solider is not A asset. If Pakistan Can Support terror Openly. then We Can Destroys those Leeches Publicly.
Last edited by member_29151 on 10 Jan 2016 22:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby KLNMurthy » 10 Jan 2016 22:26

rajanb wrote:Dear Mr. Ramana,

You have neither extended the courtesy of:
a) Replying to my post except to thank me for my best wishes for BR.
OR
b) Banned me

This is the same malaise which led to the screw up at Pathankot.

Regards,
Rajan


Excuse my jumping in but I find myself scratching my head to figure out how India's national security services' handling of Pathankot attack (which you have labeled a "screwup") and a spat between yourself and a BRF admin could possibly represent the same, unspecified, "malaise."

If there is a malaise it seems to me it is a mindset that fails to employ elementary methods of professionalism and basic carefulness in choosing words and making an argument, despite (from appearances) being senior in years and experience.

No serious grownup, in writing about a high-stakes topic like the aftermath of Pathankot, will casually use a loaded and judgmental term like "screwup" at such an early stage (in fact never) when the air is filled with confusing, contradictory and biased or plain false information or opinion masquerading as analysis. At least no one who is more concerned about contributing to the reader's understanding than simply advertising themselves as some kind of authority.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 10 Jan 2016 22:28

KLNMurthy wrote:
rajanb wrote:Dear Mr. Ramana,

You have neither extended the courtesy of:
a) Replying to my post except to thank me for my best wishes for BR.
OR
b) Banned me

This is the same malaise which led to the screw up at Pathankot.

Regards,
Rajan


Excuse my jumping in but I find myself scratching my head to figure out how India's national security services' handling of Pathankot attack (which you have labeled a "screwup") and a spat between yourself and a BRF admin could possibly represent the same, unspecified, "malaise."

If there is a malaise it seems to me it is a mindset that fails to employ elementary methods of professionalism and basic carefulness in choosing words and making an argument, despite (from appearances) being senior in years and experience.

No serious grownup, in writing about a high-stakes topic like the aftermath of Pathankot, will casually use a loaded and judgmental term like "screwup" at such an early stage (in fact never) when the air is filled with confusing, contradictory and biased or plain false information or opinion masquerading as analysis. At least no one who is more concerned about contributing to the reader's understanding than simply advertising themselves as some kind of authority.


Please, pardon my English, on the ops. It is a screwup, my English. Nothing else.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29247 » 10 Jan 2016 22:34

I jump too
R Saab is asking r guru for Tolerence of contrarian opinion.

Spinning everything is like JLN saying the best thing to do is send sepoys with canvas shoes to Akaichin and enfield .303 guns of Afghan wars.


It is better to be honest and self critical at times of crisis rather than showing under the carpet.

Ok let's say the assets were saved and he objectives of the terrorists wer foiled! Is that a victory to be staisfied?

Are we going to deter future incursions by a punitive a cation visible to the whole world so that they jump in and tell TSP to back off or they will be Wipe,out?

That is the lament of many a nationalist here not against BRF admins and fellow posters.

Considerable time and energy spent here is in itself an indication of the love of country and its welfare, questioning those intents is not conducive to improvements and idea generation.

Or we may as well,fall in line and say wah wah great job of group think

Added later
Can any one tell me what is the difference of MMsS approach and Na Mo approach at this point to Gurdaspur and Pathankot.
Thanks in advance

JMVHO


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