Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

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rohitvats
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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rohitvats » 12 Jan 2016 11:42

With respect to what the government is doing, please also consider the gentle remark of Shri Manohar Parrikar about 'hurting those who hurt us...' Delivered in a pretty nonchalant and matter of fact manner. No chest thumping, no shouting. Appropriate message delivered by person in charge of delivering it - if it comes to that. I don't think there was anything political or happenstance about it.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby partha » 12 Jan 2016 11:45

rohitvats wrote:With respect to what the government is doing, please also consider the gentle remark of Shri Manohar Parrikar about 'hurting those who hurt us...' Delivered in a pretty nonchalant and matter of fact manner. No chest thumping, no shouting. Appropriate message delivered by person in charge of delivering it - if it comes to that. I don't think there was anything political or happenstance about it.

He did add a disclaimer though - that it was his personal opinion but nevertheless it's encouraging to see DM having opinions like that.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Kashi » 12 Jan 2016 11:51

^^ Among the phone calls that were intercepted, a jihadi called up his mother just before the mission. Surely, there must be some idea of where the call was placed.

Of course, Pakis would come up with the "unregistered numbers" BS.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Yagnasri » 12 Jan 2016 12:09

What this SOB is saying really is we need to continue the same drama without doing anything else.

http://www.firstpost.com/world/talking- ... 80176.html

Google chacha is showing news reports that both the NSAs are meeting in a 3rd country "secretly".

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_29089 » 12 Jan 2016 13:07

Why GOI does not publish the mugshots of the 4 (or five) dead Bhen***ds online and in Paki media with a reward for their identity. I presume the 6th one had his foetus-face blown up.

Or better yet. Have a private crowdfunding campaign to fund and offer reward online to force the gov hand.

Knowing how the inner pakistaniyat works it won't even take Rs 5000 for the mofo's neighbours and or relatives to come forward with info, having seen the food-fights on paki jalsas heck even a free plate of stale biryani will do the trick.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 13:12

rkhanna wrote:A Tactical Success, Pity About the Strategy

“Tactics is about how the NSG and other counter-terror units dealt with the situation on the ground in Pathankot. Tactically, the operation was a reasonable success with the neutralisation of terrorists who had entered the air base. No harm came to the assets on the air base. But there could have been a strategic lapse”, says retd Lt Gen S.Prasad (PVSM).

Gen Prasad’s view has been echoed by many top retired generals who have faced such national security situations while in service. These experienced officers have almost unanimously drawn a distinction between “tactics” and “strategy”. When they talk about a strategic lapse, they are pointing to New Delhi and the political masters who are responsible for devising strategy. The process followed is equally part of the strategy followed in New Delhi.


http://thewire.in/2016/01/11/a-tactical-success-pity-about-the-strategy-19026/

Pathankot Attack Shows the Lessons of the Past Have Not Been Learnt

http://thewire.in/2016/01/06/pathankot-attack-shows-the-lessons-of-the-past-have-not-been-learnt-18665/


I agree with the fine assessment you have posted.

My bets are that we will retaliate, unless Bakistan shocks us out of our socks by cooperating to the extent that satisfies us.

Having said that, I also feel that we may or may not openly disclose the full extent of our retaliation.

To me, the MoD, is a fresh and welcome change from the previous "saint".

The PM's comments about insufficient security at the AFB, are correct. And it is not only at Pathankot.

As far as the strategy is considered, the decline has been gradual and spans at least over three decades.

Shiv, I hope my English doesn't start another flame war or whatever. :-?

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby RajeshG » 12 Jan 2016 13:20

I have to agree with AmberG. I don't have any insider info but basing this on following things..

1. Modi's political USP is his consistently strong & decisive leadership. This has been well understood by now by all Gujjus - both hindus and muslims. Infact gujju-muslims understand this probably more then hindus and they have whole heartedly bought into his program. Eventually whole India will understand this too. But the path that this was achieved was thru consistently strong and decisive leadership over a decade. If you see his early interviews on youtube ( 98/99 ) even before he was installed as a Gujarat CM these qualities stand out.
2. While he is egoistic and likes to prove he is da-man, he makes sure he proves this with action on ground. In a way this bias to prove that he is da-man makes his weakness (ego) into his strength.
3. Stupid things like nobel peace prizes don't matter to him. He knows to be India's PM for multiple terms is way cooler then getting some stupid prize. I would not be surprised if in back of his mind he has images of pakis wearing NaMo masks and yelling modi-modi-modi.
4. Very famously now he had claimed before coming to power that Pakistan needs to be responded in its own language.
5. TSP has long graduated to be a PITA for the whole world.
6. If cashmere has to be given away, only a strong leader from BJP can do it. Earlier it was Advani, now it is Modi.

Given all of this I think Modi has to act, no matter what. He has no choice - otherwise his legacy will be damaged and I think he is acutely aware of that.

Unless pakis shows something hugely demonstrable...

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rkhanna » 12 Jan 2016 13:41

On 26/11 Pakistan’s refused to even accept that Ajmal Kasab was its citizen ... marked change in approach is noticeable ...Have not heard from either Sharif about "nuke" ... but I don't know if this will matter.


Keep in mind in Mumbai the Death Toll was Civilian. i.e a Far higher degree of Moral Guilt on Pakistan's part. This time it was a Military Target. Easier pill to swallow publicly.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Hari Nair » 12 Jan 2016 14:11

In the meantime - invaluable advice from the old fox Pervez Musharraf : India should not over-react to the Pathankot attack:

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ind ... spartanntp

Now that will definitely be convenient for the Pak Army / ISI & their terrorist minions (so called 'Deep State')- they want India to continue to be the 'sponge' that absorbs terrorism, with just mild bleating as reaction...

They obviously are trying to 'dumb down' our Govt and prove that 'Red Lines' for India have not changed, despite our stand...

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby sum » 12 Jan 2016 14:16

RajeshG wrote:I have to agree with AmberG. I don't have any insider info but basing this on following things..

1. Modi's political USP is his consistently strong & decisive leadership. This has been well understood by now by all Gujjus - both hindus and muslims. Infact gujju-muslims understand this probably more then hindus and they have whole heartedly bought into his program. Eventually whole India will understand this too. But the path that this was achieved was thru consistently strong and decisive leadership over a decade. If you see his early interviews on youtube ( 98/99 ) even before he was installed as a Gujarat CM these qualities stand out.
2. While he is egoistic and likes to prove he is da-man, he makes sure he proves this with action on ground. In a way this bias to prove that he is da-man makes his weakness (ego) into his strength.
3. Stupid things like nobel peace prizes don't matter to him. He knows to be India's PM for multiple terms is way cooler then getting some stupid prize. I would not be surprised if in back of his mind he has images of pakis wearing NaMo masks and yelling modi-modi-modi.
4. Very famously now he had claimed before coming to power that Pakistan needs to be responded in its own language.
5. TSP has long graduated to be a PITA for the whole world.
6. If cashmere has to be given away, only a strong leader from BJP can do it. Earlier it was Advani, now it is Modi.

Given all of this I think Modi has to act, no matter what. He has no choice - otherwise his legacy will be damaged and I think he is acutely aware of that.

Unless pakis shows something hugely demonstrable...

Accurate obersvations, IMHO ( i was also having same thoughts about NaMo and his TSP policy)

I believe there will be some serious danda given and will be splashed in newspaper suddenly one day ( and BRF will have a fast moving dhaaga to discuss this) when everyone has forgotten in next few weeks ( just like how the Myanmar ops caught everyone by surprise)

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby shiv » 12 Jan 2016 14:21

rkhanna wrote:Pathankot Attack Shows the Lessons of the Past Have Not Been Learnt

http://thewire.in/2016/01/06/pathankot-attack-shows-the-lessons-of-the-past-have-not-been-learnt-18665/

I can't understand how people write without thinking. One passage is so stupid I must point it out
The actual conduct of the counter-militant operation has brought out its own set of problems. For example, why did the Union government send in the National Security Guards from Delhi, when this is one of the most densely defended areas opposite the Punjab border with troops, experienced in counter-insurgency, all over the place. The NSG have been trained in counter-hijack and hostage rescue operations, but according to Mehrishi’s press conference, the encounter with the main group of militants took place in serrated terrain covered with jungle and scrub where our Army would have been in its element.

If no one has picked up the error here it only shows how people simply read things superficially and take things for granted without understanding the stupidity of the content

The author (Manoj Joshi a moron, it appears) asks why the NSG (trained for hostage situations) were called in when the actual terrain of the encounter where the "Army would have been in its element." How stupid is this guy?

Before the terrorists were discovered they did not announce "We will be found in serrated jungle terrain; we will not take hostages in airforce quarters. NSG not needed"

What was a planner to do? Consult an astrologer who would predict that the terrorists would be in serrated jungle terrain. This sort of crap only disgusts me and the support such articles get reveal only shoddiness and half-attention to detail among those who actually claim to have read it.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_27581 » 12 Jan 2016 14:59

shiv wrote:Before the terrorists were discovered they did not announce "We will be found in serrated jungle terrain; we will not take hostages in airforce quarters. NSG not needed"

What was a planner to do? Consult an astrologer who would predict that the terrorists would be in serrated jungle terrain. This sort of crap only disgusts me and the support such articles get reveal only shoddiness and half-attention to detail among those who actually claim to have read it.


Off Topic and not adding anything so ignore.
Shiv Sir,
1. I have been lurking on this forum after my initial angst and rant to watch the usual/endless rona dhona and self blame. I agree with all your RajeshG's points.

2. You can point 100s of flaws in 1000s of such articles. Heck, even I can see the what's wrong after lurking BRF for years, but the sad fact is that is an article that will get published, read and shared in virtual world. Even sadder fact is there is no one from BRF is taking up "arms" to write a counter article or cogent, incisive article in the first place. Even these Jihadi's have got a guy like Mehdi Hasan who can debate in Oxford proudly defending the islam as religion of love and peace.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Yagnasri » 12 Jan 2016 15:01

Our prestitutes are experts in almost everything. They can say that Akash is nuclear tipped also. One of them in fact even said that.

In fact, they should be asking the Aman ki asha crowd about the attack and how their drama bagi is justified when pakis are attacking India even when they are trying to do make peace with pakis. Naturally they still think NM is responsible almost everything negative.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2016 15:37

IBNlive

New Delhi: Glaring lapses have come to the fore in the probe in the Pathankot Air Force base terror attack. On the one hand there was almost no effective security at the IAF base, said sources, adding that illegal entry was being allowed inside Airbase for as little as Rs 50.

According to the sources, investigation has revealed that locals were allowed to enter Airbase with their cattle if they paid Rs 50.
The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists who stormed the IAF base.

The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists. The call detail examination and technical investigation are on to ascertain who provided inside help. Mobile tower records around the junkyard where terrorist hid are also being examined, sources added.

Meanwhile, Home Minister Rajnath Singh said that there was no reason to doubt Pakistan's commitment in Pathankot attack probe. "Pakistan has given an assurance of action, let us wait and see their response. As of now there is no reason to doubt Pakistan's commitment," said Singh.

The NIA also continues to question Gurdaspur Superintendent of Police Salwinder Singh for the second day on Tuesday. He is one of the prime witnesses in the Pathankot terror attacks case, but is questioned as a prime suspect because of his conflicting statements.

The sources said that even on the second day of his questioning, the NIA is not satisfied with the answers that he gave. The agency is likely to question him again. He may also be asked to undertake a lie detector test.

The NIA had issued summons to Salwinder Singh, who is at present Assistant Commandant of 75th battalion of Punjab Armed Police, to appear before the agency for questioning as there were some discrepancies in his statement to the NIA and Punjab Police.
Salwinder Singh had claimed that he, along with his cook and a friend, were abducted by terrorists on his way back from Panj Pir shrine. Singh has been under the scanner for giving contradictory versions of his story.

Singh, along with his jeweller friend Rajesh Verma and cook Madan Gopal, were allegedly kidnapped by terrorists on the intervening night of December 31 and January 1 before they entered the IAF base in Pathankot and carried out a terror strike on the following intervening night in which seven security personnel including a Lt Colonel of NSG were killed.
Singh was recently shunted as SP (headquarters) of Gurdaspur following allegation of breach of discipline.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Hari Nair » 12 Jan 2016 16:56

Singha wrote:IBNlive
New Delhi: Glaring lapses have come to the fore in the probe in the Pathankot Air Force base terror attack. On the one hand there was almost no effective security at the IAF base, said sources, adding that illegal entry was being allowed inside Airbase for as little as Rs 50.

According to the sources, investigation has revealed that locals were allowed to enter Airbase with their cattle if they paid Rs 50.
The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists who stormed the IAF base.

The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists. .


Also : http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-six-red ... 1452582375

I read these too and was :shock: :shock:
If true, was the AOC (Base Commander) and his administrative staff including the Chief Administrative Officer, Security Officer & CIO (Counter Intelligence Officer) attempting to revive old, decrepit & discarded practices of a long. long by-gone era ???
What's even more disturbing are recurring reports that the NIA is coming around to believe that the terrorists had entered the base in the early hours of 01 Jan itself and had hid in a disused shed (call transcript of a terrorist telling his mother that he had reached a base or something to that effect & the stationary location of two active cell-phones). If so, how come that rope thrown over the wire atop the wall by that group to climb over went un-noticed? Was there no serious ground patrolling on the evening of 01 Jan before sundown??

Like I said earlier, the terrorists being allowed to breach into the base was the MAIN failure and needs microscopic analysis.
Last edited by Hari Nair on 12 Jan 2016 17:23, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby manjgu » 12 Jan 2016 17:15

hair nair..anyone who has lived on a AF base knows all this. bribes are paid to cut grass etc etc. security is non existent except at the main guard room. i am sure there will be some activity for a few days and then everything will be back to normal till the next episode. i am waiting with bated breath till the next incident...

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby chetak » 12 Jan 2016 17:19

NIA focuses on 10-key points in the Pathankot attack


NIA focuses on 10-key points in the Pathankot attack

By Team PerformanceGurus - January 10, 2016

New Delhi

Ten key points top the National Investigation Agency(NIA)’s agenda as it probes the audacious terrorist attack on the IAF base at Pathankot in Punjab that has caused fresh strains in India-Pakistan relations.

The National Investigation Agency, which took over the case on January 4 from Punjab Police, is to uncover the sequence of events from the time the terrorists, believed to be Pakistanis, sneaked into India to the attack.

Some 36 hours of fighting at the base left seven security personnel dead. All six terrorists were also killed.

The key points the NIA is investigating include mobile phone conversations between the terrorists and their suspected handlers in Pakistan, a Jaish-e-Muhammad letter, DNA samples of the terrorists, and their voice record samples.

Other issues being focussed on include ammunition the terrorists carried, their strategy, suspected involvement of locals, the route the terrorists took from the India-Pakistan border, the accounts given by a Punjab Police officer, his friend and cook after their abduction by the terrorists just before the attack, and a Pathankot map found from the police officer’s car, an NIA officer told IANS.

“A 20-member team of NIA, led by an inspector general, has been camping in Pathankot to supervise the investigation. Our focus is on the key points,” the officer told IANS.

An officer of the rank of superintendent of police has been appointed the chief investigating officer of the case, he said.

The NIA took over the case by filing three separate First Information Reports (FIRs).

These were filed in connection with the abduction of Gurdaspur Superintendent of Police Salwinder Singh, along with his jeweller friend and cook, the earlier killing of taxi driver Ikagar Singh, and the terrorist strike at the Indian Air Force station.

1.Another NIA officer told IANS that the lapses by the Border Security Force (BSF) in preventing the infiltration from Pakistan into Bamiyal sector adjoining Gurdaspur in Punjab and Kathua in Jammu and Kashmir were being investigated at the highest level.

2.The failure of Punjab Police, which looks after the security of areas near the border, was also under the scanner, the NIA source said.

3.The NIA is also trying to establish the identity of local residents who provided army fatigues and a walkie-talkie to the six terrorists after they infiltrated into Punjab, possibly on December 30.

4.NIA officer said the DNA samples of the terrorists have been sent to Pakistan for establishing their identity. Voice samples of the terrorists have also been sought from Pakistan.

5.The statements of the police officer, his friend Rajesh Verma and cook Madan Gopal were being thoroughly analysed, the officer told IANS. All of them will soon face lie detector tests.

6.The statement of the officer’s personal security officer, Kulwinder Singh, has also been taken.

7.The officer said the calls made from the mobile phone of the abducted victims were being analysed along with the number belonging to the dead Innova driver, Ikagar Singh.

8.The NIA team on Wednesday took police officer Salwinder Singh to the place near Kolian village, 25 km from Pathankot, from where he was allegedly abducted in his car along with the two others. The NIA team also took the officer to the place where he was dumped by the terrorists and to the spot where his car was found abandoned.

9.The NIA team is looking at what the officer did for nearly three hours after he and the others allegedly left a shrine in Kathua district at 9.30 pm on December 31 — till they were allegedly abducted on the midnight of January 1.

10.The superintendent, who was transferred from Gurdaspur last week, had claimed that he, along with Verma and the cook, were stopped and abducted by four or five heavily armed terrorists near Kolia village. He claimed that his senior officers did not initially take his information on the presence of terrorists seriously.
Last edited by ramana on 12 Jan 2016 20:37, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Added bold. ramana

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby chetak » 12 Jan 2016 17:27

Pakistan’s Deadly Double Game



Pakistan’s Deadly Double Game

Tufail Ahmad

Western journalists are talking of ISIS planning an Armageddon in India. That’s pure exaggeration fed by the ISI

Image

Indian policemen take their positions as their colleagues watch next to a police station during a gunfight in Gurdaspur on 27 July, 2015 (Photo: REUTERS / Munish Sharma)
Indian policemen take their positions as their colleagues watch next to a police station during a gunfight in Gurdaspur on 27 July, 2015 (Photo: REUTERS / Munish Sharma)
After the 27 July terror attacks in Gurdaspur district, India's celebrated former counter-terrorism police officer KPS Gill said: "We need to keep Pakistan aside – now, the attention should actually be on ISIS. I feel Pakistan's state is subservient to ISIS – and the terror attacks in Punjab have undoubtedly been carried out by ISIS." Around the time the terrorists were battling Indian cops in Gurdaspur, American journalist Sara A. Carter was in possession of a 32-page Urdu document supposedly from the Islamic State and penned these words: "(ISIS) has grand ambitions of building a new terrorist army in Afghanistan and Pakistan, and triggering a war in India to provoke an Armageddon-like end of the world." Without disrespect to KPS Gill for his extraordinary counter-terrorism service in the 1980s, his claim must be trashed immediately. Both the interpretations by Gill and Carter are false, but India does face a darker threat.

To grasp the emerging threat to India, return to the evening of 1 December, 2009. Speaking at the US Military Academy at West Point, Barack Obama, still in the first year of presidency, unveiled his military strategy for Afghanistan. Obama announced to deploy an additional 30,000 troops, but from the very first sentence he spoke of "conclusion", "an end to this era of war", "to end this war", "to hasten the day when our troops will leave", "to begin the transfer of our forces out of Afghanistan in July of 2011", and so on. It was decided that after a period of transition, the US and NATO troops would withdraw by the 2014-end, transferring full responsibility to Afghan security forces. The adversaries, the Taliban and their sponsor state Pakistan, too were watching the speech. They began planning their post-2014 strategy which is beginning to materialize now.

In an article in the USA Today, Carter wrote that the document belongs to the Islamic State, but this claim is a big dodge. There are reasons to believe it has been authored by Pakistani military's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), which for all ideological and practical purposes is a jihadist organization. One, the ISIS is not in the practice of delivering its publications to journalists. Two, jihadist groups publish their audio, video and text documents on internet jihadist forums and circulate via social media; and in this case this document did not originate via these means. Three, Carter admits that someone inside Pakistan handed this document, which means someone with a larger interest wanted to ensure its publication in the Western media. Four, Carter says the document came from "a Pakistani citizen with connections inside the Pakistani Taliban", which means it is not from ISIS, as it is ISI not ISIS that has deeper roots among the Taliban factions. Five, senior jihadist media analyst Marwan Khayat, who monitors ISIS-related media sources on a daily basis at the Washington-based Middle East Media Research Institute (MEMRI), says: "I find it very unlikely that ISIS suddenly is talking about causing Armageddon in India when in fact it rarely mentions India or its plans for India in its official publications."

Also, Carter got the document "reviewed by three U.S. intelligence officials, who said they believe the document is authentic based on its unique markings." This intelligence assessment means nothing because the jihadist groups, except for their logos, use an identical language, sourcing content from the Koran, hadiths (traditions of Prophet Muhammad) and early Islamic literature. There is additional reason to believe that Carter's narrative is planted by someone. To illustrate, US media, taking a cue from the White House, continued to teach Americans in recent years that the Haqqani Network and the Afghan Taliban are separate entities. This narrative has been bolstered by leading American newspapers despite the Afghan Taliban issuing several contrary statements, which were compiled by MEMRI over the years.

In November 2011, Sirajuddin Haqqani, refuted US media reports: "We follow directives of the [Taliban] Shura in planning and financial matters. In such a situation, there is no question of running a separate organization, group, or entity [from the Islamic Emirate led by Mullah Mohammad Omar]." A year later, as the American newspapers continued to parrot that Haqqani Network and Afghan Taliban are different, Sirajuddin Haqqani issued another statement in September 2012: "we follow the Emir-ul-Momineen [Mullah Omar] in the framework of Islam, without seeking status or material gain. This is enough to assure the world that our organizational affairs are completely controlled and run by the Islamic Emirate."On 22 September, 2011, Admiral Mike Mullen, the then chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, told the Senate Armed Services Committee: "The Haqqani network acts as a veritable arm of Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence agency." Mullen's and Haqqani's statements confirm that the Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network are the same and part of the ISI.

This Pakistani policy of using jihadist groups has been underway since 1947. In her book Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War, US academic C. Christine Fair writes: "Pakistan's efforts to employ political Islamists, and later Islamist militants in Afghanistan, began as early as the late 1950s." Pakistan's use of jihadists in Kashmir in 1947-48 is well known to Indian readers. The use of jihadists was boosted by a strategy of infiltration as argued by Brig. A. A. K. Niazi, who had served on the Burma front during the Second World War and would go on to surrenderin Dhaka in 1971. Fair quotes Niazi as writing in 1964: "infiltration implies by-passing of enemy posts by relatively small parties which penetrate deep and unseen into the defences and converge at a pre-designated objective"; infiltration "will achieve much better results with far lesser casualties than any other form of attack."Over half a century since Niazi wrote these words, India is dealing with infiltration of Pakistani jihadists in Jammu & Kashmir every week.

The Pakistani state's strategy of using jihadists in Afghanistan, Balochistan and India has always been consistent. It is executed by the ISI. While some groups like Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) inspired ideologically by jihad have followed an independent path recently, most jihadist organizations still serve as the ISI's branches: the Afghan Taliban including the Haqqani Network; Tehreek-e-Taliban Punjab led by Asmatullah Muawiya; Jaish-e-Muhammad under Maulana Masood Azhar who was freed by India in exchange for passengers of the hijacked Indian Airlines plane IC-814; Lashkar-e-Taiba functioning as Jamaatud Dawa and Falah-i-Insaniat Foundation under Hafiz Muhammad Saeed; Hizbul Mujahideen and a number of jihadist groups led by Syed Salahuddin; Lashkar-e-Jhangvi which specializes in anti-Shia killings, especially in Balochistan, and whose members were first to migrate to Syria to work under Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi.

The ISI's post-2014 strategy is unfolding several ways. First, on May 19, it emerged that the ISI signed an agreement with the Afghan spy agency National Director of Security, or NDS. The agreement's objectives included changing the Pakistan narrative in Afghanistan but importantly to allow "joint training and sharing of expertise and experiences", which meant the ISI could get its agents into NDS. Second, the timing of the announcement of Mullah Omar's death is interesting, as it seems the ISI could not figure out what to do with him in the emerging regional situation. Interestingly, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani's website noted that Mullah Omar "died in April 2013 in Pakistan." But the Taliban website, to give clean chit to ISI, wrote: Omar "continued to live in Afghanistan and in the previous fourteen years never for a single day did he leave Afghanistan to visit Pakistan."

Third, a video of nearly a dozen armed Kashmiri youths shot in a forest has appeared. There is a rise of in the number of Kashmiris joining not ISIS but Pakistan-sponsored militancy in Kashmir. Speaking on the Kargil Vijay Diwas –the anniversary of India's victory on July 26, 1999, in Kargil war, arguably the largest jihadist war against India in recent memory – Lt.-General DS Hooda, the chief of the Northern Command, said that more Kashmiris are joining militancy now. He added: "[in 2014] about 60 local recruits, mostly from south Kashmir, and this year, about 30-35 is the figure that we have [of youths joining militancy]... it is a matter of concern when young people have now slowly again started picking up the gun because two-three years back, the numbers were single digit – five, six or seven."Fourth, the 27 July attacks in Gurdaspur are an attempt to take the jihadist war out of Kashmir to the rest of India. The ISI tried to implement this template in recent years through the Indian Mujahideen which has been contained for now.

Fifth, the document Carter got hold of is alleged to be belonging to ISIS, but it is not. It is an ISI document especially as it "seeks to unite dozens of factions of the Pakistani and Afghan Taliban into a single army of terror", as Carter noted. It must be mentioned here that the Afghan Taliban and the ISIS loyalists are currently engaged in fighting, not uniting. In fact the Taliban became so worried about ISIS loyalists' advances in some Afghan provinces that they wrote an open letter on 15 June to ISIS chief Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi urging him not to intervene in Afghanistan, saying: "We already face many conspiracies from the Kuffar[infidels]; your supporters should do nothing that will break up the mujahideen's power."

It is not ISIS but the ISI that is seeking to unite all Taliban factions and have them inserted into the Afghan government through staged talks. The ISI tried this template on 16 April, 2011 when a delegation of "all" top Pakistani leaders visiting Kabul demanded that Pakistani nationals be appointed in Afghan government institutions, as it was done during the 1990s. Some of these jihadist groups will be used against India in coming years. Before Carter, another US journalist who fell to the ISI-engineered narrative is Seymour M. Hersh, who in an article dated May 21, in the London Review of Books, sought to give a clean chit to ISI by observing that it helped the CIA reach Osama bin Laden, arguing in other words that Pakistan army wasn't responsible for hiding the Al-Qaeda leader in Abbottabad. The ISI goes on to a great length to evolve its narrative, one of the most recent attempts being to develop a plot in Burdwan district: to have Bangladeshi Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina's assassination executed from terrorists coming from Indian soil so that India stops blaming Pakistan for the 2008 attacks on Mumbai.

Sixth, Pakistan is engaged in a military operation called Zarb-e-Azb (Strike of the Prophet's Sword) in North Waziristan, which it uses to hoodwink international public opinion. The timing of the operation is important. Onwards from the 30 December, 2009 suicide bombing at CIA's base in Khost, Pakistan withstood all US pressure to act against the jihadists' stronghold in North Waziristan. Sometime from the mid-2010, it looked real that the US could fire drones into North Waziristan. It worried the ISI so much that it moved the Afghan Taliban commanders, especially the Haqqanis, to a new sanctuary in Kurram Agency around September 2010.The ISI had adopted the same tactic in October 2009 by moving Mullah Mohammad Omar from Quetta in Balochistan to Karachi after it feared that some US drones could be diverted to kill him.

Last year as the ISI achieved clarity on its post-2014 strategy, Pakistan army finally launched Zarb-e-Azb, with its strategy being: to fight against the ideologically motivated groups like the TTP and co-opt those from the TTP who were willing to join ISI's network. The first indication of this strategy emerged in September 2014 when the ISI co-opted Asmatullah Muawiya, the Punjabi Taliban chief. Muawiya split from the TTP to join the ISI, saying: "We took this step in the larger interest of Islam and the [Pakistani] nation."Some TTP commanders like Khan Saeed Sajna fell in line. In August 2014, journalist Kahar Zalmay wrote that the ISI engaged Sirajuddin Haqqani to get Taliban commander Hafiz Gul Bahadur into its arm. Non-compliant jihadists are removed, most recently on 28 July when Lashkar-e-Jhangvi chief Malik Ishaq was killed in a staged police encounter; Ishaq wasn't cooperating with ISI and was ideologically inclined to join ISIS.

Christine Fair writes that she was told by a former Pakistani army chief: "Pakistan's generals would always prefer to take a calculated risk and be defeated than to do nothing at all." This is contrast with the Indian civilization. In the recent past, Pakistan tried to implement the template from the Palestinian intifada in Kashmir, using stone throwing as a means of protest. This was a continuation from the 1980s when the ISI emerged victorious in Afghan jihad and planned a mayhem in Kashmir during the 1990s. After the 9/11 attacks delegitimised Kashmir jihad, the ISI created the Indian Mujahideen to take the fight to the heart of India. When President Obama was delivering his speech in 2009, the ISI was planning its post-2014 strategy.


Even in the run-up to 2014-end, the ISI had been lining up the anti-India jihadists. In October 2012, jihadist leader Fazlur Rehman Khalil, who founded the Harkatul Jihad Al-Islami and is now chief of Ansarul Ummah which runs from a mosque in Rawalpindi, the headquarters of Pakistani army, warned: "Kashmir jihad will resurge" like the Arab Spring. In March 2013, Mushtaq Zargar, one of three terrorists freed by India in the 1999 hijacking of IC-814, emerged from over a decade of hiding, warning: "We still run [jihadist] training centres on both sides of the LoC [Line Of Control]: Nothing has changed on the ground"; "India must remember that the U.S. has been defeated in Afghanistan… India will see what we are capable of." On January 26, 2014, Masood Azhar addressed a conference in the memory of Afzal Guru in Muzaffarabad. In September 2014, Ayman Al-Zawahiri announced the establishment of Al-Qaeda in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), which, much like Jaish-e-Muhammad, is the ISI's long arm against India as argued by this writer in these pages earlier. Also, last month, Hafiz Saeed was recruiting potential youths in Syria, in the Burmese refugee camps in Indonesia, and among Palestinians in Gaza.
By August 2015, the ISI is in total control of the following: Afghan Taliban including the so-called Haqqani Network; Tehreek-e-Taliban Punjab; Lashkar-e-Jhangvi, also functioning as Ahle Sunnat Wal Jamaat; the AQIS; Jaish-e-Muhammad; Harkatul Mujahideen; and Lashkar-e-Taiba. The key argument of this essay is: As a state, India faces a jihadist threat emerging from these state-backed actors. Pakistan views itself in a civilizational struggle against India. Fair says the Pakistani “army has long seen itself as the protector of Pakistan's Islamic ideology and has come to frame its conflict with India in civilizational terms”. She adds, "Pakistan's army will insist on action at almost any cost, even that of presiding over a hollow state." Carter is right in one sense: someone is planning an Armageddon in India. As a society, India faces real threat from home-grown jihadists, and yes ISIS is a real threat but it is not coming from Pakistani state, not as yet. The problem with radicalization is this: it could exploit faultlines in Indian society, especially since most Indians treat India as their mistress: cops can be bought off for 50 rupees; politicians can cash in bribes or cause riots; judiciary functions for the rich; Indians look at our poor with extreme contempt and spit right in the middle of roads. To check radicalization, first get the country's rule of law and Indian cohesion right.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Hari Nair » 12 Jan 2016 17:32

manjgu wrote:hair nair..anyone who has lived on a AF base knows all this. bribes are paid to cut grass etc etc. security is non existent except at the main guard room. i am sure there will be some activity for a few days and then everything will be back to normal till the next episode. i am waiting with bated breath till the next incident...


Sorry, I disagree...that is NOT the general rule today in the IAF, or for that matter even half a decade ago in the IAF.
Well run bases take their security seriously.. there is NO question of allowing cattle grazing in the Domestic or (God forbid) the Technical Areas. Grass cutting is a necessary and unavoidable activity where the mechanised cutters cannot operate and its a labour contract. The security staff regulate them, they are frisked & their access areas are controlled.

There are other discrete check mechanisms also built-into the system.. any good base commander with an ear to the ground knows the exact pulse of things around and in the base.

The happenings at this base were an aberration to the normal.
Last edited by Hari Nair on 12 Jan 2016 19:06, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby chetak » 12 Jan 2016 18:38

Dr Arvind Virmani ‏@dravirmani Jan 7

A nation which expects its PM/RM/HM/EAM to deal with 6 terrorists needs to introspect seriously abt its concept of responsibilities/rights.

82 retweets 54 likes

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 18:43

ramana wrote:That Arab poet was right about the "Six blind men of Hindoostan"!

We argue with limited facts and claim our realization is universal.


Which, pray, was the Arab poet?

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 18:55

Hari Nair wrote:In the meantime - invaluable advice from the old fox Pervez Musharraf : India should not over-react to the Pathankot attack:

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ind ... spartanntp

Now that will definitely be convenient for the Pak Army / ISI & their terrorist minions (so called 'Deep State')- they want India to continue to be the 'sponge' that absorbs terrorism, with just mild bleating as reaction...

They obviously are trying to 'dumb down' our Govt and prove that 'Red Lines' for India have not changed, despite our stand...


Totally agree.

Personally, wherever he is, the old fox makes a good living with his mouth.
As a Commando he was a shame to the name Commando. Much to my Hindic relief.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2016 19:05

a true survivor in league of pawarful and laloo

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby member_23365 » 12 Jan 2016 19:24

BJP would've demanded the head of the NSA as well, if NDA/UPA roles were reversed.[/quote]

I differ on this Nikhilji,
BJP would have asked for nead of Def Minster or Home Minister not of NSA. There is something fishy with AAPtards maligning Doval on teetar.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Karan M » 12 Jan 2016 19:34

Nikhil T wrote:Karan,
I think the essence of Christine's theory is also the same! Pak Deep State orchestrating attacks to challenge Indian leadership (read Modi & Doval).


IMO, they will orchestrate attacks to rattle the current Govt and to hit back for the payback on LOC/IB. Doval/Modi challenge is a given.

However, I differ that media/Kangi/AAP are actively a part of Pak Deep State by functioning as their media teams. Indian English Media is heavily anti-BJP as are the Kangi/AAP jokers. In my opinion, this is just politics of Opposition. BJP would've demanded the head of the NSA as well, if NDA/UPA roles were reversed.


If their objectives converge, and they reinforce each other, does it really matter whether they are "actively a part" or just being useful morons?
BTW, BJP would nowhere be in the same league as the gents above as so far, they haven't labeled 1971 a "Congress victory" or been busy doing movie reviews while Pathankot martyrs were being cremated. AAP is anyhow INC-lite, without the dynasty (yet) and megascams (yet). People who go for the latter would go for the former.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby chetak » 12 Jan 2016 19:36

That nonsense about India can't change it's neighbors is just that, nonsense and defeatist talk that brings down morale and closes out many options for us and commits us as a nation to kow tow to a bully.

any Indian politico who has used those lines to justify his actions, is a traitor, in word and thought, if not in deed.

No one is advocating war as an option but why not use other options to make life difficult for the b@stards?? Stop all the visas, train and bus services. Stop beef and livestock exports immediately.

nawaz was never a friend of India, and for him to be portrayed as a bum chum is gross misreporting and propaganda.


http://indiafacts.org/the-fatal-flaw-ni ... -pakistan/

The Fatal Flaw: Nine Points India Ignores about Pakistan

After the Pathankot terror attack we again find ourselves to be on the receiving end…
Divya Kumar Sotti @DivyaSoti

Commentary | 09-01-2016

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After the Pathankot terror attack we again find ourselves to be on the receiving end in another round of proxy war imposed upon us by Pakistan. However, the old narrative on Pakistan continues to be prevalent in India though many presumptions on which it is based simply don’t add up.

Indian national discourse on Pakistan is based on many suppositions, assumptions, conjectures and surmises which do not match up with our past and present experiences. This article is not about making out a case against talks with Pakistan. It is an appeal to be realistic about Pakistan and accept it as it is and deal with it as it is instead of being wishful about it.

Terror during the Talks – It is widely understood that terror attack on Pathankot Air Base happened because PM Modi reopened talks with Pakistan. There is no direct evidence to prove this except an assumption that the Pak Army and its proxies like Hafiz Saeed and Maulana Masood Azhar don’t want good relations between the two countries. If we extend this logic, PM Modi should not have visited Afghanistan either to prevent attack on Indian Consulate in Mazaar-e-Sharif as there is wide consensus in Pakistan against good Indo-Afghan relations. The harsh reality is that such attacks have always happened no matter whether India was talking to Pakistan or not.

Maulana Masood Azhar

Terror attacks do not necessarily happen during India-Pak dialogue to break it. Such attacks happen because war by terrorism is the primary leverage Pakistan has against the Indian State. The game works like this: First, Pakistan tries to push India into talks by harassing it through terror attacks and ceasefire violations.

The peace lobby in India which is unable to contemplate any scenario between absolute war and absolute peace with Pakistan and is ostensibly more concerned about India’s economic development than ordinary Indians raises a hue and cry. Ultimately Indian Government of the day agrees to open talks.

And as the Indian political and bureaucratic leadership sits for negotiations, Pakistan unleashes another deadly phase of terror attacks, this time to extract a deal by inflicting unaffordable collateral damage which essentially involves popular backlash against the Indian government of the day as ordinary Indians find it incapable of protecting human lives and the national pride.

Pakistan thinks that a harassed and helpless Indian Government will yield to at least some of its demands. Even if that does not happen it will contribute to making party in power less popular and hence the Government of the day more insecure and unstable. It’s a nasty game of bullying and subversion.

And Pakistan has had near successes in this game. By harassing Vajpayee and Manmohan Singh governments through these tactics, Pakistan almost got them to endorse the so called ‘Musharaff Formula’ which requires India to give up its claim on Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK) and vacate the Siachen Glacier.

Given Pakistan’s well known record of never honoring written agreements it signed with India, it would have been start of another phase of the Kashmir dispute and not the end of it as once Pakistan legally gets 1/3rd Kashmir, it can still continue the proxy war and fuel internal unrest in the rest of it. Now, Pakistan is trying the same game with the Modi Government as it has been assertively claiming POK and also giving some ear to the plight of the people of Gilgit-Baltistan.


Afghan govt-Taliban peace talks at Murree

Harsh reality is that Pakistan never turns off the terror tap. Talk to Afghans, they will tell you. Last year, Pakistan hosted the Murree talks between Afghan government and Afghan Taliban. These talks were preceded and succeeded by horrific terror attacks in Afghanistan by the Afghan Taliban.

Last month, when Pakistan hosted the Heart of Asia Summit on Afghanistan (which was also attended by India’s Minister of External Affairs Mrs. Sushma Swaraj), its proxy Afghan Taliban carried out majestic suicide attacks on the Kandahar Airport. Afghan Intelligence Chief Rahamatullah Nabil felt so betrayed that he vented out his frustration about Pakistan double games on his Facebook page before resigning from his job.


Fact is that Pakistan wages a relentless sub-conventional war against its financer USA as well as against India and Afghanistan. It is Pakistani way of bullying these countries into accepting the deal they are offering. Pakistanis are confident that one day they will succeed.

We can’t change neighbours– This is the catch line of reopening talks with Pakistan and the rationale of case for uninterrupted dialogue with Pakistan. No I am not making a case for no talks with Pakistan. But the problem is that every time we repeat this line publicly, we actually acknowledge that we either have no other options (and thus helpless before Pakistan’s terror onslaught) or we lack will power to exercise the other options. We go to talks with Pakistan with ‘No Other Options’ placard. So, Pakistan does not even take our polemic seriously; neither when we talk nor when we do not talk.
Then there is another problem with the “we can’t change neighbors” line of thought. It basically lacks strategic, historical and futuristic imagination. We did change neighbors in 1971. And the bigger question we need to ask ourselves is what we will do if our neighboring country itself changes for more bad. Pakistan is becoming a more radicalized society with each passing day; it has a booming small nuclear weapons program (to which terrorists may get access one day) and aggravating secessionist movements. Are we prepared to handle the contingencies if nightmares about Pakistan turn into reality?


Army chief General Raheel Sharif.

Pak Army does not want talks with India- Actually there are times when Pak Army does want talks with India. Wasn’t General Musharraf all the time trying to have talks with India particularly after Operation Parakram? Recently, when PM Modi and PM Nawaz Sharif decided to engage with each other, Pakistan’s military complex was in the line of fire from international media as the San Bernardino attack (first by ISIS ideologues on US soil) was traced back to Islamabad’s Red Mosque which Pak Army had claimed to have cleansed of Jihadists long ago. Soon, international media’s focus got diverted to breakthrough between India and Pakistan. Talks with India also sometimes help Pak Generals to portray themselves as responsible guys. For instance, in the present scenario; it may help them to rescue the proposal of US-Pak civil nuclear deal out of the taboo zone. Generals also look forward to again propose the “Musharraf Formula” to Indian political class as a cure for its Pakistan migraine.
Nawaz Sharif is great friend of India– This myth was floated by Americans in the immediate aftermath of Kargil war to help India get out of intense feeling of betrayal. According to this story (widely assimilated by Indians), Gen Musharraf kept Nawaz Sharif in dark about the Kargil infiltration and he genuinely wanted to pursue peace with Vajpayee.
So according to this theory there was a good guy in Pakistan who did not want to do that to India. Tune into any TV Debate or open any Newspaper, you will be told that Nawaz Sharif wants peace with India but Pak Army is not allowing him to have his way.

This narrative ignores many insider accounts which tried to inform us about Nawaz Sharif’s double games with India. For instance, in his recent book “Where Borders Bleed: An insider account of India-Pak relations”, former Indian Consul General in Karachi, Ambassador Rajiv Dogra described how Nawaz Sharif was aware of the fact that Pakistani soldiers had already occupied Kargil heights when he was welcoming PM Vajpayee to Lahore.

The same book also claims that as Pakistan’s Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif had approved 1993 serial blasts in Mumbai. In 2013, Vajpayee’s Minister of External Affairs, Jaswant Singh told PTI that “I do not think a Prime Minister [Nawaz Sahrif] can remain unaware”. Bruce Riedel who was present in one on one meeting in Washington between President Bill Clinton and PM Nawaz Sharif on July 4, 1999 notes in his book “Avoiding the Armageddon” that when confronted and threatened by Clinton, Nawaz Sharif “reluctantly” agreed to withdraw troops from Kargil, knowing “he would be castigated at home for giving up Pakistan’s territorial gains with nothing to show for it.”

He would later be removed when he tried to shift the blame of Kargil debacle on his Army Chief. Actually, if Pak Army had succeeded in Kargil, Nawaz Sharif would have readily claimed the credit of victory. In an Interview, a Pak Army whistleblower Lt. Gen Abdul Aziz claimed that Nawaz Sharif wanted to know when the Pak Army “gifting him Kashmir”.

Nawaz Sharif was not going to ask a winning Pak army to withdraw from Kargil for the sake of friendship with India. He had to announce withdrawal for multiple reasons: Pak Army was loosing, Indians were threatening to give up self-imposed restraint, Indian Navy had adopted aggressive postures in Arabian Sea, Americans threatened sanctions and Chinese left Pakistan in cold.

Sharif tried to cover up his double game and tried to make General Musharraf and his Lieutenants scapegoats and got toppled in the process. Musharraf blamed Nawaz Sharif of betraying the Pak Army. A victim of his own double game with India became a subject of Indian sympathy.

And here lies another big problem. Nawaz Sharif can’t afford to be seen as yielding to India. He is damn careful about that. After PM Modi’s Lahore trip, Pak Foreign Secretary took great pains to explain how PM Modi invited himself to Lahore.

Recently, Nawaz Sharif wrote an open letter of support to Kashmiri Islamist Asiya Andarabi. Asiya Andarabi has been in news for addressing Hafiz Saeed’s rally over phone. Last month three potential ISIS recruits from India’s Hyderabad were nabbed when they were going to board a flight to Srinagar where Asiya was going to put them in direct contact with ISIS commanders.

Leaving all this aside even if we are to go by the popular narrative that Nawaz Sharif wants peace but is powerless, the next question that naturally crops up is if he is powerless what goods he can deliver? And if is not all that powerless then isn’t he complicit at least by way of omissions?

Civilian versus Military Leadership- According to this popular Indian narrative Pakistan’s civilian and military leaderships have conflicting interests and they are not on the same page on foreign policy issues. However, reality may be a bit more nuanced. Off course no civilian Prime Minister wants himself to be toppled and imprisoned by Generals but that does not make him a great friend of India by default.
Firstly, if the civilian leadership portrays itself to be soft on India, it will be weakening itself.

Secondly, except the 1999 coup whereby Nawaz Sharif was toppled there was no India factor in whatever happened to the civilian leaders of Pakistan. It was mostly their internal political dynamics.

Thirdly, the civilian leadership in Pakistan belongs to the feudal elite class which was at the forefront of Muslim League’s Pakistan movement. These civilian leaders are not at all interested in so advanced a democratic system which destroys the feudal turfs on which they thrive. So, they too have some convergence of interests with the military deep state.

Even a cursory glance at the career of most Pakistani Civilian leaders including that of Late Benazir Bhutto makes it clear that anti-India rhetoric and conspiracies have been their favorite pursuits and they were always counting upon ISI’s proxy war against India to extract something on Kashmir.

However, there is utter confusion in India on this issue. When there happens to be Army rule in Pakistan, we say that it will be easier to deal with a democratically elected government. When such a government comes to power, we say it is powerless and it would have been easier to deal with a General.

More interestingly, the assumption that the civilian and military leaderships are not on the same page is extended only to Pakistan’s policy towards India. You will never hear anyone suggest that PM Nawaz Sharif and General Raheel Sharif are not on the same page regarding Pakistan’s Afghanistan policy, whereby it wages another deadly war by means of terrorism.

Economic relations will help check terrorism– According to a school of thought in India, if India somehow succeeds in upgrading its economic relations with Pakistan, we will get a leverage which will be helpful in ebbing the tide of India centric terrorism emanating from Pakistani soil.
However, before believing all this there is a need to understand the psyche of Pakistan’s rulers and how Pakistan as a Nation sees itself. In his recent exhaustive and seminal work on the Partition historiography, “Creating a New Medina: State Power, Islam and the Quest for Pakistan in Late colonial North India”, Prof Venkat Dhulipala notes that “it [Pakistan] was not just envisaged as a refuge for the Indian Muslims, but as an Islamic utopia that would be harbinger for renewal and rise of Islam in the modern world, act as the powerful new leader and protector of the entire Islamic world and, thus, emerge as a worthy successor to the defunct Turkish Caliphate as the foremost Islamic power in the twentieth century”.

So, Pakistan was primarily conceptualized as a Nation State with a pan-Islamic mission and everything including economics comes next. In 2008, Start for author George Freidman noted that Pakistan is “modern day remnant of Muslim rule over medieval India”.

And what were the Mughal rulers of Delhi trying to do all the time at great cost of human lives and money? They were trying to capture Afghanistan and expand into whatever was out of their domain in India. They failed again and again but never stopped sending new armies to conquer Kabul and south India and ultimately ended up weakening and finishing their own empire.

Pakistan’s rulers see themselves as their proud legatees. They all the time try to capture Afghanistan as well as expand into India through Kashmir. And for that they are ready to afford the unaffordable cost of nurturing the Jihadist forces which are also ruining Pakistan.

The whole world has tried to explain to Pakistani rulers how this war by means of terrorism is ruining them and their nation but they never heed these sane counsels.

If something does not fit into Pakistan’s religious-strategic revivalist theories, its economic rationale doesn’t matter much. If it does even the losses are welcome. So, Pakistan is happy with China despite the fact that Chinese exporters have ruined Pakistani exporters simply because Chinese diplomatic and military backing helps Pakistan in pursuing its dreams and wage proxy wars.

Pakistan sponsors Afghan Taliban and Haqqani Network who kill American soldiers in Afghanistan despite knowing that only Americans give Pakistan economic “grants” (even Chinese have declined) and help it secure finances at International monetary institutions.

Let’s consider the case of TAPI Project about which Pakistan is making all the good noises. Project will not be financially viable unless India joins it and Pakistan suffers from acute energy crisis. But once India joins it and becomes a bit dependent upon supplies, Pakistan can exploit the opportunity through its proxies.

Let’s not forget how Pakistan’s proxies burnt NATO supply trucks passing into Afghanistan through Pakistani territory (for this transit route Pakistan draws bills on NATO) whenever US tried to be tough with Pakistan. This does not mean that India should not explore such economic opportunities but expecting that such projects will give us some leverage over Pakistan which will make it roll back its proxy war against us is expecting too much.

Dossier Diplomacy– After 26/11, India embarked upon what came to be known as the dossier diplomacy which involved supplying Pakistan with evidence about the involvement of Pak proxies and Pak intelligence officers in the 26/11 carnage. It was like giving evidence to a ganglord against his gang members and expecting him to punish them. It placed Pakistani State in the seat of a Judge in a prosecution where it was itself an accused.
Under intense international pressure, Pakistan did institute a trial, arrested some members of LeT and placed some others in preventive detention. Many are already out on bail and trial is most likely to collapse as bizarre things are happening in the trial court.


Ajmal Kasab

For instance, last month, a hostile prosecution witness told the Court that Ajmal Kasab is alive and may be produced in the Court! Pakistan banned Lashkar e Taiba and Jaish e Mohammed after attack on the Indian Parliament.

Today, the recruitment networks and operational capabilities of these terror groups are even more potent and their stock is higher in the Jihadist world. After the Pathankot attack we are again sharing evidence with Pakistan.

PM Nawaz Sharif has promised to PM Modi to take “prompt and decisive” action against the perpetrators of the attack. But it is unlikely that this decisive action will go much beyond then rounding up some Jihadists, placing some under preventive detention and instituting a trial which ultimately may go nowhere.

In the meantime, terror infrastructure will continue to thrive on Pakistani soil as before and terrorist threat to India will continue to persist. What we need to understand here is that counterterrorism is not necessarily about proving things to terror sponsors; it is more about knowing and acting upon what we know.

American and Chinese Pressure– Despite trying both carrots and sticks with Pakistan, US has not been able to dissuade it from supporting Afghan Taliban and Haqqqni Network. So now with Pakistan’s help, it wants to make a deal with these groups whereby the democratic regime in Kabul somehow survives after US troops leave Afghanistan and Jihadist won’t be able to claim that they have defeated another Superpower.
Pakistan enacts a drama and says it will get the deal done but Washington should extract some concessions for it from New Delhi. This is the genesis of much talked US pressure (I would prefer the word persuasion as US-India mutual stakes in international politics are so high now that US can’t pressurize India in the manner it could have done 10 years back).

Indian leadership should ask Americans that if they can’t stop Pakistan from getting their own troops killed through its proxies, how India can rely upon their guarantees. Actually, the occasions on which Americans took our complaints seriously are the ones when we threatened to redress the wrongs done to us instead of obeying the American advice of being good boys.

China’s case is quite similar though a bit more complex. It is fine with Pakistan waging a sub-conventional low intensity war with India. It wants Pakistan to act as a strategic drag which does not allow Indian horse to run too fast. But that’s it.

China knows that if Pakistan does too much mischief and India responds with its full State power either covertly or overtly, Pakistan’s efficacy as a strategic drag may get severely corroded. So, Chinese always refused to help Pakistan in its direct wars with India-be it 1965,1971 or 1999 Kargil war- though during each of these wars Pakistan’s military or civilian leaders traveled to Beijing seeking help. Moreover, unlike Pakistan, Chinese do care about economics and there is lot of economics between India and China.

The limited point is that unless we don’t learn to impose back crises instead of just patiently weathering the ones imposed on us, no one is going to take us seriously.

Proxy War and Pakistan’s Comfort Zone– After defeat in Kargil War, Pakistan’s leaders- both civilian and military- know it in their bones that they can’t even win a limited war with India. So, all of them want talks.
But they simultaneously continue to wage a proxy war against us to bully us into a deal and they carry out this sub-conventional war under the Nuclear Umbrella. US war college-trained generals fully understand that any kind of nuclear adventurism may finish Pakistan but they are also aware that Indians have missed the fact that an umbrella is not meant to hit.

Pak generals want to carry on this proxy war from their low risk comfort zones because they know that we won’t invade their comfort zones. They sponsor a terror attack during talks with India and then say that the dialogue should not be interrupted because of that.

We need to beat them at their own game. We should also respond to a terror attack during talks with both over and covert means and then say that such a response should not interrupt the dialogue as we are just acting against terrorists. As soon as India starts dragging Pakistan’s leaders into high risk zone they will learn to behave themselves. Until we don’t do that we will keep reeling under the Pakistani strategy of bleeding India through thousand cuts.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Hari Seldon » 12 Jan 2016 19:39

>>CNN-IBN NewsVerified account
‏@ibnlive
CORRECTION: We had earlier reported that cattle grazers were allowed entry to Pathankot air base for Rs 50. This has been denied by NIA
Last edited by ramana on 12 Jan 2016 20:41, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 19:41

Hari Nair wrote:
Singha wrote:IBNlive
New Delhi: Glaring lapses have come to the fore in the probe in the Pathankot Air Force base terror attack. On the one hand there was almost no effective security at the IAF base, said sources, adding that illegal entry was being allowed inside Airbase for as little as Rs 50.

According to the sources, investigation has revealed that locals were allowed to enter Airbase with their cattle if they paid Rs 50.
The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists who stormed the IAF base.

The sources added that it is clear that an inside help was provided to the terrorists. .


Also : http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-six-red ... 1452582375

I read these too and was :shock: :shock:
If true, was the AOC (Base Commander) and his administrative staff including the Chief Administrative Officer, Security Officer & CIO (Counter Intelligence Officer) attempting to revive old, decrepit & discarded practices of a long. long by-gone era ???
What's even more disturbing are recurring reports that the NIA is coming around to believe that the terrorists had entered the base in the early hours of 01 Jan itself and had hid in a disused shed (call transcript of a terrorist telling his mother that he had reached a base or something to that effect & the stationary location of two active cell-phones). If so, how come that rope thrown over the wire atop the wall by that group to climb over went un-noticed? Was there no serious ground patrolling on the evening of 01 Jan before sundown??

Like I said earlier, the terrorists being allowed to breach into the base was the MAIN failure and needs microscopic analysis.


And as I have said, the rot has been over the last three decades. And, it is unfair to say, that this rot is contained only to a part of our overall establishment.

To me, the terrorist mafia chose a target, where we had the wherewithal to not only deny them success, which we did, but accentuate our ability to crush anyone who dared.
Why?
What retribution have we delivered for the other attacks? What did we get for 26/11? And frankly, I shudder that our priorities are not focused on the rot in the system.
I wish the answer to our problems were simple. In my old age, I wish to leave the younger generation confident, that in the turmoil all over the world, anyone would think twice before even thinking of messing with us.
Is that unreasonable?

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 19:54

chetak wrote:
Dr Arvind Virmani ‏@dravirmani Jan 7

A nation which expects its PM/RM/HM/EAM to deal with 6 terrorists needs to introspect seriously abt its concept of responsibilities/rights.

82 retweets 54 likes


The Government which has this problem, needs to think, very seriously, on their ability to manage. Their promises of deliverance.
More importantly, their use of the word Jhumla. Don't you think, that Bakistan didn't track that. Two years and were is Dawood?

If as suggested, on some of the posts here, that drug smugglers were instrumental, he was not part of the system.

All terrorism, has to take into account, the connivance of all given shelter by Bakistan.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 20:07

rohitvats wrote:With respect to what the government is doing, please also consider the gentle remark of Shri Manohar Parrikar about 'hurting those who hurt us...' Delivered in a pretty nonchalant and matter of fact manner. No chest thumping, no shouting. Appropriate message delivered by person in charge of delivering it - if it comes to that. I don't think there was anything political or happenstance about it.


I loved it. And I see him, heavy handed, trying to shift the focus from imports to making us independent, in matters of defense.

History has proven, that R&D in defense, has led to improvements in civil life.

An understated remark, In my opinion is deadlier than chest thumping.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby shiv » 12 Jan 2016 20:43

Was this posted?
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/t ... 093707.ece
Contradicting intelligence claims that the terrorists hid inside the Pathankot airbase for more than 24 hours before the attacks began, the Indian Air Force (IAF) is learnt to have told Prime Minister Narendra Modi that they hid in the elephant grass outside the boundary wall.

The IAF personnel reportedly told Mr. Modi that they were able to reach this conclusion as they had used thermal imaging sensors mounted on an UAV (Unmanned Aerial Vehicle) to scan the airbase, but did not capture the presence of any outsider on the premises on the evening of January 1, when the alert had already been sounded.

The terrorists entered the airbase only around 2.45 a.m. on January 2 by snipping the concertina wire, climbing a tree and then using a nylon rope to slide down the perimeter wall.

Official questions IAF claims

A senior official said the claims of the IAF that the terrorists hid outside the Pathankot airbase’s boundary wall on January 1 evening and entered it only on January 2 morning were not logically sound as the thermal imagers the Air Force reportedly used to scan the premises would have captured body images near the wall as well.

Early on January 3 morning, 24 hours after the first contact with terrorists, an alert NSG commando noticed a door on the ground floor of the airmen’s billet bolted from inside, raising suspicion that more terrorists could be hiding. Several hours before this accidental discovery by the commando, security agencies had presumed that all the terrorists had been neutralised, and in New Delhi the Home Minister and Defence Minister, among others, had declared the operation over.

It was on the next day during a combing operation that the NSG commando noticed the locked door. When the commandos tried to storm the room, terrorists hurled grenades, re-starting the engagement that lasted for another 60 hours. The building had to be ultimately blown up to neutralise the heavily armed terrorists. There were five to six airmen on the first floor of the building, and they were swiftly evacuated.
Last edited by ramana on 12 Jan 2016 20:57, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ramana » 12 Jan 2016 20:55

First there is the objective which leads to strategy which leads to tactics.

Objective is what you want to achieve
Strategy means do something to achieve objective by a certain time
Tactics is how you accomplish the strategy
.

So praising tactics and not the strategy shows either a gullible mind or a petty mind.

No one telegraphs the strategy but by the actions, one can discern the objective and the strategy.

MAD objective was to defeat the terrorist mission of attacking the PAFB and destroy the aircraft.

MAD strategy was to
- move the expensive aircraft out of the PAFB
- secure the technical area
- secure the living quarters
- prepare for contingency if PAFB was not the target
- use best available resources for this Garuds, NSG, IA columns, DSC
-- Use NSG commander who was former local divisional commander (26 Division assigned to Pathankot)
- ensure all command structures are in place to remove hurdles : AOC, NSG director and open line to MAD
MAD Tactics was:
- Send UAV, helicopters and C130 with IR sensors to scan the base
- Send Garuds upon first contact along with NSG to confine the terrorists
- Deploy as the situation develops.

Results:
All terrorists confined to 250mx250m are and all killed in 36 hours.
- First contact casualties were five.
--Three were killed during the DSC mess house attack.
---One unarmed DSC soldier took the terrorist weapon and killed him.
- NSG officer killed while dealing with IED terrorist body.


One can go on and on about no strategy etc. but all such criticism is without basis.

Thanks for reading.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ramana » 12 Jan 2016 21:00

ranajan.rao, Rohitvats is working on definitive account. However as you can see all the data is not in.
Besides shiv, rohitvats, Hari Nair, Deejay, Chetak all are providing clarifications to rebut the FUD.
Please spread the clarity.
However others are piling on and admins had to take action.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Karan M » 12 Jan 2016 21:05

Rajan B wrote:The Government which has this problem, needs to think, very seriously, on their ability to manage. Their promises of deliverance.
More importantly, their use of the word Jhumla. Don't you think, that Bakistan didn't track that.


Actually that word was a throwaway term by a BJP functionary who wasn't even part of the Govt. However, its being drummed up 24/7 by its political opponents. Don't you think Bakistan doesn't track that and their perception that the current Govt will be actively prevented by the opposition from doing anything drastic to roll up the terror networks lest it be construed as an attack on minority rights etc.

Two years and were is Dawood?


Ironic.. OTOH editorials claim Dovals focus on Dawood and rolling up all his networks in India is mistaken, taking too much attention. And then you ask where is Dawood.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby rajanb » 12 Jan 2016 21:28

ramana wrote:First there is the objective which leads to strategy which leads to tactics.

Objective is what you want to achieve
Strategy means do something to achieve objective by a certain time
Tactics is how you accomplish the strategy
.

So praising tactics and not the strategy shows either a gullible mind or a petty mind.

No one telegraphs the strategy but by the actions, one can discern the objective and the strategy.

MAD objective was to defeat the terrorist mission of attacking the PAFB and destroy the aircraft.

MAD strategy was to
- move the expensive aircraft out of the PAFB
- secure the technical area
- secure the living quarters
- prepare for contingency if PAFB was not the target
- use best available resources for this Garuds, NSG, IA columns, DSC
-- Use NSG commander who was former local divisional commander (26 Division assigned to Pathankot)
- ensure all command structures are in place to remove hurdles : AOC, NSG director and open line to MAD
MAD Tactics was:
- Send UAV, helicopters and C130 with IR sensors to scan the base
- Send Garuds upon first contact along with NSG to confine the terrorists
- Deploy as the situation develops.

Results:
All terrorists confined to 250mx250m are and all killed in 36 hours.
- First contact casualties were five.
--Three were killed during the DSC mess house attack.
---One unarmed DSC soldier took the terrorist weapon and killed him.
- NSG officer killed while dealing with IED terrorist body.


One can go on and on about no strategy etc. but all such criticism is without basis.

Thanks for reading.


sorry to say this.
But your strategy and tactics are reversed. Your strategy is tactical. Your tactics are strategy.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby shiv » 12 Jan 2016 21:31

shiv wrote:Was this posted?
http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/t ... 093707.ece
There were five to six airmen on the first floor of the building, and they were swiftly evacuated.[/b]

These men should be able to say how long the Pakis were in there because I am not aware of djinn technology in Pathankot, but if airmen were on the 1st floor and terrorists on the ground floor, the airmen must have gone in there earlier

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Amber G. » 12 Jan 2016 21:49

Hari Nair wrote:In the meantime - invaluable advice from the old fox Pervez Musharraf : India should not over-react to the Pathankot attack:

http://www.msn.com/en-in/news/world/ind ... spartanntp


I read that article. Musharraf is sounds pathetic and pitiful. He seems so sad that no one seems to care about his honor & dignity. I feel some pity but not enough - and wish him all the worst.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Amber G. » 12 Jan 2016 22:27

Sorry if posted earlier.. but everyone is trying to make sure Pakistan uses its last warning wisely..
US: [We will give the final chance to show] Pakistan serious about Pathankot probe:.
We [SD spokesman on Kerry's talk to NS] do not talk much in detail about the diplomatic conversations. but "believes" that the Pakistani government is serious about this particular incident, serious about investigating it, serious about trying to work with partners in the region, ..'Pakistan has to do more'
and Kerry will not "define the tone of NS but did notice " since it had made similar promises in the context of Mumbai also ..I am not going to define it as change in tone. I think, we all recognize that more can be done { 8) }


Meanwhile , Pakis news paper are celebrating that India's HM trusts us... :-o
No reason to distrust Pakistan, says Indian home minister

Pakistan government has said it will take effective action. I think we should wait," Singh told reporters on the sidelines of a function here. .. since Pakistan has given the assurance to the Indian government, there should be no reason to disbelieve them so early.

Significantly there are no mention of H&D .. samjota terror .. Pakis are the biggest victims etc.. from Bad of good Sharif.. :-o

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby Amber G. » 12 Jan 2016 22:33

shiv wrote:If no one has picked up the error here it only shows how people simply read things superficially and take things for granted without understanding the stupidity of the content..

The author (Manoj Joshi a moron, it appears) asks why the NSG (trained for hostage situations) were called in when the actual terrain of the encounter where the "Army would have been in its element." How stupid is this guy?

Thanks. These things needed to be pointed out.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analyisis-I

Postby ramana » 12 Jan 2016 22:52

rajanb,

I have worked for long years and know what is what.

Trolling moderator is not advisable. Mostly because it breeds bad behavior and hence needs action.


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