Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

[ramana]

Mukesh Looks like after the S.P, Salwinder Singh statement was passed up the chain, the phone was monitored. Same with his friend's phone.
The "khana kha lena" line was just before the attack.

[Guddu]

To those optimistic souls waiting a response, the next auspicious muhurrat for a response is Jan 27, after Republic day, after Hollande has gone, imho.

[ramana]

Don't want to go Hindu on you all but the sages say hamsa (swan) have "Neer-Ksheera viveka" That is the ability to separate milk from water.
So in the aftermath a lot of reports will emerge mostly water and a few with milk.

So one has to put a low pass filter and switch to high pass filter on the reports to separate the signal from noise.

And even when signal comes thru it should be tested against known facts that the viveka part.




We all have biases and need to be aware they are not filtering more than they should.
To me any signal that disparages forces while ops are going in should be rejected.
It doesn't help to disparage the forces while the operation was going on.

The constant refrain why NSG, when SAG is purely composed of Indian Army and the leader is a serving Maj. General, who incidentally was the 26th division commander based in the vicinity, tells me those giving that feedback are a distraction and are tilting at windmills.


Thanks for listening.

[Amber G.]

Sharif forms high-level team to probe Pathankot links with Pak
India’s and US pressure seems to have worked in Pakistan establishment

Pakistani prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has ordered a high-profile joint investigation team (JIT) to investigate the links of the Pathankot airbase attackers with Pakistan. The assault has thrown into doubt diplomatic talks planned for later this month. Meanwhile, India’s , national security adviser Ajit Doval said on Monday that the foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan won't happen if Pakistan does not act against the Pathankot attack masterminds. The foreign secretary-level talks are scheduled for January 15. The JIT comprises officials from Intelligence Bureau (IB), Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI). In a pre-dawn attack on January 2, a group of heavily armed Pakistani terrorists, suspected to be belonging to Jaish-e-Mohammed outfit, struck at the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. Indian intelligence reports suggested that groups and people in Pakistan planned and executed the strike. India has provided "specific and actionable information in this regard" to Pakistan.

[Amber G.]

BTW, this is 50th anniversary Tashkent!

[KLNMurthy]

Sharif forms high-level team to probe Pathankot links with Pak
India’s and US pressure seems to have worked in Pakistan establishment

Pakistani prime Minister Nawaz Sharif has ordered a high-profile joint investigation team (JIT) to investigate the links of the Pathankot airbase attackers with Pakistan. The assault has thrown into doubt diplomatic talks planned for later this month. Meanwhile, India’s , national security adviser Ajit Doval said on Monday that the foreign secretary-level talks between India and Pakistan won't happen if Pakistan does not act against the Pathankot attack masterminds. The foreign secretary-level talks are scheduled for January 15. The JIT comprises officials from Intelligence Bureau (IB), Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) and Military Intelligence (MI). In a pre-dawn attack on January 2, a group of heavily armed Pakistani terrorists, suspected to be belonging to Jaish-e-Mohammed outfit, struck at the Indian Air Force base in Pathankot. Indian intelligence reports suggested that groups and people in Pakistan planned and executed the strike. India has provided "specific and actionable information in this regard" to Pakistan.

If pakis catch and punish even one random innocent abdul as scapegoat for pathankot, I would consider it a major change in paki attitude and credit Team Modi with it.

So far, it has always been a major echandee issue for pakis to be seen to be doing anything at all to appease the yindoos.

Let's see how this "investigation " plays out.

[ramana]

That Arab poet was right about the "Six blind men of Hindoostan"!

We argue with limited facts and claim our realization is universal.

[saip]

In this whole operation few things intrigues me.

Both sides used burner phones which cannot be traced to any individual.

What is the source for this info? What is the time line for their use? Did they use them before or during the attack? If they have burner phones why did they use SP's phone? What do you mean by both sides? I do not see the reason for people in Pakistan to use the burner phones.

[ramana]

News reports were saying more Ak-47 ammo and another mobile phone found in PAFB.

[partha]

If pakis catch and punish even one random innocent abdul as scapegoat for pathankot, I would consider it a major change in paki attitude and credit Team Modi with it.

Really?! They have played this game before. Remember Lakhvi?

[KLNMurthy]

If pakis catch and punish even one random innocent abdul as scapegoat for pathankot, I would consider it a major change in paki attitude and credit Team Modi with it.

Really?! They have played this game before. Remember Lakhvi?

Well, they haven't really punished Lakhvi have they? I'd like to see if they punish or "encounter" some random abdul to appease India.

I am wondering if part of the lahore visit's motivation was to force Pakistan to show its hand, deprive it of the "India is playing blame-game" excuse.

[Raja Bose]

After reading through now I am convinced and stand corrected.
It is great victory for India against TSP.

I hope GOI issues a first day cover and a stamp in honor of this victory.

Silly of me no to think through and see the light.
Thanks for education to all.
Apologies for not getting it as usual.
Jai Hind

ramana may have the patience of a sage, I don't. Hence, you have outlived your welcome on this forum. You were allowed back into BRF after your personal e-mail pleading to the admins to be let back in and in return promising not to go back to your old habits. Clearly those promises were not meant to be kept and you are back to your old ways. Please go troll somewhere else and while you are at it, get a life.

Note to others: Spinster is being banned permanently from BRF and will never be allowed back. Anybody else exhibiting similar behavior here will join him faster than one can shout 72.

[fanne]

Thanks!!!

[Amber G.]

Sharif forms high-level team to probe Pathankot links with Pak
India’s and US pressure seems to have worked in Pakistan establishment

If pakis catch and punish even one random innocent abdul as scapegoat for pathankot, I would consider it a major change in paki attitude and credit Team Modi with it.

So far, it has always been a major echandee issue for pakis to be seen to be doing anything at all to appease the yindoos.

Let's see how this "investigation " plays out.

Let us wait and see. It is clear to NaMo (and believe India is giving ample indications to US that India is serious) that the onus is now on the Nawaz Sharif -- to demonstrate that it is willing and capable of delivering on Indian demands. If it turns out that if he is really powerless (which is most likely the case), or unwilling - makes no difference, that India will retaliate at a time and place of its own choosing. If Pakis "don't get it" this time (which is also likely) they will pay a price. I think NS is at least getting it to some extent.

Reminds me of time Obama sent big guns like Jones, Panetta and Lute to Pakistan to deliver message to Pak after Times Square Bombing.. which is described in detail in Bob Woodward's book 'Obama's War' (worth reading!). Per Bob Woodward: Pakis were lucky because there was no American causality but the bomb could have easily killed hundreds. If that happened, The US plan was very serious (bombing 100+ places in Pak)...

Anyway when Jones/Panetta warned Zardari .."If God forbid, Shahzad's SUV had blown up in Times Square (and killed a lot of people), we wouldn't be having this conversation..POTUS would be FORCED to do things Pak will not like. Obama wants to make sure you understand that -- if successful the attack is connected with Paki group there are things even Obama can not stop. No one can. This is not a threat, just a statement of political fact"

Zardari replied "Wait a second! if we have strategic partnership that kind of thing should draw us together not divide us"
And " If that happened it does not mean 'we are suddenly bad people or something we are still partners"


Panetta replied "No, POTUS's ONLY choice will be to respond" -- (and response could entail bombing of about 150 targets in Pakistan).. partnership or not"

Anyway Panetta etc were shocked by the "pakiness"..Kiyani in the beginning did similar stunts (he kept repeating "but India is bad" kind of words which US found quite unsettling .. but they finally gave in and did meet US's demands. (Kayani was told the clock is now starting and submit the progress report in 30 days..if US is not satisfied, all bets are off)...

Let us hope that other parties in India, and other nations put the politics aside and show one united front against terrorism.

[Nikhil T]

^^ A lot of the crapping over the current Pathankot ops is sheer political vindictiveness, plain and simple.

India has been losing far too many soldiers to all sorts of border incidents. Were similar claims about competence of IA etc raised during that time? No. The NSA and Modi were not directly involved hence it wasn't easy to target them.

Fact is this was a high profile op, which succeeded in good part because of the proactiveness of current GOI and its NSA - which led to the effective use of the brave folks from NSG, IA, DSC.

That has stuck in the craw of many political chaps who can't beat up on Modi/NSA because no aircraft went pfft. Instead, suddenly concern about the loss of lives in this op and claims that deploying whatever group, doing this, doing that would have made a difference.

At the end of the day all SOPs in the world fail in front of slow decisions. In this case, speedy decisions were made and hence we made it through.

See 26/11 vs Pathankot and the differences couldn't be more drastic. And thank goodness for that.

As much as I support NaMo, Doval etc., I have to say that we have to start analyzing this op objectively - not everyone is out there for political vendetta against the Govt e.g., Lt Gen (retd) Hasnain and AM (retd) Major. While the eventual action by our forces in clearing the terrorists was a success, there are a few failures. If 6 men in army fatigues with 50-75 kg load and assault rifles - can climb 11 feet walls in an fortified base that was put on highest alert and come in 50 odd meters before being detected - that counts as a breach. It's good that Modi is not disputing it and is atleast talking of fixing it with CCTVs, floodlights. Second was we didn't realize that the 6 men had split into two teams after the DSC mess attack, with 2 of them laying low for tens of hours.

People are questioning if the terrorists have succeeded in their objectives - well, have they not jeopardized Modi's plan to restart talks and make his initiative look inconsequential? We need to separate the political vendetta and its counterpart - the political bravado (e.g. by RM's inflicting pain argument today).
Well six days after the attack we are not able to decide if talks will continue or not! Information flip flops that we saw during the Op are now happening with issue of talks and retribution. Christine Fair in her interview today, very crisply lays out the picture of how Pak Army is using these attacks to check India's 1) war preparation and 2) resolve to use force.

'Pakistan has called Modi's bluff'

The Pathankot attack is not a spontaneous response to recent developments; it is a manifestation of Pakistan's national security strategy to pursue its revisionist agenda against India, says C Christine Fair, author of Fighting to the End: The Pakistan Army's Way of War, and an associate professor in the Peace and Security Studies Programme at Georgetown University's Edmund A Walsh School of Foreign Service.

Fair, who earlier served as a political officer to the UN Assistance Mission to Afghanistan in Kabul, tells Bhaswar Kumar in a telephonic interview that there is a consensus within the Indian security establishment that India lacks the offensive capability to defeat Pakistan in a short war.

The January 2 attack on an Indian Air Force base in Pathankot was allegedly carried out by Jaish-e-Mohammed operatives. What are the dynamics between organisations like JeM and Pakistan’s military and civilian establishments?

Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence set up JeM as a competitor to the Lashkar-e-Tayiba), which the ISI had formed earlier.

Before the formation of JeM, three Pakistani terrorists -- Mushtaq Ahmed Zargar, Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh and Maulana Masood Azhar -- were released by Indian authorities in return for hostages taken during the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight IC-814 in December 1999.

Azhar and the two other terrorists, upon their release in Kandahar, were ferried to Pakistan under ISI escort. Within a few weeks, Azhar announced the formation of JeM in Karachi.

LeT and JeM are ideologically distinct organisations. JeM, like the Afghan and Pakistani Taliban, is Deobandi; LeT is Ahle Hadees.

Besides, JeM generally conducts suicide attacks, while LeT conducts high-risk missions where the goal is not to die, but its operatives would still rather die than be taken captives.

These terrorist groups have an army major assigned to them. It is the major's responsibility to ensure the groups' operatives are trained and they get the required resources.

A major can, for example, authorise a small-level attack in Kashmir against an Indian Army unit -- an offensive that does not have major strategic implications.

On the other hand, every attack outside of Kashmir has to have the army chief's imprimatur, given the likely strategic implications -- after all, if the Americans get upset and hold up coalition support funding, it is the army chief who will have to answer.

The Pathankot attack came within a week of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to Lahore and the resumption of talks with Pakistan. Have the terrorists and their handlers achieved their goal by creating a hurdle for the peace process?

If the attack is seen as an attempt to derail the nascent peace process between the two countries, it might be a misreading of the way in which Pakistan employs its jihadi assets to secure its strategic interests in the region.

The attack on the airbase is not a spontaneous response to recent developments. It is simply the latest manifestation of the Pakistani national security strategy to pursue its revisionist agenda against India.

Pakistan has called PM Modi's bluff. Despite all the rhetoric, there is a consensus within the Indian security establishment -- at least among those who draw their conclusions from data instead of speaking from nationalist sentiment -- that India lacks the offensive capability to defeat Pakistan in a short war.

That is important because there will only be a short war between India and Pakistan, due to the presence of nuclear weapons on both sides, if the former responds to such a provocation.

They did it at Gurdaspur, too. The Gurdaspur attack was not in response to the meeting between Modi and Sharif in Ufa. The timing of the Gurdaspur attack is important; it occurred after the reported Indian raid in Myanmar against militants. You will remember the statements issued after the Myanmar raid, warning that all other neighbours of India harbouring terrorists would receive the same treatment.

You will also remember the Pakistani response to these statements. Gurdaspur was really about calling the Indian government out on its statements and bravado after the Myanmar incident.

Both these attacks -- Pathankot and Gurdaspur -- were conducted in and around tier-III cities or small towns. Unlike an attack on a city like Mumbai or Delhi, which will cause a massive uproar and have a galvanising impact on the populace -- the Parliament attack, for instance -- these were carefully calibrated probes to continue to test India's red lines.

We need to see this in tandem with the attack on the Indian consulate in Mazar-e-Sharif. Pakistan has been testing India's red lines within Indian territory and in Afghanistan.

When you say Pakistan has called the government's bluff, are you referring to Pakistan's civilian government or its military establishment?

The civilians are irrelevant in this case. This is all coming from the army. There is no 'rogue' ISI, either. The ISI reports to the Pakistani army chief.

According to reports, Nawaz Sharif has called PM Modi and assured him of action against the persons responsible...

This is absolute dramebaazi. Sharif is an irrelevant actor in these matters.

Aside from military funding and support, consider the fact that Hafiz Saeed's Jamaat-ud-Dawa, the rechristened LeT, gets money from the budget of Pakistani Punjab's government, which is run by Sharif's party.

The government said it would run JuD's educational establishments, so JuD has a line item in every Punjab provincial government budget.

Besides, JeM enjoys political cover from the two factions of the Jamiat ul-e-Islami.

[KLNMurthy]

http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/89423-Pathankot-lessons

Take it for what it is worth but Modi's Lahore visit followed by India's understated diplomatic response to the Pathankot attack seems to have caused alarm and despondency in some paki quarters.

This is ugly. We don’t have to like it to face it. Our arch enemy, all of whose vital state and government organs are geared towards keeping us down and out of the big league, has us on the hook.

The Pathankot attack has given India a unique handle to slam us with. For now facts seem to be on Delhi’s side. So is the collective voice of the international community whose heavy hitters, like the US, China, Russia and Europe want Islamabad to cooperate with its aggrieved neighbour and bring to justice those behind the audacious and suicidal episode.

- See more at: http://www.thenews.com.pk/print/89423-P ... lI4sV.dpuf

Gotta love pakis' sense of their own importance. Anyway, there is a definite segment of RAPEs whining ayyayyo, what to do onlee, they caught us onlee.

[KLNMurthy]

...

People are questioning if the terrorists have succeeded in their objectives - well, have they not jeopardized Modi's plan to restart talks and make his initiative look inconsequential? We need to separate the political vendetta and its counterpart - the political bravado (e.g. by RM's inflicting pain argument today).
Well six days after the attack we are not able to decide if talks will continue or not! Information flip flops that we saw during the Op are now happening with issue of talks and retribution. Christine Fair in her interview today, very crisply lays out the picture of how Pak Army is using these attacks ...

Firstly the christine fair interview / article was already posted on this forum. There was no need to reproduce it fully again. Christine Fair has her own analysis but she has her own POV and bias and she is not the ultimate authority.

But it is interesting what you say above that Modi is not able to make up his mind about the talks. My understanding is that Modi sarkar is taking a wait and see approach, and doesn't mind the process playing out till the last moment, as we saw with the post-Ufa talks.

Do you have other sources of information that lets you say so confidently that GoI is not able to make up its mind? Maybe Modi came and cried on your shoulder that he doesn't know what to do?

We should try and not let our emotions and thoughts be manipulated by the first person who says stuff loudly and with some air of authority. "Question authority" is a good old slogan to keep in mind.

Christine Fair has some useful things to say but she is also a narcissistic loudmouth who was very taken with RAPEs till they gave her the boot.

[Amber G.]

Somehow, I think that this pakiness will not not satisfy India..

ISLAMABAD: The initial findings of the investigation being conducted by Pakistan into India’s Pathankot airbase attack, disclose that the phone numbers provided by India were unregistered, sources told Geo News on Monday.

- See more at: http://www.thenews.com.pk/latest/89544- ... NeoDv.dpuf

[Karan M]

Nikhil T, IMHO you are conflating issues. I'll reply when I have time.

BTW since you brought up Hasnain, here is what the man thinks.

Syed Ata Hasnain ‏@atahasnain53 Jan 9 Gurgaon, Haryana

On other hand this operation revealed Pak Deep State hand to weaken Doval.

And who have been the voices in India loudly calling for Doval to go? The same media, Kangi and AAP jokers who are part of their orgs media teams.

[Anujan]

I actually believe that. Pakis have probably handed out a bunch of phones to sarkari pasand terrorists without collecting personal details.

I am pessimistic about this whole "we will conduct investigation" not because pakis won't investigate but because the attack had state sanction.

This is like Mushy investigating Nuke proliferation.

[shiv]

Take it for what it is worth but Modi's Lahore visit followed by India's understated diplomatic response to the Pathankot attack seems to have caused alarm and despondency in some paki quarters.

The hush hush whispering in Paris and Lahore visit caught a lot of people including terror planners and Paki army unprepared.

After the attack there is not a word from the Darkhas and Turdesais that Hindoootvavadi Modi did not want peace with Pakistan and therefore gave extremists the support they needed in Pakistan. Extremists in Pakistan have received only 0.00001% of the vote in Pakistan's oh so democratic history. Modi has sidestepped that deftly and does not even need to fight a rearguard action. This was predicted by many on BRF when it happened - those threads are still around.

If I break down my observations into parts I get the following

1. If this was done by a group that did not have Paki army backing (as will be claimed) - the Paki army has to prepare for retaliation anyway
2. If it was approved by the Paki army, they have already prepared for retaliation and are waiting
3. If retaliation does not come how long will the alert last?

In a slightly different way the situation that Paki army finds itself in is like questions asked of Indian forces on this thread "Why was everyone not armed and ready?" The answer lies in how long are you going to maintain a state of high alert, cancelling leave, refusing sick-time, getting people to put in overtime. One week? One month? Three months?

On BRF we who are better informed than everyone else on earth know that retaliation will never come, but I speak like a lay person, setting aside my limitless prescience.

How long is the Pakistan army going to brace itself for retaliation? And what kind of retaliation? And when? That retaliation is an option as long as Pakistan can be blamed as guilty or or inaction. Normally by this time Pakistan and the Indian opposition parties would have diluted the focus on Pakistan by blaming Modi or the Indian government. As it is we have had every effort by super smart Indian experts pointing out how little this incident would definitely have been if it was not for the utter incompetence of Indians from border to air base, taking the focus off Pakistan.

Sometimes I think that a whole lot of Indians would have been deeply satisfied to have seen a few aircraft burning in Pathankot because it would prove:
1, Incompetent Indian government (We told you so)
2. Bumbling armed forces (We know better)
3. Pakistan and India are equal victims of terror (Secularism for both sides)
4. We who say all this are so smart (unlike bhakts)

[Amber G.]

^^^ After Pathankot even Pakis are saying that:
If it looks like it’s from Pakistan and sounds like it’s from Pakistan, then it’s probably from Pakistan

Another view from Pak (Dawn's staff member)

. The bright side first. At least nobody’s pretending this didn’t originate in Pakistan. It’s all about actionable intelligence and resolve and whatnot. But it isn’t about denial.

That’s a kind of progress. Remember when Mumbai happened? False flag! Kasab was an Indian, and a Hindu to boot. It’s impossible for a bunch of armed men to get in a boat and sail to Mumbai. More Indian lies!

This time it’s been different. Sure, there was the usual derisiveness when Pathankot began. The smarty-pants logic was quickly trotted out: how can the Indians already know who did it when they weren’t even able to figure it was about to happen?

After all, every good citizen loves a good jihadi. New friends could be regaled with wondrous stories in the corner teashop at night.
But the pantomime seemed half-hearted. If it looks like it’s from Pakistan and sounds like it’s from Pakistan, then it’s probably from Pakistan. The powers-that-be haven’t been keen to push a different story or line of denial.

Pathankot originated here and talk has quickly turned to what we’re going to do about it. It is a kind of progress. Same goes for the other side.

Go over it again. Some chaps hopped across the international border — the international border! — and waged war on a full-fledged Indian military base and India hasn’t threatened to wage war on us.

Instead, Indians are beating up on their government for its incompetence in killing off the attack. And still the Indian government — this Indian government! — hasn’t tried to deflect attention by beating up on Pakistan.

It makes so much joyous sense that you can scarcely believe it. Two mature responses by two sides from whom you expect anything but. Now, to the not-so-good news: nobody really knows what to do about this.

The possibilities are several, but also rather straightforward. The chaps who hopped across the border did it on their own. Mad men, angry and feeling betrayed. Wanting to let the world know they weren’t going to get away with this fake peace business.

Or they had help — someone, somewhere in the state apparatus either helped them or looked the other way while they went about their business. A rogue, ideological operation — Modi is a thug and Kashmir will never be forgotten.

Or it was authorised directly. The damn civilians are up to their tricks again and they need to be put back in their place. Hence an attack on a hard target; hit something soft and there may be all kinds of backlash everywhere.

But those possibilities also don’t really matter. It could be any of them and it still wouldn’t address the original problem: what do you do about the anti-India lot running around the country?

To assume it’s just a matter of will is to miss the point. Even if the will is there, there’s no real thinking been done about it. You can’t exactly NAP your way out of this one.

So far, the best the state has been able to come up with is cold storage. It is a halfway house, an approach forged by necessity in the Musharraf era. It works until it doesn’t — or it’s decided otherwise.

So you have long dry spells. Then, sometimes, you have a Mumbai or a Pathankot or a slight ratcheting up or down of cross-LoC infiltration. Cold storage works as long as the dry spells are long enough and the breaks aren’t too long or too damaging.

But it isn’t a policy. The policy options are two. The first is the one that you hear about occasionally: mainstreaming. Get them into politics, make them run after votes and office and the like and, in time, politics will do its magic.

You can see the lure of it. Politics makes you think you can influence policy while it forces you to shed the more overtly unpalatable stuff. So you can howl about religion and Kashmir being in the country’s DNA, but you can’t run training camps in plain sight.

The problem is that it’s hard to get them to bite. The jihad lot look down on politics and think poorly of democracy. Plus, they don’t want to be part of the mainstream — they want to make bend the mainstream to their will.

The other option is dissolution. The groups that we have out there, get the majority of the rank and file to slip back into society. Make them go back to their families. Give them a job or a stipend. Let society work as a balm.

Respect and honour would come their way. After all, every good citizen loves a good jihadi. New friends could be regaled with wondrous stories in the corner teashop at night.

For the leaderships, dissolution would mean keeping most of what they’ve collected. The money and funds and front offices. But not the literature and the training manuals and the stuff to execute it with. That would have to be deposited with the state.

But dissolution can’t be done by stealth. It would have to be something grand. Not an amnesty — that would be a humiliation. Something akin to a grand jirga — where past sacrifices are eulogised and future peace is welcomed.

See anyone around who can make that happen? Nope.

Which is why we’re still stuck with cold storage. Independent, rogue or directed — it matters only to the extent of what Pathankot was.

Beyond that is the bigger problem — if we ever do come to the point that we have to wrap up Jihad Inc, how the hell are we going to do it? And who’s going to do it?


Twitter: @cyalm

[deWalker]

The real reason why the Paki establishment is at least silent about Indian accusations, it seems to me, is that the US has come in very clearly with evidence to both India and Bakistan, or at least had warned that the attacks were imminent - I suspect that is also partly the reason the NSG were dispatched to Pathankot ahead of the operation.

The military operation by itself was clearly a success - we safeguarded what was important, although at the loss of so many promising, patriotic lives. So what rankles is this fact: that we have to live with this periodic loss of life, even if we are strong enough to protect and defend.

All we can expect is for the Paki establishment to play "defense lawyer" with statements like "that phone was not registered. what is your next evidence?". The Jarnails are fully aware that their status on top of the pole is only because they have provided the appearance that they won't bend to India (however true that is in their history). If they were to ever show a weakening of their position, they are gonzo. Most-green Pakis will make kheema of slightly-green Pakis. And no power that has come to enjoy its status will willingly give it up - power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely.

At best, we can expect some noises about "non state actors" and "establishment is not responsible" while the Jarnails cross their fingers behind their backs as they lie in public. Over time, this episode will be forgotten too - its sad that there is no more mention of Mumbai attack convictions! Just give it 3 more years and we will get back to Secretary-level, Janitor-level, South-Asia-level talks. Pakis just need JeM and LeT to lay low for another 15 months (I mean no terrorist incidents; however speeches and training camps in Bahawalpur and Muridke are just fine).

[vasu raya]

The report of K9s piping video with night vision capable devices is something we can make use of, even along the border

[ManSingh]

http://www.hindustantimes.com/india/con ... LKCDL.html

Quite a colourful cop....

“In their statements recorded by the anti-sexual harassment committee, they alleged that Salwinder used to ask them to call him at odd/late hours. He would offer to protect them in case they needed assistance and also offered to help them retain their positions in the SSP’s office. When one of them rebuffed him, he transferred her and then offered to get her back,” said Jatinder Singh Aulakh, police commissioner, Amritsar, who is a member of the committee.

[ShauryaT]

One of the better reporters...

Why NSA Doval Is Being Unfairly Targeted

The National Security Adviser Ajit Doval too has come in for flak. And that is unfortunate because every resource that was required was mustered much in advance and deployed. A lot of has been made out about his decision to deploy the NSG, the specialist counter-terrorist force. The NSG was deployed with the consent of the Chiefs - General Dalbir Suhag and Air Marshal Arup Raha - keeping in mind a possible hostage situation. When the NSG is deployed, its commandos move with linguists and negotiators to handle hostage situations. Neither the Indian Army nor the IAF can do this job. Also, the operation was led by Major General Dushyant Singh of the NSG, who had also commanded a formation in the same area and was thus aware of the terrain. Issues of command and control which some experts have raised, therefore, appear to be without merit.

Consider also that the two groups of terrorists were confined to a small area - 250 metres by 250 metres - and not allowed to move around too much. It is also perhaps one of the few terror attacks that we were prepared for - specific intelligence helped us identify the targets much in advance and put together a cogent plan on how to thwart them. The fact that sharp actionable intelligence had been gathered is not providential but an indication of our capabilities.

[shaun]

the inferiority complex syndrome is so high in Indian psyche that , we can't even believe that our own intel helped us save the day. First there was report of saudi intel then US intel , then what ?? in due time, pakis too will clamor about giving us Intel !! No one ever question( our DDM ) whether those intel "if given" were actionable. The Indians are intelligent enough to know we are in constant threat from porkis and it proxies .

Pakis were being pressurized by uncle to "act " after hard evidence were provided by us and that is propelling them to action or acting , which ever you may like

[ramana]

deWalker US attention is because they don't know what Modi will do? Not any love of India.

About the SP why was he not drummed out of IPS?

[NRao]

Pathankot Attack: Connecting the Dots

[rkhanna]

A Tactical Success, Pity About the Strategy

“Tactics is about how the NSG and other counter-terror units dealt with the situation on the ground in Pathankot. Tactically, the operation was a reasonable success with the neutralisation of terrorists who had entered the air base. No harm came to the assets on the air base. But there could have been a strategic lapse”, says retd Lt Gen S.Prasad (PVSM).

Gen Prasad’s view has been echoed by many top retired generals who have faced such national security situations while in service. These experienced officers have almost unanimously drawn a distinction between “tactics” and “strategy”. When they talk about a strategic lapse, they are pointing to New Delhi and the political masters who are responsible for devising strategy. The process followed is equally part of the strategy followed in New Delhi.

http://thewire.in/2016/01/11/a-tactical ... egy-19026/

Pathankot Attack Shows the Lessons of the Past Have Not Been Learnt

http://thewire.in/2016/01/06/pathankot- ... rnt-18665/

[Rajput]

That struck me also. How did the "Beta khana kha lena" line or so get captured?

Apparently the number they called was known to Indian authorities, and all calls to that number were being taped.

[partha]

One of the better reporters...

Why NSA Doval Is Being Unfairly Targeted

The National Security Adviser Ajit Doval too has come in for flak. And that is unfortunate because every resource that was required was mustered much in advance and deployed. A lot of has been made out about his decision to deploy the NSG, the specialist counter-terrorist force. The NSG was deployed with the consent of the Chiefs - General Dalbir Suhag and Air Marshal Arup Raha - keeping in mind a possible hostage situation. When the NSG is deployed, its commandos move with linguists and negotiators to handle hostage situations. Neither the Indian Army nor the IAF can do this job. Also, the operation was led by Major General Dushyant Singh of the NSG, who had also commanded a formation in the same area and was thus aware of the terrain. Issues of command and control which some experts have raised, therefore, appear to be without merit.

Consider also that the two groups of terrorists were confined to a small area - 250 metres by 250 metres - and not allowed to move around too much. It is also perhaps one of the few terror attacks that we were prepared for - specific intelligence helped us identify the targets much in advance and put together a cogent plan on how to thwart them. The fact that sharp actionable intelligence had been gathered is not providential but an indication of our capabilities.

Definitely. This is a big win I think. Reports about Barbaria or US passing intel to India seems planted to protect Indian sources.

btw, Pakis have submitted their "initial findings" to Indian authorities and the take away is - "mobile numbers are not registered in Pakistan" is the new "individual is not found in national database"

[Nikhil T]

Firstly the christine fair interview / article was already posted on this forum. There was no need to reproduce it fully again. Christine Fair has her own analysis but she has her own POV and bias and she is not the ultimate authority.

But it is interesting what you say above that Modi is not able to make up his mind about the talks. My understanding is that Modi sarkar is taking a wait and see approach, and doesn't mind the process playing out till the last moment, as we saw with the post-Ufa talks.

Do you have other sources of information that lets you say so confidently that GoI is not able to make up its mind? Maybe Modi came and cried on your shoulder that he doesn't know what to do?

We should try and not let our emotions and thoughts be manipulated by the first person who says stuff loudly and with some air of authority. "Question authority" is a good old slogan to keep in mind.

Christine Fair has some useful things to say but she is also a narcissistic loudmouth who was very taken with RAPEs till they gave her the boot.

Murthy, I'm not even claiming any inside information, just quoting public information. But congrats on your skills to take the discussion off-track. I'll focus on other poster's comments.

[Amber G.]

Meanwhile from what I see it looks different than past such events - time will tell but India/US and others are telling Pak that it is serious, and GoI is having much better luck in putting pressure on Pak.
There are serious talks of sanctions being conveyed to Pak in private (or not so private) channels. NaMo's steely quietness is making them quite nervous. { I heard one US senator saying something like NaMo is the strongest Indian leader he has seen }

I just saw an article by Ashraf Jehangir Qazi (Ex Paki ambassador to US/ China/India) in Dawn, talking about how serious it can be for Pak...

India has provided Pakistan ‘actionable intelligence’ regarding the attack on the Pathankot airbase and demands satisfactory follow-up action by Pakistan if the foreign secretary talks are to start in three days’ time. Our prime minister has assured the Indian prime minister he will do the necessary. {No qualifiers as "India claims etc"}

..The US is urging India not to postpone dialogue. Reports suggest a number of Nato countries consider the intelligence supplied (including mobile phone conversations between the attackers and suspected handlers in Pakistan, a Jaish-e-Mohammad letter, DNA samples of the attackers, their voice record samples, etc) to be credible leads if not conclusive evidence. Pakistan’s international legal obligations require it to follow up on these leads to determine whether or not some elements based in Pakistan were involved in the attack.

Otherwise, the worst assumptions about Pakistan’s international conduct will continue to be made by the international community. A repeat of the Mumbai stand-off would expose Pakistan to ridicule and ignominy. Pakistan could come under immense international pressure, including the threat of sanctions, if it is seen not to be cooperating with India in the hunt for possible suspects.


While suggesting Pakistan may need time to conduct its investigations, the US agrees with India that Pakistan must take the leads seriously. Along with India, the US and Nato countries lean to the view that the attack probably was planned and supervised from Pakistan by elements with a history of association with the intelligence establishment, whether with or without its direct or indirect connivance. After the judicial assassination of Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, Pakistan lost control over crucial aspects of its foreign policy to violent non-state actors backed by the security establishment. The bill for this incredible irresponsibility is still being paid.

It is not yet clear what our military’s attitude was to Modi’s stopover in Lahore. We know that Kargil happened after Vajpayee’s visit to Lahore in 1999; Mumbai occurred after progress in the backchannel talks of the mid-2000s; and now Pathankot takes place after another Lahore yatra. Has our prime minister once again been ‘reined in’ by ‘the boys’ to let him know who is boss? The participation of the COAS in a meeting chaired by the prime minister to consider the information provided by India is to be welcomed. However, it does not necessarily mean the military appreciates the prime minister’s attempts to wrest exclusive control over Pakistan’s India policy.

We do not know whether the prime minister is aware of his longer-term responsibilities towards the people of Pakistan, other than throwing money and concrete about, all of which will have to be paid for by the people. We do not know whether he is interested in summoning the commitment and courage to face down challenges to his political authority and credibility. We do not know whether US admiration for his handling of Pathankot will last. We do not even know the nature of his political calculus.

In Pakistan, the concept of civil-military relations is dubious. It excludes civil society. It provides cover for civilian political delinquency and military political ambition, whether working in tandem or at cross purposes. It has become the antithesis of democracy. It is a principal cause of incoherent, inconsistent and irrational policies on major domestic and external issues, including policy towards India. It provides a convenient context for unprincipled politicians, including leaders, to protest the reduction of political space for the discharge of their ‘democratic responsibilities’ by unelected and undemocratic institutions. Likewise, it provides a convenient pretext for an ambitious security establishment to cite the corruption and venality of politicians as reasons for arrogating to itself a decisive role in matters that lie well beyond its competence and remit. The perfect vicious circle! How do we break out of it?

This is a large and fundamental question that we shall have to find an answer to if Pakistan is to survive and prosper. However, more dangerous than the distortion of civil-military relations is the relentless waging of class warfare in Pakistan. This pits the entire range of political, economic, social and service elites against the mass of ordinary Pakistanis. It has many disguises. Patriotic and religious enthusiasms are among them. So are passionate, romantic and self-indulgent national narratives. These stratagems take shelter under the sacred. But the ends they serve are largely profane and dishonest. Among their offshoots is the narrative of the ‘existential’ threat posed by Indian hostility and hegemony. This, of course, is rooted in history, fact and reality. But, more importantly, it is also part of the arsenal of our privileged and powerful against the aspirations and interests of our deprived and poor.

Ben Okri, the Nigerian novelist and poet, observes that whenever politics is not driven by the dreams of the people it is an “arid and barren machine” designed only for elections. This describes the essence of ‘democratic politics’ in Pakistan where domestic and external policies represent the outcome of power plays; not the shared dreams of its people. If we can set our relations with India in the context of the dreams and interests of our people our policy options will multiply several-fold. But if it remains the preserve of elitist power plays without regard to the interests of the people it will continue to be arid and barren.

If the responses of the rulers of Pakistan convey the message that they are unwilling or unable to control the cross-border activities of anti-Indian and anti-Kabul Jihadis until Kashmir is resolved and Kabul has a ‘friendly’ government, they will do more harm to Pakistan than any enemy could wish for. Nor will they help the Kashmiri freedom struggle one iota. None of this may bother them. They probably regard such concerns as ‘philosophical’, and ‘irrelevant’. Moreover, given our dysfunctional power structure and the arid and barren quality of our ‘democracy’, they may have a point. How Pathankot and many other domestic and external issues of national importance are handled will determine whether or not their point remains regrettably valid.

Source: http://www.dawn.com/news/1232379/pathan ... ower-plays

[Nikhil T]

Nikhil T, IMHO you are conflating issues. I'll reply when I have time.

BTW since you brought up Hasnain, here is what the man thinks.

Syed Ata Hasnain ‏@atahasnain53 Jan 9 Gurgaon, Haryana

On other hand this operation revealed Pak Deep State hand to weaken Doval.

And who have been the voices in India loudly calling for Doval to go? The same media, Kangi and AAP jokers who are part of their orgs media teams.

Karan,
I think the essence of Christine's theory is also the same! Pak Deep State orchestrating attacks to challenge Indian leadership (read Modi & Doval).

However, I differ that media/Kangi/AAP are actively a part of Pak Deep State by functioning as their media teams. Indian English Media is heavily anti-BJP as are the Kangi/AAP jokers. In my opinion, this is just politics of Opposition. BJP would've demanded the head of the NSA as well, if NDA/UPA roles were reversed.

[hanumadu]

Wouldn't it be easy to find the parents of the terrorists, get their dna and show they are the parents living in Pakistan?

[Amber G.]

I have noted the difference this time from Pak's side..What a contrast ..

On 26/11 Pakistan’s refused to even accept that Ajmal Kasab was its citizen ... marked change in approach is noticeable ...Have not heard from either Sharif about "nuke" ... but I don't know if this will matter. ..

[Amber G.]

Wouldn't it be easy to find the parents of the terrorists, get their dna and show they are the parents living in Pakistan?

.. but how do you find the parents if you don't know exactly who they are? (If you found the parents and know they are the parents, you don't need DNA )

[hanumadu]

Wouldn't it be easy to find the parents of the terrorists, get their dna and show they are the parents living in Pakistan?

.. but how do you find the parents if you don't know exactly who they are? (If you found the parents and know they are the parents, you don't need DNA )

Isn't that's what is called intellligence? I am not saying their handlers didn't covered up their traces, but if we have good intelligence in pakistan, it should be possible, no? The obtaining the parents location, DNA by stealth is so that the pukis don't deny they are the parents. Of course, they can still hide them after we locate them but its one step further. Anyway, wasn't Kasab tracked to a village in pakistan?

[Amber G.]

^^^ Kasab was caught alive and talked. This is how his village etc was traced.