Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Guddu » 08 Feb 2016 08:56

"It could be the current PIA unrest
It could be the Peshawar
It could be stalling of some important project by bribing the leaders "

MP is quite clear, the terrorist leaders will have to pay and that we will know after the event. PIA unrest does not count, nor do the other examples. Now if tomorrow the JEM leader has a sudden heartattack, that would count.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Screambowl » 08 Feb 2016 12:03

Guddu wrote:"It could be the current PIA unrest
It could be the Peshawar
It could be stalling of some important project by bribing the leaders "

MP is quite clear, the terrorist leaders will have to pay and that we will know after the event. PIA unrest does not count, nor do the other examples. Now if tomorrow the JEM leader has a sudden heartattack, that would count.


What serves the purpose is exposing Bakis through his nabbing. Which seems impossible as for now. People like Khabeez sayed are mostly used for generating funds , that's all. Rest is planned by the ISI.

The rogue is their MI and ISI. They have the capability to create new Khabeez and Lakhvis, because there is always a backup plan if they fall. Tal e ban has lost many of it's commanders, but this has only stopped them for a while, due to lack of funds, there is always a substitute.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Screambowl » 08 Feb 2016 12:44

Meanwhile Denial-stan back to its routine
http://tribune.com.pk/story/1042367/pat ... volvement/


ISLAMABAD: A team constituted by Pakistan to investigate last month’s deadly attack on an Indian airbase has concluded that there is no substantive evidence to suggest Maulana Masood Azhar, the head of the outlawed Jaish-e-Muhammad (JeM) militant group, ordered or masterminded the assault.

Six gunmen attacked an Indian Air Force base in Pathankot on January 2, leading to a three-day-long standoff that killed seven soldiers. New Delhi had claimed that the attackers belonged to the JeM and they had sneaked in from southern Punjab district of Bahawalpur. The claim was based on mobile communication the Indian spy agencies had intercepted between the attackers and their alleged handlers in Pakistan.

Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif formed a Special Investigation Team (SIT) after India shared the ‘leads’ with Pakistan.

Subsequently, a crackdown was launched in Punjab against the JeM, its headquarters was sealed and dozens of activists detained. The SIT has since been working on the Indian ‘leads’. It is also expected to visit India to study the evidence the Indians have.

Now, The Express Tribune has learnt from officials privy to the SIT investigations that Pakistani authorities have conveyed to New Delhi that there was no substantial evidence that could prove the involvement of Maulana Azhar in the Pathankot assault.

Premier Nawaz, who held two important meetings with the military leadership last week, along with his National Security Adviser Lt-Gen (retd) Nasser Khan Janjua, had given the go-ahead for sharing the SIT findings with India, according to credible sources. Accordingly, Janjua contacted his Indian counterpart Ajit Doval to update him on the SIT probe and to work out possible dates for talks between the foreign secretaries of the two countries.

Pakistan’s civil and military leadership was informed that India wanted Pakistan to implicate Maulana Masood Azhar and his top aides in the Pathankot attack, sources said. The evidence of JeM’s alleged involvement was also shared by India with the United States, the United Kingdom, France and Japan. And New Delhi had somehow managed to get an assurance from these countries that Islamabad would take action against the JeM leadership.

According to sources, the SIT informed the civil and military leadership in a last week meeting that the Indian evidence was insufficient to implicate Maulana Azhar. The SIT had sought further information from India which it refused to share. However, the team did not rule out involvement of some low cadre members of the JeM, saying that too could be established only if New Delhi shared the information they have asked for.

Sources said Janjua told Doval that the SIT was ready to visit to India but New Delhi should not pin high hopes on the team which has already completed his investigations based on the ‘leads’ provided by India. Janjua told the civil and military leadership that India was pushing for the SIT visit before the foreign secretary-level talks in an effort to sooth frayed tempers at home.

On its part Janjua has conveyed to his Indian counterpart that Pakistan was ready to welcome Foreign Secretary Subrahmanyam Jaishankar before or after the SIT visit, sources said. “Now the ball is in India’s court. India will have to take a decision on the foreign secretary-level talks and hence the future of the peace process,” one source added.

SIT Convener Rai Tahir confirmed to The Express Tribune that they have sought more information from India on the Pathankot attack which it has not provided thus far. About SIT’s India’s visit, he said it was for the government to decide.

Published in The Express Tribune, February 8th, 2016.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 08 Feb 2016 13:27

NIA Cant seem to find Forensic evidence of presence of last 2 attackers. !!?!

http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/nia-raises-doubt-over-number-of-terrorists-in-pathankot-attack-57489.html

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Screambowl » 08 Feb 2016 13:53

rkhanna wrote:NIA Cant seem to find Forensic evidence of presence of last 2 attackers. !!?!
http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/nia-raises-doubt-over-number-of-terrorists-in-pathankot-attack-57489.html

They should stop finding the evidences and do the needful. The world runs on thumb rule , not Ram Rajya any more.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 08 Feb 2016 14:34

rkhanna wrote:
NIA Cant seem to find Forensic evidence of presence of last 2 attackers. !!?!
http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/n ... 57489.html

They should stop finding the evidences and do the needful. The world runs on thumb rule , not Ram Rajya any more.


Didnt understand what you are saying. Are you saying that the NIA doesnt know what it is doing or that it doesnt matter if there were 4 or 6 Terrorist. Because AFAIK the first 4 were killed within 6-8 hours into the Op. the Last two took 2 days.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Screambowl » 08 Feb 2016 21:49

rkhanna wrote:
rkhanna wrote:
NIA Cant seem to find Forensic evidence of presence of last 2 attackers. !!?!
http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/n ... 57489.html

They should stop finding the evidences and do the needful. The world runs on thumb rule , not Ram Rajya any more.


Didnt understand what you are saying. Are you saying that the NIA doesnt know what it is doing or that it doesnt matter if there were 4 or 6 Terrorist. Because AFAIK the first 4 were killed within 6-8 hours into the Op. the Last two took 2 days.


how does it matter whether there were two or three or ten? After statement from Pak, it leaves nothing that is worth talks with them, it's a deadlock just like before. These investigations are waste of time and money.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 09 Feb 2016 04:12

rkhanna wrote:
rkhanna wrote:
NIA Cant seem to find Forensic evidence of presence of last 2 attackers. !!?!
http://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/n ... 57489.html

They should stop finding the evidences and do the needful. The world runs on thumb rule , not Ram Rajya any more.


Didnt understand what you are saying. Are you saying that the NIA doesnt know what it is doing or that it doesnt matter if there were 4 or 6 Terrorist. Because AFAIK the first 4 were killed within 6-8 hours into the Op. the Last two took 2 days.



Its odd that it took so long and caused many flaps.

It goes back to Gabbar Singh: "Kitne Aadmi the?"

What if there were no terrorists at all in the second bldg. which is what the above report is implying.
At same time we had a preliminary report from MoD quoted by NDTV that these were very much there.

viewtopic.php?p=1972000#p1972000

No matter its just precaution.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 09 Feb 2016 04:25

I was kidding but looks like Gabbar Singh dialog is being asked in Delhi.

NIA probe being undone by Pubjab Politics :eek:


After Pathankot, How the NIA Probe was Undone by Punjab Politics

Shashi Kant.

As the National Investigation Agency (NIA) quietly but surely lets the former Gurdaspur Superintendent of Police (Headquarter) Salwinder Singh off the hook in its investigation of the Pathankot terror strike, a befuddled security establishment continues to ask: kitne aadmi the?

This silly question on the number of terrorists who entered the Pathankot air base on January 1 is a cruel joke on the rest of the country. Meanwhile, Salwinder Singh has taken on a new assignment in Jalandhar with his faithful cook Madan Gopal in tow. His jeweller friend Rajesh Verma’s nick at the throat, caused by the terrorists, has long healed and he is back in his Gurdaspur store that deals in diamonds and gem stones. And the Taloor mazaar caretaker Som Raj has returned to tend to the humble shrine.

The most important part of the NIA’s case – the alleged involvement of the four men – appears to have been buried, leaving inane questions, such as the number of terrorists who entered Indian territory before sneaking into the air base, to dominate the minds of the agency’s investigators.


Curtains on Dinanagar and Pathankot

Today, the curtains finally appear to have been drawn on the Dinanagar and Pathankot terror attacks. Once again wily politicians have successfully shamed the country by bullying yet another so-called premier national security agency, the NIA. Having politicised the Intelligence Bureau, using the agency to gather political intelligence on rival parties, successive governments have reduced the CBI to a “caged parrot”.

The NIA gave the country some hope after it was established in 2008 in the wake of the 26/11 Mumbai terror strike. But this nascent organisation too seems to have lost its independence, after it was amply clear that it was prepared to let off Salwinder Singh whose conduct prior to the attack on the Pathankot air base was not above board.


A Farcical Investigation

•NIA loses credibility with its role in the Pathankot case being questioned after the agency’s clean chit to SP Salwinder Singh.

•Some NIA officials admit of instructions coming in from the top to give the part concerning politicians-terrorist-police nexus a slip.

With assembly polls due in Punjab in 2017, attempts are being made to project a blemish-free image of politicians belonging to the state.

•Instead of beating around the bush, investigators could have simply dug into the list of top drug smugglers compiled by the police’s intelligence wing in 2007.

Under Pressure

During their visits to Pathankot to probe the national shame, some NIA investigators are learned to have admitted that they were under pressure to bail out certain Punjab politicians and their accomplices suspected to be involved in the cross-border drug trade. They are said to have admitted that their orders were only to probe the ‘Pathankot air base attack’ and to give the part concerning politicians-terrorist (through smugglers)-police nexus, a total go-by.

Needless to say, the investigators’ morale was low. Senior IB and Research and Analysis Wing officials are also known to have visited Pathankot on more than one occasion only to bury the open secrets down in their heavy ‘Secret’ and ‘Top Secret’ files.


Punjab, India’s Drug State

And now, keeping in view the forthcoming state assembly elections scheduled to be held in the beginning of 2017, focus is on to whitewash Punjab and its polity. The recent war of words between a Goa minister and Punjab Deputy Chief Minister Sukhbir Singh Badal, who is in fact the de facto CM, was the trigger. Both of them had accused each other of having the dubious title of being the ‘drug state’.

Consequently, a couple of days ago, the Punjab Police announced that it will adopt a ‘zero tolerance policy to drug menace’. This policy announcement accompanied the news that a 12-year-old child of Sundar Nagar in Hoshiarpur district had killed his 10-year-old friend because the latter had allegedly not been ‘judiciously and equally’ sharing an inhaling drug which the duo would go dutch to purchase.

In Punjab, drug dealing or buying narcotics is no big deal. Of course, it is a different thing that neither the state government nor its machinery, the police included, is ‘aware’ of this open secret.


‘Mapping’ is Sukhbir’s Favourite Word

Under this new anti-drug policy, the Punjab Police intends to ‘map’ the entire state to ascertain the areas where drugs might be available. Having known Sukhbir well, I can say with certainty that instruction came from him since “mapping” is one of his favourite words.

The million dollar question, however, is why the Punjab government and the police are not familiar with a menace known to the rest of the world. They could have simply dug into the list of top drug smugglers which was compiled by the police’s intelligence wing in 2007, under my directions. They could have taken strong action and heads including that of some ministers, would have rolled.

After Dinanagar in July last year and Pathankot last month, the Akali Dal allegedly pressured its alliance partner to desist from exposing the nexus that thrives and survives because of the drug trade. This brought shame to the NIA and fueled resentment among a small but sincere and honest bunch of officers.

(The writer is a former additional director general, Punjab Police)



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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 09 Feb 2016 04:26

LINK

Removal of encroachments near military installations

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 09 Feb 2016 10:25

I was kidding but looks like Gabbar Singh dialog is being asked in Delhi.

NIA probe being undone by Pubjab Politics :eek:


If this is true then it speaks volumes on our perception of this government.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 09 Feb 2016 10:32

ow does it matter whether there were two or three or ten? After statement from Pak, it leaves nothing that is worth talks with them, it's a deadlock just like before. These investigations are waste of time and money.


Hmm. As a tax payer I would really like to know why the Military Claimed 6 Men if everything is pointing to otherwise. OR if there were 6 men why the NIA/Government is saying 4.

If you dont think 2 days and 2 "missing" terrorist is critical to a postmortem of the operation we as a country are not fit to go after Pakistan in any shape or capacity. (militarily / Politically)

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Aditya G » 09 Feb 2016 11:10

rkhanna wrote:
I was kidding but looks like Gabbar Singh dialog is being asked in Delhi.

NIA probe being undone by Pubjab Politics :eek:


If this is true then it speaks volumes on our perception of this government.


The article is a hit job. NIA should only investigate the terrorism aspect of it. There are agencies such as the Narcotics Control Bureau who should look at the drugs aspect of the situation in Punjab.

Obviously there is a grand failure in Punjab - but NIA should not be responsible for solving it.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 09 Feb 2016 13:32

The article is a hit job. NIA should only investigate the terrorism aspect of it. There are agencies such as the Narcotics Control Bureau who should look at the drugs aspect of the situation in Punjab.

Obviously there is a grand failure in Punjab - but NIA should not be responsible for solving it.


huh? the NIA Cant/shoudlnt investigate every angle of a terrorist breach? The NCB should def look at the drug angle for the larger Drug Issue in Punjab. But why the hell should the NIA not investigate every single piece of the puzzle that lead to 4-6 men breaching an IAF installation?!

Secondly if the "drug issue" and the Terror Nexus is Symbiotic then it can no longer be a Pure NCB responsibility. They simply dont have the capability.

Lastly - Have we reached a stage where everything we disagree with or cant digest is a "hit Job" and swept under a rug?

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Screambowl » 09 Feb 2016 19:10

rkhanna wrote:Hmm. As a tax payer I would really like to know why the Military Claimed 6 Men if everything is pointing to otherwise. OR if there were 6 men why the NIA/Government is saying 4.
If you dont think 2 days and 2 "missing" terrorist is critical to a postmortem of the operation we as a country are not fit to go after Pakistan in any shape or capacity. (militarily / Politically)


The diplomatic handling of the situation has failed and it will fail because if you ask any officer serving in R&AW or IB, they will say evidences have least value. Agencies on both sides know the X-Ray of the situation. What is important is the cooperation, which the government seeks from Pakistan.

And Pakistan is not ready to nab the responsible people and they will not in the near future also, as they will deny the authenticity and class of evidences provided. So as a tax payer, we can only expect GoI to formulate a better policy and bring Pakistan on the verges of cooperation.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 10 Feb 2016 09:44

The diplomatic handling of the situation has failed and it will fail because if you ask any officer serving in R&AW or IB, they will say evidences have least value. Agencies on both sides know the X-Ray of the situation. What is important is the cooperation, which the government seeks from Pakistan.

And Pakistan is not ready to nab the responsible people and they will not in the near future also, as they will deny the authenticity and class of evidences provided. So as a tax payer, we can only expect GoI to formulate a better policy and bring Pakistan on the verges of cooperation.


Sir, the purpose of this Evidence is not to Give proof against the Perpetrators. Its to Corroborate the After Action Review of the operations. If the Evidence doesnt match what the official Press Release state then we have a serious problem on our hands. And if the innuendo of a Political Cover-up is true, from the highest of Echelons of this Government to protect a Political nexus that helped such Perpetrators, then we have an even bigger problem on our hands.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby chetak » 10 Feb 2016 16:02

rkhanna wrote:
The diplomatic handling of the situation has failed and it will fail because if you ask any officer serving in R&AW or IB, they will say evidences have least value. Agencies on both sides know the X-Ray of the situation. What is important is the cooperation, which the government seeks from Pakistan.

And Pakistan is not ready to nab the responsible people and they will not in the near future also, as they will deny the authenticity and class of evidences provided. So as a tax payer, we can only expect GoI to formulate a better policy and bring Pakistan on the verges of cooperation.


Sir, the purpose of this Evidence is not to Give proof against the Perpetrators. Its to Corroborate the After Action Review of the operations. If the Evidence doesnt match what the official Press Release state then we have a serious problem on our hands. And if the innuendo of a Political Cover-up is true, from the highest of Echelons of this Government to protect a Political nexus that helped such Perpetrators, then we have an even bigger problem on our hands.


where is the doubt??

the minute the cock and bull story of the punjab police SP came out and allegedly desperate terrorists spared 3 out of four of the folks they came across before they entered the base tells it's own tale.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 11 Feb 2016 03:05

rkhanna, there is bigger game going on. Wait for all the pieces to fall in.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby rkhanna » 11 Feb 2016 11:56

Fair enough. Shall wait till we get clarity (if at all)

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Rishi » 11 Feb 2016 17:32


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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Aditya G » 11 Feb 2016 22:09

"The many failings of the National Security Guard"

This is the title of the article. As per the author NSG failed in Pathankot because it did not kill any of the terrorists. Is this sole fact enough to label NSG with a failure tag? I don't think so. 1 jehadi was killed by DSC - so was the latter successful?

A BRFite is expected to do better.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Raja Bose » 11 Feb 2016 22:21

Rishi wrote:http://www.caravanmagazine.in/perspectives/force-alarm-failings-national-security-guard

Written by a BRFite


With all due respect to the author but this article is pure DDM type BS.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 12 Feb 2016 02:59

Also Manavendra Singh wrote a fluff piece.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Aditya G » 13 Feb 2016 14:50

http://www.ndtv.com/india-news/pathanko ... in-1276849

...

His unit was flown from Adampur to Pathankot on January 1. The men were split into different groups and tasked with patrolling the air base. "It was around 3.30 am when we were asked to look around the vehicle maintenance area and clear the area," he recounts.

"We spotted a trail which led us inside the area, terrorists hiding there began firing as the platoon took positions," he recalls. In the gun battle, Corporal Gursewak Singh was shot and fell to the ground.

Then, Corporal Gaur felt something piercing his abdomen. He thought it was just a sliver of wood because there was a loud explosion at the same time. "Gursewak was a close friend, we had joined the Air Force together and we were buddies," he says.

The terrorists were firing at the commandoes from their Kalashnikovs. "They used lob grenades while reloading. Mortars were also fired at us. Thankfully, they didn't explode," he says. The commandos, though, could not use heavy weapons for the fear of collateral damage. The terrorists were out to destroy assets and the commandoes' brief was to secure the technical area where fighter jets and radars were.

It was only after the terrorists moved to a different location that Corporal Gaur could attend to his injuries. By then it was nearly 5 am. He had been fighting terrorists for over an hour.

At the Pathankot military hospital, four bullets and splinter pieces were removed from his body. Doctors were surprised that he had survived all that while because there was three litres of blood in the abdominal cavity due to internal bleeding.

...

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby ramana » 19 Feb 2016 02:58

X-Post...
SSridhar wrote:The Afzal Guru link in recent terror attacks - Vijaita Singh, The Hindu
As investigations into the Pathankot airbase attack gathers pace, investigators say that the 2001 Parliament attack convict Afzal Guru has emerged as the common link in at least three attacks on police and Army camps along the Jammu-Pathankot highway in the past one year.

Afzal Guru was hanged in Tihar jail in 2013.

Investigators have found at least one more letter, written in Urdu, on the body of one of the four terrorists killed in Pathankot. It said the attacks were to avenge Afzal Guru. As reported earlier, an Urdu statement, written in English, was found in the vehicle belonging to SP Salwinder Singh the terrorists had used to reach the airbase on the night of December 31.

Similar letters were found on the bodies of the intruders gunned down during an attack on a police post at Rajbagh in Kathua, Jammu, on March 20, 2015 and those who attacked an Army camp in nearby Samba on March 21, 2015. All these places are located within 15-20 km of the Pakistan border and along National Highway 1A.
The National Investigation Agency (NIA) has found that Chawinda in Pakistan is directly connected to Bamiyal in Punjab, from where the terrorists are believed to have infiltrated into India.

India has said that Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM), a Pakistan-based terrorist outfit, was behind the Pathankot attack. In the case of the other two incidents, no conclusions have been reached so far.

“Both the pieces of paper seized during the Pathankot operation had the same content,” said a senior NIA official. “The Urdu letter in English had Jaish-e-Mohammad (JeM) written on top of the page and it was signed by A.G.S (Afzal Guru Squad). This letter dated December 25, 2015, said the group had planned the attacks to avenge Afzal Guru. The other paper found tucked inside the jacket of one of the four terrorists said much the same thing. Only, this was written in Urdu.”

The NIA has been closely studying the similarities between the Pathankot and the Samba-Kathua attacks since it took over the investigations. An official said even the rifles used by the terrorists were similar in nature. An identical AK-47 rifle with an Under Barrel Grenade Launcher (UBGL) attached was seized by the J&K police during the Samba and Kathua attacks.

“Through these pieces of paper, they are trying to send out a message that the attacks were to seek revenge for Afzal Guru’s hanging. Similar pieces of paper have been found after all the three attacks. It cannot be a coincidence. There is a larger conspiracy behind it,” said an official.

And, here we have anti-nationals in JNU & Jadavpur Universities rasing pro-Afzal Guru slogans and media is unwilling to call them anti-national? What a pathetic situation.


Having failed in Gurdaspur and PAFB attack, Pak ISIS has started its SIMI activists cell in #JNU.

The underlying tactic is to link Afzal Guru hanging for harboring the 12/13/2001 Parliament LeT attackers in his house and being part of the conspiracy.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2016 04:50

Aditya G wrote:"The many failings of the National Security Guard"

This is the title of the article. As per the author NSG failed in Pathankot because it did not kill any of the terrorists. Is this sole fact enough to label NSG with a failure tag? I don't think so. 1 jehadi was killed by DSC - so was the latter successful?

A BRFite is expected to do better.


The article is rubbish unfortunately. Where is the evidence NSG didnt kill any terrorist? They had joint ops with other forces - so thats equal to NSG didn't kill anyone? Some anon source media article will be trotted out.
His claims of small size etc were discussed threadbare on the forum and in return all he could offer were either pompous comebacks and ignoring the facts. Claiming other countries can manage with smaller forces ignores their depth of local SWAT expertise as well & India's well known issues with logistics and infra limitations plus the depth/quantum of threat we face in terms of multiple attacks at a time of hostility.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Raja Bose » 19 Feb 2016 04:56

DSC killed 1 pig. Rest were halal'ed by NSG. But our DDMs think there were no terrorists in Pathankot, only misguided youth who got lost on their way to Abbu chacha's house. Hence, lahori logically, NSG killed 0 terrorists and hence proved that they are a 500% failure. QED.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Karan M » 19 Feb 2016 05:01

Clearly, he had indisputable upper hand in understanding how NSG did given his extensive (cough) wargaming.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby shiv » 19 Feb 2016 05:19

Aditya G wrote:"The many failings of the National Security Guard"

This is the title of the article. As per the author NSG failed in Pathankot because it did not kill any of the terrorists. Is this sole fact enough to label NSG with a failure tag? I don't think so. 1 jehadi was killed by DSC - so was the latter successful?

A BRFite is expected to do better.

Actually a recent broad based study by the Proper Assessment of Kashmir group sponsored by JNU (Afzal Research Foundation, SpL center*) has shown that the size of the Indian Army can be reduced to just 500 men, because a survey of all terrorist and LoC fatalities have shown that the actual fatal bullets were fired by just 500 men or so in the years 2013 to 2015. That means that in a group of 100 men, typically only 1 man would fire the "winning shot" as it were, to murder a freedom fighter. trying to cross the LoC The other men can obviously be done away with.

* Specious Logic Center

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby johneeG » 21 Feb 2016 09:27

NSG pulls over 600 from VVIP duties
Feb 15, 2016 |

AGE CORRESPONDENT With agency inputs
New Delhi

In yet another exercise to free its commandos from VIP duties and focus on its mandate of undertaking counter-terror operations, the NSG has pulled out over 600 commandos from its VVIP security unit. Some of these commandos were used for the first-time during the recent Pathankot attack.

The effort to prune down the VVIP duties of NSG commados has been going on over the last two years.

According to the new blueprint being worked upon by the elite force, two teams out of the total three of the 11th Special Rangers Group (SRG), stand withdrawn from VVIP security duties and have been tasked to undertake counter-terror operations along with and in assistance of the primary strike units — the Special Action Group (SAG).

The NSG, which was raised in 1984 for exclusive counter-terror operations but later entrusted with VVIP security duties, has the least number of 15 such protectees under its cover and, after its request to not burden it further in this regard, the government has not given it any additional responsibility in this domain for over two years now.

While the 2008 Mumbai terror attack involved about 400 commandos over a period of three days, over 300 NSG men were deployed for the Pathankot operation that was officially called off in five days.

In what has come as a help, the government has also not given any additional duty in the VVIP security domain and assigned that task to central paramilitary forces like CRPF, CISF and ITBP.

Link

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby hanumadu » 23 Feb 2016 10:33

https://twitter.com/gauravcsawant/status/701658610170859520

GAURAV C SAWANT ‏@gauravcsawant 23h23 hours ago
Pak admits Pathankot terror calls traced back to phones at JeM Hq in Bahawalpur: Sartaj Aziz tells Karan Thapar on @IndiaToday

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby deWalker » 24 Feb 2016 08:42

CT: part of the reason that the Pakis send regular "non-state" missions, is to probe and understand the limits of Indian and US ELINT of their lines of communication.

The interceptions of Mushy's conversations during Kargil showed them they had a strategic weakness.Further, during 26/11 we were able to pinpoint specific identities engaged over satcom phones and Skype / VOIP. Now the trail has moved to low-end burner phones with "imported" SIMs.

The next attack will use encrypted P2P messaging over some obscure social media channel. Data traffic, especially if encrypted, would be harder to trace I imagine. With the full backing of the ISI's version of the NSA, what else would you expect. Time for the RI DOOs to polish up our sniffing capabilities.

D/

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby shiv » 24 Feb 2016 16:10

deWalker wrote:CT: part of the reason that the Pakis send regular "non-state" missions, is to probe and understand the limits of Indian and US ELINT of their lines of communication.

Not disputing this, but I am veering around to the view that Pakistan is waging war at a level it finds affordable.

As comparison, the US attacks Serbia, Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria serially because that is the level at which the US can sustain war.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby member_29350 » 24 Feb 2016 16:31

Aditya G wrote: Mortars were also fired at us. Thankfully, they didn't explode," he says.
...

Mortars from porkis infiltrators? Is it DDM because I didn't see any mortar tubes in the pix of the dead

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby shiv » 24 Feb 2016 16:40

As pointed out after the Pathankot attack Pakistan is now sending in jihadis with spl forces training and equipment

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Karan M » 24 Feb 2016 16:56

That's been true for ages. Why only Pathankot? 26/11, the attacks on our outposts by BATs, the attack on our bases way back in the 2001 timeframe...TSP has been waging a true low cost SF war on India while India has been busy using its highly trained SF as direct assaulters and elite infantry..

The only real reason we are not seeing more of the same is to avoid crossing India's overt redlines, that would make even pappu types yell for war (when their privileged skins were in danger a la parliament attack) or create such a large pool of jihadist SF types in TSP so that some can defect and attack PA itself.

So Pakistan has created a system where it can regularly churn out jihadists of varying capabilities, a few with the highest grade SSG type training & then pumps them up full of drugs for "courage" and is sending them across regularly.

Our response has been to ramp up the numbers of "elite infantry" aka SF presumably under the belief that they will be useful under a full scale war but we have no consistent answer to Pakistan's SF war on us.

Everytime a raid on India occurs, we should demolish the base or post they came into Indian territory from. That means a quasi war situation. Local disturbance, war style prep and constant skirmishes. We don;t want that and Khan intervenes so that's a one off only when we get "too provoked" or Pakistan acts too smart and provokes us beyond the usual. Problem is the "usual" keeps rising. They are defining the redlines.

Next, we clearly don't have the covert capabilities to undertake a strike for strike campaign using equally deniable assets. Or train them. That would be a can of worms for our secular polity if we did that locally, however we clearly are not doing enough using the folks TSP itself has so thoughtfully alienated. And we clearly have ethical concerns in using our SF to wage such a war given the attrition we'd have (even though the SF clearly have the guts for it, and I suspect they'd well consider the tradeoff worth it and yearn for the chance to visit havoc on the opponent, anywhich way, the average Indian may wail nevermind the political class).

All said and done, we are not doing enough for deterrence.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby member_29350 » 24 Feb 2016 18:26

Karan M wrote:All said and done, we are not doing enough for deterrence.


that's what bugs me.Even economic embargo...red tapism should have been used to close off funding and stuff. Instead SAARC MFN...

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby Karan M » 24 Feb 2016 18:38

Agreed. There is no long term plan in place, clearly to game out various Pakistani responses and what we should do in return. Its not like we lack the experience.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby habal » 24 Feb 2016 19:16

najam sethi's latest vomit on 'aapas ki baat' has it that Sartaj aziz admission to media/India that there was indeed a phone call traced back to bahawalpur jaish-e-mohammad campus has been done with the blessings of the army who want to curb this tendency of jihadist strikes by deniable asset. As per najayaz sethi the americans have also confirmed and tracked this call and put pressure on the pakistani govt.

It seems retired ISI personnel have their own parallel setup and training in place where they provide contacts, logistics, assistance for infiltration and also weapons training for as long as they deem fit by their contacts in army or retd army special forces personnel. They are not constrained by 3 month or 6 month training camps and they train for as long as they like.

If they close the camps, it will be a shock to this system and then these very same corps of skilled operators will sell their wares elsewhere. So it needs to be handled with care for pakis.

My another intuition is that pakistani terrorist orgs like JeM and LeT have been sending, on request of Saudis & Turds, trained recruits to fight with ISIS in Syria. Some thousands book one way ticket from Pakistan to Istanbul never to return, and there is some kind of void in availability of cheap canon fodder via usual routes. The photo of pigs killed in Pathankot resemble exactly with the dead & mutilated ISIS bodies in Syria. If any of them return to pakistan safely and alive and they are pushed to India, their battle experience will be a notch or two higher than the pure academic trained recruits.

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Re: Pathankot AFB terrorist Attack After Action Analysis-I

Postby deWalker » 24 Feb 2016 21:04

shiv wrote:
deWalker wrote:CT: part of the reason that the Pakis send regular "non-state" missions, is to probe and understand the limits of Indian and US ELINT of their lines of communication.

Not disputing this, but I am veering around to the view that Pakistan is waging war at a level it finds affordable.


No doubt what you are saying is their prime motive. I'm suggesting that their strategy isn't just to kill (and die), but also to understand our capabilities.


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