India-US relations: News and Discussions III

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby kumarn » 15 Nov 2016 00:44

sanjaykumar wrote:http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/14/opinion/the-incendiary-appeal-of-demagoguery-in-our-time.html?action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=opinion-c-col-left-region&region=opinion-c-col-left-region&WT.nav=opinion-c-col-left-region

The irrepressible Pankaj Mishra has another toxic dump.


No wonder Taleb called them IYI - intellectuals yet idiots!

https://medium.com/@nntaleb/the-intelle ... .tl4y0u5yt

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 15 Nov 2016 02:55

Ramana garu, HRC campaign is over and sunk permanently. We got what we wanted in that regard... no Humedins or Kerrys or any of that extra Pakistaniyat in the White House/SD.

Now there is a new reality and we must pivot instantly to confront it for the best interest of our people. As I mentioned earlier, the one positive thing about HRC presidency would be that we had maps to guide us in risk management even though the risks were great. Now we have none; so we must be extra vigilant to spot the landmarks and map the new contours. And keep our powder dry for the worst, while hoping (and trying) for the best.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 15 Nov 2016 02:59

Engagement while being wary is best option.

Chinese Yuan fell quite a bit today.

DeMonetization will strengthen the rupee by removing fake currency and black money.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 15 Nov 2016 03:04

Hari om. Demonetization is the most astoundingly selfless act, with the widest long-term influence, by any GOI since 1991. I think it will change the tenor of our relations with all countries in the world, including the US, as profoundly.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 15 Nov 2016 06:46

Rudradev wrote:Ramana garu, HRC campaign is over and sunk permanently. We got what we wanted in that regard... no Humedins or Kerrys or any of that extra Pakistaniyat in the White House/SD.

Now there is a new reality and we must pivot instantly to confront it for the best interest of our people. As I mentioned earlier, the one positive thing about HRC presidency would be that we had maps to guide us in risk management even though the risks were great. Now we have none; so we must be extra vigilant to spot the landmarks and map the new contours. And keep our powder dry for the worst, while hoping (and trying) for the best.


You got your first challenge to work on: Mr. Stephen K. Bannon.

Huma, Kerry, Kaine and plenty of others put together.

THIS is going to be one hell of a ride. Buckle up. And sharpen those .................

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Atmavik » 15 Nov 2016 06:52

Arjun wrote:The IT services industry has been the main stimulus for India's high growth over last couple of decades...and 60% of that comes from the US. And that edifice is entirely dependent on H1B visas - so no question that the visa scheme is important for India.

Brain drain etc is all overblown....the numbers emigrating are minuscule part of India's population and in fact, in comparison to most countries India's emigration rate is one of the lowest.


Most of us are JavaScript warriors. To call it brain drain is a Uge strech

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 15 Nov 2016 07:16

This is an Indo-US thread, but a bigger picture is emmerging:

Britain has exited and are preparing for a lock-down.

Trump has announced a lock-down. Perhaps the most certain of them all.

Le Pen in France? IF .......... lock-down.

China is already looking inwards, would love to reduce dependency on exports, but unlikely to import much. An unannounced, defacto lock-down.

So ............... India does not seem to have much choice, as I see it, but to base her growth strategy on internal growth. Perhaps the demonetization effort will provide a good platform to fly from.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 15 Nov 2016 07:21

That's what NaMo has been doing since he got elected in 2014. Focusing on India.
GST and Demonetization.
He plans to include greater India: Afghanistan, Sri Lanka, BD, Nepal, Malaysia and Thailand.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Manny » 15 Nov 2016 07:23

Does anyone who this bloke is?

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clinton- ... d=39710624

How Clinton Donor Got on Sensitive Intelligence Board

A prolific fundraiser for Democratic candidates and contributor to the Clinton Foundation, who later traveled with Bill Clinton on a trip to Africa, Rajiv K. Fernando’s only known qualification for a seat on the International Security Advisory Board (ISAB) was his technological know-how. The Chicago securities trader, who specialized in electronic investing, sat alongside an august collection of nuclear scientists, former cabinet secretaries and members of Congress to advise Hillary Clinton on the use of tactical nuclear weapons and on other crucial arms control issues.

Fernando’s lack of any known background in nuclear security caught the attention of several board members, and when ABC News first contacted the State Department in August 2011 seeking a copy of his resume, the emails show that confusion ensued among the career government officials who work with the advisory panel.

“I have spoken to [State Department official and ISAB Executive Director Richard Hartman] privately, and it appears there is much more to this story that we’re unaware of,” wrote Jamie Mannina, the press aide who fielded the ABC News request. “We must protect the Secretary’s and Under Secretary’s name, as well as the integrity of the Board. I think it’s important to get down to the bottom of this before there’s any response.

“As you can see from the attached, it’s natural to ask how he got onto the board when compared to the rest of the esteemed list of members,” Mannina wrote, referring to an attachment that was not included in the recent document release.

:D

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 15 Nov 2016 07:27

They made his quit before the Congress questioned them.
Must be a hedge fund trader.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby chanakyaa » 15 Nov 2016 07:43

NRao wrote:So ............... India does not seem to have much choice, as I see it, but to base her growth strategy on internal growth. Perhaps the demonetization effort will provide a good platform to fly from.

Focus and investment on internal growth was long long due.....it should have happened or must happen regardless of what other countries do.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 15 Nov 2016 07:47

Ramana Garu,

Big diff between India and Greater India.

Having said that BD, SL and Malaysia, combined, would be the third largest block to import from India - to the tune of 4.6%, ahead of Hong Kong and China, which are 3 and 4 respectively. A good idea, but the Indian market - by itself - should be self sustaining.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Prem » 16 Nov 2016 00:25

http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/11 ... enseOneTCO

How Trump Will Affect the India-Pakistan Balance of Power
( Brit wish list/ analysis)

Trump, it is suspected, may lead a return to the America of the late 19th century—a great power whose international interests were better defined in geo-economic than geopolitical terms. Today, American hegemony, whether resented or relied on, affects every country; naturally governments everywhere are scrambling to make sense of what is coming before they are overtaken by events.So what can South Asia expect?
Although there are enormous uncertainties, the tea leaves point to a limited commitment to Afghanistan, an even more skeptical and conditional patronage of Pakistan than we already see, and a relationship with India that although warm in tone will leave it far more isolated in facing growing Chinese power.It is important to recognise that the Republican victory on Nov. 8 gave them both halves: the Congress as well as the White House. Going by the Senate and House of Representatives’ budget-tinkering powers, there will be significant changes in the allocation of US overseas military and development aid.A new consensus will emerge between the different strands of the party in these three bodies, one that will likely mark a sharp swing away from the idea of freely spending money abroad in support of progressive agendas. Human rights (except perhaps for Christians) and democracy promotion is likely to atrophy, as is the idea of massive development assistance. This will reduce American leverage in Kabul and Islamabad.The picture with military aid is far less straightforward. If anything, the US Congress is going to be even more skeptical than the Trump White House over the flow of money to Pakistan for counter-terrorism cooperation.Back in April, candidate Trump acknowledged that US military aid to Pakistan was an exception to his general aversion to sending money abroad, given the much higher cost of Pakistan falling apart or being taken over by a hostile force. Certainly, if the US remains militarily engaged in Afghanistan (likely, although under tough terms), it will continue to need Pakistani cooperation. Trump’s commitment to the fossil-fuel economy will also mean an enduring engagement with the Middle East and continued reliance on regional actors such as Pakistan.
Trump’s most exuberant fans in the Hindutva movement in India and America, who have danced, prayed, and offered sweets for his victory, ought to temper their expectations: his loud Islamophobia will not translate into a strongly anti-Pakistani policy. Yet, a Republican Congress, like the White House, will squeeze Pakistan harder for compliance. This will result in greater influence for the People’s Republic of China and perhaps the oil exporters of the Persian Gulf.While the post-9/11 struggles against the Taliban in Afghanistan and piracy from the Horn of Africa to the Straits of Malacca have strengthened the Indo-American relationship, the deepest and most enduring source of Washington DC’s strategic engagement with India has been the hopes and fears for China. Although the US’ needs and the Indian establishment’s perceptions of America’s appropriateness as a partner have varied wildly over the decades, a Trump presidency could represent a much more profound shift. For the first time since Franklin Delano Roosevelt came to power in 1933, a US president may be fundamentally indifferent to the balance of power in Asia.Trump has been willing to talk tough about China’s trade and monetary policies, but Beijing’s aggressive stance in the South China Sea and advances into the Indian Ocean seem to be of no real interest. This will take some getting used to for New Delhi.Prime ministers Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Manmohan Singh, and Modi alike have leveraged American anxieties over the rise of China to secure US support on a range of issues (including pressuring Pakistan), allowing India to build its international profile while avoiding many of the costs of real leadership.Trump’s normalization of discrimination against Muslims and economic protectionism against China will remain a highly prized source of validation to Hindu nationalists, but the reality is that India could be more alone than ever in facing its chief strategic adversaries.The overall picture is closer than ever to the Indian independence struggles’ dream of an “Asia for Asian powers.”
But where does this leave the subcontinental rivalry that is heating up in Afghanistan, Balochistan, and Kashmir? India is not about to gain a decisive advantage, and Trump’s recent offer to mediate between India and Pakistan indicates that US interests in preventing wars that are likely to disrupt the global economy will remain.However, India and Pakistan will have to rely on much greater self-regulation to maintain stability in the face of increasing risks of serious miscalculation.China’s complexes about India mean that it cannot replace America’s role as the balancer of last resort in the region anytime soon.All this is of course highly provisional. No one yet knows the extent to which Trump will succeed in asserting himself over the institutional views of the diplomatic, military, and intelligence bureaucracies, or if a world-view formed in the real-estate and entertainment industries can survive a collision with geopolitical realities.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 16 Nov 2016 00:35

Direct quote, from a person who has been saying this for a whie:

India- US defense strategies to strengthen under Trump regime


Alexander Gray, a senior military adviser and author of several of the ambitious defence policies of Donald Trump told a news agency that "Trump Administration would attempt to strengthen the defence side where it shares so much common ground with India. At a time when India’s foreign policy is changing because of China and Pakistan, because of Islamic terrorism, we need to be there to greet them with open arms. I think, the Trump Administration is ready to do that,” giving an insight into a possible Indian possibility under Trump's administration.


Trump, himself, is very clueless. It is the people that he surrounds himself with that will paint a picture for him.

'Trump Administration' would focus on defence ties with India, says aide

Defence and counter-terrorism would be two key pillars of Indo-United States strategic ties under Donald Trump, his top military advisor has said while asserting that India will be ‘absolutely critical’ to the Republican candidate's foreign policy as president.

“This is a country that shares our values, this is a country that shares a lot of geo-political interest and, I think, his (Trump’s) work is going to be continuing the tradition of Bush Administration which made a lot of progress in that regard,” Alexander Gray, a senior military advisor and author of several of the ambitious defence policies of Trump, said.

“We (Trump Administration) would be looking to strengthen not just the cultural and economic aspect, but also on the defence side there is so much common ground with India. At a time when India’s foreign policy is changing because of China and Pakistan, because of Islamic terrorism, we need to be there to greet them with open arms. I think, the Trump Administration is ready to do that,” Gray said giving an insight into the India policy of a possible Trump administration.

Trump is the only presidential candidate to have addressed a meeting of Indian Americans and directly spoken about a strong India-US relationship.

Gray, who has emerged as a key player in evolving the defence and military policies of the Trump Campaign, said India would be ‘absolutely critical’ in Trump’s foreign policy.

Co-author of a major policy paper on ‘Donald Trump’s Peace Through Strength Vision for the Asia Pacific’ which was published in the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine, Gray said India is ‘on top of the list’ of Trump's Indo-Asia Pacific policy to which the defence aspect would be an important pillar.

“Strengthening defence relationship with India would be at top. This is what the Congress has been looking at for a long time," he said, indicating that a Trump Administration would be looking at legislative changes towards strengthening India-US defense ties.

“The Trump Administration would not give a passage to what China is doing in South China Sea, what it is doing in East China Sea, what it is doing along the border in India,” Gray said in response to a question.

A strong partnership with US would deter China from making any aggressive posture against India, said Puneet Ahluwalia, a member of the Trump’s Advisory Committee on Asian Americans.

“A strong US defence with India would give India much dependable ally to fight of threats from its neighbours and from terrorism by creating strong navy and latest technology in cyber and other areas,” he said.

Ahluwalia, a Washington DC-based lobbyist, said he will work aggressively with the Trump Administration and the Pentagon to remove the obstacles in regards to transfer of technology and enhance defence trade and develop the blue economy.

The Foreign Policy article co-authored by Gray and Peter Navarro, also a senior military advisor to the Trump Campaign, said Obama Administration’s Asia Pacific pivot seemed to be an appropriate and timely response against China’s aggressive behaviour and military build up.

“It did not take long, however, for the pivot to falter,” Gray said.

‘It’s not just that Secretary Clinton’s weak pivot follow-through has invited Chinese aggression in the East and South China Seas. She also faithfully executed the Obama administration’s failed policy of 'strategic patience' with North Korea -- a foreign-policy doctrine that has produced nothing but heightened instability and increased danger,’ the op-ed said.

Observing that American allies and partners in the region have been disheartened by a foreign policy that has veered from feckless to mendacious, the Trump Administration’s top policy advisors said the Philippines’ recent high-profile rejection of American leadership, and open courtship with China, is a further setback in Asia for the Obama Clinton foreign policy.

‘The United States has tremendous opportunities to reclaim its geostrategic position in Asia. This is due mainly to China’s own miscalculations and the overplaying of its hand,’ they said.

‘Almost in spite of the Obama administration's repellant policies, US partners like Japan, South Korea, India, and even Myanmar and Vietnam continue to seek closer ties with Washington across the spectrum. They view Beijing as a bully and potential aggressor that must be balanced against,’ Gray and Navarro wrote.

‘The next administration will be well-placed to seize these strategic opportunities -- if it has the will and vision to do so,’ they wrote.

‘Trump’s approach is two-pronged. First, Trump will never again sacrifice the US economy on the altar of foreign policy by entering into bad trade deals like the North American Free Trade Agreement, allowing China into the World Trade Organisation, and passing the proposed TPP,’ the article said.

‘These deals only weaken our manufacturing base and ability to defend ourselves and our allies. Second, Trump will steadfastly pursue a strategy of peace through strength, an axiom of Ronald Reagan that was abandoned under the Obama administration,’ it added.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 16 Nov 2016 00:52

Prem wrote:http://www.defenseone.com/ideas/2016/11/how-trump-will-affect-india-pakistan-balance-power/133191/?oref=DefenseOneTCO

How Trump Will Affect the India-Pakistan Balance of Power
( Brit wish list/ analysis)

...


What it says (a lot of snide Bri$hit commentary about Hindoo nationalists regardless)... is that India will have to fight her own battles.

We can only thank the Gods that India today has a leadership who knows this, and has always known it. At least in this instance we will not have Kerry and Huma Abedin contriving to stab us in the flank while we're fighting Pakistan and China. Or attempting to control the outcome in our enemies' favour when we win.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2016 00:59

Gray, who has emerged as a key player in evolving the defence and military policies of the Trump Campaign, said India would be ‘absolutely critical’ in Trump’s foreign policy.

Co-author of a major policy paper on ‘Donald Trump’s Peace Through Strength Vision for the Asia Pacific’ which was published in the prestigious Foreign Policy magazine, Gray said India is ‘on top of the list’ of Trump's Indo-Asia Pacific policy to which the defence aspect would be an important pillar.



This a liberal magazine.

ReDiff is printing anything!

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 16 Nov 2016 01:03

Trump will ask for Indian boots on the ground to fight ISIS. When we say no, he will say "very sad" and pull out of all defense deals, F-solah block 70 line included :mrgreen:

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 16 Nov 2016 01:20

Liberal or conservative, the man has Trump's ears. What does anyone else have?


I do not think it will come to boots on the ground.


But, yes, I do see MII, being relegated to the netherworld, from a Trump perspective. However, he and Modi being biz guys, should get along very well. I expect trade to flourish. The imbalance will be corrected though.

F-16, specifically, I see it coming. Cannot say the same about DTTI, etc.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby GShankar » 16 Nov 2016 01:44

Rudradev wrote:Trump will ask for Indian boots on the ground to fight ISIS. When we say no, he will say "very sad" and pull out of all defense deals, F-solah block 70 line included :mrgreen:


If we need to be in NSG, UNSC Px (currently P5), etc. we may have to do more than just giving out defense contracts to unkil and just asking for other member's opinion.

May be it is boots on the ground or something else. We may have to earn them with blood. Different matter whether all of this are worth our blood.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby disha » 16 Nov 2016 02:59

Rudradev wrote:Ramana garu, HRC campaign is over and sunk permanently. We got what we wanted in that regard... no Humedins or Kerrys or any of that extra Pakistaniyat in the White House/SD.

Now there is a new reality and we must pivot instantly to confront it for the best interest of our people. As I mentioned earlier, the one positive thing about HRC presidency would be that we had maps to guide us in risk management even though the risks were great. Now we have none; so we must be extra vigilant to spot the landmarks and map the new contours. And keep our powder dry for the worst, while hoping (and trying) for the best.


One of the stark reality we miss is that we prepare for "risk management" but never for "opportunity management".

HRC presidency had very well known and very high risks but never an opportunity - other than the opportunity of stale mate. A simmering stale-mate that too.

Now the opportunity has opened up of benign neglect at worst., with a benign stale mate (as opposed to a simmering hot/cold stale-mate under HRC) as more likely but a prospect of pivot to India is also possible.

Here are already the opportunities for Indo-US relationships thanks to Trump:

TPP

1. TPP is off the table now., this provides impetus for Indian pharma in ASEAN.
2. Pacific cartelization of goods and services by US over ASEAN would have hurt China - but would have hurt India and the IOR more! We would be serious collateral damage.
3. India would have had no option but to subsume itself including its vaunted service industry under US. With HRC., not just the industry but India's borders would also have been subsumed under US.

Can India take leadership of IOR and negotiate on behalf of IOR within WTO with US? Isn't that an opportunity.

For too long I think we have been into risk management. That is what our leadership prepared us for. I guess we need to start thinking into opportunity management.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 16 Nov 2016 22:45

Disha ji,
Opportunity management is fine as long as one doesn't confuse it with wishful thinking. That is something desis are guilty of time and again... the underlying vain hope being that Unkil will somehow do the heavy lifting to solve our problems, or that this is somehow more likely to happen with a new dispensation in power. We did this when B Clinton became president, then GWB, and then Obama. There is, many generations after independence, a deplorable tendency among us to look upon gora mai-baap as a saviour and then feel all betrayed when things don't go as we led ourselves to believe.


For the record, I personally saw opportunity onlee, even in the event of HRC victory!
viewtopic.php?f=1&t=7243&p=2061272#p2061272

It's OK, folks. Doesn't matter.

Islamophobia... or, as I prefer to call it, Islamo-realism in America is alive and well no matter what happens. Islam has ensured that all by itself, and will continue to do so.

Ironically, I think having a more Islam-pasand POTUS this time around will only make the impending Islamo-realist reaction even more popcorn-worthy when it finally erupts amongst the US masses.

Hopefully she will fail abjectly at reversing the economic slide, depleting trade and budget deficits, curbing unemployment and/or averting the next financial crisis. That will only add to how furious people become. Islam, meanwhile, will claw its way rabidly to the front of the line for scapegoats... just look at how many attacks there have been on US soil since Boston (San Bernadino, Orlando, NY/NJ). The pace and frequency are growing too rapidly for the thin fiction of "misguided lone wolves" to endure much longer. Blame will finally be placed where it belongs, and there will be nothing she or Abedin or Uzra Zeya can do to stem the consequences.

US-India relations meanwhile will bottom out under Hillary. She is just the sort of person who will look at the developing Russia-China axis, and its flirtation with Pakistan, to conclude that "Hindoo India needs us, therefore its concerns can be treated with cavalier dismissal and high-handed hectoring because we're the only game in town for them".

This, IMHO, will also be an extraordinarily good thing for India.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby chaitanya » 16 Nov 2016 23:11

Slightly OT, but what do the gurus think will happen to science funding under DT and the republicans?

I feel that R&D will get the shaft, and some properly timed moves from GOI could help reverse some of the brain drain of the past few decades. If it does happen, it could be a silent but very meaningful impact of a DT/republican win.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 16 Nov 2016 23:17

DT wants to bring jobs back.
Means need for innovation.
Wont happen with out R&D spending.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby chaitanya » 16 Nov 2016 23:54

^ I've been confused by this... I agree with what you said, it makes sense with the nationalistic narrative. But the general feeling I get from talking to people around me is that of gloom and doom - defunding of science and/or additional obstacles being placed for some fields, like medical research (stem cells, etc.). I could also just be sampling from a biased population :oops:

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby ramana » 17 Nov 2016 00:39

chaitanya wrote:^ I've been confused by this... I agree with what you said, it makes sense with the nationalistic narrative. But the general feeling I get from talking to people around me is that of gloom and doom - defunding of science and/or additional obstacles being placed for some fields, like medical research (stem cells, etc.). I could also just be sampling from a biased population :oops:


My son also started this rhona/dhona and on quizzing him, it comes from two statements that DT made:
- FDA has lot of bloat and needs to be rightly aligned.
- He doesn't believe in climate science


Big picture is some programs will be cut but overall it has to increase spending that will lead to more jobs.

The S&T community is also very linked to Beltway coterie and they fed this angst right after Nov 8th.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby svinayak » 17 Nov 2016 01:04

Image

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shakuntala_Devi

Shakuntala Devi a ma thematic genius and astrologer in 1980s had met Donald Trump and predicted that Trump would be President in the future.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby JE Menon » 17 Nov 2016 01:15

http://swarajyamag.com/world/trumps-vic ... ballot-box

Righteous anger at the ballot box...

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Nov 2016 01:27

chaitanya wrote:Slightly OT, but what do the gurus think will happen to science funding under DT and the republicans?

I feel that R&D will get the shaft, and some properly timed moves from GOI could help reverse some of the brain drain of the past few decades. If it does happen, it could be a silent but very meaningful impact of a DT/republican win.


Physical sciences should prosper under a DT administration along with space exploration. A lot of jobs were lost, or more correctly not created, under the Obama administration related to high energy physics and associated industries. Expect funding through DoE and DARPA.

DT will need Florida in 2020. In the middle of FL a lot of people related to the shuttle program were let go when it ended and wasn't replaced. DT will have to fix that or he will lose the upper coastal counties.

New weapon systems will get renewed impetus, so those in engineering R&D will benefit. We will really find out mid 2017 when the FY2018 budget is being prepared. Until then, BO's budget will continue.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby disha » 17 Nov 2016 04:17

Climate change scientists had lot of bloaters and hanger ons. There was even talk of studies to put cow in some kind of 'modern diapers' to measure methane emissions. Just a waste of time.

It is this kind of hanger ons which are doing rona-dhona of how Trump is anti-science.

Nobody asked the question - if HRC cannot use her own email., isn't she anti-tech?

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby krishna_krishna » 17 Nov 2016 07:41

Guru's some rumblings,My pranam's to Rdevji to predict that China's OBOR policy was massa blessed and they wanted to have Chinkis use it so they can control their nerves.

One dot I want to connect here is massa troops in A'stan will stay till they have proxies there in ruling that are OBOR passand or just their to protect in case their is threat to CEPC. DT coming and announcing that we join OBOR is just entering completion stage of that strategy that is why since Bush days they wanted our troops to keep East quite so their munna can finish Afghan's (Unstable parties in this mayajaal or threat to this initiative).

So chinkis get solid logistics route and they are also creating parallel route as backup via SCS, B'desh, SL and Africa bound. Massa does not want this to happen that is why both are vying b'desh and Lanka.

Now the future contours of world blocs depends upon : China - Russi relations after china does tighter embrace to massa, Iran - India relations and Japan- Russia relations. They would determine where or which bloc is stronger. The other players have choosen sides i.e desh would never be on the same side as napakis, russi's never on same side as massa, Aussi's will always be on side on massa, same goes for Singapore, barbaria always with massa.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby chaitanya » 17 Nov 2016 19:36

disha wrote:Nobody asked the question - if HRC cannot use her own email., isn't she anti-tech?

:rotfl:

Thanks for the responses, much more lucid than the usual ranting...

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Paul » 17 Nov 2016 20:11

If trump wants to develop super strong APAC naval presence but at the same time is supporting CPEC, means they want PRC to push westwards........

However with good relations with Russia on the anvil, Russia gets breathing space to push back against PRC in Central Asia. So where will PRC go?

Something has to give in this triangular game between US-Russia-PRC. One has to go...and it cannot be the US for sure!

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby symontk » 17 Nov 2016 22:39

ramana wrote:
chaitanya wrote:^ I've been confused by this... I agree with what you said, it makes sense with the nationalistic narrative. But the general feeling I get from talking to people around me is that of gloom and doom - defunding of science and/or additional obstacles being placed for some fields, like medical research (stem cells, etc.). I could also just be sampling from a biased population :oops:


My son also started this rhona/dhona and on quizzing him, it comes from two statements that DT made:
- FDA has lot of bloat and needs to be rightly aligned.
- He doesn't believe in climate science


Big picture is some programs will be cut but overall it has to increase spending that will lead to more jobs.

The S&T community is also very linked to Beltway coterie and they fed this angst right after Nov 8th.


Trump might devalue dollar which would pull industries away from China, Europe and India. This would trigger economic growth in US. Impacts would be huge to other parts of world. US standing in the world as a major defence power will still stand since their defence industries are local based

NB: I got this snippet from a source whose ear is closely aligned to few companies

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby svinayak » 17 Nov 2016 22:53

Paul wrote:If trump wants to develop super strong APAC naval presence but at the same time is supporting CPEC, means they want PRC to push westwards........

However with good relations with Russia on the anvil, Russia gets breathing space to push back against PRC in Central Asia. So where will PRC go?

Something has to give in this triangular game between US-Russia-PRC. One has to go...and it cannot be the US for sure!

And India cannot be the victim

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby svinayak » 17 Nov 2016 22:56

symontk wrote:Trump might devalue dollar which would pull industries away from China, Europe and India. This would trigger economic growth in US. Impacts would be huge to other parts of world. US standing in the world as a major defence power will still stand since their defence industries are local based

NB: I got this snippet from a source whose ear is closely aligned to few companies

This was always an option.
It will reset the global trade and Banking system.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby pankajs » 17 Nov 2016 22:59

How will US devalue it's currency?

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby NRao » 17 Nov 2016 23:51

symontk wrote:
ramana wrote:
My son also started this rhona/dhona and on quizzing him, it comes from two statements that DT made:
- FDA has lot of bloat and needs to be rightly aligned.
- He doesn't believe in climate science


Big picture is some programs will be cut but overall it has to increase spending that will lead to more jobs.

The S&T community is also very linked to Beltway coterie and they fed this angst right after Nov 8th.


Trump might devalue dollar which would pull industries away from China, Europe and India. This would trigger economic growth in US. Impacts would be huge to other parts of world. US standing in the world as a major defence power will still stand since their defence industries are local based

NB: I got this snippet from a source whose ear is closely aligned to few companies


If one googles, that news has been since May-June of this year. Trump has always been associated with "currency".

One topic I have not seen (or researched) is what will be impact of others reacting to it - they too can re-value their currencies.


BTW, here is a comment based on just such an expectation (Trump deval):

The Bottom Line
Currency devaluations can be used by countries to achieve economic policy. Having a weaker currency relative to the rest of the world can help boost exports, shrink trade deficits and reduce the cost of interest payments on its outstanding government debts. There are, however, some negative effects of devaluations. They create uncertainty in global markets that can cause asset markets to fall or spur recessions. Countries might be tempted to enter a tit for tat currency war, devaluing their own currency back and forth in a race to the bottom. This can be a very dangerous and vicious cycle leading to much more harm than good.



Read more: 3 Reasons Why Countries Devalue Their Currency | Investopedia http://www.investopedia.com/articles/in ... z4QIB4VLjH

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Rudradev » 18 Nov 2016 01:22

svinayak wrote:
Paul wrote:If trump wants to develop super strong APAC naval presence but at the same time is supporting CPEC, means they want PRC to push westwards........

However with good relations with Russia on the anvil, Russia gets breathing space to push back against PRC in Central Asia. So where will PRC go?

Something has to give in this triangular game between US-Russia-PRC. One has to go...and it cannot be the US for sure!

And India cannot be the victim


Rest assured, that is their plan.

viewtopic.php?t=2581&start=1480#p2004789

India will be jockeyed into a victim position by the very fact of US vigorously supporting CPEC. Then India's disadvantaged position will be used as leverage to demand that we give up on even more issues critical to our interest (Cashmere? Nukes? Trade/IP negotiations?) if we want the US to come and "save" us with some balancing against China in the subcontinent.

Ramana's old analogy about the landlord who hires brigands to terrorize his tenants, then squeezes the tenants for protection money, is what applies here.

Make NO mistake. The Trump team, exactly like the Clinton team, sees China as a GLOBAL power and India as a REGIONAL power. It is completely on the same page with Xi regarding this particular big-picture axiomatic view of the status quo (ask James Woolsey!)

The US-China maneuvering around India will only be to adjust their respective leverage over India and Pakistan, and gather bargaining chips to use for extracting incremental concessions from each other... not to "help India break out of the subcontinent and become a counterweight to China" or ANYTHING like that.

Nobody may say so in public, but in the eyes of Washington and Beijing a modus vivendi based on India-Pakistan hyphenation will remain the well-understood basis of transactions involving the subcontinent.

Of course, to be fair, this would not have been any different under a HRC administration. I just hope people on BRF who were expecting it to be different under a Trump administration have stocked up on Digene for the inevitable heartburn that will ensue.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Paul » 18 Nov 2016 01:31

RDji, however this message has to be conveyed to Xi for his buy in. We know Xi has ordered 300K PLA troops to be disbanded and wants the funds to be transferred to the Navy as he sees the major threat for China on it's eastern sea board.

Kaplan in his book Monsoon said that China has never been more secure than now on it's land borders in it's entire history. India is the ONLY country with a credible land army to threaten Chinese land forces. Not even Vietnam has this power. As of now Indian posture along Tibet border is purely strongly defensive till Mountain corp is deployed by 2020 or so. So why will China want to disturb this comfortable situation and add to it's considerable list of enemies.

So we have to wait and see where Xi is allocating his funds. If it is to the Army, then we are in their X hairs, if Navy then...well we have to see.

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Re: India-US relations: News and Discussions III

Postby Paul » 18 Nov 2016 01:49

Russia and China already have an understanding in keeping America out of Central Asia, and with Iran playing ball they have succeeded in this objective to the teeee. China does not need US prodding to spread influence in Central Asia. They have been doing that for some time....their priority to secure their sea lanes to protect their commerce and for this to happen they need the US to get out of their way in western pacific.

I am sceptical to the thought they will be able to work it out amicably.


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