Terror Attack At Army Camp In Jammu And Kashmir's Uri

SwamyG · Post by **SwamyG** » 20 Sep 2016 09:19

Karan M wrote:Problem is man who left the village promised everyone he was different & knew how to reach US overnight. He underestimated that the trains, planes he would have to take didn't exist and the whole mess was far worse.

Unfortunately India was in such a mess admin wise, that when Modi came he fixated on fixing those things. TSP fell to the sides in the things he had to focus on. Putting AJ as Def Min for far too long & then getting Parrikar but then not telling both to prepare for a short term conflict & get at least those tools in place. The confused meandering with Nawaz & the late realization that TSP cannot be trusted. The lack of any firm steps against pro-Pak media houses and their anchors.

He said he knew better but at the end of the day, they have just used the opportunity to target him and India.

That is electoral politics. Promise high and wide to get votes.
The moment Doval became the NSA, we should have guessed about the approach of the government. Looking at Modi's international travels and foreign policy, we must have pondered on the connections being established. TRADE is a key factor, if not the MOST IMPORTANT factor, on how things pan out in this World. Be it ancient Romans, Chinese and Indians trading, be it the ancient Persians, Greeks, Arabs and Indians trading, be it the trade between Arabs and Malabar Indians, be it the trade between S.E.Asia and South India; trade brought in war and changes. Relationships were broken and established.

Maybe the mistake by us in BRF and elsewhere was we looked at the shiny toys being bought and sold, we were caught up in the specifications and the approaching war. We did not think enough about the World order that was being created. Doval and Modi must have clearly and wisely decided that war is never a good option, and to try out peaceful means to knock sense into Pakistan and its 3.5 friends. They cannot be faulted for trying, but many thought he was wandering and acting confused. We chastised him because he won elections talking about bumb sounds and biryani. We thought he will be the Rambo and Commando with 112" chest blasting Pakistan to smithereens at the very first opportunity.

I strongly believe, yes it is just a belief, that Modi/Doval wanted to try peaceful and honest approach with Pakistan; at the same time get the World to trust and NEED India. Trade created the NEED. And friendly overtures towards Pakistan created the TRUST.

India has successfully weaned away Afghanistan and Bangladesh, and turned them totally anti-Pakistan. From the moment PVNR turned India towards S.E.Asia, India saw large opportunities in the region. Imagine two Muslim countries which had previous bad blood with Pakistan now in Indian sphere of influence! It is cutting off Pakistan from S.E.Asia, and pushing it into M.E.Asia. Nepal, Bhutan and SL will be kept in check. Along with Thailand and Burma, the BIMSTEC {https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bay_of_Be ... ooperation} group is gaining more say than SAARC. Long ago I had drawn a Indian Ocean Sphere of Influence map, and this is just part of it. We are yet to focus on Africa, and other Asian partners in ME. If Balochistan becomes free, then it is a feather on the hat.

It looks like MMS wanted to make India economically strong, however by Modi's admission the country was precarious economically. No power would respect India; it needed the time to clean its economic mess.

So the man who stayed in the village, made his family and the village unsafe because he could not control his family. The man walking towards the bus stop had to return fix the village before resuming his journey.

And don't tell me we in BRF - who pride in defense and strategic interests - did not see some of the reality. MMS, giving him the benefit of doubt on his intentions, left India tittering and did not take it in the direction Indians wanted. Modi is dong it. Is there a disagreement there? Is there a consensus that Modi is making India stronger?

tsarkar · Post by **tsarkar** » 20 Sep 2016 09:25

Ashokk wrote:Uri Terror Attack: India To Isolate Pakistan Diplomatically In International Forums
The Director General of Military Operations (DGMO) Lt General Ranbir Singh will hand over this evidence to his Pakistani counterpart as India takes up the matter strongly with Islamabad.

tsarkar wrote:
Sicanta wrote:Is this the counter plan by the gov ....
Sadly yes. Maybe send another dossier of Pakistani stamped AKs. They'll ask for the AK's for a detailed inspection and give them to next BAT.

As I wrote earlier, we gave a dossier to bore them to death at a time and place of our choosing.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 20 Sep 2016 12:41

Reagan's advice,"trust but verify".In the case of Pak unfortunately,the UPA trusted but did not verify.The NDA now ghas also been betrayed and it is no coincidence that it has happened again during the regime of Nawaz Sharif. At this moment in time,with the Panama Paer leaks,Sharif is in the doghouse and has had to join hands with the warmongering Paki military for his own suyrvival.This brinkmanship has to be challenged by India,otherwise Pak will continue to blackmail us over J&K rattling its nuclear sabre.The time is past for us also to rattle our own N-sabre and ram it down the Paki throats that even ..the Dear Lord forbid,there is N-war between us,even if they kill a billion Indians,we will still have 500M Indians alive while Pak will have none. A combined conventional tri-service strike against key Paki military targets is the answer.Their bluff and bluster will collapse after that.

kvjayan · Post by **kvjayan** » 20 Sep 2016 13:24

Why should patriotic folks join the armed forces if they would be ultimately offered as fodder to trespassing jihadi mercenaries, in their own tents/barracks? And, not allowed to retaliate?? All the high and mighty in the sarkar should seriously ponder.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 14:03

India needs a mad leader instead of MAD. A Hindu dictator, who can take the Islamic threat within & from outside by the horns and neutralise it. Imagine if the said leader says what Mao said and he means it - kill a billion Indians if you have to, irradiate half the landmass but India will remain & Indians will remain and we will extract brutal retribution against the perpetrators anywhere in the world, their children, wives, mothers none will be spared.

India needs to be prepared for a nuclear war. The lakhs of traitors within be hanged and our knives sharpened to butcher the Paki bakra. Pakistanis will piss their pants if such a leader comes to India. If the leader of 1.3 billion people says ****** it, we don't have anything to lose but we will finish every one that messed with us, watch everyone run for cover with their pants down.

TKiran · Post by **TKiran** » 20 Sep 2016 14:15

^^^Pakistan has been a useful buffer for India no? No???

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 14:30

We are fooling ourselves if we think Pakistan was an avoidable entity in the Indian subcontinent. Even if India had achieved independence in 1947 as one united country with 30% Muslims, we would be facing far greater issues with a 38-40% Muslim population in the united country. Pakistan is an accumulation of all the dirt from the last 1000 years ago and counting. Unavoidable unless you go back & change history.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Sep 2016 15:02

Let us ask ourselves a few question.

1. Is Bakistan our *real long-term* competitors? If not who?
2. If Bakistan is in ICU who have kept it afloat and why? Who are the 3.5 fiends that we regularly refer to?
3. By threatening to impose nuclear war on the world (Retribution ANYWHERE in the world) do we want to join Bakistan and North Korea? Will that help solve our Bakistan problem? Will that stop terror strike within India?
4. If India and Bakis where to fight *aar-paar ki ladia* with the net result that Bakis where destroyed but India took at a significant loss (10% population, 40% industrial, power, etc) who will benefit? US ascendancy as a super power was *hastened* considerably by the British and Germans having a go at each other.
5. The moment you threaten to impose a nuclear war on the whole world the whole world will unite against you. And you won't even have any backers like North Korea or Bakistan does. Can we handle that? Say the world decided to stop oil exports to India what will you do?

Even the Bakis realize that they have to live in this world and hence cannot make an enemy out of everyone. That is why they take pains to emphasise that their nuclear weapons are India specific.

It is very easy to do armchair strategic analysis but real world is very different. India cannot function even for a year by turning EVERY big country against itself. The mere stoppage of oil imports will bring such a *mard-e-hindu* and India to its knees.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 20 Sep 2016 15:14

So we should keep taking these hits? Everyone worries about everything except what indian public wants. No one says that public is not emotional or that it does not want gratification but these are the chaps who will vote. Atleast pay some attention to them instead of feeding the usual BS about diplomatic measures (here too they can start with the measures suggested in the article posted in the other thread)

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7152&start=440#p2046742

These attacks will intensify further both on scale and scope as naturally Paks will want to further humiliate the nationalistic indian gov. How long before another mumbai occurs?

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 15:30

Nobody is saying throw nuclear weapons at all & sundry but that we will chase & kill every last Pakistani who was involved in the murder of Indians, irrespective of wherever they hide.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 20 Sep 2016 16:18

Uri terror attack: NIA files FIR, begins probe

The NIA team would prepare a dossier and may make a formal request to Pakistan once the identity of the four was ascertained, the sources said.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 20 Sep 2016 16:19

Defence spokesperson in Srinagar confirms ceasefire violation

"I can confirm there has been a ceasefire violation in Uri sector. Details are still awaited," Colonel Rajesh Kalia, defence spokesperson in Srinagar, told Firstpost.

The firing took place at around 2 pm, reports Firstpost correspondent Sameer Yasir.

According to Times Now, Home Minister Rajnath Singh has called up DG, BSF and given a free hand to Indian troops to retaliate.

Action against Pak-based terrorists only after examining issues: Rijiju

Any action against terrorists based in Pakistan will be taken only after examining all relevant issues, Union Minister Kiren Rijiju said.

"Action will be taken after due consideration. Action is not taken after making announcements," he told reporters.

The Minister of State for Home made the remarks when he was asked whether the government was planning to carry out a strike against terrorists camps based in Pakistan.

Boycott Pakistan at Saarc: Afghan envoy

The Afghanistan envoy to India told NDTV that there are ample proofs of state sponsored terrorism from Pakistan and India and Afghanistan must send a decissive message to Islamabad. He further advised India to consider boycotting Pakistan at Saarc stating that those states who sponsor terror must be singled out.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 20 Sep 2016 16:27

One thing jingos must realize is the meaning of the word, "bakistan must be destroyed"

Even the process of destroying and the aftermath will have to be managed carefully.
Pakistan has as many terrorists as iraq and syria do. When massa invaded and dismissed their police and army, a lawless land ensued & in the power vaccum, ISIS was created by the bordering sunni states.

The result of destroying pak fauj will be a lawless land with jihadis running the show. And if all the bums are not accounted for then it is potentially going to be very very bad. This is mostly relevent for Pakjab and KP

There has to be a power that will take over law and order right away. A leadership has to be identified which will have public support, and this has to happen in advance.

Dilbu · Post by **Dilbu** » 20 Sep 2016 16:39

I do not understand why on earth we are discussing the scenarios post destruction of Pakistan and how to manage nuke fallout etc. I will be very happy to see a credible normal effective response to the issue at hand. We always end up discussing the death of TSP when the immediate issue is how many dossiers GOI will hand out to TSP. (Sorry I am really not in the mood today).

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 16:42

I wonder at what rate to Paki diplomats sell the raddi in their country. Indian dossiers must be fetching them a good annual revenue stream at Rs.10 per kilo of raddi.

darshhan · Post by **darshhan** » 20 Sep 2016 16:44

pankajs wrote:Let us ask ourselves a few question.

1. Is Bakistan our *real long-term* competitors? If not who?
2. If Bakistan is in ICU who have kept it afloat and why? Who are the 3.5 fiends that we regularly refer to?
3. By threatening to impose nuclear war on the world (Retribution ANYWHERE in the world) do we want to join Bakistan and North Korea? Will that help solve our Bakistan problem? Will that stop terror strike within India?
4. If India and Bakis where to fight *aar-paar ki ladia* with the net result that Bakis where destroyed but India took at a significant loss (10% population, 40% industrial, power, etc) who will benefit? US ascendancy as a super power was *hastened* considerably by the British and Germans having a go at each other.
5. The moment you threaten to impose a nuclear war on the whole world the whole world will unite against you. And you won't even have any backers like North Korea or Bakistan does. Can we handle that? Say the world decided to stop oil exports to India what will you do?

Even the Bakis realize that they have to live in this world and hence cannot make an enemy out of everyone. That is why they take pains to emphasise that their nuclear weapons are India specific.

It is very easy to do armchair strategic analysis but real world is very different. India cannot function even for a year by turning EVERY big country against itself. The mere stoppage of oil imports will bring such a *mard-e-hindu* and India to its knees.

Who is threatening a nuclear war?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 20 Sep 2016 16:50

Dilbu
The reason I say this is that despite all the bravardo by the pakistani fauj, they have the penchant to suddenly collapse and surrender.
They've done so on numerous occasions. It must be the all round desperation and loss of faith in the future.
OTOH, the mullahs and Jihadis are pretty fired up.
Between the two, I would bet on the mullahs-jihadi team to outlast the Pak fauj. This has security implications

Murugan · Post by **Murugan** » 20 Sep 2016 17:16

Verifiable ?

http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... y-3040769/

10 of the 15 terrorists trying to cross over to the Indian side from Pakistan have been killed by the Army on Tuesday afternoon at Lachipura area of Uri sector in Jammu-Kashmir. The encounter comes just days after four terrorists attacked an Army camp in Uri sector and killed 18 jawans.

Rajat Pandit ‏@rajatpTOI 27m27 minutes ago New Delhi, India
Army kills 8 infiltrators in Uri sector along the LoC in J&K. Operations in progress: Army
4 retweets 3 likes
Reply

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 20 Sep 2016 17:21

Yes
It is being reported in multiple news outlets

SaiK · Post by **SaiK** » 20 Sep 2016 17:22

^^does that mean 5 crossed?

shiv · Post by **shiv** » 20 Sep 2016 17:27

Gagan wrote:One thing jingos must realize is the meaning of the word, "bakistan must be destroyed"

Even the process of destroying and the aftermath will have to be managed carefully.
Pakistan has as many terrorists as iraq and syria do. When massa invaded and dismissed their police and army, a lawless land ensued & in the power vaccum, ISIS was created by the bordering sunni states.

The result of destroying pak fauj will be a lawless land with jihadis running the show. And if all the bums are not accounted for then it is potentially going to be very very bad. This is mostly relevent for Pakjab and KP

There has to be a power that will take over law and order right away. A leadership has to be identified which will have public support, and this has to happen in advance.

In this connection I want to point out something that Christine Fair has written. It will be mitigated by poverty and will be less likely in Sindh and Baluchistan but nevertheless any Indian forces must expect this

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 20 Sep 2016 17:31

Indiatoday flash - Will not tolerate Pak nuclear blackmailing. We will internationally expose Pakistan: @rammadhavbjp

Mahesh_R · Post by **Mahesh_R** » 20 Sep 2016 17:43

Guru's... just thinking.. is this attack related to Bad Sharif getting an extension?
They are anticipating we will respond and Band Sharif will use it an excuse to extend for another 2 years....

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 17:47

Ram Madhav & the likes should keep their mouths shut. This 'we will expose Pakistan' nonsense is not doing anything but makes every self respecting Indian squirm.

saurav_jha · Post by **saurav_jha** » 20 Sep 2016 17:55

Is it possible that the rats today were sent specially to get killed ? To subside anger of IA to some extent, so that PA's forward unit is spared of wrath ?

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 20 Sep 2016 17:59

Chandragupta wrote:Ram Madhav & the likes should keep their mouths shut. This 'we will expose Pakistan' nonsense is not doing anything but makes every self respecting Indian squirm.

+100000
Ram Madhav should shut his all holes. Looks like after the attack he is experiencing diarrhea from both ends.

abhijitm · Post by **abhijitm** » 20 Sep 2016 18:04

saurav_jha wrote:Is it possible that the rats today were sent specially to get killed ? To subside anger of IA to some extent, so that PA's forward unit is spared of wrath ?

Me it looks like today around dozen jaish cadre escaped from indian jail. Fortunately army chased and confronted them and killed in gunfight. I guess we might see similar misadventures by various terrorists lodged in indian jails. Army be better prepared.

Chandragupta · Post by **Chandragupta** » 20 Sep 2016 18:15

^^ Nowhere does it say so that anyone escaped from prison. It sounds like a lion being placated by releasing some goats in front of him to kill to simulate actual hunt. This is not what IA does.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 20 Sep 2016 18:22

How many times have we been over here. Kargil, did we cross the IB and LoC, NO. Parliament Attack, did we cross the IB and LoC, No. Bombay-2008 did we cross the IB and LoC, NO. Pathankot attack did we cross the IB and LoC, NO.

Now URI will we cross the IB and LOC. NO.

Be it BJP or Congress, Modi or Manmohan we will not cross the IB and LoC. After all a ruling establishment which reduces the number of fighters under MMRCA from 100+ to 36 or which shelves the plan to raise a Mountain Strike corp, do you think it will act, off course not. Let us not delude ourselves.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 20 Sep 2016 18:34

or, Bakis have really decided to up the ante during the UNGA session. May be their sense is that this is the final chance to get Kashmir on the global menu and are desperate.

And folks like Madhavji should keep their mouth shut. Making statements does not make any difference.

RoyG · Post by **RoyG** » 20 Sep 2016 19:22

saurav_jha wrote:Is it possible that the rats today were sent specially to get killed ? To subside anger of IA to some extent, so that PA's forward unit is spared of wrath ?

Very likely. The quality of the kill is very low compared to PA regulars. It will not suffice for me.

Bhaskar_T · Post by **Bhaskar_T** » 20 Sep 2016 19:38

Why is that Pakistan has chosen Uri for the second infiltration ? Or there are no other areas 2 infiltrate. This doesn't make sense.

Could the plans by Pakistan be that the second infiltration could attack high profile VIP's reaching the Uri area (Army Chief etc.)?

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 20 Sep 2016 19:48

Looks like they have an infiltration and holding base at Haji Pir pass. Uri lies just north of this, Gulmarg lies east, Poonch lies South of this.

4 pigs were killed last week in poonch, 4 attacked the camp in Uri, A few attacked a police station in Handwara which is further east - north in the valley from Uri, and now 15 tried to cross over around uri.

They are all coming from the Haji-Pir pass area

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Sep 2016 19:53

http://kiranasis.blogspot.in/

Kiran's Thoughts.. As Is

Monday, September 19, 2016

If India has to hit terror factories in Pakistan, be ready for a war with China!

It is about 32 hours since the attack on Uri army camp in India, by Pakistani terrorists. There is tremendous amount of anger in India, specifically in the sections of society which I normally don't see overreact on social media.

This was the front page of paper at my home -"We have had enough!"
Front page of New Indian Xpress, the day after Uri Attack
The overwhelming majority are screaming - Dear Prime Minister.. do something. do quickly..

That "do" can be full fledged war. It can be economic blockade.It can be water stoppage for Sindhu and five rivers of Punjab going into Pakistan.It can be surgical strikes inside Pakistan like India did inside Myanmar last year.It can be as many as there are opinions on social media, papers and TV.

But the big question is.. Can India attack Pakistan this week?
I am sure there is military will power. I am sure there would be enough political will power. I am sure India has plenty of financial cushion to do this. (Pakistan's GDP is smaller than just one state's in India - Maharashtra)I am sure internally there won't be much opposition to India for a small scale surgical strike.

But still.. 69 years of handling of Jammu and Kashmir by India is something we have to look at right now. Can India afford to hit Pakistan where it hurts the most, for Pakistan's obsession with Jihadi terror export all these decades?

While I was looking for some pragmatic answers, amidst very loud war cries that I see in press, TV and social media, I happened to see this tweet set. A very thoughtful set of tweets by the user @vadakkus. From here onward, I am merely reproducing the fantastic probing analysis done by @vadakkus, with very little info from my side. Read it fully and then comment on what Indian government can do, should do, and most importantly, when to do. Vadakkus starts off a tweet storm on the entire Pakistan - India fiasco. There is more than what meets the eye here. And issue is NOT Kashmir. It also does not look like anything to do with Islam, Separatism, Human Rights, Army, AFSPA, Track 2 negotiation and many other things we hear on TV.

It is must deeper than that.. Geo politics!

Why is Pakistan obsessed with Kashmir? I have always wondered what makes Kashmir so attractive to Pakistan, that they are willing to keep the issue burning forever. What IS there?

{Prem Shekhar, a well known Kannada columnist informed a few weeks that Pakistan had even offered to give up East Pakistan in 1950s, in return for Jammu and Kashmir on the sidelines of official discussions with India! So definitely it is not religion or Kashmiris.. it is much deeper than that. It was water sources then, but now much more deeper...}

Why is India so reluctant to hit back at Pakistan? Also why does India always seem to be unable to retaliate to Pakistan in kind (it should, totally) and pussyfoots around Pakistan, despite all the atrocities it commits in India from daily incursions in Kashmir to the Mumbai attacks. They spend too much money on all this and the country, despite no visible revenue-generating industry (terrorism no revenue) has managed to survive until today, develop nukes and has so much international clout? Where does it get its money from? Why?? Why is India reluctant to strike? There must be reasons.

Yes, water is an issue. The Indus and its tributaries. But where do they get money to keep the issue alive? There is more to this than water. Today, someone told me about this thing and I was stumped about how bloody obvious this is, and even then, NOBODY in India talks about this!

It is China... stupid.. It is China and CPEC: The "thing" is the CPEC: China-Pakistan Economic Corridor. If you look at it closely suddenly everything falls into place. Kashmir, Balochistan, India's unwillingness to strike, silence of international community, everything else. Pakistan is just a front.

The real sponsor is hiding behind.

Maybe it is because Indian method of viewing everything in black & white. Pakistan sponsors terrorism to get Kashmir. It is not that simple. Pakistan kept the Kashmir flame burning until the 1990s to meet their ends, when China conceived the CPEC and decided to take over. A bit on the CPEC as no one seems to have heard about it. China has a huge geographic handicap: no access to southern world oceans.

So Chinese shipments from Europe, Middle East, Africa have to travel all the way around India, Malacca and ASEAN. China has serious problems with most countries in that region due to its aggressive military posture.

CPEC Need. Source - Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.

Why Pakistan is so important for Chinese economy? What if China could get a route through Pakistan to access the Arabian Sea? That line in blue. Look at it, so much distance, money saved! That, is the CPEC. A corridor of highways and railways will run from Kashgar in China to Gwadar in Pakistan (Baluchistan) on the Arabian sea near Iran border. And ALL the infrastructure and associated stuff for CPEC will be constructed for Pakistan by China, free or cost or for negligible loans.

What is CPEC?Four Six-lane Expressways from north to south Pakistan, four different routes. All main railway lines being upgraded to 160 kph double. A six to eight lane super expressway Karachi to Gwadar and Hyderabad Innumerable coal, thermal, solar and hydro power plants all across Pakistan. All of Gwadar, including a mega international airport! Then Hospitals, schools, colleges, tech institutes, even a Metro line in Lahore!

And of course, the capstone: reconstruction of the Karakoram highway to six to four lanes. All projects listed here. Click, zoom and read.

CPEC Map. Source Twitter. Please excuse since J&K map is not as per India's standards.

But why is Jammu and Kashmir involved here? Now, on the Karakoram highway, this is where it matters most for India. It connects China and Pakistan, though India! Through Jammu and Kashmir, which legally acceded to India in 1947 October. This is a route map of the Karakoram highway (grey). Look at the top,inside the red circle. It is Gilgit Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir state, which legally belongs to India, but illegally occupied by Pakistan. Keep in mind, China also occupies illegally the eastern and northern part of Jammu and Kashmir - Shaksgam valley (gifted by Pakistan in 1960s) and Aksai Chin (occupied by China in 1950s when it annexed Tibet).

Karakoram highway location. Map from Wiki. Not per India's J&K map standards.

The highway passes through Gilgit-Baltistan, Pakistan Occupied Kashmir. The red line is the LOC. Pakistan and China are connected through Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (PoK for short). Pakistan calls this Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir, as Northern Territories sometimes.

More on Karakoram highway: Soon to be a 4/6 lane highway through some of the world's toughest terrain. A high-capacity highway across the Himalayas!

Now, though the CPEC is a recent thing, the idea had taken birth long back. The Karakoram highway started building in 1959, opened in 1979! Possibly Pakistan had refused China access to Gwadar then as they could. But now they have no other choice but hand over to China.

Why CPEC? OIL: Gwadar is just 400 km away from Muscat and 500 from the Strait of Hormuz through which all Gulf oil passes. 12 hours at sea! Proximity to Africa: China virtually owns much of Africa today. Billions in investment, buys natural resources. Nothing better than this. Pakistan as a market: China will flood Pakistan and Gulf with its cheap products and make a windfall there too. Proximity to new friend Sri Lanka.If USA/UK (control Malacca strait - Singapore) or India in Indian ocean decide to choke it, China will have no problem as it has CPEC.

But, all of CPEC and China's ambitions bearing fruit depends on the Karakoram highway. That depends on PoK continued to be occupied by Pakistan.

Money Involved: With the CPEC, China has sunk close to 50 BILLION Dollars in Pakistan. Of course, China gets free access to all this infrastructure in Pakistan. With this, 20% of Pakistan's GDP is now Chinese. China has Pakistan now firmly by the b***s, so much so that Pakistan can now be China's 24th province. With so much invested and at stake, China wouldn't even think twice about ruthlessly suppressing any attack on Pakistan,because they own it now.

Doesn't India know all this? Of course India knows all this. If we were to attack Pakistan, we would have to deal with China. Pakistan is small fry. China is not.

Who would side with India? Mostly nobody. Why? Because China is involved. How international geopolitics work, most don't get that either. USA wants to support us because China makes it nervous. But US corporations are over invested in China, so Uncle Sam will look the other way. Russia - Don't even think about it. Putin has enough troubles at home, and India's pandering to Obama hasn't got him amused. Europe will sit just and watch (because China), and all of the Middle East will (clandestinely) support Pakistan for obvious reasons (Islam).

People think alliances between countries are forget like high school friendships - on emotional grounds of some sort - No. Not at all. International friendships are always based on "how can I benefit by allying", "what terrible can this guy do to me if I don't ally".

So, India will left out cold if it were to as much as touch Pakistan. We will mostly have to take on BOTH Pakistan and China. Mostly. Can India take on both Pakistan and China alone? From two (or three) flanks? We are surrounded by China's friends. What do we do? Dunno.

A bit more on the Karakoram highway: 1962, remember? What if the Chinese were testing the Indian waters before building the highway? China could've walked through India. Still, they withdrew. They were only testing India's resolve to defend PoK if it came to that. We have all but written off PoK. All Wikipedia articles tell all of PoK as "Pakistan". Not Pakistan administered", but Pakistan. Hurts

Here is the Khunjerab Pass (PoK): the "top" of India, the border between India and China, but now Pakistan.

A sign in Pakistan Occupied Kashmir - Source Twitter

Here is the Karakoram highway near Gilgit in India (PoK) and under construction somewhere in the mountains. It should be obvious by now that China does NOT want India to reclaim its land lost to Pakistan in 1947 and 1948 - the strategic Karakoram ranges in Gilgit-Baltistan area of Jammu and Kashmir. It is as simply as that!

Karakoram Highway in PoK part of Jammu and Kashmir state. Pics - Twitter

Here is the entire map of the Karakoram Highway from Kashgar to Rawalpindi. Look where all it passes through.

Karakoram highway map.

China owns Pakistan for most part today:CPEC and all associated stuff are called "China-Pakistan Friendship" something or the other. No friendship there. Just Chinese business. China is not doing business with Pakistan. It is running its business in Pakistan. It is running Pakistan. China pays for protection. If things get push to shove, China can tell US: "We will nationalize your businesses if you don't tell India to withdraw". What will we do?

What we should first realize is that there is no Pakistan. There is only China. Pakistan is just a front. We should deal accordingly. It is in China's interest to keep Kashmir burning. If there is peace in the valley, India MIGHT set its eyes on PoK. Chinese know that India has a strong Prime Minister today who can think of that. China does not want India to even think of getting PoK back. Of course, China did not light the Kashmir fire, but it certainly looks like it is them who keeps it burning that no consensus is reached. So, in addition to water, religion, ego, demographics and so on there is one more reason behind the Kashmir unrest: China and CPEC.

Is dialogue with Pakistan sensible? It is utter foolishness to think that in such a case we can resolve this through dialogue! We talk one thing while issue is another! Issue is NOT what we think is the issue! We and our govt should first understand this. I am sure they have. Hopefully they aren't helpless. China is waging a proxy-proxy-deceptive war which we cannot understand or prove or blame. We need to mobilize some other way.

War with Pakistan? Vadakkus said at the end - I am not generally not a warmonger, but this has gone too far. We should strike. Do something. I only wish something be done about those 17 Indian soldiers who were killed without any provocation. They didn't have to die. Take on both China and Pakistan. Maybe. Can we? I don't know what we should do. Hopefully our hands aren't tied and someone is coming up with a plan to hit them. Hopefully.

Baluchistan's role: Why Pakistan got all worked up when India raised Balochistan? Gwadar is in Balochistan. Much of CPEC infra passes through Balochistan. The CPEC is China's hope at lifting its sagging economy and securing its strategic position in the region. Its future maybe depends on it. Karakoram- Hindukush- Pamir region since ancient times been strategically sensitive. The Silk Road. China wants control of the new Silk Road. If India were to take PoK we would squeeze the Karakoram Highway shut. No more CPEC, Silk Road. China done for. That is the whole game. Highways are primary military conduits rather than civilian. Whoever controls the highway controls the region.

Ultimately.. Pakistan's ultimate aim is to establish an Islamic caliphate. Apart from this China helps them through CPEC. You might disagree with Modi et al but please support the govt right now in whatever action it takes. Politicking can wait. Wait two more months before taking any harsh decisions. Things might change post November.

What do you think India should do now, after reading this fully?

Sachin · Post by **Sachin** » 20 Sep 2016 20:22

Eight militants killed in Uri as Army foils infiltration

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 20 Sep 2016 20:29

http://www.firstpost.com/india/uri-terr ... 12184.html

Uri terror attack: Blame must go all the way up to Army Chief Gen Dalbir Singh Suhag

K Yatish Rajawat Sep 20, 2016

Now that the rhetoric of war has died down, it is time to calmly analyse what really happened at Uri.

It was a military failure and the blame rests not only with the unit commanders — two of them, as per the number of casualties recorded. Certainly, the brigade commander under whose command this incident took place is equally at fault; so to is the core commander and the blame must go all the way up to the Chief of Army Staff. The death of the soldiers was not because of the militants. Their deaths were the result of a joint failure of the leadership. It was a system failure.

The Indian Army under General Dalbir Singh Suhag has not really learnt lessons after Pathankot. After the Pathankot attacks, blame was conveniently passed between the air force and the army. Let's be clear: The security of Pathankot airbase is the responsibility of the army and nobody else. Suhag has failed to secure the system or to bring a sense of urgency to the system. It is more unfortunate that he has not taken responsibility of this failure in Uri. Poor leadership is also defined by the inability to take responsibility.

Uri is close to the Line of Control and is known for the presence of sleeper cells and sympathisers of extremists. This is something that the army and intelligence is aware of, and it has been ignored judging by the fact that the attackers were able to get inside an army camp. An army camp so close to LoC cannot have such lax security there are no excuses for the laxity. The laxity in a unit command is a sign that action is not being taken at the top-most echelon of the army.

Action was not taken after Pathankot happened; in fact, Suhag brushed it off as if nothing happened.

Instead, what we have is the Director-General, Military Operations (DGMO) giving us homilies and a Wikipedia feed about Jaish-e-Mohammad.

When Pathankot happened, Suhag diverted the issue in his press conference. He did not own up to the failure of the area commander in Pathankot, he did not own up to his own responsibility. On 13 January this year, Suhag said that there was 'no issue of coordination' between the different agencies. Why did he divert the focus and responsibility of the army in securing all establishments in the area? The Ministry of Defence and the political leadership also calmly accepted and are equally guilty of allowing Uri to happen.

The army chain of command has eroded and Uri is a sign of the same laxity.

The army works on a system of responsibility: If the platoon commander does not take full responsibility of guarding his post, the system fails. The system fails because it is responsibility that is considered supreme and it is the reason a soldier lays down his life to save his post. If the top leadership does not show the same kind of leadership, why should a soldier sacrifice his life? A lack of courage in accepting responsibility affects the whole line of command. The army has a whole standard operating procedure laid down for such failures.

The death of the soldiers was not because of the militants. Their deaths were the result of a joint failure of the leadership. It was a system failure.

It was not followed during Pathankot and it look as if it is not going to be followed after Uri. The failure of command is closely monitored in the army; every incident of failure and refusal to accept responsibility weakens the system. What was needed after Uri was for Suhag to address the issue directly. It is not right for him to hide under the wave of nationalism sweeping the country. The army command cannot respond like politicians and use the media as a diversion and hide its own failure. If the army leadership starts behaving like politicians, we can effectively wave goodbye to the army as an institution.

The reason things still function in the army is because of certain core principles. I'm afraid those core principle are lost under the current leadership. Those 20 soldiers died because of poor leadership. It will happen again and will keep happening till a strong decision is taken to correct this weak leadership.

The author is a policy commentator based in New Delhi. He tweets @yatishrajawat

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 20 Sep 2016 20:35

People are demanding for either a full fledged war with Pakis or a punitive strike.

1. The war option
The war needs to have a clear objective without which it is meaningless. What should be our objective of war? Presumably breaking pakistan into at least two pieces (like we did in 1971). This is not a small feat and requires a lot of planning, stockpiling and diplomatic preparation for the world opinion to be favorable when the war finally ends. Only few at the top know how much time will it take to sufficiently prepare for the war militarily after UPA's disastrous 10 years rule. But we can already see the diplomatic efforts to convert the world opinion in favor of India.

2. Punitive strike option
This is a fair demand but unfortunately wrt pakis it will be fruitless as we know that sole purpose of their existence is to destroy India. So while it will send some shiver in their salvar, it will not deter them eternally. They will keep practicing their 1000 cuts doctrine.

So while punitive strike will give some satisfaction to us and save our H&D for the time being, it doesn't solve any problem. The only solution is
to break pakistan into multiple pieces which we can handle easily. We MUST move forward in this direction only. We MUST NOT be distracted from this objective. The option of punitive strike might be counter productive towards this objective.

What I think is (which can be dismissed as wishful thinking as well, but still I will present my opinion) that MAD has a clear cut plan to break pakistan in a definite timeline. They are advancing in their plan but the right time has not come yet. They don't want to be distracted in their plan, especially when it is working (referring to creating a favorable world opinion). As far as I can see, they are preparing militarily as well. They have put adequate resources on chinese border to check their moves during an Ind vs. Pak scenario. The real challenge here is that how fast we can defeat pakistan in a war. This is essential because we don't want to give china enough time to make their moves. Game needs to be finished before anyone can react.

Are we sufficiently equipped to do that? May be we are not currently.
When is the earliest we can be prepared for this? Time will tell!

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 20 Sep 2016 20:58

abhijitm wrote:
Chandragupta wrote:Ram Madhav & the likes should keep their mouths shut. This 'we will expose Pakistan' nonsense is not doing anything but makes every self respecting Indian squirm.
+100000
Ram Madhav should shut his all holes. Looks like after the attack he is experiencing diarrhea from both ends.

Two points:
1) In 1971 Mrs. Gandhi went to all world capitals and informed them of what Pakistan is doing in East Pakistan and the consequences borne by India. When the war came in December 1971, they had no chance to claim unawareness.
2) Ram Madhav is the BJP incharge of J&K. And talking about J&K is quite appropriate for him.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 20 Sep 2016 21:04

ramana wrote: 1) In 1971 Mrs. Gandhi went to all world capitals and informed them of what Pakistan is doing in East Pakistan and the consequences borne by India. When the war came in December 1971, they had no chance to claim unawareness.

Very important point, Ramana garu. We have seen (and in fact, even criticized) Modi for going on many trips to several world capitals over the last two years... which, in fact, was exactly what IG did in the year or so before 1971. We assume that Modi goes to discuss trade/investment and only trade/investment. Do we know for a fact that Bakistan (and what India intends to do about it) has never been on the agenda at any of those discussions?

There is a difference between long-term strategic response and immediate tactical reaction. This should not have to be explained to people on BRF.

Christopher Sidor · Post by **Christopher Sidor** » 20 Sep 2016 21:15

SwamyG wrote: That is electoral politics. Promise high and wide to get votes.
The moment Doval became the NSA, we should have guessed about the approach of the government. Looking at Modi's international travels and foreign policy, we must have pondered on the connections being established. TRADE is a key factor, if not the MOST IMPORTANT factor, on how things pan out in this World. Be it ancient Romans, Chinese and Indians trading, be it the ancient Persians, Greeks, Arabs and Indians trading, be it the trade between Arabs and Malabar Indians, be it the trade between S.E.Asia and South India; trade brought in war and changes. Relationships were broken and established.

And where did this jet setting land up? We got still blocked in NSG. India is still running a trade deficit and also a current account deficit.

SwamyG wrote: Maybe the mistake by us in BRF and elsewhere was we looked at the shiny toys being bought and sold, we were caught up in the specifications and the approaching war. We did not think enough about the World order that was being created. Doval and Modi must have clearly and wisely decided that war is never a good option, and to try out peaceful means to knock sense into Pakistan and its 3.5 friends. They cannot be faulted for trying,

They can be faulted for trying. Insanity is repeating the same thing over and over again expecting a different result each time. Atleast Manmohan had the grace never to visit and land on Paki-Land. He maintained that much dignity. Also he has to be praised to actually pass the proposal to raise the Mountain Strike division for IA in the east.
You are being Charitable with Modi. MMS fault was the job less growth of UPA-II and the back breaking 11% or higher inflation for a series of years. He paid a very heavy price of that and I am not sad because of that. MMS, Congress and the Cambridge+Harvard duo got what was coming for them. Good riddance I would say.

SwamyG wrote: It looks like MMS wanted to make India economically strong, however by Modi's admission the country was precarious economically. No power would respect India; it needed the time to clean its economic mess.

So the man who stayed in the village, made his family and the village unsafe because he could not control his family. The man walking towards the bus stop had to return fix the village before resuming his journey.

And don't tell me we in BRF - who pride in defense and strategic interests - did not see some of the reality. MMS, giving him the benefit of doubt on his intentions, left India tittering and did not take it in the direction Indians wanted. Modi is dong it. Is there a disagreement there? Is there a consensus that Modi is making India stronger?

Sir ji IMHO, Modi is not making India Stronger. His Make in India is converting into make-obsolete items in India. Case in point the proposed plan to make F-16 and F-18 in India. For whom IAF and IN? Another case in point reduction in the number of fighters from 100+ to 36 in MMRCA on basis on some flawed argument against Total Life cycle cost and how the cost of the aircraft was calculated. Another case in point what happened to the Mountain strike division? Another case in point is the purchase of Chinkook heavy lift helicopters which USA is phasing out, we are turning into enthusiastic buyers. Sir you asked what has Modi done to make India Stronger. I say NOTHING.

We are being very very charitable with BJP and Modi. If the same action had been done by Congress or some other party then we would have had a strom of protest and how a foreigner is more interested in Italy than what happens in India.