In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

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In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack, I believe GOI will take the following action:

1) Lot of hot air and bleating but no visible action in the foreseeable future.
81
43%
2) Heavy shelling of PA positions across LoC, but no more
28
15%
3) Significant covert strikes on select targets deep inside Pakistan.
57
30%
4) Significant covert + conventional (IBG, IN, IAF) strikes deep inside Pakistan
19
10%
5) Aar-paar ki ladai
2
1%
 
Total votes: 187

Shanmukh
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Shanmukh » 21 Sep 2016 02:30

@Ramana-ji,
As for Baluchistan, Baluchis have claims on Afghan Baluchistan too. Afghans won't look too kindly on ripping out a part of their own country. Neither will Iran.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 21 Sep 2016 02:52

Shanmukh wrote:@Shiv-ji, @Rudradev-ji,
I used the 1971 events to show the difference in propaganda. No one could doubt that we were very serious about Bangladesh in 1971. There isn't anything similar to show that we are serious about Baluchistan or PoJK. Of course, this can change, but for now, there is no comparison between Bangladesh propaganda & Baluchistan propaganda.


Shanmukh-ji, surely you recognize that not only were there very significant differences between India's overall ability to exploit the Baluch vs Bangla situations (geography being a major one)... but we simply may not be at the same point on the continuum of intervention with regard to Baluchistan, right now, as we were on the continuum leading to Bangladesh, at the time AIR was carrying a steady broadcast of Bangladesh propaganda. Not to mention a myriad other factors involved, including Iran's and Afghanistan's interest in Baluchistan as you have pointed out yourself. Making these comparisons to argue that "we are not doing anything onlee" is pointless IMHO.

IG operated in a different world. A bipolar world where economic strength wasn't dictated according to a WB/IMF framework monopolized by a single entity or economic system. She could talk about garibi hatao and run huge schemes that fed corrupt officials and did nothing, ever, for the people. She could embrace a socialist system where there was neither expectation nor delivery of governance. As long as she cultivated the USSR she didn't have to worry about GDP or credit ratings or trade or paying cash for strategic supplies or any of the rest of it. So yes, she had a luxury in terms of being able to prioritize support to the Bangladesh movement over anything else. It IS to her credit that she did that, and did it well.

However, the current GOI enjoys no such luxury, and has to go about destroying Pakistan in a different way. Making comparisons of specific techniques used, in isolation from every other factor to be considered, is of polemical value and little else. For a ceteris paribus assessment the only reasonable basis of comparison is the MMS/Sonia regime, perhaps the Vajpayee regime at a stretch.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Shanmukh » 21 Sep 2016 03:18

@Rudradev-ji,
i don't mean to deny your points. My specific point is: We are nowhere nearly in the same class of propaganda & seriousness about Baluchistan that we were about Bangladesh as of now. And I am not sure anyone in the neighbourhood (Iran & Afghanistan, to be precise) want an independent Baluchistan. If we actually get close to ripping Baluchistan out of Pakistan, no one should doubt that the Pakistani army will do another Bangladeshi genocide in Baluchistan. This would send millions of people fleeing into both Afghanistan, Iran (& neither wants them) & probably India too (do we want another WB-Assam type mess in Gujarat-Rajasthan, if a million Baluchi Muslims flee there?). Maybe India intends to use Baluchistan as a pressure point & no more?

My only point was: Our seriousness & propaganda regarding Baluchistan is not remotely comparable to our propaganda on Bangladesh.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 21 Sep 2016 03:32

Shanmukh wrote:@Ramana-ji,
As for Baluchistan, Baluchis have claims on Afghan Baluchistan too. Afghans won't look too kindly on ripping out a part of their own country. Neither will Iran.

The way things are going, please remember Ashraf Ghani's statement about changing borders in concert with India.

Afghanistan wants KP. That is why they blew up the gate that pakistan was trying to build at the Chaman border crossing. The Durand line is dead, the boundaries of Afghanistan extend upto the Indus.

Balochistan will be mostly be the riasat-e-kalat, which was south of Quetta. The baloch people are spread across Iran, afghanistan and balochistan, but the main grouse was Jinnah's annexation of the state of kalat.

Sindhudesh is now ratcheting up too.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Prem » 21 Sep 2016 03:45


Manish_Sharma
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Manish_Sharma » 21 Sep 2016 03:48

She has a point :

India shouldn't fear nuclear reprisal on Pakistan-sponsored terrorism:
Defence expert Christine Fair

Criticising Pakistan-sponsored terror against India, Fair said, "I have never heard any Pakistani say they will not send a terror team because India has nuclear weapons."

IndiaToday.in | Edited by Ashna Kumar
New Delhi, September 21, 2016 | UPDATED 02:02 IST

Highlights

1
Never heard any Pakistani say they will not send terrorists because India has nuclear weapons: Fair
2
India cannot expect support unless it officially declares Pakistan a state sponsor of terror.
3
Waging a diplomatic war is just not enough.

Talking to India Today about India's retaliation against Pakistan after the Uri terror attack, Georgetown University professor and an expert on India-Pakistan relations Christine Fair said that India shouldn't exercise restraint fearing nuclear reprisal from Pakistan.

Criticising Pakistan-sponsored terror against India, Fair said, "I have never heard any Pakistani say they will not send a terror team because India has nuclear weapons."

She says that India's nuclear arsenal should in fact give it immunity and impunity to prosecute sub-state terrorism sponsored by Pakistan.

HOLES IN PAKISTAN'S NUCLEAR DOCTRINE

Fair pointed holes in Pakistan's nuclear doctrine saying that it required Pakistan "to first detonate a nuclear tactical weapon in its air space as a warning to Indian troops and then the second level of escalation over a border transgression would call for the use of nuclear weaponry.

If Pakistan bursts a weapon in its airspace, it will immediately run a risk of knocking out its commanding communication."

"Secondly, If Indian troops transgress into a populated city like Sialkot or Lahore, Pakistan will suffer more fatalities than on Indian troops. Therefore, this battlefield calculation gives India a lot of wriggle room to retaliate than to exercise restraint," she said.

BALOCHISTAN CARD DEMOTES LARGER ISSUE

The professor also warned India against breaching the Indus water treaty with Pakistan, arguing that it will be an unjust answer because India will end up punishing innocent Pakistanis and not those who launched the terror attack.

Fair is strongly averse to India's plan of sending ministers to foreign countries in order to garner support against Pakistan. She says, "It is a little too much to ask others to do it," adding that India cannot expect support unless it officially declares Pakistan a state sponsor of terror.

Asking India to focus on Pakistan seeding unrest in Kashmir and not on Balochistan, she advised - "If India plays the Balochistan card to UN, it would merely look like a 'tit for tat' situation, thereby demoting the larger issue of sub-state terrorism."

WHY IS CHINA DEFENDING THE INDEFENSIBLE

Fair wanted India to pull in China into the debate as they have been defending Pakistant blatantly. It will put China in a hot seat, when India raises the terror issue in UN.

"Why is China defending the indefensible?" asked Fair.

Waging a diplomatic war is just not enough, Fair said.

"Don't expect diplomatic isolation is going to stop Pakistan from using terror as tool for foreign policy," she added.


http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/uri-terror-attack-pakistan-india-nuclear-war-christine-fair-terrorism/1/769343.html

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Manish_Sharma » 21 Sep 2016 04:19



2011 video, NaMo himself says, "pakistan came killed us, and our mantri ji goes to america and starts crying, then pleads obama obama hamein bachao, pakistan se bachao"

Rajat Sharma : "If you were incharge at time of 26/11 what you'd have done?"

NaMo : "Mujhe der nahin lagti... mujhe der nahin lagti" , "Even today I say answer pakistan in its own language, stop writing love letters"

Rajat Sharma: But international pressure is also there, that too has to kept in mind.

NaMo: "In fact creating international pressure is in our hands, its 100 crore nation we have the power to pressurise the whole world..."
"Why this reverse ganga flowing, I am surprised jee, pakistan killed us and went back, pakistan attacked us in mumbai and mantri ji goes and cries in pakistan, obama save us..."
pakistan is expert in lying, they can say anything, even now they have sent a list of 30 questions to us...and Govt. of Hindustan is busy writing their answers.... Pakistan has to be answered in their own language... "

But all he did even more, letting pakistani establishment in pathankot airbase etc....

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 21 Sep 2016 05:05

ANIVerified account
‏@ANI_news
Baramulla (J&K): Srinagar to Muzaffarabad (PoK) bus service 'Karwan-e-Aman' resumes.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Manish_Sharma » 21 Sep 2016 05:39

Don't know how true this is, its from fb :

http://tinyurl.com/hrcmmsb

#BREAKING
Pakistan army preparing for war
Pakistan Airforce has Deployed Fighter Squadron at Skardu, PoK .

#Zeenews3hrsback
Still we cannot ascertain its authenticity. We also cannot say what fighter jets are being deployed. If its F16s or JF17 or any other aircraft

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Vivek K » 21 Sep 2016 06:05

Improve operational readiness to project asymmetric response capability! Stop pussy footing with Rafale and FGFA. History will castrate IAF brass for these colossal blunders!!

IAF needs to work with DRDO (and DRDO with IAF) to look at ways and means to producing 50 LCAs per year! Buy 500 GE engines, 500 LCAs, 1500 Arjuns, 1500 Dhanush or whatever the new Indian artillery gun is called, more Pinaka 2 batteries, Expedite all Arihants, engage L&T in sub building and order 10 new subs .

GOI cannot order retaliatory strikes because the armed forces and their corrupt procurement mafia insist on foreign toys that always need spares. And the IA blows up ammunition dumps periodically directly affecting war fighting capabilities.

The armed forces and their penchant for foreign toys has made India weak. This weakness limits the hands of the political establishment.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 21 Sep 2016 06:13

What is Pakistan upto?
Deploying fighters in their one and only airbase in POK - Skardu, what do they think they are doing?

India has 7 big bad airbases in J&K, with fighters permanently deployed in 3 of them

Pakis want to commit Soosai

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 06:32

JayS wrote:@Shiv
A question for you. I some of your previous posts you mentioned that perhaps Pak is expecting India to react in rash manner. May be so. But I am thinking looking ta the history, Pakis always have assumed that Hindu baniyas are too weak to fight back and under this self-delusion they have went on to have Wars with us. Whole premise of Kargil was based on typical lack of retaliation from India quickly - they were taken aback by our heavy response. When we have not crossed LoC during Kargil, we have not taken any significant action after Mumbai or Pathankot, what is so different now that Pakis are expecting India to act rashly and retaliate immediately?? That too when there is a possibility that even they might not have expected such high death toll, which resulted due to fire mainly. I somehow find it difficult to digest the fact that Bakis were expecting us to react immediately when the history has proved time and again they believe the exact opposite and GoI is hell bent on proving them right again and again. Not even with the UNGA factor taken into account.


Interesting points.

Actually Kargil seemed to follow the text of an article by Lt Gen (?) Javid Nasir in a Paki army journal that the Indian army is tired and will not be able to fight back. That apart it is part of Paki army ethos to display bravado and mock and taunt India and claim that Indians are weak or cowardly and will not be able to hit back. But claiming such things is dangerous without having a serious "plan B" of what they will do if the cowardly Indians do hit back. Pakistanis have made this error of judgement more at a strategic level rather than at a tactical level.

At a tactical level many accounts of battles with Pakistanis in both land battles and air battles show that they do attack, expect retaliation, prepare defences against retaliation and counter attack after beating back the retaliation. This latter behaviour is part of good military training and causes casualties among Indians. So it would be unwise for Indians to expect "typically stupid" Pakistani behaviour. The report I saw a few minutes ago of F-16s in Skardu suggests that Pakis expect some retaliation

The former behaviour of mocking kafirs and not having any plan B is actually astounding - but bravado and talking about the superiority of Muslim forces against Kafirs could be part of delusional religious indoctrination. Although there are accounts that this indoctrination multiplied manifold after the Zia era in 1974, accounts from the 1965 war also have examples where Pakistani soldiers "saw" green jinns leading forces and even Air Cmde "Nosey" Haider who lead a successful air raid on Pathankot in 1965 recounts in his autobiography that he had asked for each pilot in that raid be offered a bucket of cologne just before take-off so that they may smell sweet for houris in jannat in case they were halaled.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby ramana » 21 Sep 2016 06:40

Unfair didi bats for US interests as she is a US citizen. Her advice to India is interesting and unwanted.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby partha » 21 Sep 2016 06:46

ramana wrote:Unfair didi bats for US interests as she is a US citizen. Her advice to India is interesting and unwanted.

+1 my thought too. See how cleverly she suggests bringing in China into the bilateral problem.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 21 Sep 2016 06:59

Gagan wrote:What is Pakistan upto?
Deploying fighters in their one and only airbase in POK - Skardu, what do they think they are doing?

India has 7 big bad airbases in J&K, with fighters permanently deployed in 3 of them

Pakis want to commit Soosai


Why will they do this? Skardu is less then 100 km from LoC.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 21 Sep 2016 07:06

Skardu is an ad-hoc base. Fighters are not permanently stationed there.
This is only showbazi by Pakistan.
These guys will be massacred by the IAF.
They should be hiding in Kamra and Quetta

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Sep 2016 07:35

Rudradev wrote:
Christopher Sidor wrote:Thank you for concurring with the fact that this PM has neither the vision or the guts to do what IG did in 1971 or to what LBS did in 1965.


You arbitrarily pronounce some deadline by which, if you do not see visible action against Pakistan, it means this PM doesn't have vision or guts. When I don't accept a bet placed on the basis of this arbitrary deadline, you conclude that I concur with your view. OK. Whatever makes you feel better, sir.

Alright so let us say that Modi is unable to do what IG did in 1 year. Let us also say that I have proununced an arbitrarily deadline. So let us agree with a timeline, by which date should either Modi take back PoK or better still destroy Pakistan. Please give us a date. And the point that was missed even now is that you know in hearts of your hearts that Modi will do nothing. Yes an inconsequential raid may be offered as lollipop and they will stand in front of us with their chest swollen that we did this, thumping their chest. But will the ISI pay for what has happened, no. Will JEM/LET leaders be hit, No.


Rudradev wrote:
Christopher Sidor wrote:Wow a bet which was not offered was taken. Blinkers is the word which comes to my mind.


Blinkers are worn by many people in many ways.

Every single one of us feels the pain of every citizen of India who lost a father, brother, or son to the filthy swine who attacked Uri this week.

Not all of us, however, translate our empathy (along with the absence of immediate, visible retaliation against Pakistan) into the conclusion that Modi GOI has no guts, no vision, and is no better than UPA II.

Not all of us are so easily manipulated by the media to dance to their tune. With respect, that suggests the presence of some seriously opaque blinkers.

Modi has no Guts was clear in the aftermath of Pathankot attack. That time we let go because I had a benefit of doubt. But after this attack it is different. Misgivings were building up ever since his partner in J&K ruined everything and BJP just stood by. BJP did not even have the decency of walking away, just because they have a higher purpose Congress-Mukt-Bharat. Not Terrorism-Mukuth-Bharat, Not Pakistan-Mukht-Kashmir, Not PLA-Mukht-Kashmir. Sir please see what is going around you. Rome is burning and the glorified Nemo is doing nothing. In 2.5 years he has done nothing to reverse the so called hallowing out of our Armed Forces.
Last edited by Christopher Sidor on 21 Sep 2016 07:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Sep 2016 07:44

Vivek K wrote:Improve operational readiness to project asymmetric response capability! Stop pussy footing with Rafale and FGFA. History will castrate IAF brass for these colossal blunders!!

It is not the IAF brass sir, it is our most honest defence minister Mr Manohar Parrikar at whose feet this has to be laid. He did in one year what Anthony was trying to do in 5years. And now most likely we will get F-16 or F-18 under some Make-in-India-Obsolete-platforms programme. We will get those fighters which we cannot use against PakiLand.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 07:50

Christopher Sidor wrote:Modi has no Guts was clear in the aftermath of Pathankot attack. That time we let go because I had a benefit of doubt. But after this attack it is different. Misgivings were building up ever since his partner in J&K ruined everything and BJP just stood by. BJP did not even have the decency of walking away, just because they have a higher purpose Congress-Mukt-Bharat. Not Terrorism-Mukuth-Bharat, Not Pakistan-Mukht-Kashmir, Not PLA-Mukhtiar-Kashmir. Sir please see what is going around you. Rome is burning and the glorified Nemo is doing nothing. In 2.5 years he has done nothing to reverse the so called hallowing out of our Armed Forces.

:D Christopher Sidor ji it might be much easier to dub Modi a worthless napunsak and move on from there. That leaves us with two routes to follow in the debate

1. The political argument about the uselessness of Modi and how he as a wily politician will make political moves to cover his ass and stay in power
2. The military argument about what it will take to comprehensively defeat the Pakistani army.

The problem with combining 2 separate issues in one discussion is that it becomes a torn-shirt open fly affair. When there is a military related question to answer the argument simply shifts to Modi's stupidity and weakness, and gives the impression that there is no military deficiency but all political.

Personally I like to treat this issue in the following manner:

A. The "Dream Sequence". In this our leader is bold and faultless and will do everything that I think is right. Here I only discuss what the military needs
B. The "Reality coffee" : here we acknowledge that leaders are not perfect

Mixing the two only leads to useless argument.

i would ask people to declare Modi as stupid and worthless and then take up the military and political questions separately

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 07:58

The following two posts have all the answers - we are now close to arriving at the exact reasons why Pakistan is a problem. This is the end result of deep introspection and searching internally for answers about Pakistan. The answers are within ourselves. "Doosron ki jay se pehle khud ko jay karein.." etc

In one the military corruption has tied political hands.

In the other political incompetence has weakened the military

Vivek K wrote:Improve operational readiness to project asymmetric response capability! Stop pussy footing with Rafale and FGFA. History will castrate IAF brass for these colossal blunders!!
<snip>
GOI cannot order retaliatory strikes because the armed forces and their corrupt procurement mafia insist on foreign toys that always need spares. And the IA blows up ammunition dumps periodically directly affecting war fighting capabilities.

The armed forces and their penchant for foreign toys has made India weak. This weakness limits the hands of the political establishment.



Christopher Sidor wrote:Modi has no Guts was clear in the aftermath of Pathankot attack. That time we let go because I had a benefit of doubt. But after this attack it is different. Misgivings were building up ever since his partner in J&K ruined everything and BJP just stood by. BJP did not even have the decency of walking away, just because they have a higher purpose Congress-Mukt-Bharat. Not Terrorism-Mukuth-Bharat, Not Pakistan-Mukht-Kashmir, Not PLA-Mukht-Kashmir. Sir please see what is going around you. Rome is burning and the glorified Nemo is doing nothing. In 2.5 years he has done nothing to reverse the so called hallowing out of our Armed Forces.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shynee » 21 Sep 2016 08:13


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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 21 Sep 2016 08:14

It takes time to step up from a regional level leader to a national level leader in multiple variables.

But the ability to take risks is important, the world will not question India if it targets JeM HQ bahawalpur, HuM muzaffarabad, & aabpara as a warning. Tell me one single country that will condemnn India for doing this.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Vivek K » 21 Sep 2016 08:16

Sure Hakim! Glad you liked the solutions presented! But can the military today say that despite a large budget, and domestic manufacture it gives the country a war winning solution?

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 21 Sep 2016 08:17

It takes time to step up from a regional level leader to a national level leader in multiple variables.

But the ability to take risks is important, the world will not question India if it targets JeM HQ bahawalpur, HuM muzaffarabad, & aabpara as a warning. Tell me one single country that will condemnn India for doing this.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 21 Sep 2016 08:21

target the biggest DHA in lawhore, that is where the 'creme-de-la-creme' of military retired & serving try to live in peace and control their network of vasssal states from. Hit them @ home.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 21 Sep 2016 08:22

Think our BP bell curve can go down now. We'll forget this soon and it'll be business as usual from today or tomorrow until next one.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 21 Sep 2016 08:22

Arnab said "I do not trust America", the way Maroof and Chari spoke looks like things are moving forward. Parthasarthy provided the diplomatic angle of what is happening. And as a ex-service man himself, Parthasarthy, further ensured that the army will have a "badla". He did say this is not the time to attack as Pakistan would have taken steps to protect the borders. Arnab said everything but did not say "I want war". I have never seen this much of war drums in Indian channels.
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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 21 Sep 2016 08:25

SwamyG wrote:Arnab said "I do not trust America", the way Maroof and Chari spoke looks like things are moving forward. Parthasarthy provided the diplomatic angle of what is happening. Arnab said everything but did not say "I want war". I have never seen this much of war drums in Indian channels.


There was, IIRC after parliament attack.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 08:26

Vivek K wrote:Sure Hakim! Glad you liked the solutions presented! But can the military today say that despite a large budget, and domestic manufacture it gives the country a war winning solution?

Not arguing with you boss - there is a huge gap between emotional rhetoric and dispassionate talk so you put down your views, I put down mine and leave others to judge what they want.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 08:33

Karthik S wrote:Think our BP bell curve can go down now. We'll forget this soon and it'll be business as usual from today or tomorrow until next one.

Nothing personal but I can't help reading this post and thinking "My BP has gone up because of Pakistan. I can't control Pakistan so I will look at my own faults and the way my body reacts to stress and try and control my feelings and come to terms with my own faults and reduce my BP by meditation and Pranayama"

The solutions to an external problem lie within India. Better leaders. Less corrupt armed forces. Introspection is required

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 21 Sep 2016 08:38

Shiv and Rudradevji none of my posts were meant at you personally or against you as an individual. For the past 2 years all around me people have been saying that this PM is a Feku. I did not believe it when Vijay Mallya was allowed to escape to a luxurious exile in London with no attempt being made to get him back. I did not believe it when BJP's ruling partner in J&K led the state to ruin. I did not believe it when a very competent RBI governor was hounded out by our PM and our FM to benefit their industrialist cohorts. I did not believe it when Pathankot happened. But I was wrong. We all were wrong. This PM is turning out to be a bigger incompetent than even when Vajypee was. He is all hot air who is not concerned about our forces and our country. With this attack it has been proved that BJP is nothing more than Congress-B team. And just like in cricket this B team is incompetent as compared to the A team.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 21 Sep 2016 08:46

Shanmukh wrote:@Ramana-ji,
As for Baluchistan, Baluchis have claims on Afghan Baluchistan too. Afghans won't look too kindly on ripping out a part of their own country. Neither will Iran.

Yes, so they should get parts. Here is something the mediacrooks guy proposed. Variations of this have been proposed.

Image

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 21 Sep 2016 08:46

depleting Pakistani fighting forces now esp air assets mean they will not be able to re-equip as in past due to state of their country & economy. This is very important.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 08:48

Christopher Sidor wrote:Shiv and Rudradevji none of my posts were meant at you personally or against you as an individual. For the past 2 years all around me people have been saying that this PM is a Feku. I did not believe it when Vijay Mallya was allowed to escape to a luxurious exile in London with no attempt being made to get him back. I did not believe it when BJP's ruling partner in J&K led the state to ruin. I did not believe it when a very competent RBI governor was hounded out by our PM and our FM to benefit their industrialist cohorts. I did not believe it when Pathankot happened. But I was wrong. We all were wrong. This PM is turning out to be a bigger incompetent than even when Vajypee was. He is all hot air who is not concerned about our forces and our country. With this attack it has been proved that BJP is nothing more than Congress-B team. And just like in cricket this B team is incompetent as compared to the A team.

None of my posts are personally against you either, but I am saying that you are expressing political opinions about a politician. Nothing wrong in that but there is a military problem as well as a political one - and you reply to military quandaries with political answers. Modi does that. Geelani does that. Yechury does that. Digvijay Singh does that. But by doing that every time we talk about military issues on here you are merely doing what every politician, including Modi does. No matter how good a politician we have the military issue of Pakistan is not going to get solved by a political blame game

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby habal » 21 Sep 2016 08:52

Can pakistan make up for loss of 60 f16s with present state of their economy and attitude of usa towards them and no subsidised systems available in foreseeable future. They will have to re-arm from scratch with Chinese weapons.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 21 Sep 2016 09:13

I can only state on here what my thoughts tell me so I am not trying to change anyone's thought process or opinions, just laying open my own thoughts.

I repeat - let me assume that we have a great leader, a fantastic bold thinker who dares to do the unthinkable or the difficult. And this leader is put in place of Modi. This leader has at his command all the Indian armed forces with their strengths and areas of deficiency. 1.5 million men in arms and this leader has to send them to war against Pakistan at the end of which several thousand young men and women will be dead. Children will have lost their fathers and parents their sons.

If they win, our great leader will get credit. If they don't win then the leader will get the blame.

But my mind asks me a question" What the heck does "win" mean. What is 'victory" against Pakistan? If our leader is really great he has several options to deal with this question

1. He can take the really difficult option and define victory as "breaking up Pakistan" and demand that his armed forces deliver Pakistan in 4 pieces with whatever they have today starting today because the leader must appear that he is strong and is responding strongly to a Paki attack on Uri.

Here a few problems crop up. The armed forces may complain that they can't do it because of various reasons. or the armed forces may say "OK we will do it - but even after 2 months of fighting they do not manage to break up Pakistan and realize that it was a mistake. If that happens what can the leader do? He is after all a great leader. He cannot fail. Does he risk war or not?

2. Our great leader may then say "Ok we cannot break up Pakistan in 3-4 weeks so what else can I do?" He is told by his supporters "retaliate strongly". He asks the armed forces to hit Pakistan hard without actually entering and attacking Pakistan. he is hailed as a great hero and Pakistan goes whimpering to the UN and shows images of villagers in PoK being blown up by Indian artillery. At this stage he declares victory and stops. He even wins the next election. But after 6-7years again, Pakistan, with its army intact, people full of hate, starts hitting India again. But our leader is already a great man and is leaving office. It is the next leader who has to deal with Pakistan and show that he is as great as the previous one

3. Alternatively our great leader may turn spineless and chicken. he may say "First let me stop diplomatic contact. Let us call off trade. Let us highlight Pakistan atrocities. Let us try and build international consensus about a problem we face in a situation where no one gives a damn about us. But if no one gives a damn now, they will have even less sympathy for our view in case of war. So let us at least tell every nation about what we think of Pakistan and what we hope to achieve.

What any individual leader does depends, literally on the "stars". But the above three scenarios are what my mind tells me are the only options any leader can take. But as leader it is his prerogative to choose what he wants. I can only watch and wait for the next election to decide whether I want my great leader again or not.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 21 Sep 2016 09:43

Christopher Sidor wrote:
Rudradev wrote:Modi has no Guts was clear in the aftermath of Pathankot attack. That time we let go because I had a benefit of doubt. But after this attack it is different. Misgivings were building up ever since his partner in J&K ruined everything and BJP just stood by. BJP did not even have the decency of walking away, just because they have a higher purpose Congress-Mukt-Bharat. Not Terrorism-Mukuth-Bharat, Not Pakistan-Mukht-Kashmir, Not PLA-Mukht-Kashmir. Sir please see what is going around you. Rome is burning and the glorified Nemo is doing nothing. In 2.5 years he has done nothing to reverse the so called hallowing out of our Armed Forces.

Looks like you would be happy only if Modi slaps Nawaz. BJP is a political party, not a party of Sanyasins. It has to stay in power to get its points across, no body respects a party that does not have/share power. Congress stood for corruption and bad governance across all spheres of life. Hence BJP sloganeering makes sense as it reaches the people.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby sivab » 21 Sep 2016 09:50

https://twitter.com/writetake/status/778430316058845184

Anantha Krishnan M ✈ ‏@writetake 1h1 hour ago
After #UriAttacks | From a friend who has knowledge on military matters. Good to see that this year @adgpi wants an early #Diwali this year

Image

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby maitya » 21 Sep 2016 10:23

shiv wrote:I can only state on here what my thoughts tell me so I am not trying to change anyone's thought process or opinions, just laying open my own thoughts.

I repeat - let me assume that we have a great leader, a fantastic bold thinker who dares to do the unthinkable or the difficult. And this leader is put in place of Modi. This leader has at his command all the Indian armed forces with their strengths and areas of deficiency. 1.5 million men in arms and this leader has to send them to war against Pakistan at the end of which several thousand young men and women will be dead. Children will have lost their fathers and parents their sons.

If they win, our great leader will get credit. If they don't win then the leader will get the blame.

But my mind asks me a question" What the heck does "win" mean. What is 'victory" against Pakistan? If our leader is really great he has several options to deal with this question

1. He can take the really difficult option and define victory as "breaking up Pakistan" and demand that his armed forces deliver Pakistan in 4 pieces with whatever they have today starting today because the leader must appear that he is strong and is responding strongly to a Paki attack on Uri.

Here a few problems crop up. The armed forces may complain that they can't do it because of various reasons. or the armed forces may say "OK we will do it - but even after 2 months of fighting they do not manage to break up Pakistan and realize that it was a mistake. If that happens what can the leader do? He is after all a great leader. He cannot fail. Does he risk war or not?

2. Our great leader may then say "Ok we cannot break up Pakistan in 3-4 weeks so what else can I do?" He is told by his supporters "retaliate strongly". He asks the armed forces to hit Pakistan hard without actually entering and attacking Pakistan. he is hailed as a great hero and Pakistan goes whimpering to the UN and shows images of villagers in PoK being blown up by Indian artillery. At this stage he declares victory and stops. He even wins the next election. But after 6-7years again, Pakistan, with its army intact, people full of hate, starts hitting India again. But our leader is already a great man and is leaving office. It is the next leader who has to deal with Pakistan and show that he is as great as the previous one

3. Alternatively our great leader may turn spineless and chicken. he may say "First let me stop diplomatic contact. Let us call off trade. Let us highlight Pakistan atrocities. Let us try and build international consensus about a problem we face in a situation where no one gives a damn about us. But if no one gives a damn now, they will have even less sympathy for our view in case of war. So let us at least tell every nation about what we think of Pakistan and what we hope to achieve.

What any individual leader does depends, literally on the "stars". But the above three scenarios are what my mind tells me are the only options any leader can take. But as leader it is his prerogative to choose what he wants. I can only watch and wait for the next election to decide whether I want my great leader again or not.

Shivji,

This kind of over-analysis and, dare-say, obfuscation of real issue at hand has gone on for far too long - so it now needs to be called out.
What-ever the long-term goal is (and I doubt anybody would dis-agree with the "Balkanisation of the Pigsty" being that) it's not and never a substitute of short-term executable/actions.

Purely from short-term perspective, there's no need of a grand vision of breaking-up/balkanisation etc ... all that is needed is some well-aimed and widely-published jhapads.

These short-term actions, they are not intended towards discontinuance of the Pig army nor the Pigsty. The goal is to put the fear of retaliation amongst the head-Pigs and also bring-down the "larger-than-life invincible image" that they have built up in their sty.
It is purely a (re)setting-an-expectation of the Pigs of what the possible immediate/direct reactions/consequences would be of their future actions – which may or may not deter them.
And even if it doesn’t, a minimum pain-point will have been established. Currently that is limited to some dosa-lobbing, speeches in foreign country and some brave words domestically.

That’s what exactly happened in 71 and the piss was there for nearly two decades – the time normally taken institutional memories to start fading (and thus needing re-enforcing etc).

In fact, these may well be the starting-point-catalysts for the long-term visions etc (which then will be a bonus).

And that is well within the reach of any GoI (and by extn armed forces) including this one – and despite various bombastic claims (the political angle that you want to not touch upon) all this current GoI has to show is no better than what was there from the simply-abominable previous dispensation.

So, to me, this current one has turned out to be no better than the last one - same-to-same. I may still have some hope left that I’ll be proved wrong, but then again hope is no substitute of reality.


PS: There are some posts (and maybe some of your posts as well – not sure) alluding to the TINA factor in our current political setup etc – well, pls do note, pointing to TINA factor is not a substitute for a presence/absence of remediation action on the ground. In fact, it’s a good sign of desperate rear-guard /defending-the-indefensible actions being put in place.

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Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby CRamS » 21 Sep 2016 10:45

Guys, was it last night or the night before, Fair Didi was on UndY, and she speculated and I agree is that without insider info, this attack could not have taken place. Any thoughts from the gurus on that? Last night, Karan Thappad, in his usual aggressive mode when it comes to India was questioning the lapses that led to Uri (that he would not even use a tiny fraction of that kind of vigor to questions his TSP lovers is another matter), and there too, some of the panelists said an insider mole did India in.

Meanwhile, while I agree there should be no knee jerk reaction, the usual suspects are painting a dire scenario if ModiJi even takes the minutest of aggressive move like canceling SAARC visit. There are huge number of Pakis in Indian mufti on DDM. One despicable b!tch was praising TSP (which country will keep so many Afghan refugees was her refrain) even as India is licking its TSP-inflicted wounds post Uri. This crap about there being a difference between civviess and TSPA/ISI needs be busted and busted now. It makes me puke every-time I hear a dork on DDM cite that rubbish. Its a convenient excuse to masquerade any inaction on the part of India. I mean what TSP/ISI are doing is a manifestation of TSP nationalism. Even the most libtrad TSP punks cannot get over the Kashmir neurosis.

Anyway, my bottom line is this: As much as I am disgusted at our inability to inflict punishment on TSP, I think ModiJi is on the right track. Doing his best to isolate TSP (despite Uncle' machinations), and doing what he can to hurt TSP militarily. At least a lot better than dosa diplomacy, and I think this is India's best bet at the moment. Let TSP sweat with this low intensity aggressive posture given that an all our war and ensuing stalemate is what they are itching for. And of course, at the opportune moment like the shooting down of TSP's navy carrier, Atlantique a few years ago, strike a big blow.


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