In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

All threads that are locked or marked for deletion will be moved to this forum. The topics will be cleared from this archive on the 1st and 16th of each month.

In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack, I believe GOI will take the following action:

1) Lot of hot air and bleating but no visible action in the foreseeable future.
81
43%
2) Heavy shelling of PA positions across LoC, but no more
28
15%
3) Significant covert strikes on select targets deep inside Pakistan.
57
30%
4) Significant covert + conventional (IBG, IN, IAF) strikes deep inside Pakistan
19
10%
5) Aar-paar ki ladai
2
1%
 
Total votes: 187

panduranghari
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3758
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby panduranghari » 20 Sep 2016 19:24

shiv wrote:
The point I am getting at is that politics is all about "log kya kahenge". The winner in politics is always the person who thinks about all his actions under two headings
1. What will people say if my plans succeed
2. What will people say if my plans fail

.


After reading Shiv saars post and also trying to think through, I think he is correct. Modi is between rock and hard place.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Essence_of_Decision

When he first wrote the book, Allison contended that political science and the study of international relations were saturated with rational expectations theories inherited from the field of economics. Under such a view, the actions of states are analyzed by assuming that nations consider all options and act rationally to maximize their utility.

Allison attributes such viewpoints to the dominance of economists such as Milton Friedman, statesmen such as Robert McNamara and Henry Kissinger, disciplines such as game theory, and organizations such as the RAND Corporation. However, as he puts it:

It must be noted, however, that an imaginative analyst can construct an account of value-maximizing choice for any action or set of actions performed by a government.

Or, to put it bluntly, this approach (which Allison terms the "Rational Actor Model") violates the law of falsifiability. Also, Allison notes that "rational" analysts must ignore a lot of facts in order to make their analysis fit their models.

In response, Allison constructed three different ways (or "lenses") through which analysts can examine events: the "Rational Actor" model, the "Organizational Behavior" model, and the "Governmental Politics" model.

To illustrate the models, Allison poses the following three questions in each section:

Why did the Soviet Union decide to place offensive missiles in Cuba?
Why did the United States respond to the missile deployment with a blockade?
Why did the Soviet Union withdraw the missiles?


Based on this 'essence of decision', the government will make a decision not on what a rational person would think. The government will make a decision based on where they sat (bureaucracy) and where they stood (internal politics). A rational person will want a tit for a tat.

That will be a loss leader. IMO we have to take army out of the equation in the dealing with Pakistan. Bureaucratically, Sushma Swaraj might be doing her job. Its how the internal politics is played is what Modi can do. Of course, this is just my opinion. But I agree with Siv saar.

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1435
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Sep 2016 19:49

Modi will not respond. There will not be any strike on Pakistan. Defending Modi by blaming the bureaucracy or by spreading the canard that IA has advised against the strike is pathetic.

Wake up and realize, all of our PM's since 1971 have been weaklings, including Rajiv Gandhi, VP Singh, PV Narsihma Rao, Vajypee, Manmohan and also Modi.

Shanmukh has a point when he said this.
We don't care if you kill hundreds or even thousands of bakras. Our elites and bizmen are safe and our profits intact. We don't care about the rest. In exchange for you not killing anyone important (how many important people have been killed in Pakistani terrorism from 1990?), we will not retaliate.

After all how many of our so called family members of our netas or Lahu purush or Gandhi Dynasty members have enlisted in the armed services and have paid the ultimate sacrifice, NONE. It is only the non-elites who serve in battle field and are murdered by terrorists from across the border.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 19:53

There are two types of leadership (my definitions) - populist and power centric. A populist seeks to remain popular. The power-centric leader seeks to stay in power. Populism is tempting and the ultimate example are Arab gulf nation "leaders" who simply threw money at their population despite themselves being assholes. In a democratic set up populism works with majorities but may leave out minorities. In India minorities form a large enough majority to tilt the balance.

The power centric leader seeks to retain power. All dictators are power centric. Democratic laws make it difficult for dictators, and a person who must retain power must either sink to populism or reject populism and decide what will get him out of power and avoid mistakes that will throw him out. Despite sickular accusations Modi has regularly rejected Hindutva populism to thwart the "bigger threat" of unifying the opposition against him. Nowadays I see a lot of self proclaimed Hindutva-vadis cursing Modi and saying that he will lose if he does not support them They may be right - but what they get after Modi is a different issue. Congress, leftists, islamists. slaves of the west and the west itself are still very powerful. If they join up and Hindutva leaves Modi - Modi will be out. That is for the country to decide. But for Modis' part he sees his power and reputation under threat from sickular libtards, the Lootyens elite and the PakPasand media. The only way he can hold on is to deliver on economy and development and not get into a war if war is avoidable. Poor economy, failed development, jingoistic moves against Pakistan that hurt the economy will ensure Modis downfall and give us our darling Rahul. Modi does not have to set his ambition on taking Pakistan down - and it would be risky for him and the country if that were his sole ambition.

JMT

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5151
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 20 Sep 2016 19:56

This is where a sense of betrayal comes, which increases frustration many folds. This man promised or claimed to be different. People trusted him, some people still trust him. He showed us hope but turns out to be just another politician.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 20:04

I would like to post something that I have done from time to time before - but it is relevant here:

The Pakistan army no longer sees itself as capable of attacking India. But they are confident of defending Pakistan if India attacks. I do not want to get into great detail except to point out that traditionally an attacking force must have a 3:1 numerical superiority over a defending force. It is debatable whether the Paki army no longer has the numbers because they are tied up in the west. But I digress.

After 1971 - Pakistan has stopped sending its regular soldiers in uniform against India. They did send them in civilian clothing in 1999. The big difference is that regular armies and jihadi/militias normally differ in firepower. The Paki army owns tanks, artillery and helicopters that they monopolize, but they do provide jihadis with good training as competent but suicidal commandos. The Pakis army is not using its most formidable hardware against India - they are no longer sending those at us. Those forces are now reserved to defend Pakistan.

Jihadis against the Indian army will cause losses to us but the Pakistani army will not join war until we attack. If we attack they will put up a robust defence because it is easier to defend with inferior numbers (That worked for us in 1965 and 1971 in the west)

The question is "How to draw the Paki army out into a conflict where they can start losing strength". Right now that possibility is only in the West at the Afghan border. Giving the Afghans weapons is necessary.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 20:08

Karthik S wrote:This is where a sense of betrayal comes, which increases frustration many folds. This man promised or claimed to be different. People trusted him, some people still trust him. He showed us hope but turns out to be just another politician.

Your frustration is justifiable as an opinion but Modi is no superman. He is the best we have that's all. Before the 2014 elections I had suggested on BRF the unpopular idea that Advani should be made PM candidate. My logic was that Modi was being given an aura that no human can deliver - and that one term might kill him given the expectations of 1.2 billion. It is easier to watch a plodder fail than an overhyped winner be pulled down by impossible expectations of his voters

CRamS
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6473
Joined: 07 Oct 2006 20:54
Contact:

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby CRamS » 20 Sep 2016 20:10

One can't fault TSPA, ISI, and their pigLeT bosses for laughing their arse off at this spectacle after they took out scores of our guys in a brazen terror attack. The blame game has started in India by eunuch politicians


19:45 Weak PDP-BJP alliance in J&K provided space for terrorism: Rahul: Congress vice president Rahul Gandhi on Tuesday said that the 'short-sighted alliance' of the Bharatiya Janata Party and People's Democratic Party in Jammu and Kashmir 'opened space for terrorism', which resulted in the Uri attack on Sunday.

"PM Modi ji's short sighted alliance with the PDP opened space for terrorism in Kashmir, our soldiers have died and I condemn that. I condemn what Pak has done. However the space for that has been created by politics that the NDA (National Democratic Alliance) has carried out in Kashmir," Rahul, who is on campaign trail in Uttar Pradesh, said.

"The NDA has no strategy in Kashmir, national security can't be handled like public meets. This is a serious matter. The Congress is ready to help in whatever way possible as far as our soldiers and the government of India is concerned," he said.

He said the Congress wants a 'long-term, concrete strategy, not this event-based activity', to tackle terrorism in Kashmir 'because this is extremely dangerous for the country'.


shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 20:16

All Indians are not disappointed with Modi or unhappy with the outcome

Here is a reaction from Twitter, India is not an easy country to govern and we probably have 2.5 years of Modi left. After that Allah ho Akbar
Image

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby RoyG » 20 Sep 2016 20:18

Shiv,

You paint the most likely scenario. Arming the Afghans and their Pashtun proxies is the only way to take on the Punjab. This is why we are investing in Chabahar. This will also give the US indirect access to Afghanistan so this will limit how hard they can come down on us. Iran will never give the US direct access.

IMO, you will see some major weapons shipments to Afghanistan along w/ more special forces/intelligence folks. We will be doing what Iran is doing in Syria. As trade grows we will need to protect our investments.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 20:18

And buddhu and madam's solution is to give the valley and siachen to Pakistan.
Piss will reign eternal then

This seema singh is probably a paki mard-e-momeen. Born in 1971 too

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1435
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Sep 2016 20:18

shiv wrote: But for Modis' part he sees his power and reputation under threat from sickular libtards, the Lootyens elite and the PakPasand media. The only way he can hold on is to deliver on economy and development and not get into a war if war is avoidable. Poor economy, failed development, jingoistic moves against Pakistan that hurt the economy will ensure Modis downfall and give us our darling Rahul. Modi does not have to set his ambition on taking Pakistan down - and it would be risky for him and the country if that were his sole ambition.


Fair enough, we put economy at the fore front and every thing else at the back burner. If that is the case let Modi give us economic progress. Modi has about 2-3 more years left before the next general elections. If and when Indians vote for a sickular government in the next general election, I wonder how many of these so called torch bearers will be silent and not scream on top of their lungs about how weak or silent a particular Prime minister had been in face of another attack. There is a reason why the term "Feku" gets thrown around.

We Indians have to realize our current crop of leaders, take it from any party, be it BJP or Congress or any other party that you may wish to take, are spineless. I doubt that they will retaliate even if an atomic bomb is dropped in Delhi or for matter of fact on any city in India. If they escape the bombings they will only make noises like empty vessels.

Sicanta
BRFite
Posts: 1121
Joined: 15 Aug 2016 11:16

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Sicanta » 20 Sep 2016 20:23

Whatever happens, no one sane is going to vote congress or its rakhails back into power. We are just getting to learn a lesson - If even modiji is not able to act with a free hand against Pak then what it will really take to act against them and their backers. Atleast I know of a few in my group who have finally accepted the fact that pak needs a permanent solution sooner than latter.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 20:23

Shiv, I think you are on to something.

If, even after all these years, you ask people who the greatest PM of India was, they will (mostly) say IG. And what was it about IG that made her great? They will say 1971. That one war makes her legacy what it is. People forget the grinding down of the economy for decades under the wheels of her dysfunctional socialism, the hopelessness engendered by bank nationalization and license-raj on steroids, the garibi hatao politicking that simply compounded garibi 1000 fold, the Emergency, Sanjay Gandhi goonda raj, Khalistan, LTTE... every other damn thing she did was horrible for India. But 1971 makes her a legend and causes all else to be forgiven... even if the military gains weren't fully capitalized on in the Simla agreement.

Yet, what if she had failed on 1971? What if India had somehow been defeated, East Pakistan had remained Pakistani territory, IA had suffered humiliating losses to Chinese and/or US intervention? Or even if the whole thing had foundered in the morass of stalemate and become another J&K 1948 situation? IG would have been remembered as just another long-running and more dictatorial Deve Gowda. There would likely have been no Dynasty beyond her.

The point I'm making is that any action across the border is a HUUUUUGE gamble. It can make you a legend, or it can doom you to perennial inconsequence or worse. When SSridhar asks why shrewd and ruthless Indian politicians who will go to any extent to win within Indian politics act very skittish and timid with respect to international strategic issues, this is the reason. They are comfortable playing games in a field that they know, by rules that they've internalized. They are far more cautious about sticking their noses into unfamiliar (figurative and literal) territory where they have far less control over the outcome of every action.

The lesson is not lost on Narendra Modi. As the first person since 1984 to win an absolute majority in the Lok Sabha, he is the first figure in Indian politics to have a shot at competing with the scale of legacy that IG left behind, to have an opportunity to influence the future of India as profoundly as IG did. Yes, I know, Rajiv got a huge majority too but within two years it was clear he was incapable of doing anything but squandering his mandate... he was a flash in the pan. NM is the first real leader since IG to have the opportunity to craft the destiny of India, to become the chhatrapati, to be elected to power again and again and again with the sort of automatic and almost monarchic reverence the Indian voting public invariably develops for a towering hriday samrat.

He is not going to blow it. I have no doubt whatsoever... NONE... that Modi wants his legacy to outshine even IG's. And he knows that a very important component of that will be managing the destruction of Pakistan. However, he also realizes very well that IG herself didn't rush into the Bangladesh war until she was as confident as possible of achieving the outcome she wanted. He is not going to be any less prepared before he takes action. If we imagine that pressure from jingos is going to move the needle one way or the other, we're being completely delusional... this is a guy who overcame a decade plus of far more intense attacks from a conglomerate of UPA-GOI, foreign governments, international Christian organizations, Indian and foreign media over 2002 to win three local elections and one prime ministerial election. Lots of luck trying to shame him into responding for Uri.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 20:25

Christopher Sidor wrote:Fair enough, we put economy at the fore front and every thing else at the back burner. If that is the case let Modi give us economic progress. Modi has about 2-3 more years left before the next general elections. If and when Indians vote for a sickular government in the next general election, I wonder how many of these so called torch bearers will be silent and not scream on top of their lungs about how weak or silent a particular Prime minister had been in face of another attack. There is a reason why the term "Feku" gets thrown around.

We Indians have to realize our current crop of leaders, take it from any party, be it BJP or Congress or any other party that you may wish to take, are spineless. I doubt that they will retaliate even if an atomic bomb is dropped in Delhi or for matter of fact on any city in India. If they escape the bombings they will only make noises like empty vessels.

As I see it a good proper war is needed to punish Pakistan, not raids.

If we declare war on Pakistan there could be two possible outcomes
1. Outright victory and break up of Pakistan (desirable)
2. Failure to break Pakistan - the state survives and we are poorer, never mind how much worse off Pakis might be

What would happen at the next election if the outcome is No 1?
What would happen at the next election if the outcome is No 2?

Does the nation want outcome 1 or outcome 2?
Does Modi want outcome 1 or outcome 2?

Who can guarantee the outcome? Whom should we ask: - the armed forces. What do they say?

SSharma
BRFite
Posts: 363
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 15:26

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SSharma » 20 Sep 2016 20:27

shiv saar, you may be 100% right, in fact considering the breadth and depth of your knowledge, you most likely are.

but it was modi who promised that he will bring 2 (or was it 10?) paki heads for each of ours they cut.
there were also various sounds coming out regarding black money and ram mandir, conversions and what not.

the economy is on the upswing right now, but that can also be attributed to a placebo effect on the investors that modi is doing something.

i can let go of swach bharat as it is the public's job more than his. but what about make in india? only the chinese are coming here to assemble cheap phones and cut on their transport costs. no real making is happening here.

you are right in that he has/had a superhuman aura, but he wanted that aura, no one forced it onto him.

bjp won with absolute majority in LS, sure they are still hampered in RS but that is no excuse anymore, i had hoped MAD were smarter than this, if they cant game the system after 2 years being in power then really there is no hope.

modi is still the best choice for pm even in 2019, but with how things stand right now, i highly doubt his "core supporters" will come out to vote in the first place.

its time he became populist in your words and did something, anything, visibly.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 20:31

In answer to your question, Shiv, do I want
1) Modi for 10 years
2) War with Pakistan now

I want 1. Why? Because I think in 10 years there is a 5% chance that Modi will achieve the complete and final destruction of Pakistan. I think there is a 0% chance of that with any other potential leader of India currently on the political landscape. I think there is actually a positive chance that we will lose things to Pakistan with MANY other potential leaders of India currently on the political landscape... Congress or AAP would likely barter away control over J&K, territory in Siachen or Sir Creek, and more.

Meanwhile, there may have been a 10% or better chance that Arvind Kejriwal (say) as PM would have reacted to the Uri attack with some kind of military response... IF the polls had shown he could benefit by "appearing to do something". Even Mulayam Singh Yadav used to talk awful tough on Pakistan when he was raksha mantri of the country. All of these guys are capable of taking some token, tactical action for the sake of short-term political gain, even attacking Pakistan with no strategic vision in place to achieve lasting goals or manage the aftermath. Maybe even Rahul Gandhi, if he were PM today, would have "done something" that might have warmed the Jingo heart for about two weeks.

I would rather have the guy who has a 5% chance of achieving the complete and final destruction of Pakistan without caring what people think of his response to any one provocation.

If somebody can point to a credible, electable, leader who genuinely has India's long-term interest at heart, AND has a >5% chance of achieving this... please point him/her out to me. If I am convinced of their potential I will switch my support to them from Modi immediately.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 20:33

Shiv ji
I will like to add to your post above.

The pak fauj thinks they can defend pakistan. They prepare for an aar paar ki ladai, with Indian battle groups attacking pakistani punjab or POK. They have left Sindh virtually defenceless, with very few cantts and defense formations there. Balochistan is even less defended.

They feel that the threat of N weapons, jihadis as cannon fodder, armed civilians in the cities, lot of anti hindu indoctrination, using religion etc will hold the fort, while they wait for 3.5 (+ 1 from within India) will save the day for them.

Experience shows that they put up a fight for only a certain time period, then give up suddenly.
Socially they are pretty divided with wide differences in economics, pay grade between their cannon fodder and whiskey swilling afsar and elite class. Cannon fodder folks start wondering pretty quickly why they should die for these RAPE class people.

Somehow, I don't think India will give them an all out frontal war.
Doval is a spymaster, specializes in covert ops. He says he would rather have missiles than tanks - no all out war on his watch.
But covert ops and sniping from far away are 400% on.

I feel that pakistan is really going to be squeezed until there is civil war there.
This is my belief, and people are free to disagree, that Pakistan is not worth spilling our soldiers blood on. That abomination HAS to be destroyed, I support covert means followed by military action in the end.
Going in now, all guns blazing will mean a huge loss of life on pakistani side, some loss of life on our side, and then what? Hold territory? Withdraw? POK we can hold and not let go, It is Indian territory legally.
But what of pakjab, where the real problem lies?

These guys have to denuked, cut down in size with the provinces splitting away. Until then no all out war.

But now, a solid thappad to banta hai, including liberating part of POK - 400% agree.

SSharma
BRFite
Posts: 363
Joined: 16 Aug 2016 15:26

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SSharma » 20 Sep 2016 20:35

imagine how much severe the next attack(s) would be now that pak has learned (twice) that modi wont do anything either.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 20:41

Rudradev wrote:Meanwhile, there may have been a 10% or better chance that Arvind Kejriwal (say) as PM would have reacted to the Uri attack with some kind of military response... IF the polls had shown he could benefit by "appearing to do something". Even Mulayam Singh Yadav used to talk awful tough on Pakistan when he was raksha mantri of the country. All of these guys are capable of taking some token, tactical action for the sake of short-term political gain, even attacking Pakistan with no strategic vision in place to achieve lasting goals or manage the aftermath. Maybe even Rahul Gandhi, if he were PM today, would have "done something" that might have warmed the Jingo heart for about two weeks.

My fear is that, once these guys would have done that, to compensate, they will give away land for piss.
These people, none of them have principals.

And they would have damaged the system internally from day 1 to their last day in power. They are inefficient people, who are good at making speeches, very poor in successfully running nation states.

One feels so much different with Modi in power, and he's been there for 2 yrs only.

Yes, 10 yrs down the line, one may hear about the sorry deals he did with the US or with other people, but then history will judge him as it will judge everyone else.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 20:43

SSharma wrote:imagine how much severe the next attack(s) would be now that pak has learned (twice) that modi wont do anything either.

The more you squeeze Pakistan, the more they will attack.
The more economically you prosper, the more jealous they will be and they'll do things.

India can't let this go, a solid thappad has to be administered now. Pak fauj has to be shamed.

shiv
BRF Oldie
Posts: 34982
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30
Location: Pindliyon ka Gooda

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby shiv » 20 Sep 2016 20:44

SSharma wrote:imagine how much severe the next attack(s) would be now that pak has learned (twice) that modi wont do anything either.

I don't want to say that this attack was not severe enough and that it will get worse. It could definitely be worse and one can blame Modi for it - after all we blamed MMS and waitress and that coterie for allowing mumbai to occur.

But if we look at ourselves as citizens and our country and its people and soldiers as eternal and politicians as temporary you find that attacking India with 4, 8, 10, or 20 jihadis can only go so far. To hit India one has to attack with 100,000 men with tanks and aircraft. That would be serious - imagine losing a chunk of Rajasthan and a clear road to Delhi as nearly occurred in 1971?

But to stop attacks from those 4,8.10 or 20 jihadis we have to take out the Pakisatni army, which is not coming out. The only option is to attack Pakistan

Question: Should we plan to attack and break Pakistan when they least expect it but we are ready. Or should we try and do that simply after they conduct a jihadi raid - when all their defences are ready and waiting for a retaliation? Everyone is allowed to answer this question. The only outcome I want is total victory and a break up of Pakistan

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 20:48

Christopher Sidor wrote:We Indians have to realize our current crop of leaders, take it from any party, be it BJP or Congress or any other party that you may wish to take, are spineless. I doubt that they will retaliate even if an atomic bomb is dropped in Delhi or for matter of fact on any city in India. If they escape the bombings they will only make noises like empty vessels.

I am 400% sure that Kejriwal or Congress will react.
Since these guys can't run the country with any reasonable degree of efficiency, they will not disappoint an emotional public.

Then these guys will go behind everyone's back and stab the country in the back by cutting a deal with the enemy, just as they were doing for 10 years.

Come to think of it, these two, will actually stage manage retaliation in cahoots with the enemy to placate the public.

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1435
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Sep 2016 20:50

shiv wrote:
Christopher Sidor wrote:Fair enough, we put economy at the fore front and every thing else at the back burner. If that is the case let Modi give us economic progress. Modi has about 2-3 more years left before the next general elections. If and when Indians vote for a sickular government in the next general election, I wonder how many of these so called torch bearers will be silent and not scream on top of their lungs about how weak or silent a particular Prime minister had been in face of another attack. There is a reason why the term "Feku" gets thrown around.

We Indians have to realize our current crop of leaders, take it from any party, be it BJP or Congress or any other party that you may wish to take, are spineless. I doubt that they will retaliate even if an atomic bomb is dropped in Delhi or for matter of fact on any city in India. If they escape the bombings they will only make noises like empty vessels.

As I see it a good proper war is needed to punish Pakistan, not raids.

If we declare war on Pakistan there could be two possible outcomes
1. Outright victory and break up of Pakistan (desirable)
2. Failure to break Pakistan - the state survives and we are poorer, never mind how much worse off Pakis might be

What would happen at the next election if the outcome is No 1?
What would happen at the next election if the outcome is No 2?

Does the nation want outcome 1 or outcome 2?
Does Modi want outcome 1 or outcome 2?

Who can guarantee the outcome? Whom should we ask: - the armed forces. What do they say?


Who guaranteed the outcome in 1971 breakup of Pakistan into two pieces? No body sir. Who guaranteed PLA victory over IA in 1962? No Body sir. It is only leaders with guts and foresight who have this ability to guarantee the outcome. Modi or any of his contemporaries has neither. Rahul is wrapped up in his imaginary world. Applying some North Atlantic ethos to Asia and especially India.

We do not need a war with Pakistan to punish it. What we need is to stop running to Uncle everytime a strike happens and grow a pair. Payback Pakistan in the same coin as it has been given us. Spread the same amount of hate in Baluchistan and NWFP against Pakistan as its cronies have been spreading against us in Kashmir. Convert Pakistan into another Grozny or better still Syria. Arm Baluchi's and pay them 2 Lakh rupees for every Pakistani soldier killed and 5 lakh for every major/colonel killed and 10 lakh for every general killed. Ditto for the Pathans. And offcourse carry out surgical strikes against Pakistani army in POK and Northern Areas. But then for that we need leaders who pay attention to our forces. But then what has Modi and BJP done for our armed forces in the past 2 odd years in augmenting their capacity to carry out such an operations? NONE.

vinod
BRFite
Posts: 666
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby vinod » 20 Sep 2016 20:56

Sanctions regime

Can we request Afghanistan to join us in imposing sanctions on Pakistan.
We impose sanctions from sea. (How this is implemented out, I'm not sure, but if we can do it in name of piracy etc. )
No flights allowed over indian ocean, India or Afghanistan.
That leaves flights only over Baluchs and POK
We supply anti-aircraft missiles to Baluchs and POK rebels, effectively no flights over there too.
They will become more dependant to china through POK.
Sanctions should be done in winter.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 20:57

Does anyone seriously think that its development and use of covert capabilities within Pakistan is something the GOI is going to broadcast?

Jingos need to recognize that satisfying jingo hearts is the least of the GOI's priorities where Pakistan is concerned. If the time comes when something big and visible can be done that makes a lot of jingos happy, that is a bonus. Period.

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby RoyG » 20 Sep 2016 21:00

vinod wrote:Sanctions regime

Can we request Afghanistan to join us in imposing sanctions on Pakistan.
We impose sanctions from sea. (How this is implemented out, I'm not sure, but if we can do it in name of piracy etc. )
No flights allowed over indian ocean, India or Afghanistan.
That leaves flights only over Baluchs and POK
We supply anti-aircraft missiles to Baluchs and POK rebels, effectively no flights over there too.
They will become more dependant to china through POK.
Sanctions should be done in winter.


What sort of sanctions is Afghanistan going to impose on Pakistan? Heroin denial? :lol:

Shanmukh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2911
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Shanmukh » 20 Sep 2016 21:04

Rudradev-ji,
Can we begin by declaring Pakistan a terrorist state first? Why cry if US or China or Afghanistan is not considering Pakistan a terrorist state & sanctioning them? The beginning to any propaganda against Pakistan and building world opinion against them is showing that WE believe in what we say - that Pakistan is indeed a terrorist state. When we ourselves award MFN to Pakistan, do pappi-jhappi with Pakistan leaders, & so forth, you can hardly expect anyone else to take you seriously when you say Pakistan is a terrorist state. So can we lay out the full set of sanctions we can have on them?
Last edited by Shanmukh on 20 Sep 2016 21:05, edited 1 time in total.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 21:04

Christopher ji
Who finally started the howitzer induction? Who finally sorted out LCA and turned IAF around - a lot of work was needed to sit IAF and DRDO and sort out their misgivings.
For the veterans, who finally gave OROP - hobbled as some people call it. GoIs have promised OROP for 70 years, who actually did it?

Who would one have as the def min, Anthony or Parrikar? All past GoIs did a few things, but I see the whole system being slowly turned around and being made more answerable and efficient.

While not perfect, I have great faith in the current bunch in power. They might remain in power for 10 years, this is the only window India has to build a mil infrastructure. If someone else comes to power, we will be back to the days of def ministers who are lordships, we will be back to the days of returning a portion of the defence budget, to corruption in procurement, and using defense as a CBM with adversaries.

Karthik S
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5151
Joined: 18 Sep 2009 12:12

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Karthik S » 20 Sep 2016 21:12

So bottom line is NM is not he person we thought him to be: Chatrapathi, Ashvamedha etc. He is just a least worst option that we've got who takes decisions that have least or no risk and that will help increase his popularity. But, if he is not taking any action against enemy because he is worried about his reputation with certain group(s) and if soldiers are paying for it through their lives, then he is no better than any other PM.

JE Menon
Forum Moderator
Posts: 7029
Joined: 01 Jan 1970 05:30

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby JE Menon » 20 Sep 2016 21:19

Excellent series of posts by Rudradev, Shiv and Gagan - thanks guys, far far better reading than the tripe put out by the MSM.

There will be payback. There always is. This time it will be painful, and close to home.

SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16102
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 20 Sep 2016 21:22

durvasa wrote:It's humiliating to see Pakistani guffawing at Indian discomfort. My friend's article

NEW DELHI: Pakistan is enjoying India's pain after Uri attack and is making fun of us. Pakistanis are using every platform - TV, Newspapers, UN, Twitter and Facebook, to tell us this.


http://mahapunjab.com/pakistan-mocking- ... di-tested/

Anyone in the establishment of Pakistan Army and Intelligence would not inwardly laugh, because they are gaming the situation and know what is being done and by whom for what reason. All the laughs are for cosmetic purposes.

When a dog barks or snake hisses, they could be reacting to their internal fears and survival mechanisms. It does make them look fearful.

SwamyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 16102
Joined: 11 Apr 2007 09:22

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby SwamyG » 20 Sep 2016 21:23

Shiv, the answer to your mini poll. I want Modi for another 10 years.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 21:24

Shanmukh-ji, what is the total volume of India-Pakistan trade? Even $3 Billion a year?

If we declare total trade sanctions to cut this off entirely, would it hurt the Pakistan Army in any significant way? I'm not against it, but let's not kid ourselves that it would be much more than symbolic in value.

"MFN" doesn't mean a damn thing as a bilateral measure when it comes to a country that has nothing to trade. Sure we could cancel it, but again, symbolic in value.

The fact is just about anything we do bilaterally w.r.t. Pakistan on the economic front is mostly symbolic. It may have certain real repercussions for the Pakis, but not enough to hurt the TSPA/ISI significantly. On the other hand, it promotes the re-hyphenation narrative of "India/Pakistan tit-for-tat". This is a net advantage for Pakistan, not us.

It is a much better move to position ourselves as the regional grand master that builds coalitions of different nations which together isolate Pakistan. There is no question of hyphenation. It shows at once that we dominate the region, and that Pakistan is a problem for the whole region. In effect it gives greater international legitimacy to whatever we do in future to solve that problem.

And that is exactly what we are doing. The current GOI has successfully recruited Bangladesh and Afghanistan to a SAARC boycott in protest against Pakistani sponsorship of terrorism. Meanwhile we have continued to build up and expand BIMSTEC as a separate regional grouping sans Pakistan, and to present ourselves to the wider world as the flagship of BIMSTEC.

This helps bolster the perception that we are acting from a position that is higher than Pakistan's by a whole order of magnitude... a facilitator of the local comity of nations... and positions Pakistan, conversely, as the recalcitrant rogue. It forces the rest of the world to acknowledge a narrative whereby we are the driver of the economies of many nations in this part of the world, the guarantor of security in many nations in this part of the world... and, importantly, the local sheriff, with authority to shut down criminal nations in this part of the world.

Diplomatically, I see far more value in this than in measures that enable the old narrative, faithfully repeated by the Pak-verminized newsdesks of CNN and BBC: "India called Pakistan a state sponsor of terrorism. Pakistan then called India a state sponsor of terrorism. India called Pakistan a violator of human rights. Pakistan then called India a violator of human rights..."

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1435
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Sep 2016 21:29

Rudradev wrote:Does anyone seriously think that its development and use of covert capabilities within Pakistan is something the GOI is going to broadcast?

Jingos need to recognize that satisfying jingo hearts is the least of the GOI's priorities where Pakistan is concerned. If the time comes when something big and visible can be done that makes a lot of jingos happy, that is a bonus. Period.


Forget about satisfying jingo hearts sir. This current ruling dispensation is only about satisfying industrialist hearts and to the hell with our soldiers dying in Kashmir. I totally agree with what the father of a brave heart who recently said, "None of my other children is going to join IA if Modi does not strike." That is a very valid view. Why should the poor pay for their lives and the elite live in manicured gardens in Delhi and only make noises?
Think about it, this party, yes BJP, is ready to continue its coalition in J&K with another party, yes PDP, despite what PDP's government has done in undoing all the hard work of our security forces in the past 4 years. I used to think that UPA-II was the hall mark of incompetence, this BJP+PDP ruling government has beaten UPA-II by light years and yet BJP continues with this this coalition in J&K.

And about covert capabilities, we were pretty vocal when IA went into Burma recently. Will Modi have the guts to do what Indira did in 1971, doubtfull. Does he have half the heart of Lal Bhadur Shastri to order what LBS had ordered in 1965 to IA to cross the IB in face of provocation in Kashmir, ABSOLUTELY NONE.

Christopher Sidor
BRFite
Posts: 1435
Joined: 13 Jul 2010 11:02

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Christopher Sidor » 20 Sep 2016 21:38

Gagan wrote:Christopher ji
Who finally started the howitzer induction? Who finally sorted out LCA and turned IAF around - a lot of work was needed to sit IAF and DRDO and sort out their misgivings.

And where is the Howitzer? Is the ready to be deployed 2 years after the so called decisive government took over?

Gagan wrote:For the veterans, who finally gave OROP - hobbled as some people call it. GoIs have promised OROP for 70 years, who actually did it?

Let us not forget that only after a lot of pressure was bought to bear on the ruling dispensation was this given. The first impulse was to reject it.

Gagan wrote:Who would one have as the def min, Anthony or Parrikar? All past GoIs did a few things, but I see the whole system being slowly turned around and being made more answerable and efficient.

Neither. Parrikar is turning out to be as a big a failure as Anthony had been. Give him another 2-3 years and let us see his score card done. But his actions with respect to MMRCA and the mountain Strike corps is revealing. Is it any wonder that a depleted IAF cannot carry out surgical strikes? What has Parrikar done to shore up IAF's strength? None. Did he repose faith in Indian scientist and give them the tools to build the Kaveri engine to the required specs, NO. In fact he agreed with UPA-II in putting the engine program on ice.

Gagan wrote:While not perfect, I have great faith in the current bunch in power. They might remain in power for 10 years, this is the only window India has to build a mil infrastructure. If someone else comes to power, we will be back to the days of def ministers who are lordships, we will be back to the days of returning a portion of the defence budget, to corruption in procurement, and using defense as a CBM with adversaries.

I am afraid that we have elected people into power who are no better than the previous ruling dispensation. If UPA-II was a nightmare, NM's rule is not turning out to be any better. But well we still have another 2.5 years to go.

Shanmukh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2911
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Shanmukh » 20 Sep 2016 21:42

Rudradev-ji,
It is not about the money part of it. Some of it may cause some takleef to Pakistani businessmen, but that is immaterial. The Pakistani army wouldn't care even if we shot those businessmen.

The important point is - if we are building opinion around the world that Pakistan is a terrorist state, WE need to show that we believe in it. Without that, I am pointing out that no one will take us seriously. Indira, iIRC, started up the Mukti-Bahini, established refugee camps for those fleeing, brought out a bunch of measures against Pakistan, & so forth. The refugee camps were visible on the ground - and IIRC, they even broadcast (from Bangladeshi Muslims often) what the Pakistanis were doing. In short, people all over the world could see that India believed in what it was claiming. The point is - IF we are making the case that Pakistan is a terrorist state, we should put our money where our mouths are. Otherwise, it is meaningless. Of course, if we are not claiming that Pakistan is a terrorist state & that it is a generally acceptable dialogue partner with some unfortunate terrorists in its territory, then that is another matter. These half & half measures, with some chest thumping, will not convince anyone.

We are investing a ton in Afghanistan ($1B, IIRC). How about demanding that they take concrete measures that will hurt Pakistan? Do we see any new law in Afghanistan that is upsetting Pakistan? Also Iran. All these will be visible much before any actions are taken against Pakistan, if MAD are planning anything against it. Some things just cannot be hidden. All this talk of `exposing Pakistan' in UN, while doing business with it ourselves will make us the laughing stock. Anyway, you cannot `expose Pakistan' on terror - it is like threatening to expose a prostitute with sex tapes. That is free advertisement for them.

How much coverage is the atrocities on Baluch & PoJK folks getting in India? Apart from Modi mentioning it in a few speeches, I have not seen much on the ground. Have the Baluch & PoJK conferences on the areas been established in India? A free Baluchistan/PoJK centre? All these are not clandestine activity - they are open & regular, IF we believe that the Baluch & the PoJK folks are being oppressed & we believe in liberating them. When Indira went against Pakistan in 1971, she did the Mukti-Bahini propaganda openly. This is not clandestine activity. This is normal preparation. The Pakistanis would take us more seriously if we begin educating the INDIANS about Baluchistan & PoJK. Are we doing any of it? I just don't see anything like that now.
Last edited by Shanmukh on 20 Sep 2016 21:45, edited 1 time in total.

Rudradev
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3507
Joined: 06 Apr 2003 12:31

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Rudradev » 20 Sep 2016 21:44

Forget about satisfying jingo hearts sir. This current ruling dispensation is only about satisfying industrialist hearts and to the hell with our soldiers dying in Kashmir. I totally agree with what the father of a brave heart who recently said, "None of my other children is going to join IA if Modi does not strike." That is a very valid view. Why should the poor pay for their lives and the elite live in manicured gardens in Delhi and only make noises?
Think about it, this party, yes BJP, is ready to continue its coalition in J&K with another party, yes PDP, despite what PDP's government has done in undoing all the hard work of our security forces in the past 4 years. I used to think that UPA-II was the hall mark of incompetence, this BJP+PDP ruling government has beaten UPA-II by light years and yet BJP continues with this this coalition in J&K.

And about covert capabilities, we were pretty vocal when IA went into Burma recently. Will Modi have the guts to do what Indira did in 1971, doubtfull. Does he have half the heart of Lal Bhadur Shastri to order what LBS had ordered in 1965 to IA to cross the IB in face of provocation in Kashmir, ABSOLUTELY NONE.


Fair enough boss. Let's go back to Sharm-el-Shaikh and Thimphu declarations, CBMs and demilitarizing Siachen and handing over Sir Creek. "Joint sovereignty" over J&K as was being discussed with Musharraf. Admitting, falsely, that we were involved in fomenting rebellion in Baluchistan to the same extent that Pakistan is involved in terrorism in J&K. Let's also throw in Hindu terrorism as the greatest threat to South Asia, Hindu terrorists bombed the Samjhauta Express, and everything else the UPA II asserted. Light-years ahead of where we are, surely.

Meanwhile, the ground was prepared for the December 1971 war starting from events in East Pakistan a full year previously, beginning December 1970. The ground was prepared for the September 1965 war beginning from Pakistani intrusions in the Rann of Kutch at least five months previously in April 1965. There was a lot more to either of those Indian responses than simply having "guts" or "heart". But don't let me dampen your outrage, sir.

Gagan
BRF Oldie
Posts: 11195
Joined: 16 Apr 2008 22:25

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Gagan » 20 Sep 2016 21:49

People are worried about the Uri terror strike?

Wait till Bugti arrives in India and sets up a baloch government in exile.
Then we'll see terror strikes - we're talking about 26/11 type events in our cities. Pak Mil will go ballistic !

What the current GoI is doing is going to make things very difficult for the pak fauj. They already have Afghanistan, bangladesh on their sides. Iran can be expected to be outwardly neutral due to cheeni presence, but silently supportive of India.
But the steps that are being taken will potentially solve the Pakistan problem

Suresh S
BRFite
Posts: 727
Joined: 25 Dec 2008 22:19

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby Suresh S » 20 Sep 2016 21:50

[b]To me it is interesting that Putin did not react to Turkey's shooting down of a Russian aircraft. He stuck to his guns and came out looking good. His political gambles have been more successful than Ombaba's second term.[/b]

In the FSB shiv agents undergo extensive psychological testing. They are taught not just react to situations but think it through and than take a decision. To give an example. Recent cold blooded bombing of syrian posiions in Deir azzor with 7 russian special forces among the dead. Do not expect Putin to flail his arms and attack american soldiers. More likely Joint Russian /Iranian op to use Iraqi shia militia to attack american targets in Iraq will be one way.

As they say if angry count to 10 and if very angry count to 20.

First reaction is always revenge but u must not do it . The enemy wants u to do it and he is waiting for u. How many times there is a terrorist attack and as people do the expected more lives are lost as they attack funeral processions, exits were people are fleeing etc.

I do not expect modi to react and if he does I will be surprised. India is not ready for full scale war, congis made sure of that. Most importantly the air defense shield is not in place from public info available.Barak-8 not yet deployed, anti ballistic missile shield not fully in place to protect major cities, S-400 not obtained yet etc. Once a robust air defense is in place to give maximum protection from nuclear attack ( it will never be 100% effective ) I expect Modi to attack puki land for that aar par ke ladai, not until than.

Expect more severe attacks in the near future from shitistan
Last edited by Suresh S on 20 Sep 2016 21:54, edited 2 times in total.

RoyG
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5180
Joined: 10 Aug 2009 05:10

Re: In response to the Uri Terrorist Attack...

Postby RoyG » 20 Sep 2016 21:53

It's obvious the PA just sacrificed 15-16 who rank the lowest on the jihad totem pole to pacify GoI. Even then they still managed to swat another one of our guys.

And then right after they began opening up on LoC to save face.

IMO, they want to preempt anything that may happen to them.

I think they are very scared this time. I've never a sacrifice like this before.

They knew the specialized border/CI units would be on full alert after an attack like this.

Have a feeling we're going to order a hit on their PA/ISI officer corp.


Return to “Trash Can Archive”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 29 guests