LCA: News & Discussions - October 2016

prabhug · Post by **prabhug** » 09 May 2017 16:22

Is this death Nail for LCA?

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/05/ ... blood.html

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 May 2017 17:15

prabhug wrote:Is this death Nail for LCA?

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/05/ ... blood.html

New foreign fighter is years off. There is no way it will get through within the next five to ten years. Too many issues to resolve regarding Indian partner workshare and supply chain along with ToT, and features/customisation and price negotiation. Then there is support infrastructure and training to setup.

If the IAF wants more fighters quicker, it would need to get more MKI, LCA, second hand MiG-29/Mirage-2000, and possibly some more Rafales.

From that report it sounds like SAM are going to be cut. Probably the follow-on 7 squadron Akash order will be cut.

RKumar · Post by **RKumar** » 09 May 2017 17:25

Probably the follow-on 7 squadron Akash order will be cut.

This should never be even thought ....

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 May 2017 18:32

RKumar wrote:
Probably the follow-on 7 squadron Akash order will be cut.
This should never be even thought ....

See below. The choice to cut SAM will be among these: S-400 (5 regiments), MRSAM Barak-8 (9 squadrons), SRSAM Akash (7 squadrons follow-on) and LLQRSAM Spyder (9 squadrons).

http://www.livefistdefence.com/2017/05/ ... blood.html

...
Livefist has learnt that in the weeks and months ahead, a far more realistic acquisition ethic is to become apparent from the Indian Air Force’s requirements wing. The re-ordering of modernisation priorities mentioned above will produce a new list that expunges several declared ‘big ticket’ acquisition plans. Top sources indicate that a clinical pruning (or ‘rationalisation’) of the IAF’s surface-to-air missile requirement, for instance, could be chief among this series of moves.
...

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 May 2017 18:41

This was already known. Parrikar asked IAF to reduce MRSAM numbers given IAF was getting S-400.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/new ... 366381.cms

NEW DELHI: In a rare exercise, India's air defence plans have been altered after an intervention by defence minister Parrikar that may have saved the taxpayer Rs 49,300 crore in acquisitions over the next decade.

Sources told ET that the revaluation conducted by the air force concluded that with the S400 acquisition, the long term acquisition plan for over 100 each Medium and Short range systems have been cut down.

IMHO, the IAF will still get Akash, Akash NG, QRSAM since procurement has been sanctioned - the numbers will be lower though than "100" batteries etc for the category. Even at 50, that's 24 squadrons. Similarly MRSAM units currently ordered are 18 batteries, that was projected to rise to 100 batteries. That will also drop.

My take is that IAF will want more MRSAM because of capability but the sheer affordability of the Akash class is also a big deal as is this GOI's Make in India imperative.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 May 2017 18:43

This report came out after the IAF's follow on order for seven more squadrons for Akash, which was reported in Standing Committee of Defence and MOD Report much later. And which has also gone to DAC, CCS etc.

The reduced number of squadrons will affect overall numbers of Akash NG and QR/SRSAM procurement.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 May 2017 18:45

Also look at minimum range requirements. The S-400 class system overlaps with MRSAM more but not with Akash NG/Akash class (50 km and below). The AF has to take that into account as well, and currently it lacks any CIWS system. QR/SRSAM is Akash Mk1 range class. Akash NG is in between Akash Mk1 and MRSAM but will definitely be less expensive because the radar is Indian.

srai · Post by **srai** » 09 May 2017 18:46

100 batteries each of SRSAM and MRSAM! That's a huge expansion over the past.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 09 May 2017 19:10

I hope this no-nonsense trimming puts stop to the idiotic idea of procuring MII Single engine fighter, and put that economic power firmly behind LCA Mk1A/MK2.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 09 May 2017 19:18

JayS, you have hopes brother.

Let me predict that the IAF's budget will firmly put a focus on buying 2 more squadrons of Rafales and then also the MII fighter, perhaps in 126 only and not more. LCA Mk1A additional orders doubtful.
Similarly, in culling MRSAM and SRSAM categories, IAF will have to strike a balance between both, because it "wants" more MRSAM but can afford more SRSAM..

So it goes..

I don't have much hopes for IAF doing right by the LCA and placing significantly more orders unless the GOI literally makes them do so by MOD push plus funding.

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 09 May 2017 19:19

Clinical pruning sounds precisely like what the IA DGMFs did to the MBT. Some of that love will be extended to the LCA so that one more squadron of key capability can be imported. I'd be happy to see it otherwise but this rationalization and optimization phrase is often used in specific contexts. IAF is borrowing the concept from itivity onlee.
Karan, had already written this out. So my rona dhona is at least in line with our collective fears.

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 11 May 2017 11:13

#Tejas LSP4 to fire Derby Missile today at 1045 hrs as part of ongoing trials at Kalaikunda. - Tarmak007

Khalsa · Post by **Khalsa** » 11 May 2017 13:16

@Indranil
Are you able to break down the schedule of 2017
@anyone
does anyone have a projected delivery schedule of any more aircrafts this year.

The Squadron only has two aircrafts right ?

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 11 May 2017 15:31

Khalsa wrote:@Indranil
Are you able to break down the schedule of 2017
@anyone
does anyone have a projected delivery schedule of any more aircrafts this year.

The Squadron only has two aircrafts right ?

IAF has 3 for sure and most probably SP4 is also handed over. So total 4. They also use the Trainer version, I suppose, but not officially IAF bird.

2017-18 should have seen 8 aircraft deliveries. i.e. till SP10 by Dec-17. But LCA FB admin says target is to deliver SP7 by this Dec-17. It means they are running late.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 11 May 2017 15:32

ashishvikas wrote:#Tejas LSP4 to fire Derby Missile today at 1045 hrs as part of ongoing trials at Kalaikunda. - Tarmak007

AoA. Any more updates on this..??

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 11 May 2017 15:41

Tejas saab reached Kalaikunda possibly the first time it went far east ? this one and the A2A refuelling(anything on this ?) and the gun were the major opens towards FOC? Nowadays, i am having much more confidence on ADA holding to deadlines with +20% overshoot but the production runs not meeting schedules has become the norm

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 11 May 2017 16:04

JayS wrote:
ashishvikas wrote:#Tejas LSP4 to fire Derby Missile today at 1045 hrs as part of ongoing trials at Kalaikunda. - Tarmak007
AoA. Any more updates on this..??

No, not hearing anything till now.

But can this Flight trial of British drone Banshee be for Tejas ?
http://www.newindianexpress.com/states/ ... 03573.html

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 11 May 2017 17:12

JayS wrote:
ashishvikas wrote:#Tejas LSP4 to fire Derby Missile today at 1045 hrs as part of ongoing trials at Kalaikunda. - Tarmak007
AoA. Any more updates on this..??

http://www.indiandefensenews.in/2017/05 ... ssile.html

suryag · Post by **suryag** » 11 May 2017 17:40

this looks like an idrw kind of website relying on their sources

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 11 May 2017 18:20

#Breaking Derby missile, guided by radar fired from #Tejas LSP4 hits target bang on during trials at Kalaikunda. FOC now @ striking distance - Tarmak007

https://twitter.com/writetake/status/862651144773881860

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 11 May 2017 19:52

Have been very busy lately and this will continue for another month or so.

1. Technically, they were supposed to provide SP2 last year, and then 6 (not

aircraft this year. So, if they deliver LSP7 by end of this year, they will be on schedule for providing 6 aircraft this year, but one aircraft behind on the original schedule. Anyways, LSP 8 will follow shortly. Because, if I understand the production line correctly, LSP 7 and LSP 8 would be built concurrently on two different lines.
2. BVR testing was supposed to be against Lakshya. I don't know if this was changed later on.
3. IFR testing: IAF wants the aircraft with the probe to be cleared for all parts of the envelop. Actual refueling in air has been pushed beyond FOC (shouldn't be a hassle).

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 11 May 2017 20:40

AKN once tweeted (2015) LCA induction plan given by MP. according to that this was the plan for numbers inducted in IAF.
16-17: 8
17-18: 24
18-19: 40
19-20: 56
20-21: 72
21-22: 88
22-23: 104
22-25: 120

This was the schedule tweeted by AKN few months ago, for first 40 jets.
16-17: 5
17-18: 8
18-19: 12
19-20: 16

Considering only the later plan, which is the latest - they are late. By March-17 There should have been 5 jets inducted (that is till SP6, since SP1 was inducted long time ago, 5 more takes the number to SP6).

Between April-17 to March-18, total 8 were planned to be delivered. That is they were suppose to hit the 8/yr production rate for first line.

I do not know beyond this.

nvishal · Post by **nvishal** » 11 May 2017 23:20

A good way to understand the progress of tejas:

As per stockholm arms transfer register: sipri.org/databases/armstransfers

Engine orders since 1990-2016 from USA to india - Three instances total

F404 Turbofan
2004 - 20 units (5 units delivered in 2016). 15 maybe cancelled and deal abandoned

2007 - 24 units (no deliveries yet) Maybe order never concluded

F414 Turbofan

2012 - 99 units - deal conceived as 19 units over the counter and 81 units made in india. Order was conceived but never placed

2017 - 2 units delivered in feb (may not be related to above order). More 6 units scheduled to arrive later this year

--------

IMO, we may not have more than a dozen f404 engines in our godown, mostly being used in tejas prototypes. With no orders in tube, the aim seems to be firmly placed on concluding kaveri through rafael offsets. Tejas will not go into any real production before this. In the meantime, I expect a few gripen order to account for the delay

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 11 May 2017 23:43

Too much conjecture there nvishal. Gripen is gone. Kaveri for Mk1a is impossible at this point.
GE orders information might not be the right track. No one sets up 8-12 jigs if they intend waiting for such a major change.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 May 2017 00:01

He atleast based his post on data.
How about rebutting with data?

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 12 May 2017 00:15

How can one rebut statements like deal probably abandoned or never concluded? This information will be available in the next CAG report. What data can one present about Kaveri integration when the likely dates shared are 2019 and this is discussed on a separate thread. Data that is useful is that there are three assembly sheds in place. Without engines, would any manufacturer expand?

2004 - 17 404 IN20 ordered.
2007 - 24 more IN20 ordered as follow up order.
Would be happy to see open source information on the numbers delivered.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 12 May 2017 01:01

How about checking GE engine webpages to see if any orders placed?

Just asking.

Indranil · Post by **Indranil** » 12 May 2017 02:30

nvishal wrote:A good way to understand the progress of tejas:

As per stockholm arms transfer register: sipri.org/databases/armstransfers

Engine orders since 1990-2016 from USA to india - Three instances total

F404 Turbofan
2004 - 20 units (5 units delivered in 2016). 15 maybe cancelled and deal abandoned

2007 - 24 units (no deliveries yet) Maybe order never concluded

This cannot be correct, can it? We have had 2 TDs, 5 PVs, 7 LSPs, 2 NPs, and 4 SPs already. That's 20 engines already.

nvishal wrote: F414 Turbofan

2012 - 99 units - deal conceived as 19 units over the counter and 81 units made in india. Order was conceived but never placed

2017 - 2 units delivered in feb (may not be related to above order). More 6 units scheduled to arrive later this year

This is true. And V.K. Saraswat sir said that they both had faults. He openly asked the GE persons in the audience at Aero India seminar as to how come with thousands of such engines, the two specific ones delivered to India had problems.

nvishal wrote: IMO, we may not have more than a dozen f404 engines in our godown, mostly being used in tejas prototypes. With no orders in tube, the aim seems to be firmly placed on concluding kaveri through rafael offsets. Tejas will not go into any real production before this. In the meantime, I expect a few gripen order to account for the delay

Speculation without merit.

fanne · Post by **fanne** » 12 May 2017 03:54

SIPRI db is not credible at all, full of wrong numbers

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 12 May 2017 06:15

not always. some of ther info is good, some bad, crosscheck.

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 May 2017 07:05

SIPRI data is usually good for initial contract data (total value or quantity) as those are more widely reported. However, deliveries are harder to track through public sources as those are not as widely reported. SIPRI seems to rely heavily on public sources and they maintain a large data for all countries. They don't have the resources to accurately follow every deal for every country.

As Karan pointed out, one needs to cross-check data reported by SIPRI. Take a look at an example Indranil posted, which makes it obvious that the delivery data for F-404 engine is incomplete. If only 5 were delivered out of 20 + 24 ordered, how are all the TD (2), PV (5), NP (2), LSPs (8) and SP (4) flying?

vish_mulay · Post by **vish_mulay** » 12 May 2017 12:00

https://mobile.twitter.com/delhidefence ... 2217596928
LCA Derby trial successful. Direct hit!
Sorry just realised already posted. Apologies

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 May 2017 13:08

Marten · Post by **Marten** » 12 May 2017 15:22

ramana wrote:How about checking GE engine webpages to see if any orders placed?

Just asking.

This is the 2007 news release for 404: https://www.geaviation.com/press-releas ... t-aircraft

And this is the 414 news release that everyone from Aroor to Shooklaw shared: http://www.geaviation.com/press-release ... ft-program

The next update was from Raghu Krishnan via the Business Standard (about the 2 F414 delivered, and 6 more soon).

The Tejas fighter is been powered by the GE-404 engine since its development and the IAF plans to induct over 120 planes with the same engine.So far, India has ordered around 100 engines for the fighter from GE and plans to buy more engines in the coming years.

"The first two engines are for flight test. They are ready to go as and when the plane is ready. We are committed to deliver six more engines," said Mark Pearson, who leads the military engine programme for GE in an interview.

jayasimha · Post by **jayasimha** » 12 May 2017 16:07

^^
http://drdo.nic.in/drdo/pub/npc/2015/de ... ec2015.pdf

This is what i could get in 2015 papers regarding GE 414
-----------
Business Standard 12 December 2015
US to help India develop engine for Gen-5 fighter
----------------
The Times of India 14 December 2015
World’s smallest combat jet's Mark-II avatar to be longer
---------------
Deccan Herald 12 December 2015
US for jet engine tech transfer to India
---------------------
The Tribune 12 December 2015
US effects big change in engine tech transfer
------------------------------
Since these things are in DRDO website, some thing must be happening inhouse/with_collaboration.

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 12 May 2017 16:10

VIDEO - Tejas Fires Derby Missile
Derby Missile in RADAR guided mode fired from LCA Tejas LSP-4. The missile achieved a direct hit during the trial conducted at Kalaikunda, West Bengal.

https://twitter.com/writetake/status/862977964538974208

http://gallery.tejas.gov.in/Gallery/LCA ... -X6KVsjC/A

https://twitter.com/writetake/status/862981312604327936

Gyan · Post by **Gyan** » 12 May 2017 16:16

Karan M wrote:This report came out after the IAF's follow on order for seven more squadrons for Akash, which was reported in Standing Committee of Defence and MOD Report much later. And which has also gone to DAC, CCS etc.

The reduced number of squadrons will affect overall numbers of Akash NG and QR/SRSAM procurement.

If you are tracking Akash, you would have noticed that BDL has ****** up the production. They have achieved only 20% of the target and even if they acceletate, they will only complete the order in 2025 instead of 2018.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 12 May 2017 16:35

srai · Post by **srai** » 12 May 2017 18:18

ashishvikas · Post by **ashishvikas** » 12 May 2017 18:58

#Tejas SP-6 will fly first ahead of SP-5.

(Expected in June)

https://twitter.com/writetake/status/863021295251763200