Morbid Rubbernecking: New Korean War?

[UlanBatori]

Singhaji: My estimate is 100K. HOPE there is some plan.... I agree that the latest test was probably OK and ended close off the coast either by the NoKos or by others. The lack of overt action suggests that test was ended by others, conveying message and satisfying H&D of at least the military and maybe Classified Bikinis given to Senators.

[UlanBatori]

More silliness from those who brought us the Bay of Pigs, jumping into the morass of Vietnam, support for Pakistani genocide in Bengal, the Iraq War and the disastrous "policies" in Somalia, Serbia, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan...

We are now at an existential moment, where North Korea must be confronted with a fundamental choice: Either it will face crippling global economic sanctions (including a Chinese oil embargo) that could trigger the collapse of the regime, or it will negotiate a verifiable end to its nuclear weapons development program.

The North’s willingness to give up its weapons program would serve as a prerequisite for talks about new ways to defuse tensions on the Korean peninsula—including a peace treaty that recognizes the North Korean regime, normalization of relations between the U.S. and North Korea, and flows of investment and trade that would help to modernize the North’s economy. Toward the end of Bill Clinton’s presidency, when he was pursuing a diplomatic approach to resolving the North Korean nuclear threat, former U.S. Defense Secretary William Perry found the North Koreans to be seriously interested in the prospect of normalizing relations with the U.S.

And months later they conducted new tests of nukes and missiles...

[UlanBatori]

Correction: Per the Indian Embassy in Seoul, January 2016

The total number of Indian nationals living in ROK is estimated to be around 11,500

25 flights on AI 747s. Or 50 flights by C-17s and An-12s from the beaches if the airports are smoking and glowing.

Of course their "Ambassador Speeches" page is blank, so I wonder how reliable this number is.

[UlanBatori]

Meanwhile: Kangaroo Salwar-shivering by Guardian-Paki Issa

North Korea’s immediate neighbours – China, South Korea and Japan – are three of Australia’s top four trading partners, the other being the US. A war, which would probably involve all four powers, would have a direct and immediate impact on Australia’s economy. Canberra is rightly {diaper-wetting} about the destabilising effects a Korean war would bring.

[Gagan]

Le Mistrel can carry half a dozen Tigre attack helicopters, to strafe at NoKo gun positions from the sea
I don't think they will do an amphibious ground landing to hold territory right away. But later, they can launch 40 lecrec tanks, 900 combat troops to hold quite a bit of beach if the area is initially cleared.

So a decent build up is in progress. I give it 1 month or so for all the necessary pieces to fall in place.

India wants 4 Mistral sized Amphibious assault ships to be built, and the contracts are just out?

[Gagan]

The other thing happening now, is that Cheen is chamkaaoing its P5 power in the UN and at the security council. It has suddenly found a voice. It is learning to play the big game, from being a second rung P5 earlier

The US may end up taking out the NoKo dictator, but the Jhapad is squarely being planted at Peaking, which is becoming Pee-King, given the size of the armada and the fire power amassing in the Yellow sea and the sea of Japan.

It'll be interesting to know if the Cheenis have moved assets from Hainan Island north to bases in Yellow sea

[UlanBatori]

The NoKo 6-Talks Party I mean 6-Party-Talks, were always about making the stupid loundeye gaijin capitarist imperliarist lunning dogs andp papel tigels come on their knees to let Uncle Ereven mediate their squabbles with little NoKo. Remains to be seen how boldly the Zee calls their bluff. It won't be pretty to watch. If US acts also on the SCS islands, PeeAllSee will try to grab Taiwan to make up for loss of NoKo. Maybe also Phillippines. Maybe Okinawa as well. And they will try to get Iran and TSP to act up again with mijjiles and nukes salvaged from NoKo.

[Gagan]

Now this is a purely speculative post, and things may not be correct, but from what I gather from the net...
See, the chinese 2nd artillery corps has a missile base in Houwangton 39° 9'9.82"N, 122° 4'46.00"E, where one can see many ding-dongs

THAAD is possibly deployed at Seongjun, SoKo

This is well south of Seoul. The SAMs are deployed some 650 Km away from the Chinese launch site.

Seoul has a ring of Hawk XXI missiles covering it from all directions, and then some deployed along the ceasefire line with NoKo. NoKo has a line of SA-2 SAMs deployed at the ceasefire line.

[UlanBatori]

IMO, THAAD and Patriot can also be used quite nicely against fighter and bomber planes at long range. In GelfWar-2 there was at least one a/c lost to "friendly fire" from Patriot, IIRC.

[Gagan]

The korean armistice was signed on July 27,1953.
Wonder if it will be broken on July 27, 2017, 64 yrs later.

[Austin]

Russia in the UN Security Council endorsed the proposal by China on North Korea

http://www.interfax.ru/world/560543

Moscow. April 29. INTERFAX.RU - At a meeting of the UN Security Council, held on the day before, Russia supported the Chinese proposal for a "double suspension" as a starting point for negotiations, said on Saturday, the Russian Foreign Ministry.

"The wide-ranging discussion the Council members unanimously called on North Korea to abandon the nuclear and missile tests and the implementation of relevant UN Security Council resolutions at the same time sounded a call for the need to find a political and diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue on the Korean Peninsula.", - said the Foreign Minister.

"In this context, the Russian Federation supported the Chinese proposal for a" double suspension "( termination of Pyongyang's missile and nuclear tests in exchange for the waiver of the US-South Korean military exercises near North Korea ) as a starting point, the beginning of political negotiations", - underlined in the message.

Ministry of Foreign Affairs said that no decision was taken following the meeting.

Russia at an open meeting of the UN Security Council on the issue of North Korea was represented by Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov.

[UlanBatori]

Aha! Now comes the PeeAllSee's Fliendry plopsosar: US back off and go home, and NoKo delays tests. :LOL

IOW, Capitalist Imperialist carriers/ SoKoRunning Dogs come anywhere NEAR NoKo coast again, NoKo tests. Until then, tests are "suspended". Very interesting to see how this plays in Mar Largo.

[UlanBatori]

From SoKo on the NoKo launch:

The South Korean military said the missile reached an altitude of 71 km (44 miles) before disintegrating. It said the launch was a clear violation of U.N. resolutions and warned the North not to act rashly. Kim Dong-yub, an expert at Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said North Korea might have got the data it wanted with the missile's short flight, then blown it up in a bid to limit the anger of China, which warned Pyongyang against further provocation.

IMO the Chinese have now played their usual card. The UNSC is clearly **NOT*** going to support military action. China plays the equal-equal, reducing the US to the level of NoKO:

In a commentary on Saturday, China's official Xinhua news agency said both North Korea and the United States needed to tread cautiously.
"If both sides fail to make such necessary concessions, then not only will the two countries, but the whole region and the whole world end up paying a heavy price for a possible confrontation."

See, it's all neatly reduced to NoKo vs. USA. Equal-equal.

Since it is clear that the UNSC won't act, the decision is on the Zee: Attack, or withdraw in humiliation.

[sum]

Correction: Per the Indian Embassy in Seoul, January 2016

The total number of Indian nationals living in ROK is estimated to be around 11,500

25 flights on AI 747s. Or 50 flights by C-17s and An-12s from the beaches if the airports are smoking and glowing.

Of course their "Ambassador Speeches" page is blank, so I wonder how reliable this number is.

Saar i believe thats a reasonable ballpark figure with around 2-3k illegal folks extra.
Embassy had already sent a notice few days back asking to be alert but doesnt look like any major panic or moves planned

[Bheeshma]

Wonder what the morale in pindi is seeing all noki missiles blowing up like pindhi chana explosions?? I hope India is invested in ECM and other soft kill measures.

[shiv]

I don't know if anyone noticed. When Trump accused NoKo of not listening to China - this was as much a barb against China as NoKo. He was saying "I note that NoKo is now out of Chinese control and something different may be needed"

[UlanBatori]

Ah yes of course. It was like Sir Don Quixote Trump de La MarLargo rising to defend the honor, dignity and sovirginity of Eleven. They are trying very hard to insult each other. Mark of a budding love affair, each wanting to bugger the other.

[UlanBatori]

Trump downplayed the significance of North Korea's "small missile launch," which occurred early in the day. But when asked by host John Dickerson if he would consider military action in response to another nuclear test, Trump responded: "I don't know. I mean, we'll see."
Later, when asked at during a factory tour before a rally in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania, to mark his 100th day in office what his message on North Korea is, Trump told reporters: "You'll soon find out, won't you?"

Pressed on whether that meant military action, Trump said, "You'll soon find out."
The missile launched Saturday blew up over land in North Korean territory, said US Navy Cmdr. Dave Benham, a spokesman for the US Pacific Command.
Trump cast the launch as a direct snub of China, one of North Korea's only allies and a nation seen by the Trump administration as a potential US ally in efforts to stamp out Pyongyang's nuclear program.
"North Korea disrespected the wishes of China & its highly respected President when it launched, though unsuccessfully, a missile today. Bad!" Trump tweeted after the launch.

Eleven has weak mijjile. Wee Dong.

[Deans]

The window during which NoKo can credibly threaten others is closing. The economy is getting worse each year - and therefore the propensity of
its citizens to rebel (or at least be less than enthusiastic about war). This also greatly reduces the ability of NoKo to maintain its army. Most of the artillery in their exercises looked like stuff from the 70s. They have a real guns vs. rice debate and they have money for neither.

At the same time the technological and economic gap between NoKo and SoKo / US is increasing. An anti missile system will soon be a reality - with systems like THAAD, Cyber and Space warfare, which means that NoKo's only offensive ability will be from its tube artillery and the life expectancy of those systems in a war is reducing each year. NoKo's airforce and navy wont last a day.

At the same time Dear Fatboy is probably the weakest of the 3 Kim's, in terms of his ability to run his country and negotiate with the West. Being silly, unpredictable and under a lot of pressure to act before his ability to threaten ends, is a dangerous combination.
That gets exacerbated by the unpredictable nature of Trump and his administration and the hawkish orientation of his team towards NoKo.
War could start through a series of miscalculations, one feeding on the next, much like it did in 1914.

[ramana]

From SoKo on the NoKo launch:

The South Korean military said the missile reached an altitude of 71 km (44 miles) before disintegrating. It said the launch was a clear violation of U.N. resolutions and warned the North not to act rashly. Kim Dong-yub, an expert at Kyungnam University's Institute of Far Eastern Studies in Seoul, said North Korea might have got the data it wanted with the missile's short flight, then blown it up in a bid to limit the anger of China, which warned Pyongyang against further provocation.

NoKo missile reaching 71 km ie about 232 k ft means its above First stage separation. It blew up during second stage flight. Either command destruct or auto destruct. Interesting. They are provoking.

[Rudradev]

Does the altitude of 71 km have any significance as regards the capacity of THAAD or other US missile defence systems to intercept? Some threshold they defiantly crossed to send an unnerving message to those in the know?

[Austin]

Does the altitude of 71 km have any significance as regards the capacity of THAAD or other US missile defence systems to intercept? Some threshold they defiantly crossed to send an unnerving message to those in the know?

THAAD intercepts at max 150 km altitude.

Looks like issue with interstage breakdown , either second stage did not start or they could have collided

[Austin]

Billionaire bunkers: How the 1% are preparing for the apocalypse

http://edition.cnn.com/2017/03/20/luxur ... index.html

[kapilrdave]

I tend to believe Trump's assertion that NoKo is out of eleven's hand. There is absolutely nothing to gain by war for cheen. More likely they are shit scared of the war. The recent proposal by cheen and roos about preventing the war indicates the same. The equal equal between NoKo and JooEss indicates that it wants to remain the third party and eager to play the arbitrator's role. In other words, they don't want to involve in the war if it happens. The sabotage of missile might well be the handy work of cheen but that's pretty much all they can do to stop the war. If they could do more, they wouldn't be giving useless proposals right now. They would be building and sticking up like JooEss is doing.

So NoKo is all alone in this game and cheen will do something with its thumb, its behind and khujli.

[kapilrdave]

It is also noteworthy that most of the talking from Khan's side is done by the POTUS himself! As if this is his personal project! While this is somewhat funny, it also raises the stakes very high. On the other hand, kim jong gandhi is leaving no stone unturned to provoke!

Jab miya bibi razi to kya karega kazi?

Entertainment shuru kiya jaae!

[Singha]

Not many know that russia has a 50km border with noko.

About 100km south of vladivostok

[Karthik S]

17 km border.

[UlanBatori]

17 km border.

Didn't realize it is that small. There is a stretch north of that where NoKo is West of a lake/river, Russia is well to the East, and in between there seems to be an isolated sliver of noComradesLand with even a road and all - how can that be China? But it is! Fangchuan National Scenic Area. With 1390 County Road running by Shakao Peak Paozi and Zhanggu Peak Paozi. Seems like the same stuff they are pulling, putting Chinese names to Mt. Appukkuttan, Anappara Peak etc. in Northern Arunachal. Russians seem as enthusiastic as desi babucracy in caring for their areas at least on the map. China owns the whole East Bank of the River Tumen per Google!!! Strange map. The Russia border cuts right into the middle of the river somewhere north of this!

Which raises the issue of where all those trainloads of mijjiles and heavy weapons/SAMs were going (see some pages b4) from Vladivostok, as reported by villagers in that area. My take is that they were going right through the border down into NoKo. Comrade Ivan to Comrade No Dong. Or else Putin is planning to use the coming conflagration to rationalize the border and make it 300 km long. If PeeAllSee were to use the confusion to move a float a few companies down the Tumen River through there, Russia would lose all that coastline in a day. And down there coastline is precious because they don't have a lot in winter: this part is their access to the Sea of Japan.

[chola]

I tend to believe Trump's assertion that NoKo is out of eleven's hand. There is absolutely nothing to gain by war for cheen. More likely they are shit scared of the war. The recent proposal by cheen and roos about preventing the war indicates the same. The equal equal between NoKo and JooEss indicates that it wants to remain the third party and eager to play the arbitrator's role. In other words, they don't want to involve in the war if it happens. The sabotage of missile might well be the handy work of cheen but that's pretty much all they can do to stop the war. If they could do more, they wouldn't be giving useless proposals right now. They would be building and sticking up like JooEss is doing.

So NoKo is all alone in this game and cheen will do something with its thumb, its behind and khujli.

Cheen likes to build shiny new toys for its military but to actually use then? It's been chickenshit for four decades and with all those single kids supporting three pairs of parents and grandparents, it will grow only more chickenshit in the coming years.

RAW should set off a bomb somewhere in this mess and get the lizard embroiled in big fight in the east so we can recover everything and then some from 1962 in the west. Can we ever be that Chanakyaian?

[UlanBatori]

Can we ever be that Chanakyaian?
Best bet right now is that the festivities turn into a 3-way fest. In all prior wars (except their attempt to Teach Vietnam a Lesson) PeeAllSee has come out stronger, not weaker, though they lost maybe a million in Korea (per US sites claiming that US troops at Chosin Rejervoir could not put their feet on the ground because ground was covered with Chinese corpses. Chinese websites say: "How could the Americans count ? They were running so hard their feet were not touching the ground")

A serious blow to H&D such as loss of NoKo leading to absorption of No into SoKo could trigger some tectonics in Beijing with fission at Xinjiang, Tibet and Inner Mongolia. Old-timers will point to the incompetence of the effete capitarist lunning dog camp forrowel NewGen Wunderkinden who allowed the Historic Al-Lie to be eaten up by the evil Impeliarist, and the southern camp forrowels to become powerful, Also loss of the Tumen River warm water Sea of Japan access to the Levisionists. This should lead to present Leadership being paraded around Beijing with wooden boards around their necks before the cattle-car vacation trip to the Gobi Le-Education Centel.

Now THAT would be interesting. This is why the Russian weapons rush to the NoKo border is so interesting.
But I am dreaming. Most probably Carrier Group will decide that they are urgently needed at the bars of Waikiki and Trump's attention will be diverted to the growing threat from Costa Rica.

[UlanBatori]

[url=ttps://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/30/world/asia/d ... .html?_r=0]Roundeye speak with forked tongue: US confirms it will pay for mijjile defense system, SoKo says[/url]

SEOUL, South Korea — The Trump administration has reaffirmed that the United States will pay for a missile defense battery it is deploying in South Korea, despite President Trump’s recent statement that he wanted Seoul to cover the cost, officials here said Sunday.

Mr. Trump caused alarm here on Thursday when he told Reuters that he wanted South Korea to pay for the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, known as Thaad, which is being installed as a defense against North Korean missiles. According to South Korea, the two allies had agreed that the Americans would pay for the system and its operation and maintenance, with Seoul providing land and supporting infrastructure.

On Sunday, the White House national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, called his South Korean counterpart, Kim Kwan-jin, and “the two reconfirmed what has already been agreed” about the system’s costs, Mr. Kim’s office said in a statement....Since Mr. Trump’s remark, all of the major candidates in South Korea’s May 9 presidential election had accused him of violating the Thaad agreement. One minor candidate, Sim Sang-jung, went so far as to say that the United States should “pack its Thaad and take it out of South Korea.”

The candidate leading in the polls, Moon Jae-in, called for an immediate suspension of the Thaad deployment. Mr. Moon, a liberal, had already pledged to review South Korea’s decision to accept the system if elected. He said Park Geun-hye, the conservative president who was ousted in March over a corruption scandal, should have sought Parliament’s approval before agreeing to the deployment.

I would say that the SoKos seem as concerned about NoKo mijjiles as the average American is

[Singha]

They have their lutyens elites too who will work for kim happily.

[UlanBatori]

Here's the rest of that:

Mr. Trump’s remarks added to unease here about the new American president, who as a candidate accused the country of not contributing enough to the costs of its own defense. Though most South Koreans value the country’s military alliance with the United States as a bulwark against North Korea’s escalating missile and nuclear threats, many were miffed by Mr. Trump’s accusations. South Korea already contributes nearly $810 million a year toward the cost of maintaining the U.S. military presence here, in addition to providing land and infrastructure. The country is also one of the biggest buyers of American weapons.

[UlanBatori]

I frankly don't see how this deal works. Why SHOULD US pay for protecting South Korea, anyway? Seems like the SoKos feel that they need no such protection, they are sort-of allowing the Americans to come and sit out there to to the NoKos and PeeAllSee. SoKo is not exactly a poor country either. $810M/yr is not that much given their loving northern neighbors

[Lalmohan]

well if the US wants to retreat back to Guam or hawaii and leave asia to fend for itself, it is entirely within its rights
but then the space is strategically ceded to China
and maybe thats ok - lots of people are telling him that its ok
he just heard that its ok
so it must be ok

[UlanBatori]

Shows why US is alone (except for poodles) and hence has to go for unilateral action:

The UNSC called for a political and diplomatic solution to the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula, the ministry added.
“In this context, the Russian Federation supported a Chinese proposal for a ‘double suspension’ (Pyongyang is to stop missile and nuclear tests and the US and South Korean militaries are to halt drills near North Korea) as a starting point for political negotiations.”
However, the council was not able to agree on a common solution, the ministry added.
The UNSC session was joined by Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Gennady Gatilov, who urged Washington and Seoul to reconsider their decision to station a THAAD anti-missile system on the Korean Peninsula, warning that it will serve as a “destabilizing factor” in the region.
Gatilov said the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) had been deployed “in line with the vicious logic of creating a global missile shield,” while warning that it is also undermining the security and deterrent capacities of adjacent states, such as China, thus threatening “the existing military balance in the region.”
“It is not only we who perceived this step very negatively. We are once again urging both the United States and the Republic of Korea to reconsider its expediency, and other regional states not to yield to the temptation of joining such destabilizing efforts,” the deputy foreign minister said.

Unlike in Syria case, NoKo threatens US directly. Enough reason for pre-emptive PeaceMaker.
BTW, UBCNews has small theory. Is THAAD really distinghuishable from mobile Pershing? (which is 30 years old - there must be a much more compact and even more unstable version now). Seems like latest NoKo test was of a 2-stage Pershing-2 competitor, sent straight up: 71 miles altitude, less than 100 miles lateral because it fell in NoKo territorial waters which suggest a very successful terminal stage. So we suggest that this was in response to what is actually installed as, or protected by, THAAD. Knowing US scale of response, merely moving a few defensive missiles into the center of a target zone is not US style: massive overkill is the well-established style.

[UlanBatori]

Meanwhile, US Frontlyin Al-Lie Candidate to visit WHOTUS.

White House chief of staff Reince Priebus defended President Trump's invitation to Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, saying the meeting is important in the effort to confront North Korea's nuclear program.
“There is nothing right now facing this country and facing the region that is a bigger threat than what’s happening in North Korea,” Priebus told ABC News Chief White House Correspondent Jonathan Karl on “This Week” Sunday.
“If we don’t have all of our folks together — whether they’re good folks, bad folks, people we wish would do better in their country, doesn’t matter, we’ve got to be on the same page” on North Korea, Priebus said.
Karl noted that critics of Duterte say police and vigilantes in his country have killed thousands of people in their war on drugs, while the White House statement on Trump's phone call Saturday with Duterte praised the Filipino government for “fighting very hard to rid its country of drugs.” Asked if the invitation to Duterte signals that human rights "don't matter" in Trump's foreign policy, Priebus said: "It doesn't mean that human rights don't matter, but what it does mean is that the issues facing us developing out of North Korea are so serious that we need cooperation at some level with as many partners in the area as we can get to make sure we have our ducks in a row.” "The president's shown his willingness to stand up for human rights," Priebus added, citing the recent U.S. bombing of a Syrian airport in response to a government chemical attack on civilians as an example of Trump's taking action to defend human rights.

This is what UBCNews Analysis reported, about linkage between NoKo tamasha and SCS tamasha. The former may be US response to the latter - a case of friendly pooch in PeeAllSee kennel being enticed to bark, in order to rationalize larger project to end PeeAllSee SCS antics.

[komal]

His January immigration ban demonstrated Trump's concern for human rights.

[UlanBatori]

Continuing from UBCNews Analysis:

There IS another possibility that also accounts for Zee-Eleven bonhomie. Note that US has totally stopped talking about SCS, which was a big sore point before. Now we hear nothing of it.

Also we see that Duterte is vijiting WHOTUS.
And all sorts of bonhomie between Zee and Eleven.
Why?

That would be explained if this is what happened:
1. Eleven steadily occupies SCS.
2. Zee starts on 2-China Policy. Eleven undies in knot.
3. SCS situation worsens. Japan, Phillippines, Indonesia etc etc all have undies in knot.
4. US sends in Cavalry - EP3s first, then threatens to send carrier group straight through. All sorts of H&D issues.
5. PeeAllSee pulls NoKo puppet chain.
6. Eleven visits Mar Largo.
7. Suddenly, all bonhomie
8. NoKo ampifies.
9. Carrier Group now off Indonesia (why? because of SCS) goes to Australia, by circling Indonesia below, not blundering through SCS. Why?
10. PeeAllSee washes hands of NoKo like Pontius Pilatus.
11. Zee praises Eleven.

I think there is agreement to throw NoKo to the wolves, if US leaves PeeAllSee to take over SCS. Duterte being paid off with some booze, houris and the odd GoldmanSachs account.

I wouldn't want to be in Kim Junior's shoes right now. His hours are numbered - and the knife may well come from the North-Northwest, not from the south-southeast.

[UlanBatori]

And latest: SeeEnnEnn

On Sunday, Mr Trump spoke to the leaders of Thailand and Singapore to discuss the North Korean threat while extending an invitation for both to visit Washington, the White House said.
The telephone calls followed Mr Trump's conversation over the weekend with Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte, which in turn followed conversations with the presidents of China and Japan on the North Korea issue.
"We need cooperation at some level with as many partners in the area as we can get to make sure that we have our ducks in a row," White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus told ABC America's This Week program.
"So if something does happen in North Korea, that we have everyone in line backing up a plan of action that may need to be put together with our partners in the area.
"We have got to be on the same page."