Morbid Rubbernecking: New Korean War?

chola · Post by **chola** » 23 Apr 2017 11:15

Very disappointed. Was prime for some action involving the USN and some yellows (noko and maybe cheen) which is usually a wee bit more exciting (and bloody) than massa going after some beardos in caves.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 23 Apr 2017 17:02

Patience, patience! Remember that it took Al Quolin Bin Powell a full 9 months to start Operation Dejert Shiela.
Now this: US Carrier Group practises hiding behind Japanese Destroyer screen. Look at all the domes on that destroyer: Must have Sony, Panasonic, Onkyo, all competing to provide Surround Sound Dolby Theater.

This is really smart scare tactics. This "drill" was planned years ago, and the WHOTUS merely drew attention to it and "allowed" SeeEnnEnn to spread the panic. No cost at all. But today to me it looks like a clear anti-missile shield for carrier-based air campaign. The NoKo forces near the DMZ are as exposed as the Pakiban on the Shomali Plain, and their submarine bases and nuke facilities are ticking bums.

Also, Japanese destroyer screen added to US destroyers may be a counter to "Chinese BOMBERS on high alert". That was a blatant missile threat to the US carrier group, IMO. All the books I have read on gung-ho WW3 have a phase where hordes of strategic bombers launch missiles at the fleets from way BVR. If 100 are launched, about 10 will get through any defences, which is enough to more or less wipe out a carrier group. That is the PeeAllSee advantage: huge numbers of aircraft and mijjiles to counter the threat of RoundEye Gunboat Diplomacy.

Imagine:
Pakistan threatens to start war.
Mongolia says: We are sending an Army.
Pakistan salwar-browns.
Army was being sent to bring a few bottles of hooch to Ulan Bator.

Long time ago, the yahoos in Sri Lanka went on a rampage, burning a few Hindu priests etc. Polis totally incapable of handling riots.
Someone pointed to INS Nilgiri pulling into Colombo Harbour to get Maasi fish and good coconut arrack for its provisions.
"INDIAN INVASION!!"

Riots stopped as if a switch was thrown.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2017 01:48

Now comes the negotiation...
Why don't they send a former SoS there for Track 3 I wonder.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2017 01:52

Meanwhile, straight from SPECTER ... a floating radar station shaped like... an oil rig.

Gagan · Post by **Gagan** » 24 Apr 2017 18:33

ArjunPandit wrote:
Gagan wrote:"
Are the SoKo soldiers as battle hardened as their singpore cousins? If so, this will not be a very long lasting battle
Singaporeans battle hardened, when? where?

Ah!
They are battle hardened all right...

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2017 18:47

"Training Using GPS App to Find Suitable Bivouac Locations". Like Sir Edmund Hill-ery (He Hu Climbed Hill in Malloostani) conquered Mt. Everest on the shoulders of Tenzing Norgay.

kapilrdave · Post by **kapilrdave** » 24 Apr 2017 19:14

Rather than looking at what US is doing for war preparation to gauge whether the war is happening or not, shouldn't we look at what Japan and SoKo are doing? Afterall, it's *their* war and US is supposed to be just a supporter.

Also, if US is seriously preparing for the war, one would think they would send lot more firepower than merely a one odd CBG. US has always used disproportionate power against their minnow-ish foes. No reason to believe that they would take on NoKo AND potentially China with just one CBG even along with other local allies. A lot is at stake for US if it enters this theatre. It would enter with full force without a doubt.

So, I'm not buying my popcorn and pepsi just yet

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2017 19:19

Asvamedha YAga 2017? Waiting for someone to throw a stone at The Horse? Trumpistani style may be to let Japan and SoKo fend for themselves and take the brunt of NoKo artillery while hitting away from CONUS-based bombers, sub-based cruise missiles and some carrier-based fighters. After air superiority is established, bombers from Guam may start coming in.
Big question is how far PeeAllSee will go if NoKo is attacked. Gen. McArthur found out, but will Gen. Mattis revisit the issue?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Apr 2017 19:37

this sabre rattling serves only one purpose - and that is to keep the public gaze averted from what director comey is doing
the deal with china is about ensuring that no one accidentally starts a real war

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 24 Apr 2017 20:44

If The Horse returns without anyone lobbing a missile or sending a magnetic mine, it is a non-event. Is DT going to say: <<<<<<IF YOU DO THAT ONE MORE TIME, I WILL TELL MY BIG BROTHER! >>>>>>, roll his eyes and return? If NoKo retains mijjiles and nukes after The Horse returns, then the WHOTUS/COTUS look like they are weaker than BO, who at least did not send any carriers. So like Sardarjis meeting in Dilli, it is not possible satisfy H&D and go home without some blood being drawn. What 2 do? This is not India in the middle, agreeing to keep mouths shut. My bet is one NoKo submarine meeting with unfortunate accident, rendering sub-launched IRBM impossible for a year. But without an Ossirak type demolition of nuke facilities, no one is going to feel reassured. Now DHS boss has opened mouth and said that NoKo will develop capability to hit US with ICBM <<<< B4 DT STARTS 2ND TERM>>> which is as good as saying:
War Now! Either that or DHS/TSA comes out with new rule banning nuclear-Armed Baby Strollers inside airline cabins.

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 24 Apr 2017 21:15

UlanBatori wrote:"Training Using GPS App to Find Suitable Bivouac Locations". Like Sir Edmund Hill-ery (He Hu Climbed Hill in Malloostani) conquered Mt. Everest on the shoulders of Tenzing Norgay.

Afaik hillary was a good man and carried his weight. Unlike many other sahibs. He lived in india for 4 years as high commissioner of nz.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 24 Apr 2017 21:18

UlanBatori wrote: Either that or DHS/TSA comes out with new rule banning nuclear-Armed Baby Strollers inside airline cabins.

or you have answered your own question about the sagacity of the beloved orange billi grabber in chief

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 25 Apr 2017 07:18

Next turn of the screw: Boomer sub heads out to NoKo.
What's the point? This is not to threaten NoKo, but their sponsors. Oh wait, it's a cruise missile carrier, not a "boomer" any more.

Armed with tactical missiles and equipped with superior communications capabilities, the Michigan is one of four US Navy subs that began service as a ballistic missile submarine, loaded with nuclear missiles as part of the US strategic nuclear deterrent.
In the 2000s the Navy converted four of the Ohio-class subs into land-attack platforms armed with conventional weapons.
Each of the four submarines can carry up to 154 Tomahawk cruise missiles. They are also outfitted to stealthily deploy up to 66 Navy SEALs or other special operations troops and their equipment.

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 25 Apr 2017 10:27

UlanBatori wrote: This "drill" was planned years ago, and the WHOTUS merely drew attention to it and "allowed" SeeEnnEnn to spread the panic. No cost at all. But today to me it looks like a clear anti-missile shield for carrier-based air campaign.

Unlike other countries US plans every drill with lots of political components. For an onlooker it would seem that it is only another scheduled drill. But there will be activities that happened behind the screens by that time and situation is ripened for confrontation

We also had that moment during operation brasstacks. Same is the case of US carrier passing thru Bay of Bengal during 1971. It would seem innocuous but not so

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2017 10:48

one of these converted ohios unloaded thawks on day1 of the libya adventure to spread piss and democrazy

the result is libya is split into 10 fragments now (isis has its share) and slave markets sell captured black refugees in the streets.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 25 Apr 2017 10:55

BBC was claiming a little while ago NoKo might test a nuke. Trump is frantically calling for UN sanctions if they test further nukes or Missiles.
Standard template.

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 25 Apr 2017 12:03

Noko nukular horse has bolted long ago. Chinese horseman. Likewise Pakisatani missile horse bolted too.

chola · Post by **chola** » 25 Apr 2017 13:19

Singha wrote:one of these converted ohios unloaded thawks on day1 of the libya adventure to spread piss and democrazy

the result is libya is split into 10 fragments now (isis has its share) and slave markets sell captured black refugees in the streets.

Considering that Qaddaffi had blown up an Pam Am airliner, why would the Ohio not take its pound of flesh? What happens afterwards was up to the people of Libya.

Philip · Post by **Philip** » 25 Apr 2017 14:12

Trump's praise for China shows the US's fundamental weakness. India should take a leaf out've China's book. Sell N-weapons tech to a friendly nation ,anti-China,say Vietnam/Taiwan for example, and watch the US kowtow to it to keep the peace! The US only recognises rogue,powerful nations which can wound it. An accelerated plan for our ICBM inventory,both land and sub-launched is required s no. 1 priority.

NoKo is at this moment a besieged nation,threatened with annihilation by the US and its East Asian allies. Remember that the US has never left the Korean peninsula after the Korean War,which technically still exists.

chola · Post by **chola** » 25 Apr 2017 14:44

Philip wrote:Trump's praise for China shows the US's fundamental weakness. India should take a leaf out've China's book. Sell N-weapons tech to a friendly nation ,anti-China,say Vietnam/Taiwan for example, and watch the US kowtow to it to keep the peace! The US only recognises rogue,powerful nations which can wound it. An accelerated plan for our ICBM inventory,both land and sub-launched is required s no. 1 priority.

NoKo is at this moment a besieged nation,threatened with annihilation by the US and its East Asian allies. Remember that the US has never left the Korean peninsula after the Korean War,which technically still exists.

Philip, I have no idea what you are trying to say. You want India to be rogue nation that threatens the US for what? For the same "respect" that the USA gives Cheen? With American military bases all around us and USN ships and aircraft probing a few miles off our coasts?

The problem with Cheen compared to the other rogue nations like Iran and NoKo is that it doesn't operate like a rogue nation 95% of the time. It wouldn't be the world's largest trading nation if it were.

It has a printing press that allows it to invest/bribe insane amounts around the globe and also allows it to make itself economically indispensable to even anti-china states like Japan, SoKo and Vietnam and Taiwan. To have them accept our nukes, we'll need to give the same economic access and benefits that Cheen gives them. And we can't even give enough access to Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh to keep those insects dependent on our orbit.

In the end, it all comes down to moolah.

A_Gupta · Post by **A_Gupta** » 25 Apr 2017 16:40

The point is that China uses its utterly dependent client state North Korea to provoke a crisis whenever the potential of the US turning the screws on trade goes up. The US needs China to defuse the crisis, and so yields on trade.

And China is building up a second client state in Pakistan.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 25 Apr 2017 17:49

chola wrote: Considering that Qaddaffi had blown up an Pam Am airliner,

yes this is a strange one. the americans said he did, yet every non-US investigating agency said it was Assad senior's boys. Gaddafi for reasons best known to himself took the credit

the ways of allah are mysterious only...

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 25 Apr 2017 22:18

Noko carried out one of its feared artillery drills on coast today afternoon, using 400 pieces.
You have seen a older video...hellacious amt of mlrs and sp koksan howitzers

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2017 00:40

I think by now every one of NoKo's Feared Artillery pieces has a present dedicated to it. My guess is 5 mins max life expectancy.

Trump's praise for China shows the

With all respect, Phillipji, ask yourself: Would YOU wish to be a recipient of Trump's "Praise" based on recent performance? Having pondered the answer to that, pls ask what it implies for US-PRC relations.

I think it is a dance of world-class liars. 11 Praises US, Trump Praises 11. Both look for best place to plant the knife. I too have learned from hard Mongolian experience that it is no deal to try to deal honestly with the PeeAllSee and its experts, as BO etc might have tried to do (I doubt it: actually US has been cheating NoKo quite nicely for decades). Smile, praise, compliment, all the time holding back your nausea. Plan your real actions elsewhere and HOPE that you Do Unto Them Before They Do Unto You.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Apr 2017 00:52

NoKo and Libya perform an useful function in geopolitics
their total destruction helps no one

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2017 00:55

Lalmohan wrote:NoKo and Libya perform an useful function in geopolitics
their total destruction helps no one

Please explain for all.

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Apr 2017 00:58

pls see my earlier comment about gaddafi taking credit for assad's actions (so much for global baathist revolution)

noko likewise is a useful pawn for china to threaten others by proxy
and the us to rattle sabres at without having to actually start a real war

gadaffi was always useful to bomb so that the US could be seen to be doing something against the goddamn a-rabs

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2017 01:09

Trump lays it out for UNSC.

chastised the UN Security Council for underperforming and called on it to “impose additional and stronger sanctions” on North Korea during a meeting with UNSC ambassadors at the White House. "The status quo in North Korea is also unacceptable, and the council must be prepared to impose additional and stronger sanctions on the North Korean nuclear and ballistic missile programs,” Trump said during the luncheon.
"This is a real threat to the world, whether we want to talk about it or not. North Korea is a big world problem and it's a problem that we have to finally solve," he said. “People put blindfolds on for decades and now it’s time to solve the problem.”

In saying all that, the zee has painted himself into a corner from where the only escape is via military action - or UN inspectors removing NoKo nukes, mijjiles and fijjile material. Since I don't see 11 agreeing to the latter, unilateral US military action becomes the only option left. Trump can say that he tried all he could to get the UN to act - like IG going around the world before ordering the liberation of BD. Once the military option is approved, quicker is better than waiting longer, hain?

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Apr 2017 01:20

or china will come and save the day
which will result in a major loss of influence for the US in the pacific rim

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 26 Apr 2017 01:37

UB, I once tweeted to zee that Politics is not business.

There are wheels within wheels. I didn't say this part.

Rudradev · Post by **Rudradev** » 26 Apr 2017 03:10

Lalmohan wrote:pls see my earlier comment about gaddafi taking credit for assad's actions (so much for global baathist revolution)

noko likewise is a useful pawn for china to threaten others by proxy
and the us to rattle sabres at without having to actually start a real war

gadaffi was always useful to bomb so that the US could be seen to be doing something against the goddamn a-rabs

There is another side to this.

Bombing Qaddafi with F111s (Reagan) was one class of US response. Type 1.

Invading a country and toppling its regime as with Saddam...or consistently, aggressively propping up an entity like ISIS to topple its regime while suffocating the same regime with sanctions, etc. is another class of US response. Type 2.

Type 1 response has the advantage of giving political props to the targeted regime. Qaddafi cried and wailed that one of his grandchildren (?) had been killed in the Reagan-ordered bombing. True or not, who knows. But it made him an even bigger herrow to his people and to Soviet-bloc sympathizers internationally. Reagan meanwhile got to look tough on national security. There is a kind of win-win in Type 1 operations.

Type 2 response happened to Qaddafi at the behest of Hillary Clinton/Huma Abedin in concert with France, UK and others. Raped with a bayonet and country sliced up into mini caliphates.

So far Trump's response to Syria has been Type 1.

With NoKo the game has been to keep the Kim regime and his PRC sponsors guessing. What is coming? Type 1 or Type 2?

NoKo's bluff has always been... even if Type 0.5 response comes, we will unleash all hell upon Tokyo and Seoul. Now the Dear Leader doesn't know which way to posture. If a Type 1 response comes, should he react with an artillery barrage against Seoul, or perhaps with nukes? Is that the best choice for him? If he plays that card in response to Type 1, then the US might escalate to Type 2. The nuclear deterrent is meant to stave off a Type 2 response... but Dear Leader has threatened to use it even in retaliation for Type 0.5!!

NOT responding to a Type 1 US attack could bring benefits by making Dear Leader more beloved in the eyes of his people (as with Qaddafi in 1983), and may even win him some sympathy from SoKo. It would also bring diplomatic benefits to PRC, who would be viewed as having managed the situation in statesman-like fashion in the interest of international stability. BUT it would also call into question ANY of Dear Leader's future threats... including the threat to use nukes, and hence undermine the value of NoKo's nuclear deterrent.

Interesting game, this brinkmanship.

UlanBatori · Post by **UlanBatori** » 26 Apr 2017 05:10

Typical American response is a planned, massive hit that "does the job". "No comebacks". So I would expect something that draws down the inventory of SLCMs, ALCMs, HARMs, anti-artillery missiles, JDAMs, 2000-pounders, 250-pounders, 500-pounders, and spare parts for F-18s, V-22s, AEGIS etc.
The one sub carries "up to 66 SOF", enuf said. Plus some 150+ cruise missiles.

ANY action by the US is going to bring on loud

from UNGA, UNSC, etc etc. So there is no difference between an isolated 2-aircraft intercept mission, and a week-long fireworks display that leaves 90% of NoKo military installations smoking and the DMZ open to a SoKo walkover. Except SoKo will not walk over, for fear of Yalu repeat. It will be Hyoomaneateran missions.

ramana: I read what you wrote but I don't see an exit strategy without expending significant ammo. NoKo may swear solemnly -on the head of the Roundeye Evil American President - to give up nukes, NBC, missiles and artillery and become peaceful farmers, but for how long? They have so far operated on an exact POTUS election cycle as pointed out long ago in infamous PeeAref SRR paper - and by many others since.

hnair · Post by **hnair** » 26 Apr 2017 09:52

One suspects the whole THAAD "routine" deployment routine is but Khan's version of Cold Start. Being ready and waiting, instead of a longish buildup like the past Gelfaaars

Singha wrote:Noko carried out one of its feared artillery drills on coast today afternoon, using 400 pieces.
You have seen a older video...hellacious amt of mlrs and sp koksan howitzers

The older video was kind of interesting. The artillery barrels were shuddering all over the place, instead of the orderly, single axis recoil movement of a Dhanush/Bofors 155 or the MH777s. The general wisdom here that "even if one out of a 100 rounds, lands, it is a win", might not work for a full-spectrum dominant entity like khan, who will have all sorts of counter-battery "options" on hair-trigger alert. What might work is sneaky SDRE stuff, but I digress.

I suspect "phyjjicks packages" are being dusted from PANTEX shelves and maalished to its original mirror finishes. Will not be a good scene to watch, if Kimmy decides to launch a largish rocket and Shree Trump decides to honk "La cucracha".

For me, the biggest gain is watching that NoKo Newsreadaar Auntyjee. Her fake-Os when reading a mijjile launch is what every General 'Buck' Turgidson would want in a crisis

Lalmohan · Post by **Lalmohan** » 26 Apr 2017 13:09

the issue is that much of SoKo army's wives and children live within range of that artillery barrage

kmkraoind · Post by **kmkraoind** » 26 Apr 2017 13:46

Sam Kim @samkimasia
North Korea's answer to US aircraft carrier: Lots and lots of artillery neatly assembled on a beach bloomberg.com/politics/artic…

Manish_P · Post by **Manish_P** » 26 Apr 2017 14:57

^ Nice juicy target for cruise missiles (i suppose MOAB or tactical nukes would be an overkill)

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Apr 2017 15:00

Does NoKo think that khan will show up with wooden ships armed with cannons as in 19th century?

Singha · Post by **Singha** » 26 Apr 2017 15:17

That was for yesterdays firing drill. They would disperse thereafter.

Austin · Post by **Austin** » 26 Apr 2017 15:29

Looking at the Nuclear Test Conducted by North , Total 5 of them

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_n ... orth_Korea

They have tested yeald ranging from Sub Kiloton 0.2 to 30 kt , This is good enough of range and test they have to build Nuclear Weapon for Sub Tactical to Strategic Needs , Now the only question is numbers and amount of fissile material they have.

See no reason they would need to do more test other then to give Trump some goose bumps.

Karthik S · Post by **Karthik S** » 26 Apr 2017 15:38

Looks like if deployed, Taepodong-2 and KN-14 missiles can reach west coast.