Morbid Rubbernecking: New Korean War?

[UlanBatori]

Don't want to clutter up the India-So-NoKorea thread, but there is a highly possible train wreck developing, IMO, in the next few days.
US carrier group carrying some 6000 humans besides a whole lot of presents for delivery, is heading for Sea of Japan. NoKo is preparing for what might be a thermonuclear weapon ground test. Maybe another ballistic missile launch. China is rumored to have sent 150,000 troops to the NoKo border.

The US carrier group is under the command and "control" ( a loose term) of POTUS DT and his merry band in the NSC, led by "Vadhera" Kushner, with WHOTUS' Diplomatic Statements emanating from no less than OberSturmFuhrer/ Loose Cannon Herr Spicer. The COTUS, that fine body of eminent statespeople elected By The People of The USA, in their deep deliberations, show all the calm judicial sense of a classic lynch mob. War hysteria is being whipped up with glee by the US Mainstream Media, amplified and deliciously fed with expertly cooked "Evidence" straight from the kitchens of Langley and Quantico. As the Carpenters crooned:

Its Yesterday Once More....

Not that we can do diddly other than watch and yak. So let's!

1. I do not see how that carrier group can turn back peacefully with NoKo having let off a thermonuke or ballistic missile right before their "eyes". Return to "status quo ante" etc. would give too much radioactive ammunition to CNN and POTUS' internal enemies.

SCENARIO A: NoKO does nothing: US carrier group stuck in S-o-J


2. If NoKo simply sits back and waits, the carrier group will look increasingly silly, but I suspect that DC media will lose interest swiftly. Trust DT&Co to create some other diversion for the well-known attention span of Americans. So one huge possible outcome is defeat for the US by NOTHING HAPPENING. Ultimately the carrier group will slink away, Dear Fat Leader will celebrate and feed a few more relatives to dogs.

SCENARIO B: NoKO launches massive artillery barrage as threatened:

3. People here talk of the horrible power of the NoKo DMZ-based artillery and its effect on Seoul-lessness. Maybe that is the bluff that DT has decided to call. If NoKo starts an artillery barrage, the 75 planes and 200 SLCMs on the carrier group will certainly launch a decapitation strike on Pyongyang. SoKo's military is not exactly powerless, they will hammer the NoKo artillery with massive suppression fire.

4. SoKo/US will probably establish air superiority within the first 5 minutes (already a VERY long time for Seoul!) followed by a real hammering. But this would enable airborne landings across the DMZ by near-suicide SoKo paratroopers. First they will saturate NoKo with news of the decapitation strike, removing the regime in Pyongyang. IMO this is SoKo's best hope for survival.

5. Once that "artillery" bluff is called, NoKo will collapse (why do I sound like MacArthur's advisors?) But PeeAllSee will intervene with "humanitarian aid" and "peacekeeping forces". This is where I fear that DT's carrier group does not have nearly enough strength.

6. The Red Line IMO is US forces actually OCCUPYING Pyongyang. Instead what if SoKo forces do the honors with US planes overhead? I doubt that PeeAllSee wants another Yalu/Chosin situation with 700,000 dead.

SCENARIO C: US launches limited pre-emptive attack on NoKo Ballistic Missile launch facilities, nuclear reactors and test site.
7. Conventional wisdom says that this will trigger the NoKo artillery barrage (B). What if it does not?
8. DT feted along with the Admiral of the Carrier Group in Ticker Tape Parade in New York.
9. NoKo will set off another nuke test using next bum donated by PeeAllSee, once the carrier group leaves.

10. Another carrier group heads that way. Repeat from Step 1.
SCENARIO D: US launches decapitation strike on NoKo REGIME. Diyar Fat Leader's whereabout unknown, but 80% of his uniformed relatives are shaheed.

11. China launches Strong Protest.
12. Taiwan suffers mysterious spate of assassinations.
13. New Taiwan regime mysteriously fails to detect that 250,000 of the 300,000 happy, fit-looking tourists who landed in the 3 weeks prior, are now standing at all main street corners and in front of govt. buildings while the other 50,000 are IN those buildings.
14. Yemeni Houthis seen to possess missiles that have PeeAllSee markings; suddenly appear INSIDE Saudi cities as happened in Seoul and Saigon many years ago. KSA in no shape to wage war anywhere.
15. Iran sets off a nuclear blast; Russia gently warns Israel/US against any attack.

16. Back to Step 1 with Iran replacing NoKo, Israel replacing SoKo.

SCENARIO E: Now it gets REALLY scary. NoKo achieves surprise attack on US carrier group. One destroyer sunk, two more in flames, carrier hit and listing. Casualties are in the thousands.
17. NoKo, whatever else, are innovative, and technologically (for military thingies) far ahead of say, Pakis, ISIS etc. Every day for the past 68 years they have dreamt of hitting a US carrier group. Now one is right in their faces. Is it too far-fetched that they have suicidal plans for such things? Everyone there knows of a grandfather/grandmother/uncle/aunt who burned to death from a US weapon strike, or starved to death, or was tortured to death (Google pictures of Korean war, where the "UN" occupied NoKo b4 the Yalu/Chosin pleasantries). So I believe that deep hate can be incited, and the regime is good at doing that.
I have no idea how they might accomplish that, but stranger things have happened when grand Armadas approached places with obviously destructive intent.

The Assyrian came down like the Wolf on the fold..
His cohorts were gleaming in purple and gold..

etc.
The Russian Fleet in the Sea of Japan.. The Spanish Armada off England..
Desperate people can do pretty powerful things.
18. I can't speculate how things will spin from there. The US tends not to sit back and nurse its wounds, if such an attack occurs.
SCENARIO F: Instead of an artillery barrage, NoKo actually invades by land, sea and air, towards SoKo
19. I think that will be a massacre and SoKo will be able to stop and reverse the invasion.
SCENARIO G: Chinese forces "invade" and "take over" NoKo nuke and missile facilities
20. The US will have to step back and declare victory, knowing that it is actually total defeat: The weapons and nuke facilities were Chinese to begin with. DT will have been check-mated.

21. SoKo's last hope of reunification on favorable terms, evaporates. Now the fear is that SoKo will also be "assimilated" like Tibet. And this time the US troops there do not provide any credible deterrent.
So... guess what the UBCN prediction is..

[Lilo]

Two koreas uniting into a independent strong Korea should be a desired scenario for India.

Hope for below two longterm outcomes
>If the current set of events greatly compress the time-frame for unification.
>If China is forced to permanently concentrate men & material towards the korean peninsula.

China-Paki pincer on India backed up against a massa anvil will have that much less chance of happening.

[UlanBatori]

LATimes is ahead of UBCN in calling it a developing train-wreck, but ignores several interesting Scenarios

North Korea has indicated that it will do something to mark the 105th anniversary on Saturday of the birth of the modern country’s founder, Kim Il Sung. Although Kim Jong Un in his new year’s address warned that the country might test an intercontinental ballistic missile, military analysts believe that it isn’t ready for testing.
But North Korea could test another short- or medium-range missile, a common enough occurrence, or a nuclear weapon. Satellite intelligence suggests that a nuclear test could be in the works. ..The Trump administration has been signaling that this time it will respond forcefully to another North Korean nuclear test. Officials have disparaged the Obama administration’s policy toward North Korea...

Robert Gallucci, a professor at Georgetown University who was with the Clinton administration in 1994 when it considered striking North Korea, said the U.S. would have to spend months preparing its allies to defend themselves and their civilian populations before taking what in military parlance is called “kinetic action.”

The only nation in "modern" times that was "ready for war" was the Third Reich.

[Shivaji]

In my opinion, it will be scenario C. Neither DT nor SoKo nor even PRC seem to be interested in escalating things at this moment.

DT is just in office and is still to come to terms with presidency roles and responsibilities. His Syria strike, MOAB in Afghanistan seem to be more of showing intent and give a message to the world to take him seriously rather than with any specific goal. Possible strike or even intention of it on NoKo may be to call NoKo bluff, check to what extent or if Chinis get directly involved at all. DT has suggested that SoKo / Japan / Nato allies shall cough-up more for military support that US provides. If SoKo chickens out and suggests status-quo, this will be an excuse for DT to extract more from SoKo.

SoKo with impeachment of president, deep recession would not want to get embroiled into this now. Status quo best suits them at the moment. They will loose in all the sceanrios.

Any escalation here would be end of peaceful rise for PRC. Not sure if they think time for paradigm change has arrived. Most likely not.

Most likely, NoKo will postpone test calling bluff of NoKo as irrational entity. This will be considered as victory by DT as it is all about showing intent. NoKo will test the moment carrier group leaves Sea of Japan.

Even if few shots are fired by Carrier group, NoKo will respond with target being carrier group rather than SoKo or US mainland. Carrier group will fire few missiles in return and it will stop there with diplomatic means considered to de-escalate.

With company HQ in Seoul, impacts me at individual level as well!

[UlanBatori]

I had forgotten about SoKo harakiri in progress. If NoKo is as crazy as claimed, it may be seen as unique moment of SoKo weakness, and the actual purpose of the carrier group may be to bolster SoKo temporarily until they have a functioning govt. DT actions may be to warn NoKo against any opportunistic bright ideas, nothing at all to do with testing.

But I do think the carrier group will look foolish if a missile test occurs. So they may be under orders to shoot down any Ballistic Missile lifting off from NoKo. Don't know if carrier-borne aircraft can do boost-phase intercept, or if that requires a B747/ C-5 type aircraft.

As for nuke test, as shivaji points out, most rational course is the PeeAllSee to "Use their Good Offices" and persuade NoKo to "call it off". For now. Win-win and back-slapping/ DC-Chini Bhai-Bhai etc. Tough POTUS Forces NoKo 2 Back Off. Don't Mess With POTUS etc. No real change to anything.

[r_subra]

NoKo has played its cards to get US attention aka Carl Vinson in its vicinity. NoKo wants to play US against China for regime survival. Conducting a nuclear / missile test at this time will force US to respond with missile strikes and China may send "peacekeeping" troops to prevent regime collapse. Most likely, NoKo will offer temporary halt to their missile/nuclear testing to prevent air strikes & get sanctions relief. DT can declare victory in about 2 months & the carrier strike group can go on its merry way. US air strikes w/o provocation could justify NoKo retaliation against Soko or Japan.

[UlanBatori]

Question is whether just postponing a test would assuage US/DT H&D. I suspect not. There is no cost for the DC media to howl, since there is no fear of the war in the US (except for relatives of the troops stationed in SoKo/Japan and the ones on board the ships).

But the rest depends on the regime's fatalistic attitude. If they are willing to take the whole country down with them, there is a problem. The Hitler regime knew that they were all in for the "high jump" if Germany surrendered, so they ordered the armies at Stalingrad, and all the way back to Berlin, to fight to the death, thereby destroying the whole country. In Japan OTOH, the Emperor must have got some deal that he would not be hanged in 1945 - this is because US projections of the cost of invading Japan, looked very ominous. Saddam's forces were never asked whether they were willing to surrender, they were just isolated and smashed.

If NoKo leadership is allowed safe passage to PRC, regime change may be possible with minimal bloodshed. But there may be a whole Leader Class that will face citizen retribution.

My take is that DT will demand regime change. Without that there is no "solution". Maybe he reasons that North Koreans will vote with their tummies, to accept US aid and merge with SoKo.

Then again, PRC can see that danger too, so they may do all that is possible, to prevent a NoKo surrender. Which means, no asylum for Dear Son. Which brings us back to the question of how fatalistic is the regime? Faced with certain national suicide, will his jarnails carry out orders to attack the US/SoKo/Japan?

[komal]

The plan is the same on used in Iraq in 2003. Offer billions of dollars to NoKo Colonels and Generals and get them to surrender and turn off any nuclear devices. For Bush/Trump, the $ is their Almighty and they assume everyone thinks the same way.

Alas, NoKo has long been the North Asian TSP -- a PRC satrapy to force Japan, SoKo, Taiwan, etc. to spend hundreds of billions of dollars to protect themselves against a threat.

No terrorist attack on Indian soil from TSP will take place if PRC says NO. No nuke tests will take place in NoKo if PRC says NO.

PRC is not going to let a few billion dollars in bribes destroy one of their key assets.

[UlanBatori]

Very unusual for PRC FM to make such a statement
Asian markets are significantly down.
But as usual, PRC is blaming it all on US. Obviously, PRC could solve the whole problem by kindly volunteering to take over the weapons and nuke facilities, in exchange for massive aid and trade concessions ("to help get NoKo back on its feet"). But will DT go for this blackmail solution? It is reversible, and this is the Presidential Stupidity cycle that PRC and NoKo have played on US presidents for the past 20 years at least.

DT has to call this bluff to really win.

[UlanBatori]

Meanwhile, "chalta hai" in SoKo

"Black Day" in South Korea is a day for singles, marked by eating "jajangmyeon," a noodle dish topped with a thick sauce made of black beans. It's celebrated by singles as a response to "White Day," an Asian Valentine's Day which falls a month earlier, on March 14.
...there was little sign of concern in South Korea's capital, Seoul, which lies within range of the North's artillery.
"Outside South Korea, some people are worried, but we don't feel like that in our daily lives," said Choi Na-young, an office worker in central Seoul. "All I can do is just try my best and work hard," said Choi, as she queued for noodles with colleagues. "So no matter what the outside world thinks, I came here to enjoy Black Day". "Black Day" was trending on Twitter and was the leading news item on the Naver web portal in South Korea..

Meanwhile across the sea..

South Korean Newspaper Headline

cosmetic product manufacturer in the city of Chungju. He said the company introduced a four-day week in 2010, which had resulted in a 20 percent increase in sales and more than doubled the number of employees."I will create 500,000 jobs by reducing the legal working hours to 52 hours a week," Moon said. "Thirteen years ago when five days a week practice was suggested, conglomerates and conservative media bucked the idea, saying it would ruin the economy. "But despite 500 yearly working hours reduced with the idea in place, our economy improved and people saw better lives." He was not blinded by the four-days-a-week idea but was convinced he could reduce legal working hours by some definite number. Many Koreans would welcome four days a week, but also question whether it is feasible. They like the idea because it promises more freedom outside the office such as "a day with quality evening life" which many workers would like.

[rsingh]

NoKo has played its cards to get US attention aka Carl Vinson in its vicinity. NoKo wants to play US against China for regime survival. Conducting a nuclear / missile test at this time will force US to respond with missile strikes and China may send "peacekeeping" troops to prevent regime collapse. Most likely, NoKo will offer temporary halt to their missile/nuclear testing to prevent air strikes & get sanctions relief. DT can declare victory in about 2 months & the carrier strike group can go on its merry way. US air strikes w/o provocation could justify NoKo retaliation against Soko or Japan.

That is quite absurd assumption given that NoKo is developing ICBM in months without any research and development facility. These toys are Chinese toys. It is China who is calling shot.

[shiv]

Kim Ding Dong will make preparations for a test. Those nuke sites will be taken out. China will blow hot and cold. And then bijnech aj ujual

[ShauryaT]

Two koreas uniting into a independent strong Korea should be a desired scenario for India.

Be careful over the long term, a unified Korea could well be PRC ally. Korea and China are civilizational cousins. Another thing is China will intervene and NOT allow unification with US forces/bases in a unified S.Korea. China will make exit of US a pre-condition to any such unification. S.Korea may bite.

[Mort Walker]

I'm hoping for Scenario B, C, or D. Then I wish for IA and IAF to take back Aksai Chin and PoK.

[Marten]

China has the most to gain from destruction of manufacturing strengths of SoKo. NoKo DingDongKim has been Saber rattling precisely for this reason. The US only loses in every scenario except where it can stop China from entering NoKo, which is near impossible.

[Subdas]

Chinese military might is no better than that of the Republican Guards of Saddam regime. Lots of pomp and show but no hard experience to prove. The Chinese army has no experience in battle for a long time. That is why they are already bringing out the peace flag by saying that nobody is a winner in war . They were beaten by the Vitenamese recently

[UlanBatori]

I agree that a united SoKo will be a formidable competitor to Japan. Technology level comparable to Japan's with much hungrier people, esp. if north is integrated. Japan may slide in short order to the level of a Oiropean Hasbeenistan. So they will **NOT** wish for Korean reunification. Which means, they want NoKo to remain a viable, mijjile-rattling pest that keeps US paying $$$ for bases and access.

But few of these considerations are likely to operate in the Zee's War Room if there is an incident - like a missile launch. I don't really know what they will do if there is a fusion test. As someone pointed out, there really aren't any huge development labs and reactors to "take out".

Then again, a nuke test is so much more fissile material used up rather than weaponized. It leaves China with less cover for "how did the nokos get so many nukes? They ain't got enuf glowing stuff for so many". So the US interest ***MAY** be in encouraging as many nuke tests as possible. Look for a report dissing DingDong, saying that the test fizzled. That's what I would do. Keep dissing until they use up all their glowing stuff. THEN take out their reactors.

[Gagan]

NoKo being taken out will be an important template to deal with for all harami nations around the world.

This little pipsqueak of a country with its pocket sized dick-tator with serious size issues, and N power needs to be slapped around and the poor population liberated.

Hope Pres Trump goes the full hog and finally finally puts this north korean nonsense to its desired end. It has taken a long time coming, hope finally someone is doing something about this !!!

[Gagan]

Japan will be worried about Korean being a competitor hain ji?

Why, have they finished worrying about Goondagardi and economic competition from China, or the N weapons threat from NoKo hain ji?

Why are the Japanese giving out hints of going Nuclear? It is because of China and NoKo.

Now there is a very good chance that the United Korea will turn inwards for atleast a decade while it sorts out its re-unification pangs, and fights off Chinese vs Amreeka vs Japan fight for control and influence and rebuilding contracts.

[Singha]

A land invasion of noko with mechanised forces will not be easy
They have a grand total of 700km of paved roads and 24000km unpaved. Lots of mountains with fanatical kim fidayeen armed with staves and sickles

[ShauryaT]

NoKo being taken out will be an important template to deal with for all harami nations around the world.

This little pipsqueak of a country with its pocket sized dick-tator with serious size issues, and N power needs to be slapped around and the poor population liberated.

Hope Pres Trump goes the full hog and finally finally puts this north korean nonsense to its desired end. It has taken a long time coming, hope finally someone is doing something about this !!!

I am willing to bet Trump will do no such thing. Let me add to this.


Over 2+ decades of US policy on N. Korea is largely stuck for good reason. This reason has to do with with China. This is the only part Trump has gotten right. The ONLY way for Trump to do something is IF China allows them to. So, what is the quid pro quo, Trump can offer to China.

[UlanBatori]

As long as "foreign" boots are not on the ground, there is a good chance that the "invasion" can be mostly food trucks. The locals may also be keen to get jobs hunting the "fidayeen" based on accumulated love for the Regime.
OTOH, I am not sure I buy that narrative. You don't hear of a lot of Boat People coming out of NoKo, despite their being harder-working and technologically more knowledgeable than, say, Cubans or Syrians. Plus a long coastline. So people may be quite convinced that their poverty is because of the Evil Capitarist Empires always waging war on them. With Dear Leader, DingDong and the military heroically saving them from the lound-eye lapists. SoKo people will have a tough time initially, deubunking that narrative if indeed it is untrue.

[UlanBatori]

If Trump & Co are willing to risk it, smashing NoKo while SIMULTANEOUSLY protecting Taiwan and keeping Iran from testing, would really cut the PeeAllSee to size. Wee Dong would have MAJOR loss of face. But of course I am not sure the US can handle all that.

[ShauryaT]

^It is the "black" economy or the smuggling economy with PRC that substitutes the goodies of evil capitalists. Most of the crossings is over the China border. It is also true the Confuscians have a greater belief in authority than most societies.

[UlanBatori]

Loundeye Lussians' help sought: What happened when Lussians needed Veto I wonder...

Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi made the appeal in a phone conversation with Sergey Lavrov, his Russian counterpart, after telling reporters that conflict could break out “at any moment”.
A statement on China's Foreign Ministry website said Mr Wang told the Russian diplomat: "China is ready to coordinate closely with Russia to help cool down as soon as possible the situation on the peninsula and encourage the parties concerned to resume dialogue.” {IOW, stay in expensive Beijing hotels more, wasting time}
The comments were in relation to the six-party talks, exchanges which centred on concerns over North Korea’s weapons program which were launched in 2003 but stalled in 2009 when North Korea walked out.
South Korea, Japan Russia, China and the US were the other countries involved.

[UlanBatori]

The Six-Party Talks are big on PeeAllSee H&D: they are the Convenors, and loundeyes look to them as the Problem Solvers. Whereas they are the puppeteers.

[komal]

NoKo Missle Test Fails

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/ ... im-jong-un

PRC probably had some wires pulled

[UlanBatori]

Boost-Phase Intercept, or Sabotage?

NoKo mijjile blew up "almost immediately". A laser cutting into the fuel tanks can have that effect, no doubt.

Sinpo is North Korea's submarine port and the failed missile was likely a submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM).
"SLBMs are more threatening than any other type of missile of the same range because it can evade radar detection, including the THAAD," Shin said, referring to the Terminal High Altitude Area Defense anti-missile system provided to South Korea by the U.S. "If North Korea [can] complete building 3,000-ton submarine, they can then attack Guam, Hawaii and even Alaska with an SLBM."

Vice President Mike Pence was en route with his wife and two daughters to Seoul, South Korea, Tuesday night for meetings with U.S. and South Korean troops and acting President Hwang Kyo-ahn. Pence's schedule was not expected to be altered, a senior White House officials said.

What a sweet boss!

"Hi Mike! Why don't u take a few days off, take the wife&kids to this place where the artillery is expected hit right about the time u check into ur hotel? Be sure to give us a phone briefing on the intensity of the barrage, now. "

[UlanBatori]

Israel Breaking
(@IsraelBreaking)
BREAKING: President Trumps "closest militarty advisors" tell Britain US may launch pre-emptive strike on North Korea. - The Times

I think the US just did. The mijjile was hit on liftoff. Maybe the nuke test site is next.
Nah! Per FoxNews:

A U.S. military official told the AP the U.S. doesn't intend to use military force against North Korea in response to either a nuclear test or a missile launch.

[Singha]

https://mobile.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/w ... gle.co.in/

Confirms ulan claim that some post liftoff targeting like cyber laser etc is being attempted

[UlanBatori]

All it takes is for some EnnEssAy to detect and reproduce the signal that says: "SOOSAI!!" to the Big Dong to make it No Dong. That is a wireless signal, with excellent signal to noise ratio, so fundamentally detectable and reproduceable. Now noko will launch without the option of self-destruct, and some kind entity can reprogram it onto downtown Pyongyang - Leader Palace.

My guess is they will go ahead with nuke test as backup.

[darshhan]

Yep. It looks like more and more like a boost phase intercept( although a non kinetic one probably. Like cyber or electronic warfare).

[UlanBatori]

If this was cyber stuff (they broke the launch abort code and sent it to the missile on launch) several dog-feeding events are likely in NoKo in the short term. It basically negates their testing capability unless they use something much more "secure" but much less technically reliable for launch abort. I assume that production versions of IRBMs don't have abort capability?

[Singha]

Special elint subs, rc135, ep3 or uuv must have gathered these details from previous flights

[UlanBatori]

This scenario gives DT a clear win:

u try testing, v will inflate ur mijjile and no one will ever know that it is not your lousy, non-exportable product quality. V probably found out ur codes **NOT** from ur scientists who are now dog-meat, but from ur closest relatives and jarnails hu r in our pay. Sleep well tonight!

So Tarrel Fliend Wee Dong and No Dong will be pretty unhappy, along with most of DupleeCity and large parts of certain threads.

[Singha]

Iran took over and soft landed a highly classified drone or jammed its link such that it ran out of fuel and crashed mostly intact.

To me it opens all kinds of questions about nirbhay failures...induced failure need not be self destruct code but more subtle like introducing nav errors, control system errors which easily be blamed on engg or qc failures.

[nam]

The Chinese will probably throw the NK under the Trump bus in return for Trump going soft on the Pakis. Just like Russian made the Syrian do away Chem weapons, Chinese do the same with NK. A drama of giving away nukes. NK regime survives and everyone is happy.

Trump in return lets Pakis run the usual show, with we being the idiot in the crowd and providing "sacrifices" for world peace. Pakis get the billion dollars aid, free weapons etc and we get access to full paid American arms and a F16 factory.

We need to openly support removal of NK regime. Send message to South Korean & Japan how they understand nuclear blackmail.

[UlanBatori]

IOW, argue for United Korea. Historic Aspirations of The Heroic Korean (and Tibetan and Mongolian) People etc, along with Korea- Japan Friendship. Take the MOHAWG. I agree.

[Ravi Karumanchiri]

It seems to me, the most likely impending military scenario on the Korean peninsula is one that begins when a US naval vessel strikes a naval mine, or is struck by a torpedo.

Then the rush will be on to determine the attacker, and everyone will wonder if the attribution of blame is correct.

The 2010 sinking of the ROKS Cheonan is a very telling incident. Read-up on the Wiki here... https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ROKS_Cheonan_sinking


There are more than a few parties who would enjoy a costly and damaging conflagration erupting between the Koreas and the Americans, most notably the Chinese, or perhaps someone else in the neighbourhood (or beyond) who thinks they can profit by sparking a war they intend to stay out of themselves.

[UlanBatori]

I can think of a few who would not mind seeing SoKo, Japan, Southeast China, all "Palmyrized" with immense opportunities for Reconstruction contracts. A war that will probably end with a US withdrawal after an initial Declaration of Victory, then a grinding attrition leading to massive despair and protests in the US. Some of these people are probably in the US onlee.

The sinking of Cheonan did not lead to war. Nor did the capture of the USS Pueblo. But as you say, a warship hitting a mine or an anti-ship mijjile like the USS Stark, might be a different problem.