North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

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Austin
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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Sep 2017 22:21

Is there any evidence to show Pak nuclear design has to do with noko design ? From what I read Pak design is one of proven China design tested in 80, something even the CIA got hold off and challenged benazir when she was PM

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Sep 2017 22:23

ramdas wrote:@sudeepj: It seems R Chidambaram managed to goof up the TN test despite having the materials with him. This worthy still stays on as PSA to the PM past the age of 80 years giving platitudes like the adequacy of computer simulations for deterrence.


Not the right thread but decision not to test was a political decision as more scientific data came , ABV didn't want to take further risk then what he did

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 03 Sep 2017 22:27

Not blaming ABV for not testing then. It is 13 years since ABV left. High time testing resumed give NoKo developments: NoKo has since outstripped us in warhead capability. It is better we wake up and smell the coffee.

Regarding Pak and NoKo: the sensible thing is to assume the worst. It is the paranoid who prevail in this game of accumulating national power.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 03 Sep 2017 22:37

ramdas wrote:@sudeepj: It seems R Chidambaram managed to goof up the TN test despite having the materials with him. This worthy still stays on as PSA to the PM past the age of 80 years giving platitudes like the adequacy of computer simulations for deterrence.


lets be more respectful towards our scientists.. ok? Read what I said carefully.. A 2MT bomb weighing 1 to 1.5 tonnes is easily achievable given some basic competence and the special materials. What they tried was a very advanced and optimized design, which imho, did not work as expected (disputed). Achieving a more compact, lightweight design is still a challenge! in the pic of NK nuke above, you will see that its not MIRVable, and is several times the size of the published pictures of the W88 or W78 even.

Indian weaponeers are not fools, every missile we tested after pok2, had a throw weight of 1.5 tonnes+, while earlier it was only 500kgs to 1 tonne. You can figure out the weapon our deterrence is based on.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Sep 2017 22:45

Trump is calling for complete trade sanction for any nation that does trade with Noko , considering China does 90% of trade with noko will trump stop trade with China or confiscate 1 trillion treasury papers that US holds for China

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Sep 2017 22:47

:oops:
ramdas wrote:Not blaming ABV for not testing then. It is 13 years since ABV left. High time testing resumed give NoKo developments: NoKo has since outstripped us in warhead capability. It is better we wake up and smell the coffee.

Regarding Pak and NoKo: the sensible thing is to assume the worst. It is the paranoid who prevail in this game of accumulating national power.


He could have but he didn't since then no one had the courage to do it and likely no one would either , add to the risk our test will be followed by paki Megatron blast for equal equal thing

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 03 Sep 2017 23:30

All this about ``see the payload and guess our yield" amounts to khayali pulao. Ultimately, we have proven only boosted fission of around 20-25 kt yield. May have been enough around 1998. What is required now given the changed equation is a proven yield of several hundred kt. Even if achieved by a crude warhead design weighing 1-1.5 ton. The demonstration requires testing.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 04 Sep 2017 00:09

The sixth Chinese test in 1967 weighed 2 tonnes with a yield of 3.x MT. The fourth Chinese test, Chic-4, a missile war head, the designs for which were later transferred to Pakistan weighed 1280 kgs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs). The Chic-4 is a comparatively primitive design, even for the Pakistan's level of technological achievement at the time of transfer, sometime in late 70s/early 80s, who immediately moved onto lighter and more compact designs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs). Therefore, it follows that making a conservative multistage design weighing a few tonnes is relatively easy and quoting Oppenheimer, "..provided the computations are done carefully, relatively insensitive to design variations..", as in, provided you don't make some egregious mistake, relatively insensitive to manufacturing, relatively insensitive to small perturbations of the design.

It is my personal inference, given the record of Indian scientists, that such a MT weapon unoptimized in weight, is easily achievable. Further, the countries that need to be deterred also know the same.

On the picture released of the NK design, it looks like the hohlraum is made of aluminum or stainless steel bolted together?? I knew the multistage weapon was insensitive to small variations but I never imagined that the hohlraum could just be bolted!! Note that this is also likely the first detailed image of a multistage weapon to be released to the public. :-)

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 00:17

@sudeepj:

These inferences count for nothing unless something is demonstrated. At the moment NoKo-TSP have a proven warhead with several 100 kt yield. Better than the 2T -3MT PRC warhead. This is the kind of warhead we must demonstrate too, unless you want to be a notional nuclear power faced with full fledged nuclear arsenals on TSP's side. This is where Chidumbrum's assurance like "I can do it with my theoretical knowledge" count for nothing until it is explicitly demonstrated by a M_b 6+ at Pokhran that he can. Till then, his perch is undeserved.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 04 Sep 2017 00:40

These inferences are perfectly reasonable and more importantly, perfectly clear to the powers that want to take us on. People who are nuclear scientists themselves will know these things even better than any lay person can! So to say that there is no deterrence or deterrence is only notional is a view point that I have sympathy with, but I dont agree with. Explicitly making a 6.x richter earthquake will make it more clear than it is.. but I am not sure what it buys us. China appears to be adequately deterred for now, Pakistan's genocidal maniacs are a different matter. If they can kill us all and count on things being ok a few decades later, they will do so. If international relations deteriorate and war becomes an international norm again, or the leadership in neighbors changes and situation deteriorates, I would say, test and deploy.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Sep 2017 01:10

ramdas wrote:Indeed, NoKo have tested a H-bomb with a several 100 kt yield successfully. Those in India advocating minimal deterrence, or things like a few 20 kt are enough deterrence, etc. are doing a criminal disservice to the cause of national security by encouraging complacency. SoKo is already paying a steep price for choosing prosperity over mil. power. They have to live under NoKo hegemony or be tied as a non nuclear power to the U.S umbrella with severe restrictions on how they can respond to any provocations by NoKo.

One has to assume that TSP has this warhead or will have it very soon. This would give TSP escalation dominance in the nuclear realm unless we respond with open ended thermonuclear testing to redress this imbalance. Such dominance would put us in a situation where we accept gandhian principles and make peace with TSP on TSP's terms, which means a slow and sure death of our civilization under relentless islamization, or stand up to TSP and get cursed by superior might.

Even a 80-90% reduction in GDP due to sanctions is a price worth paying to avoid being under the shadow of nuclear dominance by TSP. It is a different matter that such a price won't have to be paid. The most that will happen is a halt to economic growth for a few years- 10-15 at most.

Not resuming thermonuclear testing ASAP till we have a credible proven warhead of several hundred kt yield would be a criminal decision by the powers that be. Unfortunately, R-Chidambaram continues to stick like a leech to his position of PSA to GoI. Hope GoI makes the right choice nevertheless- something which should have been done years ago.


I dont think India will test until Modi secures a second term and perhaps not even then, a BJP 3rd term perhaps. Till then it will be economy and more of a fortress India approach but nothing to rock the boat overmuch. More of strengthening our internal systems, putting basic deterrence in place across the triad, ensuring TSP is managed without any 26-11s etc.

Until and unless some event occurs wherein our r&d or mil guys insist we test.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 01:43

@KaranM

NoKo's close to a megaton TN test should change all these calculations (which were reasonable until this happened). Without testing, our deterrent vis a vis TSP would lack any credibility. Given PRC's aims of economic dominance, things like several 20-30 kt weapons on several cities could deter them in some circumstances. This does not work for TSP given its jihadist mentality. The only deterrent against TSP is one that can decisively win a nuclear conflict whenever TSP chooses to initiate one.

If after this development, GoI is still thinking in terms of consolidating the economy etc while allowing TSP escalation dominance for the next several years, they are living in a fool's paradise. In any case, where is the guarantee of a second term for Modi, let alone a third term for BJP ? Seems that we are stuck between asses (the BJP) and outright antinationals (the opposition).

I shall revise this viewpoint in the event of a test in the next year or so to redress this imbalance. I would be glad to eat crow then.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 01:45

@sudeepj

Where is the evidence that the 1998 failure was due to the sophistication of the design and not some egregious error by Chidambaram and Co ? All in all, looks like Chidambaram had been scientifically dishonest to say the least. To think that such an individual managed to stay as PSA to PM for three different PMs....

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2017 02:44

Gentle reminder. Thread title is about North Korea.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Gerard » 04 Sep 2017 04:45

sudeepj wrote:
Indian weaponeers are not fools, every missile we tested after pok2, had a throw weight of 1.5 tonnes+, while earlier it was only 500kgs to 1 tonne. You can figure out the weapon our deterrence is based on.



Yet some forum members think they have license to denigrate the lifetime work of patriotic scientists like Chindabaram, to call them liars and fools.
We saw this nonsense before when Kakodkar was being attacked by experts in photoshop. A man who assembled the first nuclear weapon pit with his own hands, who probably passes Pu in his stool, being attacked by folk who have never even seen a weapon, far less have any knowledge of building one. Very easy to attack politicians as well when you don't have the welfare of a billion people as your responsibility. Very easy to accept 80 or 90 or 95% reduction in GDP when your belly is full and you are not responsible.

Some people here need to invest in some video games. That is proper outlet for violent fantasies. And stop attacking people who have spent their lives in the service of India.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 05:03

What use is focussing on GDP etc. at the cost of freezing nuclear inferiority vis a vis TSP. The whole requirement is for a credible deterrent. That has to be achieved no matter what price is paid. Else a ``welfare state" that agrees to TSP hegemony and maintains minimal/zero national security could also be an option. The excuse being ``poverty alleviation is more important than military prowess". See where this has got SoKo vis a vis NoKo.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Mihir » 04 Sep 2017 05:13

ramdas wrote:Even a 80-90% reduction in GDP due to sanctions is a price worth paying to avoid being under the shadow of nuclear dominance by TSP. It is a different matter that such a price won't have to be paid. The most that will happen is a halt to economic growth for a few years- 10-15 at most.

WTF is this nonsense? An 80-90% drop in GDP is acceptable? A 10-15 year recession is acceptable? The other day some worthy in the China thread was ruing the fact that we didn't go to war over Doklam. Are people seriously so removed from reality?

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Gerard » 04 Sep 2017 05:15

Keyboard warriors.

BTW
SoKo has a quite formidable military of its own.

SoKo scientists did work in nuke warhead design, uranium enrichment, plutonium separation and laser enrichment decades ago. They also did a lot of work in missile development.

They may not have nukes now but they can quite rapidly develop an arsenal.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 05:16

Is nuclear inferiority vis a vis a rabid TSP acceptable ? If not, we have to do what is to be done to redress that imbalance. If a 10-15 year recession/period of low growth is what we get for this, we should push ahead nevertheless, or risk living under TSP military hegemony.

@Gerard

Regarding SoKo: what matters is not what they can develop. They indeed have a formidable conventional capability. They will, however, achieve deterrence vis a vis NoKo only when they go nuclear. The alternative is to rely on U.S. extended deterrence. That however, means that the U.S will impose severe constraints on the extent to which SoKo can react to NoKo provocations. At least NoKo rarely indulges in direct terrorist acts these days. TSP is different, and TSP in a position of escalation dominance vis a vis us is just not acceptable.
Last edited by ramdas on 04 Sep 2017 05:20, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Sep 2017 05:20

Ramdas, the problem with taking a maximalist approach is that the people who elected you will vote you out, and bring in absolute anti-nationals because they value a full stomach over hypotheticals of deterrence etc. its a balancing game. are MT tests the only way india can preserve deterrence against TSP or PRC in the next decade? I would wager building a superb conventional force & building larger numbers of Kt class platforms which are not interceptable can also do the job. After that, when the Indian GDP rises, the every day citizen will also be a ramdas and worry about n-doctrine etc.

Take a look at Maslows hierarchy of needs and surmise where most of the electorate is at.

The immediate needs IMO are to stabilize our internal citizens so that nationalism is ingrained in every citizen and having moral fiber (paying taxes, keeping a clean environment), preventing votebanks from wrecking internal security & building up our conventional forces & security & also raising the standard of living so that people start thinking about the more complex stuff.. are all essential.

Otherwise india WILL be NoKo. Yes Kim Jong Un may claim sovereignty (as some pappu can) but his nations strength is paper strength.
The donkeys of the BJP just stared down the PRC at Doklam, have whacked TSP non stop across the LOC despite all the sky is falling rhetoric of how the whole of India would be subject to 26/11 & the Indian economy is steadily stabilizing, despite disruptive events like DeMo.

Kindly understand Rome wasn't built in a day. I am ok with the occasional misstep or non maximalist positions as long as India stabilizes and its basics of a nation state - which were literally dismantled over 8 years - are put back in place. The rest will take care of itself.

The weaponeers at BARC & DRDO don't call up Chidambaram to make decisions. The services no doubt also take part in the discussions at SFC when telling BARC & DRDO what to make next.

The sky is not falling

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Mihir » 04 Sep 2017 05:24

ramdas wrote:Is nuclear inferiority vis a vis a rabid TSP acceptable ? If not, we have to do what is to be done to redress that imbalance. If a 10-15 year recession/period of low growth is what we get for this, we should push ahead nevertheless, or risk living under TSP military hegemony.

In other words, we shall eat grass until our perceived new clear dominance of TSP is complete. That will of course help us achieve all of our strategic goals like it did over the last 30 years.

All while China pulls even further ahead of India economically and uses economic coercion against us with greater degrees of success every year.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Karan M » 04 Sep 2017 05:24

Mihir wrote:
ramdas wrote:Even a 80-90% reduction in GDP due to sanctions is a price worth paying to avoid being under the shadow of nuclear dominance by TSP. It is a different matter that such a price won't have to be paid. The most that will happen is a halt to economic growth for a few years- 10-15 at most.

WTF is this nonsense? An 80-90% drop in GDP is acceptable? A 10-15 year recession is acceptable? The other day some worthy in the China thread was ruing the fact that we didn't go to war over Doklam. Are people seriously so removed from reality?


Our leaders are not. They strike a very sober balance for the sake of the nation. Modi visits the US and embraces folks who literally hold him & his party, his people in contempt. All he cares about is what his nation gets. He eats with Xi, plays the gracious host & then we don't budge on Doklam.

These are the kind of leaders India is lucky to have & slowly & steadily a lethargic bureaucracy is changing to accomodate.

Rocking the boat for maximalism is not in the picture. Not until we fix a lot of our internal & external security basics. MMS was an accomodationist and appeaser. Modi is more of the Roosevelt dictum mold - talk softly & carry a big stick. Building that stick is work underway

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 05:28

@KaranM:

When the GDP rises and we have too much at stake in trade etc, the will to go for further tests and face sanctions will further decrease. What when even NoKo decides to stop testing after perfecting the H-bomb ? Not testing soon leaves TSP with NoKo provided proven H-bombs of nearly megaton yield, while our only proven weapons are in the 20 kt class. Where will we have credible deterrence, unless we build 1000 warheads for every hundred they have, together with the delivery systems ? There is no sign of such a build up on our side. Minimal deterrence eventually implies no credibility.

GoI will have to take into account the changed reality post the NoKo test. Either build up the deterrent through testing, or make peace with TSP on the latter's terms to enjoy ``GDP growth". What the second option means for our civilization, everybody knows.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Mihir » 04 Sep 2017 05:29

Karan M wrote:Our leaders are not. They strike a very sober balance for the sake of the nation. Modi visits the US and embraces folks who literally hold him & his party, his people in contempt. All he cares about is what his nation gets. He eats with Xi, plays the gracious host & then we don't budge on Doklam.

These are the kind of leaders India is lucky to have & slowly & steadily a lethargic bureaucracy is changing to accomodate.

Rocking the boat for maximalism is not in the picture. Not until we fix a lot of our internal & external security basics. MMS was an accomodationist and appeaser. Modi is more of the Roosevelt dictum mold - talk softly & carry a big stick. Building that stick is work underway

+1. Focusing on short term H&D is great to win brownie points on internet boards. We should persuade our leaders to play the long game instead. Other things will fall into place automatically. Look at how Theresa May came begging for a favorable trade deal recently. Would she have done the same if India hadn't been an economic giant?

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramdas » 04 Sep 2017 05:38

@mihir

The same arguments were put up before the 1998 tests. At that time, TSP had proven fission warheads supplied by PRC. We were naked as far as deterrence goes. The 1998 tests redressed that balance. Some sanctions were faced and some price paid. The same imbalance in perms of yield is again being set up vis a vis TSP. Sooner or later, we will be forced to make one choice or the other. Hope the same fortitude that was on display in 1998 is displayed again. This is not just about H&D.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby sum » 04 Sep 2017 05:45

The fourth Chinese test, Chic-4, a missile war head, the designs for which were later transferred to Pakistan weighed 1280 kgs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs). The Chic-4 is a comparatively primitive design, even for the Pakistan's level of technological achievement at the time of transfer, sometime in late 70s/early 80s, who immediately moved onto lighter and more compact designs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs).

Sorry if late to the party but is there a link of this video?

WTF is this nonsense? An 80-90% drop in GDP is acceptable? A 10-15 year recession is acceptable? The other day some worthy in the China thread was ruing the fact that we didn't go to war over Doklam. Are people seriously so removed from reality?

^^+100%

We have people being made restive due to a 1-2% fall for a quarter of GDP and the govt furiously trying to defend it. So that should give a idea how tied govts hands are.

Btw, SoKo is in same boat and literally unable to move a muscle despite being directly affected since the people will not tolerate any reduction of their basic lifestyle/GDP since already govt is in pressure on mounting unemployement and "reducing growth"

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby sudeepj » 04 Sep 2017 06:38

sum wrote:
The fourth Chinese test, Chic-4, a missile war head, the designs for which were later transferred to Pakistan weighed 1280 kgs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs). The Chic-4 is a comparatively primitive design, even for the Pakistan's level of technological achievement at the time of transfer, sometime in late 70s/early 80s, who immediately moved onto lighter and more compact designs (source: Pakistani general talk at Lawrence Livermore labs).

Sorry if late to the party but is there a link of this video?


https://youtu.be/oydtFyjWxgI?t=286

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby Mihir » 04 Sep 2017 06:54

Ramdas, first of all, that was then, this is now. Today, a tested, weaponised design exists. Even if it is not multi-megaton thermonuclear bomb. Even so the Shakti tests were expensive for our economy. While aggregate growth might not have faltered, some sectors of the economy suffered. For instance, a bunch of weapons R&D programmes came under sanctions and were delayed anywhere between 10 and 20 years. Imagine what would have happened if Lockheed had continued supporting the development of the LCA's fly-by-wire system ... we might have had multiple squadrons of Mk-Is flying today, with Mk-IIs on the verge of being inducted. It's just one example, but you get the idea.

Second, deterrence is as much about intent as capability. If India overtly eschews the use of her deterrent, even a Tsar Bomba won't help you. In that sense, something like this is much more useful.

Third, what makes you so convinced that Packee warheads were "proven" before 1998? Do you have 400% irrefutable evidence? If you don't, then we need to ponder why their deterrent has been so effective while ours supposedly hasn't.

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby shiv » 04 Sep 2017 07:35

I have reported 12-14 off topic posts which really should be on the deterrence thread, not this one

I have reported my own post also with the following message
Mods - the people who have made off topic posts have valid viewpoints. Why not simply move them to the deterrence thread where the debate can continue?

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby shiv » 04 Sep 2017 09:08

Philip wrote:(URGENT) North Korean artificial quake 9.8 times more powerful than fifth nuclear test: Seoul weather agency

List of NoKo tests
NoKos fifth nuclear test
(5) 9 September 2016 00:30:01 PYT
(+8:30 hrs)
Punggye-ri Test Site, North Korea 41.298°N 129.015°E[note 4]
15 - 25 kt

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Re: North Korea : Military Technology News & Discussion

Postby ramana » 04 Sep 2017 09:16

I am closing this thread as folks dont have the focu to post in the right thread.


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