2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

[Cyrano]

^^Must read for all Indians and those interested in Indian affairs.

[vijayk]

https://twitter.com/timesnow/status/1324611369732206593

#Breaking | I-T Dept unearths a financial scam under the Believers' Church. Almost Rs 4.5 crore has been seized. Raids are still underway.

Vivek Karindalam with details.

watch the video

https://twitter.com/amitsurg/status/1324745498176073740

Prof राजीवः श्रीनिवासः
@RajeevSrinivasa

even worse, doc. they used political power to encroach a 20,000 acre estate which iirc is state property. then they, magnanimously, agreed to sell 200 acres (these numbers are roughly of the right order of magnitude) to the govt for an airport for sabarimala that nobody needs.

[hanumadu]

Chintamani exit poll for Bihar elections.

[Sicanta]

Bar & Bench

@barandbench
[Breaking] "If we grant remedy, then everyone will come to the High Court", Bombay High Court observes; reserves order in Arnab Goswami pleas.


That is some Grade A reasoning.

[Sicanta]

Chintamani exit poll for Bihar elections.

Left parties are being predicted to win 10 seats, up from 3 last time. This is not good.

[hanumadu]

All other exit polls give an edge to UPA. 80+ seats to RJD. A 10th pass will be the CM of Bihar.

Chintamani gives a clear win for NDA.

[Ambar]

Hate to sound like Cassandra but i said so sometime ago -

RJD will not risk giving Nitesh the CM seat because (a) Thejaswi knows with the once in a lifetime pandemic and its economic destruction, this is his best shot at becoming the CM and (b) RJD looks at this election as a fight for its political survival, another 3 to 5 years on the sidelines and there is no guarantee they'll be in this strong a position next time.

Nitesh may as well lobby for a cabinet post in Delhi after this. The horrific images from Munger,BH, will be milked every single minute by Thejaswi and Congress until the end of the elections. I've heard 2 versions (a) Peacefuls attacked the devotees who were on their way to immerse Durga idols on the day of Dussehra , and in turn when the devotees turned violent the police fired and baton charged and (b) there was disagreement between the administration and the devotees on the route of the procession, there was stone pelting which led to the police firing live rounds and baton charged.

Nitesh is battling anti-incumbency, a young Bihar that does not remember Lalu's dark days, a large migratory workforce which has lost its livelihoods due to the pandemic and Munger's attroticites. It will be a miracle if NDA can stitch together a government.

[sanjayc]

^^ Hindus have a habit of keeping their civilizational enemies in circulation by blind support. And Hindu hriday samrats when they come to power become secular administrators, forgetting all about Hindu causes.

[hanumadu]

Hate to sound like Cassandra but i said so sometime ago -

..snip..

Nitesh is battling anti-incumbency, a young Bihar that does not remember Lalu's dark days, a large migratory workforce which has lost its livelihoods due to the pandemic and Munger's attroticites. It will be a miracle if NDA can stitch together a government.

Exit polls reveal younger voters favored UPA by quite a margin. Even Tejasvi was the preferred CM. I guess they should experience what the older voters experienced.

[greatde]

This Bihar election will impact Gujarat election. Similar situation, where a big anti-incumbency , and a weak CM persona.

The jungle raj agenda of NDA, failed in 2015, and failed again 2020.

[Sicanta]

Savyasachi

EXITPOLL #BIHAR

MGB- 135-147

(RJD- 90-97
INC-25-32
LEFT-15-18)

NDA- 90-98

(BJP-56-63
JDU-30-35
HAM+VIP-2-3)

OTHERS-10-14
(LJP-4-6)

[Rahul M]

Any national governing system based on universal sufferage is a tragedy of gargantuan proportions and sooner rather than later will collapse under its own weight. Universal sufferage means universal mediocrity.

Hain ??
What kind of government would you rather have ?
One where the electorate is carefully chosen by a party high command, like in the PRC ??

[hanumadu]

This will at least bring Nitish Kumar to the ground.

Today's Chanakya
@TodaysChanakya
#TCPoll
#BiharElection2020
Seat Projection
BJP – JDU+ 55 ± 11 Seats
RJD – Cong+ 180 ± 11 Seats
Others 8 ± 4 Seats

[Ambar]

Makes you wonder how lucky INC is ! They've been around for over 100 years, built a robust ecosystem which pays endless dividends, and all they have to do it just contest the elections. I have no reasons to doubt the exit polls, the only good thing is whatever mechanizations Nitesh had planned to screw BJP (again) has now been put permanently in storage. It will also allow BJP to develop the party in Bihar from a grassroot level without having to care about JDU. Ofcourse, Uddhav Thackeray will breathe a sigh of relief and will further tighen the screws on Arnab, Kangana and other nationalists without the fear of his coalition falling apart.

[m_saini]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years?

I hope with whatever time BJP has left in center they free hindu temples from gov control, change the mughal heavy educational policy and try to build an ecosystem for themselves.

Even Trump has the sense to install friendly judges in supreme court.

[darshhan]

Any national governing system based on universal sufferage is a tragedy of gargantuan proportions and sooner rather than later will collapse under its own weight. Universal sufferage means universal mediocrity.

Hain ??
What kind of government would you rather have ?
One where the electorate is carefully chosen by a party high command, like in the PRC ??

It is not what type of govt I would rather have. But who will capitalise on the prevailing anarchy once the current system of universal sufferage collapses? Don't worry we are still maybe 10-20 years away from such a situation. And before us western countries will take the fall.

As far as India's historical mode of governance is concerned, the default was benevolent monarchy. i.e atleast till the advent of islamic invasions.

[Ambar]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years?

I hope with whatever time BJP has left in center they free hindu temples from gov control, change the mughal heavy educational policy and try to build an ecosystem for themselves.

Even Trump has the sense to install friendly judges in supreme court.

Lucky in a sense they've been around from inception even before independence, so they had the advantage of creating something from the scratch and designing a system which helps their ideology, beliefs, objectives. For nearly 4 decades after independence they went unchallenged, where as today we see how anti-incumbency plays a roll even after just 5 yrs. I think the next big ticket item for Modi is water connectivity followed by NRC, the temple control and NCERT revision can happen at a cabinet ministry level if he can find some competent cabinet ministers i.e. There is only so much Modi, Amit Shah, Gadkari and Jaishankar can do when the rest are duds.

[hanumadu]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years?

I hope with whatever time BJP has left in center they free hindu temples from gov control, change the mughal heavy educational policy and try to build an ecosystem for themselves.

Even Trump has the sense to install friendly judges in supreme court.

Right now, they are winning by default, because the people are tired of the others. Anti incumbency is the prime reason they are winning. If I was BJP, I would take it. 5 years of congress rule for 15 years of BJP rule. It's a good deal.

I would rather have younger Bihar learn what jungle raj is for the next 5 years and BJP bounce back for the next 15 years.

Let's see how the illiterate Tejasvi Yadav handles the govt.

[darshhan]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years?

I hope with whatever time BJP has left in center they free hindu temples from gov control, change the mughal heavy educational policy and try to build an ecosystem for themselves.

Even Trump has the sense to install friendly judges in supreme court.

BJP no longer has the ideological clarity.

Do not depend on any single political party to effect changes meant to favour Hindus and their interests. You will be invariably disappointed. Launch your own movement to free temples and mobilise hindus.

As far as BJP is concerned, their state govts like uttarakhand is actually doing the reverse i.e increasing govt control over its Temples including Holy abode of Kedarnath. The priests are on fast against this draconian order. In Himachal again a bjp ruled state, a lady IAS officer had the audacity of disrupting centuries old parampara of Yajna in name of Social justice and for some PR. In bihar where BJP is a ruling alliance partner for last 15 years, anti hindu Bihar police kills a devotee during Durga visarjan.

[darshhan]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years?

I hope with whatever time BJP has left in center they free hindu temples from gov control, change the mughal heavy educational policy and try to build an ecosystem for themselves.

Even Trump has the sense to install friendly judges in supreme court.

Right now, they are winning by default, because the people are tired of the others. Anti incumbency is the prime reason they are winning. If I was BJP, I would take it. 5 years of congress rule for 15 years of BJP rule. It's a good deal.

I would rather have younger Bihar learn what jungle raj is for the next 5 years and BJP bounce back for the next 15 years.

Let's see how the illiterate Tejasvi Yadav handles the govt.

Yeah sure. BJP cannot even protect or avenge its own workers. And you think they will end the jungle raj. If jungle raj has ended it is because police are themselves the biggest and most brutal gang albeit uniformed and they came to a realisation that there is far more money to be minted if other gangsters were neutralised. In munger Anurag Poddar's brain was not spilled by any criminal but by Bihar police.

[hanumadu]

Yeah sure. BJP cannot even protect or avenge its own workers. And you think they will end the jungle raj. If jungle raj has ended it is because police are themselves the biggest and most brutal gang albeit uniformed and they came to a realisation that there is far more money to be minted if other gangsters were neutralised. In munger Anurag Poddar's brain was not spilled by any criminal but by Bihar police.

Wow, somehow you connected everything to munger. The BJP won't end jungle raj, the people will. They did it once, they will do it again. Your posts don't make any sense. Sorry.

[sanjayc]

^How are INC lucky if they've built a robust ecosystem for over 100 years? Right now, they are winning by default, because the people are tired of the others. Anti incumbency is the prime reason they are winning. If I was BJP, I would take it. 5 years of congress rule for 15 years of BJP rule. It's a good deal.

Hindus have an itch. The same thing happened in MP where they voted Cong to power. In six months, the eyes of Hindus crossed when Congress' goon raj began in earnest with street brawls and extortion. In their typical mental blindness, Hindus had not thought of the implications of mafia rule of Congress mercenaries. Their backside got saved by Scindia's revolt, or their goose would have got truly cooked for five years with corruption and crime. Then Rajasthan Hindus got the itch -- "Modi tujh se bair nahin, rani teri khair nahin." Now, crackers are banned, Hindus are getting killed by Muslim thugs, special lollipops for Muslims, jailing of farmers defending their cattle against cattle smugglers ... I am sure they well and truly taught the Rani a lesson.

[darshhan]

Yeah sure. BJP cannot even protect or avenge its own workers. And you think they will end the jungle raj. If jungle raj has ended it is because police are themselves the biggest and most brutal gang albeit uniformed and they came to a realisation that there is far more money to be minted if other gangsters were neutralised. In munger Anurag Poddar's brain was not spilled by any criminal but by Bihar police.

Wow, somehow you connected everything to munger. The BJP won't end jungle raj, the people will. They did it once, they will do it again. Your posts don't make any sense. Sorry.

Lol I did not connect everything to munger. I just gave an example. Probably you couldn't understand. That's okay.

If it is the people who end jungle raj as you say, then they will do the same in Tejaswi's rule too. Why worry then?

[kvraghav]

Its very simple. Congress is team work and BJP is individual performer. So congress performs at every level and they work very hard to protect and grow team members and in case of BJP, as soon as the individual reaches his destination, he just throws everybody else under the bus.

[m_saini]

Lucky in a sense they've been around from inception even before independence, so they had the advantage of creating something from the scratch and designing a system which helps their ideology, beliefs, objectives. For nearly 4 decades after independence they went unchallenged, where as today we see how anti-incumbency plays a roll even after just 5 yrs. I think the next big ticket item for Modi is water connectivity followed by NRC, the temple control and NCERT revision can happen at a cabinet ministry level if he can find some competent cabinet ministers i.e. There is only so much Modi, Amit Shah, Gadkari and Jaishankar can do when the rest are duds.

I feel like temple control is such a major issue that they should've done it the moment they came in power. Imo it's bigger than NRC, bigger than 370 and even RJB. Having a hindu central authority who can spend the enormous donations towards the right cause would be huge. Probably could've made the media life a LOT more easier for BJP, help in getting RJB verdict a lot sooner etc.

Imo with the water and bijli connections, they're doing noble but worthless work. Sure it makes people lives better but the mango man doesn't remember these things after a month or so and this is why things like loan waivers and free electricity work so well near the elections in our country.

[darshhan]

Hindus have an itch. The same thing happened in MP where they voted Cong to power. In six months, the eyes of Hindus crossed when Congress' goon raj began in earnest with street brawls and extortion. In their typical mental blindness, Hindus had not thought of the implications of mafia rule of Congress mercenaries. Their backside got saved by Scindia's revolt, or their goose would have got truly cooked for five years with corruption and crime. Then Rajasthan Hindus got the itch -- "Modi tujh se bair nahin, rani teri khair nahin." Now, crackers are banned, Hindus are getting killed by Muslim thugs, special lollipops for Muslims, jailing of farmers defending their cattle against cattle smugglers ... I am sure they well and truly taught the Rani a lesson.

Major role in Cracker banning initiative was taken by Dr Harshvardhan of BJP. The notices to states have been sent by NGT which doesn't belong to state govts. Even Chandigarh has banned crackers. It is a UT governed directly by BJP. So is Haryana and Karnataka. Both have banned crackers. Probably rescinded by Karnataka since. As far as Hindus getting killed by muslims is concerned, tell me how many links of such incidents happening in BJP run states should I send to you? I hope you do remember in which state Nikita Tomar was shot dead and who rules that state. As far as lollipops to muslims is concerned just check the data of central govt on who is using the bulk of scholarships.

At the end I would like to point out that Hindus are not the bonded labour of any political party.

[KJo]

BJP has no guts to ban loudspeakers blaring AOA at unAllahLy hours.
Or ban bakrid murders on the roads.

My journo friend in BLR says KA ban is rescinded and it's now an "appeal".

[fanne]

Boss I vote Darshan ji for PM!! Please we have one candidate, and request others to join in. First, he will single hand punish Modi ji for his reluctance for not being a good Hindu, then 2) Argue with his superior logic and force the SC to allow cracker 3)perhaps intimidate Kejriwal that he will pi$$ and allow firecrackers and he will use the great sense of clarity that he has displayed here (along with good dose of virtue signaling, indignant anger) to provide Indians with clarity so all of them become super honest,very hard working, intelligent, law abiding overnight.
Please sir, don't waste time, demand your right full place ....(and when you are at that, can you order mother nature to be little less cold this time? and spring arrive little early? Pretty please)

[fanne]

you can find manty of your cabinet ministers here btw!!

[m_saini]

You will be invariably disappointed. Launch your own movement to free temples and mobilise hindus.

As far as BJP is concerned, their state govts like uttarakhand is actually doing the reverse i.e increasing govt control over its Temples including Holy abode of Kedarnath. The priests are on fast against this draconian order. In Himachal again a bjp ruled state, a lady IAS officer had the audacity of disrupting centuries old parampara of Yajna in name of Social justice and for some PR. In bihar where BJP is a ruling alliance partner for last 15 years, anti hindu Bihar police kills a devotee during Durga visarjan.

Starting a movement for such a huge issue would be impossible without the support of orgs like RSS etc who hoard all the hindus who have half a brain. Where I live, there's not a single person who believes in the hindu cause and isn't already a member at the local shakha.

And if I have their support, can't they ask their ideological child in power at center to do it? Does RSS etc only help BJP win elections but have no control over them afterwards?

[darshan]

Looks like the plan is to keep Arnab in jail past the Diwali shutdown.

[Sicanta]

Lots of data points here:

https://www.indiatoday.in/elections/sto ... 2020-11-07

According to the exit-poll findings though, it's not primarily Yadav's age that has won him sizeable support but disaffection with the incumbents, especially on the economic front.

Twenty-five per cent of the respondents accused Kumar's government of overlooking development followed by 21 per cent seeking a change.

Only 12 per cent liked the opposition alliance because of Yadav's young face.

Development and unemployment have been major issues for most voters in the state.

For 30 per cent of the electorate, joblessness was the biggest concern, the exit poll showed.

About 42 per cent of the respondents in the India Today-Axis-My-India found development losing pace in Bihar.

Inflation worried another 11 per cent of the voters, the survey found.

Ironically, the people's acknowledgement of the Nitish Kumar government's projects on roads, water and electricity over the past 15 years turned them into non-issues, the poll observed.

And NDA supporters who want the NDA to retain power, 43 per cent of them, want it not because of Kumar's government but because they rated the central government's performance as good.

Forty-one per cent of the SC vote, the findings show, went to the NDA and 35 per cent of it to the Mahagathbandhan, according to the poll.

The NDA also appears to have won 57 per cent of OBC and EBC support, more than double of what the opposition could secure in this bloc.

But the Muslim-Yadav-Youth factor appears to have made all the difference in favour of the Mahagathbandhan with its young leader having capitalized and converted strong anti-incumbent sentiments into votes.

Occupation-wise data also reveal the RJD-led scored over the NDA across the spectrum, with 47 per cent of the unemployed, 49 per cent of students, 44 per cent of migrant workers and 48 per cent of farmers backing it. The incumbents trailed from seven to 16 percentage points among these job groups.

Surprising that BJP could not read the aspirations of youth, cause the social equations are more or less in favor of BJP still.

[SRajesh]

^^^Will this in a way end JDU
Either they have to join RJD or join BJP.
The lawlessness will probably in Bihar return .
I am now wondering how NaMo n AS have made mistakes three times in a row: Maharashtra, MP and Now Bihar.
Scindia saved the bacon in MP
Agadi is hell bent on committing Hara-Kiri
At this rate come 2024 will it be repeat of the post Emergency Janata Combine (Cong+RJD+NCP+SP+BSP+Left+Didi+DMK+TRS+TD)
These could be amply funded overtly and covertly by CCP+Soros+Unkil
All with the sole intent of defeating NaMo
This would lead to a 10-15 yrs total chaos in the country with Baboos running riot and various lobbies vying for a piece of cake.
Salami Slicing Kashmir conundrum etc will start
Hope BJP take course correction and stem this rot.

[Sicanta]

This is not the end. Tejaswai yadav has promised lakhs of Gov jobs. That is not possible, in this world or next. Even doing a percent of it will add to burden on government exchequer. Where will they raise the revenue from? Cant ask the centre for alms. Not to forget the hundred % chance of scandals favoring yadavs over other caste groups. Private jobs take time and effort to create. And an enabling environment. That will be the biggest roadblock, given its RJD-Congress combo with leftist parties to add the tadka.

BJP just needs to do course correction. And do something about whatever poll agency they hire to read the issues/trendson the ground.

[chetak]

I think that nitishwa is done for and the BJP has gotten rid of him.

he will be looking for either a RS seat with a cushy cabinet post or a peaceful governor's gaddi in some hospitable climate which one hopes that he will not get.

he will, of course, take a chance and pitch for the VP post, parading his caste credentials.

one has a strange feeling that nitishwa may have been led into a trap so that he can be eased out without political repercussions. no one likes this guy, especially not the BJP leadership. All this is assuming that the NDA does not win the BH polls

I also have the feeling that the NDA will form the next BH govt, despite all the exit polls to the contrary and nitishwa will be the toothless and symbolic CM with the BJP keeping all the vital ministries for itself leaving nitishwa with no meaningful ministries for his JDU.

BTW, recall that MAD refused to give him the railway min which he very recently demanded from them thus leaving him powerless to dish out vote catching govt jobs just before the BH elections.

In such a case, he may quit quietly after 8-10 months to take "rest".

the BJP don't want this nitishwa millstone around their necks come the next gen elections. Their RS seats numbers are anyway protected and that may matter more to the BJP than govt formation in BH at this time. They have enough control over tejaswi via luloo prasad in jail/bail

[Sicanta]

And one more point, its heartening to see that the defining issues are 'Development, Jobs' etc and not the usual caste equations that are the be all and end all. BJP can work with this.

I may be wrong but this is my take from this.

[hanumadu]

^^^Will this in a way end JDU
Either they have to join RJD or join BJP.
The lawlessness will probably in Bihar return .
I am now wondering how NaMo n AS have made mistakes three times in a row: Maharashtra, MP and Now Bihar.
Scindia saved the bacon in MP
Agadi is hell bent on committing Hara-Kiri
At this rate come 2024 will it be repeat of the post Emergency Janata Combine (Cong+RJD+NCP+SP+BSP+Left+Didi+DMK+TRS+TD)
These could be amply funded overtly and covertly by CCP+Soros+Unkil
All with the sole intent of defeating NaMo
This would lead to a 10-15 yrs total chaos in the country with Baboos running riot and various lobbies vying for a piece of cake.
Salami Slicing Kashmir conundrum etc will start
Hope BJP take course correction and stem this rot.

And the world is ending tomorrow. I doubt if even the leftists have such wet dreams.

[Ambar]

Sicantaji, don't be surprised, the young Biharis have always been hardworking, aspirational and very, very humble. It is unfortunate that their state has been led by buffoons' for so long. As for Tejasvi Yadav, the promise of 10 lakh jobs is similar to Kamalnath's "I'll wave off all the farmer loans in 2 weeks!" kinda promise. Tejasvi will drag it till next election and use it as a plank again, but for a state as broke as Bihar with no revenue even from the lucrative excise dept. he'd struggle to generate 10k jobs let alone a million. Like i said, maybe this result will help BJP build the party from grassroots the way they need to do in MH. I know BJP has a lot of young,dynamic strategists and advisors who hail from Bihar, its time to let them lead the change and put Sushil Modi to pasture.

In all this Mayawati must be anxious , she is witnessing the rise of radical Jai Bhim party and its violent leader Chandrashekhar Azad. They've been very active in Bihar and will switch to UP in a couple of years, BSP leadership does not like Jai Bhim, so it will be interesting to see the dynamic there.

[chetak]

And one more point, its heartening to see that the defining issues are 'Development, Jobs' etc and not the usual caste equations that are the be all and end all. BJP can work with this.

I may be wrong but this is my take from this.

the votes have all been cast on caste grounds anyway.

the issues of 'Development, Jobs' may have taken center stage this time because a lot of the traditional BH migrant labor is sitting right there in BH, stranded without jobs because the industries where they usually find work in outside states have mostly closed down due to the pandemic.

that's from where the 2-3% of the extra votes have come from to pump up the usual/normal voting numbers in BH

[Sicanta]

After the initial honeymoon period, what will probably happen is that RJD will try to shift blame onto centre on Jobs front, through various means including wanting special status for state, and then try to show themselves and by extension Bihar as victims of 'revenge' policies of the centre. Try to play on emotions is easier than actually doing the heavy work. All BJP has to do is not allow this while keeping focus on these issues. Cause Mahathugbandhan will remain true its name and aim as ever.