2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 09:04

Early trends show MGB sweep in TOI.
Republic showing NDA lead.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 10 Nov 2020 10:20

Zee says NDA:112 MTB:112

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 10:27

Looking at trends, I think ljp will be king maker and his single demand will be to remove nitishwa.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 10:30

neck and neck. see saw between nda and mgb.

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 10 Nov 2020 10:40

Nitishwa will not hesitate to flip one more time. Ideologically he is closer to Con than Bjp.

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 10:48

Tej Pratap Yadav trailing as per news18. NDA slowly pulling away as per TOI. It might win a majority on its own. Tochwood.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 10 Nov 2020 10:53

hanumadu wrote:Tej Pratap Yadav trailing as per news18. NDA slowly pulling away as per TOI. It might win a majority on its own. Tochwood.

Only by 2:00pm it will be clear. In 2015, MGB pulled ahead after 11am. But most important thing is, Modi magic still works.

KJo · Post by **KJo** » 10 Nov 2020 10:59

NDA ahead

Santosh · Post by **Santosh** » 10 Nov 2020 11:11

Yep. Looks like they have simple majority on their own now

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 11:35

Too much flip flop. Looks like MGB now getting majority

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 10 Nov 2020 11:43

kvraghav wrote:Too much flip flop. Looks like MGB now getting majority

Where are you seeing this saar? All news channels showing NDA between 122-128 range...

As an aside, Lalu's son Tej Pratap and Shotgun Shatrugan's son Luv Sinha are both trailing from their respective seats...

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Nov 2020 11:46

Let's wait and see.

Less than 20% of the vote counted.

Remember the last BH election...NDA initially ran away with the lead, people like Annoy Roy had already called the election for NDA...but things reversed dramatically after that.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 10 Nov 2020 11:48

KL Dubey wrote:Let's wait and see.

Less than 20% of the vote counted.

Remember the last BH election...NDA initially ran away with the lead, people like Annoy Roy had already called the election for NDA...but things reversed dramatically after that.

No saar...I can feel it in my bones this time. NDA will get stronger when more votes are counted, not weaker. They will end at 132-135.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 11:56

As per R Jagannathan, these trends are mainly from urban areas. Rural is still to come

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 10 Nov 2020 12:00

Shaktimaan wrote: No saar...I can feel it in my bones this time. NDA will get stronger when more votes are counted, not weaker. They will end at 132-135.

I hope Nistishwa doesnt flip over to the dark side Shiv Sena style. Hope BJP has extremely strong pre-nups with the JDU to not let that happen.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 10 Nov 2020 12:02

Sicanta wrote:As per R Jagannathan, these trends are mainly from urban areas. Rural is still to come

True. But I am sure by 2pm the results will be clear

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Nov 2020 12:04

A very good morning for BJP every where:Bihar, all the bye-polls.
Dubbaka in Telangana is a great prevursor to 2023.

ramana · Post by **ramana** » 10 Nov 2020 12:06

Sicanta wrote:As per R Jagannathan, these trends are mainly from urban areas. Rural is still to come

Rural women vote is strongly for Modi.

Shaktimaan · Post by **Shaktimaan** » 10 Nov 2020 12:07

The more worrying thing is that the Communists are doing well in Bihar this time. Therefore it is very important to have a Nationalist state government, or else we may see increased Naxal activity in Bihar.

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 10 Nov 2020 12:12

Shaktimaan wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:Let's wait and see.

Less than 20% of the vote counted.

Remember the last BH election...NDA initially ran away with the lead, people like Annoy Roy had already called the election for NDA...but things reversed dramatically after that.
No saar...I can feel it in my bones this time. NDA will get stronger when more votes are counted, not weaker. They will end at 132-135.

That would be great. Let's hope....!

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 12:40

Sicanta wrote:As per R Jagannathan, these trends are mainly from urban areas. Rural is still to come

How would we know where the evms are from? They all would be brought to the counting centres and separated by constituency. Would they be separated by booth too? And if they would be, why would they count urban votes first?

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 10 Nov 2020 12:43

If NDA wins, then BJP must cut Nitish down to size. Pack him off to be governor somewhere else.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 10 Nov 2020 13:24

BJP is so naïve. Why cant WB BJP protest Arnab arrest like how Adhir did it with Rhea?

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 10 Nov 2020 13:40

AshishA wrote:If NDA wins, then BJP must cut Nitish down to size. Pack him off to be governor somewhere else.

At the same time they don't want JD(U) to do an Udhav Thackeray, its a fine balancing act. BJP will need allies, Nitish is one of the few today, they have to keep them.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 13:51

hanumadu wrote:
How would we know where the evms are from? They all would be brought to the counting centres and separated by constituency. Would they be separated by booth too? And if they would be, why would they count urban votes first?

He may have meant constituency wise - urban and rural.

Meanwhile -

Around 4.10 crore votes were cast, 92 lakh votes counted so far. Earlier there used to be 25-26 rounds of counting, this time it went up to around 35 rounds. So the counting will continue till late evening: Chief Electoral Officer (CEO) of Bihar, HR Srinivas

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 10 Nov 2020 14:03

Aditya_V wrote:
AshishA wrote:If NDA wins, then BJP must cut Nitish down to size. Pack him off to be governor somewhere else.
At the same time they don't want JD(U) to do an Udhav Thackeray, its a fine balancing act. BJP will need allies, Nitish is one of the few today, they have to keep them.

Hence the governor status for Nitish.

shaun · Post by **shaun** » 10 Nov 2020 14:05

people in WB wants the status quo to be maintained. The progressive ones have left and the rest are still busking in the glory of socialist era . When Tata was shown the door , 99.9% people who have got nothing to do with Singur rejoiced , forgetting that it will hamper industrialization for decades to come in their state. To top it , the last commie regime did nothing with Mr. Buddha being the exception who tried hard too woo Industries with out help from his party colleagues. The result is some presence of IT in bengal. With didi in the helm , roads , water infrastructure which were decaying for decades were give some life. people in WB take this as development . apart from this the doles given from state coffers (without any increase in revenue ) too acts as a large cadre voting in favor of them. Only thing acting in favor of BJP in WB is the people's resistance against islamization in hinterlands.

Ashokk · Post by **Ashokk** » 10 Nov 2020 14:11

Bihar Election Results: Congress’ Udit Raj raises questions over EVMs, gives bizarre logic of US elections

As the RJD-led Mahagatbandan trails behind NDA in the counting of votes for the 243 seats in Bihar Assembly, Congress national spokesperson Udit Raj once again raised questions on the authenticity of the Electronic Voting Machines (EVMs). Taking to Twitter, the former member of Parliament, claimed that US president Donald Trump would probably not have lost the elections earlier this month if America had voted in EVMs.

OmkarC · Post by **OmkarC** » 10 Nov 2020 14:14

Dubbaka Bypoll in Telangana is now a cliffhanger b/w BJP & TRS.. BJP leading by 4000+ votes after round 12 & 50% more votes to be counted. The BJP candidate is head & shoulders above both TRS & Cong candidates, but TRS pumped in a lot of money, misused govt machinery. If BJP wins today, this will be a turning point in TG politics...

hanumadu · Post by **hanumadu** » 10 Nov 2020 15:15

Sicanta wrote:
hanumadu wrote:
How would we know where the evms are from? They all would be brought to the counting centres and separated by constituency. Would they be separated by booth too? And if they would be, why would they count urban votes first?
He may have meant constituency wise - urban and rural.

By that time leads from all constituencies had already come in. All constituencies were being counted.

Hari Seldon · Post by **Hari Seldon** » 10 Nov 2020 15:38

Cracker sales banned in Lucknow till Nov 30 following NGT order.

Sicanta · Post by **Sicanta** » 10 Nov 2020 15:45

Hari Seldon wrote:Cracker sales banned in Lucknow till Nov 30 following NGT order.

As per NGT Order

isubodh · Post by **isubodh** » 10 Nov 2020 16:05

Hari Seldon wrote:Cracker sales banned in Lucknow till Nov 30 following NGT order.

Some people are equating Diwali to Fireworks. I think that's irrational. We celebrate Diwali to welcome Rama to his kindom after exile of 14years and defeating Ravana. The streets are lit with diyas and colors of rangoli. So when did firework come in pic.
Also as a sensible person given we already have smoke filled cities why add more and also pay Chinese for it.

Diwali is much much bigger than fireworks.

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 10 Nov 2020 16:19

isubodh wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:Cracker sales banned in Lucknow till Nov 30 following NGT order.
Some people are equating Diwali to Fireworks. I think that's irrational. We celebrate Diwali to welcome Rama to his kindom after exile of 14years and defeating Ravana. The streets are lit with diyas and colors of rangoli. So when did firework come in pic.
Also as a sensible person given we already have smoke filled cities why add more and also pay Chinese for it.

Diwali is much much bigger than fireworks.

Perhaps it might be educational for you to see why people celebrate Deepavali, before commenting on rationality, how to celebrate, and the like. Even Wikipedia is a good starting point: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Diwali#Hinduism

arshyam · Post by **arshyam** » 10 Nov 2020 16:21

Looks like the Telegana upset is now (almost) official: Telangana bypoll: BJP candidate defeats TRS rival by 706 votes after see-saw battle - TNIE

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 10 Nov 2020 16:26

Sorry, Deepawali has had fireworks since time immemorial, and it called infringement of rights, Fireworks change over time but their pollution is insignificant.

The whole idea is make controversy around Hindu festivals, we need not be pushed around

IN fact why not a world wide Ban on Fireworks related to US independence day, various sports events and News years day where fireworks cause pollution on an Industrial scale.

Rishi_Tri · Post by **Rishi_Tri** » 10 Nov 2020 16:39

4:06 PM and here is the Bihar status with more than 50% votes counted:

Times Now - NDA 133 (BJP+ 82, JDU 51)
NDTV - NDA 133 (BJP+85, JDU 48) .. half way mark is 123.

Bihar is won as:

-with progression of counting the victory margin i.e., absolute seat count has increased for NDA
-the margins have increased for NDA leads.

This shall be fourth term for NDA government in Bihar discounting the year during which JDU went to bed with RJD.

Really glad that Bihar discounted the promises such as 10 lakh jobs and voted for some real work on the ground, and not for the thugs who destroyed the state from 1990 to 2005. And work especially infra work has happened and I can say having travelled through Bihar, the roads even in the remotest corners are as good as anywhere else in the country. Of course, infra is only one part of the overall story.

Jai Sita Maiya... Will burst crackers this Deepavali.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 10 Nov 2020 16:40

NGT is a part of BIF structure created by Sonia Gandhi in 2010. Needs to be abolished. NGOs and BIF forces use it to target everything under the sun. They hounded Sri Sri too when he held a program on the banks of Yamuna. It is heavily beholden to NGOs and the PIL gang. There is lot of immaturity too in NGT orders. It came up with an extremely foolish order to halt all construction within 10 Km of okhla bird sanctuary in Noida that created lot of chaos as it is right in the center of city. That was a fit case for dismantling this odious BIF institution.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 10 Nov 2020 16:44

isubodh wrote:Diwali is much much bigger than fireworks.

Dude, this logic can be used to ban not only crackers, but sweets, candles, oil diyas, pooja and everything else, since the festival is bigger than all of these. This is the thinking of a Gungadeen who cannot see a civilizational attack when he sees one

srin · Post by **srin** » 10 Nov 2020 17:16

Eating sweets is not good for health. Sweet selling should be banned till Nov 30.

Nothing to do with Diwali of course. Diwali is not just about sweets.

Health is critical.