2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

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chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 04:49

Meanwhile, back at the chinese ranch.............. :mrgreen:

this very rice imported from India may well be used to feed their pampered frontline troops intruding into Indian spaces.


As China edges towards a food crisis, it looks at India to feed its citizens


As China edges towards a food crisis, it looks at India to feed its citizens

Recently, the Chinese President had termed the wastage of food in China as 'shocking' and 'distressing'. In August this year, he launched a campaign in the country called 'Operation Empty Plate'.

3 December, 2020
OpIndia Staff

China to import rice from India


A major food crisis seems to be looming over China that is now looking towards India for the import of rice that is a staple for about two-thirds of its population. Apart from the Wuhan virus pandemic, China has faced calamities including floods, epidemics, locusts and also suffered trade setbacks that have shaken the food supply of the country. In view of the food shortage, Chinese premier Xi Jinping had even launched a public campaign to control food wastage.

According to a report by Wion, some Chinese experts had claimed that the country was possibly in the middle of a food crisis and China, as usual, tried its best to keep the news under wraps. After the reduction in rice supplies from Thailand, Myanmar and Vietnam, China has now turned to India to import rice. Traditionally, China has been purchasing rice from Thailand, Myanmar, Vietnam and Pakistan but now the countries are quoting rates which were at $30 extra for a tonne of rice. The fact that China is importing rice from India despite the situation at the LAC shows that the country is in desperate need of rice. China has contracted Indian traders for the import of 100,000 tonnes of broken rice for $300 per tonne.

As per reports, several reasons are here for the current food crisis in China. The impact of the pandemic on agriculture, livestock diseases, disruption of global supply chains, disruption in the agricultural cycle in China due to lockdown, shortage of labour and devastating floods are some of the causes.

Chinese President launched a campaign to stop food wastage

Recently, the Chinese President had termed the wastage of food in China as ‘shocking’ and ‘distressing’. In August this year, he launched a campaign in the country called ‘Operation Empty Plate’. The campaign was first launched in 2013 to target big feasts organised by Chinese officials. Now, the campaign has been extended to the public. The Chinese President had asked people to prevent wastage of food and eat frugally. He did not mention anything about food shortage and instead claimed that the country had a ‘bumper harvest’.

As part of the campaign, restaurants in China started adopting special measures to stop wastage of food. The catering association in Wuhan, where Covid-19 reportedly started, was started in which the number of portions that one could order in restaurants was limited. The association wrote open letters to restaurants to be mindful of the amount of food that they served.

The ‘N-1 Model’ to stop food wastage

A new rule, called the ‘n-1 model’ was created which limited the number of portions of food served in group dining. This means that if food was ordered for a group of 5 people in a restaurant, only 4 portions of food would be served. As part of the campaign, the Chinese government removed videos showing people eating large quantities of food quickly as the government felt that the videos encouraged food wastage. Some restaurants in the country had reportedly started asking customers to weigh themselves before ordering food but the practice was discontinued after backlash.

The Chinese media have reportedly been denying food shortage saying that the quality of being careful with money or resources especially avoiding wastage was a part of Chinese culture. There were also reports of massive harvest in China.

China’s corn shortage

In the month of September, there were reports that prices of corn had surged in China as the country was heading towards a shortage of corn in the upcoming 2020/2021 season. According to reports, the country could face a deficit of up to 30 million tonnes which makes around 10 per cent of the total produce. The country was reportedly planning to import corn to satisfy its demand.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby kiranA » 04 Dec 2020 04:55

There are two major issues to consider.

1) The general mindset of indian farmer and his relation to land
2) Specific problem in Punjab/Haryana

Now the first one. Farming in india is not just some economic profession to be given lectures on profit/msp etc but it is also a caste - it varies by state but there are clearly farming castes. A farmer in india was allowed only to do the brutal job of tilling the land in blazing sun of india. He was never allowed to take up more leisurely/lucrative job of trading on their produce other than just selling his own. He may have produced that Prasad in temple by backbreaking work but was never considered "pure" enough to be a priest of the same temple (Sikhism in a way is a protest on it). In bengal famine where British bought all of the bengal agri produce for their soldiers thereby engineering a famine there they were assisted by Marwari traders who hunted farmers individually and negotiated low ball rates taking advantage of their illiteracy. (Now with this bill the govt wants to give "freedom" to corporates to do the same with no MSP or anything stopping them.). If a farmer ever become rich it was only by acquiring more land that means another farmer had to become poor for one to get rich. Nevertheless he continued to till and produce food.

Now in this mahaul where a farmer was screwed around by bureaucrat, trader, ruler etc the only thing he could solidly depend on was his land and his skill to grow his crops. This created what appears to be an irrational love or desire to cling on to land but makes sense if seen on this perspective. This is why when Modi personally says MSP will be there they are not going to believe - they want in writing. And they will never believe in corporate farming (years and years of land leases or price controls) and will never put themselves in a position where they can be hired or fired or price controlled by a corporate bania.

In a more civilized society where one son becomes a farmer, another trader and another priest or bureaucrat one can give these lectures on economics. But it will NEVER cut it in india as long as castes are there.

Now with this background lets go to second issue.

In Punjab/Haryana the govt in delhi engineered a massive revolution due to the "shame" it had for importing food from abroad in 60s. In the name of food security vast lands of Punjab/Haryana were incentivized to grow only the grains of wheat and paddy (not really suited for those lands). Essentially they were made in to food factories to restore indian govt "pride" (it could always have imported cheaper). The punjabi and haryana jatt farmer responded to the call of the govt. In return MSP was instituted and this worked well till 90s until profits from farming dried (no matter what those "stats" show - no farmer in india will say there are profits to be made in rice/wheat). Prior to 90s Some farmers indeed got prosperous and a few became industrialists.

But after 90s profits evaporated, unsustainable farming of paddy means lands started to become unproductive. The prestige of punjabi/haryana jatt farmer too went down - he was unable to create jobs in farms leave alone more productive jobs with capital from farms. Also the extreme pride in land ownership(refer to 1 above) resulted in massive land prices and clashes with other castes giving them a notorious image.

But why this did not happen say in andhra atleast to this extent ? In andhra farmers never took up farming wheat or non-native crops . In addition there is no pressure of vegetarianism in andhra as it is far from north. This enabled them to diversify in to poultry, fish, prawns on a massive scale, even leaving land for pasture for goats easing the pressure on land. In andhra too paddy is highly dependent on MSP without which it will not be profitable.

The eventual solution is to incentivize Punjab farmers to go in to protein production and diversify in general. This is not easy. And until that happens and their future is secured they have every right to demand these protections.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 04 Dec 2020 05:16

kiranA wrote:
In a more civilized society where one son becomes a farmer, another trader and another priest or bureaucrat one can give these lectures on economics. But it will NEVER cut it in india as long as castes are there.



I personally know several villages where grandfather's generation were farmers, father's generation either went to army, became teachers, doctors etc and the sons and daughters are trying to make it big through youtube or churning out their punjabi rap videos.

The whole "can't do anything cuz castes" logic couldn't have been farther from truth. Besides, I though the castes were limited to hindus, why are the sikh farmers protesting then?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Kaivalya » 04 Dec 2020 05:45

kiranA wrote:There are two major issues to consider.

1) The general mindset of indian farmer and his relation to land
2) Specific problem in Punjab/Haryana



Sir - google chacha disagrees with your " vegetarianism in the north, castes in punjab care about land ownership" etc. Theory.

Here you go, different states north and south produce different kinds of meat https://mofpi.nic.in/sites/default/files/OpportunityinMeat/PoultrysectorinIndia.pdf

Sometimes I wonder even BRF folks say something like " indians suffer from "caste" that is why they cannot win Olympic gold medals"

Edit - Added a better source
Last edited by Kaivalya on 04 Dec 2020 05:59, edited 1 time in total.

Suraj
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 04 Dec 2020 05:47

The claim that the MSP is being impacted without any consultation is a mischaracterization , and one that even ManSingh is implying .

The MSP is not related in any way or form to the farm acts . The MSP continues to exist in exactly the same form as it did previously . All thats happened is a ‘fear’ that it could change. Fears are neither rational nor logical .

The reason for this fear is that the APMCs are being diluted. This is a Punjab and to a lesser extent Haryana specific problem . It is not a ‘farmer problem’ .

The FCI currently holds 3 years worth of cereals as buffer stock . That is laughably high when it also procures at 40% premium over market . Sorry this gravy train needs to end . Yes t is incredibly costly to the taxpayer when the open market is doing a much better job at price discovery .

These claims of a ‘sudden change’ are a lie . The bills have been in the works for at least 2 years now, and the opposition themselves have proposed the same thing in their last election manifesto . As chetak states, the problem is not the suddenness . The problem is that no one is prepared to believe this administrations force of will to do things .

There are statements from Raghuram Rajan from 7 years ago stating almost exactly the letter of these farm bills . What were all these farmers doing all these years ? Be honest - you bet that the government would not have the balls to actually promulgate the laws that have been talked about for years . That is a bet you lost . It has nothing to do with ‘suddenness’.

An honest appraisal would own up to ones own failures to be aware that these refoms have been mooted for years , and that nothing was done during that time . When no such ownership of personal failure exists, it’s hard to hold much sympathy for the arguments for sunset periods. Sure sunset periods are reasonable, but what has the farmer done to prepare despite these laws being actively considered for years ? Serious question.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 06:32

another early morning whatsapp forward

many articles in various papers and news magazines seem to confirm this.


Thanks to FCI, punjab's farm subsidy is higher than annual income for farmers in rest of country! Those saying farmers will get hit if MSP stopped don't realize 90% of all crops are sold without MSP even today.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 04 Dec 2020 06:38

Suraj wrote:"The FCI currently holds 3 years worth of cereals as buffer stock . That is laughably high when it also procures at 40% premium over market"


Suraj
This might be misconstrued as that FCI is holding 3 years worth of produce. It is only 3 times what FCI has bee mandated to keep as Buffer Stock which is around 20 odd million tonnes. FCI is currently holding around 60 million tonnes.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby hnair » 04 Dec 2020 07:00

chetak wrote:another early morning whatsapp forward

many articles in various papers and news magazines seem to confirm this.



chetak, please post URLs to such articles, not what came in through WhatsApp! Don’t want this forum to be a non-referencable WhatsApp dumping point. We usually search for articles almost 20 years back hear because of links posters provide and these snippets don’t help

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 07:07

hnair wrote:
chetak wrote:another early morning whatsapp forward

many articles in various papers and news magazines seem to confirm this.



chetak, please post URLs to such articles, not what came in through WhatsApp! Don’t want this forum to be a non-referencable WhatsApp dumping point. We usually search for articles almost 20 years back hear because of links posters provide and these snippets don’t help


was searching for it, here goes


Punjab farm subsidy higher than annual income for farmers in rest of country!


Punjab farm subsidy higher than annual income for farmers in rest of country!

Sunil Jain
Dec 02, 2020

In response to a question on whether the new laws should be amended to say private traders will have to pay at least the MSP for all crops – this is a demand the Congress party has been making – Rajan does say “if you have set an MSP, by all means enforce it where you can”.

One of the reasons why Punjab grows so much wheat and rice, in turn, is linked to this FCI benevolence and very large subsidies, both now and in the past when government investment gave it the country’s best road and irrigation network.

When an economist of the calibre of former RBI Governor Raghuram Rajan joins the issue of the new farm laws (https://bit.ly/39zmd3i) and suggests all is not okay, it does seem like a good idea to re-evaluate them. It is true Rajan doesn’t make too many categorical assertions in his interview to journalist Barkha Dutt and when he talks of farmers being pushed into the hands of “conglomerate buyers, multinationals” – who will squeeze them, it is blithely assumed – once the mandis have been finished off (another assumption), he does say this is an argument made by those opposed to the new laws.

Yet, the fact that he repeats the assertion that the mandis will die once there is competition to them after the new farm laws kick in does suggest that he is, at the very least, sympathetic to this view; never mind there is little evidence from other sectors to suggest that existing markets die when new ones are also allowed to increase competition. The state and central governments, of course, need to ensure the new markets work by giving them land, low-cost loans etc.

And in response to a question on whether the new laws should be amended to say private traders will have to pay at least the MSP for all crops – this is a demand the Congress party has been making – Rajan does say “if you have set an MSP, by all means enforce it where you can”. That, in a nutshell, is really the point Punjab’s agitating farmers are making.

The problem with the argument that farmers will be pushed into the hands of evil traders once the MSP system is finished off – for the record, the news laws are not even diluting MSP – is that it ignores the reality of just how limited the whole MSP system is right now. Less than 10% of all crops are today sold at the MSP to government procurement agencies, so if the majority of farmers are selling to private traders even today, it is difficult to argue a catastrophe is around the corner if the MSP system goes; that is why the agitation is really limited to states like Punjab.

Two, there is a much higher growth in the output of fruits and vegetables or milk than there is for cereals like wheat and rice; it does seem unlikely the output would be growing so fast – 3-5 times that of cereals according to agriculture expert Ashok Gulati – if traders and ‘conglomerate buyers, multinationals’ were squeezing the farmers in the manner being described. That, in fact, is the reason why Punjab’s farm growth has plummeted to 1.9% per year since 2005-06 while that of the rest of the country is a much higher 3.5%.

It is also important to keep in mind that, while no states are protesting against this, the current system is hopelessly biased towards a few states like Punjab and Haryana; Punjab accounts for 13% of the country’s rice and wheat crop, yet 26% of what FCI procures is from the state. Indeed, one of the reasons why Punjab grows so much wheat and rice, in turn, is linked to this FCI benevolence and very large subsidies, both now and in the past when government investment gave it the country’s best road and irrigation network.


While the state’s farmers already get Rs 13,275 crore of electricity and fertiliser subsidy, the FCI system adds a considerable amount to this as well. FCI had around 42 million tonnes of extra wheat and rice stocks in June, and since it costs a lot of money to carry this stock – given the high price of purchase, liquidating it is difficult – this is an implicit subsidy to the farmer. According to FCI data, the economic cost of wheat is Rs 2,684 per quintal and Rs 3,727 for rice. From this, reduce the cost of purchase – Rs 2,221for wheat and Rs 3,163 for rice – since this is not being borne every year for the old stocks that FCI has. Multiply this number by FCI’s excess stock that can be attributed to Punjab; since 26% of FCI’s procurement comes from Punjab, the same ratio can be applied to the excess stock.


Based on this, it turns out, Punjab’s farmers get an additional Rs 5,600 crore of subsidy. Add this to the fertilizer and electricity subsidy and you get an annual subsidy of Rs 18,875 crore; divide this by the 1.09 million farming households the state has and, it turns out, each household gets an annual subsidy of Rs 173,165.

Yes, as State Bank of India’s October Ecowrap pointed out, according to the NAFIS survey of FY17 put it, the average annual household for all agricultural households in the state was Rs 107,000; while this would have grown in the past four years, the short point is that the subsidy the Punjab farmer gets is much higher than what farmers earn in the rest of the country!


To get back to Rajan’s argument on trying to ensure all farmers are paid the MSP, it is clear private traders will not pay this as it is not a market-clearing price; on average, mandi prices are 20-50% lower than the MSP for most crops. In which case, the government – FCI? – will need to step in to buy all the crops. And if the government is paying higher than market prices for 23 crops, why shouldn’t this be extended to fruits and vegetables or milk etc? Essentially, this is a slippery slope and, from the point of view of the fiscal impact, the costs can run into lakhs of crore rupees. By agitating in the manner they have, Punjab’s farmers have only highlighted how pampered they are since the same facilities clearly cannot be given to other farmers across the country. Whether their holding the capital hostage makes the government blink remains to be seen.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 07:23

Chinese President Xi Jinping has launched 'Operation Empty Plate' - and asked people to stop wasting food. China's crops have been wiped out by mass flooding. With food prices on the rise - is China staring at a food crisis? Palki Sharma Upadhyay tells you more.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VweUFkw ... e=youtu.be


Gravitas: Is China running out of food




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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 07:52

Suraj wrote:The claim that the MSP is being impacted without any consultation is a mischaracterization , and one that even ManSingh is implying .

The MSP is not related in any way or form to the farm acts . The MSP continues to exist in exactly the same form as it did previously . All thats happened is a ‘fear’ that it could change. Fears are neither rational nor logical .

The reason for this fear is that the APMCs are being diluted. This is a Punjab and to a lesser extent Haryana specific problem . It is not a ‘farmer problem’ .

The FCI currently holds 3 years worth of cereals as buffer stock . That is laughably high when it also procures at 40% premium over market . Sorry this gravy train needs to end . Yes t is incredibly costly to the taxpayer when the open market is doing a much better job at price discovery .

These claims of a ‘sudden change’ are a lie . The bills have been in the works for at least 2 years now, and the opposition themselves have proposed the same thing in their last election manifesto . As chetak states, the problem is not the suddenness . The problem is that no one is prepared to believe this administrations force of will to do things .

There are statements from Raghuram Rajan from 7 years ago stating almost exactly the letter of these farm bills . What were all these farmers doing all these years ? Be honest - you bet that the government would not have the balls to actually promulgate the laws that have been talked about for years . That is a bet you lost . It has nothing to do with ‘suddenness’.

An honest appraisal would own up to ones own failures to be aware that these refoms have been mooted for years , and that nothing was done during that time . When no such ownership of personal failure exists, it’s hard to hold much sympathy for the arguments for sunset periods. Sure sunset periods are reasonable, but what has the farmer done to prepare despite these laws being actively considered for years ? Serious question.


Here is your answer:

kiranA wrote:
Now in this mahaul where a farmer was screwed around by bureaucrat, trader, ruler etc the only thing he could solidly depend on was his land and his skill to grow his crops. This created what appears to be an irrational love or desire to cling on to land but makes sense if seen on this perspective. This is why when Modi personally says MSP will be there they are not going to believe - they want in writing. And they will never believe in corporate farming (years and years of land leases or price controls) and will never put themselves in a position where they can be hired or fired or price controlled by a corporate bania.



Courtesy KiranA

Let me expand that a bit. Here is how government initiatives in breaking the wheat-rice crop cycle have played out:

1) BT Cotton - Great sell-out to a large global agricultural firm. Worked well a few years till the crop was decimated across India. Forced to switch back to native varieties.

2) Kinnow/Oranges: First took years to reach maturity. Then five years of consecutive losses.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/punjab/huge-losses-area-under-kinnow-in-punjab-dips-16-on-lower-prices-for-growers/story-BUlu3M1iXQ2M6suIFF54gM.html

3) Same story for poplar/eucalyptus etc.

There is a reason there is a deep mistrust of the government.

- Notices of discussion/not sudden: Actually this is true. It was not sudden. The bills were opposed when first introduced in June. There was a big pushback. No response or you could call it tone-deaf. In September when the bills were introduced, there was a siege across Punjab, no response. Afterwards Hardip Puri was sent as an interlocutor. No progress either, hence the protest. If Raghuram Rajan wanted to introduce the same 7 years ago, response would have been the same.

- If we have to sell in the open markets, we should be allowed to export right? If the prices will fall from MSP price to a commodities futures based pricing, then export would be competitive, right? Fair play - Farmer's will not be thrown the patriotism gauntlet in the future in the name of food security? Will this be accepted? Read below for why I ask about this.

- Why is hoarding of crops permitted by these bills? Previously hoarding was thought to be a major cause of price rise, correct? For ex: The fall of BJP government in New Delhi due to onion prices. What has changed now?

- Why are legal options restricted by these bills? If farming is to be contractual going forward and priced as per market, why is legal recourse restricted to SDM? Which other commercial disputes are handled at an SDM level? What experience does an IAS have in resolving commercial disputes.

The reason for asking exports to be permitted is that farmers are not at the mercy of corporate leases/farming. Frankly speaking, if someone believes farmers from Punjab/Haryana will ever agree to their produce being priced by a corporate house, you really need a reality check. It will never happen. Just imagine a purchasing manager pricing wheat at 1050 vs 1100 because futures price fell the the previous day. I am very curious to see that happen.

I understand where you are coming from when you ask about what a farmer has done to prepare himself? The response is how do you prepare yourself, when you are forced/encouraged to be on a very narrow course of economic activity and still only barely survive? There is no trust in the government because there has been no positive impact after all these years. Even MSP was only a partial success out of a much larger economic report.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 04 Dec 2020 08:53

The response is how do you prepare yourself, when you are forced/encouraged to be on a very narrow course of economic activity and still only barely survive?

Consumer consumption is quite high in Panjab and Haryana rural areas. Please look at numbers for white goods, cars, pukka houses etc This is not 'barely surviving'.

I hope you don't find this impertinent but good quality drugs, imported maal etc, requires a good deal of disposable income.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 08:56

Democracy always equals/has always equalled the rule of the majority. Check in any part of the world.

Thats why elections are held. There are winners and losers and winners do not pimp for the losers under some misguided sense of electoral compassion or mercy.

This has always been the way since the times of the ancient greeks.

did we not see what the minority did during shaheenbagh, what amarinder singh did opposing the CAA and then started weeping corcodile tears for the sikhs from afghanistan because his patta was being cut. Are these the people who are to be mollycoddled.

There is nothing like majoritarianism, it is the play of democracy as a construct that has been hard won at the hustings and the rightful use of the same to administer the country.

To stupidly claim that all points of view are to be mandatorily accommodated is to live in a utopian world of social impracticality, deceit and moral duplicity. to pander to the minority which insists that they will not give you any consideration ever but they will always demand of the majority that it give them rights that even the majority themselves do not have.

In the 70 years post independence, the majority cannot teach its own religion to its kids because of some bugger all idea of sickularism and it has no control over its schools or temples or the unfettered rights to its own civilizational heritage

the minority, never defined so far in the Indian constitution, has been given unfettered rights at the cost of the majority.

their temples have been fraudulently captured, donated money from temples is misused by the govt of the day with impunity and for purposes that are an anathema to the people who contributed it for the welfare of their communities. non Hindus are administering our richest temples and appropriating moneys piously contributed by the Hindus for their own purposes.

no such inconveniences are visited on the minorities and yet ideologically corrupted communities scream majoritarianism when what they actually mean is that you do not have the right to f(uk us the way we have f(uked you over the past 7 decades and for centuries before that and now, the Indian constitution helps us to do it.

people should get off their high horses and smell the coffee. :mrgreen:

There is a new sheriff in town.

He is systematically hunting down every forgotten and rigged playing field and is legally levelling it with gusto.

what's not to like about this "wrongs being righted" approach.

he is pandering to none, appeasing no particular group and yet many woke sekoolaratti and liberalatti are stupendously outraged because they are not being selectively catered to as was being habitually done in the past.

It is high time that democracy means the same to majority and minority.

BTW, how does anyone use the abstraction of democracy when it has to forcibly accommodate the concept of the minority. Especially when the so called minority have the identical genetic make up of the majority.

no where in the world is minority defined as it is selectively understood and weaponized in India

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby dsreedhar » 04 Dec 2020 09:14

Is there any limit to the amount for tax-free agriculture income? If not, why not?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 09:20

dsreedhar wrote:Is there any limit to the amount for tax-free agriculture income? If not, why not?


some privileged princesses from dynastic political families are declaring 50 crore agricultural incomes per annum and that goes tax free.

there are others who are even more blatant.

this is how the politicos have set up the loopholes to benefit themselves. :mrgreen:

any agricultural income above 15 lakhs per family per annum should be taxed.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 09:24

dsreedhar wrote:Is there any limit to the amount for tax-free agriculture income? If not, why not?


The question you asked has not been opposed by farmers. It is the politicians who had a clever way of laundering money by showing it as agricultural income.

An additional question to be asked is why co-op banks were not under the purview of RBI. It has been already done a few months ago.

https://indianexpress.com/article/india/bill-to-bring-co-op-banks-under-rbi-purview-gets-nod-oppn-says-brazen-assault-6606894/

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 09:56

chetak wrote:
Suraj wrote:This entire argument about needing time to negotiate or comment is fallacious.

You cannot compare MSP with anything that is a statutory legal act, which includes the GST. The MSP is not and has never ever been a law.

Neither the MSP nor even 'procurement' as a mechanism is described anywhere in any farm bill. The farm bills themselves came out of proposals by the Parliamentary Standing Committee on Agriculture. They went through the standard procedures on public readings of bills.

This thread has a great breakdown of how procurement costs of wheat have strained FCI to the point of crisis, all funded by the Indian taxpayer:
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 6780926976


discussions on this matter have been ongoing for 2-3 decades.

just like in the case of Art 370, no one ever thought that someone would bell the cat.

not only has the cat been belled, it has also been sliced and diced, skinned, cooked and booked and that's got to hurt.

before this fiasco, very few in India had even heard of the word arhtiyas.

this hits at the congis and NCP and their house nigger arhtiyas in the most fundamental way and cuts off their deep rooted patronage system at the very knees.

for these two parties and their politically connected army of arhtiyas or commission agents, it is an existential issue.

if amarinder cries "security issues" and "economic destabilization of punjab", as he is doing today, president's rule will become a viable reality/option and will follow fairly swiftly.

the congis themselves are quite wary of amarinder and he will be replaced by a suitably pliant proxy sooner than later by the mafia famiglia.

punjab has many large politically connected farmer families with farming as well as middleman/arhtiyas interests and these guys rule all the punjab mandis with an iron hand.

Anyway, however which way one may slice it, punjab farmers have no right at all to monopolize the MSP procurement process. There are other states producing much better quality and a larger quantity of rice and wheat crop than punjab's farmers do and these farmers do not do stubble burning to try to coerce and blackmail the center for more subsidises and nor do the farmers in other states get the lavish subsidies that are given so easily to the farmer in punjab.

stubble is what is left in the ground after the combine harvester is done with the harvesting. It is 40 cms in length. This is what is being wantonly burnt so that the resultant clamor forces the center to pay to the farmer remove it.

Earlier bulls were used to plough this into the ground and also to turn the soil for the next crop.

now all those poor bulls have met their 72s and the rich punjab farmer wants more money to handle the stubble. He wants the already screwed taxpayer to foot his bills as usual.

water, electricity and fertilizer equate to national resources and must be equitably shared and fairly distributed as also the MSP procurement setup should be divided to benefit farmers in all other states too.

what the protesting farmers are effectively saying is that: "we, the farmers of punjab" are more equal than others and insist on that privilege of primacy being maintained for ever by law that we demand be enacted in our favor only. baki, bhad me jaye.

Farm Reforms are the SAME BIG BANG REFORMS that were on table for over 25 years. The farm laws enacted are just and fair to all farmers.

Also, it was in the manifesto of the two main national parties so enough discussions have already taken place with special interest groups including farmers groups/unions.

best for the mandi parasite politicos and their conjoined arhtiyas symbiotic ecosystem to bite the bullet and move on.

After all, they have all had a damn good run while it lasted.


I tried ignoring this but since it is so very wrong on so many counts, allow me to poke some holes:

1) As long as you get the farmer a fair price, no one cares what happens to an Arthiya. Not even me. Farmers are not protesting to save arthiyas.

2) Stubble is not burnt to provoke others. Mechanization produces more stubble than traditional harvesting techniques. There is no use of paddy stubble as fodder etc. and it takes time to rot. In Punjab there is a law which prohibits sowing of paddy to around 1 week before expected arrival of monsoon. This is to conserve water and reduce load on the electricity network which would otherwise have been in case tube wells were the only source of irrigation for paddy. This works around to somewhere close to 15th July.
Due to late sowing of paddy, when it is harvested there is no time left to let it naturally rot which takes more than a month. The fields have to be readied for the next crop.

Let me ask you a counter question, why does there need to be a frequent loan waiver program for agriculture if open market system is good at finding a fair price?

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sanjaykumar » 04 Dec 2020 10:00

Panjab ranks 12 on per capita income, Haryana an incredible 5, the highest of any but mini states or UTs.

I don’t think these rankings reflect farmers. The Haryana numbers may be skewed by the urbanisation around Delhi.

At any rate, the point is the rural Bihari or fellow from deep odisha is subsidising farmers who are not subsistence farmers by any metric. By opportunity cost if nothing else.

Of course the endemic corruption meant that all were happy swilling the manna in the pig trough. While chanting self sufficiency. Only the present administration seems it has the integrity to break the nexus.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 10:16

sanjaykumar wrote:Panjab ranks 12 on per capita income, Haryana an incredible 5, the highest of any but mini states or UTs.

I don’t think these rankings reflect farmers. The Haryana numbers may be skewed by the urbanisation around Delhi.

At any rate, the point is the rural Bihari or fellow from deep odisha is subsidising farmers who are not subsistence farmers by any metric. By opportunity cost if nothing else.

Of course the endemic corruption meant that all were happy swilling the manna in the pig trough. While chanting self sufficiency. Only the present administration seems it has the integrity to break the nexus.


and the new farm laws will help rural bihari/deep odisha fellow, how? He is already subject to a market economy, right ( and probably stuck in a rut )?

The only thing going to happen by further shrinking MSP based procurement is to reduce the price paid for procurement in PB, Haryana, Western U.P. and parts of Rajasthan. Reducing price is a great strategy at reducing supply in the market which is what the other twitter thread was hinting was the main goal ( FCI at brink of breakdown ). Hopefully we will not emulate China and reduce supply too much.

However it does put a lot of suppliers ( agriculturalists ) out of business since they know nothing else in a very near term ( a couple of years?? ). If fiscal stability is a goal, it works. Social cohesion/contract can take a walk.

By contract ( as I have repeatedly pointed earlier too ), I meant the excesses that were guaranteed in order to end endemic famine and lack of food.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vimal » 04 Dec 2020 10:23

Since this is also politics thread, what impact politically will the farm bill have on the next elections in Punjab. I'm guessing Congress will win just like it did last time and no change in equation at national level.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 04 Dec 2020 10:26

ManSingh: That post by kiranA offers no answers at all . Among other things it mentions nonsense about vegetarianism . If your argument is that the government should offer the MSP in writing, you can see that the rest of the forum does not agree with you, because subsidizing the Punjabi farmer costs the rest of the country money.

Please quote the specific sections of the bill in question where farmers are restricted from crop futures trading . I’m serious. You can find the three bills in full on PRSIndia:
https://www.prsindia.org/billtrack/farm ... -bill-2020
https://www.prsindia.org/billtrack/farm ... -bill-2020
https://www.prsindia.org/billtrack/esse ... -bill-2020
Please point out the sections of these bills that address your concerns about trading restrictions.

You argue that the discussion on the bills dates from June (2020). In reality APMC reforms have been discussed for close to a decade, and both the BJP and Congress manifestos describe plans to pass the bills that were passed.

The bills were passed in parliament. No bill ever gets passed unanimously. It gets voted on and passed by the requisite majority. If you consider parliamentary opposition as proof of a problem, you’re claiming that pretty much every bill every passed by parliament is wrong. He incumbent government works with the composition of the Lok Sabha it has. You’re literally blaming the system for functioning exactly the way it functions. If a larger opposition is needed, they literally have to win elections and gain seats first. The constitution does not offer participation certificates.

The reality of the future is that farming will become corporatized. India has simply too many people working on farms, and Punjab has artificially high farm employment subsidized by the rest of the country. The change may be painful to you but until you change the cost of subsidizing your lifestyle is painful to the rest of the country.

Vague threats about social stability are just language that is unwilling to accept that the present system is unsustainable, and change will never happen from one situation to another completely ideal situation. Given the approach towards change you’re demonstrating, then if a transition period of 5 years is given, what’s the guarantee than most farmer will not ignore it for 4 years and 9 months, then spend 3 months protesting for an extension ?

The answer is there is no guarantee. Given the lack of willingness to keep up with years of public discussion on APMC reforms (it’s been mentioned in the economy thread at least 15 years ago), there’s no reason to believe any farmer will adhere to a transition period. That’s the reality - change is going to come about only when there’s no alternative. Human nature causes procrastination otherwise.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Jarita » 04 Dec 2020 10:27

Things have become much worse with the Punjab border with this person as CM. Such a blatant honey trap and no one has done anything about it.

https://theprint.in/opinion/when-attack ... le/103060/

Aroosa Alam is a well-accepted hostess in Chandigarh, where she spends considerable time, as the chief minister’s long-term partner from across the border. I was seated next to the lovely lady at a lit fest in Kasauli a few years ago when she was there to attend Amarinder Singh’s high-profile book launch (‘The People’s Maharaja’) in the presence of an elite audience, which included authors and friends from Pakistan


Interestingly, her mother, who was popularly known as ‘General Rani’, and often described as the ‘most powerful woman in Pakistan’ for being the “muse and mistress” of Yahya Khan, had left her six children and husband to better run the country!


https://www.sikhsangat.com/index.php?/t ... h-exposed/

She joined SAFMA, a media NGO working in India -Pakistan and other SAARC countries after that she was elected senior Vice president of Rawalpindi Islamabad Press Club. She had good relations with the then Indian Ambassador in Pakistan, Shiv Shankar Menon and due to the influence with Menon, she got a multi entry special visa of India. That is a rare privilege for a Pakistani journalist. Menon is now secretary foreign affairs of India.


Both sides of the borders, SAFMA members have been considered suspicious links with hostile and archrival intelligence communities of India and Pakistan. Asoora reportedly has close ties with top brass of ISI, a source in Lahore said.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby nandakumar » 04 Dec 2020 10:28

[quote="Suraj"]
"The FCI currently holds 3 years worth of cereals as buffer stock . That is laughably high when it also procures at 40% premium over market"
Suraj
This might be misconstrued as that FCI is holding 3 years worth of produce. It is only 3 times what FCI has bee mandated to keep as Buffer Stock which is around 20 odd million tonnes. FCI is currently holding around 60 million tonnes.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 04 Dec 2020 10:32

nandakumar: that is from the Twitter thread I posted earlier. Not fact checked though..

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby ManSingh » 04 Dec 2020 10:32

vimal wrote:Since this is also politics thread, what impact politically will the farm bill have on the next elections in Punjab. I'm guessing Congress will win just like it did last time and no change in equation at national level.


Let's see the outlook:

1) Akali Dal: Extremely negative. Urbanites mostly hated them always. Rural Punjab currently considers Badal's enemy no. 1.

2) BJP: Urbanites will vote for them. Rural voters dicey. Never had huge support anyway. Rest depends on how the current situation is handled. Could slightly increase vote count in rural segment if current situation is handled carefully and they are able to get Sikh faces to contest independent of the Akali's.

3) Congress: Standard vote bank in Punjab. Should be able to keep existing vote bank and those that migrated from the Akali's. Could be competing against AAP in some pockets as main rivals.

4) AAP: Strength should increase especially in Malwa belt. Candidate selection will play a role though. Will not be enough to overcome congress though.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby m_saini » 04 Dec 2020 10:46

Let me ask you a counter question, why does there need to be a frequent loan waiver program for agriculture if open market system is good at finding a fair price?


Why does Kejri doles out free electricity to delhi residents?

Votes.

And I'm 100% on board with farmers being allowed to export. But if what's being said is true, that farmers are barely making ends meet even with an artificially inflated MSP, then how will they compete in the international markets where the prices are even lower? Do also keep in mind that no gov will give free electricity either if you're going to sell to amrekis or cheenis.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 11:10

farmers everywhere must get a fair price.

not only one state hyping up its farmers saying that they deserve to benefit more or one state monopolizing the MSP gravy train leaving almost nothing for others.

at the end of the day, every farmer in India wears a turban, albeit in different shapes, to protect against the sun and does the same noble job, so do not discriminate.

Honor all or honor none. Help all or help none.

There are no children of lesser gods among the farmers of any state unless other farmers attempt to monopolize the attention and usurp primacy in some mistaken belief that they are the best. Other state farmers produce better quality and more grain without the massive subsidy and ready built infrastructure.

one finds it discriminatory that these protesting punjab farmers did not bother to invite farmers from other states but arrogantly presumed to speak for all without even consulting any of them.

even after all these days, farmers in other states are quiet, except for some commie/naxal type alleged "farmer" trouble makers.
Last edited by chetak on 04 Dec 2020 11:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby AshishA » 04 Dec 2020 11:14

Looks like BJP is making significant headway in Telangana. BJP is leading in 85 seats in GHMC.

Suraj
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Suraj » 04 Dec 2020 11:28

Farm Bills: A watershed for agriculture?
The debates around the Bills have unfortunately been reduced to only two issues; MSP and APMC mandis. As a result, critics are demanding a rollback of the Bills and inclusion of legal provisions ensuring MSP for farmers.

However, it is unlikely that farmers will get remunerative prices even if the government announce MSP for private players. The farmers’ distress is deep-rooted and is a result of multiple policy failures over the decades.

Multiple rounds of NSS survey as well as the NITI Aayog study conducted in 2015-16, showcase that MSP awareness remains low and the regime favours only a small proportion of farmers (6 per cent) and has been largely unavailable to the majority of the small and marginal farmer (94 per cent). The disaggregated data at the crop level reveal that the MSP awareness stands at around 17 per cent and 18 per cent for rabi and kharif crops, respectively.

Image

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby OmkarC » 04 Dec 2020 12:39

AshishA wrote:Looks like BJP is making significant headway in Telangana. BJP is leading in 85 seats in GHMC.


I will wait until the final rounds.. there was a massive increase in voting % in the last 2 hours of polling - there is suspicion its by TRS/MIM folks.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 13:11

AshishA wrote:Looks like BJP is making significant headway in Telangana. BJP is leading in 85 seats in GHMC.


that was a transient phase when only the postal ballots were being counted.

A different trend and another set of numbers is now beginning to emerge.

One would be advised to wait a few hours to see anything concrete appearing in terms of final results tally.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby Sachin » 04 Dec 2020 14:02

chetak wrote:One would be advised to wait a few hours to see anything concrete appearing in terms of final results tally.

As per latest 'secular' reports, TRS is leading closely followed by AIMIM.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 14:06

Sachin wrote:
chetak wrote:One would be advised to wait a few hours to see anything concrete appearing in terms of final results tally.

As per latest 'secular' reports, TRS is leading closely followed by AIMIM.


even if the BJP wins 20 odd seats, it has proven its point.

the last time around it had won a mere 4 seats.

and, if the congis are wiped out, it's a bonus.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 14:56

BJP: 40
TRS: 67
AIMIM: 33
CONG: 3

Total Seats: 143/150

schinnas
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby schinnas » 04 Dec 2020 16:21

Congratulations to BJP for emerging as the opposition party. If election was not held immediately after a long weekend, BJP would have done better. It didnt help that upper middle class voters of BJP were Covid afraid and didnt vote.

chetak
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby chetak » 04 Dec 2020 17:27

BJP: 35
TRS: 72
AIMIM: 40
CONGRESS: 3
OTHERS: 0

Total Seats: 150/150

counting may not have been completed yet.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby vijayk » 04 Dec 2020 20:23

Looks final will be

TRS: 56
BJP: 49
MIM: 42
INC: 2

srin
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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby srin » 04 Dec 2020 20:32

I'm so amazed that the BIF have such a control over MSM. Don't read if you have high BP. I'm happy about some of the comments, though.

India’s Leading Documentary Filmmaker Has a Warning

Anand Patwardhan spent decades tracking the rise of Hindu nationalism. And now, under an increasingly repressive government, he holds his screenings in secret.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby isubodh » 04 Dec 2020 20:40

m_saini wrote:And I'm 100% on board with farmers being allowed to export. But if what's being said is true, that farmers are barely making ends meet even with an artificially inflated MSP, then how will they compete in the international markets where the prices are even lower? Do also keep in mind that no gov will give free electricity either if you're going to sell to amrekis or cheenis.


With subsidy in electricity, fertilizer, seeds and MSP + Rs.6000/per year is not enough to make farming profitable. Something terribly wrong. Not to mention cost of so many agriculture and related institutes.
Also the subsidized schooling and PDS.

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Re: 2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

Postby sajo » 04 Dec 2020 20:58

BJP got a royal drubbing in the recently concluded MLC Polls in Maharashtra, losing all but 1 of the 6 seats.


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