2020 Strategic and Political Analysis-1

tandav · Post by **tandav** » 05 Dec 2020 19:47

All I understand so far from the discussion is 1) Farming can only provide employment to ~10% of India's population, beyond this level the economics simply do not work out. 2) So far there is a massive subsidy to keep farmers in farming. 3) Better may be create food security by launching a nationwide Akshay Patra system that promises free food to all comers in return for some infrastructure building services.

It is also very true it is the hard work of Indian farmers that has made India self sufficient in food, however the food produced is not reaching the hungry effectively. New method of wealth generation by moving people into agro industries and value added products is required

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 05 Dec 2020 19:49

https://www.opindia.com/2020/12/rajasth ... farm-laws/
Farmers from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh extend their support to new farm laws, say they are getting more price and incurring less cost
The farmers said that contrary to the apprehensions, the new agriculture laws are in farmers' interest.

Farmers in Rajasthan have also not joined the protests that are swelling around Delhi by the protesters from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. In the report by TV9 Bharatvarsh, a farmer from Rajasthan profusely thanked PM Modi for bringing in the new agriculture laws that have lifted restrictions on the farmers and enabled them to sell their produce to the choice of their customer and their preferred rates.

Congress politicians instigating ignorant farmers against the Agriculture laws: MP and Rajasthan farmers
Speaking on the ongoing protests by farmers in Punjab, Haryana and other states, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan farmers said that the protesters have been fooled by the Congress politicians into protesting against the new farm laws. They also added that contrary to the apprehensions harboured by them, the new agriculture laws are in farmers’ interest.

“We are not protesting against the farm bills because they are meant for our welfare. Those demonstrating against the agriculture laws are not aware of the benefits and the new opportunities it unlocks for the farmers. They have been tricked and instigated by the opposition politicians to launch an agitation against the Centre,” a farmer interviewed by the TV9 Bharatvarsh said.

syam · Post by **syam** » 05 Dec 2020 19:59

For BJP to grow further in Telugu states, they need effective pr campaign against cbn and his fanatics. Without it, bjp will keep hitting unexpected road blocks every time. cbn somehow managed to brainwash large chunk of telugu folks against bjp and modiji.

Without exposing that double forked snake, will be hard for bjp in telugu states.

Ambar · Post by **Ambar** » 05 Dec 2020 20:50

Damned if you do and damned if you don't situation for the government. Bring in no reforms and the farmers point towards farmer suicides, indebtedness , lack of market demand etc. bring in reforms and then you risk your metros burnt , threats of terrorism and violence against one community. Everyday you read and hear about small traders and industrialists commit suicides but there is no tracking the numbers, there is no data collection to analyze the root cause and there are no electoral promises to write off their debt. How many banks do we know that succeed in taking over farms over debt collection Vs shutting down shops/factories ? If 70 yrs of increasing subsidies , forgiving debts, giving subsidized water and electricity and purchasing at above market price has not helped, then maybe it is time to look at other options which is what the government tried to do.

All these years the farmers were seeking better access to markets to sell their surplus, they blamed the draconian ECA for not getting a good price for their surplus and now that the government wants to loosen the essential commodities act, the complaint is that it will encourage hoarding !

Secondly, arm twisting private buyers into paying a floor price of MSP is not only against the spirit of the bill but is also unnecessary. For one, the government has clearly said MSP is not going anywhere & the govt. has no plans of reducing procurement for PDS. Second, when over 90% of the total agricultural produce in the country and 75% of farming families in the country do not benefit from MSP, then setting MSP as the floor across the board will not only bankrupt the government (which already spends 2.5 lakh crores on MSP) but also take the already double digit food inflation (aggregated over 10 yrs) to much higher.

What are the lesson learnt from the fall out of these bills ? a. The opposition will continue to instigate violent agitation against the government and the country no matter what bill it is - it was Pakistan zindabad during CAA protests, and Khalistan zindabad during farm bill protests, bring in NRC and i bet it will be Jindabada Bangla. So if you are going to bring in any bills have a clear communication plan and also clear plan to deal with violent protestors. b. In a country like India where you can so easily instigate people, hire few thousands to riot on a dime, it maybe better to do certain things within administrative framework quietly. Equally distribute the MSP by purchasing these commodities from states by their produce, add additional incentives to farmers in very poor states like W.Bengal and Orissa who are not only marginalized but don't even have a collective political power like the Punjabi farmers to ask for anything from the government let alone blockade Delhi. c. Let states make more of these decisions . For ex : Let Punjab government be the primary procurer of what is produced in their state and let them resell to the center or to the private market.

In all this the suffering of one section of the society never reduces and i.e. the middle class. If you were paying Rs35 for a kilo of dal in 2008, you are paying around Rs140 today. Rice which was Rs18/kilo is today ~Rs65 ,ghee which was < Rs 120/lt is anywhere between Rs500 to Rs 600 today, sugar which was Rs18 in 2008 is Rs40 today. The government's fictional inflation rate aside, nobody gets food for free, and if farmers can benefit from some of this food hyperinflation by either selling directly to consumer or selling directly to traders bypassing the APMC goons then it should be welcomed.

Jarita · Post by **Jarita** » 05 Dec 2020 21:04

Expect opposition to any and every structural move made by this government. India anyway has no choice. Farming needed these reforms desperately. Punjab is fast becoming a desert because of these distortions, forget about the cancer trains and pollution. Expect every move to be opposed by those who don't want India to become a stable civilization.
Like Halahala this poison emerges each time this ocean is churned. It is inevitable. And like Halahala the collective sanatana nation and it's leadership has to swallow this for the civilization to emerge.

sanjayc · Post by **sanjayc** » 05 Dec 2020 21:22

^^ Half of India's problems will go away if Congress party dies. Congress was created by British as a party of loyalists who were then used by them to take on Hindu nationalists on their behalf. Since then, this party has been hanging like a millstone around India's neck, preventing the economic growth of India and resurgence of Hindu civilization. In short, it is still following British agenda against Hindus and doesn't mind setting fire to the country if deprived of power. It has always been a party of Hindu mercenaries and opportunists.

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Dec 2020 21:31

I am not sure if there are problems with communication.

If as ManSinghji claims Panjab farmers are just getting by, it is legitimate to ask where the cars and homes and drugs are coming from? No apologies there.

The comment on Sikh farmers as peasants was to illustrate a point on framing arguments and civilised discourse. This Yograj Singh needs to tone it down. He also claims Sikhs sacked Delhi 18 times. I am too much of a gentleman to take that line further.

So I am a hypocrite for my crocodile tears for the Odisha farmer. My father studied by hurricane lantern in a dusty Panjab village. We are where we are not because the GOI gave him handouts taken from the people of India. So spare me sarcasm.

IndraD · Post by **IndraD** » 05 Dec 2020 21:42

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/ne ... 579392.cms
UN secretary general asks Modi to allow agitators to block roads and create ruckus in Delhi

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 05 Dec 2020 22:00

fanne wrote:Man Singh ji being on KiranA side of any argument is like agree with Bajwa or IKN on Indo-Pak issue

What exactly are you trying to say here??

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 05 Dec 2020 22:03

vijayk wrote:https://www.opindia.com/2020/12/rajasth ... farm-laws/
Farmers from Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh extend their support to new farm laws, say they are getting more price and incurring less cost
The farmers said that contrary to the apprehensions, the new agriculture laws are in farmers' interest.

Farmers in Rajasthan have also not joined the protests that are swelling around Delhi by the protesters from Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh. In the report by TV9 Bharatvarsh, a farmer from Rajasthan profusely thanked PM Modi for bringing in the new agriculture laws that have lifted restrictions on the farmers and enabled them to sell their produce to the choice of their customer and their preferred rates.

Congress politicians instigating ignorant farmers against the Agriculture laws: MP and Rajasthan farmers
Speaking on the ongoing protests by farmers in Punjab, Haryana and other states, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan farmers said that the protesters have been fooled by the Congress politicians into protesting against the new farm laws. They also added that contrary to the apprehensions harboured by them, the new agriculture laws are in farmers’ interest.

“We are not protesting against the farm bills because they are meant for our welfare. Those demonstrating against the agriculture laws are not aware of the benefits and the new opportunities it unlocks for the farmers. They have been tricked and instigated by the opposition politicians to launch an agitation against the Centre,” a farmer interviewed by the TV9 Bharatvarsh said.

Not sure the underlying assumptions are correct.

1. Tricked into protesting. Implies punjabi farmers are dumb and incapable of rationality.

2. Congress is leading the protested: could not be further from the truth.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 05 Dec 2020 22:08

Francois Gautier shared:

——————-

“I am still not clear about the issues involved in the Farmer's agitation. So, I asked a friend of mine, who besides engineering is a farmer from Abohar - Fazilka region of Punjab. Now, after retirement he is a full time farmer.
This is what he told me.
"I have been actively farming for almost two decades now and I have witnessed many things happen at APMC’s.

I have seen classifications of C grade grain miraculously change into B grade grain.

Similarly I have also witnessed the weigh bridge weigh in the empty truck at 39 tons and the full truck at 55 tons and later found that the unloaded truck weighed 43 tons at another weigh bridge.

Yes I know, you know what I know. Yet, let me tell you more about what you may already know.

There are over 30,000 registered adtiyas in Punjab.

These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub agents or sidekicks or people who wouldn’t have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000.

There are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab.

330,000 / 1500 is about 220 people on average per village doing the work of middlemen.

Why is this the case?

It’s a long story but someone needs to begin talking about this at some time.

We had a food shortage and a ship to mouth existence until the 1970’s.

Norman Borlaugh pioneered a variety of wheat which gave 10 X the yield but needed 3X the fertiliser.

The Punjab was chosen as the battleground against hunger. Enterprising Sikh farmers worked hard to Create what we know as the green revolution.

Since there were huge shortages. Laws were made which didn’t allow for stockholding or selling at farm gates.

Essential Commodities Act
APMC Act (farmers were compelled to sell only at APMC’s to licensed traders - remember license permit quota Raj?)

As an assurance to the farmer for his hard work. Minimum Support Prices were guaranteed.

No matter what the quantum. Sarkar would pick it up and provide farmers with a minimum amount as compensation per quintal or ton as the case maybe.

Getting money out of the sarkari treasury is a muck filled process. Thus was born the breed of middle men who walked the corridors of bureaucracy, government and worked corrupt sarkari babus.

political patronage networks flourished.

220 : 1 is the ratio of middlemen to a single village in Punjab today.

This business got integrated backwards.

Corruption was professionalised.

For instance, I have in my circle of influence or immediate family, folks who own very large tracts of land. (100 acre plus holding).

The thekedar comes and takes the theka of growing on the land. For those unfamiliar with the word, Theka it’s also referred to as contract. I know there are grumblings about corporates contracting with farmers directly now. I also know why. You should too.

Anyways; to cut a long story short.
Plenty Farmers do, not much except receive their due at the end of each cropping season.

What is grown?
What grade or quality?
For how much is it sold?
Would it have fetched the similar price in the open market?
Where is it sold?
How is it sold?
Who’s the end beneficiary?
Does anybody consume it or does it go to waste?
Was there a better way to do what’s being done?

All the above is none of my business or yours.

As long as you receive your cheque.
Why do you care?

The Jamkhedkar committee meanwhile reports that over 40% of the grain acquired under MSP by FCI is either unfit for consumption or is simply wasted.

All Told, One out of every Two kilos acquired is wasted.

Years of perfidy have today given birth to this.

MSP has ensured that there is no necessity to seek profitable enterprise.

It’s also given birth to the patronage networks which survive off the sarkari teat and refuse to breakaway.

It’s given rise to a political class which thrives and survives of being Specialist Corrupt Thugs.

There was no sunset clause on this. Nobody foresaw a time of surplus production on food grains.

Result; all other states such as Haryana, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan & MP all produce surfeits of Grain. They also have their own MSP mechanisms which have proliferated and created similar political patronage networks.

Since more is acquired at Mandis in Punjab. Remember the central government promise. Grain from UP and or Bihar also finds its ways into the mandi system of Punjab.

The trucks being under weight and over paid for and the grades changing are common place practise, you can go for a few days to the mandi and figure out how to make a killing by doing this. I don’t advise it, this is what the system is current day. I advise, Try doing truthful clean work. It’s more fulfilling.

Soon enough, you’ll also be one of those “know it all’s” in the mandi who doesn’t talk to others. After all information is power.

All this is paid for by you dear tax payer.

The annual bill for this is approximately 8 lakh crores.

Why don’t the farmers grow something else.
Something more profitable.

If I’m being paid for doing precisely nothing.

Why bother with competing.

Where is the incentive to compete?

I would rather go and picket the roads leading into Delhi to ensure that the existing system isn’t threatened."
Quite a racket ! What a shame.”

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 05 Dec 2020 22:32

Of course and it takes a foreign born Indian to make this explicit. Because corruption is a way of life in India.

srin · Post by **srin** » 05 Dec 2020 23:36

dsreedhar wrote:Is there any limit to the amount for tax-free agriculture income? If not, why not?

I've been thinking about this, and it appears to be more complex than I previously thought.

There are two types of direct taxes - one on gross income (like on salary), and one on net income (capital gains, or on net profit of corporations).
Agriculture is a mini business: there are expenses (seeds, fertilizers, extra labour during planting, harvest etc) and there are income (by selling produce).
So, it can't be taxed on the gross income, but needs to be taxed on net income. But that requires some good account keeping that may be beyond the scope of many of the farmers. The rich farmers just get a free ride out of this. That they have taken advantage of this is just something that nobody cares about (except the salaried middle class).

Of course, the political implications on taxing "poor farmers" is going to be pretty bad, so that's an extra reason.

Kaivalya · Post by **Kaivalya** » 05 Dec 2020 23:41

^^^

Eye opening ratio of 220:1

Francois Gautier can say it and thankfully social media picks it up (Pranams to him). Anyone else saying it will not be. Next to the Congress cancer, press needs to be ridden of cancer cells too. 20 to 30 years of unfettered FDI makes sure that there is no intellectual discourse in most of the media

https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/khush ... an-media-1

srin · Post by **srin** » 06 Dec 2020 00:00

Please read the entire twitter thread here. Has lot of stats
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 4103328770

We don't export wheat - international wheat prices are around $200 per quintal (Rs.1400) but MSP is around Rs. 1900
FCI has 3 years worth of production as buffer stocks !
The FCI is borrowing a colossal amount of money to fund the procurement, and the tax payers pay it.
70-80% of wheat sells at MSP in Punjab/Haryana. ROI: very less. UP is 11%, MP is 38%
The APMC taxes and levies is around 15% of the MSP, which brings the price to around Rs.1500, which is essentially the market rate in ROI !

dsreedhar · Post by **dsreedhar** » 06 Dec 2020 00:11

nvishal wrote: Indian farmers cannot compete with global farmers. This is one of the reasons why heavy subsidies exist. This system cannot sustain for long. We are at a stage where we need to change our system or collapse. If we don't invite private players into India's agricultural sector now(silos warehousing, marketing distribution etc), there will be no peace and no rest in the coming decades.

Well said.
Two generations back my paternal grandfather side were farmers in Telangana. Their kids moved to city and left the farming behind.
Stats based on available sources say today 41% of total employment is in agriculture, in 1990s it was 60%. So probably in 1960-70s it may have been close to 70%. Major part of country was in agriculture going a few decades back and 40-50% of them moved away from it since 60s. Others can do too. These comprise of todays working middle class in other areas who are concerned. Lets not complain people dont understand or care farmers' plights and play victimhood.

Today agriculture and farmers has become a big avenue of corruptions n politics for political class, ideological exploitation for leftists, communists, resulting in impediment of economic growth, development and also leading to constant strife, unrest and threat to nation. Farmers need to be brought out from the clutches of these rogues.
It worked fine for the rogues when majority Indians had no idea of how the world worked and whats going on outside India. But today Indians have enough exposure to the whole world and there is free access and availability of info.

Due respect and gratitude to Punjab farmers in the 60s that helped attain food security to the country. It is been two generations since. It is time to adapt to the new system and structures. There are more better and efficient ways to do things. There are new and different n dire needs in society. Those small time farmers who are truly in need of help should be supported by the govt in the transition.

I agree folks who study in IIT, NIT, AIIMS and other govt institutes need to serve in the country for a few years, but do provide a job security of a reasonable pay. There will be very few to oppose that.

Anyways it needs politics to handle these difficult issues. Here in BRF need to come up with ideas and solutions to this impasse. There can be give and take. Though farm bills is the right thing but may not be right time for full throttle and need to be phased?
The key is to keep continue support to the small time farmers in transition and hand hold them, but push the big-time farmers and exploiters. Maybe allow MSP only to small time farmers, limit the amount say Rs 10lakhs per farmer etc.

The long term goal is to cut down a significant section of population from agriculture, adopt more efficient ways in this field and bring agricultural income into tax net.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 06 Dec 2020 00:16

Kaivalya wrote:^^^

Eye opening ratio of 220:1

Francois Gautier can say it and thankfully social media picks it up (Pranams to him). Anyone else saying it will not be. Next to the Congress cancer, press needs to be ridden of cancer cells too. 20 to 30 years of unfettered FDI makes sure that there is no intellectual discourse in most of the media

https://www.slideshare.net/mobile/khush ... an-media-1

I have been saying this from long time. Middlemen in Punjab, Haryana,WEstern UP do not add any value to the product. They buy from farmers and pass it along without adding transportation cost, packaging, harvesting, etc. These middlemen must for forced to bear some cost like it is done in rest of the world.

disha · Post by **disha** » 06 Dec 2020 00:43

Make MSP a state subject. Let the state decide on how to support agriculture and its mandis locally. What Center should do is declare that each state will get so much of "subsidy". It could be used as input subsidy (fertilizers, pesticides) or output subsidy (MSP) or a hybrid of both. It is upto state to dole it out.

Also a sunset clause on subsidies. It has to slowly go down to the point where only input subsidy is provided for specific inputs. Like if you are doing organic farming, then the subsidy allows you to buy organic compost. Or if you get off the electric grid. Or if you put in drip irrigation system. Or if you are transitioning from a food crop to cash crop (like going from wheat to pomegranates).

For the current agitation, let the farmers in Delhi play it out for next months. Anyway they do not have stuff to do now. The crops for the next year have been sowed. Let this manthan continue till March-April. Government should go for weekly chai-biskoot. Let the MPs from fUK and the Union Territory of Kanucks come and do tourism in Poonjab.

In March-April, government should devolve the finances for farm subsidies to the states itself. It should be equitable. So UP/Bihar should get some farm subsidies. More if it is for right input. Less if it is for output.

All this bharat-bandh etc by the so-called "farmers" is useless. The commies will do what it wants to do. Create more strife. Best is to ignore it and move forward.

Only thing GOI must do is to use very soft gloves. Do not give the game away to commies.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 06 Dec 2020 01:15

Only in India Anarchist type protests where they stop all commerce transportation on roads, trains is allowed. In any other western countries or USA/Canada these farmers would be rounded up and jailed for trying to do this.

Congress, AAP and Communists are now trying anarchist methods to discredit BJP.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Dec 2020 01:16

These passionate arguments about the importance of farmers by ManSingh and kiranA add very little to the discussion on the farm bills. Fundamentally, such arguments are no different from the armed forces saying they’re special because they put their lives on the line for us.

Farming is by some distance the least liberal sector of the economy. This is historically the case worldwide. Even the US and Canada have farm subsidies, even just with 2 percent of population engaged in farming.

There’s an expectation that reforms implement perfection on day 1. This has never been true of any reform. What’s the point of “all this reform talk and onion prices still get controlled” ? Plenty of GST whining on the economy thread three years since. That argument is fundamentally invalid - reforms aren’t bad because some other thing hasn’t yet been reformed effectively. The insolvency and bankruptcy code has been revised multiple times - and that is considered a good act in its original form.

In fact the opposite is true - if reforms can be accomplished without people having crocodile tears about onions, it makes further reforms easier. You want more reforms ? Your opposition to current reforms is counterproductive.

A lot of acts gets updated once promulgated. That’s because no one can predict how well it works in reality. Amendments improve procedure and remove workarounds.

If your argument is ‘I oppose the farm bill because it doesn’t fix (insert other stuff). Fix it and reintroduce utter perfection’, you are being intellectually dishonest. No law or reform ever got done that way. These farm laws were the manifesto items of both the ruling and opposition parties, and were recommended by the famously talkative ex RBI governor.

Arguments about social stability are as nice as armed forces threatening “increase our pay or else we will mutiny and take over New Delhi”. Threatening your own countrymen who’ve themselves faced difficult change isn’t going to gain you any sympathy.

Yes Punjab was at the vanguard of the Green Revolution. More than two generations of high productivity. Consistently near the top of state per capital income charts. All of these should ideally drive a dramatic reduction in per capita involvement in agriculture, massive mechanization and movement to secondary and tertiary business. What instead seems to have happened is a state and galaxy of middlemen whose cut comes from a small number of folks actually farming.

It’s been pointed out that a large number of claims about the bill are misunderstandings or propagated falsehoods. There’s practically no interest in reading and explaining why a certain section of one of the bills needs improvement. This forum isn’t a place to virtually sit on the floor chanting slogans. If you’re going to basically ignore a request to dissect the bills and help the forum understand why any section needs work, you’re not going to accomplish anything.

Suraj · Post by **Suraj** » 06 Dec 2020 01:20

disha: I think a better argument is that the procurement price should be set by agency. FCI maintains season wise data on procurement, for example wheat and rice:
wheat
rice

FCI can set its own procurement price and state can do the same. All can compete against the open market. Farmers should be able to go into forward contracts that give them money upfront to spend in input costs.

Nothing in the current bills prevent any of this - scanning the bills and news shows nothing. Please point me to where it says farmers cannot do something like this,

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Dec 2020 04:24

seems apt for the "protesting" farmers who want the farm laws to be repealed.

Farmers don't feed the nation, we feed them by buying more grain than we can eat and let it rot in FCI godowns. Or in the case of Punjab buy it for more than it's worth and then sell it back at 1/3rd price to the CMs family to turn into alcohol in their factories.

via@shirishthorat

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 Dec 2020 05:29

https://www.financialexpress.com/opinio ... s/2140159/
This is about politics, not farmer rights

Punjab’s farmers are the most pampered in India, yet their productivity is falling; in any case, MSPs not being phased out

Given how India appears to revere its farmers (annadata), the popular narrative around the current Punjab farm agitation is that the Narendra Modi government passed the farm laws in a hurry, and without any real discussion, so it is not surprising ‘poor’ farmers – who helped make India self-sufficient in foodgrains – are up in arms in the capital. If the agitating farmers believe MSP-based procurement will be abolished, it is because, the argument goes, the haughty Modi government never really engaged with them; just explain the facts to the farmers and, the belief is, they will quietly go home.

While a larger discussion on anything is a good idea, does anyone really believe any reforms can easily be passed when a party doesn’t have a majority in both houses of Parliament. As an aside, did Dr Manmohan Singh first discuss his 1991 reforms threadbare or did he just announce them? It is also worth keeping in mind APMC reforms have been discussed for decades. Indeed, the first successful attempt at APMC reform, to allow farmers to sell fruits and vegetables in non-APMC mandis in various Congress-ruled states, was done in 2013, when Dr Singh was the prime minister in a UPA regime; the reasons for this were the same as now, to give farmers more choice in whom they sold to and where. Nor is it clear that if the Modi government laws are so anti-farmer, why haven’t those from other states joined the agitation.

And while it is important to acknowledge Punjab and Haryana’s role in providing India food security during the green revolution days, large government expenditure in building a road and irrigation network – Punjab has amongst the best road and irrigation networks in the country – played an equally big role as this reduced both market- and output-risks. Even today, with fertilizer and electricity subsidies (this is borne by the state) at over Rs 13,000 crore a year, each farming household in the state gets Rs 120,000 of sops apart from what FCI spends on buying wheat and rice far in excess of what it needs or the interest subvention by the central government or even the real cost of the water used for farming.

A related issue is that of the damage to Punjab’s soil due to it growing water-guzzling crops; most of the land in the state is ‘over-exploited’ and overuse of urea has also lowered the fertility of the soil. Were the same kind of money – especially the guaranteed offtake by FCI or other procurement agencies – spent in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, not only would this transform their economies, it would also reduce India’s water consumption since some of these states also require a lot less water for surface irrigation for the same crop.

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 Dec 2020 05:41

disha wrote:Make MSP a state subject. Let the state decide on how to support agriculture and its mandis locally. What Center should do is declare that each state will get so much of "subsidy". It could be used as input subsidy (fertilizers, pesticides) or output subsidy (MSP) or a hybrid of both. It is upto state to dole it out.

Also a sunset clause on subsidies. It has to slowly go down to the point where only input subsidy is provided for specific inputs. Like if you are doing organic farming, then the subsidy allows you to buy organic compost. Or if you get off the electric grid. Or if you put in drip irrigation system. Or if you are transitioning from a food crop to cash crop (like going from wheat to pomegranates).

For the current agitation, let the farmers in Delhi play it out for next months. Anyway they do not have stuff to do now. The crops for the next year have been sowed. Let this manthan continue till March-April. Government should go for weekly chai-biskoot. Let the MPs from fUK and the Union Territory of Kanucks come and do tourism in Poonjab.

In March-April, government should devolve the finances for farm subsidies to the states itself. It should be equitable. So UP/Bihar should get some farm subsidies. More if it is for right input. Less if it is for output.

All this bharat-bandh etc by the so-called "farmers" is useless. The commies will do what it wants to do. Create more strife. Best is to ignore it and move forward.

Only thing GOI must do is to use very soft gloves. Do not give the game away to commies.

Prof. Gulati suggests decentralizing the MSP and involve states or start a stabilization fund and help them to transition from wheat/rice to some other crops

vijayk · Post by **vijayk** » 06 Dec 2020 06:07

https://indianexpress.com/article/citie ... s-7074468/

Maharashtra: FPCs in 4 districts make over Rs 10 crore in out-of-mandi trade since new farm laws
In the last three months, MahaFPC, the umbrella body of farmer producing companies (FPC) in Maharashtra, estimates that since the laws were enacted in September, FPCs in four districts have made worth Rs 10 crore from trade outside mandis.

Even as farmers, mostly from Punjab and Haryana, proceed to the national capital to protest the new agriculture laws, soybean farmers in Maharashtra have benefited from them to get more out of APMC deals. In the last three months, MahaFPC, the umbrella body of farmer producing companies (FPC) in Maharashtra, estimates that since the laws were enacted in September, FPCs in four districts have made worth Rs 10 crore from trade outside mandis.

Since September, FPCs have recorded an increased trade interest from edible oil solvent and extractors and animal feed manufacturers for directly procuring from their farmers. For farmers, this meant savings in terms of transportation cost while companies benefited by not having to pay for mandi cess.

In the last three months, 19 FPCs, mainly in Marathwada, have recorded 2,693.588 tonne out-of-mandi trade with companies. Out of these, 13 FPCs in Latur have alone supplied 2,165.863 tonne mainly to ADM Agro Industries Private Ltd. Similarly, four FPCs in Osmanabad supplied 412.327 tonne and one FPC each in Hingoli and Nanded have supplied 96.618 tonne and 18.78 tonne oilseed to companies.

SBajwa · Post by **SBajwa** » 06 Dec 2020 06:16

sanjaykumar · Post by **sanjaykumar** » 06 Dec 2020 06:35

A related issue is that of the damage to Punjab’s soil due to it growing water-guzzling crops; most of the land in the state is ‘over-exploited’ and overuse of urea has also lowered the fertility of the soil. Were the same kind of money – especially the guaranteed offtake by FCI or other procurement agencies – spent in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, not only would this transform their economies, it would also reduce India’s water consumption since some of these states also require a lot less water for surface irrigation for the same crop.

No Shite Sherlock, somebody figured it out.

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 06 Dec 2020 08:38

Are the protesters mostly actual farmers or is some significant proportion of them the middlemen who don’t add value?

disha · Post by **disha** » 06 Dec 2020 08:44

KLNMurthy wrote:Are the protesters mostly actual farmers or is some significant proportion of them the middlemen who don’t add value?

The protestors are land owners who have given out their land for tenant farming. Since the crop is sown for the next season, the land owning "farmers" who have given it out to tenant farming are doing the next best thing. Trying to buy insurance for their crops. Since in Mar-April, they will take the crop and if their tenant farmers directly sell their produce outside of the corrupt mandis, how will they get to take money out of the output subsidy?

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 06 Dec 2020 08:51

this is where the "farmers" agitation is headed.

shaheenbagh-1 followed by shaheenbagh-2.

the next avatar, that one will be even worse.

so many off shore supporters for some piddly half baked "farmers" agitation in India, including the govt in canada, and many MPs in the uk , australia, and spokesperson for UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, all supporting the so called "right" of the Indian "farmer" to protest is unheard of.

something evil is brewing and the BIF are orchestrating it from the shadows

within the week, these "farmer" protests will metastasize into a national security issue

RVAIDYA2000@rvaidya2000·23h

Failure to recognize the so called farmer protest orchestrated by Naxals/Khalistanis is big for Govt--Let me repeat next is in TN with rump of LTTE/EVR virus jumping globally and then it will be RoP on a big scale supported by Turkey/Malaysia/Pak etc

Pre-emptive action needed

Vayutuvan · Post by **Vayutuvan** » 06 Dec 2020 08:51

sanjaykumar wrote: ...
No Shite Sherlock, somebody figured it out.

~~Could you please give a link to that para? Is it in Wikipedia or somewhere else?~~
Never mind. This is from the financial express article posted above.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 06 Dec 2020 08:53

srin wrote:Please read the entire twitter thread here. Has lot of stats
https://twitter.com/anuragsingh_as/stat ... 4103328770

We don't export wheat - international wheat prices are around $200 per quintal (Rs.1400) but MSP is around Rs. 1900
FCI has 3 years worth of production as buffer stocks !
The FCI is borrowing a colossal amount of money to fund the procurement, and the tax payers pay it.
70-80% of wheat sells at MSP in Punjab/Haryana. ROI: very less. UP is 11%, MP is 38%
The APMC taxes and levies is around 15% of the MSP, which brings the price to around Rs.1500, which is essentially the market rate in ROI !

"FCI has 3 years worth of production as buffer stocks !"
This is simply not true. The truth is FCI has 3 times the buffer norm stocks. The buffer stock is set at roughly 20-22 million tonnes. The current stock is 60 million tonnes.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 06 Dec 2020 09:30

Great results for BJP in the Hyderabad elections. Hopefully they will be able to sustain this momentum.

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 06 Dec 2020 09:30

vimal wrote:Francois Gautier shared:

——————-

“I am still not clear about the issues involved in the Farmer's agitation. So, I asked a friend of mine, who besides engineering is a farmer from Abohar - Fazilka region of Punjab. Now, after retirement he is a full time farmer.
This is what he told me.
"I have been actively farming for almost two decades now and I have witnessed many things happen at APMC’s.

I have seen classifications of C grade grain miraculously change into B grade grain.

Similarly I have also witnessed the weigh bridge weigh in the empty truck at 39 tons and the full truck at 55 tons and later found that the unloaded truck weighed 43 tons at another weigh bridge.

Yes I know, you know what I know. Yet, let me tell you more about what you may already know.

There are over 30,000 registered adtiyas in Punjab.

These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub agents or sidekicks or people who wouldn’t have made it into doing anything anyplace were it not for the patronage network of these 30,000.

There are only 1500 farming villages in Punjab.

330,000 / 1500 is about 220 people on average per village doing the work of middlemen.

Why is this the case?

It’s a long story but someone needs to begin talking about this at some time.

We had a food shortage and a ship to mouth existence until the 1970’s.

Norman Borlaugh pioneered a variety of wheat which gave 10 X the yield but needed 3X the fertiliser.

The Punjab was chosen as the battleground against hunger. Enterprising Sikh farmers worked hard to Create what we know as the green revolution.

Since there were huge shortages. Laws were made which didn’t allow for stockholding or selling at farm gates.

Essential Commodities Act
APMC Act (farmers were compelled to sell only at APMC’s to licensed traders - remember license permit quota Raj?)

As an assurance to the farmer for his hard work. Minimum Support Prices were guaranteed.

No matter what the quantum. Sarkar would pick it up and provide farmers with a minimum amount as compensation per quintal or ton as the case maybe.

Getting money out of the sarkari treasury is a muck filled process. Thus was born the breed of middle men who walked the corridors of bureaucracy, government and worked corrupt sarkari babus.

political patronage networks flourished.

220 : 1 is the ratio of middlemen to a single village in Punjab today.

This business got integrated backwards.

Corruption was professionalised.

For instance, I have in my circle of influence or immediate family, folks who own very large tracts of land. (100 acre plus holding).

The thekedar comes and takes the theka of growing on the land. For those unfamiliar with the word, Theka it’s also referred to as contract. I know there are grumblings about corporates contracting with farmers directly now. I also know why. You should too.

Anyways; to cut a long story short.
Plenty Farmers do, not much except receive their due at the end of each cropping season.

What is grown?
What grade or quality?
For how much is it sold?
Would it have fetched the similar price in the open market?
Where is it sold?
How is it sold?
Who’s the end beneficiary?
Does anybody consume it or does it go to waste?
Was there a better way to do what’s being done?

All the above is none of my business or yours.

As long as you receive your cheque.
Why do you care?

The Jamkhedkar committee meanwhile reports that over 40% of the grain acquired under MSP by FCI is either unfit for consumption or is simply wasted.

All Told, One out of every Two kilos acquired is wasted.

Years of perfidy have today given birth to this.

MSP has ensured that there is no necessity to seek profitable enterprise.

It’s also given birth to the patronage networks which survive off the sarkari teat and refuse to breakaway.

It’s given rise to a political class which thrives and survives of being Specialist Corrupt Thugs.

There was no sunset clause on this. Nobody foresaw a time of surplus production on food grains.

Result; all other states such as Haryana, UP, Bihar, Rajasthan & MP all produce surfeits of Grain. They also have their own MSP mechanisms which have proliferated and created similar political patronage networks.

Since more is acquired at Mandis in Punjab. Remember the central government promise. Grain from UP and or Bihar also finds its ways into the mandi system of Punjab.

The trucks being under weight and over paid for and the grades changing are common place practise, you can go for a few days to the mandi and figure out how to make a killing by doing this. I don’t advise it, this is what the system is current day. I advise, Try doing truthful clean work. It’s more fulfilling.

Soon enough, you’ll also be one of those “know it all’s” in the mandi who doesn’t talk to others. After all information is power.

All this is paid for by you dear tax payer.

The annual bill for this is approximately 8 lakh crores.

Why don’t the farmers grow something else.
Something more profitable.

If I’m being paid for doing precisely nothing.

Why bother with competing.

Where is the incentive to compete?

I would rather go and picket the roads leading into Delhi to ensure that the existing system isn’t threatened."
Quite a racket ! What a shame.”

I have never heard of this gentleman before. So I went digging a bit. Below is what wikipedia says:

"François Gautier is a journalist based in India who served as the South Asian correspondent for multiple reputed French-language dailies. He brings awareness to 'Hindu Holocaust' in medieval times and advocates for an Indigenous Aryan narrative."

So not a surprise where the biased reporting comes from. I never thought that it would come to this that a RW narrative requires it's own clone of Arundhati Roy to push their narrative. But I guess it is expected that natives need to be educated by foreigners who can string together a narrative that is cohesive. Personally, I think there is nothing wrong in that. But I will poke a few holes in the narrative ( read if you care, it's ok if you don't ).

- For the uninitiated, grading of crop grains is done by moisture level ( mainly ). There are other factors like % of broken grains, husk, length of grain etc. But mainly the price is affected by moisture level.

- Grade C to Grain B. When a farmer brings his grain to the mandi, he does not know what he will be graded. He does not know when the grading will take place. All he can do is bring his sacks of wheat/rice and wait for the inspection agent. A lot of times what happens, is that it rains while his produce is in the grain market ( been there, done that ). So due to no fault of his and due to inefficiencies of the procurement system, the farmer can some times suffer a great deal. What this article of yours is suggesting is that somehow the farmer's will get their grains graded to a higher level and get better paid. No, absolutely not. Will never happen. A government official will never do that else how will he make money. There might be other points in the system where lower grade grain is used to replace a stock of higher grade grain with the higher grade being sold in the open market. But this is at an institutional level and those who have worked in the Indian system know how it happens.

- There are over 30,000 registered adtiyas in Punjab. These 30,000 employ another 300,000 sub agents
Magic numbers pushed without attributing any source of such information.

- The Jamkhedkar committee meanwhile reports that over 40% of the grain acquired under MSP by FCI is either unfit for consumption or is simply wasted.

A google search provides no reference to any such committee. The only Jamdekhar committee that comes up is on "Archaeological surveys". I don't even know what to say unless archaeological department also takes care of agriculture. Strange times indeed.

- All Told, One out of every Two kilos acquired is wasted.
Seems like another nonsense being peddled. The only link I found is an FCI rebuttal to any such claims.
Read if you like: https://www.organiser.org/Encyc/2020/6/ ... rains.html

- Why don’t the farmers grow something else.
Something more profitable. If I’m being paid for doing precisely nothing.
Another gem. I have seen both worlds, the corporate grind ( consulting jobs ) and life of a farmer. Let me tell you, the corporate grind does not come close. It is both spirit and back breaking to wake up at 2 A.M. in the morning when temperature is sub-zero in January and walk in the darkness, put your feet in freezing water to irrigate your fields. So "paid for doing nothing" is a statement that is very far from the truth.

At the end of the day, every system has it's flaws and is broken to an extent. But the above does article of yours does not address anything on these farm bills. Sorry to be blunt, but your post was extremely ridiculous. You simply found false news to confirm your bias. This is very much like Faux news telling a certain section of the population what they want to hear.

Another thing: For personal growth it is very important to get rid of your confirmation biases and not live in an echo chamber. Though it is totally up to you, the below should be an interesting read:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/co ... 533857002/
https://www.wired.com/story/facebook-tw ... tion-bias/

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 06 Dec 2020 09:47

Suraj wrote:These passionate arguments about the importance of farmers by ManSingh and kiranA add very little to the discussion on the farm bills. Fundamentally, such arguments are no different from the armed forces saying they’re special because they put their lives on the line for us.

Farming is by some distance the least liberal sector of the economy. This is historically the case worldwide. Even the US and Canada have farm subsidies, even just with 2 percent of population engaged in farming.

There’s an expectation that reforms implement perfection on day 1. This has never been true of any reform. What’s the point of “all this reform talk and onion prices still get controlled” ? Plenty of GST whining on the economy thread three years since. That argument is fundamentally invalid - reforms aren’t bad because some other thing hasn’t yet been reformed effectively. The insolvency and bankruptcy code has been revised multiple times - and that is considered a good act in its original form.

In fact the opposite is true - if reforms can be accomplished without people having crocodile tears about onions, it makes further reforms easier. You want more reforms ? Your opposition to current reforms is counterproductive.

A lot of acts gets updated once promulgated. That’s because no one can predict how well it works in reality. Amendments improve procedure and remove workarounds.

If your argument is ‘I oppose the farm bill because it doesn’t fix (insert other stuff). Fix it and reintroduce utter perfection’, you are being intellectually dishonest. No law or reform ever got done that way. These farm laws were the manifesto items of both the ruling and opposition parties, and were recommended by the famously talkative ex RBI governor.

Arguments about social stability are as nice as armed forces threatening “increase our pay or else we will mutiny and take over New Delhi”. Threatening your own countrymen who’ve themselves faced difficult change isn’t going to gain you any sympathy.

Yes Punjab was at the vanguard of the Green Revolution. More than two generations of high productivity. Consistently near the top of state per capital income charts. All of these should ideally drive a dramatic reduction in per capita involvement in agriculture, massive mechanization and movement to secondary and tertiary business. What instead seems to have happened is a state and galaxy of middlemen whose cut comes from a small number of folks actually farming.

It’s been pointed out that a large number of claims about the bill are misunderstandings or propagated falsehoods. There’s practically no interest in reading and explaining why a certain section of one of the bills needs improvement. This forum isn’t a place to virtually sit on the floor chanting slogans. If you’re going to basically ignore a request to dissect the bills and help the forum understand why any section needs work, you’re not going to accomplish anything.

Suraj-san

See, the thing is whenever anything about the current government is questioned, a legion of warriors spring-up who seem to know everything about everything. Their belief is that they are defending an impeding attack on India ( though India has mostly a peasant army and a peasant CAPF to defend itself ).

Even on this forum, when the protests started, the narrative was that BIF, Khalistani's, paid foreign agents, 19th century peasants have come to mount an attack and capture power. It was very important that I contribute in whatever way I could slightly nudge the narrative.

If a majority of the posts on the forum now debate the farm bills on economic merits, sustainability etc, I am quite glad that it has come to this. It is possible to debate, negotiate a better deal when the focus is an economic grievance. When someone calls you a terrorist, how do you negotiate?

For other poster's, I apologize as I simply do not have the bandwidth to reply to every post. Please do seek independent sources with an open mind.

Kashi · Post by **Kashi** » 06 Dec 2020 09:49

ManSingh wrote:I have never heard of this gentleman before....

And I have a USP (unlimited support price) mandi to sell to you..

And the only link you found- quite conveniently- is chor.in?

It seems scrolling (see what I did there) through published literature is not your preference.

ManSinghJi, it would things much clearer if you could kindly be more specific with your thoughts and your demands.

ManSingh · Post by **ManSingh** » 06 Dec 2020 09:56

Kashi wrote:
ManSingh wrote:I have never heard of this gentleman before....

And I have a USP (unlimited support price) mandi to sell to you..

And the only link you found- quite conveniently- is chor.in?

It seems scrolling (see what I did there) through published literature is not your preference.

ManSinghJi, it would things much clearer if you could kindly be more specific with your thoughts and your demands.

Link updated. I don't think you bothered to open the previous link either. It was basically scroll.in publishing a rebuttal by FCI of it's own story on wastage of food grains.

As for trolling ( scrolling through published literature), let's just say that you do not know the person behind the screen name. For my thoughts, read my reply to Suraj's post.

srin · Post by **srin** » 06 Dec 2020 10:34

Curious on one question: Is the APMC going to be shut down ? Why can't the farmers who like the APMC so much sell there instead of availing the new freedoms ?

KL Dubey · Post by **KL Dubey** » 06 Dec 2020 10:37

^^"Man Singh": Give it a rest now. These are the growing pangs of Indian agroeconomy entering the modern age.

NaMo and Shah are miles ahead in this game. Even if they do not get a single vote from Punjab for the rest of their lives, it is of no consequence politically. Time to cut this corruption and drug ridden state to size. Farmers in all of India will prosper and vote solidly for NaMo in 2024. And game over for Badals. Two birds, one stone.

Next up is Thakre. ED, NIA, CBI all busy at work.

syam · Post by **syam** » 06 Dec 2020 11:10

KLNMurthy wrote:Are the protesters mostly actual farmers or is some significant proportion of them the middlemen who don’t add value?

Check their demands to the gov, murthy gaaru. 2 of the points are not at all related to farm bills. These farmers behaviour in the meeting is also another key point to analyse these farce protests. Zero comments on khalistani presence in protests. Abusing hindus. All these data points tell very different story.

Doesn't matter what the original truth/fact is. These 'farmers' will keep talking about the hurt inflicted by Modiji government.