India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

[Venkarl]

Guys,

Is this in our control?

https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

[Raveen]

If PAK gets involved, Uknil will get involved.

I find it far more plausible that Unkil gets involved with the Chino side only of its a two front war or if India suffers losses. They'll leave the Porki bacon for us.

[yensoy]

Guys,
Is this in our control?
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Yes looks like it.

It also seems that the Chinese are rather weak on the southern bank of Pangong Tso; maybe their belligerence on the northern side comes from a fear that we could walk into Spanggur and take back our land.

[Suresh S]

Magadha the seat and center of Hindu civilization has come back to life make no mistake.There is no India without Magadha at it,s center. Jai Hind

[ParGha]

The first military conflict between Indians and Chinese was in 7th Century AD, when a Chinese governor of Tibet & Nepal invaded Bihar in support of one of the successor-claimants of Harshavadana in a civil war (after Harsha's death and crumbling of his short-lived empire). And the Indian claim over Aksai Chin was established by Zorowar Singh, a Dogra general who had to fight the Tibetans and Chinese (both ruled by the Manchus/Qing).

Therefore, it is incorrect to say that the first contact was with Sikh policemen under the British, either in real history or a conveniently-amnesiac "modern history". There are important political, legal and military lessons to be learned from the real history, and it is stupid to clutter the forum with the lowest-common-denominator pop history. For all we care, they can see us as just another overgrown Pakistan... and we will see them just another overgrown North Korea. What matters is, what happens on the ground.

First is the absolute and paramount necessity of securing Nepal. Next is to develop India's own legal and religious case on the same precedents set by Wang Xance and Muhammad Bin Qasim in their invasions of India, and complete repudiation and rejection of Mr. Vajpayee's position on Tibet. Thirdly, establish Theater Commands and give local commanders the initiative and incentives to achieve the larger goals as the opportunity arises.

[Vips]

If PAK gets involved, Uknil will get involved.

Probably the easiest option for Uncle Sam to liberate Balochistan and Sindh to reduce moth eaten pakistan to land-locked status and Box-in china to be forever dependent on Malacca Straits.

[VikramS]

Assuming India will move away from strategic independence, the first step would be to get a detachment of aircraft with better stealth/sensors to help IAF. They don’t have to shoot but can help spring a surprise.

Also more precision ammo and guns if needed.

And get the Indian MIC churning!

[Venkarl]

Guys,
Is this in our control?
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Yes looks like it.

It also seems that the Chinese are rather weak on the southern bank of Pangong Tso; maybe their belligerence on the northern side comes from a fear that we could walk into Spanggur and take back our land.

This one?
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6752641 ... a=!3m1!1e3

I am trying to plot and label populous areas...

OT:
I am shocked to realize that I've been so close to Chinese post in 2014 when we went on ladakh ride.
https://goo.gl/maps/rTqHnu3HeRJK6L3x7

[vishvak]

..Pakis are trying to be treacherous smart as they are. By restricting PLA to PoK and GB bases - they can claim that they are not directly involved as China has done a deal with so-called 'Azad JnK' government in Skardu

Surely both pakis and Chinese are outed as treacherous neighbours if this news is true. In fact very much because fighter jets are not clubs with nails so effects of lagging in technology on Indians, courted with largesse during elections, is open now also.

[Sridhar K]

I had a dream last week where I am touring NE, Nagaland, Manipur etc. and there is a Chinese air attack on the NE states from across the Burmese airspace. Dog fights with Su30mKi taking out a few j10. Now rumuours of J10s in Skardu

Can we expect an attack from that side (Yunnan) where they will not have payload restrictions like Tibet and still not far off from Sikkim, AP borders though I understand our NE airspace is heavily gaurded.

[Larry Walker]

Guys,

Is this in our control?

https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Chinese camp is to the east of this position across the ridge line. Spanggur lake does not look like much defensible for the Chinese but then it also does not provide any tactical benefit as the terrain is not conducive for a quick dash to Sirijap from Spanggur.

[ldev]

I know the Chinese are phenomenal with civil engineering and road construction but how did they get tanks and artillery onto the Depsang Plains? A cursory look does not turn up any roads on their side of the LAC and G-219 is 80km-100 km away across difficult terrain.

The Depsang plain is one of the 2 areas in Ladakh-Aksai Hind that are flat enough for mechanised warfare (the other being Demchok).
You are right that getting to Depsang involves a 80-100 km movement from the G-219 across an unpaved road. However, the area along
the Chip Chap river is flat enough for a mechanised force to move towards DBO. Similarly the area north of Depsang La (east of Qizil Langar)
is flat, but involves a longer movement from the G-219. Our own armoured brigade can move a lot faster along the Murgo-DBO road.
At high altitudes, breakdowns of vehicles during long drives will be high, which will affect the Chinese more than us.

I remember the 2013 incident at the Chip Chap river when some PLA troops had run into an Indian patrol. There were pictures of the banner drill in progress. But at time the PLA troops only had army trucks with them. Since then the PLA has put into operation the Type 15 light tank, 35 tons, 105 mm gun but with a powerful 1000 hp diesel engine developed specially for Tibet operations. So I suppose the Type 15 is what they have deployed. What it lack's in armor they will want to gain via speed and agility. IAF Apaches will get their first taste of blood if something happens. 16 Hellfire missiles with a range of 6-11 km should knock out quite a few Type 15s.

But given the long distance on the river bed or unpaved makeshift roads that they have to travel on from G-219 to reach the Chip Chap river area near DBO, I think these deployments are more in the nature of trip wires for the PLA. In a serious confrontation they will be outgunned by the T-72s 125mm gun and the Apache's Hellfires and will be decimated. Unless the Chinese start building serious feeder roads from G219 to the DBO LAC and that will take some time.

[Aldonkar]

New Bridge in Galwan valley ..

https://twitter.com/MarkKumar3/status/1 ... 36/photo/1

I suggest it is named Col. Santosh Babu Bridge, or if that is not allowed after the 18th Bihar.

[Venkarl]

Guys,

Is this in our control?

https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

Chinese camp is to the east of this position across the ridge line. Spanggur lake does not look like much defensible for the Chinese but then it also does not provide any tactical benefit as the terrain is not conducive for a quick dash to Sirijap from Spanggur.

Thank you. Were you referring to this?

https://goo.gl/maps/hdjfT8JW95aWEjUq9

[abhik]

Guys,

Is this in our control?

https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6699167 ... a=!3m1!1e3

I think that is an Indian base, you can refer to Shiv's video on Pangong lake positions.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mKkD4Xga2HY&t=3s

[arshyam]

Thank you for taking the time and sharing these insights, RaviB-ji. Knowing what the Chinese think is a very important aspect of dealing with them, so any insights that cross the language barrier is always welcome. Please keep them coming!

4. Duplicitous They have always thought of Indians in this way, partly self-projection. Partly because they see the adversary in their own image. The idea of honor is completely alien to Chinese thought. Which means all this talk of India about honor or keeping its word must be a lie. Which means they are hiding something else. Sometimes, China is smart enough to see through India (and see whatever they wanted to see). Being honest is not something anyone places too much value on. In China it is every man for himself. They wouldn't think twice about cheating anyone and corruption (also within the PLA) is expected and only punished as part of a package deal, if someone also commits another crime like disloyalty to the party.

I can totally relate to this. I recently read a book called "China in Ten Words" by Yu Hua, where he takes ten different aspects of Chinese society and describes it as he sees it. He is somewhat brutally honest, and having grown up during the 70s, his insights into the Cultural Revolution were fascinating to read. Two of his later chapters dealt with duplicity and honesty. He called them "Copycat" and "Bamboozle". Basically, he was saying that in Chinese society, copying something outright and undercutting that (we see that in the way their companies have built themselves up) and cheating someone was also considered completely normal. In fact, he mentions his choice of the relatively harmless word bamboozle was deliberate, since cheating was considered to be harmless as long as no one got caught. Since there was no moral sanction against it, everyone indulged in it. After Deng's reforms, the extent of "bamboozling" only increased.

The overall sense I got was of a society that has a self-image rooted in its own isolationism and lacking a moral compass, perhaps due to that. The communists are merely the current overlords directing Chinese society, but the essential character of their society is unchanged.

[ks_sachin]

New Bridge in Galwan valley ..

https://twitter.com/MarkKumar3/status/1 ... 36/photo/1

I suggest it is named Col. Santosh Babu Bridge, or if that is not allowed after the 18th Bihar.

16 Bihar

[ParGha]

Aldonkar, that is allowed. In Siachen, India has Rajiv (after Lt Rajiv Pandey), Sonam (after Capt Sonam Kapadia), Bana (after Subedar Major Bana Singh, PVC), etc.

[Larry Walker]

Did any of the Paki 'Swift Retreat' packages take-off from Skardu ? If not - then why not ?

[arshyam]

https://twitter.com/Nrg8000/status/1274649983006855169

Nathan Ruser
@Nrg8000
Earlier I drew attention to 19 Chinese positions on Pangong-tso's Finger 4 ridgeline (line between Ind & Chn territory), I want to highlight (in 3D!) some pilboxes that have been constructed down a 330m path into the Indian side of that ridgeline.

This is the problem with relying too much on OSINT experts and giving full credence to what they say.

What he calls a "new Indian position" may have become observable with recent imagery (I am giving him some benefit of the doubt), but in reality, we always had a strong presence in this area. Nitin Gokhale's interview of Col S Dinny, who had served there a few years ago showed the Colonel's map that clearly called this out. He, in fact, called it a "base", as opposed to the ITBP "post" at the point our metalled road ends.

Click on this direct time link https://youtu.be/b30_ftMpwLI?t=308, or go to 5:08 elapsed in the video below and see for yourselves.

[RaviB]

Part 2 and conclusion of previous post

How China sees itself

• China is not a Communist country: It is a country ruled by a communist party, that's the extent of its communism. In some ways it is like Post-Soviet republics of the USSR with a hyper-capitalist, robber baron, crony capitalist oligarchy.
• It is a Han nation. All other minorities get to wear regional costumes like dressed up monkeys when the attend a few congresses in Beijing, but they are second class. This is seen in their repression of Tibetans and Uyghurs. Partly, they want to cilvilise (or make Han) these barbarians practicing strange religions, and stuck in the past.
• China is a modern civilised country (almost western). Think Meiji restoration Japan, think Singapore. See the CCP functionaries wearing western suits, with CCP badges.
• China is on its way to restoring its place as the centre of the world. The USA is an obstacle it will need to overcome for this.
• The CCP has the mandate of heaven. All Chinese emperors needed to have this, otherwise someone with the mandate would usurp their place. CCP is the current dynasty and Xi is the current emperor (for life). Everything becomes a lot clearer when China is seen in its imperial tradition.
• China is orderly and stable. At the moment. The typical condition of China over the past 200 years has been of disorder. The Taiping rebellion, civil war, cultural revolution, etc. So finally the CCP has brought order. Order is way more important than "freedom". Freedom is something they know from Hollywood, not really for China but maybe its worth visiting Disneyworld to see what it's like.
• China is corrupt to the core and the CCP is the heart of this corruption. This is something most people find terrible and all the protests and opposition are inevitably protests against corrupt petty functionaries. But to get rid of corruption, you have to get rid of the CCP and if you get rid of the CCP, China wouldn't function. At the moment corruption is not as ostentatious as before. People are keeping their heads down because Xi was collecting heads to stabilise his rule. Since everyone is corrupt, everyone was afraid of his anti-corruption drive.
• China is a merchant empire. The CCP to sustain its corruption needs heavy trade. If the size of the pie shrinks, there will be infighting. Which will weaken its hold.
• CCP has two enemies The Chinese People and the USA. The fall of the USSR has been the biggest nightmare of the CCP, and both these factors are thought to have played a role. The CCP spends a very substantial amount on internal security, according to some accounts as much as on external security.
• China has 3 classes: Peasants (the majority, who nowadays are usually migrant workers); the nouveau riche and the rulers CCP. All three are afraid of each other. The newly rich are happy, obedient and scared to lose what they have, send their children to study abroad and hope to migrate to USA; the worker/peasants are the ones who cause disturbances and are in terrible shape. The rulers are insanely rich, insanely corrupt and insanely paranoid, everyone has at least 2 different passports for their children, apart from the chinese one.

What is China doing in Ladakh?

Based on what I have written so far I think this is a mission to subdue the periphery. The army is on an expedition to pacify the frontier and punish the uppity kingdom on the periphery, India. Show them who's the boss and then return to the heartland.

This is also about warning India not to join an alliance with the USA. For us, this might sound ridiculous but when you read how the Chinese see us, it makes perfect sense that we will not ally ourselves with the USA after receiving this warning. Ideas like humiliation being bad for relations are alien to them (humility is a virtue, they are simply showing India its place). That we might have self-respect or might actually care about strategic autonomy or be protecting our own interests are simply incomprehensible and completely out of sync with how they see us.

Several people have tried to think of the current situation in terms of military strategy. That makes absolutely no sense. It is almost certainly not about protecting the Aksai Chin highway. Firstly the PLA is not too bright in terms of military tactics, for example having 200 trucks inside a gorge seems foolish even to a civilian like me. Secondly, the empire never expects trouble or attack inside its borders. I think maybe one or two junior officers in the PLA might entertain the thought of an Indian armored attack and prepare a report on that but I think that's inconceivable for the majority. Also practically, China has enough heavy lift capability and construction skills to have a replacement highway running very quickly.

For those suggesting more fantastic ideas like a shortcut to PoK over the Karakoram pass. The Karakoram Pass is the one point on the boundary that there is no conflict about. Secondly, the Karakoram Highway has nothing to do with the Karakoram Pass. The geography of the area makes it impossible to build a road. Thirdly even the KKH is more or less a gesture for Pakistan, nothing seriously economic about it. it is far away from the economic and population heartland of China. Pakistan is a model tributary state, so it is rewarded with favors like the CPEC. From at least 2013, I have been telling anyone who would listen that it's a big joke. Some Chinese companies will get to build stuff and make a lot of money, which will be shared through the hierarchy but trade with Pakistan over the KKH makes utterly, absolutely no sense.

The current conflict is for the average Chinese, out there in Timbuktu. Tibet is already like Antarctica inhabited by the savages for the majority of them. And then there is some fight with India, a country they have heard of. It's quite an exotic place, people dance all the time, they've seen Bollywood movies. That's why I think the idea of domestic messaging doesn't quite fly. Hong Kong is easy to crush, also sends out a message about the supremacy of the CCP and the futility of democracy protests, but Tibet, as far away as it can get? With a third rate country like India? They have a vague idea that it's full of poor people who dance but is there really glory in defeating their army? That's only to be expected surely. This has also created a headache for the CCP, did high-tech Han warriors actually get slaughtered by dirty Red Turbans? [This is currently a very popular question on Chinese social media, which is being asked indirectly in many different ways].


Lessons for India

• Conflict with China is inevitable. So we must make sure we find the right time and place for it. It will not be a total war. Total war is too unpredictable and might cut into the CCPs earnings.
• Localised conflict is feasible and manageable Tibet is not worth much to the CCP. Of course a dynasty never allows its size to be reduced, but if Lhasa or Amdo or any city in Tibet or Xinjiang were destroyed, the CCP wouldn't even blink. But the CCP will at no costs see even the smallest threat to the heartland (south-west China). So escalation won't proceed beyond a certain step on the ladder
• Any war will be about temporary deterrence and not permanent victory. When we give them a bloody nose, they'll leave us alone for 30 years. But then we'll have to fight them again
• Diplomacy is about delay and obfuscation, not resolution. Talking helps pass the time until its time for military conflict. Any promises aren't worth the toilet paper they are written on. A loophole will be found as and when necessary.
• It's not Sun Tzu (Sun Zi) who's relevant to Chinese military strategy but Weiqi. I find it a bit ridiculous because The Art of War is quite elliptical and can be interpreted as one wishes. I haven't read it myself and I'm convinced most people who quote it haven't either. What Chinese Generals were also mesmerised by was the Gulf War 1. That and RMA have very much shaped their understanding of how the next war (with USA) will be fought.
• They will be hopeless at mountain warfare From everything I read, their strategy seems to be one of overwhelming the enemy. Send 2000 soldiers, 200 tanks, 500 trucks and 20 bulldozers to scare 200 enemy soldiers. This strategy might work on Tiananmen Square (as it indeed did) but not in the mountains. I don't know anything about weapons systems but I have a suspicion networked warfare is not really the best way to fight in the mountains. Massed forces are also probably not the best idea in Ladakh (perhaps with the exception of Depsang)
• This might make me sound like a Pakistani, but the Chinese have nothing to even remotely match the Indian soldier's spirit. I just tried to think of how many of my Chinese acquaintances might be willing to die for their country and I honestly can't think of a single one. In case of India obviously I have family, friends, neighbors, one doesn't need more than 5 seconds to think of 10 people. The Chinese spirit comes from Han superiority and fear of their officers, especially the political officers. This means they are ripe for desertion, and if there are non-Han soldiers they can probably be used to create disorder within their armies. The han superiority also makes them afraid of barbarians. They are always scared by people with heavy beards and scary mustaches.
• their lack of democracy means they are very brittle against information warfare. I had posted earlier how Chinese social media was relying on the messaging of the new Baba Banaras twitter account. All their news came from Indian media. If we can spread some fake videos or pics of mutilated Chinese soldiers, that will not enrage but scare them. It will perfectly fit their image of savage barbarians and the modern Chinese population is all up for CGI warfare but not to see skulls crushed with rocks.
• The planning is done by Generals, approved by Beijing, and then flows down to the soldiers. This system lacks innovation and probably won't be very flexible on the ground. Though it may very well lead to brilliant strategy in the case of experienced generals, the tactics will probably be shoddy and predictable.
• We should try to understand them and how they see us and take advantage of it. We must also be willing to adapt to their working style, which might mean giving up on values like honour and truth. We always feel betrayed by them because they act differently to our expectations. When we understand their worldview, we will be the ones taking advantage of them.
• What CCP does not want is a widespread front and protracted warfare. Traditionally such pacification exercises (Ladakh, but also Xinjiang and Tibet) were conducted in order to free the empire for more important work (like confronting the USA). We will know we have won this round when General Zhao is recalled to Beijing.

[darshan]

Centre Plans To Deploy 20 Additional Companies Of ITBP Troopers Along India-China Border
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/centre-pl ... ina-border

[Deans]

Centre Plans To Deploy 20 Additional Companies Of ITBP Troopers Along India-China Border
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/centre-pl ... ina-border

WTF for ? An extra Army division would me more appropriate.

[arshyam]

OT:
I am shocked to realize that I've been so close to Chinese post in 2014 when we went on ladakh ride.
https://goo.gl/maps/rTqHnu3HeRJK6L3x7

Interesting saar - so was there some sort of crossing point identifying the LAC?

Also, any idea what this structure to the west of your shared location was (https://goo.gl/maps/Q7kpqZQ7R2Sb4WRu6)? Not sure if it was constructed back then (looks fairly new), but any details you could share would be useful for us to build a picture. I was always under the impression that the entire Spanggur lake area was under Chinese control, but looks like we have a toehold.

[Deans]

A request to those of you here who have read my book - `2022, India's two front war'.
Though a hardcore military read meant mainly for enthusiasts, such as this forum, sales are picking up due to the current situation.
Royalties from the book go to our army battle casualties fund.

There is a guy I've clashed with on another forum - possibly Pakistani, who has trashed the book in a review on Amazon.in While the occasional bad review is a fact of life, this is my only bad one and done with malice. If any of you have read an enjoyed it, may I request you to visit that review on
https://www.amazon.in/2022-Indias-two-f ... B07Q29P3M1 and comment or report the poor review, if you feel it is unjustified.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

RaviB ji's twin party posts need to go into our repository of Collection of Good Parts and Understanding the Chinese. Somehow typing from my phone can't find them. Requesting one of the Mods to help out.

Fantastic posts RaviBji. My pranams

[Dilbu]

Deansji it is done. I have purchased the book but haven't finished it however but that comment is surely unjustified.

[yensoy]

This one?
https://www.google.com/maps/@33.6752641 ... a=!3m1!1e3
I am trying to plot and label populous areas...
OT:I am shocked to realize that I've been so close to Chinese post in 2014 when we went on ladakh ride.
https://goo.gl/maps/rTqHnu3HeRJK6L3x7

That one is in our area too. Try wikimapia - most of those locations are labelled already.

[Mukesh.Kumar]

Banrjeer ji, that's the biggest challenge. In a country where more people post on an incident in Bollywood than the border issue. But there's hope. More people are becoming aware. We need to push the envelop. Question, try and educate others. For the next generation keep talking. I still remember my father and uncle speak of the China and Bangladesh wars when we were kids.

I am apologizing in advance if this hurts the sensibilities of anyone here. But we need to step back and look at the issue at hand from a purely analytical POV.
Also, please do not misconstrue what I write as being insulting to the memory of any of our martyrs.

----
I would summarize as:

• India will have to fight China, not for pride but for practical reasons
  Gurus, please opine.

How do you keep the population from forgetting that there is a larger mission and that they are fighting for their own well being and prosperity?

Corporate India needs to understand that Investment in a security umbrella is going to help their term valuations. ...What the US enjoys today. US companies take bets that their competitors dont have the balls to make.

[nam]

3 things I am confident will happen.

PLAN will move in to Gwadar,
Chinese forces along with armor will move in to Pak in a 2 front war
Chini will stop recognizing (or even claim) A&N as part of India.

[Cyrano]

RaviB, Thank you for the insights. I had posted a similar analysis a few pages ago, with the following options for India:

There are 3 things that will make China reconsider its attitude and approach towards India:
1. India is able to bring along powerful allies willing to fight -> changes the power play, too big a fight so they will negotiate seriously to give and take
2. India mauls them badly in a limited way, like a cornered tiger -> they will let us gain some limited barren lands and be happy with it, mulling revenge for another day and/or in another way
3. India is able to go from being a minor irritant on faraway borders to a major nuisance threatening the unity of the heartland -> they need to find a different equilibrium with this formidable opponent, so they will be amenable to find compromise and create interdependency to avoid future risks.

(Note that "crush India" type response doesn't figure above. They are a bunch of slimy snakes, not truly evil to the bone Rakshas - that would require some degree of integrity and courage to fight till the end which I don't think they have)

I wonder why the choose the present timing to pick a fight with India though, when they are already impacted by Covid, trade slow down, friction with many neighbours and open enmity with America. Perhaps they think too highly of their capabilities and are being delusional ?

[RaviB]

The first military conflict between Indians and Chinese was in 7th Century AD, when a Chinese governor of Tibet & Nepal invaded Bihar in support of one of the successor-claimants of Harshavadana in a civil war (after Harsha's death and crumbling of his short-lived empire). And the Indian claim over Aksai Chin was established by Zorowar Singh, a Dogra general who had to fight the Tibetans and Chinese (both ruled by the Manchus/Qing).

Therefore, it is incorrect to say that the first contact was with Sikh policemen under the British, either in real history or a conveniently-amnesiac "modern history". There are important political, legal and military lessons to be learned from the real history, and it is stupid to clutter the forum with the lowest-common-denominator pop history. For all we care, they can see us as just another overgrown Pakistan... and we will see them just another overgrown North Korea. What matters is, what happens on the ground.

I'm reporting based on my experience of China, certainly I am no expert. I can assure you most Chinese have never heard of these incidents. Shaolin was founded by an Indian monk but few Chinese or Indians seem to be aware of that. People are more likely to have heard of Xuan Zang. But in modern times the Sikh Policemen are the first memorable contact of Chinese, especially in Chinese popular history. For the Chinese, Sikh policemen are very closely associated with an incident which has parallels to our jalianwala Bagh for them. Everyone learns in school about the May 30 incident

In any case, current social media discussions all use the racist epithets I mentioned earlier, so obviously there is a popular memory.

I would disagree with your assertions, I think it is essential to understand how the enemy sees us and exploit that knowledge.

[abhik]

Skardu is interesting, it is at an altitude of 2200m so there will be some loss of aircraft takeoff/landing performance but nowhere as much higher than Tibet or even Leh (3500m and above).

Also looking at airfield on google they appear to be building a new runway (It already has one ~3Km runway and another ~2Km runway). Given there are only ~8 HAS and no fighters visible out in the open, may be this upgrade was ment for the Chinese to use?
https://www.google.com/maps/@35.3407374 ... !1e4?hl=en

[Larry Walker]

3 things I am confident will happen.

PLAN will move in to Gwadar,
Chinese forces along with armor will move in to Pak in a 2 front war
Chini will stop recognizing (or even claim) A&N as part of India.

I don't think PLAN will ever fight IN from Gwadar - as Gwadar is too near for IA and bulk of IAF to jump into the fight alongside IN.
China will reinforce and replenish Paki Armor and other equipments for sure but currently moving an entire Armor corps or even a brigade to Pakistan is not a simple excercise as it will require an air-bridge that will have to pass over India.
PLAAF will attack AnN islands to distract IN from focussing on chokepoints when PLAN is poised to cross them - so it is a very real possibility and this is where they will overfly Burma.

[yensoy]

Part 2 and conclusion of previous post

Sir, you are a genius.

You have left out no point, yet have made it clear what/whom we are dealing with, with the least verbiage. It is amazing.

It's too bad BRF marks you as "Trainee" when you are more than a "Trainer". You are a "Guru".

The so-called China experts are mostly useless because they don't understand China. Why? Because they spend years upon years cramming the silly language and its insane script instead of learning and observing stuff that matters. And after putting in so much of an effort, they have no other really useful skill or domain of expertise other than China, so they build up stories, situations and interpretations to stay relevant.

OTOH, we should be giving their language the contempt it deserves. Learn it by all means, but do so clinically, like an entomologist learns about insects or a proctologist about rear-ends. Don't try to identify yourself with the insect, stay apart, stay focused, like Ravi sir has done commendably.

[RaviB]

RaviB ji's twin party posts need to go into our repository of Collection of Good Parts and Understanding the Chinese. Somehow typing from my phone can't find them. Requesting one of the Mods to help out.

Fantastic posts RaviBji. My pranams

Thank you, it is your large-heartedness Mukeshji.

[yensoy]

Centre Plans To Deploy 20 Additional Companies Of ITBP Troopers Along India-China Border
https://swarajyamag.com/insta/centre-pl ... ina-border

WTF for ? An extra Army division would me more appropriate.

This itself should say something. ITBP is the right force to keep vigil on the long border. We don't expect escalation. We only need to be there physically to claim what is ours.

It also implies that this could be a long drawn out standoff, so it is best that the army doesn't get burned out by an extended forward mobilization.

IMHO, this speaks of confidence and vigilance.

[Aditya_V]

Skardu is no Sargodha, it will take years to develop infrastructure there, I will take 40 aircraft with a bucket full of salt. That's why it was not part of swift retreat. It will an emergency landing ground of PLAAF aircraft from Hotan.

[Larry Walker]

Raviji - XiPing is the direct supreme commander of PLA and him sending his trusted General I am assuming means that from Chinese perspective there is a plan that XiPing is personally overseeing.

[RaviB]

RaviB, Thank you for the insights. I had posted a similar analysis a few pages ago, with the following options for India:

There are 3 things that will make China reconsider its attitude and approach towards India:
1. India is able to bring along powerful allies willing to fight -> changes the power play, too big a fight so they will negotiate seriously to give and take
2. India mauls them badly in a limited way, like a cornered tiger -> they will let us gain some limited barren lands and be happy with it, mulling revenge for another day and/or in another way
3. India is able to go from being a minor irritant on faraway borders to a major nuisance threatening the unity of the heartland -> they need to find a different equilibrium with this formidable opponent, so they will be amenable to find compromise and create interdependency to avoid future risks.

(Note that "crush India" type response doesn't figure above. They are a bunch of slimy snakes, not truly evil to the bone Rakshas - that would require some degree of integrity and courage to fight till the end which I don't think they have)

I wonder why the choose the present timing to pick a fight with India though, when they are already impacted by Covid, trade slow down, friction with many neighbours and open enmity with America. Perhaps they think too highly of their capabilities and are being delusional ?

I read your posts and found them very thoughtful Amar ji.

My thoughts regarding timing is that they see USA suffering under Covid, see it in disarray and are preparing for making moves against them, probably around the election time. They'll probably also be cyber-gaming the US elections. So getting India tied up in knots, scaring it and warning it against allying with the USA will remove the most likely ally of the US from the picture. They might be planning to make a move on Taiwan again when the US is distracted by covid and elections both. From their perspective, this would be the best time to make hard moves, they are one of the few countries who have Wuhan Virus under control. Getting India out of the picture would be useful for whatever they are planning.

I think the quad has also worried them and India walking out of RCEP is also something they saw as an affront.