India's Border Security with China and Pakistan-2020

KLNMurthy · Post by **KLNMurthy** » 24 Jun 2020 11:14

Satyameva Jayate by Lt. Gen. P.R. Shankar (Retd)

If you are a Chinese, you would say One Swallow Does Not Make a Summer. If you are an Indian, you would say Out of Small Acorns Grow Mighty Oaks, whenever Galwan is discussed. In battle as in life, truth alone prevails, irrespective of the fact that it is the first casualty of war. However the truth I am alluding to is the sentiment which all Indian soldiers have learned through ages from this saying in Mahabharata

Yada yada hi dharmasya glanirbhavati bharata
Abhythanamadharmasya tadatmanam srijamyaham
Paritranaya sadhunam vinashay cha dushkritam
Dharmasansthapanarthay sambhavami yuge yuge

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2020 11:16

Well said Karan M! The current dispensation has done piecemeal improvements, which is not close to giving us a "breakout" moment. Subsidies sucking up money, babudom-led-Finmin & DefMin, Services continuing their import pasand etc have all contributed. There is only incrementalism - not the path of a superpower seeking nation

sajaym · Post by **sajaym** » 24 Jun 2020 11:45

Mods, I'm sensing that there needs to be a feature wherein every thread should have a folder of the photos shared in that thread. And this folder of photos should store the photos with some reference number which can be quoted by posters as reference in any discussion. The link to this folder should appear at the top of the page of the thread or it should be a floating link which moves in whichever direction you scroll. The net result of this should be that if during a discussion, I want to refer to a map which has been shared recently in the same thread, I can go into that folder and check that map instead of scrolling through the pages looking for that map. Just a thought.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 11:53

darshan wrote:
pankajs wrote: Remote controlled warfare looks and sound spectacular but without ground forces to hold territory it is of little use.

We launch our forces into Tibet and go after their military assets with the intent to hold choke points.
I should have stated the assumption that they don't want to utilize their ground forces and want to keep them in defensive posture. Nothing to do with spectacular except as chinese those are my strong points right now.

Essentially as chinese, I have realized that it's possible to loose face with a ground attack and I want to hold it back but want to utilize my plus points of being able to build and replenish things faster than India. For each dollar of mine, cause India to loose many times more. And, my main target for time being leadership change in India. I'll get my territory and shock and awe later while keeping everything at a tolerance level for now.

Would India exhaust its weapons? or opt to escalate to settle the business for once and all? Or.....

1. China - Hold back ground troops while launching remote bombs/missiles

India - Launch into Tibet and go after their military positions/bases. Rutog and Ngari, their main bases/supply depot are not too far from LAC. Ngari is 65km as the crow flies from Demchok and about 75 km by road.

Rutog is ~95 km as the crow flies from Chushul and ~110 km by road.

2. China - want to utilize my plus points of being able to build and replenish things faster than India.

India - Attack their main supply nodes in the area and cut off their line of supply. Again attack Rutog and Ngari that are their main re-supply bases/depot for Ladakh. This also cuts off the G219 from Lhasa.

Make a play for G219 on the other side i.e. as it enters the Aksai Chin from the Hotan. This is where the DBO become critical. From Karakoram pass the G219 is ~125 km NNE via a Chinese road. At this point the G219 is in a corridor like space with a wall of mountain on the Chinese side that do not have a bypass.

IFFF you are able to block G219 @ Ngari and on the Hotan side you have basically cut Aksi Chin off the rest of China.

China can throw all it missiles/rockets it wants but unless it it willing to fight on the ground Aksi Chin will be lost to it.
AND Indian Army does not have to go to Lhasa to win back Aksi Chin. They just have to make an advance of about 125 km on the two axis that I just touched.

LakshmanPST · Post by **LakshmanPST** » 24 Jun 2020 11:53

Pashupatastra wrote:Brahma Chellany blames Modi's naivete in excessive engagement with Xi Xingping and over personalisation of foreign policy. He interestingly compares Modi's visit to China akin to Vajpayee's visit to Lahore as part of bus diplomacy. He also expresses fear that India has failed Bhutan in Doklam.

India’s appeasement policy toward China unravels
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/20 ... -unravels/

While Chellaney has few valid points, he is being excessively critical of Modi of late...
Modi might have done few mistakes, but it is not a total disaster as he paints it to be...
It is under Modi govt. that border infrastructure has been improved a lot in the last 6 years... Infact, this is the main reason Chinese are at our door step... Also, Indian ammunition reserves were abysmally low... Though the reserves now 'improved' only to 'critical' list, the situation is much better than what it was 6 years ago...

I guess Modi only tried to delay the inevitable Chinese war as much as possible as we were not yet ready to take on the Lizard directly and he would have probably thought that economic ties with China would act as a deterrent to an immediate war which would be detrimental to both sides... I would have called it appeasement, had Modi sat idle without developing border infrastructure or war reserves...
I do not even want to imagine the Chinese Stand-off happening 5 years back...

Also, Chellaney is repeating the lie that China occupied Indian side of Galwan valley almost daily ad nauseam without providing any proofs...
And inspite of news that India firmly asked China to withdraw from Pangong Tso, he is painting it as a failure...
Lately, I'm seeing his tweets and articles more as rants rather than expert analysis...
I'm not really sure that he has India's interests in mind when he writes his rants...

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 24 Jun 2020 11:54

India is nowhere close to even thinking about being a superpower. Honestly - all the govt wants is to be left alone to develop the country I think.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:04

nam wrote:
KL Dubey wrote:
We have *already* achieved that objective, and it will be cemented further once all the needed border infrastructure is completed. That is why neither Paks nor Chinese have launched any military offensive since 1999, because they know the price will be too steep. Just showing up at the border in numbers and trying to needle us is not "fighting". If they felt they could cause major damage, they would....neither Pak or China has any moral or ethical basis.
No, we haven't. We can defend the line, but cannot decimate them quick enough. Pak hasn't done it for economic reason. If it is secured of money, it will arm itself and try again.

Result of this is that we are fighting a war as equals. This forces us to prevent escalation or agreed to a ceasefire, because there is a stalemate. This encourages salami tactics.

We need to win. Decisively.

We have achieved a kind of military parity with China on the LAC and that encourages salami tactics. True.

However, we don't need to win Decisively. If we can hold our ground and punch them in the face once in a while like at Nathu La we are good.

Our problem till date was has been
1. Lack of LAC infra.
2. Lack of will to fight at the political level.
3. Precarious position of basic defense supplies like ammunition, etc.

There 3 are more of less fixed in the last 6 years.

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 12:12

I wonder what is getting in discussed in the meetings. The Chinis are on F4 and doesn't look like they plan to leave.

What is there to discuss? Unless we have moved in to their part of LAC...

All the standoff area mentioned are from our media.. they will not know what areas we have moved in.

The Chinis cannot mention it, because that will lead to public pressure to retaliate..

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:13

LakshmanPST wrote:Also, Chellaney is repeating the lie that China occupied Indian side of Galwan valley almost daily ad nauseam without providing any proofs...
And inspite of news that India firmly asked China to withdraw from Pangong Tso, he is painting it as a failure...
Lately, I'm seeing his tweets and articles more as rants rather than expert analysis...
I'm not really sure that he has India's interests in mind when he writes his rants...

I have always held that Chellaney views are to be ignore most of the time and I had even written about it in a reply to a post by a member a while back. He is the proverbial "sky is falling" guy.

So why does he get space in foreign publication? Foreign media loves commentators who are willing to endlessly bash India.

However, he does serve a useful purpose with his ultra-hawkish views on China.

VikramS · Post by **VikramS** » 24 Jun 2020 12:22

There is no let-up in Chinese buildup.

One question to the Gurus: How tenable are their positions once Winter sets in?

chola · Post by **chola** » 24 Jun 2020 12:23

pankajs wrote:
nam wrote:
No, we haven't. We can defend the line, but cannot decimate them quick enough. Pak hasn't done it for economic reason. If it is secured of money, it will arm itself and try again.

Result of this is that we are fighting a war as equals. This forces us to prevent escalation or agreed to a ceasefire, because there is a stalemate. This encourages salami tactics.

We need to win. Decisively.
We have achieved a kind of military parity with China on the LAC and that encourages salami tactics. True.

However, we don't need to win Decisively. If we can hold our ground and punch them in the face once in a while like at Nathu La we are good.

Our problem till date was has been
1. Lack of LAC infra.
2. Lack of will to fight at the political level.
3. Precarious position of basic defense supplies like ammunition, etc.

There 3 are more of less fixed in the last 6 years.

We did not achieve parity. We held overwhelming advantages in troops and aircraft. But not unleashing the IA the moment blood was shed means we are allowing THEM to reach military parity with us.

We are repeating what we did at Doklam. By facing them down and not pulling the trigger we created a situation where we basically forced them to build up. It is warning your enemy to marshal his forces when you should have simply crushed him with your numbers.

Maybe that is Modi's plan. Cheen had always gotten off cheap with maintaining 3 brigades onlee in Tibet and now they need to maintain a lakh or two to secure their rear.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:29

Sonugn wrote:Galwan clash: China talks peace but raises troop deployment by 30%

Indian patrols have traditionally patrolled here up to Patrolling Point (PP) 10, 11, 12, and 13. Now they are being stopped by the Chinese, who have built tracks bypassing these PPs and extending 15-17 kilometres (km) into Indian-claimed territory.

This includes advancing deeper into Indian territory at Jeevan Nullah (PP13) and ongoing attempts to cross the so-called bottleneck area on Raki Nullah (PP12).

In the Galwan Valley, the Chinese have established a camp about 1 km inside the Indian side (west) of the LAC near PP14, where the June 15 clash occurred

While Indian troops are patrolling close to PP14, Chinese patrols are visiting the heights along the Galwan River, especially those closer to the LAC.

Meanwhile, at PP15, which is 25 km south of PP14, the Chinese have entered about 2 km inside the Indian side of the LAC and have constructed two tracks on Indian-claimed territory, say sources.

While there is no Chinese ingress at PP16, the confrontation continues in the Hot Springs sector, which includes PP17 (called the Gogra Heights), PP18, and PP19 (called Kongka La).

Indian planners, therefore, face the worrisome prospect of a dual threat to northern Ladakh.

Shooklaw has been wrong on Galwan so far.

Just yesterdin I was checking the top of ridged around Galwan. There was no track to the top and the slopes are too steep for quick scaling. One could cut it to the top but it will need time.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 24 Jun 2020 12:33

The sad thing is, almost all the journalists are politically sided.
As time passes, we realize that journalists from both sides have been partially right and partially wrong so far, but they have tried to cover up.

Well, that is one of the disadvantage of having a democratic setup.

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 12:34

Karan M wrote:Every time Rajnath Singh or anyone makes a quick flight abroad asking weapons and spares be supplied at short notice, it paints a picture of a country that is haphazardly run and is unprepared for sustained war beyond a Galwan or a smaller area. A proper war. It may not be the full truth but optics matter and the PRC may think we are weak enough to try their chances.

The sad thing is that we civilian "armchair-ist" can see this fundamental flaw in our security setup, when we are up against two large armies and 7000KM of frontline! But for some reason our policy maker and military leaders seems to be completely blind in this.

IAF is busy in only getting more Rafale, IN is fighting for aircraft carrier, while IA wants more men and 6 Apaches. Everything else can wait.

Jobs at OFB seems to be more important than National Security.

We are apparently spending 10B every year getting kit from DPSU. Imagine even if half of this is going to private sector...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:36

chola wrote:We did not achieve parity. We held overwhelming advantages in troops and aircraft. But not unleashing the IA the moment blood was shed means we are allowing THEM to reach military parity with us.

We are repeating what we did at Doklam. By facing them down and not pulling the trigger we created a situation where we basically forced them to build up. It is warning your enemy to marshal his forces when you should have simply crushed him with your numbers.

Maybe that is Modi's plan. Cheen had always gotten off cheap with maintaining 3 brigades onlee in Tibet and now they need to maintain a lakh or two to secure their rear.

I am sorry but from what I have read so far, the Chinese have set the pace in deployment and we are matching them after the fact at specific locations along the LAC.

So while we may have been ahead overall in the sector/Theater, at the place of incursions/conflict it it Chinese who are setting the pace.

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 12:40

chola wrote: We did not achieve parity. We held overwhelming advantages in troops and aircraft. But not unleashing the IA the moment blood was shed means we are allowing THEM to reach military parity with us.

We are repeating what we did at Doklam. By facing them down and not pulling the trigger we created a situation where we basically forced them to build up. It is warning your enemy to marshal his forces when you should have simply crushed him with your numbers.

Maybe that is Modi's plan. Cheen had always gotten off cheap with maintaining 3 brigades onlee in Tibet and now they need to maintain a lakh or two to secure their rear.

That is the reason I said we in a parity state. Because we will not fire the first shot.

The fight will always be post build up.

chola · Post by **chola** » 24 Jun 2020 12:42

VikramS wrote:There is no let-up in Chinese buildup.

One question to the Gurus: How tenable are their positions once Winter sets in?

They are a production and logistics based power. They are not a combat power. They can't fight but they can build and supply like no other.

If we fight a general border war now, we win. It is that simple.

Later in the summer, it becomes dicier as they will have built up with more machines than we can hope to match (even with emergency buys from Russia.) Once winter comes and combat operations impaired then the money is on them to supply their forces better even though we have shorter lines of communications because that is what they do.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 24 Jun 2020 12:43

pankajs wrote:I am sorry but from what I have read so far, the Chinese have set the pace in deployment and we are matching them after the fact at specific locations along the LAC.

So while we may have been ahead overall in the sector/Theater, at the place of incursions/conflict it it Chinese who are setting the pace.

Sir, do you honestly expect to read about Indian forward deployments in the press? I hope that we are doing our own bit of mischief and I do not want these to be reported publicly. We also don't do the kind of open and massive shows of strength the Chinese indulge in. As per Gen Parnaik's interview yesterday, we did a counter claim in 2013 and rubbed it in their face. I hope this tradition has not changed lately.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:44

V_Raman wrote:India is nowhere close to even thinking about being a superpower. Honestly - all the govt wants is to be left alone to develop the country I think.

Absolutely.

Even now, GOI is holding back with the hope that the situation can be recovered by talks however slim the chances may be of that happening.

GOI does seem to be preparing for a limited conflict with all the movements that have and are taking place.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 12:48

yensoy wrote:
pankajs wrote:I am sorry but from what I have read so far, the Chinese have set the pace in deployment and we are matching them after the fact at specific locations along the LAC.

So while we may have been ahead overall in the sector/Theater, at the place of incursions/conflict it it Chinese who are setting the pace.
Sir, do you honestly expect to read about Indian forward deployments in the press? I hope that we are doing our own bit of mischief and I do not want these to be reported publicly. We also don't do the kind of open and massive shows of strength the Chinese indulge in. As per Gen Parnaik's interview yesterday, we did a counter claim in 2013 and rubbed it in their face. I hope this tradition has not changed lately.

Hopefully ...

I did read/hear that we have moved/deployed the Mountain division. Now that is a signal to that we are looking for counter action of our choosing not just in countering the Chinese at their point of choosing.

Davidrock · Post by **Davidrock** » 24 Jun 2020 13:13

The debris that PLA put in PP14 after the 15 June clash, was "probably" for raising the level of the area to a higher level for building their positions there. When they released water, they would have calibrated how high the water flows and planned accordingly.

Abhijit incorrectly guessed "surgical strike", and compliance by PLA by showing us the debris of the broken rock dam.

It is getting serious by the day.

I seriously hope we have occupied the heights and are not depending on the talks.

But we need not worry. There are able guys up there, I am certain they are doing what needs to be done.
In a limited conflict, the smaller power has advantage to stalemate. And stalemating is our victory.

AshishA · Post by **AshishA** » 24 Jun 2020 13:14

I want to ask the gurus here. Will china attack considering they are not slowing their build up? If so, when and which place would be the best from chinese point of view.

Or will this end in de-escalation.

which of the two seems more probable now?

sajo · Post by **sajo** » 24 Jun 2020 13:24

Iyerval indulging in fearmongering on teetar.

"More bad news(not deaths or fights) coming in from Galwan. Will update when I can confirm"

Pashupatastra · Post by **Pashupatastra** » 24 Jun 2020 13:32

pankajs wrote:
LakshmanPST wrote:Also, Chellaney is repeating the lie that China occupied Indian side of Galwan valley almost daily ad nauseam without providing any proofs...
And inspite of news that India firmly asked China to withdraw from Pangong Tso, he is painting it as a failure...
Lately, I'm seeing his tweets and articles more as rants rather than expert analysis...
I'm not really sure that he has India's interests in mind when he writes his rants...
I have always held that Chellaney views are to be ignore most of the time and I had even written about it in a reply to a post by a member a while back. He is the proverbial "sky is falling" guy.

So why does he get space in foreign publication? Foreign media loves commentators who are willing to endlessly bash India.

However, he does serve a useful purpose with his ultra-hawkish views on China.

Brahma Chellany and most other defence/strategy analysts may have an intentional/unintentional bias. However , the fact remains that for other countries in Asia , India has not challenged China enough to make its weight felt as a superpower. Even the negotiations and talks give an appearance of China managing to push its nefarious agenda. Modi has been shrewd in his policies but may have erred in assuming China - India relations can be normalized through diplomacy. China's CPC's ideology will never allow another superpower in its backyard and hence every Indian government must take precautions not to harbour hope of peace with China till CPC is ruling.

Prem Kumar · Post by **Prem Kumar** » 24 Jun 2020 13:34

V_Raman wrote:India is nowhere close to even thinking about being a superpower. Honestly - all the govt wants is to be left alone to develop the country I think.

Yes - and its a fool's errand. 1000 years of history has shown us that war is interested in us, even if we are not interested in war. Indians across the spectrum (from which the leadership pool is elected), seem unwilling to learn this simple lesson.

We should always be prepared for war & even start one when it suits our strategic needs. Instead, we act all surprised that the enemy doesn't want "peace" like us and wonder "why won't they leave us alone"

srai · Post by **srai** » 24 Jun 2020 13:45

AshishAcharya wrote:I want to ask the gurus here. Will china attack considering they are not slowing their build up? If so, when and which place would be the best from chinese point of view.

Or will this end in de-escalation.

which of the two seems more probable now?

IMO, mostly posturing to show “strength” by Xi to pander to his base. China is a “hollow” threat as they don’t have a real war credentials over the last few decades. Yes, they have been modernizing and building up of their MIC, but it’s all hollow threat until they can prove winning with it. If they lose, then that “hollow” would be proven to be correct in the perception of the world. They have more to lose than to gain.

If they really want to earn bonafide military credentials then India is not the right choice. They can’t win easily. They will suffer huge casualties. It’s not 1962.

p_ram · Post by **p_ram** » 24 Jun 2020 14:03

Has there been any news continued talks yesterday? After the marathon talks and announcement that modalities of withdrawal will be worked out later, there has been no reports. Did they stop the talks because of an impasses?

Is there a point of continuing talks id there are hard stops in negotiations, on which the can be no agreement? Like Indian wanting the troops to move back to April 2020 positions and China's now repeated claims on the Galwan valley? Unless the point to talks is to buy time for further prep by oth the sides.

Edit: Sorry found an update here, so continued talks were scheduled for today:
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... JL2ZP.html

The crucial meeting of the Working Mechanism for Consultation and Coordination on India-China border affairs (WMCC) will take place on Wednesday where the two sides are expected to have a candid conversation on how to resolve the stand-off at four points in East Ladakh.

The Indian Army, after the marathon meeting of military commanders on June 22 had informally characterised it as “mutual consensus” to disengage but did not go deeper on whose terms. The Chinese spokesperson, in his stiff style, called the situation “cool” as if both the armies were hanging out with each other.

While the marathon meeting is still being analysed, it is now emerging that both the generals forcefully put out claims of their respective armies along the 1,587 km Line of Actual Control (LAC) in East Ladakh.

“There is consensus between both sides to mutually disengage after deliberating on each contested point. The process may take a couple of weeks as the ground commanders will have to verify the disengagement and the thinning out in the depth on a daily basis. It is true that both Chinese and Indian army did force accretion after the June 15 Galwan flare up. There has been no addition of forces since the June 22 military commanders’ meeting,” a senior military commander told Hindustan Times.

....snip

OT:
Lurker here joining after some time. I know my username is not human, so if a mod is reading this my apologies, please change it to p_ram. Thanks!

vishvak · Post by **vishvak** » 24 Jun 2020 14:16

Ladakhis are firmly with us.
..
It is the same with Bhutan and Nepal. The former (like Sikkim) is in danger of being overrun by China

We are facing enemies (Chinese and pukes) who only look at violence and weapon preparedness and buy time otherwise.

Nepal wasn't communist to begin with and communists have nothing therefore to lose but power which is why no protests when Chinese took over a village. Bhutan is smaller and yet could stand with India during doklam crisis.

Bharadwaj · Post by **Bharadwaj** » 24 Jun 2020 14:19

https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 9758570496

Have the Chinese moved back to PP 14? Is it possible they changed the course of the river and we do not have direct access to the spot now? The sat pics are quite confusing indeed.

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 14:21

I hope IAF has moved our BMD to intercept Chini BM. It cannot more real life than this. Start producing AAD missiles in bulk.

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 14:24

Bharadwaj wrote:https://twitter.com/detresfa_/status/12 ... 9758570496

Have the Chinese moved back to PP 14? Is it possible they changed the course of the river and we do not have direct access to the spot now? The sat pics are quite confusing indeed.

I don't understand Chinis wanting to hold that position. It is a kill zone. Notice none of our guys are in strength in those areas. Because when the artillery starts falling...

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 14:42

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=2800#p2441625

pankajs wrote:Chinese don't want India anywhere near the Karakoram pass and hence all their effort to push India out of DBO/Depsang plains. Galwan gambit was to choke our line of supplies to DBO/Depsang and get India to concede.

Apart from DBO road getting completed, there is another factor that make the timing critical. There is an alternate supply route under work i.e. the "Sasoma-Saser pass-Murgo" route, which will act as a backup for logistics to DBO/Depsang. AFTER that bypass is completed, Galwan gambit's relevance would have reduced considerably.

The DBO/Depsnag gambit via the Galwan gambit had to be executed before completion of the alternate route at the latest but preferably as early as possible before India further hardens its defenses in DBO/Depsang via the primary route along the Shyok river.

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=2880#p2441707

pankajs wrote:1. A little territory grab/exchange here or there or there is one thing but getting to Leh is entirely different out of question. The Chinese till date haven't even assembled enough force to pressure major points.

2. There are 2 MAJOR Chinese pressure points that is within 100-150 km from DBO/Depsang plains. Why else are the Chinese so keen on Galwan valley? Just to pressure our deployment @ DBO/Depsang plains. Ask yourself why is DBO/Depsang plains so important.

Since you seem to have time to comment on this forum, open GEarth/Google maps, draw a circle of about100- 150 km centered on our DBO base. Does it touch anything that the Chinese consider as critical for their defense of Tibet?

viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=3120#p2442081

yensoy wrote:Brilliant interview of Gen Parnaik, Gen Kulkarni and Nitin Gokhale. Nice details of tit-for-tat operation of 2013 Depsang plain incident explained by Gen Parnaik. We seem to have done some counterop in Demchok. In Hindi FYI.

For the answer starts @ 15:40 ...

@ 15:48::Gen Parnaik] The main aim of Chinese is our DSDBO road .. [16:04] In that area {DBO} 4-5 small rivers flow and they become approaches. They want to stop the usage of this road {DSDBO road} so that IA forces do not reach the northern areas.

Focus on "4-5 small rivers flow and they become approaches[/b]" BUT approaches to what?

You see the road that China has constructed to reach Depsang plain can also be used by IA to roll up to G219 that is only ~150 km away, just as it emerges from the Mountains of North-West (Kun Lun range ???) on to the Aksi Chin plateau.

Additionally, From Karakoram pass, ~120 km NNE is another place that the G219 highway can be intersected.

That is the key to understanding the strategic position of India's foot print @ DBO/Depsang plains. With the DSDBO completed, the Chinese perception is that India could launch a lightning strike on G219 starting somewehere around Syok village, well hidden for the Chinese eyesight.

Hence the keen Chinese interest in Galwan valley to keep a watch and if necessary interdict the traffic on the new DSDBO road but also to create the base for evicting India/IA from DBO/Depsnag plains at the time of their choosing.

RaviB · Post by **RaviB** » 24 Jun 2020 14:48

One Child Policy

Some "defense analyst" mentioned the impact of one child policy on China's warfighting ability and I think was pretty much laughed out of the court.

Now, I was checking out one of the Chinese military forums and they have a discussion on the one child policy.

Their fear is that the soldiers are unmarried and in their 20s so basically once one soldier dies, an entire family line comes to an end. One of the suggested solutions is freezing the sperms of soldiers.

Everyone thinks minimzing casualties is essential but this will happen anyway due to all the missiles they are going to use targeting radars, missile batteries and IAF installations. I had mentioned earlier that the Chinese are obsessed with Iraq war 1. Those who are old enough might remember the visuals from back then.

2 lessons that might be drawn from this:

1. Their attack is probably going to start not with direct skirmishes but air strikes and BM strikes. Their delusion seems to be that they won't be struck back. Their generals are itching to test their toys, and General Zhao at least has memories of sacrificing tens of thousands of soldiers in Vietnam so hasn't given too much thought to casualties.

2. They have no appetite for casualties. Which means that instead of capturing territory, as we would with Pakistan, our focus should be on inflicting casualties and capturing prisoners. If there's one thing that would build tremendous pressure on the CCP, it is parents who lose their only child and those who are afraid of losing their only child. This is probably also the reason why the CCP has totally suppressed the number of their own casualties. But already, even the Chinese are asking how it's possible that only Indian soldiers died in hand to hand combat. The current explanation to console themselves is that only 3 Indian soldiers died in the fighting, the rest died due to lack of medical care. (The PLA obviously had set up a field hospital with 500 beds, robotic surgery and GT doctors on the ridge)

Our soldiers are indispensable too and we would do everything to reduce our own casualties but my point is that even if we are on the backfoot, and they have only half the casualties that we have, they will fold. The asymmetry in casualties though is likely to be the other way around in mountain warfare. One FAE hit on their troops massed in the Galwan valley will do more to break their will than 10 missiles landing on infrastructure on our side. Not to mention that we will be shooting back too, Ngari and Sirjap look really tempting, so this is definitely not US Vs Iraq.

I'm not sure if google translate works but here's a link https://translate.google.com/translate? ... id%253D236
Original link: https://lt.cjdby.net/forum.php?mod=view ... peid%3D236

symontk · Post by **symontk** » 24 Jun 2020 14:50

pankajs wrote:viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=2800#p2441625
pankajs wrote:Chinese don't want India anywhere near the Karakoram pass and hence all their effort to push India out of DBO/Depsang plains. Galwan gambit was to choke our line of supplies to DBO/Depsang and get India to concede.

Apart from DBO road getting completed, there is another factor that make the timing critical. There is an alternate supply route under work i.e. the "Sasoma-Saser pass-Murgo" route, which will act as a backup for logistics to DBO/Depsang. AFTER that bypass is completed, Galwan gambit's relevance would have reduced considerably.

No, its doesnt solve anything, Thats where Pakistan comes into picture. See the maps. From my understanding as a civilian, China will attempt to drive us out Galwan valley, DBO and Fingers. Pakistan will put pressure on Siachen and other ridges

p_ram · Post by **p_ram** » 24 Jun 2020 14:59

Some new OSINT twitter account reporting what is supposedly new radar locations across LAC on Chinese side.

Thread: https://twitter.com/CSM_INT/status/1275488184252628992

nam · Post by **nam** » 24 Jun 2020 15:00

As I mentioned earlier, smashing their forces on LAC is the way to reduce BM hits on our side. They cannot keep firing BM, where their forces are getting decimated on the border.

They have to concentrate on reducing the attrition.

When the PLA fires the first bullet, we got to smash their forces all along the LAC. Need to cause heavy attrition on their forces.

pankajs · Post by **pankajs** » 24 Jun 2020 15:00

symontk wrote:
pankajs wrote:viewtopic.php?f=3&t=7810&start=2800#p2441625
No, its doesnt solve anything, Thats where Pakistan comes into picture. See the maps. From my understanding as a civilian, China will attempt to drive us out Galwan valley, DBO and Fingers. Pakistan will put pressure on Siachen and other ridges

I guess you are talking about "Saser La" bypass that I was talking about.

Bakisan has been putting pressure on Saltaro ridge for long without anything to show for their efforts.

Plus any movement/fighting on Saltaro ridge is only by highly trained/specialized forces. The environment is so unforgiving that men have to be rotated after 3 months posting {From memory}. It is not like Bakis can sent their horde of jihadi brigade to pressure India/IA on Saltaro ridge.

So no, Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route is not going to come under pressure anytime soon. BTW, while the track has been there for a long time, an all weather road is still quite a distance away but once completed it will provide a alternate to the Shyok route to DBO/Depsang plains.

Sasoma-Saser la-Murgo route comes close to the LAC only as it approaches Murgo and it is protected behind another mountain range for most of its path. Though it has its limitations, especially with it crossing over a glaciated mountain pass, it provides a reasonable and worthwhile alternative to the DSDBO route.

V_Raman · Post by **V_Raman** » 24 Jun 2020 15:07

I did not want to sound defeatist. We just dont want to proactively fight as we have a lot in our life. But we can fight - we are very violent people actually. We are arming reluctantly to say the least. But there is a saying in Tamizh - Saadhu Mirandaal Kaadu Kolladhu - China beware. We can be vicious.

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 24 Jun 2020 15:10

Man ... Till yesterday I was bein jeered and sneered for saying things that since last night have been the general direction of this thread ... What has changed overnight ??!!

Larry Walker · Post by **Larry Walker** » 24 Jun 2020 15:15

I would request to look at current Chinese plans from the perspective of what they need to do to save GB and PoK from falling back into Indian hands. Pakis being master haramees that they are, by grovelling to Chinese and diving deep into CPEC, they have very smartly made saving GB and PoK from India a Chinese problem now.