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Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part III

Amarko
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Postby Amarko » 14 Sep 2005 15:41

Great build up Shankar, but unsatisfying resolution

Some nitpicks:
Pak prez becoming the spokesperson of the terrorists is far fetched. I'd expect the demands coming from a jehadi website or a local newspaper in PoK, and Pak Govt as usual denying any involvement in the matter and promising "full cooperation" with international community and offer to be the negotiator.

Wouldn't the Paki commander be in touch with his HQ and get updates on aircraft coming into the area (the only possible way for a surprise attack) assuming Pak has radars to scan until Kosh.

He might have brought along some AAGuns with him as well and deployed them around the base.

At the very first surprise (Mirage cluster bombs) he could press the trigger on the explosive charges around the aircarft.

The jet getting hit due to crossfire or straybullets and exploding is a real possibility.

The A/C of the jet will perhaps draw air from outside and intoxicate the passengers who obviously do not have gas masks. When the special forces open the jet's doors they expose the passengers again to NO2 fumes at ground level. With all the VIP passengers, such a risk is well too risky.

Fun reading it all the same.
Amarko.

Roger
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Postby Roger » 15 Sep 2005 01:19

Hi, i'm new here. But i have been following this thread for some time, and i have to say, you guys have real talent!. i went back to the archived threads and read the whole scenario from the start in one day and truly blown away.
anyway, this osh incident is typical of the high -octane stuff you guys dish out and it's really impressive. the technical stuff is sometimes too highbrow for me, but lends an air of authencuty and reality.
keep up the good work!

VikramS
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Postby VikramS » 15 Sep 2005 03:06

Amarko wrote:Great build up Shankar, but unsatisfying resolution

He might have brought along some AAGuns with him as well and deployed them around the base.
.


They bought some stingers. But anything less than a radar guided SAM would not do against a low-low-high supersonic run.

Amarko wrote:At the very first surprise (Mirage cluster bombs) he could press the trigger on the explosive charges around the aircarft.


Once he presses the trigger the game is up. He knows everyone will be massacred; they have lost all leverage. A few bombs on the airfield will leave them bruised but the game was still on.

The A/C of the jet will perhaps draw air from outside and intoxicate the passengers who obviously do not have gas masks. When the special forces open the jet's doors they expose the passengers again to NO2 fumes at ground level. With all the VIP passengers, such a risk is well too risky.


Amarko.


It is likely that the aircraft was working on its external APU and not exactly sucking in air at massive rates; even with the APU, planes can get hot on the ground. Also, the gas dissipates into 3 dimensions and in a few minutes, will lose its effectiveness. The penetration into a sealed aircraft would be significantly less than the concentration outside.

vishnua
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Postby vishnua » 15 Sep 2005 03:45

i have to say after the chenchyn siege of moscow theater and russia using "mysterious" gas they got kudos from all over. ..

lesson : don't awake the bear...

KSandy
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Postby KSandy » 15 Sep 2005 11:36

Captain Singha and I along with other crew members are having a good party in the mess of INS Chola after hearing about the end of the seige and the fire on the puki a**
most of the pukis died in laughter while we are loading fuel 'black label' into ourself on this occasion.

Mr. Shankar, great writeup waiting for more from you specially after meeting you personally.

p_saggu
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Postby p_saggu » 16 Sep 2005 03:01

Pryia Shankar ji

Great build up.
But why deprive us of the blood and bile gore??? Thoda aur Khoon kharaaba karne se bahut accha hota. It would've been bery bery nice to know how the paki team leader met his 72's...

amiava
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Postby amiava » 16 Sep 2005 04:17

vishnua wrote:i have to say after the chenchyn siege of moscow theater and russia using "mysterious" gas they got kudos from all over. ..

lesson : don't awake the bear...


Nothing mysterious about it now... it was fentanyl an opioid used by the anesthetist. Its side effect is respiratory depression, the reason for many people dying due to overdose.

VruDesh
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Postby VruDesh » 17 Sep 2005 19:27

I think we need to have a few scenarios where third parties step in to help TSP.They have a few military pacts with some nations in middle east and they are bound to help.

Sunil
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Postby Sunil » 17 Sep 2005 23:07

By the side of the Main Building (or MB as it is called) was a small shed that overlooked the School of Management. The School was new... it was being constructed by an Alumnus called Kanwal Rekhi but the shed had housed a coffee shop that sold instant coffee, a plate of maggi noodles, and chocolates for a while now. The shed was surrounded by a small patch of open ground where there were plastic chairs and tables and a few large umbrellas that cover the same. It was a collecting ground for all those people that were going from one place to another with some sense of urgency but felt the need to sit down and chill out. Needless to say apart from the Adminstrative staff of the MB - the place provided much needed refuge to students who don't mind missing class but clearly got up too late to have breakfast and too early to have lunch.

It was an brisk summer morning in 1998 and the four gathered there by chance. They ordered their coffees and maggi noodles and each settled into a chair. There was an uncomfortable moment as the Dean of Student Affairs passed ahead of them and occupied a table to their right with someone who obviously was a government bureaucrat. Three of the four boys were well known to the dean due to their positions in the elected student government. The first was a general secretary, the second the overall coordinator in the festival - "MI" and the third was a member of the so-called Advisory Group of MI. The fourth was generally seen as someone hovering around the other three. Though others regarded him as the emenince grise of the student government, a mister dirty-deeds-done-dirt-cheap... but the Dean was unaware of his activities.

The four boys sipped into their coffees and smoked their cigarettes and dug into their Maggi noodles.

The General Secretary (GS) spoke first: "Have you heard Mani got refused a visa despite having a schol from Rutgers? - something about his B.Tech topic being about microwave cavity design. Apparently that is a sensitive area and after the May tests the US State Dept has really clamped down. There will be economic problems if the regime of denial expands."

The Overall Coordinator (OC) replied: "Yes Mani was pi$$ed about it.. didn't help matter that RSS man Thatte chose to yap on about how great the nuclear tests were and what a bangup job the BJP is doing... Mani almost punched Thatte. These political people take hype so seriously .. I really don't know.."

The Advisor (AG): " I am beginning to wonder what this test has benifited us in strategic terms. I understand the technical advantage but in strat. terms it looks like we are restating the obvious. Why would one want to repeat the same message at such a cost. Like the BJP actually built the Bomb? for all that work and effort these idiots in the opposition insist on calling it a "Hindu Bomb"... "

The GS replied:"Yes.. all this is doing very little to create a stability. The Pakistanis are going to be encouraged by the deliberate provocations from the MHA. It appears to be a lure.. one that will work damn well.."

The OC cut in: "But that again brings us to why we are doing this... it is a deliberate provocation to the Pakistanis and why... that too at a time when we need American investor confidence. The benifits are hard to gauge.."

The AG was about say something when he was cut off.

The fourth boy finally spoke:" I think there are many benifits... and greater still are all the doors opened."

The OC looked unconvinced: "Such as?"

The fourth spoke again:" Well.. we have put them on notice with the tests. We have their undivided attention and they think they have replied to us. Needless to say the prospect of more escalations will now entail a whole other dimension to it but we can be sure of having their undivided attention..."

The AG : "That is a strange language... actions instead of words. I suppose it could be seen as more effective but what do we need them for..."

The fourth :"Their malcontent knows no bounds. The way I see it we are who are - our size and our weight in the region are well known. There is no reason for compulsive hostility. Over the last decade our economy has grown and though currently we have enough to support that growth there is no guarentee that this will continue to be the case. No one knows yet just how big the economy is and so no one is talking about it. They could easily misinterpret our silence..."

The GS asked: "So what will we need? that we have to get from them.. they don't seem to have anything..."

The OC replied: "It must be Energy and Heroin. There can't be anything else. They have more white powder than anyone else and they stand between us and the energy resources of West and Central Asia. My brother showed me an IDSA paper circa 1993. Whatever happens we have to go through them... I think I am beginning to see the point.."

The AG asked:"Can't we buy them off..."

The OC replied:"Yes but the money is not the problem. We pay them money but they have to reinvest that money in our economy or we end up bleeding out to them. Sure we can give them returns on investments but they have to pick and choose their investments carefully and they can't let their hostility dictate the nature of the investment."

The GS cut in:"So anything other than terrorist groups is fine?"

The OC replied: "Yes I should think so. Those terrorist groups are proving to be a frightful waste of money for everyone."

The Fourth spoke again: "The conflict economy has to be kept to a manageable size otherwise the regular economy will crumble and quality of life will suffer. They have to return the paper money to us or it will end up as an MI95 style accounting mess and there will be hell to pay for it."

The AG spoke:"This means escalations will be endemic.. how long will this go on.."

The OC replied:" Not really... there is entrenched hostility... so there has to be a language of escalation. There are folks taking this religious zealotry seriously and that leaves no alternatives."

The GS was a little disturbed: "What do you mean no alternatives?"

The Fourth boys spoke again:"Look its pretty simple - we have to have a stable pricing structure for the heroin and for the energy transit. The money that goes out that chain has to come back in as real investment into our industries and economy.. that is a rule they cannot break."

The AG spoke again:" But is it plausible to expect such maturity from a government composed of narcotics smugglers, nuclear armed terrorists and warlords?"

The OC jumped in:" Yes that is precisely why an escalatory structure is needed.. it is the only language they understand"

The GS began to sense that the OC and AG were in opposite camps:"So if we assume there are two alternatives - to escalate or not to escalate which one should a decision maker take?"

The Fourth stepped in at that point:"Well its all the same ... if you don't escalate they will .."

The AG seemed worried: "That means no real caps on the escalation - this could go on forever..."

The OC replied:"It will converge to a local escalation cut-off each time around... as long as they don't have unlimited reserves."

The AG was half incredulous: "Dude - that word escalation cut-off means anything under the sun.."

The Fourth chimed in:" Yes but that's precisely the point - they will define the thresholds and we will push the boundaries each time around... with each attempt their perimeter will shrink.. it is classic attrition warfare..."

The AG was quite close to exploding:" You think they are going to be dumb enough to follow us around on each iteration"

The Fourth responded:"Well they could splinter but then the groups would compete for power over there instead of leveraging against us - that could deflect their hostility inwards."

The OC replied:"Or they could always give up their compulsive hostility".

The Fourth was now even more candid:" Nuclear tests my a**... its their hostility that is not conducive to peace.."

The AG was about to say something but decided against it...

The GS looked the Fourth boy and smiled:"I see someone has been working on this on the side..."

The Fourth smiled:"Yep.. Gamed it when I was sixteen.. called it Operation Pralaya... "Judgement Day"... got laughed off the playground ofcourse.. but hey atleast I thought where it would all end."

The AG was now quite upset:"Which is where???"

The OC spoke quite calmly:"At the point where they choose to end it. And if they don't well then... our problems are solved by default - we can simply say sayonara to the lot of them..."

The AG was stunned: "I'd never thought I'd hear you say.. (turning to the GS who was comfortably polishing away his maggi noodles..) and you're comfortable with this..."

The GS simply replied:"Well the energy and heroin point being made... we have to do something... can't sit around either.. everyone like proactivity... heck junta whines endlessly when there is a terrorist attack.. a bit of show and tell could help to keep public pacified and if it makes the s*its-next-door think a little bit who can say that is such a bad thing.."

The AG replied:"It doesn't seem a trifle much to you?"

The fourth spoke with an air of finality:" What choice do we have.. heck we outgun them so why do we have to take c*ap from them at all!.. I say shoot 'em if they go too far.."

The OC replied:"Amen to that..."

The GS rolled his eyes skyward..."Inshallah.."

The AG shook his head...

and in the distance the Dean and the bureaucrat stared with considerable interest at the group with considerable interests...

The Bureaucrat spoke first: "What is it that they say... from the mouths of infants"..

The Dean replied:"Yes.. so it would appear..."

JTull
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Postby JTull » 18 Sep 2005 03:13

Sunil, that Maggi and Nescafe shop is indeed a blast from the past. Took me back more than a decade. Came across panthers on more occasions than Deans at that place. :)

Didn't think the GCs (or the rest of MI people of whom I was a part) ever cared for such things in our time there. There were few who were interested in discussions with me on anything remotely similar to what you just wrote. But then the N-tests may have had such an influence on the most videshis of desis.

VKumar
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Economy under siege

Postby VKumar » 18 Sep 2005 08:58

The economy of Pakistan was on the ascendant. Generous assistance from US and other western governments had helped. Exports of textiles were up, agriculture production had improved, water flow to Sind had risen due to the higher snow fall of last winter, and foreign inward remittances especially from NRP had contributed. The Karachi Stock index was touching 10,000. There was talk of matching the Indian growth rate.

But all this was before that stupid PN submarine decided to destroy the IN ship. After that all hell had broken loose. Indians had been attacking in every possible manner – air, sea and ground. Whatever desperate tactics the Pakis had employed on Reliance refinery, Bombay High, LNG carrier and now on the Russian plane hijack had all back-fired miserably. Pakistani losses were nearly unbearable. Ordinary people and especially the middle class, a fast growing segment was in panic. Inflation was already in double digits and galloping. The stock exchange had crashed to below 5000. Worse, trading volume was getting lower everyday, sellers were easily outnumbering buyers. The news on the street was that FIIs were liquidating their positions and trying to take out what foreign exchange they were permitted that another attack and the FIIs would exit the market enmasse.

And everybody knew what that meant...

Though it was just a short time since the start of hostilities, the Pakistani economy was nearing disarray. The successive losses of Pakistani armed forces were no secret to the people. Especially the Indian Army advance into Punjab had sapped the public morale.

The first thought of every person was to safeguard his savings; people were withdrawing their life savings and sending these abroad through the time honored hawala system. Already in the hawala market US$ had reached a premium of 40%. Signs were that the commercial banks were exhausting their cash reserves – statutory liquidity requirements and would any day be drawing on their statutory cash reserves with the Central Bank. Credit card companies had lowered their credit limits. Already there had been a run on banks in some areas of Punjab especially where the dreaded Indian Army was reported to be closing in.

The only saving grace was the foreign reserves, US$ 14 billion and rising, invested judiciously in a carefully risk weighted basket of instruments, currencies, banks and nations, but today the government had asked the central bank to begin converting treasury notes and bonds into cash – ostensibly to be ready to pay for replenishment of arms and ammunitions.

Mustafa Karar called his friend. Mustafa was the archetypical frontier war lord. Thanks to the over 10000 aggressive tribal warriors he led, Mustafa was a respected figure in the establishment, a minister in the provincial government with a voice at the centre. Mustafa had a simple economic reasoning – he earned from every source, whether it was drug smuggling from Afghanistan, shelter to Al Quieda, support to Pakistani troops, information to US spies, training of the stupid foreign and Punjabi jihadis who were ready to lay down their life for the so called Islamic leaders but actually drug lords, Mustafa collected from all. What distinguished Mustafa from other frontier warlords in the similar game were his western education and the shrewd money instincts he had inherited from his maternal side – a family of well known pathani money lenders. So, instead of blowing away his money like other tribal chieftains, Mustafa had invested his earnings. His accomplishments included was in developing a friendship with Haji Sutar, the fast rising Dy. Governor of Banking and Foreign Exchange in the State Bank of Pakistan, whose advice he sought in investing his wealth.

The State Bank of Pakistan is the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, banker to the Central government, sole authority to issue currency notes, manager of federal reserves both internal as well as external, and monitor and regulate commercial banking and so on.

Haji, an alumnus of Harvard Business School and Wall Street, was well respected for his foresight and innovative approach in investing the Pakistani foreign reserves. Well settled in a major investment bank on Wall Street, Haji had been persuaded by the President to take up this position. Already he had diversified the holdings from predominantly US$ into a basket of currencies, bonds, treasury notes, gold, oil bonds, shares of select foreign companies, and all this had a geographical dimension too , with Islamic nations being chosen for half the reserves. When it came to monitoring the cash value and trading to protect the value or to minimize the risk – political as well as investment, Haji Sutar had no peers. It was acknowledged that Haji would one day become the Governor and perhaps the finance minister.


Mustafa was troubled as never before. He had been closely following the progress of this war. The way the Indian Army had decimated the Pakistani Reserve Corps was an eye opener. Today, the ISI had called him to volunteer his 10000 men to fight the Indian Army and help stem their advance into the Pakistani heartland of Punjab. Mustafa knew that his men would be no match for the well armed and well trained, disciplined Indian Army, supported by the marauding Indian Air Force. He knew that his men were a good as dead should they join the battle, but he could not refuse the ISI his chief customer and patron of many decades, especially after the other chieftains had, in a rush of blood, foolishly volunteered their militia. Already his men were instigated by the accursed mullahs – Islam khatre mein hein – Islam is in danger - the call to the faithful had already been made and his men were straining to rush to the battle front. To save his men. Mustafa had reasoned with the ISI – try for a cease fire, get some time to regroup, get the US and UK to pressurize India to vacate Punjab. For without his men, Mustafa would no longer enjoy the same prestige and position. And he had not inherited his forefather’s privileges to sacrifice them for the sake of the Punjabis, who had always treated the frontier tribes like savages.

Sensing Mustafa’s reluctance to risk his position by shedding the blood of his warriors, and in a bid to exploit his well known greed, the ISI Brigadier had offered a payment in foreign exchange, payable in currencies of Mustafa’s choice deposited in countries and banks as required by Mustafa. The ISI knew that getting Mustafa’s support meant more than just many more warriors; it would help enlist the other chieftains and overcome any reluctance that the tribes from NWFP may have. Right now ISI was desperate enough to do anything to save the Punjabi motherland wrested over 60 years ago with so much difficulty from the hated baniyas, right now blood was required more than money!

Mustafa dialed Haji’s number on his cell phone and set up a dinner meeting.

Shankar
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Postby Shankar » 18 Sep 2005 13:25

A WEEK AFTER
-----------------
Operation Snowleopard as the kyrgystan episode will be refered to in military files came to a quite closure . Like all special forces operation not much details will ever be known . All real time footage of the actual operation was confiscated despite angry protests from the indian and russain media persons on board and they were very politely but very firmly requested not to discuss or publicise the mission in any way . But in days of internet and cyberworld such censorship hardly works and the world came to to know of it somewhat later than sooner . The fall out of this event will change the strategic balance inthe indian sub continent for ever and will lay the seeds of a much larger confrontation somewher in near future in the west and unfortunately in the eastern borders .

The details of all special forces action are always air brushed even by todays media simply because they are too brutal and too graphic for the normal tv viewer to digest -like the pulsating flow of cartoid blood when a victim is taken fromback with a hand clamped on his mouth to prevent screaming or for that matter the spalsh of yeallow grain brain matter on the tarmac when habib was ripped open frpm crotch to brain with automatic fire or the kidney stab with a 12 inch jagged knife and the sucking sound it makes as it comes out of the restraining flesh wound .
The shredded bodies of pakistani soldiers lying along the runway an all along the perimeter ,the effect of cluster munition on unprotected human flesh are after all not meant for all . The stench of decaying bodies six hours after the siege was briken and the cleaning effort required before even local airport sweepers could be allowed in.

So the media went back to familiar teritory that of politicians and big deals and lofty comments and super size stategic statements which fill up the news headlines . It is always impressive to talk about war on terror and ignore what is required to be done on ground to make it work .

A joint indo-russian task group was formed with 50/50 contribution from spetsnaz and national security guards to take care of future third country operations inthe central asian republics . They will be based in tajikistan with its own air and light armour resorces under the overall command of a russian genaral . The overall structure would be like delta force and will have commonality with both sas and delta in matters of communication protocol and weapon standerdisation .

India signed a defense protocol for manufacture of 4 squadrons of Tu-160 blackjack supersonic bombers duly mki sed with israeli avionics suite and french self defense gear .

China was not comfortable with the developments particularly at the success of joint indo-russian operations so close to its south western borders .Its leadership was yet undecided on course of action to take but but some thing was in the offing for sure -so thought senior indian intel officials from their ground inputs .

There was no mention of the incident in pakistani press as if it never happened . The dead bodies of pakistani special forces and air force personnel were burried inkyrgystan soil without much fanfare . Alocal mullah presided over the ceremony .

For the first time indian special forces felt the need for a small number of stealthy mediaum sized transporters . A basic discussion and research was initiated with russians on possibility of incorporating plasma based active stealth technogy in existing IL-76 s but the cost quoted was prohibitive and so kep pending for the time being.

Sunil
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Postby Sunil » 19 Sep 2005 20:37

JTull,

Please email me at breadomlette at yahoo dot com

Sunil
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Postby Sunil » 19 Sep 2005 21:14

They met again. It was summer of 2005 and it was the first time in seven years.

As the GS and the Fourth boy waited patiently sitting on the corner table of the Au Bon Pain restaurant, and the OC and the AG walked across Harvard square waving to them. Gone were the torn Tshirts, dirty jeans and the rubber slippers, the boys were now men and their clothes reflected the changed circumstances.

The GS was now employed in a large semiconductor company as an R&D leader. The OC was working as an executive in a major cigarette manufacturing company and the AG was a partner in a wall-street consulting company. The fourth was an unemployed graduate student who had just completed his Phd.

The overt focus and the harsh candor of the old "Cultural Affairs" team had now been displaced be a demure silence and a soft demeanor. Even personal lives had changed - casual sex had given way to a regime of meaningful relationships and alcohol was no longer the "best friend". You could have been forgiven for thinking that these people had mellowed out but under the polished look, the gelled hair and brushed teeth, the aggressive and sharp minds continued to function and though the circumstances differed the lust for power remained undiminished. Their conniving and ruthless political nature had merely found a new sheath, the beasts continued to live garbed in civility and a more human form.

As the throngs of Harvard undergraduates and assorted employees muddled about their daily routine, the four men settled into chairs in yet another coffee shop, some ten thousand miles away from the old one. The cigarettes were missing but the atmosphere was the same - the air of anticipation - the smell of some as yet unknown political and financial killing to made wafted through the air.

The GS began... "So how everyone been?"

replies muttered "fine, chalta hain,etc...."

The GS continued looking at the AG... "So congratulations on your escape.."

The AG smiled ... "Yes, I reached about 15 minutes too late. As I was walking off the ferry and heading towards the building the first airplane stuck. Others in my firm were not so lucky.."

The Fourth boy looked on with a sense of growing horror.."Wasn't tappy working with you?.. did he.."

The AG cast his eyes down and replied..."No I'm afraid he was in the office early."

The Fourth boy kept muttering..."I had no idea...I have been completely out of touch with the crowd"

The AG spoke somewhat grimly.." I arranged for the transport of the remains.. there was not much.." turning towards the silent OC.. the OC spoke "I helped with arrangements in India.. I was there at the time"

The GS spoke in a sober tone.."Yes, I was in London at the time and I could not travel for weeks."

The AG continued.."it was horrible there was complete panic I was worried sick that they would fire people but quite the opposite happened, we worked to keep the company operational and that actually saved our jobs.."

The OC chimed in.."Yep.. disgusting and yet the friendly neigbhorhood sh*ts got away with it... major non-Nato Ally... amazing... you know this smacks of the cr*p you-know-who pulled after MI95... he was in it up to his neck and then turned hell-around and pretended that he had nothing to do with any dirty stuff.. "

The Fourth boy agreed" Yes.. I agree.. its a total scam... if it was something small this would have been sustainable - this is simply not small. This nonsense cannot be kept up..."

The GS asked.."So when will it end?"

The Fourth replied..." When the political instability there reaches a tipping point - when the narcotics lords, the generals taxing the trade and the religious conservatives who accord the leaders their moral authority cannot reach a workable political contract."

The AG cut in.." Given that they have lost control over most of the transit of heroin out of the primary production areas. and they have way more people to pay off than money to do it with.. I don't see how any political contract can hold.."

The OC put in his two cents.." Foreign aid could help but the way it is given - and recycled leaves little room for real economic growth.."

The GS was a bit disturbed.."Whoa.. it appears everyone is all doom and gloom.. an aftershock of Parakram perhaps?"

The Fourth replied, "Parakram wasn't just an element of political theatre it was a clear signal that we were willing and able to climb the escalatory ladder. The fact that such theatre was necessitated indicates that the situation is quite unstable."

The AG spoke.." You see ultimately from our perspective things are exceedingly grim - people are openly talking about an energy crisis on the horizon. The economy has grown in size and the number of people consuming white powder heroin is growing with it. This means there is more demand and more cash outflow. That means they have a large pot of money - our money - sitting around in their hands. They have to remain convinced of the need to reinvest that in the growth of our economy."

The OC : " Our current hosts are only interested in gaining greater leverage in the our markets. They will look to control our access to the sources of energy and heroin. That tendency forces them to seek a concord with the neighborhood sh*ts even if the costs of such an engagement are very high."

The GS spoke:"With all due deference to their hospitality, our hosts have a major problem - their economy is over capitalized, they have severe debt management problems at the national level. They can only sell their debt on the promise of a return in the future and that requires that they have complete control or unimaginable leverage in things like energy, heroin, arms etc..."

The AG:" As usual however they have no clue what will happen if they continually obstruct our access to key resources. They are living under the impression that somehow they will be able to induce a financial crisis in India and magically with the help of their institutional investors organize a bailout which somehow make the political establishment beholden to them."

The Fourth man spoke: "Yes, they rely too heavily on our neighbors to give them inputs on our needs and responses. Our neighbors have a weak grasp - they do not understand what they need - much less what we need. In the next few years they are going to have to renegotiate their water sharing agreement with us. We will need energy. Our current hosts want to make sure that if we make any deal with the neighbors .. there is something in it for everyone and it isn't just between the two of us. The same applies to these pipeline deals. It is a shakedown."

The AG asked: "So what happens if we don't have access to energy through the neighbors house?"

The Fourth man replied:"Actually I think it is more a question of electricity, if we are denied access to natural gas at a reasonable price, we will be forced to burn coal and that means that our carbon dioxide emissions will rise rapidly. Any global climate change will become a reality. Alternatively we could push the nuclear fuels market and somehow procure enough fuel to run our reactors. Eitherways we will have to have something from our current hosts to go with - either nuclear fuel or clean coal technology otherwise we will be left with no option but to punch a hole through the neighbors house"

The OC replied:"That is not going to make our hosts happy.."

The Fourth man replied " I know that all too well but again where are the alternatives to aggresive behavoir here? its not like the neighbors are going to just drop down and give it to us. They are completely hostage to their hostility."

The AG cut in:"It is still not going to make our hosts happy.."

The Fourth man took a different tack:"Well the way I see it, the hosts are addicted to a culture of control over capital. Any act of independence on our part is going to hurt them. In fact going through our neighbors house would ease the pressure on them on several fronts. I admit this will not come without pain as the political order there will get a severe shock from our going through their house but compare that with the situation that will occur if we don't go through their house?"

The GS replied: "That sounds complicated. If we go through that mess - then we are forced to deal with it. Once we overtly defy our hosts - I venture their hospitality will end and most likely the neighbors will attempt to transmit their political costs to our hosts."

The Fourth man replied: "Indeed they will.. aakhir neighbors kiskey hain?... so from the point of view of our hosts... what it boils down to is where is the political cost the least. Either they relax the restrictions they have set on nuclear energy cooperation with us and handle the domestic political uproar and the international political mess that will follow. Or they block our access to nuclear fuel and then force our hand next door. "

The OC joined in." Already the mere talk of the transit of an energy pipeline has sparked off intense competition, people are falling over themselves to promise cheaper rates for negotiation and mind you that is negotiation alone, no one is making any mention of a deal. Every visitor from that place talks of getting us a favorable audience.. what timepass."

The GS replied:"well our hosts could always give us the clean coal tech they keep talking about. Frankly I have never believed a word of that. I don't think they believe it either. It is simply something they keep talking about but have no intention of acting on. "

The AG was now taking a more cynical tone:" One could be forgiven for thinking that our hosts create global conflicts with the sole aim of shaking down people they don't have a direct conflict with. They keep accusing us of supporting people that don't like them... and while I agree that our energy suppliers haven't been friendly to them - their heroin supplier hasn't been friendly to us."

The Fourth man cut in:"I really don't care - I think our hosts lack a cultural acclimation to the world, and hence they need something pretty random to base their world view on. I don't think they care about anything besides immediate capital gain. So long as the promise of that is credibly held out they can be induced to do anything and why blame them - we aren't much different. So they can either give us the nuclear fuel we need or watch as we go through our neighbors house with all the attendant consequences. Ofcourse the sh*ts next door will never understand this, they will complain endlessly if we fuel and they will complain endlessly if we try to go through their house. At the end of that they will look like a bunch of whiners and that means they will commit themselves to yet another cycle of escalation."

The OC laughed "To think we have a peace process on now..."

The AG replied "Yes every peace carries within it the dormant seed of war, and every war gives way to a false peace..."

The GS smiled, "Calls to mind a poem by Khushal Khan Khattak...

Shereen omr che terezhi dregha dregha,
De obo pasay baiezhai dregha dregha,
Da yaran laka goloona de bahar dee,
Da khazan pa ta razhezhee dregha dregha.

Sweet Life that passes by slowly slowly,
Like Water it flows slowly slowly,
Friends are the flowers of spring,
They follow the path of autumn slowly slowly..
"
The Fourth man reached for his coffee.. "I see someone still reads Pashto poetry.."

The GS smiled and replied..."Only in my spare time..."
Last edited by Sunil on 20 Sep 2005 02:28, edited 6 times in total.

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Postby Anand K » 19 Sep 2005 22:32

Hmmmmm,
David Lynch meets "Tanha Dil... Tanha Safar" :)
Just got to figure out some of the protagoinsts.........that is, if something is implied!

A rather nice way of introducing the commenators to the unfolding story, go on...

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Postby Dileep » 21 Sep 2005 20:31

Khitan-e-Thunder

Pakistan's achievements in aircraft engineering were a matter of pride to them and to an extent a matter of ridicule with Indians. Especially, certain disreputable internet fora has the habit of regularly thrashing the Pakistani Aeronautical Complex and its activities. Flame wars between Pakistanis and Indians are a frequent occurrence even on the rather reputed forums, forcing the admins to warn, reprimand and ban a number of members. At the center stage of this was the fighter aircraft JF-17 also called Thunder. This was a prestige project by the PAC, intended to be a 4th generation all-weather, multipurpose light fighter aircraft. The main purpose was to serve as the backbone of the air defence of Pakistan, and to an extent replace the F-16 on that role. The project is touted as a joint development with the Chinese, where Pakistan claimed major technical contribution. However, most of these claims went unverified.

The Chengdu Aircraft Industry Company [CAIC], based in Sichuan Province of China is the second largest fighter production base. The FC-1 fighter programme was started by them allegedly based on a rejected design by Russia's Mikoyan Aero-Science Production Group named MiG-33. The contract to develop a Pakistani version JF-17 was signed in 1998. The FC-1 made its formal debut at China's Fourth International Air Show scheduled November 4 to 7, 2002, in Zhuhai, the nearest mainland city to Macao. The first flight-test happened on 25 August 2003. The serial production jointly started at the Pakistan Aeronautical Complex at Kamra and the Chengdu Aircraft plant in 2006. The first lot of fully assembled planes arrived in Pakistan in late 2007 with much fanfare. At the start of hostilities between India and Pakistan in 2008, it was believed that Pakistan have upto 30 JF-17s. None of them were seen the air battles yet. It is not clear whether any of them were present at Sargodha when the massive destructive attack happened. The general belief was that they were not

The JF-17 is branded as a lightweight, high-performance, multirole attack fighter aircraft featuring fly-by-wire (FBW) flight-control, beyond-vision-range (BVR) combat capability and excellent aerodynamic performance. The aircraft has delta wings and a conventional tail, and is capable of aerial refuelling . It has 7 stores stations, including one under the fuselage, 4 under the wings, and 2 wingtip mounted, with up to 3,800kg weapon payload. It carried an assortment of missiles, including the HATF-XII Shershah BVRAAM which President Kareen Khan proudly unveiled as an indigenous development. It was however immediately recognized as a version of the PL-12 Pen Lung Medium range AAM. With the unveiling of the missile in early 2008, President Kareen Khan had claimed parity with India's R-77 BVRAAM. It was assumed that this missile has been only in limited production and was integrated with only the JF-17 aircraft.

The JF-17 Thunder was originally targeted to have European avionics, but due to various sanctions, that plan was dropped. A Chinese avionics suite was installed instead. It carried the Nu Hu NH-101 Multimode Radar, Shou Hu SH-11 EW suite and Huo Shan MFD/HUD system. It had a dual redundant Fly-By-Wire flight control system with a 32 bit flight control computer. It was originally planned to be powered by the RD-93 turbofan engine. However, Russia has denied permission to re export the engines from China, so the aircraft delivered to Pakistan used the Chinese WS-13 Taishan engine.

The Indian Airforce did have concerns about the JF-17 and the Shershah missile. The radar signatures of either was more or less unknown. The intelligence resources on the ground did provide digitized samples of signals captured during test flights, and ARDE has provided tentative updates based on them. But that gave only some confidence. The JF-17, according to open source information had a shaded air intake, eliminating the fan blade visibility from outside. There was also claims of stealth, some even ridiculously sci-fi. The pilots were specially asked to look out for unknown sightings and signals. As the war progressed, and an estimated one third of the Pakistani Airforce gone, it was expected to see the JF-17 to make its debut soon. The Indian pilots looked forward to that day where they hoped to call the Paki Bluff.

It was not only the Indian Airforce looked forward to the coming out of the JF-17. Certain pro-india internet forum was filled with posts speculating about the aircraft and its debut. One resourceful member coined the term "Khitan-e-Thunder" (Ritual Circumcision of Thunder) for the event. It is immediately picked up and even the Air Force personnel started using it in informal conversations. The Pakistani forums too were very anxiously awaiting it, expecting it to be the magic bullet to defeat the formidable Indian Air force.

And the fateful day dawned...

To be continued.

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 09:49

Khitan-e-Thunder-II

One by one, the four MiG-29s took off from the forward airbase in the Rajasthan desert. Long pairs of plumes of afterburner flames gave way to a slightly smoky contrails as the thunderous roar of the RD-33s faded in the distance. The Eagles climbed to 10,000ft and took a heading of 260, to their assigned area to provide top cover for the floggers on a mission to pound the defenses of the city of Multan. The rendezvous point was above the town of Pakpattan, which is now the forward base for the advancing Indian army. A Phalcon, accompanied by its contingent of bodyguards stood watch over southern Punjab, It could see well over Multan, and not a soul was stirring over the Pakistani airspace this morning. The phalcon AEW&C platform was the backbone of the Indian air warfare. Made by the Israel Aircraft Industries company, the system built on an IL-76 aircraft was in fact the eye in the sky. A phalcon flying within the Indian airspace can cover almost the entire width of Pakistan.

The Eagle flight reached the bull's eye and started their patrol, over a track in southwesterly direction, roughly aligning with the main highway. The Army below was preparing for the next thrust, which needs some softening up of the defenses of the city of Multan. The floggers are expected to roar in anytime. The fully loaded fearsome attack aircraft are configured purely for ground attack with conventional and laser guided bombs, so protecting them from any misadventure by the PAF was the responsibility of the eagles. They were equipped for air superiority role today, with four R-73s and two R-27s on the hard points. The formidable GSh-30 cannon, with a full load lay waiting in the belly of the aircraft. They were flying radar silent, relying upon the watchful eye of the Phalcon to cover them. The state of the art EW suite with the latest software update kept its ears open for any threats.

- phalcon1, eagle 1. I read unknown emission at two niner zero.
- eagle 1, phalcon1; negative, we don't read anything yet.
- roger that phalcon1, permission to go active search.

The permission being granted, Sq. Ldr Kamath commanding eagle flight, advised his wings to break track to a heading 290. He turned on his radar, selecting four bars with 20 degrees azimuth scan. In a split second the screen updated with a single unknown track. In a few more seconds, they resolved into four tracks. It took another couple more seconds for the new algorithms to kick in and resolve the threat.

- phalcon1, eagle 1. reading four ship suspected JF-17, heading zero seven zero 110km.
- roger that eagle 1. We are closing in to range. Engage the bandits. Good hunting.

The giant IL-76 was already moving towards the area, closing fast. She crossed over the international border and entered Pakistani airspace. That was just a technicality, because the area was now under Indian control. As a precaution a bison CAP over Punjab was diverted close to the phalcon. Also, another fulcrum flight was arranged under priority to back up and assume the cover for the floggers who are about to start their run now. They were asked to hold short of the boarder to wait the fulcrums.

Within a few minutes the powerful radar of the phalcon started picking up the echoes from the enemy, and the threat library gave a match to the speculated JF-17 signature.

A brief message flashed over the secured satcom link from the phalcon to the higher up commands. The
"Khitan-e-Thunder" is underway.

To be continued.
Last edited by Dileep on 22 Sep 2005 19:11, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby VruDesh » 22 Sep 2005 13:48

[quote="Dileep"] Khitan-e-Thunder-II

A Phalcon, accompanied by its contingent of Bisons stood watch over southern Punjab


Shouldn't the Phalcon be protected by a more advanced CAP like the Su-30 MKI or the Fulcrums rather then the Bisons ?

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Postby daulat » 22 Sep 2005 13:55

Bisons will not be covering Midas, too short legged (30-45m effective sorties if I remember correctly). Its got to be Su30's, or atleast relays of Mirage 2000's. Possibly MiG29's but they also have a short legged issue

Bisons should be excellent at point interception/defence

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Postby Singha » 22 Sep 2005 13:59

IAF Mig29s do have external fuel tanks.

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Postby Shankar » 22 Sep 2005 15:54

Phalcons will most likely have su-30 k as escorts and IL-78 s most likely will operate in the vicinity so that same escort can protect both .Most likely they will be flying the standard race track patterns over some forward air base therby having the flexibility of calling up short term heavy escort group the moment a threat develpos . If Su 30 not available for any reason it will most likely be fulcrums with drop tanks

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 19:08

Guys,

Thanx for the advices. Will edit the post accordingly. I am sure the rest of the story too will have a lot of inconsistencies, and your expert comments are requested.

Because of my "facts handicap", I initially thought of a joint development of this idea like the pabbi episode, but decided to give it a shot anyways. Anyway here goes the next instalment:

Khitan-e-Thunder-III

There was certain amount of audacity in PAF's decision to send a single flight of JF-17s up to match with an equal number of fulcrums. The chinese claim of the JF-17 being superior has to do something with it, but the basic nature of the Pakistani forces contributed more. By all account the commanders of PAF at Quetta believed that a superior JF-17 piloted by the superior Pakistani pilots would carry the day.

Within less than five minutes of the initial detection, both the Thunders and Fulcrums came within range for positive tracking. It was kind of a game of chicken, where the two formidable flights raced at each other, with the radars blazing out full power. Then the phalcon came online.

- eagle flight, phalcon1. We are in position. Tracking four ship JF-17 bulls eye zero seven zero range ninety at seven thousand. You are cleared to go.

The wingmen broke away, leaving Kamath to do the first strike. The radar sent out a narrow pencil beam and calculated the targeting information. Navigational information sped to the R-27s waiting impatiently for the kill. They gnarled with pleasure in his earpiece. The receivers with the enemy aircraft would have sensed this activity and warned the enemy pilot. It came to light that he was doing the same activity as the tone of the RWR changed and the MFD shown unknown signal lock. The intelligence sources, however hard they work, could not get a sample of the radar lock signal, and the estimation by ARDE engineers was not good enough for a threat match. That did not really matter now, because there was no sorting to be done here. All you have on your scope were the four JF-17s, and all the Indian pilots knew about the existence of the HATF-XII Shershah missile. Any radar lock at this range could only mean that the Shershah is on the prowl. If it is as good as the Pakistani Air force was claiming, Kamath had no chance.

The HATF-XII Shershah was a very typical Pakistani armament. It was a chinese design, which itself is a copy of the Russian R-77 missile, which NATO called AA-12 Adder. As tradition warranted, the Americans nicknamed the R-77 AMRAAMski, claiming it is a copy of or inspired from their AMRAAM. The Chinese named it Pen Lung (Air Dragon) PL-12. They never gave the original PL-12 design to Pakistan. Instead a new version was delivered, which Pakistan claimed to have indegeneously developed, and inducted after a single highly publicized test. It created a huge buzz in the internet fora focussing on the Indian and Pakistani defense issues. The specifications of the Shershah was never published, except the claim by President Kareen Khan that it is better than India's R-77. However, anyone and everyone who could google up missile specs created their own and posted all over the fora.

Kamath knew the time has come for all those speculations, to which he himself has contributed under an alias, to be put to rest. The proof is in the pudding, and here is a double whammy. Both the JF-17 Aircraft and the BVR missile it carried has never seen combat and was always veiled under secrecy, with a lot of claims of performance. It is crunch time now, and in the coming couple of minutes there will no longer be any secrets on those.

To be continued..

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Postby Shalav » 22 Sep 2005 19:47

...The aircraft has delta wings and a conventional tail, and is capable of aerial refuelling ...

The JF-17, according to open source information had a shaded air intake, eliminating the fan blade visibility from outside.


a) Technically the wings would be defined as cropped deltas. You could also add a bit about Leading Edge Root eXtensions (LERX).

b) Shaded air intake = diverterless supersonic intakes or DSI. Thats what its supposed to have.

Just some suggestions.

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Postby Ravi » 22 Sep 2005 20:07

Dileep dude eagerly waiting for the conclusion please make it quick man

send this story to a producer and he will do pooja to you.

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 20:15

The bottom line of this story is to get the Thunder out and do Khitan to it. The rest of the story can be anything, any way.

The story I am writing is based on my very limited imagination. I request contribution from all the gurus so that we can have a good story that has both the facts right and the action exciting.

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 20:18

Here is the concluding part:

Khitan-e-Thunder-IV

Kamath unbridled the pair of R-27s. "fox-three; fox-three" and the beasts jumped out from the rail, igniting with crystal precision and accelerating to begin the programmed flight path. He then broke left and dived shallow, immediately switching his radar to four bars maximum coverage. As if in response the JF-17 flight also broke up, with their lead mirroring with a break and dive. The headset still blared the radar lock, and the two enemy missiles started tracking on the screen. As Kamath almost finished the dive and about to start the next climb maneuver, he heard the Fox-3 calls from his colleague, indicating another encounter.

Now he could see the two missiles on his scope. At the speculated mach-3 speed of the Shershah, he has hardly a minute and a half to dodge the missiles. He started an evasive procedure to be used against the R-77 instinctively.


There are a number of suggested evasive maneuvers to dodge a BVR missile. Hardly any was ever used in actual combat. They were done mostly on simulators. The basic principles are always the same. Confuse the seeker, decoy the aircraft, outrun the missile. For a long range radar homing missile like the R-77 that will include reduction of radar return to the missile, use of chaff to provide false radar reflection, and turn like hell to force the missile to follow, making it run out of energy. Then there is Electronic Counter Measures to jam or mislead the radar receivers.

The R-77 is active radar homing, so the firing aircraft don't have to keep painting the traget. The R-27 missile Kamath has fired on the other hand needs guidance from the firing aircraft till the final phase of flight. That kind of restricts the evasive maneuvers. However, Kamath had better ideas.

Kamath finished the shallow dive and straightened up. Then he made a half roll, totally abandoning radar lock on his adversary, hit the burners and made an arcing upward angle loop. The ECM pod carried by the fulcrum has already detected the threat. As expected, the signature of the Shershah's radar was not familiar to the tiny but powerful DSP in the pod. However, a heuristic threat resolution algorithm developed by LRDE immediately took over. A stream of aluminized mylar chaff came out of the dispensers. A signal with cleverly modified frequency was emitted by the pod, which misled the Shershah into thinking that the Fulcrum is turning the opposite way.

The loop put Kamath broadside from the incoming missile, but also abandoned radar guidance to his own missile. He mentally counted the seconds. At the last moment, he recovered from the roll and pulled the stick back hard, deployed his airbrakes and cut throttle to idle. The plane shuddered like it hit a brick wall, but he found with satisfaction that the enemy missile lock was gone now. With a hard rudder he turned himself to the enemy, and hit him with radar full power. That was in perfect timing. The R-27 that was about to give up re aquired the signal, turned and found its quarry on its own radar seeker. It started its active homing phase. Within seconds, four fireballs resulted. Three of them had no effect, but the last one scored the first ever JF-17 kill. Kamath turned around, looking for others. Then another pair of fireballs erupted, where a JF-17 and a fulcrum killed each other.

Kamath looked around to see what is going on with the others. He had not heard it, but while he was busy dodging the Shershah, another pair of engagement had started. This time both aircraft was successful in dodging the enemy missiles. That gave Kamath the chance to close in. He broke to the right on a wide lag pursuit. The enemy aircraft was still recovering from the high G turn that saved his life. Kamath noticed with a little bit of surprise that the JF-17, despite all the claims by the Pakistanis and the Chinese, is no way close to the F-16 in maneuverability. The JF-17 finished the turn and tried to turn around. Kamath expertly followed him, and the enemy overshot. Utilizing the helmet cueing system, Kamath fired off a pair of R-73s, while still matching his turn.

The JF-17 tried hard to dodge the missile. The sky lit up with flares, but the seeker of the R-73 was not fooled. Within seconds, the JF-17 exploded in a fireball. "Splash three" reported Kamath. He turned his head to look for the fourth JF-17, and witnessed an unbelievable scene. The Pakistani Pilot turned his tail and ran like hell under afterburner. He had not fired even one missile.

-nice job eagle flight. You are cleared to fly back to base.

The fulcrums turned around, got back to formation and started their flight back. The phalcon also turned around, moving back to the Indian Airspace. The backup flight of fulcrums started their patrol and the floggers their pounding.

The debut of the well hyped JF-17 and Shershah ended in a 3 to 1 loss to the Indian MiG-29s. The Khitan is done, and the recovery is painful.

Concluded.
Last edited by Dileep on 28 Sep 2005 06:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby JCage » 22 Sep 2005 20:43

No self protection jammers? Whats all 'em Elta 8222's for?

The R-27 homes in on reflected radar energy from the FCR beaming onto the target, so your description of breaking a lock and then re-acquiring it, seems possible in a manner of speaking, though to be honest I have not seen a description of such a tactic anywhere.

The R-27 has a proximity fuse, could be called a radar seeker.

The key to BVR protection would be the effective use of SPJ's to throw the FC-1's FCR off kilter.

JMHO.

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Postby VruDesh » 22 Sep 2005 21:43

[quote="Dileep"]Here is the concluding part:

Khitan-e-Thunder-IV

Kamath unbridled the pair of R-27s. "


Just a doubt......
Doesn't the Mig 29 have the R-77.Don't the bisons have them now ?

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 21:49

Nitin,

You noticed! The break and reaquire is honestly my invention. That is why you wouldn't see anywhere else. Will that work? I don't have the faintest clue!!!

The proximity fuze is called radar seeker in some of the docs I researched. Somehow the phrase proximity fuze didn't fit there :-?

And honestly, I didn't know about the Eltas. I will look'em up and maybe add a mention to them too. Or better if you want to edit, just post or e-mail me the modified text. (dileepks at hotpop dot com)

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Postby Dileep » 22 Sep 2005 21:52

Doesn't the Mig 29 have the R-77.Don't the bisons have them now ?

Yes they do, but then Kamath can't demonstrate the Dileep's break and reaquire maneuver :twisted:

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Postby Ravi » 22 Sep 2005 23:47

Shankar,

You are the master. I was reading the attack on sargodha and it is very well put. I am not a master of all the technical terms but the carbon bombs you were using to black out the power and radar really interested me very much.

Just as a compliment "you da man"

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Postby AJay » 23 Sep 2005 09:43

Sunil wrote:...but the shed had housed a coffee shop that sold instant coffee, a plate of maggi noodles, and chocolates for a while now. The shed was surrounded by a small patch of open ground where there were plastic chairs and tables and a few large umbrellas that cover the same.


Has "Dargah" gone out of fashion now or has it closed down altogether? Once a bunch of my calssmates were out there at around 1AM and the direcors of both places that have lake addresses came by to have a night tea. I could alomost imagine the surprise on the faces of the both groups.

I hear that the pipeline road is gated and there are guards checking vehicles going through. I used to take a liesurely walk of 25 minutes by that road to get to the back gate of IITB, meet up with my firends and go get some veggie fried rice at the dhaba by the side of swimming pool.

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Postby AJay » 23 Sep 2005 10:01

Anoop wrote:Shivi is Karna. It is a detail that Shivi happened to fight on the 'good' side. Like Karna, he used his Brahmastra once to fell (Pak) 2 Corps' 6 Armd Div (Ghatotkacha),


A small nit - it is Vajra that Karna uses to kill Ghatotkatcha. The real siginficance (IMHumbleO) in Mahabharatha of that story is to bring out the strength of character of Karna and also ties in nicely with Dhadhichi's scarifice - Vajra is fashioned out of his spine.
While Karna's sacrifice to protect his principle is great, Dhadhichi's sacrifice is even greater for the good of many of his compatriots in that he did not merely cut parts of his body off - he simply ceased to exist so that terrible weapon can be made to defeat Vritra.

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Postby Singha » 23 Sep 2005 11:21

a wee bit unrealistic for such canteen talk. I expect would focus on giving gaali to profs, moaning about the next exam, GRE/CAT/jobs, mess food and ofcourse matters related to the ladies hostel ;)

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Postby Shankar » 23 Sep 2005 12:51

PRESIDENTS OFFICE -KREMLIN -MOSCOW
--------------------------------------------------
The president of russia was not a person to telegraph his intention all over the world .The abortive attempt to hijack The Tupolev did not go down well with him at all and that to in his backyard . A time has come for for some demonstration fo russian might ,thought he as he looked at his air chief and indian military attache over the map of southern pakistan. Abrief conversation with his good friend in oval office has ensured ther would be no interfearence with the proposed opertion . As he listened to the joint briefing he felt good after a long long time . At last the time has come to show the world what an angry russian bear can do . Convincing white house took much less effort that anticipated - a clear indiaction the world is getting very very tired of the mad state of pakistan .

PRESIDENTS OFFICE -ISLAMABAD -PAKISTAN
--------------------------------------------------------
Kareen khan was comparitively relaxed . The expected indo-russian reprisal strike has not come and may be the russians have prevailed upon the indians not retaliate in a massive way like sargodha strike to prevent a nuclear threshold breach was what was in pakistan presidents mind as he looked over the daily reports of war which was not going very well for pakistan with a big chunk of punjab lost and substantial advance of indian armour in sindh some serious counterstrike was the need of the hour. The indian naval blockade was hurting his economy real bad and the hard curency reserves presently stood at 1 months import .If not for generous financial support from saudi arabia and syria the state of pakistan would have gone bankrupt long back.

Surprisingly indians have not stuck karachi this time like in 1971 -may be they dont want risk their fancy carriers in a frontal assault or may be they just want to enforce a blockade without direct ly chalenging the navys strike capability o close to shores .

Vikramaditya would be nice and fat target -its sinking will demoralise not just the indian navy but all her armed forces and rebuid his image as a great strategist thought kareen khan . Maybe some day islamic navies would name a carrier class in his honour like Chester Nimitz

-Morning Mr President ,wished the viec admiral as he entered the presidents ofice with his aides and the planning for destruction of INS Vikramaditya started in earnest . First item on agenda was mode of attack and then launch base .After several hours of heated discussion interspaced with butter soft chiken tikkas and rasmalai , a favourite of Kareen khan the naval team left grim faced . Heart in heart they did not want to do this but no one had the guts to speak out to the supreme comander .

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Postby dwaipayan » 23 Sep 2005 13:32

Whenever I come across this thread, I tend to laugh. Do you guys thank that I am crazy or I have gone mad? No, I am not. I am perfectly okay. The reason why I taunt at this thread is that as long as India is ruled by some incapable leaders like Atal Bajpayee and others or even the Kind of Intellectual Prime Minister Dr. Manmonhon Singh and the so-called Non-Aligned Warrior Mr. Natwar Singh, India will never go to war even if a puny country like Bangladesh's Border Forces ( BDR ) mutilate the BSF soldiers and kill them mercilessly.

I am not taunting at the whole Military scenery written by Mr. Singha and inputs added by others. I am Taunting at the Indian Leadership. Our idiot Foreign Minister last year - while visiting South Korea - asserted in the face of poignant questions from his South Korean counterparts as to why India detonated Nuclear Devices in 1998 that the Nuclear test issue was related to the previous Government. not to Congress. Recently while visiting Bangladesh, he was checkmated by his Bangladeshi Government. As long as our India continues to be ruled by such incompetent leaders, whatever number of Nuclear Bombs (over 100 or 400) India possesses, whether India deploys IDBM, SLBM< SLCM, Aircraft Carriers, N-Submarines, India will continue to be battered by Pakistan, China, even by a tiny neighbour Bangladesh, let alone the other super-powers.

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Postby Shankar » 23 Sep 2005 14:41

CARTOSAT -3 1000 KMS OVER SOUTHERN PAKISTAN
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She watched and photographed and relayed them back to ground in endless cycles of robotic survilence . Unnamed photo analysts studied the digitised information and acted on it . The karachi harbour with its plethora of surface ships and sub pens and the adjacent PAF base showed usal war time activities . The no of aircrafts on tarmac was somewhat high .Brijesh zoomed in and could barely make out the shape of large missiles being upoaded and the fuel trucks parked nearby . He decided to call up the senior air intel officer and picked up the secured phone .

PAF BASE MASROOR
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Group capatain Mansoor khan looked at his watch and knew the indian satelite pass should be over in few minutes . Bulk of his assets were still in the hard shelters in satelite air bases and could join only after the satelite recon nuisance is over . Atlast he decided to act and gave the command over underground fibre optic data link to begin operation Midway . The small airbases that surround karachi came to life and almost 3 squadrons of Mirages started arriving for arming and final briefing for a dusk strike on the high seas .

The chineese satelite image barely 12 hrs old have given him an approximate position of the target flotila some 150 kms south west of karachi centred around the vaunted indian navy carrier Vikramaditya .
PAF Masroor the largets and one of the most important airbases in pakistan derived its original name Mauripur from a small coastal village near the coastal airfield . The name was changed after Masroor after air commodore Masroor Hosain killed in a bird strike incident during operational exercise while flyinga B-57 . The strategic importance of this base because of proximity to arabian sea sea routes is very high and also entrusted with air defense of southern pakistan. All these made it an ideal staging post for the grand maritime strike operation in the offing .

INS VIKRAMADITYA -SOMEWHERE IN ARABIAN SEA
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She ruled the waves and did so majestically and without modesty . Escorted always by INS Mumbai and INS Mysore along with a flotila of frigates and a few kilo and asingle HDW screening the surface under she knew she was impregnable . But compalcency never entered the minds of those who sailed her -surprise was her worst enemy

The blockade of pakisatni coastline was as fool proof as it can be . So far no untoward incident has occured with USS Carl Vincent carrier group operating 550 kms north west .

RUSSIAN AIRFORCE BASE -SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN RUSSIA
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The 4 Tu -160 s have not gone back and four more have joined them .The dismantling of gas spray mechanisms was complete and now they were loaded up with weapons they were designed to carry to a faraway target whose name most russian pilots didnot even know few hours back. But the orders were very clear -destruction should be complete the cost imaterial .Only constarint -no nukes .

It take a long time for the black jacks to load up and the pilots passed theirtime playing chess and looking at not so decent american movies on CD. Mission briefing would be starting in an hour.

INS VIKRAMADITYA
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the single mig 29k landed on the flight deck with a thud as th arrestor wires plucked her out of flight even with the engines on full power . The pilot came out after a few minutes wearing the insignia of an air commodore and led straight away to the bridge . Few minutes later all concerned was ensconed in the mission brief centre two levels below .On the flight deck things continued as usal -as usal as it can be in times of war.

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Postby Shankar » 23 Sep 2005 17:07

PAF BASE MASROOR -KARACHI
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The tarmac looked like a fish bazar thought group captain Mansoor khan as he looked at the long line of Mirages parked in neat rows in preparation for a saturation strike interspaced with fuel tankers and weapon trolleys apparently moving around in toal chaos while in reality it was operating as per a carefully choreographed sequence of arming and fuelling the 3 squadrons of mirage 3/5 s for a "surprise " saturation attack on the prwling indian carrier group some way off the pakisatni coast i international water. After a long verbal duel at last he has been assured top cover by 8 of the remaining falcons and they should be ariiving anytime .

Mansoor khan did not feel very comfortable -no one would with so much of air assets sitting on ground being fuelled and armed but then co ordinating a multi squadron maritime strike opearting from different bases was simply beyond the capability of PAF particulary now . They had to take a gamble of few hours and was ready to loose afew aircraft in case of an indian surpprise strike . A full CAP of 4 mirage and 2 falons were in the air and he expected a decent warning at least . The expected launch window will be between 1600 and 1700 hrs PST .

Pakistan bought 50 ex austarlian air force mirages under project ROSE (retroit iof strike element )Out of these 50 airframes about 40 were upgraded with head up dispaly ,hands on throttle and stick controls,radar warning reciever ,automated chaff/flare dispensers and Griffo M italian air search/track radar . It has limited look down shoot down capability and somewhat similar to APG 68 ..Some of the airframes needed wing replacements and that was done by purchase of new wings from south african airforce and mating them to australian mirages .

All the mirages were loaded with exocet anti ship missiles . In all about 24 mirages were to take part in the first wave and followed by 12 in second wave carrying dumb bombs . If a hit on the capital ship is achieved the first wave will re arm and refuel for a second go . It was almost a fool proof plan .

Initially a radio silent mission was planned but later discarded as being too risky but pilots were told be very frugal in use of radio transmission .
One by one the the sleek mirages were getting ready for the momentous strike and the fuelling and ammo trolleys moved down the long line

INS VIKRAMADITYA - SOEMWHERE IN ARABIAN SEA
---------------------------------------------------------------
The deck heeled under as the massive carrier made a sharp course change and increased engine revolutions to max sustainable as she veered away from the pakisatni cooast line and took a south westerly track .Increasing the distance every minute . Only 2 mig 29 ks were on combat air patrol the rest armed and ready just sat and waited .

The chineese satelite on the next pass will find an empty ocean -no wake of a multi ship convoy to tell their westernly friends.

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Postby joy_roy » 23 Sep 2005 18:24

Isnt it a bit too much risky for IN to operate with INS Vikramaditya carrier task force only 150 kms away from pak coast?I dont think they have to be that close for a blockade.

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Postby Sunil » 23 Sep 2005 19:50

Guys,

It is a simulated conversation. It never happened in reality - the references to real places and real events are only place-setters. i.e ignore that part and focus on the text. A reading of the text will show where the policy of provocation becomes necessary and the manner in which the provocations will end.

Dwaipayan,

I tend to ask myself a simple question, are the deaths of a few BSF soldiers enough to make me want to invade Bangladesh? Would I really want to burden myself with the millions of refugees and starving Bangladeshis that would remain there after the euphoria of the invasion has subsided? Do I really want to be saddled with the cost of that? The answer is - no - I cannot bring myself to make such a trade - the lives of a dozen BSF KIA will have to be ignored.

There are things however - energy and heroin - bulk price fluctuations in these which could create grave economic harm to our national economy. To control the bulk prices of these I would be willing to go to any means necessary to secure this. If a simple fellow with little or no exposure to the mechanics of policy making can understand this. Surely someone with years of fighting elections in an environment infested with underworld money flows should understand this instantly. If a nobody like me is aware of the magnitude of the problems that can be caused by bulk fluctuations of energy - then surely a former bureaucrat from the minister of finance should also understand this? Food for thought.

The problem with this thread has been that people have focussed on the tactical end of things to portray a sizable confrontation with Pakistan. Considerable amounts of time has been spent here describing to great technical detail several different weapons systems, and intricate battle scenarios. However little or no time has been spent discussing the political costs calculations of the war. No real geopolitical rationale is being given for the war. No political reasoning is given for the war and no political oversight calculation is developed here. This is feeding the kind of "oh-these-politicians-will-never-do-it" comments.

This is in part because the political calculation itself is largely irrelevant to the conduct of war. The Armed forces once given the "go-order" aren't going to turn around and expect political approval every 30 seconds. Once the button is pushed the missiles will fly and the 606 IAB will move with decisive force. If you look carefully most military operations are being effected on the timescale of days. The entire march of the first echelon takes about a week.

If you read my last two posts and ignore the nonsense about the characters therein - you will see precisely under what circumstances the politicians will be forced to go to war.

This should satisfy anyone with doubts about that but if you have extended issues - I suggest you take your political posturing to another thread.


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