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Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part III

joy_roy
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Postby joy_roy » 23 Sep 2005 20:54

Shankar ji can we see some air launched baburs in this action?Some P3C Orions firing baburs will probably make things a bit more interesting.Its just a thaught.anyway...awesome build up as usual...waiting for the next parts.

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Postby Shankar » 24 Sep 2005 12:45

RUSSIAN MINISTRY OF DEFENSE - KREMLIN- MOSCOW
---------------------------------------------------------------
The minister of defense put down the phone and reached for a glass of water.iIt was a long discussion and finally the high altitude flight transit plan was cleared . The price was steep too - a dozen spare RD 33 engines for the iraqi mig 29s now in the inventory of iranian air force . In a way it was not a very steep price to pay considering the alternate routing for the 8 blackjacks would have been much more expensive and had every chance of compromising the overall mission safety and ovearll element of surprise . At last he could tell the air group commander to go ahead with mission briefing .

RUSSIAN AIRFORCE BASE -SOMEWHERE IN SOUTHERN RUSSIA
---------------------------------------------------------------------------
For the first time Yuri Nikholav opened the top secert operations plan to fliers over glasses of hot tea and pandamonium broke loose with thousands of questions from fuel loading to choice of weapon systems to air cover over the target area and one by one he patiently responded to their queries . Most of the pilots have never flown over hostileteritory except occasional forrays into NATO war game zones that too from a distance .

Tu-160 strategic bombers are perhaps the best of all heavy startegic bombers taht flies the worlds sky today . While it does not have the stealth y nature of B-2 spirit it make up with its range ,payload and above all speed . Designed to opearte in any weather and over any geographical location over intercontinental range it forms an imporatant part of russian nuclear might . Today however they will be doing a conventinal strike mission -saturation bombing of a well defended airport approximately 3500 kms away . Their designated flight path will take them over Iran -skirt the gulf of oman and then into arabian sea and then loop back north east to the port city of Karachi in pakistan .

The latest satelite photos have shown the target area clear of low clouds and runways crammed with aircrafts being readied for a massed raid . The situation was just right thought the russain pilots to let the pakistanis know they should not have meddled with russia 20 yerars back . Bears they say have a very long memory.

The airframe of Tu 160 is structured around a central load bearing titanium beam all elded torsion box and rest of airfram members are fasttened to the main beam . The variable geometry outer tapered wings will allow it to fly the mission in a varity of speed height combination not possible ina fixed geometry winged aircraft . Its maximum speed in excess of 2000 kms per hour allows it to brake ot of an engagement or make a fast penetration into well defeneded air space comapritively easy .

The success of the mission depended on three factors - deception -surprise - accuracy and the mission was planned with these in mind right from the start .

- Tower - military supply flight alpha foxtrot 08 -request IFR clearence to chatrapati shivaji
- military supply flight alpha foxtrot 08 -you are cleared to chatrapati shivaji Mumbai as filed -climb runway heading and maintain flight level 400
- Roger tower -rolling now

One by one the massive strtegic bombers fully loaded with fuel and internal weapons taxied to end of the runway .The 4000 mtrs all concrete runway streched beforse them and as colonel Yuri nikolav set the take off mode on his flight computer the robotic brain took over -increasing the thrust level slowly at first and then quickly to max permissible . The after burners kicked in only when full military thrust have been achieved and the giant aircraft already crossing 100 km per hour groun speed . The four augmented turbo fan NK-32 engines quickly pushed her past the take off speed of 180 knots at fuly loaded configuration and she lifted gracefully into her element . The computerised flight control system decided to change the sweep of the wing from 20 degree in take off position to 45 degree for high subsonic flight and the servo motors whirred to life to obey the command .

Time was of essence and since the range to target was not very long atleast not by Blackjack standard Yuri asked his navigator to reprogramme the flight profile to high altitude supersonic as he looked up at the conventional display of electromechanical nature more like that of B-747 of earlier genre .Allreading were normal and the 8 Tu-160 formed up in a single stream formation with 10 kms of horizantal spacing and 1000 ft vertical spacing as it reached cruise altitude of of 40000 ft. The wing geometry changed once again this time to its full sweep of 65 degree and the quickly the four turbofan engined pushed her past the sonic threshold and beyond . 32 contrails formed inthier wake as hot exhaust streams cooled and froze as it met the cold air outside . And like this they entered the iranian air space from the caspian sea .

IAF STATION LOHEGAON -PUNE
-----------------------------------
The launch siganl came in from south western command almost immediately as the six su-30 mkis started thier engined almost simultaneously . An unseasonal thundershower has made the runway wet and a commercial flight was about to enter main runway .
- 9W 312 hold short of runway 27
- dolphin flight you are cleared for immediate take off
- cleared for take off -dolphin flight .

Passengers of jet air ways flight 312 to Delhi looke at awe as the six su-30 mkis took off with full afterburner in formation . Some of them could make out the snub nosed R-73 s and sharp point of R-77 s occupiing all the under wing and fuselage hard points . Fotr the first time indian sukhois have been called upon to pay its debt of creation to the land of its birth. they intend to do it in full.

Wing commander Manish checked his nav gomputer for the first waypoint some where over the arabian seas in the vicinity of Vikramaditya and then further west to meet the incomming blackjack flight just outside teritorial airspace of iran and then to the port town of karach -to be more exact the airforce base of Masroor . His initial track would take him well away from the busy east -west commercial air route centerd around Mumbai -he did not want to be seen atleats not now.

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Postby Shankar » 24 Sep 2005 15:23

RUSSIAN AIRFORCE FLIGHT ALPHA FOXTROT 08 -OVER CASPIAN SEA
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-Russian military supply fleet turn left 170 -maintain flight level 400
your sqwak is 3456 -acknowledge
- tehran centre - roger -maintain flt level 400- turn left 170 -over
- russain flight expect military escort over iran air space -acknowledge
-roger that tehran center

The four iranian airforce F-14 s formed up above and behind the russain bomber fleet all armed with side winders and sparrows and fully loaded 20mm nose guns . Even with their wings fully swept back at 67 degree they were finding it difficult to keep up with the fast russian bombers .The decided to break radio silence
- russian flight -please reduce air speed by 350 knots and acknowledge
-roger that Iran air guard -reducing speed to 650 knots

Yuri Nikolav acceded the iranian request firstly he had no oprtion at least in this mission no flankers were riding shot gun for him and secondly he could understand the iranian air commanders anxiety -no one like a supersonic fully armed heavy bomber flight in their airspace friendship or no friendship .

The roar of the quadra engines changed note as power was cut to 75% max and the tape type air speed indiactor started riolling down . As he looke at the weapon status all lights showed red . Real time active data link showed him the weapon loadout of all the squadrons aircraft and that included 2 FAB 9000 gigantic conventional bombs with more than 5000 kgs of high explossive TNT composition B and more or less same amount fo hard steel casing to contain it . Two of the lead tupolev s were carrying exclussively super sonic antiradiation missiles Kh 58 with 200 kg high explossive warheads and an effective range of 180 kms along with greater number of Kh 31P with an effective range of 100 kms and also capable of mach 2.5 . The rest of the system weapon load consisted of standard FAB-1000 FAB 1500 Iin huge numbers -enough to destroy a small city for ever .

INS VIKRAMADITYA - 250 KMS FROM KARACHI -NORTH ARABIAN SEA
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
She has changed track immediately after the known chinese satelite pass and now came into wind to launch her deadly cargo into air. The flanker flight from lohegaon was on her radar and should be able to take on the CAP duty as the fulcrums go out to do some hunting not very far . Before the Tu 160 arrive the fulcrums will return refuel rearm and resume cap duty relieving the flankers to escort thier elder sisters in one more round of macbre death

-clear deck for aircraft launch
and the routine of clearing flight deck started one more time ,from moving the trolley to absent minded maintainance engineers to first time to sea technicians all were hustled off ,the sea kings took off for emergency rescue -in case one of the migs take a dink during take off and the first mig 29k took up its position for ski jump take off ..

One by one 8 mig 29k s took off wihin 10 minutes in a shower of flame and thunder . Their primary mission objective was suppression of air defense around Masroor and consequently apart from a pair of R-73 s they were equipped with parachute retarded cluster bombs and smaller russian made anti ship missiles . Their intention was to start the chaos and then the heavies will find it easier to convert it to a disaster .

There was no radio talk -no navigation lights and no radar .At 100ft over the creamy waves of arabian sea they raced towards their target like a phantom from past . 50 kms from the pakisatni coast they ignited thier tail and the agile aircrafts went supersonic as it entered the the pakisatni airspace .

PAF BASE MASROOR
-------------------------
-Sir we have bandits inbound screamed the radar opeartor as he got the flash message from aircraft on CAP .
-Launch all aircraft immediately , shouted Mansoor khan as the enormity of disaster that can take place entered his mind
- The first two Mirages took off in unison and the second pair took up position at the end of the runway and started its take off roll

F-16 CAP OVER MASROOR AIR BASE
-------------------------------------------
- tower bandit inbound -engaging -wing comander latif spat the words out as he put his falcon in a turning dive and locked on the lead pair of Mig 29s streking low over the ground towards Masroor airbase .He did not wait or hesitate and launched 2 sidwinders at exterme range and climbed up for a second go .
The sleek missiles leapt of their rails and raced onto the lead pair of Mig 29s launching their own anti radiation missiles at the log range search radars inthe distant horizon and then quickly tried to climb out of harms way as their radar warning recievers blipped continiously .

Luck was not with them this time -both exploeded in mid air as the imaging infrared seeker head clearly identified their type and self defense capability and the flaming wreckage dropped amidst the the main runway causing a temporary stop of air operations till the bull dozers manage to clear the runway .

The second flight of Mig 29 s came in low once again and launched their cluster bombs on the parked aircraft but did not wait to see the ressults
before evn the parachute retarders opened the pilots looke at the falcons taking up missile firing position and put the aircrafts in a opposing violent tail skid ,punching out a steram of flares and then went for a verticla climb . this was too much even for the aim 9x to follow and it followed the initialt tarck lock and hit the fuel tank firm some distance away starting a small but managable fire .
The migs came up to the end of vertical climb roled over and used its helmet mounted sight to lock on the pursuing falcons . Each selected his own target and launched both the R-73 s in one go and then dived for ground and to safety .

In about 7 seconds PAF was short of 2 more falcons .

And then the other four fulcrums came on at a comfortable ht of 2000 ft and dropped their deadly load of cluster all over the airfield and the attention of pakisatni airforce personel quickly changed from attack to self preservation . The Mirages on cap tried to give a tail chase but gave up seeing its futility and diverted to alternate airfields .

The third group was in for some very hot reception as the element of surprise was gone and pakistani air defense guners were firing all thier worth at anything flying . The airfield was already non operational and not likely to launch any offensive or defensive air operation in next 2/3 hrs . So they simply dumped thier load on the fuel tank firm and exited smartly . The forth flight Chased the escaping mirages and managed to launch its missiles at extreme range .Only one Mirage 3 went down and others went down into ground clutter .

the worst was yet to come .

In less than 40 minutes of taking off the flight of 6 mig 29 s landed back and immeditely whisked off for battle damage check . Four fresh Mig 29s took off to take on the combat air patrol duty . Down in the crowded hanger now there was some more unwelcome space and so would ther be 2 empty chairs inpilots mess -but then this is the reality of war .

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Postby Shankar » 25 Sep 2005 11:53

PAF BASE MASROOR
----------------------------
At last one of the main runways were clear of flaming debris and took superhuman effort on part of pakistani airforce personnel. All available hands were used including those manning the nearby air defense guns and man portable SAM s. About 18 mirages were still mission worthy and they quickly lines up on the taxi way for clearence to take off .

There was no sign of the escorting falcons other than the two burning wrecks just outside the base perimeter .

Group captain Mansoor could not care less .He could not watch his fighters destroyed on ground one by one by the blessed indian migs without atleast fighting back. as he came out of the elevator into the air trafic control ,decidede to take personal control of the air counter offensive .

Within minutes the rest of mirages took to air and headed straight for the expected location of indian navy carrier group . Mansoor gambled on the fact that it will take atleast one hour for the Mig 29 s to refuel and rearm and they can launch only one aircraft at a time . As per his calculations about 4 exocets will be required to sink the carrier and the mirage flight carrierd 12 -a good odd for sure .

He was right and wrong .With long range search radars out of operation inthe cluster bomb strike he has no way of knowing about the sukhois already in postion and he did not know about the blackjacks with their awesome bomb load about to make a north easternly turn in a few minutes from now.

INS VIKRAMADITYA
-------------------------
The Ka 31 on AEW duty watched it all right from the moment it took off and those in the combat information center two decks below watched in real time on the radar repeater screens . The information wa relayed once again to the Dolphin flight group of six sukhois somewhere to the north west awating their charge of blackjacks from moscow . The su-30 s did not yet use thier own radar and time for it will come soon.

The Ka -31 also spotted the eight flight blackjack formation taking its north easternly looping turn as a prekude to supersonic bomb run and this made the air group commander on board Vikramaditya free the flankers for action .

DOLPHIN FLIGHT GROUP SU-30 MKI X 6
-------------------------------------------------
All of them switched on their powerful air search and track radars simultaneously and activated the real time data link between themselves .
The attack computer quickly assigned strike priority and also selected which missile and from which pylon of which aircraft will be fired and their sequence . It also flashed the prefered air speed and time to launch so all the pilots had to do was to follow what the computers said .

As the afterburneres kicked in the pilots armed up the 4 R-77 s in each aircraft which is 24 in all and launched the missiles at a closing speed of more than 2500 kms per hour T the mirages tried to evade ,to brake radar lock but was constrined by the bulky high drag exocet anti ship
missiles theu were not very effective . Those Mirage that ditched thier load wiggled out of the radar lock but most of them did not . 11 mirages and 11 fireballs soon decorated the evennig sky

The Su-30 s bore on after the escaping mirages some of which were infact trying to ge back to fire their own heat seekers at the incomming sukhois in a futile attempt of defiance . The 12 R-73 s that were launched over the next 2 minutes succeded in wiping out almost the entire mirage fleet but one . the lead flanker closed in and finished it off with a short burst of Gasha 30 .

The stage was now open for the Blackjacks.

The came in high and fast and one by one . The first FAB 9000 dropped over the oil refinery ripped up the distilation columns ,blew the roofs of the massive oil tanks and started a fire so intense that even the steel supprts of the interconnecting pipeine started melting . The ressulting shock wave destryed a large part of the city and most of the oil town ship. Collateral damage as they call was high .

The second FAB 9000 dropped on the navy drydock and its damage quotient was not so spectacular. A area the size of 4 foot ball fields was flattened and evrything around dissappeared in a swirling column of hot air
Most of the remaining surface ships of pakistani navy were berthed nearby as a ressult of the indian blockade and were torn out of their mooring and thrown on ground several 100 ft away . The stored ammo started secondary explossions and fire which would go on for few more days . The casuality count was comparitively low .

The rest of the black jacks concentrated their attention on the Masroor air base and its satelite fields spread all around . They exited as quickly as they came on their long journey back . And then the second wave of Mig 29 s came back in a dispaly of ruthless revenge to avenge the death of their comrade in arms -they came with dumb bombs and with smart bombs to take out every little pocket of resistance ,to hit anything of military significance as they exited the first group returned to carry on the deadly task . In all 96 sorties were flown by the fulcrums over the next 24 hrs .Always protected by the ever vigilant fulcrums -but that was unnessecery no PAF interceptor was there to challenge the unquestioned n supremacy of indian naval aviators on that day .

For all practical purposes -the city of Karachi ceased to exist in military map of subcontinent .

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Postby VruDesh » 25 Sep 2005 20:27

Shankar wrote:In less than 40 minutes of taking off the flight of 6 mig 29 s landed back and immeditely whisked off for battle damage check . Four fresh Mig 29s took off to take on the combat air patrol duty . Down in the crowded hanger now there was some more unwelcome space and so would ther be 2 empty chairs inpilots mess -but then this is the reality of war .


I think the loss of 2 Migs would have been easily possible avoided by sending a advance party of 3-4 Migs to take out the CAP party of F-16 and Mirage .More then the loss of 2 Mig 29 the loss of 2 human lives is what hurts.

Its a war and casualties will be there but they should be avoided wherever possible .

Some questions .....I don't know if this is the right place to ask it ?
What will be the maximum no. of Migs on the V'Ditya ?Will arial refuelling be possible on those Migs ?
Will those migs have the capacity to do buddy refuelling ?
Wouldn't having that increase the loiter time to a gr8 extent ?

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Postby Shirish » 25 Sep 2005 22:13

Shouldn't this thread be renamed to Possible Sagas Thread? :lol:

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Postby Anoop » 26 Sep 2005 08:55

Shirish wrote:Shouldn't this thread be renamed to Possible Sagas Thread? :lol:


In that case, perhaps there's some space for me! I have a couple of follow-on pieces planned, let's see how it goes...
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By all rights, Lt. Gen. Vikram Saini, Chief of Staff, South Western Army Command, should have been an elated man. A more complete picture of IBG 606’s exploits at Sahiwal was emerging and DMI’s assessment of the ensuing disposition of the remainder of Pak 1 Armd Div west of the Ravi was welcome confirmation that they were being held back for a battle that was not going to happen. Yet, Gen. Saini was in a pensive mood.

A third generation soldier, he wasn’t just married to his job; he was immersed soul-deep in never ending affairs with it. Commissioned in 1 Madras Regt. in 1972, his early career was spent in conversion to a mechanized role prior to the raising of the Mechanized Infantry Regiment in 1979. A veteran of the IPKF operations, he had learnt well the bitter lessons of employing mechanized forces in built up terrain and had been one of the first to adapt to using the mechanized forces in a dismounted role with fire support from the BMPs. Postings in North Kashmir and Manipur had followed, after which his career took a turn towards the staff stream. As BGS of 1 Corps, he had been intimately involved in planning and evaluating Ex. Poorna Vijay. Later that year, he assumed command of an infantry brigade deployed along the LoC, which had continued all through Op. Parakram. His obsession with his craft meant he had no time to curry favor or pursue plum positions; however, for a perfectionist, he was blessed with an inordinate amount of patience in face of other people’s slip-ups, which meant he made relatively few enemies in his career. Command of a mountain division along the Arunachal border, posting at DMO and a stint as GoC 12 Corps had followed and he now found himself in the hot-spot as the Chief of Staff of the Army’s newest Command and in the thick of action.

On the surface, the plan was simple – draw out the Pak armor into unfriendly terrain and use the IAF and the IA’s artillery to pound it. The devil, as always, was in the details. IBG 606 had succeeded in drawing out and destroying elements of 40 Inf Div, 1 Armd Div and an anti-tank regiment, but that did not mean the fighting was over. A fact well appreciated in the army was that Pak 31 Corps was almost as armor heavy as its counterpart in the ARS, 2 Corps. They still represented a serious threat to the dug in IBG 606 until mobility could be restored by supplying FOL. Indian 2 Corps was to be the follow-on force that would take on the remnants of the ARS in a battle of attrition, with the initiative to choose the location of the engagement resting with the attacker.

Much of Pakistani Punjab is unsuitable for large-scale armor movement due to a network of canals with steep banks. The decision to organize in terms of brigade-sized battle groups was driven as much by the need to provide reconnaissance, engineering and artillery support further down the echelon as it was by the need to attack along multiple approaches – both being dictated by the broken-up terrain along the Indo-Pak border. Providing these assets to the lower echelons enabled them to exploit local situations faster rather than wait for directives from the Div or Corps HQ.

If anybody expected Kiev-style armor engagements in the Okara-Multan sector, they were going to be disappointed. Gen. Saini had no intention of getting his tanks bogged down, although attrition was unavoidable. SW Command’s operational plans in the Ravi-Sutlej corridor, therefore, called for heli-lift of infantry battalions from what was formerly 14 RAPID that would then prepare the ground for the follow-on forces of mechanized infantry and engineer battalions of 55 (I) Mechanized Bde. The idea was to get the Pakistanis to commit their 35 Inf Div and 10 (I) Armd Bde in defense, while the main armored offensive would come from much farther south of the Sutlej.

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Postby Calvin » 26 Sep 2005 09:55

Sunil:

Actually I think it is more a question of electricity, if we are denied access to natural gas at a reasonable price, we will be forced to burn coal and that means that our carbon dioxide emissions will rise rapidly. Any global climate change will become a reality. Alternatively we could push the nuclear fuels market and somehow procure enough fuel to run our reactors. Eitherways we will have to have something from our current hosts to go with - either nuclear fuel or clean coal technology otherwise we will be left with no option but to punch a hole through the neighbors house


Whether we burn natural gas, or coal, our carbon dioxide emissions will rise rapidly. The only reason that the US is focused on "clean coal" is because of the Clean Air act and its implications for particulate and SOx emissions. India faces no such constraint.

The constraint we face in this regard is building a combined cycle gas plant that burns the gasified coal, instead of merely burning the coal - because if you don't recover the heat, you are highly inefficient.

The thermodynamics, I am sure, is old hat to you.

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Postby JCage » 26 Sep 2005 10:26

Welcome Anoop!

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Postby JCage » 26 Sep 2005 10:38

[quote="Dileep"][/quote]

Dileep,

http://www.iai.co.il/Default.aspx?docID ... &PageNum=5
This is the website for the Elta 8222.
And,
http://www.iai.co.il/Default.aspx?docID ... es=0&pos=0

Its been seen on Mirages and Sukhois, both K and MKI. It has also been reported, (open source), to be equipping the MiG27's, Jaguars and Bisons. Ergo, the 29's should also be having it. (IMHO, a reasonable assumption).

The MOD IAF report for 04-05, reports that the IAF is inducting fleetwide countermeasures, comprising of RWR (Tarang as we know), CMDS, and Self Protection Jammers. The Navy's 29K's per Russian reports will have Indian RWR and Indian Jammers- probably a variant of the Tusker Pod. The Tusker SPJ is designed for 27ML's primarily and may be also carried by some Jaguars.
http://www.acig.org/artman/uploads/tusker.jpg
It was designed in specific for the threats we encounter and is to be delivered in blocks, each improved over the other.

The 8222 is an extremely modern design and has been selected by other AF's worldwide. The RAAF also purchased them for their fleet iirc and so did the Germans. Designed for both airborne and ground based threats. It would definitely be a big plus in Air combat.

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Postby Anoop » 26 Sep 2005 17:44

JCage, thanks for the encouragement. Need some more time to flesh out my other scenarios.

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Postby Sunil » 26 Sep 2005 18:41

Calvin,

Yes, I am aware of the fact that we are not limited by the clean air act. I guess the point that I was trying to bring out is that Western nations are concerned about global CO2 emissions - a fact emphasized by the Kyoto protocols. While some like the US may avoid signing the protocols due to political reasons, I don't think they have any arguments against the technical stuff.

We in India have a choice - burn coal and turn the turbines or choose a cleaner form of energy - nuclear or natural gas. If we choose to burn coal, we can turn out coal fired plants at an astounding rate - compared to the complexity of a nuclear reactor we could make a coal fired plant with great ease. The result would be that in 10 years time we would have enough electricity - at a cost to the local and global environment. The local cost will be high in terms of things like acid rain etc... but ultimately given a choice between electricity and no electricity the population will simply accept the envrionmental cost.

The global damage would manifest in a rise in CO2 emissions from India. Imagine if in ten years time India produces as much CO2 as the US. That would completely change the way the US thinks of the world. Also the amount of SOx emissions would be so severe that it could affect something more than just the local environment. The pressure within the US to do something to reduce its own CO2 emissions would be tremendous. This pressure would manifest in less than ten years - that is the key point - the amount of time available to polluting US industries and automobile markets to change their energy consumption pattern would be less than a decade. That will mean huge changeover costs.

As the post suggests - there is only one way out of this. People have to stop getting in our way and let us gain access to resources and technologies that allow us to build a cleaner CO2 fuel cycle (less CO2). A more cynical strategy on our part would be to simply go ahead and build coal fired plants and then use the emissions from each plant as a bargaining chip at the revised kyoto protocol negotiations. I sense this is what the PRC might do in the future but I am not sure how much coal they have.

Hi Anoop,

Good work!

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Postby Dileep » 26 Sep 2005 19:32

Nitin,

I had not really thought much about the countermeasures technologies. Shame on me, the electronicsjingo :oops:

Thanx for the links. Got to do a lot of reading.

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Postby Y I Patel » 26 Sep 2005 20:00

yaay! Gen Anoop has entered the fray :) Looking forward eagerly to the next episode!

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Postby Jagan » 26 Sep 2005 20:15

Folks one suggestion.

Can anyone take up the task of coming up with Organisation Charts / Order of Battles of the Indian Armed Forces as mentioned in the book. Possibly one chart each for army, navy, af and the political establishment?

The charts can become reference points when varous writers writing in stuff. No two can put different commanders to one formation if we have something like that in place. It is also easier for the reader to jump and follow the story as and when required.

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Postby Calvin » 27 Sep 2005 09:19

Sunil: All the technology for "clean coal" is available to India, or in India.

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Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2005 10:12

S2, PRC is well endowed with coal. They have 100,000 mines many unregulated and around 10,000 miners die each year from accidents. Yes they are currently in a electric frenzy to build coal fired plants all over the place. and their plants are usually quite big due to soaring demand and better distribution network.
The civilian nuke deal they beat out of Unkil could have been based on the twin daggers of soaring oil/gas imports and increasing coal emissions plus other factors we dont know about.

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Postby p_saggu » 27 Sep 2005 11:47

Isn't 'clean coal technology' already in use in some of the private sector steel plants in India?

I understand that at least the Tatas use something with a similar connotation for firing their furnaces.

Incidentally this thread seems to now resemble Possible greenpeace scenarios. C'mon everyone lets get back to the marauding and mutilating...

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Postby Roger » 27 Sep 2005 12:06

Motion seconded!
btw, the attack on karachi seemed to me to be extremely devastating, wont unkil have somethin to say bout that?
also, in this time period, are there any us troops in pak?, for their "war on terror " in afghanistan. or have they left by this time?

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Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2005 13:02

unkil will vacate asap at first sign of munna getting spanked. no desire to lose lives on behalf of munna. the usual economic and psyops media levers will be applied *after* the evac is done in a day or two - expats being all mil and fbi/cia operatives.

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Postby Sunil » 27 Sep 2005 20:19

Hi Calvin,

IIRC the clean coal tech we have around isn't sufficient for what the larger plants will require. I don't know the exact constraint but given time I am sure that alternatives could be developed in India fairly quickly.

Ofcourse even in that scenario - the CO2 emissions remain.

P_Saggu,

There is more to war than killing and maiming. The geopolitical reality that sets the stage for the end of an unjust peace and the beginnings of a just war.

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Postby VruDesh » 27 Sep 2005 21:40

Nobody having any views about this ?

I think the loss of 2 Migs would have been easily possible avoided by sending a advance party of 3-4 Migs to take out the CAP party of F-16 and Mirage .More then the loss of 2 Mig 29 the loss of 2 human lives is what hurts.

Its a war and casualties will be there but they should be avoided wherever possible .

Some questions .....I don't know if this is the right place to ask it ?
What will be the maximum no. of Migs on the V'Ditya ?Will arial refuelling be possible on those Migs ?
Will those migs have the capacity to do buddy refuelling ?
Wouldn't having that increase the loiter time to a gr8 extent ?

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Postby joy_roy » 27 Sep 2005 22:07

VruDesh wrote:Nobody having any views about this ?

I think the loss of 2 Migs would have been easily possible avoided by sending a advance party of 3-4 Migs to take out the CAP party of F-16 and Mirage .More then the loss of 2 Mig 29 the loss of 2 human lives is what hurts.

Its a war and casualties will be there but they should be avoided wherever possible .

Some questions .....I don't know if this is the right place to ask it ?
What will be the maximum no. of Migs on the V'Ditya ?Will arial refuelling be possible on those Migs ?
Will those migs have the capacity to do buddy refuelling ?
Wouldn't having that increase the loiter time to a gr8 extent ?


well I think it would have been better to send atleast 4 su 30 mki to take out the cap first.Then the migs can go in and do their job.

Mig 29k of the IN will have in flight refuelling capability.Check the BR section on MIG 29k.INS VIKRAMADITYA will be able to carry more than 30 migs ,but i doubt IN will have that many migs from the word go.And buddy refuelling?What exactly is that?

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Postby marimuthu » 27 Sep 2005 22:39

joy_roy wrote:And buddy refuelling?What exactly is that?


Instead of using a refuelling tanker use the same kind of aircraft to refuel in mid air. Like Mig29K used to refuel another Mig29K

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Postby marimuthu » 27 Sep 2005 22:40

deleted

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Postby Singha » 27 Sep 2005 22:42

Junta what would you think if I wrote up a scenario (about the time of Shankars attack on Sargodha) as a contrarian pov where we suffer some really bad losses ? it can happen, question is, can the junta here take it without crying for a instant dose of revenge?

Jesh checking the general mood here. Dont want to be chased through the bazaar by a howling mob with swords and khanjar's out for 'daring' to have india lose a round.

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Postby ManuJ » 27 Sep 2005 22:59

Singha wrote:Junta what would you think if I wrote up a scenario (about the time of Shankars attack on Sargodha) as a contrarian pov where we suffer some really bad losses ? it can happen, question is, can the junta here take it without crying for a instant dose of revenge?

Jesh checking the general mood here. Dont want to be chased through the bazaar by a howling mob with swords and khanjar's out for 'daring' to have india lose a round.


Why not? You present your scenario, and if Shankar can present a counter-scenario that would be great stuff...you can be the red force, Shankar can be blue, and we can all have some fun watching you two duel it out :D

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Postby Dileep » 27 Sep 2005 23:11

I support Singha. War is not unilateral. We should be prepared to take hits.

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Postby Shalav » 27 Sep 2005 23:18

O wise guruji - please go ahead! Just don't be too desi when representing the paks :twisted:

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Postby JCage » 27 Sep 2005 23:42

Instead of Sargodha, make it the Ground war where this is more likely to happen.

I for one have had enough of the invulnerable TFTA PAF mythology.

You could use the PAF to mount effective strikes- with their low flying Mirages they would be a pretty big nuisance.

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Postby Roger » 27 Sep 2005 23:50

personally, i think such a scenario is long overdue. much as i like to see the pakis gettin their collective behinds kicked,
us winnin each and every time is a bit unrealistic. while i liked what we dished out to the pakis in sarghoda and karachi, those
strikes happened just as they where plannin major ones against us. what if, we were, a bit late and they carried out(or at least tried to)
their strikes?
so i would welcome a scenario where we're on the recievin end for a change. But nothing beats a good ol fashioned paki - bashing, so even
if they are to win one round, make theirs a pyrrhic victory , to be followed up by a devastating counter of our own.
we must show the world that we can take ahard knocks from time to time and still keep the punches comin.

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Postby Arun_S » 28 Sep 2005 03:50

Shankar: Good stuff. Some nitpicks and suggestion for editorial amendments:

1. "military supply flight" would peretend like one and not fly supesonic all the way. In fact IIRC its engines are not rated for sustained afterbuerner operation. Secondly, such flight do not fly in a convoy, so a tightly packed formation pretending as 2 wide bodied jet would be more likely. That makes good deception.

2. At AFS Lohegaon, again I do not think launching 3 MKI in full view of a holding civilian flight is likely. More likely during war civvy flights will be ordered to leave ASAP with cabin lights lit and window screen down, and then unsheath the MKI.

3. Quote "For the first time indian sukhois have been called upon to pay its debt of creation to the land of its birth. they intend to do it in full." There is no karmic debt to MKI bought for money. Lets get over with unwanted burden of debt and remove it.

4. When AF08 arrives Iran and speed reduction request is made, pls note that 650kt is still supersonic and wil genrate sonic boom. Even worse it is trans-sonic speed where drag coeffficent is at it's maximum. A more reasonable speed sould have been 0.95M (~528Kt).

5. Now it does not make sense that Flakers from AFS Lohegaon will fly all the distance to do measely CAP on Vikramditya and Mig29 will go on airfield attack!!!! grumble ...@$@%#^#&#. What is the good reason for such non-obvious revarsal of role that has unacceptable risk and caaulties written all over it?? Primary role of Mig29 is to defend the AC. So its better to assume that MKI went to doninate the air over Masroor while 3 Mig29 provided CAP to AC and the rest Mig29 went on to shread the TSPAF and Karachi to shread. And maybe one Mig29 on a bombing run lost to medium range SAM.

An attack on a primier TSPAF base has to be under the stewardship of Air dominence fighter the SU-30 MKI that shoud be providing air battle command and dominence function so that the Mig29 or Ruskies do their job in systematically ravaging Masroor and nearby facilities.

The opening shots should be that of SEAD attacks on radars and communication nodes whose position was validated by an earlier Indian ELINT flight. That should limit the TSPAF communication of first noticing air attack by ground observers near sea shore.

6. "INS VIKRAMADITYA - 250 KMS FROM KARACHI" Too close for realistic scenareo. Should be much like 450Km at least.

7. Suggest adding maritime Jaguar of #6 Squadron taking out ships in the Karachi port and channel to make it un-navigable for many months and lighting up Karchi oil farm.

8. Change the term "oil firm" to "oil farm"

9. Quote "And then the other four fulcrums came on at a comfortable ht of 2000 ft and dropped their deadly load of cluster .." It almost certainly was a high altitude bombing run well above the range of shoulder fired SAM ringing the airbase. A bombing run that almost certainly involved GPS/GLONASS guided precision kits locally made by DRDO. Later the Puki's turn on some radar's kept "quit" in reserve, in anticipation of SEAD operation destroying the main stuff. That radar shoots some medium range SAM that took down one of the M29 which was trying to visually identify the air vent of underground ATC and command center. A job left redundent after the mayham caused by heavy Ruski bombing.

10 A nice finale would be also take on some army garrision in TSP-Hyderabad in unision with a cammando attack assisted by light infentry from Indian side of Runn of Kutch. Forming a beach head and easy source of water and food supplies in Sindh and announcement of a local admin taken over by Jeea-Sindh. Now Karachi is under direct IA thumb with local presence in Hyderabad.

11 Direct hit on 2 Masroor ammo dump and 4 Karachi navel dump would be sure sign of Indian powress and firework finale to remember.

12. Quote "For all practical purposes -the city of Karachi ceased to exist in military map of subcontinent ." Humm... without extensive bombing of city centers !!! I am not sure.

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Postby Dileep » 28 Sep 2005 06:32

Thanx to Nitin, the Khitan-e-Thunder story is updated with use of ECM.

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Postby gauravs » 28 Sep 2005 07:37

Dileep wrote:I support Singha. War is not unilateral. We should be prepared to take hits.


Isn't this war happening sometime in the future, it is very conceivable that we can kick the CRap out of the pukis w/o getting hit too bad in return.

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Postby Anoop » 28 Sep 2005 11:00

YIP, Sunil, you guys are too kind. I did notice the editorial snip to my earlier post - nice touch. I ought to have been less obvious!

Here's a follow-on piece, with hopefully a couple more to come. I'll try to give a view of the developments from different levels - Div to Battalion, though the latter will necessarily be just human interest stories. Getting into too much detail will expose me as the fraud I am :)

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

In the north Rajasthan sector, the IA and the IAF had a significant advantage over their adversaries, namely the availability of 3 airbases (Suratgarh, Nal-Bikaner and Bhatinda) as opposed to just one (Rafiqui) of the PAF. Coupled with a significantly larger helicopter fleet that included dedicated ground attack (Mi-25 & 35), medium lift (Mi-8, Mi-17) and heavy lift transport (a small number of Mi-26) and recce assets (Chetaks and Dhruv), the IA-IAF combine was poised to support a tempo of operations much higher than their enemy’s. The availability of night-flying instruments with both rotary wing and ground attack aircraft in retrofits undertaken in the early part of the decade and the lower altitude of operation, which in turn translated to greater engine thrust, had significantly neutralized the MANPAD-intensive air defense configuration of the PA.

It was against this background that the operational plans for employment of 14 RAPID and 24 RAPID in the Maisli sector of Pakistan were conceived, with 7 Inf Div. being held in reserve.

The Pakistani deployment tended to be along the following lines. Company/battalion level posts were set up in a chain a few kilometers behind their border posts. Battalion/brigade level posts were still further back and mechanized reserves held centrally in the area of responsibility (AOR) so as to be able to respond to developing situations. Between each layer of defense, continuous minefields were laid to slow down the Indian advance. In Pak 31 Corps’ AOR, this meant that 10(I) Armd Bde and 44(I) Mech Bde were somewhere in the vicinity of Khanpur and Khairpur respectively, with Chistian Mandi and Bahawalnagar being strongly held by 35 Inf Div.

Soviet forces in the days of the Cold War had practiced what NATO analysts described as a ‘Club-Sandwich’; it referred to the various spatial and organizational layers of NATO defenses that the WP forces planned to attack ‘simultaneously’, the latter referring not to a single point in time, but to the extent that all defenses in depth would feel the attack within a time span short enough to disrupt their OODA cycle. The IA and the IAF adopted a variation of this theme in their attack on PA’s ARS. Rather than engaging the forward defenses first, they choose to attack deep first and work their way outward to the forward defended localities or the FEBA in NATO parlance. This strategy was expected to act as a force multiplier for the forward offensive IA units in contact with the first line of defense because it would mean that the nodes of the PA defense would be paralyzed first, rendering their co-ordination of forward defense less elastic and flexible.

The first wave of four Jaguars from 14 Sq. and two MiG-27 ML from 31 Sq. took off an hour before dawn from their forward base at Suratgarh, escorted by three MiG-21 MF on a bombing run of the road and railway track at Tamewali station near Khairpur. On the egress route, they dropped their remaining bombs on Bahawalnagar. This was followed by three more such bombing runs in the space of four hours, resulting in severe damage to the roads leading out of Khairpur and Bahawalnagar and to the railway line linking both to Bahawalpur. Later in the day, two more air attacks were carried out on Chistian Mandi and Khanpur, while Fort Abbas was brought under artillery fire from Div Arty Bde of 24 RAPID.

Meanwhile, shortly after dawn, two Coys of 17 MAHAR and one each of 2 Rajput and 5 MLI from 116 Inf Bde attached to 14 RAPID were heli-dropped about 20 km SE of the railway line near Tamewali station by two Mi-26 ferrying them in two sorties each. Given the high value and vulnerability of the heavy lift Mi-26, each sortie was preceded by a Nishant recce flight and accompanied by a couple of Mi-35 for ground attack and two Chetaks for battle damage assessment and to act as forward air observers for Indian artillery. Miraculously, no aircraft was lost in this operation that lasted an hour each time around, including half an hour over enemy territory during the drop phase, although some small arms fire could be heard in the distance.

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Postby VruDesh » 30 Sep 2005 13:42

Has a part IV been started for this ?

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Postby p_saggu » 01 Oct 2005 19:08

Sunil Said
There is more to war than killing and maiming. The geopolitical reality that sets the stage for the end of an unjust peace and the beginnings of a just war.


I fully agree with you on this one.
War is an effective tool for those who understand geopolitics and geostrategy at a much greater depth than the usual folks. War may not the means to an end, in itself it perhaps is not the solution; it is merely a means to bring around an opponent to view one’s point of view, a situation where geopolitics and strategy can take over. There can be nothing more disastrous than war used indiscriminately; it achieves nothing more than loss for all the parties involved. When used judiciously, the mere threat of war often achieves one’s objectives.

As far as energy security is concerned, from India’s point of view, first we must engage the various players in the field, the oil rich nations, nations with nuclear / clean coal technology et.al. at a level that will enable them to view us a little more favourably than in the past. We are just about interacting with these nations proactively. I am afraid a scenario in which India would go to war over energy security is some way off.

Contrast out situation with some of the real movers and shakers in the arena – the Americans, to some extent the Chinese. When engagement didn’t draw the necessary results for the Americans, they resorted to war. But the buffers that they had at their command (Economic, Military, Energy security) were enormous, allowing them this option. The way the Chinese have gone about in the last few years, acquiring energy resources all the way from the Middle East, former CIS, Africa, shows that they are working according to a plan, using economic and political clout to achieve their means. Even for them going to war is not an option. The threat of war was tried in the South China Sea a few years back, but still the stalemate persists.

An unjust peace is perhaps what we have endured for the last two decades. Allowing ourselves to be used as a punching bag while the enemy perfected his art and wore itself out. Barring an aberration in 2002 – 2003, we don’t seem to want to settle things once and for all using the military option. Rightly we are the Gandhi’s nation.

A request to all the posters. Please include some sections describe the political and geostrategic machinations that would come to play before and during an event such as the one we see on this thread.

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Haji Sutar meets Mustafa Karar

Postby VKumar » 03 Oct 2005 00:18

They met at Mustafa’s villa in the posh Clifton beach area of Karachi. This was quite convenient, located near the building of the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Pakistan, and rather more secluded than the Karachi Sheraton off Cundrigar Rd. near the State Bank, where there would be the possibility that they would be noticed. There was no beating around the bush at the meeting. Both men knew that time was short – Mustafa had to declare his services to ISI tomorrow and Haji had to return to the Bank’s dealing room that night to move his Country’s reserves into liquid deposits that would pay for the demands of the army.

Mustafa spoke first and freely. He informed Haji about his meeting with the ISI general and their demand to send his tribal warriors into the battlefront. His argument was that the army had already lost the war and now it was time to protect hat was left standing. What can the tribals achieve against the marauding Indian army and air force? If the regular army could not halt the Indians, how long would his men last? Mustafa knew that whatever the result of this war, Pakistan would never be the same. Perhaps, there would be no longer a single Pakistan. It was necessary to safeguard the future of his people and his family. The frontier people had always been distinct from the Punjabis; they could never forget the war against terrorism that the Punjabis had carried out against them at the behest of the US. Getting hem to fight to save the Punjabi land would be a big ask.

Mustafa asked Haji his advice about this demand of ISI.

Haji was a true patriot. He would willingly give his life for Pakistan if that would save the country. Had he not given up his plum job on the Wall Street to take up this assignment at the State Bank? However Haji was a thinking man. In his opinion, the Pakistani army had lost the war. Further expenditure on armaments would be a waste. Further bloodshed would be also a waste. Haji also knew that there were a large number of slush accounts in overseas banks in places like Cayman Islands and Isle of Man that were owned by senior army officers and politicians. From his vantage point he could sense that these senior leaders were getting ready to abandon the country, when the time came, already their families were leaving. In his mind he had decided what he must do for the future of Pakistan.

Haji’s advise to Mustafa was simple, buy time. Tell the ISI that you are willing to lend support but need some time to meet the tribal elders and gather their support, which would be a vital motivating factor for his men. Haji reasoned that the end game of the war was near, one more major attack and the rats would run, and it would be left for the true patriots to salvage the country. Stay put somewhere, he advised, and then when the war is over we can rebuild this land and take it to its glorious destiny as a leader of Islam.

Mustafa was thrilled to hear this advise. He knew that if he could hold out for a week, then he could have a greater role to play in the future. Perhaps he could become the Prime Minister that’s worth a thought. Perhaps, just to show that I helped in the war, I will sacrifice a few hundred warriors. So, Mustafa’s strategy became clear – buy time and “run away so he could fight another day”.

What about my foreign holdings? Would the government demand these? He asked Haji.
Haji smiled and said, whatever you hold and are listed with us can be demanded.

This hint was good enough for Mustafa. He decided that immediately he would move all his listed holdings into new, secret accounts – better to explain this action than to risk his family’s wealth.

Haji could stay no longer and he bid his friend a good night. As Haji got into his car, all hell broke loose. The sky over Karachi and its surrounding areas became bright as the day with the ack ack. Later he would learn that Indians first and Russians next, had attacked the airfields surrounding Karachi and devastated the PAF and PNS. But, even as he sped to his office, he realized that this was no ordinary air raid. Perhaps the end game had started. Perhaps he should now put into operation the plan he had for his country – simply put, the idea was to move the foreign exchange reserves out-of-reach of the army and the stupid politicians who had led his country to disaster.

On arriving at his office, Haji saw that all was chaos. Saheb, the Indians have destroyed the airfields and many fighters. They have destroyed the docks and the oil tanks. What will we do, what can we do wailed the security officer at the entrance.

Believe in Allah! All will be well. Was all that Haji said as he raced into his office and picking up his secret files, rushed to the operations room which resembled a bazaar as all phone were ringing and the bank staff were shouting. The Pakistani Rupee was crashing as the news of the latest air raid went around the world. ADR prices of the two Pakistani Companies listed on NASDAQ were plummeting. The Finance Minister was online and the Governor was heading to the office.

Haji knew he had to act. There was no time to lose. Haji Sutar picked up the direct line to his favorite dealer in Geneva and slowly gave his instructions as his incredulous P.A. listened and converted the verbal instructions into SWIFT advice.

Haji Sutar was a true patriot.

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Postby p_saggu » 03 Oct 2005 20:52

Pakistan is getting 77 more F 16s.
Watch this space for many more scenarios :lol:

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Postby VruDesh » 03 Oct 2005 23:11

What if India decides to add a Su 30MKI for each F16 PAF gets ?
Is there any chance that the MKI will supercruise in the future or can it already do it ?


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