Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part VIII

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Postby Bala_R » 26 Apr 2007 14:19

Based on inputs of many members out here, I have edited my post. The Chinese aircraft carrier had slipped in after conducting a friendly exercise with the Navy of Yemen. Hope this satisfies many members out here.

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Postby Bala_R » 26 Apr 2007 14:22

INDIAN NAVAL COMMAND
ANDAMAN & NICOBAR ISLAND
20:00 HRS, THURSDAY



Port Blair Airport: One of the two Bears that reached Port blair in the afternoon was being readied for its surveillance mission. The Dornier aircraft did not have the range or endurance for the kind of mission at hand. These Bears were the upgraded one capable of carrying BrahMos & Sea Eagle missiles. The Bear was being loaded with 3 BrahMos missiles & 3 torpedoes in case it was required.

First Bear took off at 20:15 hrs from Port Blair airport & turned east for its surveillance mission. The instructions to the crew was clear, they had to keep a watch on Chinese naval activity in the region & if any Chinese warship was found to be threatening, immediately report to the command before initiating any punitive action.

Chinese naval immediately got the information about the Bears at Andaman & had taken action to fool the IN by calling back all its destroyers to coastal waters to fool the IN in to believing that Chinese navy would not be actively involved in the current war.

Indians were slowly falling into the trap believing that Chinese would not have the guts to venture into Indian Ocean & attack Indian soil. In one way IN was correct, no navy, except UN would venture far away from their homeland to attack India, where she has every means to defend & overwhelmingly defeat the attacking naval force.

SOUTHERN NAVAL COMMAND
COCHIN


Air activity from the command had increased with constant sorties of Bears being carried out. The base was now on full alert status & was ready to respond to any threat that emerged from the west. Bears were loaded with 3 BrahMos missiles & 3 torpedoes. IAF Jaguar IMs were also operating from the naval airbase in support. All the Jaguars carried two Sea Eagles each, two Magic II missiles over wing & One drop tank. Jaguar sorties were planned based on intelligence about PN trying to do some misadventure in the western region, especially to the Cochin Refineries.


INDIAN AEROSPACE COMMAND
THIRUVANANTHAPURAM


After the approval of Govt. being received finally for setting up an Aerospace command at Thiruvananthapuram, the construction activities have been going on in full swing. The Command centre was to being operations within a months time. New THD-1955 radar was being erected & was supposed to be commissioned in a weeks time to provide radar coverage & protection to the command in case of war. The surface to Air missile batteries were to consist of Akash SAM systems.

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Postby rsharma » 26 Apr 2007 15:08

The surface to Air missile batteries were to consist of Akash SAM systems


Bala,
with the latest news coming in about the Akash system being dud & the IAF being "heavily" dissatisfied with its performance, u might want to edit 'ur last post & include an integrated spyder+Arrow system.. JMT :idea:

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Postby Shyam_K » 26 Apr 2007 15:13

Port Blair Airport: One of the two Bears that reached Port blair in the afternoon was being readied for its surveillance mission.
........

Air activity from the command had increased with constant sorties of Bears being carried out. The base was now on full alert status & was ready to respond to any threat that emerged from the west. Bears were loaded with 3 BrahMos missiles & 3 torpedoes.


Bala, I don't think Cochin or Port Blair airports are big enough to handle the Bears. There is also no space at the Cochin Naval airport for any further runway extension, I am not sure about Port Blair.

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Postby niran » 26 Apr 2007 15:24

Dear Vivek,
Sir, thanks and Ladoos.you created a scneraio, letting mig21
to shoot down 11 SuMKKs.

Just one confusion, it seems you indicated R-73s fired by Mig21 to be radar guided. but it is an infrared guided short range missile.
considered the best dog fighting missiles,particulary the EM version, very
capable and lethal. maybe I presumed incorrectely.Please do crrect me If I am wrong.

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Postby Bala_R » 26 Apr 2007 15:28

Since I am not an expert & aware of the limitations of each base & airfield, this types of mistakes can crop up. Hope some knowledgeable person can help me out with in my scenarios.
Meanwhile, I will compile my scenarios in a word file & keep it with me till some expert helps me out to sort out such mistakes.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 26 Apr 2007 23:36

THE AIR DEFENCE GROUND ENVIROMENT SYSTEM (ADGES), 3 T.A.C.
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF INDIA
1940 HRS THURSDAY


The set-up of the ADGES at 3 TAC included an entire Group of Akash missile Batteries, a network of Radar directed AAA, and the short range Igla teams linked into a centralized network called the 3 TAC Air Defence Group. The main coordination centre was based in an underground facility at Chabua that coordinated all the facets of the system. In the Akash Group, there existed three missile batteries, one based at Chabua, Sukerating and Ledo respectively. The main Group Headquarters was based at Chabua, but the mobile vehicles were spread out within the vegetation around the base. The only main cluster of vehicles consisted of the Group Command Centre (GCC), and the associated trailers and power supply vehicles. Located at the opposite end of the base at Chabua was the 3D Central Acquisition Radar or 3D-CAR, which was a multi beam planar array system with a Hundred and Fifty Kilometres detection range. This was the nucleus of the system because at the moment, it was the only long-range radar scanning the hills to the east for the first signs of intrusion.

There were other radars in the system of course, but the Group Commander was playing it smart. He had ordered all other radars shut down, including the gun battery radars, the Rajendra Intermediate range Akash guidance radars and every other emitting device at all three major bases. There was a reason for this. The Chinese fighters did not have external Jamming or ECM support like the Indian B-707s or their own ECM H-6s that were operating to the west. These kind of powerful standoff systems could fill the electronic space with spurious signals that disrupted SAM guidance radars. These aircraft did not need to worry about frequency spectrums or bandwidth. They simply flooded the entire bands within minutes, and unless the defenders had extremely powerful systems, they could not attempt to ‘burn through’ the jamming, no matter how frequency versatile their systems were. It was because of this kind of powerful support that the earlier skirmishes in Tibet had been favourable for the IAF and also the reason why the batteries at Tezpur were currently not able to engage the SU-27s flying nearby.

But the numbers of such aircrafts on both sides were limited, and the Chinese SU-30MKKs were coming without them because these H-6 variants being used near Tezpur were not even production aircrafts but the testing and evaluation aircrafts that had been pressed into service because they had been at the advanced stages of their programmes. But there were no more such aircrafts. The only defence the Chinese SU-30MKKs therefore had were their own pylon mounted electronic jamming pods.

These worked at a whole other level. While the H-6s had enough space inside their fuselages to hold powerful equipment, obviously the pylon-mounted pods could not hold the same. Therefore they used finesse instead of brute force. These systems first analysed the enemy emissions for determining the various signal parameters like frequency, the Search Bandwidth, hopping versatility, power and so on. Then they flooded that specific frequency with jamming signals. If the frequency changed, the process began again and the pods adapted themselves. They had enough power only for certain bandwidths of the system, and that’s where their weakness lay.

Since the entire process depended on the pod’s ability to gather details of the radar signal beforehand, if the defender could deny the pod these signals, it became blind, and rightly so, since there were no signals for it to analyse. It also meant that it had no EW pre-empting capability. It was a passive device, depending on after-detection jamming rather than pre-detection jamming. That was the reason why all radars were shut down except for the 3D-CAR. The Indian group commander was denying the Chinese any electronic information.

The Chinese commander flying in the lead aircraft was no fool either. He had his aircrafts flying low to the ground now and moving on a north-south axis instead of charging towards his targets. He was doing this just inside the detection range of the 3D-CAR radar at Chabua. He was waiting for the Indian commander to lose his nerves and light up the tracking radars so that he could gather the electronic information he needed. He also had another trick up his sleeve. Although the main force was just inside the 3D-CAR range, and thus giving hits to the Indian Group commander, he was also just outside the range of the easternmost Akash Battery at Sukerating. Now he started to tickle the Indian defences.

Two SU-30MKKs increased power and flipped to their left and moved westwards straight towards the battery at Sukerating. This was quickly detected by the 3D-CAR and the information passed to the respective batteries that a pair of ‘Bogies’ were inbound to Sukerating. The Chinese aircrafts came within range of the Akash Missiles, but the Battery commander there did not light up his systems on the orders of the Indian Group Commander. He wanted bigger fish, not these two small ones. The two SU-30MKKs swiftly turned back eastwards to remain outside the range of other systems, before repeating the process. Again they failed to get a response, although their RWRs were warning them that they had indeed been picked up by the 3D-CAR. After trying once more, they returned back to the main formation. The Indian Group commander smiled to himself. He had the entire night to spend. How much time did the Chinese pilots have before they ran out of fuel?

The bottom line was that something had to give in this tense standoff between the two forces gazing with cautious eyes at each other. And despite the fact that the SU-30MKK had long range, it wasn’t infinite, and sooner or later the Chinese Commander would have to take his chance. In any case, the longer he waited the more likely it was that the SU-27 barrier forces to the west might be defeated and a whole flood of SU-30MKIs would rush to this region. The decision was made. It had to be ‘sooner’ rather than ‘later’.

The entire force of SU-30MKKs pulled to the west and started to move in. There were seventeen bombers at the moment. And the targets at this time were all IAF ones. The Indian army had been spared thanks to the brave efforts of the Indian Mig-21 pilots. The targets that were to be hit now included the three airbases at Chabua, Sukerating and Ledo. Six SU-30MKKs each were tasked with the destruction of Chabua and Sukerating, while five SU-30MKKs would hit the base at Ledo. The remaining twelve air-to-air armed SU-30MKKs would be distributed in three groups of four and one group would follow each of the strike packages for support.

All aircrafts were flying in the medium altitude regime at a place where the Indian pilots flew at tree top height. That discrepancy was because of the unfamiliarity of the Chinese pilots of the geography around the area. The aircrafts were picked up on radar quickly and now the Indian Group commander had to act. This was the real deal, the main strike, and all the commanders at each battery at the three bases were quietly staring at the radar plots in front of them. The Group commander had to wait as long as he dared if he wished to further increase his chances, but if he left it too late, he would lose it all. The fate of the 3 Tactical Air Centre, EAC was in his hands.

As the Chinese forces closed in nearer and nearer there was still no response. When they were at murderously close level the Group Commander picked up the phone on the console in front of him, which connected him by voice link to all other Battery commanders at 3 TAC. He spoke one sentence and one sentence alone…

“Shoot them down.â€
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 27 Apr 2007 00:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Denis » 27 Apr 2007 00:27

Hi Vivek,
Great stuff as usual.

However a small discrepancy. As per your earlier post only 17 bombers remained and now you have tasked 7 each to Chabua and Sukerating and 6 to Ledo- 20 Bombers, which does not tally.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 27 Apr 2007 00:40

Thanks for pointing out the typo Denis. i don't know how the hell that mistake creeped in. i have corrected it in the post. its six-six-five bombers...

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Postby nits » 27 Apr 2007 11:43

[quote="vivek_ahuja"]

“Shoot them down.â€

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Postby saty » 27 Apr 2007 11:46

"shoot them down" eh...

excellent excellent....

Seems the five pilots did not give their lives in vain :|

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Postby ksmahesh » 27 Apr 2007 20:00

Vivek,
:roll: Where are you? Please tell us the fate of chini bombers. The long pause after orders "shoot them down" is excruciating.
eagerly waiting the next post .......
:roll:

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Postby Sudhanshu » 27 Apr 2007 20:03

:) Hold on .. there is a radio silence...

Vivek would be on the line after the complete destruction of the chinese air group.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 27 Apr 2007 22:11

3 TACTICAL AIR CENTRE (TAC)
NORTHEASTERN TIP OF INDIA
1950 HRS THURSDAY


The three major bases in the region, Chabua, Sukerating and Ledo, were arranged in an arrowhead like formation pointing eastwards, with Sukerating being the tip of the arrowhead and thus also the most eastwards located base. That meant that it would be the first to get hit. The bombers heading for Ledo would take a southwestern route from the border while the force hitting Chabua would have to head, first northwest and then southwest to bypass the Batteries at Sukerating and then reach Chabua. That would take them north of the Brahmaputra and then south again to reach Chabua. A round about route by any standard, it also meant that the three forces hitting the three bases would do so with significant time gap between them, and that aided the defenders once more.

The Indian Group commander knew this, and that’s why he had instructed each battery commander to light up his systems only when that particular base was under attack. That meant that the Akash Battery at Sukerating was the first to light up its systems. It just could not afford to wait any more. At the battery level, the main radar now operating was the powerful Rajendra Phased Array radar, and being phased array, it directed its beams not in 360 degrees pattern but in a small solid angle against the designated target. Since it also directed all its power there, if some Chinese pilot got very close to the radar, he would be turned to toast within his cockpit, and as much as this bizarre idea of Chinese food might have humoured the missile teams, it wasn’t their main objective. This was deadly work, and it wasn’t the Chinese alone who faced the dangers. They had ARMs too, and if one of these hit the tracked radar vehicles, the whole battery would come crashing down.

To avoid that, the Rajendra Radar at Sukerating was to be used selectively and only for guidance of missiles in a particular sector of the kill zone. That way, the solid angle projected out could be kept small and to the point and thus avoid giving emissions to the anti-radiation missiles about to be released, unless of course, the ARM actually crossed this thin pencil beam of radar out of pure bad luck.

The main Kill zone scanning guidance, therefore, was to come from the 3D-CAR at Chabua, which had sufficient range to tell the Rajendra where to look, after which the Rajendra took over, thus avoiding the use of the Battery’s 2D surveillance radar. The plan was only going to work until the 3D-CAR got hit when the SU-30MKK force striking Chabua reached the base. But it surely gave the other two bases a fighting chance to survive early hits from the Chinese. This was another brainchild of the Group commander and this smartly thought out plan had been his work for a year’s time since he had been posted here. In the next few minutes his entire year’s work was about to be tested.

In a small forest near the base at Sukerating, the first trailer mounted Akash turned a little on its base and stopped for a whole three seconds. Then there was a tremendous dust cloud that surrounded the trees and the first Akash leaped into the air in front of a yellow cone of flames and headed upwards. The entire path was visible in the night sky as the bright yellow dot reached a high altitude and then turned east. There were three other such launches within a gap of two seconds.

Then the first launcher launched another missile, and the other three launchers reciprocated. And a few seconds after this second volley had moved skywards, a third set of missiles leaped into air, leaving the dust and smoke covered trailer behind on the ground. Then it all turned quiet. All missiles had been expended, and the reloading vehicles screeched to a halt next to the launcher trailers and the reloading crews leaped out to get to work reloading the launcher vehicles. It wouldn’t matter much because by the time these missiles were reloaded, the Chinese aircrafts would reach the base, assuming that any of them survived the twelve missiles targeted at them.

The Chinese weren’t just sitting quietly, of course. They were punching off every anti-radiation missile they had for the last few seconds, in the hope that they could hit the radar vehicles before they were blown out of the sky. Six anti-radiation missiles were now heading towards the Rajendra radar vehicle and the 2D battery surveillance radar at Sukerating. It was a question of who got hit first. This time the god of war sided the Chinese. They had long known the capabilities of the Rajendra system thanks to the information collected by their intelligence sources and the help of their Pakistani allies in the ISI. Their anti-radiation missile seekers were tuned to find and destroy these specific targets, and the missiles clinically carried out this job just before the Akash missiles moved into terminal mode.

The blacked out base at Sukerating was suddenly lighted up with three bright fireballs at different sectors of the base as the Chinese missiles dived into the modified BMP vehicles and threw them tumbling into the air amidst fire and smoke. All radars received hits and the remaining three missiles dived into the 2D Battery Surveillance radar and shattered their mounts as well. All the crews inside these vehicles were killed. There was no point in reloading the missiles again. All missile guidance radars at Sukerating were now down.

Worse, the Akash missiles already in the air were now without guidance. The only good news was that by the time the Rajendra vehicle had been hit, two of the Chinese bomber optimised SU-30MKKs had been blotted out of the sky and three fighter Optimized SU-30MKKs had been blotted out as well, while the others had dived to low altitude. All seven other missiles were now wasted as they continued to move east towards non-existing targets. The four Su-30MKKs that had survived the initial assault now moved towards the base. They were out of ARMs now, and unfortunately for them the Gun Battery radars were still operating, and the Iglas didn’t need any radar. But these were all point defence systems, and they began to take action only when the Chinese had already commenced bombing runs.

The first SU-30MKK streaked over the base runway and dropped an entire set of ‘Iron’ bombs, and the resulting earth shaking explosions shattered the runway concrete, doing serious damage that would take time filling up. As the aircraft streaked over the runway, it was followed by small puffs of fire and shrapnel as the gun crews got into the act, and from within the trees a couple of Iglas streaked into the air and chased the aircraft down as the Chinese pilot dropped chaff and flares all around and weaved in the air, all of which was of no use.

The first SA-16 slammed into the tail section and staggered the aircraft in mid air, slowing it down during which time the Chinese crew ejected. The second missile streaked the wrong way and followed the flares until it ran out of fuel. The SU-30MKK slammed into the earth below and vanished into a ball of fire, lighting up the night sky and showed the Chinese crew landing at the end of the base under their parachutes. The gun crews now turned their guns around for another target, one of who was heading straight for the last remaining gun battery radar. The Chinese got there first and the two cluster bombs he dropped enveloped the gun radar and left it surrounded by smoke. The last working radar at the base was down. The guns had spotted the Chinese aircraft and the tracer rounds continued to fire into the night sky against the silhouette of the SU-30, but to no gain. There was now no working radar left at Sukerating. And the three remaining Chinese aircrafts got to work dismantling the base. Several explosions in the next few seconds knocked out the ATC building and the main base facilities.

The Igla teams were waiting quietly near the trees for the Chinese pilots to make a mistake like the first aircraft and come to low or even medium altitude. Their patience was rewarded a minute later as one of the Chinese pilots attempted a low level precision bombing run with his ‘Iron’ bombs against the handful of HAS that he had identified from the sky. This time the missile engaged him before he dropped his bombs and his aircraft blew up in a shattering explosion a few hundred feet off the ground and sent the burning fuselage crashing into his intended targets. A section of the wing with the bombs still attached fell near one of the Akash launcher vehicles. Both members of the Chinese crew were killed instantly.

As this grim battle was being fought at low altitude, the remaining air-to-air armed SU-30MKK was flying much higher in a racetrack pattern over the base, watching as his comrades were flying amidst the mad amounts of tracer and missile fire and attempting to hold their own. He had done his job at least, he reflected, and air superiority had been achieved. All he could do now was wait and watch as the base at Sukerating was destroyed by the two flying SU-30MKKs below him.

By the time the Chinese pilot and WSO heard the mad screeching of the RWR it was too late. There were bandits in the rear port quarter of the sky and already a missile was in the air. The Chinese pilot increased power and attempted to dive down but he wasn’t fast enough. A R-73 slammed into the rear port side and then a white flash of fire consumed their aircraft. The burning wreckage tumbled downwards, trailing massive flames as jet fuel continued to burn. The two Mig-21s of the Chabua force that had escaped south after engaging these SU-30MKKs had returned.

The SU-30MKK pilots below saw the massive flash above them and instinctively jerked their heads upwards and saw their fighter escort coming down in a ball of fire. They too realised what had happened. There were two Indian Bisons somewhere to their southeast and they now had no interceptor support. The two Chinese pilots immediately lighted engine reheat and darted into higher altitude. They still had air-to-air missiles for air defence. As they headed high up and southeast of the base, the Indian soldiers and airmen on the ground realized what had happened as well. There was a loud uproar and cheering from all the people at the base as they saw the Chinese leaving to fight for their lives.

The two Chinese SU-30MKKs attempted to locate the two Indian fighters only to find that the Indian pilots were again escaping to the southeast. Both Chinese pilots cursed as one and continued to light their afterburners as they chose to end this meddling once and for all.

In all their anger it didn’t occur to them that they had just aborted their own attacks on a defenceless base…
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 28 Apr 2007 00:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby JCage » 27 Apr 2007 22:32

Vivek,

Several mistakes in your post. For an ARM, ie the KH-31P to work it needs specific information gathered previously. So where did the PLAAF get the working frequencies of the 3D-CAR/ Rajendra from, or for that matter the 2D BSR? The Kh-31P is flightline programmable, not inflight programmable. And even then, the CAR et al can change frequencies for ECM and avoiding ARM strikes. And these frequencies are guarded as manna from heaven- doubt that ISI or anyone can get anywhere near them, despite all the brouhaha in the press.

The conclusion is that the PLAAF would not use ARMs but cruise missiles or even dumb/Precision guided bombs with ELINT sensors to cue their attacks with. They would first use ELINT to determine on which axis the radars were and use triangulation to determine their position, backed up by sat surveillance or UAVs for exact details, but for that they need to get within India, or mount ELINT missions.

Second, the Rajendra system can be used as an unmanned radar and the Battery Control Center controls the operations. The entire point of this is to reduce vulnerability and save lives. Similarly, the 3D CAR is on vehicle, but its workstations are on another. Similarly, the launchers are unmanned as well.

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Postby Sudhanshu » 28 Apr 2007 00:08

Hurrah!!

Ha .. ha ...haa.... maja aa gaya.

Special kind of medal must be given to those two "notorious" Mig 21 fly-boys.

Its ironic, whole battle was funny despite the heavy losses we suffered. And it is very very informative too. Good work Vivek!

Such writing will surely encourage our younger generation to chose country's defense as their profession.

Just a suggestion, if you write the names (like the name of group commander) it makes the story more personalized and interesting.

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Postby saty » 28 Apr 2007 13:47

JCage wrote:Vivek,

And these frequencies are guarded as manna from heaven- doubt that ISI or anyone can get anywhere near them, despite all the brouhaha in the press.



Hello JCage, could you please continue the "moderation" of the thread to ensure that Vivek's post are cent per cent correct?

I say this because based on my limited knowledge it appears to me that after a long time Vivek is a author who is actually creating a very possible militarry scenario which is almost exactly correct in details.

So if it can be made 100% proof it sort of becomes a text book. And who better than you to proof read it.

However do give him a bit of artistic freedom (after pointing it out as such)
for example for the sake of a great scenario assume that ISI did get its hand on the frequencies, through a honeypot operation maybe, or whatever :)

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Postby Rahul M » 28 Apr 2007 17:13

vivek, doing gr8 inspite of the minor hiccups. :D

btw, why is still only a pitiful # of IAF birdies in the air ? in 2007-12 timeframe we would have about 60-80 mki s, not to speak of upgraded mirages and mig-29s , about 100 of them !

on hindsight,
considering that IAF was actually preparing for at least a limited war with the PLAAF b'cuz of the burma issue it seems they are grossly unprepared while the chinese who probably won't
have expected such a conflict are able to mobilise entire armies of tanks, artillery MBRLS and fleets of bombers and fighters, all in a day !! :shock: :shock:

just think of op parakram, infrastructurally we were much much better placed on western front than china is on the tibet/NE and then think how much time it took for us to mobilise.
that inspite of the fact that our peacetime deployments there are always considerable, something that can't be said of the chinese in these sectors. their elite weapons/formations are all placed (mostly) for a taiwan conflict far away from these regions.

and the level of PLAAF air attack is just impossible to arrange in this time frame. think of the huge variety and # of A2A/A2G munitions that have to be transferred from base depots, checked thoroughly and mated to a/c , sat images to be analyzed, battle plans to be discussed and finally decided upon, pilots to be briefed and so on.

PLAAF may be changing for the better but it is still miles from becoming a very competent force. their training hours are still miserably low. which other af do you know of whose pilots ram into prop driven planes to take them down ? (and loose both his a/c and life in the process)

WTH, even USAF will find it impossible to mount such a campaign within a day !!
in A'nistan they faced no threats whatsoever and political decision of aerial bombardment
was a foregone conlusion the day after 9/11. yet when did that attack actually start ?

admittedly they didn't have a airbase in pakiland rightaway but they did have have bases in the gulf (they were patrolling iraq, remember ?). dist from these bases to a'stan is in many cases less than dist between india and the chinese bases on the east coast.

map

I think people harping away to make the war more "equal-equal" has led you to portray the PLAAF and the PLA to be much more professional and competent than they are.

this war will favour India in the start because of the surprise factor. their response, sure to be massive would probably have taken 2 days at least, if not more.

till their preparations are complete they would hold fort and minimize losses while IAF would go on the offensive. :twisted:

other than the time frame (which you can decompress) and not reflecting the fact that IAF was actually better prepared than it's adversary, you are just doing superb !!

regards.

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Postby ksmahesh » 28 Apr 2007 19:24

Excellent narration. Although I agree with "Rahul M" on many aspects yet when formulating a war scenario it shall be indeed better to overestimate enemy and under estimate our own preparations without compromising the nature of operational decision making.(JMT). This would help us in creating invisible reserves (Accounting practice in companies to undervalue assets).

I have no problem with feeling the pinch of chini muscle in the initial stages of battle because in such cases the loses on chini side shall be enormous. I once asked Vishavnathan Anand (Was lucky to meet him once onlee :wink: ) about best strategy if enemy is more powerful than you. His answer was DACA (defence and counter attack). This is quite evident in a lot of military conflicts from eastern fron in world war II to Israeli Yom-Kippur war (JMT again).

Before people start gunning for me: JMT onlee :)

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 28 Apr 2007 21:16

considering that IAF was actually preparing for at least a limited war with the PLAAF b'cuz of the burma issue it seems they are grossly unprepared while the chinese who probably won't
have expected such a conflict are able to mobilise entire armies of tanks, artillery MBRLS and fleets of bombers and fighters, all in a day !!


Rahul, you are making me spill the beans on the scenario plot, so will refrain from giving a more detailed answer now, but I will remember it for some time in the future when this war is over. At this time, I will say only this:
Who said anything about the Chinese not expecting a war?

Look, guys, just hang in there, all right? Wait for the scenario to conclude before making evaluations. You might just be surprised… :wink:

I feel that most of your questions have been coming because of the Indian situation in the last few posts of the scenario, but I would suggest looking at the bigger strategic picture while making evaluations.

in 2007-12 timeframe we would have about 60-80 mki s, not to speak of upgraded mirages and mig-29s , about 100 of them !


Surely by the 2007-12, we will have the numbers as Rahul_M suggests, but there is also a thousand kilometer frontier to defend. Not to mention Pakistan also. If you do the calculations yourself, including the small Indian tanker fleet, and human factors like crew fatigue, you will see the kind of dispersion this entails. I did this during my planning for the war scenario, and I have to say, I have portrayed the capabilities of both sides on the basis of those calculations. See the numbers yourself if you want…I can put these up.

Even if we neglect these and concentrate on the specific theater, there are a few things that deserve more attention.

What if the intelligence on Chinese response capabilities was flawed?

What if we picked up the Chinese buildup but political factors delayed buildup on our side? There are literally thousands of cases throughout history when such a thing has happened.

What if one of our commanders made a mistake during deployments based on flawed intelligence or planning?

All our thinking of Chinese reactions is based on previous wars and contemporary military situations around the world. But which battle plan based on the past has ever survived first contact with the enemy?

What if the Chinese commanders showed more flexibility during this war than their previous ones?

What if political factors are involved, bizarre as they might be?

There are literally thousands of factors involved with such a situation, and any of them can combine to give you ‘n’ number of different outcomes.

Suggestion: a little more open mindedness will help…especially on this thread!! :)

I think people harping away to make the war more "equal-equal" has led you to portray the PLAAF and the PLA to be much more professional and competent than they are.


I don’t know why you suggested that.
I have a very clear scenario in mind and despite the controversy it raises, or the discussions or arguments that follow, I have not and will not compromise my scenario, unless some technical mistake has been pointed out, which I will surely take note of and correct and modify.

Vivek Ahuja

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Postby Devendra » 28 Apr 2007 22:49

vivek

waiting for todays part..
please post it soon.

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Postby JCage » 29 Apr 2007 00:23

Personally, I think Vivek is doing a great job, and I have in the past not sought to make corrections because after all, its the authors choice and second, why reveal data in our enthusiasm.

Having said that we can make some Open source corrections from time to time. For instance, one thing would be to model AAMs and MANPADS as less effective, even if on both sides ...the Indian side will certainly use deception jammers to protect their 40 Million $ birds. Coming to the Chinese, the regimental attack scenario by Vivek is excellent thinking, only caveat is if the PRC/PLAAF has ever trained for such ops. Till date they dont appear to be doing so. Also, if they did do it, distributed sections make more sense than en masse "wedges" of a/c. More tactical freedom and maneuver space.

So what do I think would occur? The Chinese will use their MKKs as fighter controllers (two seat) for Su-27SK's/J-11s. They have new russian datalinks in the last MKK batch and the SKs were getting russian datalinks as well.

Also, one does not need to go "low" to bomb unless you have specific munitions like runway busters which require parastabilization and hence level delivery. You can conduct radar guided bombing and save a spot of trouble with real close in defences.

My few cents!!

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Postby ksmahesh » 29 Apr 2007 01:22

Paging Vivek.......
Missing again? My dear Vivek, in the larger interests of addicted BRFites to your scenarios and precarious security situation in NE your leave is cancelled ( :D ) Please report to your battle station and give us our daily shot of vivekophine.

Eagerly waiting......

PS: you are allowed to have all artistic freedom.
the delay is causing us avoidable suffering :(( :((

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 29 Apr 2007 03:11

CRISIS RESPONSE CENTER
NEW DELHI, INDIA
1955 HRS THURSDAY


The meeting had been going on for quite some time now, and till now it had focussed only on the situation so far. It still wasn’t over. About half an hour ago, Brigadier Sharma had concluded yet another situation report coming from the NE regarding the ongoing Chinese artillery attacks. That’s when the CAS had taken over the briefing. An air war of brutal proportions was taking place over Tibet, and it was being followed in near real-time in this room.

There was a large digital map of the region under attack and it had all military dispositions marked on it for both sides. The lighting in the room had been reduced to near darkness so that everybody was watching the screen as the small triangles representing threats were updated regularly. Across the table sat the Defence Minister, trying to listen to the Briefings given by various people on the situation as it evolved before his eyes. He wondered that if he was having so much problem keeping tabs of his limited resources, how in the world were the Chinese doing it with their massive resources? Assuming they were doing it at all in the first place. That brought a smile on his weary face.

At the moment the focus was on the markings on the map showing 3 T.A.C. dispositions at Chabua, Ledo and Sukerating airbases. These were marked in blue circles. There were several red triangles as well, and nobody needed to be told what they represented. Minutes before, of the two red triangles around Sukerating, each representing one flight of aircrafts, one had disappeared all of a sudden. A blue triangle had come back north after heading south. These had been the two Mig-21s. And while their pilots were at this very moment sitting inside their cockpits and sweating inside their flight suits, here in this air-conditioned room they represented a blue triangle to the military commanders. Here the war was a clinically detached experience for the people around. Two more red triangles had just started to move south towards Chabua and Ledo respectively…

“That will be the SU-30MKK strike force heading towards Chabua. One triangle represents the escort-optimised aircrafts and the southern triangle the ground attack loaded ones. They will hit Chabua within the next…â€

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Postby ksmahesh » 29 Apr 2007 03:35

Tibet will be great but lets not give AP. :greedy: :P :P

What happened at 3TAC ........ How were the chini able to penetrate our defences.....(although not surprising - bloody Su30MKK) :twisted: :twisted:

Waiting for next episode.................

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Postby Hari Sud » 29 Apr 2007 05:21

Defence Minister ordering an attack on Tibet, without checking with the Prime Minister and National Defence Council........Ha Ha Ha.

More fiction than possible realism.



Hari Sud

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Postby pradeepe » 29 Apr 2007 05:45

Vivek, you have raised the bar very high! Very nice narration.

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Postby ksmahesh » 29 Apr 2007 06:31

Hari Sud wrote:Defence Minister ordering an attack on Tibet, without checking with the Prime Minister and National Defence Council........Ha Ha Ha.

More fiction than possible realism.


Prime minister has already sanctioned attack on chini targets in Tibet that is why earlier operation was launched by Jaguars. Once permission for a principle is given PMO shall not intervene in minute details of defence ops. So please show more understanding and let author concentrate on scenario. I appreciate Vivek's response for major queries but we should give him more freedom by not picking pins and needles onlee.

JMT

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Postby Sudhanshu » 29 Apr 2007 07:28

Good answer ksmahesh.

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Postby niran » 29 Apr 2007 11:30

Gentle men & Ladies of the forum,

Please, His Honorable MOD Cannot order an attack of any kind, any where without the written order signed by President,countersigned by PM countersigned by Home minister, etc etc. Therefore Please, methink our exalted author should correct this and call it as a loss of self control on the part of His Honor.Very much possible under the current situation.

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Postby Sudhanshu » 29 Apr 2007 11:31

Now... it has already been 24 hr after hostality broke out.. the agency which has great interest in situations like this,UN, must come into picture.

I am curious to know, how Vivek is potraying the world reaction on this, especially our all seasoned "friend" Pakistan and our strategic ally America.

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Postby ksmahesh » 29 Apr 2007 12:03

ajay pratap wrote:Gentle men & Ladies of the forum,

Please, His Honorable MOD Cannot order an attack of any kind, any where without the written order signed by President,countersigned by PM countersigned by Home minister, etc etc. Therefore Please, methink our exalted author should correct this and call it as a loss of self control on the part of His Honor.Very much possible under the current situation.


perhaps Army men need Written permission in triplicate on a form-XXX from President, Prime minister, Cabinet and parliament if they want to sneeze, eh? :lol:

President declares state of war on recommendation of cabinet. Once the approval is given then apart from first nuclear strike war is handled by defence HQ. Even retaliatory neclear strike is independent of Political leaders because Delhi may be no more after enemy's nuclear attack.

According to you in such cases we shall have to wait for elections for electing Parliament, which in turn shall elect PM and then elections for President. After completion of electoral process which may take nearly 6 months ONLEE the army will get the orders to strike back. Great policy, I must say. :shock:

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Postby niran » 29 Apr 2007 12:44

because Delhi may be no more after enemy's nuclear attack.

Methink you yourself answered. Dear sir, in this scenario Me Have not read any where about PM & President being incapacitated. Then MOD is powerless
to issue an attack order.

Yes, we need, all the above signatures,due to the fact India is not a banana republic. Indian defense forces are professionals. They have all the proper
protocols, for every eventualities.and Saar, defense HQ always have PM as its Head.MOD performs as a deputy sidekick.

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Postby KiranM » 29 Apr 2007 12:44

Hari and Ajay, it is not a binding rule that all operations carried out by the armed forces need prior approval from the PM or other higher ups once war is declared. When a war starts military actions start having their own tempo. It is foolish even to expect such approval as you outlined is required for even the nuts and bolts of a war due to the fluidity of battle- as in the ground situation can change within minutes, if not seconds, in the modern battlefield; by when the 'approved' action might as well be inconsequential.
However, it is also prudent to note that DefMin or PMO can draw guidelines to wage war (for eg., no-crossing-LOC order during Op Vijay). But these guidelines have to be outlined well in advance. If there is no such restriction on a particular type of tactical operation, a theatre commander has the prerogative to launch it.

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Postby niran » 29 Apr 2007 12:57

Dear Sir,
Me agree. full 100% agree. but here in the current situation, MOD is ordering an attack on another country in order to take over. PIVOT-HAMMER as me recall was a divisionary attack. to convert it as a full blown attack,metink MOD can't do.

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Postby KiranM » 29 Apr 2007 13:26

Ajay, in Vivek's last post, as far as I infer, Pivot Hammer is an air operation. Now planes conquering territory is news to me. :lol: What the DefMin in that post meant was, if PLAAF can attack assets in Arunachal and decimate the defences, so can India in Tibet. Counter-attack is definitely one of the Defence HQ's prerogatives once war has been officially declared.
The kind of 'approval' you are talking about is only for full-fledged ground invasion deep into enemy territory(in addition to nuclear strike and conventional strikes on strategic targets ), which then transforms from tactical to strategic situation. Please note, minor incursions into enemy lines for tactical defence by land forces also is part of these prerogatives. In fact, this was one of the roles for the now defunct Holding Corps of IA.
Last edited by KiranM on 29 Apr 2007 17:30, edited 1 time in total.

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Postby Hari Sud » 29 Apr 2007 16:21

When Chinese decided to attack Delhi, specific order came from the Chinese Prime Minister. That was not a land attack. It was an air attack. In India the armed forces command and control rests with the Prime Minister, cabinet with written order issued by the President. The latter is commander in chief. There are no second guessing to it.

In India as Ajay stated very clearly, the Minister of Defence has no powers to order such escalation. Only the President, duly confirmed by the Prime Minister and cabinet is absolutely essential.

Can I ask one question?

Why is everybody running to defend Vivek?

He is doing fine. There are problems in his write up. If the more experienced people try and correct it, so that he does not repeat it again, how many of you think that is wrong attitude.

My advice to you, stop defending Vivek.


Hari Sud

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Postby ksmahesh » 29 Apr 2007 16:55

Tibet is not BEJING....Attack on AP were not ordered by chinese political leadership...... Vivek is writing scenario and he cannot be bothered for such minor matters..... hence people are not defending Vivek. Infact he was not defended for error in the number of aircraft. So clearly the problem is in principle.

Do not take it personally but as Kiran has mentioned broad guidelines are set by PMO at the outset but in this case pivot hammer was already concieved and authorised. It was temporarily paused so as to shift planes in NE. hence another permission is not required.

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Postby joy_roy » 29 Apr 2007 17:10

hari...you have got it all wrong...the PIVOT HAMMER is already authorised by the PM....as vivek stated in one of is very early post.It was a question of WHEN...and MoD has that power to decide when and how to launch a certain operation.Apart of that....you should consider that it was an attack on the capital of India....so it HAD to be authorised by the chinese premiere...but on the other hand....tibet is not anywhere near that significant...so MoD can decide upon it.The thing is once the state of war is declared PM and the cabinet aint gonna decide on every single move or to authorise them...the MoD and the forces commanders will decide on that according to situation.But if theres a big decision has to be taken then it requires authorisation of PM and the cabinet..such as use of nuclear weapons...or attacking very sensitive targets such as..beijing..shanghai to name a few in this case.btw...another thing i would like to point out is.....STOP DIRECTING OTHERS....from the very begining you have been passing orders to the authors and others....i hope you might understand its not very pleasing....and if you dont restrain yourself we will deal with your posts accordingly.

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Postby KiranM » 29 Apr 2007 17:21

Hari, wrt your last post, the Chinese PM asked PLAAF to attack political targets in Delhi. On the other hand, as Mahesh says Pivot Hammer is to target tactical military targets in Tibet.

I am not defending Vivek, just putting forth what I think is right. Now am not saying that I may not be wrong. Will be grateful if someone in the loop(as in present or ex-military or in contact with the same) of such matters can settle this bone of contention.

Guess Admin has to start a new topic titled Bones from Possible Indian Military Scenarios. :D


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