Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part X

Rakesh
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Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part X

Postby Rakesh » 05 Nov 2007 18:26

Old Threads in Military Scenarios Archive.

Part 1

Part 2

Part 3

Part 4

Part 5

Part 6

Part 7

Part 8

Part 9

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Postby Mihir.D » 05 Nov 2007 19:01

I think we have missed out on a part here. The part on the ANC and happenings on the NE border .

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Postby p_saggu » 06 Nov 2007 08:56

Dear Admin,
Is it possible to provide a link to the NEXT Mil scenario in the last page of each part in the archives section, just like there is a link to the previous scenario in each new Part.
I will improve continuity.

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Postby Rakesh » 07 Nov 2007 17:36

Hi Saggu,

I will work on that. Thanks.

Rakesh

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Postby MN Kumar » 08 Nov 2007 22:51

Thought this might also be an appropriate thread for some war gaming read from the IDR archives:
OP TOPAC: The Kashmir Imbroglio
IDR think-tank war-gamed and published in July 1989 the anticipated course of action by Pakistan in Kashmir under the title OP TOPAC.. This came true in the subsequent years!. We reproduce this war gaming done by IDR, in original that was published in the issue of July 89 to show that New Delhi despite the warning by IDR Team,did not take counter measures and allowed the situation to deteriorate. - Editor

Operation Topac was named after Amru. an Inca Prince who fought an unconventional war against Spanish rule in eighteenth-century Uruguay.

The aim of ‘OP TOPAC’ is to draw attention of the free-thinker, policy-maker and the defence planner to the dangerous potential of the current developments in Jammu & Kashmir. Part fact, part fiction, the scenarios visualized have been based on the trends, which have become manifest in the subcontinent in the last few years.

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Postby RamaY » 09 Nov 2007 20:31

Happy Diwaali to you all!

I hoped Vivekji would write another episode as a Diwali gift :(

Nice Weekend guys!

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Postby Shankar » 09 Nov 2007 20:39

HI Guys -a very very happy Deepavali to all of you

And sorry for another unintended break -off to my favorite land of snows and Sukhois and Migs and Typhoons and blackjacks - and Vodkas to Moscova

Igor is meeting me and so most likely we shall have a micro BR meet in Moscow -all BRfites in the region welcome(if any)

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 09 Nov 2007 21:54

Happy Diwali to all!!

I just happened to get a break these days out of my murderous schedule to actually write the next scene. It had gotten so bad at work that I had to read and catch up on the scenario myself before I got my act together.

How I wish for more time, but I have to make a living as well, right? Hope you guys understand. But enough Bandwidth wasted with my ranting. Back to the war... :)

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 09 Nov 2007 21:56

THE NATIONAL AIRBORNE COMMAND CENTRE (NACC)
CALL SIGN: PATRIOT EAGLE
AIRSPACE OVER MAHARASHTRA
0900 IST FRIDAY


The MIG-29s had taken up their usual position alongside the lumbering Airborne Command post. The flight had broken the top cloud cover almost together and was greeted by a bright sunny blue sky above. It was bright enough, in fact, to force the passengers to pull down the shades on the windows. Inside the aircraft, however, a different kind of heat was on. The Defence Minister was inside the Communications cabin of the aircraft alongside the COAS and the Air Chief. They were busy monitoring the incoming transmissions from the IV Corps Commander in Arunachal Pradesh. At least, they had been trying to…

All Communications from IV Corps HQ had ceased fifteen minutes ago very abruptly. The Communications officers on board the aircraft were being chewed by their seniors to try and regain contact. But that stopped after the V-COAS, currently in the GHQ in Delhi called to confirm that they too had lost contact. Then the other two Corps Commanders in the region, commanding the XXXIII and III Corps respectively, had called in to say that they too had lost contact with IV Corps. More commanders were filling the radio waves, but it was suffice to say that IV Corps had dropped out completely. The Defence Minister and the COAS were half expecting the worst possible news when it came forward from a different source altogether.

The Air Force EAC Commander had called in almost as soon as the rest of the army people to say that one of his MI-17 crew had visually confirmed that dozens of black pillars of smoke were reaching for the sky around IV Corps headquarters area as well as from other important bases in the region.

The UAV Crews at Bomdila were also checking in by that time to inform that similar fires had been spotted near Tawang as well. They, however, had more definite news as to what had happened. Being directly above the action, their screens had captured the Chinese cruise missiles moving south for a few seconds. But that did not entail enough time for them to send out a warning to anybody before the impacts. The fact that their own base had escaped destruction was because they were not using their traditional base to the south near the IV Corps HQ.

This latter base had also been hit, but the UAVs had not been there. It had taken good luck or in-depth foresight by someone to come up with the idea to move these units further to the north for a variety of reasons just before the war had started. Nevertheless, the end result was that the Chinese had attempted to neutralise the Indian UAV force in the region, but had completely missed them. But they had managed to hit numerous other targets using the element of surprise that their saturation tactics had allowed. IV Corps HQ was no more. Several Brigade HQs had dropped off the map as well.

The Divisional HQ at Tawang was still alive only because one of the few Tunguska systems north of there had destroyed a couple of Cruise missiles as they had passed overhead. In return for this, one Tunguska unit lay wrecked after the massive warhead detonation close to it had shredded the top mounted radar and guns. This vehicle was now being pulled out from the battlefield. And the survival of the Divisional C3I was only a partial victory since the Divisional Commander ad his staff were still trying to raise their Brigade HQs to no avail. It was like a head without a body.

That was when the Defence Minister took over the decision making role. He ordered the COAS to dispatch another General Officer from some other theatre to go over and take control of the ground situation. He also ordered the EAC Commander to dispatch his Helicopter force to allow the rapid movement of these new commanders and their staffs to re-establish the various command nodes. New equipment was to be brought in anyway it could. All command centres were to be now dispersed. Then he gave the order that amounted to retribution. The Brahmos Missile batteries that had taken part in the NORTH-SWIPE Operations were to be reactivated from their dormant status levels. The DIA was ordered to prepare intelligence of the Chinese command centres that were coordinating the Chinese advance towards Tawang.

The Defence Minister was suitable impressed when he was told that all such intelligence was already being compiled for some time now. But he was forced to raise an eyebrow when he was told that most of these targets, barring the higher level ones, were already on Indian soil. The Chinese were moving their command units south almost as fast as their fighting units. It was almost as if it had all been practiced and planned out.

And the crux of the statement was significant: it was no longer a Border war. The Chinese were now on Indian soil, and the war had come home…

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Postby Avarachan » 12 Nov 2007 09:10

vivek_ahuja wrote:Happy Diwali to all!!

I just happened to get a break these days out of my murderous schedule to actually write the next scene. It had gotten so bad at work that I had to read and catch up on the scenario myself before I got my act together.

How I wish for more time, but I have to make a living as well, right? Hope you guys understand. But enough Bandwidth wasted with my ranting. Back to the war... :)


Vivek, your writing is of a very high quality ... I could easily believe that you could make a living by publishing your work. (I have a background as a writer and editor, and I'm being serious about this.)

If you email me, I can try to point you in the right direction. You can contact me at jsmith30301 at yahoo dot com. (I don't want to post my main email address on a public forum, so that's the reason for "jsmith".)

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Postby parshuram » 12 Nov 2007 10:50

vivek_ahuja wrote:[b]And the crux of the statement was significant: it was no longer a Border war. The Chinese were now on Indian soil, and the war had come home…


well vivek would love to see the Opposite too in future , with Indians on chinese soil . would really be disappointed if the war ends by just we defeating chinese in 100 % defensive role . The lesson this time should be loud and clear to chionese ... Don't dare this again

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Postby Hari Sud » 13 Nov 2007 18:14

Vivek

I belive some of the suggestions above are noteworthy.

I may add a bit more.

There are 5 battles in progress in three to four days of hostilities i.e.

The air battle in the East & west is still ongoing. The battle in the Twang area got nastier, battle for Ladakh's southern area is still ongoing, a naval air battle is in progress with planes from south China heading to Bay of Bengal and the likely sea battle.

It is very easy to loose track of any one of the above if progress on each front is not made frequently. A recap of progress in each front should be included in every new episode.

The forgoing is more important because now the posting has dropped to about one a week, hence easier to loose track.

Vivek, we are your fans all suggestions should give you a bit more ammunition to make post get even better

Thanks


Hari

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Postby Sanku » 15 Nov 2007 08:15

Vivek;

Just write; dont bother about stitiching up scenarios; theres a browser button to look at old parts for those who need; just write take the war forward and post post post.

For the love of BRF we need more posts

Sanku

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Postby krishnan » 15 Nov 2007 09:07

Avarachan wrote:If you email me, I can try to point you in the right direction. You can contact me at jsmith30301 at yahoo dot com. (I don't want to post my main email address on a public forum, so that's the reason for "jsmith".)


Off topic , for people who are vary of giving their email ids in public domain, try using www.mailinator.com. For example someone wants to contact you, but you dont want to give any of your email ids, just give him something like

<emailid>@mailinator.com

it could be anything

xxx@mailinator.com or xyz@mailinator.com

Ids are created on the go and deleted after few days. No need to signup.

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Postby nits » 15 Nov 2007 09:46

Seems some one in MOD is reading Vivek's Scenario

Read this - http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news ... et/239453/

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Postby parshuram » 20 Nov 2007 13:42

kya vivek & shankar ji ... you come like advertisements . there is just a burst then u suddenly disappear ... Please guys .... You have made a fan in me for your writing so please keep posting

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Postby p_saggu » 20 Nov 2007 20:48

Time for the PM and The President to address the nation to apprise them of the situation on the borders. And ofcourse the PIB breifings.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 22 Nov 2007 09:42

kya vivek & shankar ji ... you come like advertisements . there is just a burst then u suddenly disappear ... Please guys .... You have made a fan in me for your writing so please keep posting


Believe me when I say that its even more frustrating for me to not be able to write the scenes more frequently. There was a time when i was able to write the posts almost daily. Now, I often have to read my own posts to get an idea of where I left off. It's kind of a sad state of affairs for this thread for some time now. Hopefully things will improve in the coming days...

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 22 Nov 2007 09:51

THE STRAITS OF MALLACCA
1045 IST FRIDAY


The first sign of trouble for the Indians came much sooner than planned for by the Chinese commanders. And it was a result of the chaos that was present over the skies of Myanmar at this time. The Pro-Chinese forces were attacking the loyalists in the south of the country with all available aircrafts. But the loyalists had aircrafts too, and the Rebel pilots were understandably jerky.

Further compounding matters was that the Myanmar armed forces had a communications network that was patchy at the best of times, and this was hardly that. As a result, even though the Chinese bombers had been given clearance to overfly the airspace by the rebel commanders, it still did not prevent one of their Mig-29 pilots to come up into the air and challenge a separate group of H-6 ECM aircrafts on the issue of their over flight. It was yet another instance of what one might consider to be incompetence during peacetime but which was normal during war.

The issue was resolved quickly, but not before the radio silence was broken, and the Myanmar communication networks were hardly what one can call secure, especially given the fact that the Loyalists were already liaising with their Indian counterparts on the exact same issue for the past forty hours. In short, the Indians were reading most of what was being said in the air over Myanmar. The Chinese knew this. And it was why they had maintained total silence during their flight south. But this incident sent out a small whiff of the brewing trouble to the single Indian B-707 EW aircraft flying out of Port Blair where it was processed and analysed quickly. A few minutes after that the news was being sent out over encrypted networks to almost everybody in the ANC chain of command: the Chinese were coming...

The problem was that the Indian eyes and ears had been facing east, not north. And that was the first thing that needed rectification. The three Indian SU-30MKIs flying to the east were ordered to scramble to the north, along with the single Ka-31 AEW helicopter attempting to follow behind them. The other two Ka-31s on the ground at a secure helipad on the Andaman Islands were also scrambled, along with the three more SU-30MKIs that were at Port Blair. The single IL-78 was told to meet up with the three Sukhois already in the air and tank them up before pulling away from the battle zone. All Indian Maritime surveillance platforms were also told to back off temporarily.

The Chinese threat was significant. And to make matters worse, the Indian pilots did not know the numbers of enemy aircrafts. All they had was bits and pieces of information intercepted by the ECM birds that told them that something was coming. It would take some time before the matters became clearer. Unfortunately, any cruise missile launched by the Chinese would be done from the outer limits of the missile capabilities. That meant that the chances of the Indian fighters meeting up with the Chinese H-6s before they could launch was remote. The ANC commander understood this. He had already sent out Flash messages to the Indian Army Commander who commanded the Infantry brigade to tell his men to scatter into their defensive positions. He had also ordered the immediate surge of all remaining naval and civilian ships still in port on all islands.

The civilian side to this was worrying. The number of Indian vessels still in the waters around the islands ran into the dozens, from the smallest fishing vessels to Merchant ships, and these were spread out over a very large area of the sea around the islands. The Chinese would surely be gunning for these unarmed ‘economic’ targets, and all he had to protect them, his command and the Indian control over the islands was a dozen or so Naval aircrafts and another half a dozen IAF aircrafts. The bottom-line was clear: he needed help. And the only help around was too far to reach him in time. But he called out for it anyway...

THE BAY OF BENGAL
1055 IST FRIDAY


On the other end of his helpline was a person who was looking through his binoculars from the bridge while his juniors were frantically working to get the job done. The first MIG-29K screamed forward and leaped off the steel deck with a full load of missiles underneath the wings. The undercarriage came up and the afterburner went off several seconds after that. A second aircraft was already taking its position on the flight deck, while a third and then a fourth awaited their turns. The Admiral removed his binoculars and walked over to chart table where the Captain of the ship was buried in his thoughts. The problem was clear to both men: they were too far away. The threat axis just was not covered enough. By the time these aircrafts would reach the combat zone, the Chinese would be on the way home.

And that was precisely why the MIG-29Ks were not heading towards the combat zone, but to a location north of it, where they would stay in a holding pattern. The Chinese could not be stopped from making their attack runs this late in the game, but they were certainly not going home to tell about it either. Not if the commander of the Indian Carrier Taskforce had anything to say about it...

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Postby p_saggu » 22 Nov 2007 13:54

Vivek, A map of the A&N theater would help now

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Postby asbchakri » 29 Nov 2007 17:30

Yeah a Map would very much help.

Vivek, Shankar where r u guys its nearly 1 week since the last post. Please guys we'r all looking for your next posts

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Postby Hari Sud » 04 Dec 2007 20:10

Guys

I believe Shankar & Vivek are preoccupied, hence are not proceeding with their scenarios. May I suggest that other very capable readers of this forum may begin posting their own scenarios.


Hari Sd
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Postby gauravjkale » 06 Dec 2007 16:08

Hari Sud wrote:Guys

I believe Shankar & Vivek are preoccupied, hence are not proceeding with their scenarios. May I suggest that other very capable readers of this forum may begin posting their own scenarios.


Hari Sd
Toronto



till the time both vivek and shankar are busy can anybody post a link to other senario writers. i am sure there must be lots of them around the globe.

i doubt wether they will be of same quality as vivek and shankar but i guess anything is better than nothing as we are all now adicted.

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Postby Sanku » 21 Dec 2007 13:26

Vivek is back on BRF!! Sing halleluhah

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Postby gopal.suri » 21 Dec 2007 13:53

Sanku wrote:Vivek is back on BRF!! Sing halleluhah

:?:

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Postby p_saggu » 21 Dec 2007 14:14

sanku wrote:Vivek is back on BRF!! Sing halleluhah


Kidhar kidhar?
I waj planning to issue a fatwa for Haajir ho in the Benis thread.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Dec 2007 14:25

Hi guys.

Got a nice little break during the holidays now to do some writing without interruption. let's see if we can get the ardent readers of this thread to come back again...

No more AWOL stuff till this particular war comes to an end... :twisted:

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Dec 2007 14:37

P_saggu sir,

can you post the Google-earth 3D image of the Laddakh Battle sector that you had posted in the previous avatar of this thread for continuity purposes?

Thanks in advance.

Vivek

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 21 Dec 2007 14:44

INDIAN ARMY POSITIONS
LOCATION: 34°21'3.62"N, 78°52'31.66"E
THE LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL (LAC)
EAST OF LEH, LADAKH
10 HRS FRIDAY


The Chinese were massing up their troops yet again. This time, however, their motive was clear. Maximum effort. No effort unexpended. Their Reserve Battalions had finished moving into the forward positions a few minutes ago. The Indian positions were already under heavy artillery fire for forty plus minutes now, and the positions were again covered with that all-too-familiar smoke and dust clouds as shell after shell rammed into the hilly terrain around the Indian trenches. The Indian aerial assault using the helicopters was long over, and was yet to return. The situation was vastly similar to the first round, but with two crucial differences: this was to be the last such round as far as the Chinese were concerned. Either the Indian positions would be overrun or the Chinese assault force would be littering the rocks around the Indian trenches. The other major difference was that this time around there was no confusion on the Indian side.

Lieutenant-Colonel Baweja had lost dozens of soldiers by now, but what remained was a battle-hardened combat team. And in the time during the attack by the Indian helicopter gun-ships, he had recovered his situational awareness after a new replacement team from Regimental HQ had joined him from the rear positions with a new set of Communications equipment. Baweja now had access to the same Indian artillery guns that had been at his disposal all along, but which he had not been able to call upon earlier thanks to the Comm-Blackout within his Battalion. Now the Indian artillery lay in wait, its guns pointing eastwards and with its crews waiting to pull the lanyard that would send the first Indian artillery shells raining down on the Chinese assault troops.

The fact that they were not already doing so was because Baweja had kept it that way. There were several reasons for this. One was the threat of the Chinese Counter-artillery fire that could kill off his support even before the battle started should he commit too early on. The other was that he wanted to let the Chinese think it was their game. He wanted the artillery to drop on the enemy at the last possible moment, when they were charging up the open hills towards his positions.

It also gave time to the Indian Pinaka Batteries that were mopping up one Chinese Artillery battery after another in a counter-battery mode that the Indian High Command had committed them as, to kill the Chinese artillery that was pounding his positions. He had been told over the radio that the Pinaka crews were having a ball of sorts. They were crushing the Chinese artillery systems within Laddakh because they outranged the Chinese tube artillery by a long margin. In effect, they were facing zero Counter-Battery fire as they lay waste to the Chinese guns up and down the LAC. The fact that Baweja’s position was still under the effect of the Chinese artillery was more due to the vast number of guns with the Chinese army than anything else.

In other words, it was going to take some time before all of the Chinese guns had been neutralized, and till that time, some Indian positions would continue to suffer. That his position was among the unlucky ones was pure coincidence. Nevertheless, he was more relaxed this time than he would have been without that piece of news behind him. So the war here is not going as badly as I thought. Good…

The Chinese commanders directly in front of him probably were aware of the situation around them just as Lt-Colonel Baweja was, and that helped explain the desperation within their moves: they were trying to get as much out of their initial advantage as possible before they were bogged down by the Indian artillery. It also meant that they were probably not as well prepared here as they appeared to be in Arunachal Pradesh.

Baweja was no fool. He was very much a thinking soldier as he was a tiger when it came to close combat situations. He was clever enough to take the actions of the Chinese soldiers and calculate from it the thoughts of their commanders and from that the overall enemy strategy or planning. And while he made a mental note to address this point later on, it did hatch some interesting ideas in his head.

Interesting…

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Postby p_saggu » 21 Dec 2007 14:46

Image

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Postby p_saggu » 21 Dec 2007 15:32

Image
Image

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Postby narasimba » 21 Dec 2007 15:59

just wondering how air battle works on the himalayan mountains? stealth aside, even with current aircraft, having accurate 3D terrain maps and engines robust enough to work the altitudes, would long range SAMs work? even for close range AAM or SAM if I get a cliff or mountain peak between the aircraft and the missile, will the missile lock break? athough due to colder climates IR signature of the aircraft sticks out, are the seekers smart enough to relock on a manoveuring aircraft?

how does a conservative FBW system of LCA deal with such terrain? trying to see it using the terrain for evasive action as well as for surprise attacks. if it comes to g tolerance of aircraft and missile, it would be UCAVs perhaps that can pull such stunts

was there a chance such digital knowledge of terrain would have helped IAF in kargil?

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 26 Dec 2007 02:34

INDIAN ARMY POSITIONS
LOCATION: 34°21'3.62"N, 78°52'31.66"E
THE LINE OF ACTUAL CONTROL (LAC)
EAST OF LEH, LADAKH
1020 HRS FRIDAY


The first movement was detected by the alert Indian defenders within moments. The Chinese infantry force was advancing. This was detected despite the heavy artillery bombardment that was still hitting the Indian positions. The lingering dust clouds from the bombardment were not sufficient to block out the movement of such a large infantry force behind it. There seemed to be some rare lack of coordination among the Chinese side, because their artillery was still dropping explosive rounds rather than the smoke rounds that were now necessary to mask the Chinese movements. There was no explaining it, and to be sure, Lt-Colonel Baweja did not care. He already had his radioman next to him and the headset for the radio in his hands. It was time for the Indian artillery boys to jump into the chaos...

“ZULU Leader, I have guests at grid three-four-Charlie...relative. Suggest you bring in the sweets. Over.â€

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Postby Sanku » 27 Dec 2007 10:58

more please.....

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Postby SGupta » 03 Jan 2008 08:12

Great job Vivek .... wonderful scenario.

Cheers,
Sanjay

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Postby Ankit Desai » 14 Jan 2008 08:11

I thought this may add some spice .

China doesn't want entire Arunachal, just Tawang

They just want to get it without any effort ... Like this, Tawang is mine, give me back.

Ankit

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 14 Jan 2008 09:22

I thought this may add some spice .

China doesn't want entire Arunachal, just Tawang


So...the strategic model that I was running for this scenario has proven accurate on this account. This feels nice. :)

Wonder what else will be proven to be true in the future... :wink:

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Postby Malay » 14 Jan 2008 16:10

Vivek, i thought you said no more AWOL till this scenario is completed...Your on a bunk again!

Common man, keep on posting.Some of us are addicted to your scenario you know...!

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Postby Sanku » 14 Jan 2008 16:16

Malay wrote:Vivek, i thought you said no more AWOL till this scenario is completed...Your on a bunk again!

Common man, keep on posting.Some of us are addicted to your scenario you know...!


True... and enuff gloating on past predictions Vivek we are all waiting for the future.

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Postby Sudhanshu » 14 Jan 2008 23:17

Vivek, now in that true spirit, please post the next installment as soon as possible.
May be you are writing history. Ironically in advance.

:) You and Shankar.. should report to this thread without any further delay!! That is the only warning for you guys. Otherwise, get ready to bear the wrath of all registered and thousands unregistered BRFites.


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