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Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part X

Shankar
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Postby Shankar » 05 Apr 2008 14:57

SOME WHERE IN SOUTHERN PACIFIC –BLUE RAY FLIGHT 12 XMIG 29K -1227 HRS

- blue ray lead –tower – vixen flight need immediate assistance –over
- copy that tower – initiating intercept now –over
- blue ray flight –blue lead- start climb out on my command -5 4 3 2 1 now

Dilip scanned the two main multifunctional displays .The port side was configured to moving map display which he changed to air search mode .The starboard side panel was showing the weapon status and availability which he changed to engine parameters and fuel status all within 3 seconds and then pressed the mini throttle advance switch till engine revolutions touched maximum and thrust level was 185% full military power. The digital indicated air speed indicator quickly started changing and was soon crossing 1400 km/hr mark as he slowly pulled on the stick all the way inwards ,pitching the nose up in a vertical 90 degree power climb .The vertical speed display moved in a blur and then stabilized at 17000 meters per minute as the fulcrum rocketed upwards .the sky changed color from light blue to deep indigo as he reached 42000 ft and started leveling off .As he pushed the stick forward to its normal centre position and eased back on power to 90% military power level and took a long breadth as the circulation started returning to normal . Even with 100% pure oxygen in the mask he still had difficulty in breathing for a few seconds after that explosive climb out but at least he had the required altitude and more or less in the position where he wanted his flight to be to commence the attack on PLAAF flankers .The other fulcrums started leveling out and formed up on him –waiting for the command to start killing and –be killed

Down below and approximately 127 kms to north east was the PLAAF flanker group split into three groups totaling 10 in number as of now . Two of the flankers between sea level and 5000 ft was engaging the harriers but not very successful after the initial onslaught because the harriers were using their thrust vectoring ability to stay alive and keep the flankers busy but for how long that was the question. Almost due east and about the same distance away were the large PLAN surface fleet making full speed approach to Virat carrier group as Dilip could make out from their wake and arrow straight approach .Obviously they were trying to get into a missile launch position on Virat under the confusion of air battle progressing overhead . He was not carrying any anti ship missile this mission and Dilip wished he was. But these are not his decisions as he keyed in to the tactical surface net

-tower –blue ray lead – we confirm PLAN surface fleet fast approaching your position –speed 30 plus knots- distance from my position 126.5 km- 4 destroyers in regular box formation in lead – confirm sovermany class – 6 frigates Luhu class in outer screen – transmitting exact radar co ordinates over link
-Thanks blue ray lead – data received good – stay away from PLAN ships –repeat stay away from PLAN ships –engage flankers now
- Copy that tower – engaging now –over
-Blue ray flight –blue ray lead – activate data link for target priority and allotment –confirm when ready for transmission
The confirmations came in almost instantly and the mission computer on board lead fulcrum passed on the target data to individual aircraft of the flight so that there is no duplication of effort in the heat of the battle.

One by one the MIg 29K s peeled off the tight formation in pairs and headed for the PLAAF flankers on full after burners ,taking care to stay away from the PLAN surface fleet and that was not just for the surface to air missile load they carried .

INS VIRAT – SOME WHERE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC-1230 HRS


Deep in the bowels of the ageing carrier the mood was somber and revenge was upper most in every mind. The five lost harriers were almost 1/3 of the entire beefed up air complement of the ship and practically irreplaceable. If the Mig 29K s have arrived 15 minutes earlier on scene this might have been avoided but then know one knew the reason for the delay of launch of the fulcrums and for the moment all that mattered was the 10 PLAAF flankers still in air closing in fast for a air launched anti ship strike and the PLAN surface fleet approaching from west at full speed .It was time to act tough and act tough fast.

Captain Singhania confirmed the latest position data on the PLAN fleet transmitted by the Mig 29k s were fed correctly into the attack computer and ready to be down loaded into missile guidance system, and picked up the encrypted inter ship phone to two of the Rajput class escorts about 5 kms to the east and west of the carrier
- tower 2 and tower 3 –tower one – I have a mission class A for you two
- tower 2 – tower 2 ready to receive
- tower 3 –tower 1 ready to receive
Captain Singhania nodded to his first officer and he punched the ENTER button on the missile data transfer console .It took less than 5 seconds for the high bandwidth data transfer link to transfer the target data ,priority and recommended strike profile of individual missiles to be transferred to the launch platforms weapons console .

INS RANVIJAY – SOME WHERE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC -1232 HRS

The vertical launch modules of Brahomos missiles are unimpressive to look at . An array of rectangular boxes with spring loaded top covers and a continuous dry nitrogen gas purge to keep it free from sea water .At the base the data cables and ignition cables are plugged in with standard MIL grade connectors.

The target data received from Virat and originally sourced by the Blue ray flight lead was verified for anomaly and found acceptable before being fed to the 25 mm x 45 mm guidance chip located at the base of nose cone of the missile .A small green neon indicator light came alive outside the launch canister confirming the missiles are now ready for launch and the sailors removed the nitrogen purge connections and once again checked the area for loose items which can be fatal during launch
-clear deck for missile launch and report
One by one all stations confirmed clear of launch area

Lt Commander Manjit checked the flat screen display which showed the pre launch health of all the 8 missiles to be used in the first launch. Each ship had a specific missile assigned. In the adjacent console his colleague once again checked the air space around the missiles projected flight path –with more than 16 friendly air craft in the vicinity one cannot be too careful .
- captain – weapons -ready to launch BRAHMOS - launch sequence 2 at a time with 3 minutes separation – request permission to launch
- copy that weapons – confirm area clear of blue air traffic
- confirm that captain –are clear of blues
- weapons initiate launch procedure –you are weapons free –launch code is PEACE DRAGON MUMBAI 911 –OVER

Manjit pressed the launch button on the key pad as the self diagnostic system of the brahmos missiles quickly scanned itself and the “enter authentication codeâ€

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Postby Shankar » 05 Apr 2008 18:24

RED DRAGON FLIGHT-12 X SU-27 APPROACHING VIRAT CARRIER GROUPD –CENTRAL PACIFIC – 1220 HRS – SOME WHERE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC -1230 HRS.

Lt Commander Anatoly was not happy the way the air battle was progressing .He has already lost two of his prized and almost irreplaceable flankers in a senseless dog fight but then no one could anticipate the accuracy of the derby missile or for that matter the bravery of sea harrier pilot who even knowing the absolute superiority of flankers in all aspects of air combat,still challenged them and fought on doggedly ,taking horrendous losses .But now things were getting nasty . All control over the battle was lost and each aircraft was trying to get its own score but not succeeding as the sea harriers deftly flew circles around the heavier flankers in match or turning tighter and tighter circles at slow speed with very clever use of their thrust vectoring Olympus engine.

But then he saw the anti ship missiles being launched in salvos from the kashin class destroyers acting as escort to the small carrier. And before his unbelieving eyes he saw the awesome destructive power of brahmos missiles and what it did to the PLAN strike fleet in a matter of minutes .What was a force to reckon with was now nothing more than hunks of burning metal settling to ocean floor .

And then his radar warning receiver screeched to life .

T
he Phazotron Zhuk-ME capable of tracking ten targets to a maximum range of 245km is currently being developed for Indian Navy MiG-29Ks. As compared to its Fulcrum-D namesake, the MiG-29K (izdeliye 9.41) has an avionics fit which is at least 80% new and has considerable commonality with the production-standard MiG-29SMT (izdeliye 9.1 developed both for the home market and for export. In accordance with the Indian Navy's wishes the MiG-29K/KUB will feature some avionics items of Indian and French origin. The PrNK-29K and PrNK-29KUB navigation/ attack suites developed for the MiG-29K and MiG-29KUB respectively permit navigation and engagement of aerial and ground/surface targets throughout the aircraft's designated combat envelope, singly or as part of a group, regardless of whether the fighter operates from the carrier or from a shore base. Both versions of the suite have been developed by the RPKB Federal Research & Production Centre which is conjunction with the IDK-42 built-in test equipment system (informatsionno-diagnos-tlcheskiy kompleks). Radar-absorbing material (RAM) coatings will reduce the fighter's RCS by a factor of 4 to 5 as compared to the standard MiG-29. The RD-33MKwhich is due to enter production at the Moscow Machinery Enterprise named after V. V. Chernyshov, is a derivative of the production RD-33 Srs 3 which has been powering the MIG-29SE and the MiG-29SMT since 1995. It incorporates changes based on the experience gained with the RD-33K engine that powered the original MiG-29K and the MiG-29M; apart from the addition of full authority digital engine control (FADEC), the RD-33MK features revisions to the low-pressure and high-pressure compressors, the combustion chamber and the HP and LP turbines. This increased the mass flow by 6.5% and the turbine temperature by 40°K. The overall effect of these changes was to increase the thrust in full afterburner by 8% to 9,000 kgp (19,840 Ibst) and at full military power by 1% to 5,400 kgp (11,905 Ibst). The use ol a so-called smokeless combustion chamber has helped to address a perennial problem - the RD-33's high smoke signature which can be seen for miles, ruining stealth.


The fully retractable IFR probe is tipped with a versatile adapter which is compatible with both Russian and Western refueling drogues. Fitting four under wing drop tanks and a PAZ-1MK hose drum unit turns the MiG-29K/KUB into a 'buddy' refueling tanker able to refuel other shipboard fighters. The mode as compared, to single-seat competitors. Both versions retain the basic Fulcrum's excellent air combat capabilities. If a 'buddy' refueling pod is fitted, the MiG-29K and MIG-29KUB can refuel probe-equipped sister aircraft, extending their range and endurance.

The information flashed through his mind even as he clicked on the radio switch to transmit and dived for the ocean floor

- dragon flight –dragon lead –bandits inbound – Indian fulcrums – 10 o clock –engage


The four flankers on top cover duty engaged full after burner and turned in for combat at the unseen mig 29k coming down from the sun. Their wings winking as the first salvo of R-77 ER s came in for the kill forcing the flankers dive for cover into ocean floor, all the while loosing energy and more importantly loosing valuable fuel. .

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Postby disha » 05 Apr 2008 23:02

Wow!!! Enjoyed reading it. Shankar you are getting better by the post! :)

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Postby Santosh » 06 Apr 2008 00:57

Can't wait to read the final outcome of the battle. Amazing! My guess is the PLAAF Su group is overwhelmed numerically and might be outgunned by Mig29s/Harriers ..

Question - the PLAN fleet could have engaged the Viraat CBG. Do they not have anything in the range/class of Brahmos?

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Postby Nitesh » 06 Apr 2008 07:19

Sir, BrahMos is in class of its own, whereas chinese destroyers were loaded with Moskit. BrahMoas has range of 290km (limited due to MTCR regime). Well we dont know the exact range....... :)

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Postby Shankar » 06 Apr 2008 13:47

SOME WHERE IN SOUTHERN PACIFIC –BLUE RAY FLIGHT 12 XMIG 29K -1231 HRS

The Indian navy fulcrums had an advantage which their Chinese flanker counterparts did not have –hundreds of hours of exercise against IAF Su-30s over land and more importantly over ocean over the entire range of combat envelopes .They knew the out of the world potential of Su -30s in not just BVR region but also in WVR and slow speed close combat where the turn rate matters and so does the size of the aircraft. They also knew the fuel consumption rate of the flankers in this kind of fuel guzzling fight at low altitude where situational awareness can come only from avionics calibrated and designed specifically for that purpose. .

Dilip knew the way to kill the formidable flankers now facing him is time in combat and fighting them close where without the thrust vectoring ability of the MKI s the PLAAF flankers while not outgunned will be flying on fumes in a matter of minutes and then it will a battle he looked for .

-blue ray flight –blue lead – execute attack plan orange vector –repeat orange vector

The acknowledgements came in quickly .What it meant in practical terms is the fulcrums will from now on try to engage at lowest possible altitude .at lowest possible speed and with guns and heat seeking missiles rather than try for comparatively safer BVR shots with R-77/27 s

RED DRAGON FLIGHT-10X SU-27 APPROACHING VIRAT CARRIER GROUPD –CENTRAL PACIFIC – 1232RS – SOME WHERE IN CENTRAL PACIFIC

Lt Commander Anatoly leveled out at 200 ft over sea level and put his aircraft in a sharp turning climb leaving behind a cloud of chaff. He was not unduly worried about the Indian Mig 29 s but he was seriously worried about the effect of this engagement on his fuel status .As of now he had about 6 minutes of fuel left and there was no refueling tanker in position . Around him all the other Su 27s were forming up for the counter attack but the Indian salvo has taken its toll. 2 flankers have gone down cleanly and third was belching black smoke and then the pilot ejected as that too went on short downward spiral to the waves breaking up on contact.

And that turned the situation in favor of Indians. Now there was 5 sea harriers and 12 Mig 29k S against 7 Su 27s all at low altitude of less than 5000 ft from ocean top.Antoly turned towards the nearest Mig 29k and armed up one of the R-77 for a close head in shot . Lt Commander Anatoly




SOME WHERE IN SOUTHERN PACIFIC –BLUE RAY FLIGHT 12 XMIG 29K -1232HRS

Dilip saw the flanker turning and pitching up for a missile launch even as he screamed in towards the fast turning flanker. He had know idea it was the Chinese commanders flight ,in fact he did not care a damn at that point of time, as he closed in nearly 2000 km/hour ,all he knew the turning flanker represented mortal danger and he acted in pure reflex from memories drilled into his brain from hours of similar dog fights over Arabian sea .The distance to target was less than 2 kms and there was simply no time for even a R-73 shot ,the missile may not arm itself in the remaining distance to target.As his left arm flashed upwards to pull in the lever activating the air brake ,his thumb flicked open the rough plastic cover over the firing button ,the gun ready status came on immediately and he pressed the trigger twice each less than a second as the cross hairs settled on the large twin tailed shape of the PLAAF Su 27 .

The line of tracers sailed across the distance lazily almost before hitting flankers cockpit, killing the pilot immediately even before they reached the aft fuel tank which was mostly empty by now .The ATF vapor fist absorbed the heat of the incoming shells for a fraction of a second and then ignited in the closed confines of the tank ripping open the thin aluminum shell and the aircraft that carried it, into a shower of red hot metal and burning gas.

One gone six more two go, though commander Dilip as he pulled the stick in and increases power to 100% military power .One of the mig 29khas gone down already most likely slow to recover from the power dive and taken in by a heat seeker from the target su-27 as he flashed past and trying to recover . The combat radar plot was chaotic at best and the two Ka-31 s were trying to sort out the mess as the sea harriers to joined the battle eager for revenge.

-blue ray lead –blue ray 4- flanker 5 o clock – 175 –on intercept vector came the voice over radio
-copy that blue ray 4 – engaging now

One of the flankers has obviously managed to get rid of his mig 29k tail and climbing for him .That was bad news thought Dilip as pitched the nose down and at the same time engaged full after burner, clicking on a few flares and chaff bundles just for insurance .The flanker flashed past him guns blazing and exposing the sweet hot twin tail pipes to his R-73.The head phone growled and Dilip the fire button not even bothering to wait for a positive lock confirmation on the head up display. The R-73 leaped off the twin launching rail on starboard wing tip and flew in true and straight into the port engine exhaust all in one smooth move .The climbing flanker disintegrated in mid air and the residual fuel escaped in a white mist before igniting to make a perfect fireball against the backdrop of a blue sky .

- blue ray lead- blue ray 6 – I am hit –ejecting ,came in the voice of the distressed pilot .a young lt commander just qualified on Mig 29k and the stress of first engagement must have made him make a mistake thought as below him the 36k ejection seat rocketed up and the parachute opened nice and clear .

- tower –blue ray 3 –splash one flanker –confirm please ,came in the excited voice of his wingman as he made his first ever combat kill

- Blue ray 3 –tower –confirm your kill –good work.

And then the good news started coming in torrents as the Chinese pilots out numbered ,out fuelled and most importantly out maneuvered dropped of the sky one at time mostly by close in r-73 shots and only one more went to the sea harriers.

The first naval air battle of the pacific in more than 60 years came to a close with total annihilation of the PLAAF force but the victory cam at a heavy price .6 harriers and two Mig 29Ks were lost in the intense battle lasting less than 15 minutes .

And then there was still some work to be done .As the Mig 29 pilots broke off engagement and headed back to their carrier the second wave of sea harriers took off this time loaded with sea eagle anti ship missiles. Their target the remaining ships of the PLAN strike fleet now busy picking up the dead from the ocean.

The sea harriers flew in low and fast, the threat of SAM being considerably reduced and launched their missiles exactly 75 kms from the damaged frigates .As the first flight moved out of launch zone the second flight came in and targeted the fleet oilers ,who at that point was not having any defense worth naming .

But then Indian navy was in no mood to forgive and forget

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Postby ksmahesh » 06 Apr 2008 14:58

Ah ha. What a great ending to the epic battle. Sad for the losses :( of own pilots/aircrafts.

Over all we lost
2 Su30 MKIs
2 Mig29 Ks
6 Sea Harriers

But over all we managed to save the CBG :) and that will matter most in the battle for Andaman.

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Postby gopal.suri » 06 Apr 2008 14:58

Wah! Wah! Please post the reaction of the the naval head of the jaundice colored middle earth wormins.

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Postby kaangeya » 06 Apr 2008 19:23

Anyone care to contrast this air-sea battle with the one described in Red Storm Rising? By no means is the output of a mediocre airport novel hack in contention. But purely from technical merit, how do the scenarios compare?

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Postby pradeepe » 07 Apr 2008 05:19

Bravo Shankar. Great writing...

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Postby Babui » 07 Apr 2008 05:37

Shankar - great writing!! allus nice to see the Chinis getting their backside in a sling - even if its fiction :D

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Postby Santosh » 07 Apr 2008 10:17

Wouldn't the Mig29's be better off using the BVR weapons before getting into dogfight. Might have saved a couple Harriers by diverting the Su attention.

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Postby Sudhanshu » 07 Apr 2008 11:07

:) I just wonder, all those ejected Pilots will be picked up by Indian SAR helicopters, even the Chinese Pilots too. What a shame for them. They might be in water together with their Indian counterpart. It would be kind of funny scene.

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Postby Dilbu » 07 Apr 2008 12:42

Wow! Fantastic writing Shankar saar.. Can't wait for more.

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Postby niran » 07 Apr 2008 12:46

Sudhanshu wrote::) I just wonder, all those ejected Pilots will be picked up by Indian SAR helicopters, even the Chinese Pilots too. What a shame for them. They might be in water together with their Indian counterpart. It would be kind of funny scene.


Chinkil pilots will be "POWs" Indians will come back to a Heroes welcome.

Great write Shanker da. in a span of 15 min. chinkil navy and air force got
real spanking. "Give them hell"

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Postby Sudhanshu » 10 Apr 2008 05:36

:) Anyone home.. anyone, Shankar or Vivek.

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Postby Igorr » 10 Apr 2008 10:19

Yes, I'm agree with the community: some scene of rescue operation for help of brave Indian pilots (sailors if need in the fufture battle) and 'humanity display' towards prostrate enemy would never hamper to the story.

Also where is Indian long range ships-subs-hunting aviation? :D
Image

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Postby k prasad » 10 Apr 2008 20:59

4 days without a new post.... severe withdrawal symptoms affecting BRF members.... only Doctors Shankar and Vivek have the cure...

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The Indian military Scenario: Sino- Indain conflict

Postby deovratsingh » 11 Apr 2008 02:46

It seems like I woke up from a nice dream. INS accomplished everything with negligible losses and won spectacular victory against an adversary far more powerful (like SA win over India in last match).

I guess reality would be very different( give sad state of IAF and INS) and may fold something like this-

1. The PLAF had attacked whole North-Eastern sector, relentlessly and non stop. Most of the bases have come under heavy cruise missile and ballistic missile attacks with conventional war heads. These attacks have almost wiped out the base and runways have been made unsable. The PLAF had made extensive use of SU 27s and MKKs. Although PLAF have suffered heavy losses due to Indian defenses with AKASH SAMs and LRSAMs, air to air battles with SU 30 MKIs, LCAs, Upgraded Mirage 2000s, and MIG 29s, in this process. However the PLAF had more strategic depth and numbers and were able to redeploy their Air resources against IAF from their Eastern Borders facing Taiwan. This way they have been able to keep 2:1 numerical superiority over IAF and now they have complete control of skies. At this point the IAF is mounting only defnsive sorties in defence of its bases and major cities only. This has left Indian armored, infantry and troops vulnerable to open on slaught by PLAF bombers. The PLA (army) is enjoying superior firepower with long ranged 155 mm artilleries and recently developed, but not very accurate, 150-200 KM ranged MLRS. Now Indian leaders are realizing how much heavy price, the nation is going to pay, because of their careless approach for modernization of Indian armed forces and dirty, nasty party politics( Bofors case), which resulted in svere depletion of 155 mm Howitzers/Bofors. At this point in battle whole Indian army was down to only100 pieces only,as opposed to 800 pieces deployed by Chinese. The Indian leaders knew the people and Indian armed forces would never forgive them for this sin and leving the country undefended. However this is not first time which happened.

2. IAF is having tough time in countering the PLAF due to limited tankers, AWACS and SU30 MKIs. MRCA has been received but is only available in 2 squadrons (12 in each). On request of Chinese, PAKI's have started aggressive maneuvers in western sectors and mobilized troops in Kashmir in support of Chinese; hence IAF does not want to leave western sectors unprotected. Although IAF had better trained pilots and better aircrafts vs. PLAF, however they were seriously out numbered by factor of 3:1; to counter both PAKIs and PLAF.

3. At the onset of conflict Chinese had planned to take out both small Indian aircraft carriers. They knew very well, INS sea denial strategy. They did not want to leave these carriers to hinder their shipping lanes and INS to stop their oil tankers coming from Persian Gulf. Hence they sent their two Nuclear and 3 Kilo class Submarines to take out Vikramaditya well ahead of time. Their position was well known to PLAN from satellite pictures. Vikramaditya was taken out by salvo fire of 2 Torpedos from each submarines from 5 different directions. This was a surprise ambush from PLAN, which they wanted to make it successful at any cost. The INS did not anticipate and plan for this concentrated salvo fire of torpedoes. The Vikramaditya sank with all its 16 MIG 29 K fighters with a loss of two PLANs kilo class submarines, as one of the Virrats'Augusta anti submarine helicopter was in air and was able to get the two slow submarines with its torpedoes in that fight. The helicopter sank when it ran out of fuel.

4. Chinese had put tremendous pressures on Philippines, Indonesian and Singapore Govts , not to co-operate with Indian forces. They had issued warnings out right in advance to all the neighboring countries " Either you are with us or against us. Any country giving help to Indian forces would risk being attacked and would be considered a strategic targets.â€

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Postby Sudhanshu » 11 Apr 2008 04:22

:) DSingh... you are in class with Vivek and Shankar.
Nice job man. I personally appreciate that... it's an eye opener.

:) But, I won't like vivek and shankar get way too much inspired by this. Just a tad would work.

----------------

Well, the fact is there are many probabilities in a war, based on many factors. The positive point, who is more informed and who acts first. In Shankar Scenario we acted first (element of surprise), hence we had advantage. But, your story is just another aspect. Which should not be ignored. Hope our netas log might be reading these forums.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 11 Apr 2008 08:25

THE JUNGLES OF MYANMAR
1150 IST FRIDAY


Their identity was unclear. The four Burmese T-72s were moving westwards towards the town of Tamu from the east leading a larger convoy of trucks and other soft-skinned vehicles. Tamu itself was by now all but deserted, being just across the border with Manipur. There were no Loyalist or Rebel factions within the town itself, but within the last hour this convoy had been seen moving eastwards to the town, possibly bringing in a garrison force. And that was what was making the Indian commanders across the border highly suspicious.

An arrangement had been made with the Loyalist Commanders at Singkaling-Hkamti to tell whatever units that were still under their control to move away from the border once the 23RD Infantry Division of the Indian Army and elements of the 1ST Armoured Division began to move across. To that effect all Loyalist forces had been moving away all the way to the western banks of Chindwin River during the last day. This convoy was moving in an opposite direction altogether...

“Roger. I have visual...â€
Last edited by vivek_ahuja on 12 Apr 2008 09:04, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: The Indian military Scenario: Sino- Indain conflict

Postby SGupta » 11 Apr 2008 08:47

deovratsingh wrote:
I hope I didn’t offend any one’s sentiment. It’s just an example of worst case scenario, that is all.



Didn't hurt my sentiments. I don't see what you are describing as a worst case scenario, but a likely scenario. :(

I also think given enough time the impact of pressure from the US and Russia on China may also become limited.

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Alternate History

Postby Sanjay M » 11 Apr 2008 09:07

In 1994, a suspense movie called 'Fatherland' was released, presenting an alternate history of World War 2 and its aftermath:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2QPDoHpxsnU

It's interesting - what alternate history scenarios could one think of for India?

I could think of any number of interesting branch-points in Indian history, or world history, which could have dramatically changed India's situation.

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Postby MN Kumar » 11 Apr 2008 09:46

DSingh its nice to be on a more realistic side but I didnt understand why India wont use its Surface to Surface missile much like China in an allout war. Think of Agni1's and Prithvi's raining down on Chinese positions and Airfields within reach with conventional payloads.

Also dont think we will sitback and do nothing untill our forces in the Andaman command get annihilated. If Myanmar is with the Chinese they will be made known that they will be treated as equal enemies like their chinese brothers.

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Postby ajit.d » 11 Apr 2008 10:14

MN Kumar wrote:DSingh its nice to be on a more realistic side but I didnt understand why India wont use its Surface to Surface missile much like China in an allout war. Think of Agni1's and Prithvi's raining down on Chinese positions and Airfields within reach with conventional payloads.

Also dont think we will sitback and do nothing untill our forces in the Andaman command get annihilated. If Myanmar is with the Chinese they will be made known that they will be treated as equal enemies like their chinese brothers.


Kumar,
In order for the missiles to rain and for us to threaten Myanmar, we need the capacity in terms of sheer numbers. That was the gist of DSingh's post - we dont have the numbers to match the chinese, and there is only so much difference that qualitative edge can make. We can claim superior kill ratio and operational effeciency - but at the end of the day, superior numbers will overwhelm us.

And given the way things are nw, i doubt if we would even be allowed to threaten chinese with nukes... what with the commies at center... hmmmm...

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Postby Anurag » 11 Apr 2008 11:23

Thanks deovratsingh for your insightful comments. As someone who comes from a military background, your comments do NOT come as a surprise. It is very feasible considering India's diplomatic potential and just the common persona reflected in the continent. India has never been aggressive, I wish that was not the case. After reading your comments, I actually got very concerned for the the first time. I guess i was living off vapour!!! I should have known!!!

USELESS!!! I'm pi$$ed!!!

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Postby Hari Sud » 12 Apr 2008 04:11

China is incapable of mounting a type of attack which "deovratsingh" has described. They do not have the muscle to attack everything in north east and in depth.

They have very limited number of high end aircraft or short and intermediate range accurate missile to blow up runways, storage depots and other infrastructure in India. At 7000 feet average elevation of Tibet their aircrafts cannot take off with full complement of ordnance to do the major job which deovratsingh describes. Number of high end aircraft available in Tibet by the Chinese forces is practically nil. They have to withdraw these fighters from opposite Taiwan. That will take time and they may still loose the battle because pilots are unfamiliar with Indian tactics and training. Attacking aircraft have to know a lot about the enemy than the defenders. The defenders have SAM batteries to help them.

"deovratsingh" scenario is as much a fiction as Shankar's scenario of complete victory at sea as is progressing now.

I am inclined to believe Vivek Ahuja's scenario (when he was writing), he splits losses 50-50 between India & China in north east, in Ladakh and elsewhere.

But it makes Indian BR reader feel good when the other side looses. Usually the battle proceed with equal amount of losses. It is when one side makes a tactical error and then only the battle is lost. Complete overwhelmimg victories are stuff of fiction.

Hari Sud

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Postby Nitesh » 12 Apr 2008 06:35

Hari sir

I don't agree with you that shankar's words are of fiction: there are tactical errors made by chinese in his scenario like:

1. They wanted to attack Vikramaditya with there kilos those got sunk by our great captain Iyer's Akula:)

2. They wanted to attack virat on the belief that they can overwhelm her defenses with simultaneous attack on sea and air, they where having no idea about BrahMos and there acuracy.

3. They thought that Phillipines will not allow India to deploy her forces from there bases, that costed them there A-50, and tankers, also is responsible for there air fleet destruction. (Here is KS-172 which they were not aware of)

4. They should have informed captain Lee about one Akula (of great captain Raina) got spotted near yulin base, that costed them there Heavy destroyer.

Well this is debatable that whether chinese can do so many mistakes, but the point here is that they were not aware of India's defensive capabilities. (Cos of usual veil of secrecy around Indian capability or simply chankian style of confusion created by Indians).

But I urge our writers to include indian made weapons like LCA's ATV etc. so we can learn about there capabilities too. Little bit of fiction should be welcome;)

Gurus pl correct me if I am wrong.

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Apr 2008 08:40


THE JUNGLES OF MYANMAR
1220 IST FRIDAY


At over two hundred kilometres an hour speed, the trees below were nothing more than fleeting green canopies that characterized the Burmese landscape. But then again the Mi-35 was all about high speeds. Its wings produced lift to help direct more vertical thrust forward. Its fuselage was shaped to reduce drag unlike its other contemporaries and had its main rotor tilted to a side to allow fuselage firing stabilization at high speeds. At altitudes that basically trimmed the tree tops, the ride was exhilarating to the layman, but common to its crew. What was exhilarating for the crews of the four Mi-35s of Hotel-Romeo Flight was the current high speed engagement that had just begun east of the town of Tamu...

“H-Tee-One to all H-Tee-Units. Prioritize hostile triple-A systems. Overâ€

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 12 Apr 2008 09:39

THE SKIES ABOVE NAGPUR A.F.B
INDIA
1320 IST FRIDAY


“So what’s going on in Laddakh?â€

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Postby k prasad » 12 Apr 2008 11:14

Op Shadow Warrior seems a bit too obvious, don't you think...

The Nazi's used the same poetic naming for their projects and ops, which actually ended up giving the Allies valuable clues about their nature. Most successful of these was when a radar scientist actually accurately guessed the nature of the radar system from the project name (I think it was Cyclops or something else - I dont remember).

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Postby ticky » 12 Apr 2008 18:34

Cyclops? I think it was called Freya, after the nordic goddess of prophesy

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Postby k prasad » 12 Apr 2008 21:49

ticky wrote:Cyclops? I think it was called Freya, after the nordic goddess of prophesy


Found it. Its the "Wotan"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Codename
Ewen Montagu, a British Naval intelligence officer, disclosed that during World War II, Nazi Germany habitually used ad hoc code names as nicknames which frequently openly revealed or strongly hinted at their content or function.
....
....
Wotan (one-eyed God) — Based on nothing more than this and the knowledge it was a radar system, R.V. Jones, a British scientist working for Air Intelligence of the British Air Ministry and SIS assumed that it used a single beam and from that determined the system it would have to use. His shrewd assessment was exactly correct. A counter-system was quickly created which made Wotan useless.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_the_Beams#Y-Ger.C3.A4t

As the British slowly gained the upper hand in the Battle of the Beams, they started considering what the next German system would entail. Since Germany's current approaches had been rendered useless, an entirely new system would have to be developed. It was thought that if the British could defeat this new system very quickly, the Germans would abandon their attempts entirely.

British monitors soon started receiving intelligence intercepts referring to a new device known as Y-Gerät, which was also sometimes referred to as Wotan. R V Jones had already concluded the Germans used code names which were too descriptive. He asked a specialist in German language and literature at Bletchley Park about the word Wotan. The specialist realised Wotan, the name of a one-eyed god, might be a single beam navigation system.[1] Jones agreed and knew it would have to be based on a distance-measurement system.[2] He also concluded it might well work on the system described by a German well-wisher in Norway, who had passed a large amount of information in what is now known as the Oslo Report.[3]


I just hope we aren't doing the same damn thing.... for eg, Shadow Warrior is probably a giveaway, especially if the chinese get intel that it will be on the Tibet front. Our scientists sure like mythological names, and poetic ones too... but I guess sometimes, drab and dull is a good thing.

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Postby KiranM » 12 Apr 2008 23:27

Well if you look like that we can derive meaning from the drab names given to our weapon systems.

For example, Tejas can refer to the flash of 'enlightenment' received by the enemy when bombs rain down on them.

:twisted:

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 13 Apr 2008 00:49

THE WESTERN OUTSKIRTS OF TAMU
MYANMAR
1345 IST FRIDAY


The convoy had moved at speeds no greater than ten kilometres an hour and as such then it had taken the lead tanks to reach the westernmost outskirts of Tamu within half an hour after crossing the border. But that was where they now waited for the supporting infantry moving via helicopters and BMP-2s to deploy on the flanks of the main axis as they moved into the urban environment. This was not an expected feature of the Indian Army’s movement, but events had dictated otherwise. No battle plan survives first contact with the enemy, and as it had been planned to move through towns such as Tamu unopposed by enemy forces, that idea had flown out of the window for Chauvan’s men an hour ago.

Chauvan himself was not pleased with the unexpected delays. As his AXE troop transport convoy turned the final bend in the road and suddenly joined the assembling friendly forces in the outskirts of the town, he had a distinct frown on his face that told others to back off. He spotted Major Gupta standing with some other officers behind one of the waiting T-72s. His vehicle stopped on his orders and he picked up his rifle and stepped out of the vehicle into the blazing afternoon sun and humidity that was taking its toll on the physical strength on everybody. Gupta left his small entourage to meet up with the Lt-Colonel stomping his way...

“How are things going?â€

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Postby vivek_ahuja » 13 Apr 2008 02:03

BOEING B-737 BBJ (CALL SIGN: PATRIOT EAGLE)
NAGPUR A.F.B.
1425 IST FRIDAY


“So what are they staging from there?â€

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Postby disha » 13 Apr 2008 02:52

Vivek - you are back - and with vengeance!

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Conclusion- The WORST CASE SCENARIO

Postby deovratsingh » 13 Apr 2008 07:58

Dear BR Fites:

I have enjoyed very much writings of Vivek Ahuja, the conflict scenarios, whch are well researched, meticulous and detailed to the nth dgree of the roads and maps. I have equally enjoyed the Shankar's thread in which he had created a very positive and optimistic carrier confrontations with PLAN's assets, in which Chinese were defeated by inferior INS carriers with sheer bravery and superior INS tactics. That would be the best case scenario.

However I have written a hypothetical worst case scenario, which led to sinking of both Indian carriers and led to nuclear stand off between India, and China+ Pakistan.

I am going to post the Final and Part II of Sino-Indian Conflict 2012: The worst case scenario. I scenario is based on the perception of realtive strength and weaknesses of India vis a vis Chinese and PAKis, which in my view is not going to change much even with planned upgrades of MIG 29s, and Mirage 2000 s; Until MRCAs and advanced LCAs with AESAs get inducted in sizable numbers. The aftermath scenario is hypothetical which might unfold, if the things go as they have been depicted.

This is in no way to indicate conclusion of the all the Sino-Indian conflict- 2012, going on at multiple fronts. My conclusion of the scenario is based upon if the things happen, the way they have been depicted.

By the way I do not have the Crystal Ball yet.

Regards,

DSingh.

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Sino Indian CONFLICT-2012= Part II FInal conclusion

Postby deovratsingh » 13 Apr 2008 08:01

CONCLUSION:-SINO-INDAIN Conflict- 2012 – The worst Case Scenario

SINKING OF INDIAN AIRCRAFT CARRIERS-

The PLAN had practiced well in advance how to shadow aircraft carriers and take them out. In their war games they would follow American Aircraft carriers with their silent Kilo class 636 submarines from behind, and many times would remain undetected. They were caught once in 2007, however many times they remained undetected. They utilized same tactics to get Vikramaditya. Kilo used their Wake homing Torpedoes to get Vikramaditya’s Keel. The 2nd and 3rd Kilo class, and nuclear submarines used their Torpedoes to get job done. The PLAN had option of using their Sunburn SS 21 cruise missile launched from their Han and Song class nuclear submarine to get Vikramaditya, however they had decided not to do so, as it would have revealed their position to American and Russian Spy satellites, who could have given data to Indians. In that case India would have used their 8 newly acquired MMA P8 from USA, anti submarine aircraft vectored to their position, to hunt down and sink those nuclear submarines. The Chinese planners and PLAN had factored this threat in their strategy in countering this potential threat to their SSBNs from MMA P8 s, threat; they had devised this strategy to sink Vikramaditya. The sinking of Virrat was not problem for PLAN as it was exactly where, PLAN wanted it to be. Away from Indian coast, hence out of protection of Indian SU30 MKIs, and Jaguars M. Chinese knew, once they issue warning to neighboring countries“ either you are with us or against usâ€

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Sino Indian CONFLICT-2012= Part II FInal conclusion

Postby deovratsingh » 13 Apr 2008 08:07

CONCLUSION:-SINO-INDAIN Conflict- 2012 – The worst Case Scenario

SINKING OF INDIAN AIRCRAFT CARRIERS-

The PLAN had practiced well in advance how to shadow aircraft carriers and take them out. In their war games they would follow American Aircraft carriers with their silent Kilo class 636 submarines from behind, and many times would remain undetected. They were caught once in 2007, however many times they remained undetected. They utilized same tactics to get Vikramaditya. Kilo used their Wake homing Torpedoes to get Vikramaditya’s Keel. The 2nd and 3rd Kilo class, and nuclear submarines used their Torpedoes to get job done. The PLAN had option of using their Sunburn SS 21 cruise missile launched from their Han and Song class nuclear submarine to get Vikramaditya, however they had decided not to do so, as it would have revealed their position to American and Russian Spy satellites, who could have given data to Indians. In that case India would have used their 8 newly acquired MMA P8 from USA, anti submarine aircraft vectored to their position, to hunt down and sink those nuclear submarines. The Chinese planners and PLAN had factored this threat in their strategy in countering this potential threat to their SSBNs from MMA P8 s, threat; they had devised this strategy to sink Vikramaditya. The sinking of Virrat was not problem for PLAN as it was exactly where, PLAN wanted it to be. Away from Indian coast, hence out of protection of Indian SU30 MKIs, and Jaguars M. Chinese knew, once they issue warning to neighboring countries“ either you are with us or against usâ€


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