Page 3 of 9

Posted: 09 Feb 2008 06:10
by vivek_ahuja
No hard feelings Vivek I know you are busy on your book, so take your time and come post back whenever you are done.

Thanks for understanding the problem. Nowadays my life includes sixteen hour days buried in the book scenario. Not something that I mind terribly :twisted:...but still, taking the toll on my BR time and especially the work for this thread.

Trust me though, if the book ever makes it into publication, (and there are no guarantees right at this time) the jingos on this thread are going to be very very pleased with what they get... :twisted:

Still, for a change it feels good to sit back and read Shankar's posts whenever I get a break from my work. Writing is one thing, but getting that rush after reading an already written piece of amazing work is another...

Posted: 09 Feb 2008 07:35
by mdhoat
vivek_ahuja wrote:
No hard feelings Vivek I know you are busy on your book, so take your time and come post back whenever you are done.

Thanks for understanding the problem. Nowadays my life includes sixteen hour days buried in the book scenario. Not something that I mind terribly :twisted:...but still, taking the toll on my BR time and especially the work for this thread.

Trust me though, if the book ever makes it into publication, (and there are no guarantees right at this time) the jingos on this thread are going to be very very pleased with what they get... :twisted:

Still, for a change it feels good to sit back and read Shankar's posts whenever I get a break from my work. Writing is one thing, but getting that rush after reading an already written piece of amazing work is another...

Vivek with such good understanding of Indo-China angle as reflected in your scenarios and the research you might have done for your book regarding both India and China's Logistics and future military potential and trends, it will be great if you can share some of your views in the ongoing debate between Alokgupt, Sanku and JCage in China Military Watch thread. Looking forward to some excellent contribution from you in that thread.

As a side note - Anxiously waiting for your book. Have you decided on the name yet? Best of luck for your project.

Posted: 09 Feb 2008 13:29
by Shankar

[quote]VISAKHAPATNAM: It was a momentous day for the Eastern Naval Command and also for Visakhapatnam city when TU 142, one of Indian Navy’s largest maritime reconnaissance and anti-submarine warfare aircraft, landed at the airport here on Monday.
The new 10,000-foot runway of the airport (Naval Air Station INS Dega), facilitated the landing of the “mighty birdâ€

Posted: 09 Feb 2008 17:04
by Shankar

Abdul Hafez parked into the sprawling car park adjacent to the marine terminal main security gate and waved at the security guards .As vice president in charge of shipping it was his job to see loading of mammoth tankers carrying crude and LPG went on smoothly 24x7. His position in the corporate Hierarchy allowed him to drive in his personal car with just a cursory security check while for everyone else it was mandatory to get out of the car ,show government issued photo ID and work permit ,body search and passing through x-ray body scanner under the very watch full eyes of US and Saudi troops.

In fact Hafez was not a Saudi national but an Egyptian .After graduating from Cairo college of Engineering in Chemical engineering he joined Aramco as a trainee engineer and was assigned to supervision of pipeline construction in marine terminal no 3 ,which was responsible for loading of very large crude carriers and LPG tankers of displacement more than 200 000 tons .

Hafez was born in a poor Egyptian family residing in the outskirts of port city of Alexandria. Though he was good in his studies there was no way his improvised parents could have sustained his expensive technical education in one of the best engineering colleges of Middle East. That was way back 80s when he was approached by a bearded gentle man in flowing robes and an offer was made .Thirty five years after that fateful incident his unlisted phone rang in the night and a persuasive request was made . A request Hafez could not refuse.

In May of 1933, King Abdul Aziz Bin Abdul Rahman Al-Saud, who had founded the modern Kingdom of Saudi Arabia the previous year, listened attentively as the text of a draft agreement was read to him. After a pause, he turned to his Finance Minister Abdullah Sulaiman and said: "Put your trust in God and sign."

The agreement he was referring to authorized Standard Oil of California (Socal) to explore for oil in what is now the Eastern Province of the Kingdom - the starting point for a decades-long venture that would make Saudi Arabia the largest oil producer in the world. It would also set the stage for the close Saudi-U.S. relations that would grow rapidly in coming decades and extend into all areas of cooperation. At a time when oil was abundant and cheap, with crude selling at approximately ten cents a barrel in Texas, the Saudi-Socal venture seemed less than promising. Initial studies had failed to determine the existence of oil in commercial quantities and other oil companies had demonstrated little interest in searching the vast deserts of the Kingdom in what most thought was a hopeless endeavor. Yet the recent discovery of oil in nearby Bahrain and the existence of certain geological formations pointed to the possibility of oil reserves. Neither the Saudi nor the American sides wavered in their determination to find oil. Four months after the concession agreement was signed, two American geologists arrived at Jubail on the Arabian Gulf and immediately set out into the vast interior.

From those humble beginnings arose the Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco), later named the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco). Today, Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil company, with operations spanning the globe. As was demonstrated during the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91 when it stepped in to make up for the loss of oil exports from Iraq and Kuwait, thus averting a catastrophic global energy shortage, Saudi Aramco is, as Petroleum Intelligence Weekly noted, a guarantor of the "stability and security to world oil markets that is now the hallmark of Saudi policy." t took five years of hard work under harsh conditions in the desert before the well known as Dammam Number 7 hit oil in commercial quantities. On May 1, 1939, King Abdul Aziz boarded the tanker D.G. Scofield in Ras Tanura to turn the valve that let the first barrel of Saudi oil enter a tanker for export.

Hafez joined Aramco just as the massive expansion began to take care of oil shortages arising out of first gulf war

From those humble beginnings arose the Arabian American Oil Company (Aramco), later named the Saudi Arabian Oil Company (Saudi Aramco). Today, Saudi Aramco is the world's largest oil company, with operations spanning the globe. As was demonstrated during the Gulf Crisis of 1990-91 when it stepped in to make up for the loss of oil exports from Iraq and Kuwait, thus averting a catastrophic global energy shortage, Saudi Aramco is, as Petroleum Intelligence Weekly noted, a guarantor of the "stability and security to world oil markets that is now the hallmark of Saudi policy." t took five years of hard work under harsh conditions in the desert before the well known as Dammam Number 7 hit oil in commercial quantities. On May 1, 1939, King Abdul Aziz boarded the tanker D.G. Scofield in Ras Tanura to turn the valve that let the first barrel of Saudi oil enter a tanker for export.
Though Saudi crude oil was of great strategic value to the Allied war effort during World War II, and could have been produced in relatively larger quantities, the problems associated with shipping oil during the hostilities severely limited Aramco's operations. As a result the development of Saudi oil fields progressed slowly during the war years, with production averaging 58,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the end of the war. During those years, however, Aramco dedicated its efforts to exploration and development of an infrastructure to handle future expansion. It built a refinery and a tank farm, and enlarged the marine terminal at Ras Tanura. The history of the company is one of close Saudi-U.S. cooperation and spectacular accomplishments in the face of long odds. It took five years of hard work under harsh conditions in the desert before the well known as Dammam Number 7 hit oil in commercial quantities. On May 1, 1939, King Abdul Aziz boarded the tanker D.G. Scofield in Ras Tanura to turn the valve that let the first barrel of Saudi oil enter a tanker for export.
The period immediately following the end of World War II was one of intense activity. New deposits were being discovered with increasing regularity, pumping, pipeline and treatment facilities were expanded and new offices, warehouses and housing were built. By 1949, the company's production capacity had reached 500,000 bpd. To circumvent the cost and time of shipping oil to Mediterranean ports via the circuitous route around the Arabian Peninsula and through the Suez Canal, the company built Tapline, a 31-inch pipeline that initially carried 320,000 bpd of crude from the production facilities in the Eastern Province through northern Saudi Arabia, Syria, Jordan and Lebanon to the Mediterranean. Although the pipeline was expanded in later years, the civil war in Lebanon, coupled with the construction of other pipelines across Saudi Arabia and the development of more cost-effective ultra-large oil tankers led to cessation of its use to deliver oil to the Mediterranean.
As the company and its production capacity continued to grow, so did its requirements for highly-skilled and well-trained manpower. Whereas the original geologists, engineers and technicians who helped start operations in the 1930s were primarily American, by the 1950s, the majority of company employees were Saudi Arabians. In the 1960s and 1970s, tens of thousands of Saudis were sent to training centers established in the Kingdom and thousands completed their education at universities. By the end of the latter decade, Saudis were in most of the management and technical positions in the company. The training of large numbers of Saudis to take on leadership posts in the company enabled it to expand operations across the board to meet growing demand for Saudi oil during the 1960s and 1970s. Production reached two million barrels per day by 1965 and grew to more than eight million barrels per day when the oil shortages of the mid-1970s sent demand for Saudi oil soaring.
To achieve such production rates required a mammoth undertaking that touched all areas of the Saudi oil industry. Exploration was the core of the effort. The initial search for oil in the 1930s began in the Dammam Dome. New deposits were discovered not only at Abqaiq and Qatif, but also at 'Ain Dar and Haradh, which were later determined to be part of the Ghawar field, the world's largest oil deposit, almost 160 miles long and 20 miles across at its widest point. Other fields followed, including the Arabian Gulf's Safaniya, the world's largest offshore oil field. The discovery of these and other fields required extensive field operations backed by photogeology and exploration laboratories using the latest technologies.

A network of pipelines carried crude from producing wells to the marine terminal at Ras Tanura. Originally a single pier capable of handling two small tankers, the terminal was enlarged over the years. Today, four sea islands, a series of steel-loading platforms welded together and standing in deep water, can accommodate eight super tankers. A second terminal was later built at Ju'aymah, about 15 miles north of Ras Tanura. Among the facilities built at the new terminal is a tank farm for storing oil before transfer to tankers, with 19 tanks that are the largest in the world, some capable of accommodating a 30-story building on its side. Loading lines transfer the oil to platforms mounted on piles some seven miles offshore. Between them, the Ju'aymah and Ras Tanura facilities can transfer as much as ten million barrels of oil per day onto the largest tankers afloat.
In 1975, Aramco initiated work to design, build and operate a master gas system to gather and process the natural gas produced in association with crude oil for use in the Kingdom's industrialization program. By the early 1980s, the system was producing and piping natural gas to petro- chemical plants and other industrial plants in the twin industrial cities at Jubail on the Gulf and Yanbu on the Red Sea. Using the natural gas as feed stock, the plants manufactured products that both fed other industrial operations and were exported. The natural gas collected by the master gas system was also used to generate electricity for urban and industrial use, to run desalination plants and to provide natural gas liquids for export abroad.

Posted: 09 Feb 2008 18:12
by Hari Sud

First rate writing.

Will somebody in the forum start collecting these new episodes in MS Word or .pdf format. It will be useful later.


Hari Sud

Posted: 10 Feb 2008 11:58
by Shankar

Hafez entered the ultra high security marine dispatch control centre after mandatory check for arms and explosives even if he was the vice president directly in charge of all shipping of crude from the terminals . He did not carry and AK-47 or RDX or even a laptop which is anyway prohibited inside the dispatch center, not even a CD or a DVD. Only prohibited item he was carrying was micro flash drive inside his expensive diamond
Tie pin which had a 500 mega byte flash drive built in carrying an yet to be discovered worm type virus which will slowly destroy the remote operation control main frame software over the next 7 days .making all modes of dispatch and production control impossible except resorting to a time consuming replacement and reboot of the entire computerized process control system . It will not shut down the production entirely but make the process much less efficient from all points –including security
With the absence of real time monitoring of the numerous pumping stations, for a period of 7-10 days most of the large crude oil pump control centers will have to be manually operated getting information and instruction from central dispatch control over tele- type and not phone to avoid confusion.

The crude oil of eastern Saudi Arabia emerges from about 300 producing wells in 10 different fields and flows under wellhead pressure directly to the nearest gas-oil separator plant. In its natural state crude oil is a liquid containing varying amounts of hydrogen sulfide (the substance which gives rotten eggs their characteristic aroma), natural gas and other impurities. At the highly automated gas-oil separator plants (in the trade, called GOSPs as one word) high-pressure gas is removed and piped out to gas injection facilities, which return it to the underground oil reservoirs to maintain wellhead pressures, thus postponing the day when it will be necessary to pump the wells. Low-pressure gases are separated simultaneously and converted to propane or butane at a liquefied petroleum gas plant, for enriching crude or for direct sale to exporters.
Pumped to the stabilizers, a collection of cylindrical towers and a maze of steel piping, part of the crude's remaining gas is boiled off in reducing the hydrogen sulfide content by about 95 per cent. The stabilized sweetened crude, now safer to handle because its poisonous and corrosive H2 S has been removed, is shunted to tank farms consisting of huge steel storage tanks of 180,000 to 325,000 barrels capacity each, to await final transfer to one of four destinations: the 255,000 barrel-per-day Ras Tanura Refinery; the Ras Tanura Marine Terminal for loading aboard tankers; the pump station in Dhahran which pushes crude oil through twin underwater pipelines to a refinery on the island of Bahrarain

.The dispatcher's role in this fairly straightforward process is to keep the oil moving steadily from well to gas oil separator to pump station to stabilizer to tank farm. In theory all he has to do is to order the valves turned on at the wells until the tank farms are filled, then shut the wells down until the tank farms are empty, before the time comes to repeat the cycle. He could actually do this, except that a sudden descent of empty tankers at Ras Tanura could not be supplied from a near-empty tank farm (nor wait until storage tanks were filled), and, more important, the off-again, on-again operation of such huge facilities is prohibitively expensive. The dispatcher's ideal, indeed, is to keep all his units operating with the minimum possible change.
By introducing the virus into Ras tanuras main frame –Hafez wanted to gain a window of opportunity , a window in which he planned to break into the near impregnable security cordon of Ras Tanura and bring the world to its knees as per the wish of the old man –to whom he owed his existence.
When the main frame is off line –Hafez knew the automated fire alarm and control system will also be not functioning and that means a small fire can be a big trouble

Posted: 10 Feb 2008 14:21
by Rahul M
Shankar, if you don't mind me saying it cut out the background stuff a bit.
you are getting carried away with those stuff. better devote that time to scenario.


Posted: 11 Feb 2008 08:25
by mdhoat
Rahul M wrote:Shankar, if you don't mind me saying it cut out the background stuff a bit.
you are getting carried away with those stuff. better devote that time to scenario.


I second that, Shankar with all due respect for the time and effort you put in the scenarios, it will really make sense if you can concentrate more on Indo-China military buildup (present) and start with the hostilities or the first shot being fired. Just a birds eye view of the conflict theater will be good to go rather than wasting effort on history and other stuff.

Posted: 11 Feb 2008 11:06
by Deans
I think Shankar is doing a great job so far. Perhaps all this background stuff will prevent our asking `why' and `how', later in the scenario.
Personally, I find the Oil terminal stuff fascinating - like one of those Clancy thrillers.

Posted: 11 Feb 2008 12:59
by Shankar

It will be naive to assume Indian strategic planners were not aware of the ominous developments in the Indian Ocean region particularly increasing presence of PLAN in the Myanmar coast which included frequent visits to ports as well as joint “exercisesâ€

Posted: 11 Feb 2008 13:04
by rags
I second Deans,

I find your posts informative as well as entertaining. Keep it coming.


Posted: 11 Feb 2008 22:44
by mdhoat
rags wrote:I second Deans,

I find your posts informative as well as entertaining. Keep it coming.


Rags, Dean I was talking from my experience with Shankar's last post starting with plans to damage the uranium shipment from Australia to India with a Iranian Submarine involved. The initial phase and extra details wore out Shankar so much that he left the scenario in the middle just when the stage was set and things were about to roll. So if Shankar is committed to finish what he starts then it is awesome reading all that character buildup and backgrounds information on the developing scenario.

Posted: 12 Feb 2008 20:06
by dhruvarka
Well, Shankar did complete the earlier ones. Before he quit, he did inform us that he had some visits comming up and some other commitments. Then at the same time, Vivek's scenario came on the scene. Backgrounds are essential otherwise how do you know where you are headed. See any book by Tom Clancy and you find at least 70% is back ground stuff.

Posted: 12 Feb 2008 21:02
by Ankit Desai
I Third,

Some time I do feel lengthy but Its informative and needed to understand why is this scenario happening and to understand every crafted move of each person as well why perticular object which is involved in move.

rags wrote:I second Deans,

I find your posts informative as well as entertaining. Keep it coming.



Posted: 13 Feb 2008 14:22
by Shankar

It was bitterly cold in Beijing as the strong north westerly wind swept through the gate of supreme harmony carrying the chill from the high plateaus of Inner Mongolia. It also carried in its wake the first flakes of snow of the season, covering the Forbidden City and its Dragon Throne in a blanket of pure white. The extra wide moat just outside the huge gate was nearly frozen, exuding a grayish white gleam on the top. The not so famous Tian Men Square wore a deserted look as the spot less white carpet of snow started covering up the relics of brutality in not so distant past.
Not very far from the Forbidden City, in the basement of a massive government building, built with profoundly Stalinist architectural bias the politburo pf peoples republic of China was in session. The paramount leader of China spoke in a raspy voice and rest of the room was in absolute quite. Apart from committee members the service chiefs of peoples liberation army were also present and it was apparent that a significant military decision was about to be taken.
Comrades, the supreme leader spoke in a low monotone, “our intelligence sources in Middle East have indicated the possibility of a multiple terror strikes in Saudi Arabia in near future which is likely to affect our crude and LNG imports substantially for the next six months to one year. Our economy demands uninterrupted supply of energy at any cost if we are to maintain the present rate of growth and sustain the aspirations of our people.â€

Posted: 15 Feb 2008 11:13
by Shankar

Hafiz has waited patiently over the last 72 hrs as the unknown virus he has injected into the marine terminals computerized load dispatch and control system take hold . As each specific command was issued by the central computer and translated into action of the hundreds of valves spread all across the sprawling terminal the virus multiplied ,eating into the delicate a logarithms built up over decades of knowledge and field experience paralyzing them one at a time .It was designed to attack the back up command codes first and then the back up instructions which constituted the fail safe system , As the system operators tried to desperately restore the automatic functioning of the process control system bringing into line the back up programmable logic controllers and control units ,the virus spread its electronic wings further and deeper .And then the inevitable happened .There was no option but to shut the elaborate automated system control features and switch over to direct time consuming and some what risky manual operation.

This is exactly what Hafiz had been waiting for. As the news of loading chaos reached his desk he drove down for an on the spot" inspection" and "advise" on the course of action to be taken to restore the flow of crude and gas as quickly as possible .His first order was to de activate all "un necessary safety interlocks " to minimize load on whatever computing capability still available and then he made his final move .

As he got down from his BMW inside the secured perimeter of the LPG processing plant ,it was a scene of organized chaos. After a cursory round of the installation he made a bee line for the liquefied petroleum compressor manifold. A quick look around to confirm no was actually paying any attention to him; he quickly took out the small pencil of magnesium powder with a mini mercury fulminate detonator strapped to it on a magnetic base. Several sections of the discharge manifold had pre weakened sections to assure the safety of system. As he clicked on the improvised igniter to the LPG pipeline he also removed the smoke and fire sensors in the vicinity just to be double sure.

Hafiz quickly left the scene as the device will ignite the volatile propane butane mixture anytime between 45-60 minutes . The three 22 inch large diameter gas pipelines will carry the hot products of combustion to the three extra ;arge LPG tankers presently being filled up in the terminal in a matter of minutes .

The resulting explosion should blow the worlds largest crude oil/gas terminal off the face of earth with absolute certainty, may be more effectively than a small nuclear bomb.

The resultant explosion and fire ball exceeded even Hafiz's wildest expectation. Only it happened a bit too soon ,even before he managed to clear the safety zone around the LPG compressing station . Hafez got a death which he did not wished for.

Within hours the crude price touched US$ 150 on th spot market and its availability plummeted. Countries like India and China were worst hit .For the peoples republic the importance of Myanmar oil and gas field
reached critical status .

The stage was set for a decisive conflict of the oceans .

Posted: 16 Feb 2008 17:16
by Shankar

Admiral Zhang Yushu politely ignored the invitation of the base commander for an elaborate lunch went straight to work and that included conceiving a strategy for a decisive surprise strike on the islands of Andaman and Nicobar ,neutralize the Indian naval and air force contingents based in the island chain and quickly occupy the islands by Chinese marine forces before reinforcements from Indian mainland can even get mobilized . Once the PLAN forces are in physical possession of the islands at least the big ones ,Myanmar will lay claim to the newly liberated islands based on historic ties and also agree to have them used PLAN for a period of 99 years at a mutually agreed price .

The admiral based his strike plan on formation of 3 separate strike forces duly supported by PLAAF assets from Myanmar and Bangladesh .If required it can be operated from mainland with air to air refueling but that option may prove to expensive in the long run thought the admiral
The two strike forces yet to be named will each have a destroyer flotilla and a frigate flotilla each .The third strike force will be essentially carrying the marines protected by the first two flotillas all along the ocean cruise and will detach only after they cross into Andaman’s sea after passing thru the Malacca straits .Then they will split up into two groups ,one heading for Port Blair and the other smaller one for Car Nicobar.
The naval assets allotted to him for the operation were as follows .His first job was to confirm availability and get maximum number of ships combat capable within a week at most .He will have also have to co ordinate with PLAAF commanders about air support both over Indian Ocean and Andamans .
• Changsha (161)
• Nanning (162)
• Nanchang (163)
• Guilin (164)
• Zhanjiang (165)
• Zhuhai (166)
• Shenzhen (167)
• Guangzhou (168)
• Wuhan (169)
• Lanzhou (170)

• Changde (509)
• Maoming (551)
• Yibin (552)
• Shaoguan (553)
• Anshun (554)
• Zhaotong (555)
• Jishou (557)
• Beihai (558)
• Kangding (559)
• Dongguan (560)
• Shantou (561)
• Jiangmen (562)
• Foshan (563)
• Yichang (564)
• Yulin (565)
• Yuxi (566)
• Xiangfan (567)

Conventional submarines:
• Type 035 (Ming class)

Landing ships:
• 10 Type 072II (Yuting class) LST
• 7 Type 072 (Yukan class) LST
• 4 Qiongsha class troop transport ships
• 1 hospital ship
• 4 Yudao class LSMs

Additional submarine assets were also promised and that may include some of the newer nuclear powered ones –the admiral hoped . But what worried him most was an effective air cover for his fleet Destroyers:
• Changsha (161)
• Nanning (162)
• Nanchang (163)
• Guilin (164)
• Zhanjiang (165)
• Zhuhai (166)
• Shenzhen (167)
• Guangzhou (168)
• Wuhan (169)
• Lanzhou (170)
• Changde (509)
• Maoming (551)
• Yibin (552)
• Shaoguan (553)
• Anshun (554)
• Zhaotong (555)
• Jishou (557)
• Beihai (558)
• Kangding (559)
• Dongguan (560)
• Shantou (561)
• Jiangmen (562)
• Foshan (563)
• Yichang (564)
• Yulin (565)
• Yuxi (566)
• Xiangfan (567)
Conventional submarines:
• Type 035 (Ming class)
Landing ships:
• 10 Type 072II (Yuting class) LST
• 7 Type 072 (Yukan class) LST
• 4 Qiongsha class troop transport ships
• 1 hospital ship
• 4 Yudao class LSMs

The Admiral was also expecting some of the newly commissioned nuclear powered attack submarines to join his fleets which he thought should be more than adequate for the Indian submarines patrolling the straits .
The most nagging worry was of course availability of adequate air cover for his invasion fleet. The PLAAF chief has committed full support in front of the paramount leader ,but how much of that translated to real action in the combat zone .was yet to be seen.

Posted: 17 Feb 2008 12:05
by Shankar

With much fanfare a twenty year treaty of friendship and co operation was signed between Myanmar and Peoples Republic of China. Salient point of the treaty were as follows
- China will extend an interest free credit of US$ 3.4 billion for development of off shore oil and gas fields in Myanmar’s territorial waters and exclusive economic zone
- In return all production from the newly developed oil and gas fields shall be shipped to China for a period of 10 years against the credit extended at a fixed price of US$ 85 per barrel of crude and for gas the price will conform to international market price
- The ownership of the to be developed off shore oil and gas wells shall be a new joint stock company in which Myanmar will hold 51% stake and China 49%
- The management and security of the new to be developed oil field shall be a joint responsibility of Government of Myanmar and Peoples Republic of China

About the same time the news paper also reported about the coming Myanmar-China fleet level naval exercise to be held in the Andaman’s Seas starting March 2010. The news report did mention this will be one of the largest peacetime deployments of Chinese navy and likely to include almost entire south sea fleet of the people’s liberation army navy.


Vice admiral Prakash Rao looked at the orange hue of setting sun playing over the Dolphins neck – a rocky projection which projects into the Bay of Bengal and forms the gateway to the submarine base in the bay. The ominous reports about a Chinese fleet build up and proposed joint exercise between China and Myanmar in the Bay of Bengal was not exactly welcome news.

He really did not expect a full blown conflict any time soon but his job was not to guess, but to be prepared for any eventuality .To counter /shadow the Chinas south sea fleet he first of all needed a fair amount aerial recon assets including satellite time over the ocean region and air bases/airports in Myanmar.

He also needed some real anti ship capability in and around Andaman Islands and need them quick.

He instructed his secretary to book him on the next days evening jet air ways flight to Delhi via Hyderabad. He knew he needed the direct support of the navy chief to get the capability he wanted and that included stripping some of the prized assets from western naval command and south western air command.

It was already dark outside and a strong sea breeze started blowing by the time Prakash Rao ,flag officer commanding eastern naval command stepped out and started walking towards his official accommodation just under a km from his office. In the days to come he will be conducting perhaps the most complex and most intense naval –air operations
ever carried out by India involving land and carrier based aircrafts,ships and submarines of all kinds and vintage,a nightmarish logistics scenario and more.

But then all that was still in future .For the moment for Prakash, it was complex situation which needed to be tackled firmly and with tact.

The dinner at home was as usual good ,piping hot sambhar and rice with lot of home made curd and green chillies on the side.A cup of filter coffee to end the day with was all the veteran naval aviator wanted out of life and strangely a naval conflict was not what he looked, for for he knew about the gory side of war too -the blood slicked decks and the charred bodies in the cockpit,the ruptured ear drums and shell shocked glazed eyes .

But then destiny had other plans for him -to be the grand master of death and destruction,about to be unleashed on a deceptive invader by Indian navy .

Posted: 18 Feb 2008 12:52
by Shankar

Admiral Vijay Kumar ,chief of naval staff was stunned by the open brilliance of attack plan presented by Prakash Rao ,flag officer commanding eastern naval command . Being an avid student of maritime conflicts of the last century he immediately realized the sure fire method suggested by Prakash was perhaps the most effective way of countering naval might in the Indian ocean more particularly Andaman’s region .The plan presented by his fleet commander was essentially based on the concept of wolf pack attack practiced by German navy during second world war with great success .

The Wolf Pack or “Rudeltaktikâ€

Posted: 18 Feb 2008 14:32
by Sudhanshu
Now you are talking Shankar...
Good job!!

{I assume admin is regular visitor here, more I don't know how to do this}

-- sent in private-- :)

Posted: 18 Feb 2008 14:46
by Sudhanshu
Shankar wrote:[b]
...The humiliation of 1962 was about to avenged in a spectacular way . ...

Yeah, we should not just kill them in Indian oceans itself but you might want to present some scenario like pursuing them till china sea. And, search and destroy all their naval assets there.. :)

Like Vivek, you might want to take into consideration some political things too, how PM and others reacted/took decisions and stuff (Just a suggestion, before others jump on me) Because at the end of day, they are the one to decide, not all authorities lies with Naval chief only.

Posted: 19 Feb 2008 21:36
by jamwal
Great work Shankar sahib


Posted: 20 Feb 2008 01:02
by pradeepe
As usual great story Shankar.

One of the most famous Wolf Pack attacks took place between the nights of October 16th to the 19th, 1940. Convoy SC7 was repeatedly attacked by a pack of seven boats, sinking 20 ships out of 34 in the convoy. The very next night, convoy HX79 was attacked with further losses of 14 ships, making a total of 34 ships in 48 hours. These attacks mounted against the two convoys became to be known as “The Night of the Long Knivesâ€

Posted: 20 Feb 2008 12:17
by Shankar

Admiral Zhang Yushu was not happy at all. The preparation for the invasion of Andaman’s was way behind schedule .The docks were full of new boilers ,turbines propeller shaft still to be installed and loading of ammo and missiles have not yet started. He expected another 3 weeks minimum before the fleet could set sail.

His PLAAF comrades have assured him full support. 2 full squadrons of Su 27 was promised to be relocated at Myanmar in next two weeks to counter the presence of Indian flankers at Car Nicobar along with host of other strike and interceptors . The newer SU-s30MKM was however reserved for Taiwan sector and could not be released at the moment.

His basic plan was to overwhelm the Indian defenses by a massive frontal assault .He knew his losses will be significant but in the end victory will be waiting for him .The sheer numerical superiority will give him the winning edge .

He expected Indian navy to confront the armada at Malacca straits the much vaunted choke point and the entry to sea of Andaman’s. The lead element of his flotilla would be the long range anti ship missile equipped destroyers followed by the troops ship convoys and rear guard of older frigates and destroyers in an elongated box like sailing formation.

He was sure the massive naval might supported by aircraft from Myanmar will be able to overcome any defense that the Indian might throw up PLAN marines should be able to take control of the island chain after that without much opposition.

It was a good plan –on paper

But Admiral Zhang Yushu did not consider the fact that Indian navy may not be playing the game as per his rules and expectations. The most proactive amongst all Indian armed forces, the navy had its own idea about how the war is to be fought.

And also he did not plan for the weather .


The mood was somber as the newly elected prime minister of India took the chair and the navy chief started his presentation .It took almost half a day and detailed the present deployments of both PLAN and IN forces and what he wanted from the political establishment and his colleagues in army and air force.The meeting was adjourned for a simple working lunch of chicken curry ,panner butter massala ,dal fry ,curd and rice with chapatti. During the lunch the ministers interacted with the navy chief in an informal way to better understand the threat facing the country’s distant shores .Once the lunch was over the defense minister made his presentation and made his recommendation to the committee. It was accepted unanimously.

In the evening the defense minister and external affairs minister joined the prime minister in the situations room which was equipped with state of the art communication facility and soon friendly leaders all over the world were being contacted and briefed and in some cases requests were being made . Most of the requests were acceded almost immediately ,some were promised to be looked into and responded to in a matter of days .The political and economic clout of Indian state was put to use in fullest and the outcome was more than satisfactory .No one wanted a maritime domination of Indian ocean by China


Rear Admiral Hyder Ali looked at the rising sun from the bridge as the captain of the ship gently eased the 46000 ton carrier into anchorage .It has made the long voyage from Karwar in just under a week along with its escort group for an extended exercise with Philippines navy in the south china sea . The visit was on express invitation from the Philippines and expected to last two to three weeks.


Lt general Dipinder Singh, commanding officer IV corps was a busy man particularly this morning. The second of the newly raised mountain divisions have just reported in with their commanding officer, newly promoted major general Dipak Rawat was waiting for his deployment orders to Tawang .As he was explaining the deployment objective and plan to the major general the red phone on his desk blipped. It was a call directly from Director of Military operations and needed immediate attention. He listened attentively for almost 30 minutes and made notes. By the time the conversation was over the deployment plans and objectives discussed so far became meaningless. He was now to get ready for a possible outbreak of hostilities all along the line of actual control in a matter of weeks.

Posted: 20 Feb 2008 12:45
by gauravjkale
Dear Shankar

Looking at the immediate threat on nations security and keeping in mind the welfare of the BRfites all your leave are cancelled from immediate effect.

You are to post one chapter EVERY DAY till the time Indian Defence forces create history and tells the world that we are not the one they shold mess around with.

The BR community needs you the most and is hoping that you shall not dissappoint us and feed us with the required dose od scenario on a regular basis.

Thank You and keep the good work comming.

Posted: 20 Feb 2008 13:48
by derkonig
i second the fart-wa above

Posted: 20 Feb 2008 14:09
by Shankar

Captain Raina, commanding officer of the navy’s two newly acquired nuclear attack submarines finished his inspection of the submarines exterior before going in. Trained in Russia for 3 years and an experienced commander of Kilo class, submarines was his first passion ,undersea warfare second and his wife of 20 years a distant third .

A few hours back he was called into an urgently summoned video conference with naval head quarters where senior commanders from western naval command were alsoâ€

Posted: 20 Feb 2008 17:11
by Shankar

by Yossef Bodansky(1)
The Strait of Malacca is one of the world's hottest and most crucial strategic choke points. It is considered by experts to be one of the ten most vulnerable objectives which neutralization by hostile forces not only will cause tremendous harm to the well being, perhaps very existence, of the economy of the West, but is also very easy to accomplish. Controlling the Strait of Malacca is presently a key strategic objective of the PRC to the point of risking armed conflict with the regional states and even the US.

The Strait of Malacca is a narrow waterway between Malaysia and Sumatera island of Indonesia. Virtually the entire commercial sea traffic between the Far East and Europe, the Middle East, and India and passes through the Strait of Malacca. The entire fuel and gas shipments purchased from the Persian Gulf for the Far East passes there. Further more, the region's largest oil fields are virtually in the eastern mouth of the Strait. Moreover, Singapore -- the region's largest commercial and communications center and key port -- lies at the eastern mouth of the Strait of Malacca.

The Strait of Malacca dominates more than the commercial and economic life lines into and out of the rapidly expanding economies of East Asia. The global strategic growth and expansion of aspiring powers can be contained and regulated through the mere control over the movement of their naval forces through the Strait of Malacca.

For Beijing, this reality is increasingly a vital interest. Any Chinese naval and military surge into the Indian Ocean -- a major strategic priority of Beijing -- must pass through the Strait of Malacca. Beijing considers its surge into the Indian Ocean as part of a strategic surge of global proportions aimed at consolidating military posture in a hostile environment (from a both global and regional strategic point of view), and in a strategic grand design that anticipates the possibility of a major military clash with the US in the foreseeable future.
This grim assessment and the resolute commitment to resolve it were not reached hastily. Back in 1992, the CMC had already resolved, at least in principle, to establish a high performance blue water fleet, including the acquisition of an aircraft carrier. However, at the time, the strategic principles and priorities had not been determined. Nevertheless, several promising PLA officers were already sent to study the principles of modern high-technology naval and aerial warfare. Back in 1992, the CMC envisaged the completion of the first phase of this build-up to be between 1997 and 2000.
In early 1993, the naval build-up and modernization plan decided upon by the CMC was getting shape. The PLA was instructed to operate on the principle that China was committed to building "the world's most powerful navy." The PLA navy already had clear strategic priorities and tasks in mind. "In the short-term, the central strategic task of naval construction must be to transform the navy from a coastal defense force into an offshore fleet capable of defending territorial interests." China's ship designers and builders were told that the PLA navy had already resolved that the only way these national interests could be defended was through an assertive military surge. This concept should determine the character of the PRC's future navy. "This fleet's main tasks will be to control nearby waters, notably by exercising air and sea control in the East China and South China Seas to protect territorial waters and to defend shipping lanes." However, these instructions and policy guidelines covered only the first stage of a far larger and more ambitious strategic surge already decided upon.
The PLA's commitment to a regional assertive strategy based on a naval breakout southward was also stated explicitly by the PLA High Command in early 1993. Zhao Nanqi, director of the General Staff Logistics Department of the Chinese Navy, issued a top-secret memorandum that explained in great detail the PLA's strategic plans to consolidate control over the South China Sea and the Indian Ocean under the new doctrine of "high-sea defense." Zhao stated that "We can no longer accept the Indian Ocean as only an ocean of the Indians." In order to enable the PRC to consolidate the strategic posture Beijing spires to, Zhao envisages a massive naval build-up and assertive use of sea power. Only activist use of sea power can be considered the primary means to enable the PRC to finally secure its control over the oil-rich South China Sea. Beijing has no doubt that its strategic surge would be opposed by its neighbors. "We are taking armed conflicts in the region into account," Zhao stated in his top secret memorandum.
By 1993, the PLA High Command was already considering the surge toward the South China Sea and the Strait of Malacca the greatest and most urgent strategic challenge facing the PRC. This threat assessment was stated in the July 1993 milestone book Can the Chinese Army Win the Next War? which outlined authoritatively Beijing's perception of future wars. The book stressed the inevitability of a strategic clash with the US over the future of East Asia, to be waged primarily through numerous local wars involving the PLA in clashes with US allies and proxies, as well as the US itself. The book stressed that "the Chinese Army is making active preparations for coming local or regional wars." Despite the existence of numerous treaties between the US and local powers that might compel the US to intervene militarily on their behalf, the PLA High Command singles out the situation in the Spratly Islands as the primary catalyst for a US military intervention in the region against the PRC. "Once China uses force to protect its national sovereignty in that area, a quite large scale local war will be unavoidable, at which time the South China Sea will become a second Persian Gulf!"
Thus, Beijing had committed itself already in 1992-93 to this massive naval build-up. Examining the prevailing strategic posture in the region, the allotted time frame envisaged at least five years for the completion of the first phase of build-up. The ensuing build-up has been more than just acquiring weapon systems and training their crews. The PRC has simultaneously embarked on an all-out surge throughout the region to create the regional circumstances so that the impact of the Chinese new military power will be maximal. This surge includes a host of covert operations including sponsorship of terrorism by China's close allies. This campaign was accelerating as of mid 1994. However, in early 1995, a sense of urgency was suddenly introduced into Beijing's assertive strategic grand design.
In early 1995, Beijing concluded that its apprehensions about a hostile US policy were fully justified. US East Asian strategy is based on evoking the "China Threat" in order to remove potential competition. Moreover, Washington now intended to use India in order "to help contain China." This was only a component of an effort to form ties with China's neighbors in order to encircle China. The PRC's naval threat analysis in the summer of 1995 specifically pointed to the growing naval cooperation between the US and India as well as to India's own naval build-up programs and other naval activities of India's Eastern Naval Command. These were identified as reasons for strategic apprehension that the PRC must take into consideration. After all, the emerging strategic posture in the Indian Ocean, if permitted to evolve, would significantly challenge Beijing's ability to carry out its strategic naval surge planned for the end of the decade.
Therefore, in the spring of 1995, as these strategic calculations were being made, Beijing resolved to markedly expedite its surge, at the least parts of it, so that it would be impossible for its enemies to forestall its rise to global power. The most urgent task identified by the PLA strategic analysts is to consolidate control over the Strait of Malacca so that no other power is capable of blocking the surge of the Chinese Navy the moment it is capable of surging into the Indian Ocean and Beijing gives the order to do so.

This was the official chinese naval policy with respect to Indian ocean on record. So when the fisrt reports on PLAN build up was recieved ,indian navy was to some extent prepared for it. The dispersal and repositioning of its potent assets started almost immediatelyand that included temporay basing facility provided by some of chinas old enemy like vietnam and Philippines who could on their own never take on the naval might of peoples republic but were brave enough to extend whatever help it could to Indian navy

Taiwan was also more than willing but was not included in the scope of things intentionally as it had the possibility of turning chinas anger on the island nation and dragging US into the conflict with possible nuclear dimension

An unexpected ally was Thailand .After gentle pursuation from the Americans she opened up quite few of her air and naval bases for temporary deployment of Indian forces .

It was important to keep most of the conflict away from Malacca strait for world trade and also it was important to keep the PLAN ships away from indian teritory and mainland . There was only one place in PLANs projected sailing path where it could happen

Gulf of Thailand

Posted: 21 Feb 2008 10:05
by Shankar
Hi guys -just off to east coast till 26th - sorry for the unintended break -please use the break to give me feedbacks -shankar

Posted: 22 Feb 2008 12:07
by Deans
Shankar, Great stuff.
I am however seceptical of IN being allowed to a) strike first at PLAN
(if indeed that is what's going to happen) & b) fight a battle in the
Gulf of Thailand.

It is not the IN's ability to do so, but the political will to allow the armed forces to strike first, or project power ouside India's immediate sphere of

I am jumpng the gun here, here but a more credible senario might be to allow the PLAN to move West of the Malacca straits and then engage them. This will make IAF assets in the Andaman's available and exploit
PLAN's weakness w.r.t sustaining fleet level operations far from home.

P.S - A small chinese `diversionary' naval force on a friendly visit to Myanmar prior to hostilities, could make things more interesting and complicated.

Posted: 27 Feb 2008 21:43
by Sudhanshu
Shankar wrote:Hi guys -just off to east coast till 26th - sorry for the unintended break -please use the break to give me feedbacks -shankar

:cry: today is 27th in US... no sign of Shankar

Posted: 27 Feb 2008 22:27
by k prasad
dhruvarka wrote:Well, Shankar did complete the earlier ones. Before he quit, he did inform us that he had some visits comming up and some other commitments. Then at the same time, Vivek's scenario came on the scene. Backgrounds are essential otherwise how do you know where you are headed. See any book by Tom Clancy and you find at least 70% is back ground stuff.

Forget Clancy, Shankar's writing is a lot like forsyth's. Keep 'em coming Shankarda.

In fact, I'd suggest that you write a book with this... wouldnt be a bad idea, would it. Get shankar, Vivek, Shiv, Arun and others to write a collection of military scenario stories, or about 40-50 pages each, and publish it as a 200 or so page book. Would be extremely interesting.

Posted: 28 Feb 2008 15:39
by Shankar

Admiral Vijay Kumar liked his coffee strong and liked it hot . Being a naval aviator who first flew the last of the sea kings off the deck of Vikrant during strikes on Cox Bazar and Khulan and later switched to sea harriers from the deck of Virat ,he was very much aware of the flexibility and effectiveness of carrier based air strike to both land and maritime targets and at the same time he knew only too well their vulnerability to powerful counter air operations based on heavy land based long range air domination aircraft like Su-27 Flanker .

The Gulf of Thailand (or Gulf of Siam) is a gulf that borders, but is not part of the South China Sea (Pacific Ocean). The gulf is bordered by Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam. The northern tip of the gulf is the Bay of Bangkok at the mouth of the Chao Phraya River, near Bangkok. The gulf covers roughly 320,000 km². The boundary of the gulf is defined by the line from Cape Bai Bung in southern Vietnam (just south of the mouth of the Mekong river) to the city Kota Baru on the Malaysian coast. At the height of the last ice age the Gulf of Thailand did not exist, due to the lower sea level, the location being part of the Chao Phraya river valley. The gulf is relatively shallow: the mean depth is 45 m, and the maximum depth only 80 m. This makes water exchange slow, and the strong water inflow from the rivers make the Gulf low in salinity (3.05-3.25%) and rich in sediments. Only at the greater depths does water with a higher salinity (3.4%) flow into the gulf from the South China sea and fills the central depression below a depth of 50 m. The main rivers which empty into the gulf are the Chao Phraya (including its distributaries Tha Chin River), Mae Klong and Bang Pa Kong Rivers at the Bay of Bangkok, and to a lesser degree the Tapi River into Bandon Bay in the southwest of the gulf.
Due to the tropical warmth of the water, the Gulf of Thailand harbors many coral reefs, and thus several diving resorts. Most popular for tourism, is the island Ko Samui in the Surat Thani province, while Ko Tao is the center of the diving tourism.

Admiral Vijay knew to inflict unacceptable level damage to the PLAN invasion fleet expected t set sail within the week ,he will have to use the carrier air power at the same time the PLANPLAAF flankers must be kept away better still neutralized before and during the strike missions to keep the Indian naval aircraft attrition at an acceptable level.
He was still not sure about the sailing order of PALN fleet and how the various groups will be arranged and protected during the voyage across the strait and Gulf of Thailand .This information will be available only when the ships actually cross the Malacca straits and spread out into the preplanned attack formation.

The Red scrambled phone on his desk rang twice –it was the call from the defense minister and it was time to explain once again why intercepting the PLAN in Gulf of Thailand is a far better option from the strategic point of view than the course suggested by political leaders . Even now when the PLAN plan of action have been confirmed many times over by a variety of intelligence sources both Indian and other friendly countries majority of the newly elected so called nationalist leaders were hesitant about a pre emptive surgical strike to stop the invasion on its track far from Indian shores .


Air marshal Raut looked at the cryptic memo from the defense minister with obvious distaste. Even though it was no explicitly specified the object of this urgent meeting could be guessed without much difficulty. The massing of PLAN/PLAAF assets in Myanmar was well known and the intention of the Indian navy not allow the PLAN invasion fleet now forming up, to come anywhere within the vulnerable Andaman Nicobar group of islands was also not exactly a state secret.

What was but a state secret was how the Indian armed forces are going to meet the specified national objective with minimum loss of men and in shortest possible time .He once again checked up the current assets availability memos from the regional air commands and was not very happy with what he saw. Fortunately all the long range aircrafts likely to be used in the conflict had a 90% plus rating and relocating them to eastern sea board bases and civilian airports have already started .Airports like Kolkata and Bhubaneswar were likely to be switched over to Military air traffic control in a matter of days. While they will continue civilian services, but to a much reduced scale. Vizag airport was closed already to all civilian air traffic ostensibly to facilitate re-carpeting of the main 10000 ft runway and now used almost exclusively by the Tu-142 and a pair of Phalcons with their own escort of Mig 29k s.

In short it was an attack plan he did not support exactly but also could not offer a better option -so he just decided to go along for the time being

He would have preferred an engagement closer to home shores but as far as this operation was concerned the navy was calling the shots


The cups of tea and plates of chocolate biscuits never stopped coming, and the arguments for and against pre emptive strike kept on .The most referred example was that of Israel in the 6 day war and also USAF in gulf war when a massive preemptive air strike did change the outcome of the war.
It was at this point the chief of navy staff entered the room ,followed shortly by the air chief .The final strategy of the coming war was about to be decided

Posted: 28 Feb 2008 17:25
by Shankar

Myitkyina - West Nampong (ICAO Code: VYNP)
Officially designated No. xxx Air Base, Nampong AFB. Formerly known as Myikyina West. West Nampong Airport is located several miles further to the west of Myitkyina than Pamti. Date of construction not known. It is in current military use and home to a fighter squadron and an attack squadron.
Runway data: Rwy 18/36, Size: 11025 x 190 ft (3360 x 58 m), Elev: 459 ft (140 m), Location: 097° 17' 42.54" E , 25° 21' 15.75" N

The first PLAN Su-27 touched down exactly at 1200 hrs and the next after 10 minutes. By 1400 Hrs the full squadron of 18 flankers were dispersed thru out the sprawling airfields ,in some what run down need to repair type hard shelters and in the parking apron as the mechanics got to work on them right away.

IRS 2B made its scheduled pass next morning 0630 hrs her robotic brain compared the images with those in her electronic reference memory ,assigned a down load priority and down loaded to the central earth station some where in south central India . It was on the desk of air chief by next morning with comments of from air intelligence for necessary “actionâ€

Posted: 29 Feb 2008 12:39
by Shankar

- captain has the con
- helmsman-con - make periscope depth –climb angle 5 degree
- climbing to periscope depth – climb angle 5 degree
- engine room –con – maintain speed 5 knots and stand by for max power at short notice

Captain Raina like all submarine commanders world over hated to surface .Depth of the oceans is where he felt comfortable but once a day surfacing to at least periscope depth was unavoidable to collect the high speed burst transmitted orders from naval headquarters and also a very quick surface search of his patrol area off the PLAN submarine base at Yulin.In less than a minute he would carry out a 360 degree visual and electronic search of the surface al information will be automatically recorded in the high definition digital disc for later analysis

The deck under his feet canted upwards as his commands were translated into physical movement of the submersible ship. It took about 2.4 minutes to come up to periscope depth from his classified patrol depth in this part of the ocean and the shark leveled out smoothly just like its biological cousin

-up ESM –report and contact
- ESM up – no hostile contact sir
-up periscope

The periscope hissed up silently on hydraulic pressure on its well lubricated mount. Few seconds for the water to drain off the lens cover and then the outside picture came in sharp and clear if some what misty as Raina quickly made a 360 degree scan ,taking in all details about surface traffic and his surroundings. He could see the lights of Yulin port in the distance at 10 o clock and the darkened shapes of submarine pens cut into the mountain side at 1 o clock .

Luck was with him today ,no PLAN maritime air patrol was on air this time of the night and subs were all tied to their maintenance piers where hectic work appeared to be going on most of the ships . The suspected fortified underground pen for the sole boomer appeared to be deserted.

According to sources in Taiwan, Japan, India and China, the People's Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) is building a new focus for its strategic nuclear forces: Hainan Island in the South China Sea. The new hub would reflect China's expanding naval power projection capabilities and greatly increase the possibility of confrontation with other navies.

The strategic shift most likely involves basing some of the PLAN's new Type 094 Jin-class nuclear strategic missile submarines (SSBNs) at a new facility either within or near the existing South Sea Fleet base at Yulin on Hainan Island.

Since 2002, Jane's has interviewed several Asian government officials on China's efforts to build a new nuclear submarine base on Hainan. At first this was described as an underground submarine base, similar to the PLAN's underground pen to support its single North Sea Fleet nuclear submarine base at Huludao on the Bohai Gulf.

In late 2004, however, a serving People's Liberation Army officer who confirmed the existence of a new base also noted that it was not to be an underground facility. Further evidence of a base in some form came in early 2005 when internet source photos documented the visit of a single Type 091 Han-class nuclear attack submarine (SSN) to Yulin. In late 2005, an Asian military source noted that the Hainan facility would be able to host up to eight submarines and might even be scheduled to begin operations in 2006

Captain Raina knew his first priority was neutralizing the Yulin naval base the moment the hostilities break out or even before but only after getting the green signal from Delhi . Todays signal did not carry the order he was expecting and so for the next 24 hours he and his crew will patrol the dark depths of south china sea ghosts from yesteryear .

-helmsman-con - make depth 260 meters-dive angle 15 degree
- con -making depth 260 meters -dive angle 15 degree
- engine room -con- make speed 12 knost
- set set course 180
-course set 180 - depth 150 meters approaching 200 meter mark

The hulls gave out that scary creaking noise as the outside water perssure exceeded 20 times atmospheric and the reinforced hulls took on the quickly developing stress and met it with its own strength as the akula dived deeper and deeper away from the prying eyes on the surface .

The day of the Akula has still not come

Posted: 29 Feb 2008 15:11
by Shankar


[quote]As with other maritime forces, China has been seeking to network disparate assets, and to meet that requirement, it has been establishing signal stations on islands and atolls throughout the South China Sea. These facilities, which range from communications relays to radar units, both demonstrate China’s expanding regional reach and provide a rare glimpse of the country’s military electronics technologies.
China has been actively expanding south from Hainan Island since 1974 when it seized the Paracel Islands from the Vietnamese, and its activities continued in the 1990s with construction on several Spratley Islands reefs. Locations of Chinese military electronics on the mainland are largely hidden, and any photographs are classified. But, facilities on the South China Sea islands and reefs place this technology out in the open.
Based on electronics and facilities observed, Woody Island in the Paracels and Fiery Cross Island in the Spratleys seem to be the main control links to China’s South Fleet Guangzhou headquarters. Other armed Chinese islands or reefs are linked via satellite communications and radio to the local and fleet commanders. The electronics and combat systems of the Chinese aircraft, warships and paramilitary ships greatly augment the island-based electronics.
The only electronic systems directly off the south China coast are ones that involve offshore naval operations. A large over-the-horizon (OTH) backscatter (OTH-B) radar faces south near the southern coast of China. In the 1970s, the experimental OTH radar had a 2,300-meter antenna and could pick up surface ships at 250 kilometers. A series of technical papers describing a skyway OTH radar in the early 1990s leads to the conclusion that operational deployment would have been in that period.
The only electronic systems directly off the south China coast are ones that involve offshore naval operations. A large over-the-horizon (OTH) backscatter (OTH-B) radar faces south near the southern coast of China. In the 1970s, the experimental OTH radar had a 2,300-meter antenna and could pick up surface ships at 250 kilometers. A series of technical papers describing a skyway OTH radar in the early 1990s leads to the conclusion that operational deployment would have been in that period.
The fact that Guangzhou is the headquarters of the South China Fleet indicates a major complex of tactical and strategic space and land-based communication and long-range radars in that area. They would be focused south into the South China Sea.
Radio beacon navigation–differential global positioning system (GPS), or RBN-DGPS, are located at the southern ports of Zhanjiang, Fangcheng and Luyu. DGPS manufactured by Communication Systems International can be accurate to within 5 to 10 meters with a 300-kilometer range. The vessel traffic service (VTS) is located at Zhanjiang. Western imported technology is an integral part of these electronic systems because the DGPS is Australian and VTS is from Lockheed Martin in Syracuse, New York.
Although appearing to be a tourist island of native tribes and small villages, Hainan Island features an embedded, but nearly invisible, strong military electronic infrastructure. The emergency landing of a U.S. Navy EP-3C at Lingshui airfield in 2001 was a peek into this. Mainland Chinese governments prior to World War II minimally touched Hainan, although there was a naval station at “Hoihowâ€

Posted: 29 Feb 2008 16:28
by k prasad
Love the way this is shaping up... cant wait for the first shots to be fired. keep em coming Shankar.

Posted: 01 Mar 2008 11:48
by Shankar

Mingaladon (ICAO code: VBRR/VYRR and VYYY, IATA code: RGN)
Mingaladon International Airport, the airport for the capital city of Yangon (Rangoon) is located 12 miles (19 km) to the north of the capital. The military portion is officially designated No. 502 Air Base, Mingaladon AFB. It is currently home to the Transport Squadron, a Liaison Squadron and a detachment from a Fighter Squadron. It is an ex-RAF base. It is in current dual military-civilian use.
Runway data: Rwy 03/21, Size: 8104 x 200 ft (2470 x 61 m), Elev: 109 ft (33 m), Location: 096° 07' 59.60" E, 16° 54' 26.30" N

- Mingaladon tower – PLAAF flight 02 – to land
- PLAAF flight –Mingaldon tower –you are cleared to land on runway 03 right –make right base –cleared to descend to 5000 ft
- PLAAF flight 02 –Mingaladon tower – cleared to land on runway 03 – descending to 5000 ft

The night was dark and moonless. As the two PLAAF AWACS landed on Yangon international airport also referred as Mingaladon 502 airbase one more critical component Of Chinas grand encirclement strategy of Andaman’s was finally in place.

Both the aircrafts were quickly guided to a pair of unmarked shelters at the end of the airfield. The next days commercial traffic at the reasonably busy international airport will have no idea that some of Chinas most precious aerial assets is now stored in ramshackle sheds at the end of the runway

By 1992, China had begun talks with Russia about purchasing the Beriev A-50 (NATO codename: Mainstay) plane, the AWACS variant of the Ilyushin IL-76 military transport aircraft. Later, talks involved acquisition of an Israeli radar system. Three-way negotiations that began in 1994 considered four AEW aircraft for $1 billion. In 1996 China, Russia, and Israel reached initial agreement on a $250 million deal to supply one AEW aircraft to the PLAAF by installing an Israeli Aircraft Industries (IAI) Phalcon phased-array radar with 360 degree coverage on a A-50 plane.

In May 1997, Israel and Russia reached agreement on modifying one IL-76, as a Beriev A-50I, for $250 million, with the option of three more AWACS for a total cost of $1 billion. Russia secured about 20 percent of the deal. After some delay, in October 1999, Russia transferred an A-50 airframe to Israel for the installation of the Phalcon AEW radar system by IAI. By May 2000, Israel had nearly completed work on the aircraft.

The Phalcon deal became an increasingly controversial issue between the United States and Israel. In 2000, the Clinton Administration voiced stronger objections to the sale and urged Israel to cancel the sale of the Phalcon, saying it is a system comparable to the U.S. AWACS and could collect intelligence and guide aircraft from 250 miles away. Finally, in July 2000 the Israeli government cancelled the deal with China.

Following the humiliation of the cancelled A-50I/Phalcon deal, China turned to indigenous solutions. The Phalcon radar and other electronic systems were taken off from the unfinished A-50I, and the airframe was handed to China via Russia in 2002. Modifications on the A-50I airframe began in late 2002 to install the Chinese-made airborne radar system at Xi’an Aircraft Industry Co. (XAC). The aircraft made its first flight in November 2003, and was reportedly rename as Kongjing-2000 (KJ-2000).

The detailed information regarding the new Chinese AWACS is unknown. However, it is estimated that the aircraft is comparable to the Russian A-50 in general flight performance.

The Chinese AWACS is based on the airframe of the Russian A-50 AWACS aircraft, which was developed and manufactured by the Beriev Aircraft Research and Engineering Complex Joint Stock Company based at Taganrog in the Rostov Region of Russia. The A-50’s airframe was developed from the llyushin IL-76MD military transport aircraft manufactured by the Ilyushin Aviation Complex Joint Stock Company based in Moscow. The most distinctive difference on the A-50 airframe is the removal of the 'glass-in' nose of the IL-76MD.

The A-50 carries out patrol missions at an altitude of 5,000m to 10,000m. The patrol service ceiling is 10,000m. The maximum flight range of the aircraft is 5,000km and the flight endurance is 7 hours 40 minutes. At a range of 2,000m, the A-50 can remain on patrol for up to 1 hour 25 minutes. The Chinese A-50 airframe also has a fixed in-flight refuelling probe, which could be refuelled by the IL-78 Midas tanker. This will significantly increase the range and flight endurance of the aircraft.

The Chinese AWACS has a unique phased array radar (PAR) carried in a round radome. Unlike the U.S. AWACS aircraft, which rotate their rotodomes to give a 360 degree coverage, the radar antenna of the Chinese AWACS does not rotate. Instead, three PAR antenna modules are placed in a triangular configuration inside the round radome to provide a 360 degree coverage.

The Chinese-made airborne earning warning radar system is similar in capability to the IAI Phalcon, but may not be as capable as the latter. The Phalcon system could track up to 60~100 targets at the same time and guide a dozen fighters in all-weather, day and night operations.

Under normal circumstances the short radio conversation between the PLAAF and Yangon tower would have gone unnoticed but then this was not a normal time .An unnamed Indian navy signal intelligence gathering ship patrolling just outside the territorial waters of Myanmar off the Yangon port picked up the brief radio chatter Recorded it and forwarded it to eastern command naval intelligence unit located some where in the eastern sea board. Human intelligence units in the airport area were activated and within 48 hours the confirmation came in loud and clear. PLAAF have indeed positioned two of its AWACS in Yangon international airport (shed no 34 and 37) .The target data was forwarded to jaguar squadron based in Car Nicobar for necessary action at appropriate time.

Myanmar’s military junta was about to find out the hard way –it does not pay to side with the dragon ,in the long run.

Posted: 01 Mar 2008 17:01
by Shankar

Lt Commander Vina Peter looked at her mother ship and matched the speed of her aircraft with a deft touch on the throttle lever and a slight nudge on the rudder brought her along on a parallel course and matching speed . As she adjusted for the slight 3 knots cross wind over the flight deck ,the landing clearance came in from the carriers tower

-falcon lead –mother one –clear to land
-mother one –falcon lead – understand clear to land –landing in 2 minutes

Landing on any carrier deck is always a tricky business ,landing on a small carrier like Virat is even trickier and landing in vertical mode on a packed flight deck is trickiest of all thought Vina as she adjusted the thrust vector control levers slightly allowing the slow descent to marked spot on the carriers deck .Vertical velocity steady at 250 ft/min, ground speed at 25 knots and she came down in less than 2 minutes of the stipulated landing time maximum.

Virat was in Sandiego officially to take part in a joint air-land –sea exercise with USMC off the coast of California . What was not reported in the press was about the same time her entire air group was being refurbished with everything needed for a short intense combat and that included replacement of all common critical components and provision of spares and weapons including missiles not just for the sea harriers but also for the sea kings on deck . The air group was beefed up and on date Virat carried the maximum complement of 30 sea harriers some of which have joined her from UK via Sandiego .

USN was in its own way helping their Indian friend in the Indian ocean with spares and weapon systems which only they had, a kind of payback for the years Indian navy have helped them patrol the Indian ocean trade route.

During the 1982 Falklands Conflict a total of 28 Sea Harriers and 14 RAF Harrier GR3s were eventually deployed to the South Atlantic. Over 1,100 combat air patrol missions and 90 offensive support operations were flown by Sea Harriers and 125 ground attack and tactical reconnaissance sorties by Harrier GR3s. These aircraft were a major success, showing themselves to be flexible, robust, reliable and effective. Sea Harriers, which are intended largely for air defence, were also employed in the ground attack and reconnaissance roles: the Harrier GR3s, primarily ground attack aircraft, were converted within a week to use Sidewinder AIM 9L air-to-air missiles in the air defence role. There was 95% availability at the beginning of each day and 99% of all planned missions were flown. Sea Harrier demonstrated itself to be more than a match for Argentine conventional fixed wing aircraft with 20 confirmed and 3 probable kills, of which 16 and 1 respectively are attributable to Sidewinder AIM 9L missiles. Six Sea Harriers were destroyed, of which two were lost to enemy fire—one to small-arms fire and one to a Roland surface-to-air missile. Three GR3s were also lost to enemy fire, all to ground gunfire. Most aircraft engaged in offensive support survived damage, which usually resulted from intense Argentine anti-aircraft gunfire.

Operation Desert Storm in 1991 was highlighted by expeditionary air operations performed by the AV-8B. The Harrier II was the first Marine Corps tactical strike platform to arrive in theater, and subsequently operated from various basing postures. Three squadrons, totaling 60 aircraft, and one six-aircraft detachment operated ashore from an expeditionary airfield, while one squadron of 20 aircraft operated from a sea platform. During the ground war, AV-8Bs were based as close as 35 nautical miles (40.22 miles) from the Kuwait border, making them the most forward deployed tactical strike aircraft in theater. The AV-8B flew 3,380 sorties for a total of 4,083 flight hours while maintaining a mission capable rate in excess of 90%. Average turnaround time during the ground war surge rate flight operations was 23 minutes.
During April and May 1999 the 26th MEU participated in Operations Noble Anvil and Shining Hope. While supporting Noble Anvil, the unit participated in the NATO bombing Campaign in Kosovo with AV-8B Harrier Attack Aircraft. Marines aboard USS Kearsarge acted as the Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel (TRAP) Force as AV-8B Harriers showed their strength overhead by participating in the NATO bombing campaign over the former Republic of Yugosalvia (Operation Allied Force). The Marine Corps provided an outsized contribution to the air campaign as well. In addition to the expeditionary Prowlers, VMFA(AW)-332 and -533 F/A-18Ds deployed to Taszar, Hungary. Complemented by 12 AV-8B Harrier IIs from Nassau and Kearsarge, together they flew nearly 500 sorties, destroying significant high-value targets. Marine Corps aircrews, along with supporting ground forces, maintained a continuous Tactical Recovery of Aircraft and Personnel alert throughout the conflict. During the 1999 campaign in Kosovo, RAF Harrier GR7s were deployed. At the beginning of 1999, eight Harriers deployed to a base in Italy, together with two Tristar tankers, to support the Kosovo Verification Mission. This force was increased to 12 Harriers in late March. In the main, these aircraft dropped either cluster bombs, gravity bombs or precision guided weapons. RAF Harriers conducted cluster bomb attack on munitions storage site in Kosovo on 18 April 1999. No aircraft were lost during the campaign.

Lt Commander Vina came out of the undersized cockpit and scrambled down the aluminum step ladder propped up by the crew chief. As she jogged out of the landing area her wing man came down hard on the deck which made the the Lt commander frown with disgust and she made a mental note to give the guy (Lt Commander Shekhar Gupta ) a piece of her mind over dinner.

With 30 harriers plus the half a dozen kamov and sea kings each ,the flight deck and hanger area of Virat ressembled a fish market in down town Mumbai .But still everything moved some how –by the grace of God and plenty of luck

Tomorrow will be the last day of the exercise and then Virat was scheduled to return home via pacific and south china sea as per “original planâ€

Posted: 01 Mar 2008 17:54
by k prasad
Shankar wrote:Human intelligence units in the airport area were activated and within 48 hours the confirmation came in loud and clear. PLAAF have indeed positioned two of its AWACS in Yangon international airport (shed no 34 and 37) .The target data was forwarded to jaguar squadron based in Car Nicobar for necessary action at appropriate time.

Two questions, if this were indeed a real situation:

1. Isnt 48 hrs far too long, esp when the element of surprise, and the urgency of the situation is so high.. 24 hours would have been ideal. 48, and in a real combat op, in case they move the planes at the last minute, we've lost the initiative.

2. What about IMINT - Su-30MKIs would have been able to run surveillance and IMINT sorties from Vizag, Kalaikunda or Port Blair, and collected valuable intelligence, would they not. Plus, there are UAV assets that we could have employed. Is ther anything with these assets that made them ineffective in this situation?