Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby soumik » 14 Jan 2015 19:05

Vivekda, I think that any scenario concerning pakistan is incomplete without a mention of jihadi assets being used against Indian citizens via attacks on railways, airports etc.These assaults would serve to break supply lines in the hinterland while also creating a general atmosphere of panic and fear in the nation at large.
A long time ago (pre 26/11) when i was a member of the "WAB" i had read a scenario there about how jihadi elements could target the PM residence using the Delhi golf course grounds as a launching pad for Mortar Attacks, maybe you could incorporate something of the sort into your scenario as well.
Last edited by soumik on 14 Jan 2015 19:19, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby arshyam » 14 Jan 2015 21:43

vivek_ahuja wrote:Arshyam,

The assumption here is that the weaponry sourced through the US will be used regardless of whether the US would want them to be used or not. Additional spares can be withheld, but there are enough spares in the inventory of these purchases to last through the operations for at least the duration of the war.

Note that the scenario had posts much further back that talked about US policies regarding disabling of GPS systems on both sides, etc.

Thanks, you might want to state that assumption somewhere, so readers understand that you have considered and factored in that eventuality.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby aditp » 15 Jan 2015 13:47

Saaar, The Arjuns are probably repaired by now.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 15 Jan 2015 20:40

Image

NORTH OF LAHORE
DAY 3 + 0020 HRS


The line of seven Al-Khalid tanks moved obliquely, their main guns firing as they moved. Two kilometers to the west, the green-white flashes of their guns saturated the night-vision optics on his binoculars, so Haider lowered them and let his eyes adjust. Now the black of night punctuated by the flashes of yellow filled the horizon. As he watched, a distant crackle of fireballs indicated the falling of artillery on some poor souls on the frontlines…

Haider turned to see Akram standing behind him, watching silently. His low-light goggles were push up above his forehead on to his hair. Neither men said anything, but the silence was punctuated by the chatter of several radiomen and half a dozen staff officers busy running the army units out here. Haider finally walked up near Akram and rubbed his eyes.
“This front is stabilizing,” he said, his voice filled with exhaustion. “Looks like the 6TH Armored will hold its ground. For now, anyway.”

“Yes, sir.” Akram said quietly. A stabilized front was hardly the desired outcome for officers of his generation, brought up on the humiliation of defeat from previous wars. Haider patted the man on his shoulder. He knew how it felt. He turned to face the young major: “This is not how this was supposed to unfold.”

He looked his young aide in the eyes. He knew they all had seen and heard the state of the war as it stood tonight. The Indians had reacted to the strike on Mumbai with shocking force. And the results of all that had landed them here weeks after the event. But living in the past was something Haider could ill afford to do. Not at the moment, at least.

“I need to get some sleep if I am to function properly,” he said finally. “Wake me up if something happens during the night.”

Akram nodded and muttered a “yes, sir” under his breath. Haider walked past him and the radiomen towards the houses that had been requisitioned from their owners to serve as his command center. Until the Indians found this one too. But he was not going to sleep out here in the mud and cold. He needed a bed. A Pakistani general sleeping in the mud with his troops? Unthinkable. Even under the circumstances.

He walked past the dozens of soldiers and civilians resting on the streets outside the house. Some were eating food and others were sleeping. These men belonged to the units he had gotten out of Lahore prior to the nuclear detonation. Most of these infantry units were exhausted, expended and disorganized now. The battle for Lahore had proven very costly to the Pak army. One part of him wanted to wake these men up and send them off to the frontlines east of here. After all, that was what their comrades in the 6TH Armored Division were doing. But he was too exhausted from the efforts of the day trying to keep the 6TH Armored from disintegrating after the sudden destruction of its command centers by a series of Indian air strikes. And that was just before the unit had moved into combat! What would have happened to it if he hadn’t stepped in?

Perhaps his inner voice was trying to find justifications for his exhaustion. Maybe all his body wanted was some sleep. A few hours. That’s all. After that he would determine what had to be done next. He walked into the living room of the large house and found the stench of soldiers, officers, equipment, blood and food to be nauseous. He winced and walked past the soldiers to the second floor where a room had been kept aside for him. He walked in and went for the helmet chin strap, before realizing that it had been broken since his time in Lahore this morning.

God! Was it really just this morning? He asked himself as he sat down on the bed. It felt like it was months ago!
He fell back on his back on to the mattress and instantly fell asleep.

“Sir!” There was a knock on the door.

Haider muttered some choice Urdu expletives and then composed himself: “Go away! I told you to leave me alone!”
But the knock on the door persisted. “Sir! Please open the door!”
Haider picked up his sidearm from the bed and then walked up to the door. He opened it to find one of his radiomen standing there, holding a phone speaker. “Sir, incoming call from army headquarters! For you!”

Haider scowled and then took the phone from the man, extending its coiled cable as he walked into the room.
“General Haider, here.”
“General, please hold for the army commander!” A bland voice replied.
Haider raised an eyebrow at that. He wondered what Hussein wanted now…

“You still alive?” Haider recognized Hussein’s gruff voice. Not to mention his tone. His facial expression contorted, but he kept his voice calm.
“Alive and fighting,” he managed to say without anger seeping in. “No thanks to you though.”
“Where are you now?”
Haider let out a deep breath. “Commanding field units north of Lahore. The 6TH Armored in particular. The Indians decapitated its leadership just as it moved into the line. I was in the area and took over.”

“Good!” Hussein replied. Haider noted the change in tone. The man sounded genuine on that one. “Had you not stepped in, it would have been chaos and the Indians could have penetrated deep into our defenses. I was told that the 6TH Armored was fighting hard. I should have guessed you had something to do with adding steel to the spine of the men out there.”
“I appreciate that,” Haider sat down on the mattress. “How bad is it?”

He heard what could only be a long sigh on the other end. Haider knew that well enough: Hussein wasn’t sure what to do. That sigh had always been his placeholder whenever he wanted advice but didn’t want to ask for it. Haider looked to the floor: “that bad, eh?”
“Did you hear about the debacle near Rahim Yar Khan this evening?”

“I heard some rumors on the command net,” Haider lied. He knew a great deal more about that failed counterattack from his ISI commanders, but he wanted Hussein to say it the way he saw it. Because that was more important than what anyone else thought…

“The Indians routed us from there, plain and simple.” Hussein said, surprising Haider with his uncharacteristic bout of honesty. Pakistani generals never admit defeat as a matter of principle. They couldn’t. Doing so meant public humiliation and ridicule and the termination of any further prospects in Pakistan. They hadn’t admitted a defeat even when ninety-thousand soldiers had surrendered to India in what had once been East Pakistan in 1971. They even celebrated the loss of land in 1965 to India as victory day in the country. And the humiliation of Kargil and Siachen were ignored or passed on to civilian government scapegoats. Under such a culture of repression, it was surprising to say the least when the top general in the country admitted a defeat in candor such as this.

Hussein continued, taking Haider’s silence to indicate that he was listening: “They have taken the entire stretch of land from the border all the way to the Indus river near the town. The 1ST Armored Division has been destroyed. So have several Infantry divisions. They have chopped our control of the country into several pieces. The northern forces are now fighting independently of the southern forces. And units west of the river are being funneled into thanks to the river and the complete traffic chaos on only highways west of the river that we control!”
“But we can still move forces across the river?” Haider asked. His mind was working in overdrive now. “And the concentration of our forces in the north means that we do not have to worry about the Rahim Yar Khan capture as being overly strategic in…”

“Isn’t it though?” Hussein interrupted. “Do you know that the Balochis are using this as the important time to launch their own drive for independence? How are we to move forces into the area when the Indians are making strategic movement impossible?!”

“Right,” Haider said after a couple seconds.
“Our control on the country is hanging by a thread, Haider.” Hussein said flatly. And once again, he sounded genuine. That scared Haider a lot more than anything the Indians could do. Haider was a master of conversations, but he felt even a lieutenant out of training could see where this conversation as going. Once the country’s fate had been invoked, there were no limits on what methods they could use to defend themselves…

“And the Indians haven’t stopped even after the Lahore detonation,” Hussein continued. “If that wasn’t a clear enough sign for them about the seriousness with which we see this invasion, then nothing else will stop them. Perhaps the Mumbai atta…”

“Let me stop you right there,” Haider interrupted his commander. There was only so much he would be caught speaking over a comms line. He wasn’t about to hand the Indians any evidence. Not now. After a second, Haider continued: “the country’s fate is hanging in the balance, sir. We need to pull ourselves together and do what has to be done!” He let that emphasis sink in, before continuing: “and you need to get out Rawalpindi.”

After a very long minute of silence, he got his response:

“Yes.”

It was the most chilling one word reply Haider had ever heard. In it carried the acceptance of fate. His own fate and that of his country. Acceptance of his past actions. And a certain determination to see it through. All summed up in one word over the military comms.

Both men knew what had to happen now.

The link cut off. Haider looked at his phone as though it had offended him in a deep way. But really it was his reflexes kicking in while the mind processed what his immediate next steps needed to be.

“Sir?” The radioman said as Haider handed him the phone. But Haider was already in his self-preservation mode. He grabbed his helmet, sidearm holster and pushed the scared radioman aside as he walked out the door.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Shanmukh » 15 Jan 2015 22:52

Fantastic writing, Vivek Ahuja-ji. I am not generally into military fiction, but I will buy your book when it comes out.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Chinmayanand » 17 Jan 2015 00:54

So, Jarnail Hussain to get out of Pindi through rakitmard or jakitmard ? :|

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Rahul M » 17 Jan 2015 10:13

moar ! you can't leave us hanging at this juncture !

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby member_28932 » 17 Jan 2015 14:31

vivek_ahuja wrote:
vila wrote:Vivek Sir,

Why the Indian Apaches didn't attack the Paki Cobras and Jags or Mig 27 attack the paki armour with cluster ammo? Wouldn't it be more convenient?


Ideally, yes. That is correct, as I have also stated in the scenario:

vivek_ahuja wrote:Sending fixed wing aircraft after low-flying helicopters was an iffy business. The best counter for an attack helicopter was another attack helicopter. Especially in terrain where the attackers could stay out of range of the defending ground forces and their organic anti-air capabilities. Ideally, the Indian Apache gunships would have gone after the Pakistani Cobras, but they were already moving into positions to play hell with the inbound T-80 columns…


But the issue here was the time factor. The Apaches and Cobras move much slower than the fixed wing aircraft. Considering when and where the Cobras were detected, there wasn't much time to send the Apaches after them. By the time they would have reached within range of the Cobras, the latter would already have been hammering Rhino tanks on the N-5.

The Mig-27s could interject faster, but were obviously much less suited for the task, as you have noted.

The Apaches at the time were also kitted out with Hellfires rather than for the air-to-air role. Considering that we only have (or would have) only a few dozen Apaches for the entire massive frontline with Pakistan, there wouldn't be the luxury of keeping some on standby waiting for an air-to-air threat to show up. Their only usage in the air-to-air scenario would be if they encountered enemy helicopters while already executing some other mission.


Viver Sir,

Isn't it a good idea to bring in Hawk trainer aircrfat to counter Pakistani Choppers in anti chopper role of operation?
I think that IA has earmarked them for some limited operation role in the time of conflict.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 17 Jan 2015 21:30

Vipul Dave wrote:Viver Sir,

Isn't it a good idea to bring in Hawk trainer aircrfat to counter Pakistani Choppers in anti chopper role of operation?
I think that IAF has earmarked them for some limited operation role in the time of conflict.


Limited role, perhaps. But not highly-fluid network-centric warfare. The Hawks have neither the avionics, endurance or performance to go toe-to-toe with fast-moving flights of aircraft under the direction of AWACS. Trying to find enemy helicopter-gunships at night over enemy soil is not their forte.

If they are marked for combat, it will be against static ground targets or some slow-moving targets like tank columns or supply convoys. And even then, it would have to be a pretty dire situation in the war for these to be brought forward.

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 17 Jan 2015 21:32

Image

INDIAN AEROSPACE COMMAND
BANGALORE
DAY 3 + 0055 HRS


Malhotra sipped what must have been his sixteenth cup of coffee for the past forty-eight hours. He sipped from the steaming cup and took warmth from the cup as he wrapped his wrists around it. He always felt cold inside the operations center no matter how much artificial climate control they did in there.

There was a light knock on the door. Sinha knew who that was.
“Come on in!” He said and then took another sip.

Sinha walked into his office with his own cup and a smile. Noting the cup in Malhotra’s hands, he raised his own cup as a sign of ‘misery loves company’ and then took the seat opposite the desk.
“Couldn’t sleep?” Sinha asked as he glanced at the blanket and pillows on the small couch in the office.

“Could you?” Malhotra replied. “Especially with all this going on? My body wouldn’t let me sleep. Hell. We don’t need sleep to see nightmares, my friend. We are living through one of the worst ones!”
Sinha nodded at that: “An exact summary of our woes!”

Malhotra smile faintly, but even that gesture seemed to be against his body’s seemingly perpetual inertia to scowl instead. After all, the voice said, what was there to smile about? You sit in your office and drink coffee while men and women are dying by the hundred every hour out there…

“What’s the analysis on the Lahore detonation looking like?” He asked, getting back to business.
“Pakistani warhead as far as we can tell,” Sinha replied. “No inbound missile or an aircraft delivery. That thing was driven over to the city and detonated on the ground. All according to our initial assumptions. Our young civilian experts from the DRDO are putting the numbers together.”

“So the ba$tards did it to themselves,” Malhotra said as he stared at the desk. And then shook his head. “Maybe they were offering us a way out?”
“Or maybe they were showing us how serious they are,” Sinha said grimly. “A message perhaps. Plus it halted our offensive on the city, so they gained something out of it.”
“I still can’t believe it though,” Malhotra replied. “The Chinese tried doing it to us when they were about to lose the war. It was lucky for us that we detected it when we did. And Pakistan is no China, sure, but three days? A week if you include our strikes in Kashmir? That’s how low their threshold was?”

“Remember,” Sinha said as he lowered his cup, “that their urban centers are far closer to the front lines than what the Chinese had. All China had to lose was face and perhaps some desolate land in the mountains. But the Pakistanis are having their entire country split in pieces thanks to this war. So of course the threshold is lower.”
Malhotra nodded. “You know, I…”

The office door slammed open as one of the air-force wing-commanders from the operations center ran in: “Sir, trouble. One of our radar birds just detected the launch of two ballistic missiles from one of the Pak army locations near Mianwali that we monitor!”

“My god!” Malhotra said as he pushed back his chair and moved around the desk. All three men ran out into the operations center. The giant screen in the center of the room was centered around the monochrome image of a dissipating white smoke cloud on the ground and an arcing white trajectory rising from that source. The indents on the side of the screen showed that the feed was live and also showed coordinates of the location as well as the orbital parameters of the satellite involved.

Malhotra turned to the operations staff: “Who all have been notified?”

“Our Phalcon aircraft over Punjab detected the object as it climbed above horizon. StratForCom has been notified and they have sent out a threat warning to all commanders and the government!”
“Where the hell is it going?” Sinha asked. Malhotra turned back at the screen and saw the orientation of the arcing column relative to the compass.

South!” He said louder than he realized. “South of Mianwali. What the heck is south of there? Mumbai? Some city in Gujarat?”

“StratForCom thinks it is a shorter ranged Shaheen-I missile, sir.” The wing-commander replied. “It doesn’t have the range for Mumbai or any city in Gujarat for that matter.”
“Rajasthan?” Sinha wondered. “But why only two missiles? Why aren’t they just launching their primary strike across the board?”

“Shit!” Malhotra said as he realized what the intended target was.

“Rahim Yar Khan.”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Chinmayanand » 17 Jan 2015 22:13

Sirji , at this juncture you should lob a volley of posts . One is not enough.
Image

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vasu raya » 17 Jan 2015 22:52

Hmmm, since Vivek decided to not cross the Lakshman Rekha as far as weapons/assets fielded go and only rely on materialized hardware, does that mean warning on launch sats are there and if they aren't RF based, they are IR and missile finger printing capability is there or perhaps profiled later while the missile in flight by the RF sensors from AEW assets? while nuke detonation signature take days to analyse?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 18 Jan 2015 02:43

Vasu and a few others have raised some valid questions and remarks. This might be a good place to address them:

vasu raya wrote:since Vivek decided to not cross the Lakshman Rekha as far as weapons/assets fielded go and only rely on materialized hardware


I start every scenario with a solid timeline and set of rules. These help define the rough year of the scenario and hence allow me to "freeze" the status of the hardware in the Indian and opposing-forces. These are then stretched towards their logical usage and the results played out.

That said, the timeline also allows the writer to take baby steps beyond what is currently deployed and play with new and emerging technologies in limited roles (suited with the status of the hardware at the time).

For example, in Chimera, the following hardware was played with:
1. The technology-demonstrator LCHs forced into the high-altitude role whilst still in testing.
2. Use of Heron UAVs in a ISR network
3. The CABS AEW making small appearances as picket-fence systems
4. Mi-26s in use as their status was in 2007-2009 time-frame (i.e. 4 choppers).
5. Agni-III deployed and used.
6. Rudra helicopters deployed for SOCOM uses.
7. Vikramaditya used in naval operations.
8. Arjun Mk-1 being used in ground operations.
9. LCA not present yet. Arihant still in trials. Agni-V not deployed. Indians lacking ASAT and ballistic-missile defenses, barely two-three usable satellites. etc.

...and so on for about half-dozen other systems. Then, in Fenix, we move forward by a few years. So now we have:

1. Arjun Mk-2 with the integrated battlefield-management systems
2. LCH in much more common usage and Apaches inducted.
3. CABS AEW taking front-line positions alongside Phalcons
4. Arihant operating in the seas.
5. Mi-26 almost phased out and no longer used.
6. IL-76 phased out for the most part and replaced with C-17s.
7. C-130Js now commonly used.
8. LCA mk-1 in use from the first IAF squadron (No. 45 "Daggers")
9. Increased ballistic-missile defenses, more RISAT satellites etc.

The overall idea is to play with new technologies, but not go overboard with their timelines.

vasu raya wrote:does that mean warning on launch sats are there


No, they aren't. What we have is dual-use RISAT birds that can be tasked to keep an eye on probable launch sites. And even they are only handful in number. Detection by these birds comes down on luck.

vasu raya wrote:perhaps profiled later while the missile in flight by the RF sensors from AEW assets?


Yes. The missiles are detected by the Phalcon radar (over the international border at the time) as they climbed above the horizon. The RISAT birds just confirmed the launch after the missiles had already left the ground.

vasu raya wrote:while nuke detonation signature take days to analyse?


In the scenario, the Indians already know it was a Pakistani warhead in Lahore. But at the moment, revealing information to the world is redundant given the chain of events that have happened since, no?

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 18 Jan 2015 02:46

Image

ASIDE THE AIRPORT ROAD
SOUTHWEST OF RAHIM YAR KHAN
DAY 3 + 0105 HRS


The combat-engineers whistled as they climbed aboard the Arjun tank to inspect the battle damage Kulkarni and his crew had suffered over the past two days of combat. It was also the first time Kulkarni and his fellow crewmembers were seeing what the outside of their tank looked like in its entirety. And Kulkarni had to admire the vehicle for not only being able to move, but also be operational, given then condition it was in.

Just from observation Kulkarni could see the scorch marks and dents to the armor plating on the turret. The point where the sabot round from the enemy Al-Zarrar tank had hit the composite armor plate was completely blackened and a crater gouged out within the plate. The turret top was a mess of broken antennae, bent machine-gun, damaged and blackened optics and equipment. The rest of the chassis was covered in grime and soot. The original desert-brown camo paint was scorched off at several points. A lot of dents from impacts of debris from explosions, shrapnel and small arms rounds…

Kulkarni ran his hand through his hair as it all sank in. He felt he owed this vehicle his life. He should have been dead a dozen times already by the look of the damage he saw. The three other damaged tanks parked in a column behind him fared no better. The infantry men were already calling it the “The Sardargarh ambush” and word had spread of what the combined 43RD and 75TH Armored regiments had accomplished on Pakistani soil during the last two days. But for Kulkarni and his crew, it had been forty-eight hours of hell.

“So how does it look?” Kulkarni asked as the engineering officer jumped off the chassis on to the road. The man glanced at the tank again and shook his head.

“Sir, I don’t know what to tell you. This baby here is out of the fight. The main gun and the co-ax machinegun are operational, but I would not recommend taking this vehicle back into the line.”
Kulkarni crossed his arms: “So what the hell do you recommend we do, major? Have it towed back to our side of the border? Is there a replacement tank hiding behind your trucks I should know about? Hmm?” Kulkarni let the engineering Major stand there for several seconds with the rhetorical question. He then winced as the pain spiked from the emergency stitches to his forehead gash. He turned back to the engineering team a few seconds later: “just fix what you can. Especially the ABAMS equipment. After that we are taking the vehicle back to the highway.”

“Yes, sir.”

“Good.” Kulkarni clambered up the chassis to go pick up his rifle and some food he had laying on his seat inside the turret. From the top of this sixty ton machine, plus his own six feet, he could see a long distance. He was also a perfect target for a sniper right then. But he couldn’t care less. The war was making him complacent, he told himself.
The massive white flashes caught them all by surprise.

The entire night sky was replaced with the light of two manmade suns. The blackness of the night was instantly transformed into what felt like bright daylight for several seconds…
Kulkarni spotted the flashes to his east and west. The balls of light and flame were rising into the skies above now. His mind processed the explosions and he knew that the Pakistanis had struck with a nuclear warhead on the highway blockade point north and west of where he was. They had also struck the breach point on the border where the Indian army had expanded its invasion of the Pakistani desert.

His first thought was for his men in and around the city. But his second thought pertained to the expanding shockwaves approaching him from the explosion on the western edge of the town. He turned to face the crew and saw that they were already clambering aboard the tank. The combat engineers were running for their vehicles too. But there was no time.

Kulkarni jumped into his hatch and closed the top just as the shockwaves ran through the clearing on the road like an invisible rock wall travelling at high speed. The thunderclap was ear shattering and it rolled over all the parked vehicles and slammed the hatch shut behind Kulkarni with an unnatural force.

The blackness enveloped him and his crew as the world outside sounded like a cacophony of thunder, clanging noises and the whooshing noise of dust traveling at very high speeds…

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 18 Jan 2015 02:47

Image

INDIAN AEROSPACE COMMAND
BANGALORE
DAY 3 + 0115 HRS


Malhotra put his arm behind his head as the entire staff at the operations center watched the two mushroom clouds erupting east and west of Rahim Yar Khan. Unlike for Kulkarni and his unfortunate men, the men and women in the operations room of the Aerospace Command in Bangalore had a silent, clinically detached view of the whole event. They watched as the two nuclear detonations announced the death of a Pakistani town and hundreds, perhaps thousands of Indian and Pakistani soldiers. The detonations also announced to the world the end of the Indian conventional military offensive in the Pakistani desert…and the start of the nuclear one.

Malhotra shared a look with Sinha and his eyes said it all: there was no holding it back now.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby member_22539 » 18 Jan 2015 10:00

^**** Yeah! Glass the b@stards.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Anand K » 18 Jan 2015 11:43

So what's our next move? TSP military targets? Like the 6th Armored in an already (self) nuked Lahore and at close proximity to Indian forces or something like Kahuta/Chasma? Major staging areas and juicy massed targets wouldn't be available at this stage of the war, no? Unless we're going to satisfy the public with nuking a near empty Chaklala or Sargodha?

So...... to inflict real pain will the Yindoos raise the stakes and nuke the cities? Or destroy the major barrages and dams that would mess up Punjab and Sindh (and disrupt water scenario of Baluchistan also) for a few decades at least? What about the 3.5 and the oil Sheikhs? We had some interesting discussions in the Deterrence dhaaga sometime back about the Paki tactical FU....

PS: Pleej indulge one perhaps pertinent post of mine in that dhaaga.... :)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Akshay Kapoor » 18 Jan 2015 14:04

Vivek,

Combat Engrs are Corps of Engrs or Sappers who do mine removal, bridging , mining , demolitions etc. The engrs above in your post are the EME ! Sappers are an arm and EME is a service. You need to correct that.

Sappers also play an infantry role and are often first in battled and last to leave. Sappers also used to lead republic day marching contingents for this reason till early 2000s because of this reason. Btw Eastern Army Commander Lt Gen MMS Rai is a Bombay Sapper.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby nash » 18 Jan 2015 16:01

I guess whatever military installation remain in Pakiland will go, especially silos.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Nitesh » 18 Jan 2015 16:26

Could Akash might have prevented this, if it could have been traveling all along?

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vila » 18 Jan 2015 20:13

Vivek Sir,

The indian response before Sunday ends. Pleaseee.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby jamwal » 18 Jan 2015 22:01

Nitesh wrote:Could Akash might have prevented this, if it could have been traveling all along?


Ballistic missiles travel too fast for Akash kind of SAMs.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Anand K » 18 Jan 2015 23:07

If we had good Boost-Phase and Ascent Phase interception capabilities we could respond to such threats.... to a degree :). Nobody can saturate the area enough to stop every Shaheendong rising from a camo'ed site in the Salt Ranges or something. Even if we somehow do that there's Hong-Baburniaos with nuke warheads poking out of tunnels and warehouses.....

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Chinmayanand » 19 Jan 2015 00:06

Looks like the Indian Cabinet can not decide whether to launch their so called " massive retaliation" on the peaceful and secular people next door. Till then , here is the jingo response

Image

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vasu raya » 19 Jan 2015 01:03

Thanks Vivek, believe there is as much to propaganda as well

only wish Kulkarni had his 'brace brace' moment with an emergency call from the far off observers than realizing it from the flash. Guess, damaged tanks aren't NBC proof.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Jan 2015 06:20

Akshay Kapoor wrote:Combat Engrs are Corps of Engrs or Sappers who do mine removal, bridging , mining , demolitions etc. The engrs above in your post are the EME ! Sappers are an arm and EME is a service. You need to correct that.


Good catch, Akshay. I have corrected it for the manuscript of Fenix.

I found a few other references in the novel that made the mistake of calling the EME engineers as combat-engineers. I have corrected them.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Jan 2015 06:23

Image

SKIES ABOVE PUNJAB
DAY 3 + 0125 HRS


"We have objects climbing above the horizon!”

That grim shout caused Verma to turn away from the comms console he had been monitoring. He ran over to the radar operators and bent down to look over the shoulders. The operators quickly glanced at who was behind them and then pointed to intermittent radar tracks on screen.

“Radar caught these objects as they climbed high into the atmosphere and came up above our horizon,” the lead operator said. Verma knew what this was.

“Pass the intercept information to StratForCom operations. Now!” He patted the operator on the back before turning to the comms console: “get a flash warning out to all the usual suspects! We have a Pakistani primary nuclear strike underway! We have missiles leaving the atmosphere and heading to targets!”

He also muttered a “god help us” when no one was looking.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 19 Jan 2015 06:24

Image

SKIES ABOVE MADHYA-PRADESH
DAY 3 + 0130 HRS


"Oh my god!”

Ravoof ignored the prime-minister’s reflex response as he pushed back his chair and ran over to a phone on the side of the room. He knew the number he was dialing. After several seconds, he heard a familiar voice:
“Basu here.”

“You need to get of New-Delhi! Now!” Ravoof said loud enough for everyone in the room to turn their heads.
“That’s not happening, my friend,” Basu replied calmly. “I can’t just run and leave my people here. You know that.”

Ravoof rubbed his hand against his forehead, but he understood. Even so, his instinct to save his loyal friend was overriding his logical reasoning…
“Besides,” Basu continued, “we have our anti-ballistic missile-defenses around the city waiting to knock the enemy missiles out of the skies. We will be fine. Just you watch!”
Ravoof could only admire the man for his calmness in the face of immediate danger: “you do know that the defenses might not be enough,” Ravoof said in a voice that was beginning to crack. “The Pakistanis have focused a good portion of their missiles against…”

“If they do get through,” Basu interrupted, “then so be it. Just make sure to finish what they started. Don’t let them get away with this. And you need to be there to help guide the others. Don’t worry about on old man who has lived his life to the fullest. Worry about the ones whose entire future hangs in the balance…” he paused a second for emphasis, “and in the decisions you will now have to take.”

“Goodbye, old friend.” Ravoof said with whatever courage he could muster. “I will see you when this is all over!”
“Absolutely.” The line clicked off.

Ravoof turned to see the room in chaos. The military commanders on the screens began the solemn process of walking the civilian leadership through the retaliatory nuclear strike scenario. A target list showed up on the screen with the type and number of missiles that will be targeted against them. Ravoof saw the list include every major city, town, airbase and port in Pakistan listed in there. He also saw the type and size of nuclear warheads that would be detonated over them. Once this was completed, there would be no Pakistan left to speak of…

He walked back to his chair absentmindedly, as though in a daze. For what was happening now, his input was hardly needed. The military commanders from the StratForCom were already walking the prime-minister and the senior service commanders on how this would play out. The only thing he heard among all of that was when the general commanding the StratForCom interrupted the nuclear counterstrike briefing:

“the anti-missile batteries around New-Delhi have begun engaging targets!”

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby shaun » 19 Jan 2015 07:08

finish off those bakis ..we know they too read this thread , it will give them an idea where things can escalate if they bring the nuclear bluff ...finish off those bakis !! ...F5 , F5 ....

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vila » 19 Jan 2015 11:09

Vivek Sir,

As in your Chimera you are little liberal with nukes I must say. Do you feel the world will watch passively? Two documents for general refernce.

http://www.slideshare.net/27Nav/nuclear-faminereport

http://www.slideshare.net/27Nav/climati ... -conflicts

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby parshuram » 19 Jan 2015 15:44

pandyan wrote:Somehow in the previous novel, sfc launched a premptive conventional strike against chinese atom bums that was getting ready for launch. Somehow it appears that this time around, india didnt takecare of this threat. Overall a massive failure on indian side
I concur Moreover Pakistanis have already launched in lahore and knew that it was a stop gap measure . What was Indian Side Waiting for? To be hit first.... . As Soon as Lahore went crimson . We should have launched with Full Force ...

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Anand K » 19 Jan 2015 16:46

^^

That's the stated Massive Retaliation stance anyway. But then maybe we blinked first....
Anyway, can't wait for the next installment - and the E-book release.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Chinmayanand » 19 Jan 2015 18:47

I wonder how many paki ding-dongs flying towards India end up like ping-pongs on baki soil ... how many of them will land in Karachi instead of Delhi ... :lol: After all there are too many manchurian components involved with jinn technology

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Khalsa » 20 Jan 2015 00:39

Vivek

when is the book due on Amazon my friend ? (exact date if you don't mind)

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Jan 2015 04:57

Khalsa wrote:when is the book due on Amazon my friend ? (exact date if you don't mind)


Saar, Fenix is fully edited and ready. As with Chimera, I am trying some frontline publishers first to see if they will pick it up. We will know in the next week or two. If the big-five publishers deny it again, I will push it through amazon and we will have it out first week of February.

parshuram wrote:
pandyan wrote:Somehow in the previous novel, sfc launched a premptive conventional strike against chinese atom bums that was getting ready for launch. Somehow it appears that this time around, india didnt takecare of this threat. Overall a massive failure on indian side
I concur Moreover Pakistanis have already launched in lahore and knew that it was a stop gap measure . What was Indian Side Waiting for? To be hit first.... . As Soon as Lahore went crimson . We should have launched with Full Force ...


So to add to this discussion:

There is a fundamental difference between the early-warning detection of missile launch preparations between the Chinese and the Pakistanis. And the issue is the geography and terrain. For the Chinese, missiles based in Tibet are visible. Easily so. This is because of the barren terrain in the mountains. No forests. No widespread urbanization, roads, etc. Missile detachments stand out like a sore thumb. Add to that the Chinese have a very centralized missile command structure and ORBAT. Units in the field work together both for security purposes as well as organizational efficiency. All of these factors help make detection and identification of their missile forces in Tibet easier.

But the Pakistanis have the advantage of concealment and decentralization. Given the massively urban forests, mountains, roads, towns, villages and cities, plus their decentralized missile-launch organizations, the opposing force needs a LOT more detection tools to be able to preempt a primary strike. You could possible detect SOME missiles on the ground. But not all. And India, with its handful of satellites, can only do so much against such a hidden enemy.

Add to this the issue of the Indian government culture. Has there been a single Indian government in history that has even appeared mentally able to launch a preemptive first strike when conclusive evidence of the enemy primary strike might be missing?

In the scenario, the Indian government would have launched missiles right after the strike on Rahim Yar Khan. So that was anyway bound to happen. The Pakistani primary strike immediately after the strike on Rahim Yar Khan is pretty redundant on the issue of Indian retaliation, no?

-Vivek

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Jan 2015 05:00

Image

UPPER ATMOSPHERE
OVER THE INDIAN SUBCONTINENT
DAY 3 + 0140 HRS


The first Pakistani missiles to arc over and dive down into the skies above India had been under track by the ballistic-missile defenses deployed around the major cities in India. A literal web of massive, ultra-long-range radars tracked dozens of inbound missiles diving into India.

These radars sent their information to a series of missile batteries that stored the kinetic-kill missiles designed to hit and destroy inbound enemy missiles in a direct collision. For the last five years, the Indian military had been placing increasing numbers of these missiles, launchers, radars and equipment for just such an eventuality as this. Even so, the numbers of missiles required for an effective defense of even a single city meant that the coverage was limited to the major cities. But as things stood, the worst case scenario for the requirement of this defense had been realized far before the defenses had been deployed countrywide…

As the first of the Pakistani Ghauri-II missiles entered Indian airspace above New-Delhi, several of them were shattered out of the skies in violent explosions. The exo-atmospheric counter-missile missiles went into action. Two of the warheads were skimmed by their intended bullets from below and sent off track, heading down, but not on the city.

For every one warhead that was being struck down or deflected, several more were making it past the defenses. Within seconds it was clear to the StratForCom commanders that the Pakistanis had launched a bulk of their long-range missiles against New-Delhi. It was a tactic of attempting to overwhelm the defenses by launching more missiles than the defenders could stop. In this case, the Pakistanis had launched thirty-one of their Ghauri-II missiles against New-Delhi. There was no way to tell whether all of them carried nuclear warheads or whether some were conventional meant to be decoys. Nuclear warheads are costlier than the missiles they are carried on.

On the other hand, Hussein and his commanders could not hope to have a lot of decoys in the off chance that only the decoys made it through. So a sizeable chunk of the inbound warheads had to be nuclear. Considering that the entire Pakistani arsenal of nuclear weapons was less than one hundred warheads, this was a sizeable chunk. On the Indian side, they had to treat each missile as nuclear. All in all, eight warheads were struck out of the sky by the first layer of exo-atmospheric defenses.

As the remaining twenty-three Ghauri-II warheads began heating up within the atmosphere, the next layer of defenses went into play. The endo-atmospheric missiles slammed into twelve targets within seconds, littering the skies northwest of New-Delhi with flaming pieces of debris that glittered like stars in the night sky. The remaining interceptor missiles hit another seven targets a dozen kilometers above the city.

By this time it was too late to stop the others.

The last four warheads flew past the expended defenses and struck New-Delhi…

Further south, a similar game of destruction was under way above Mumbai, Pune and Bangalore. Twelve missiles each targeted against the three major metropolitan centers of India were considered enough by the Pakistani high command, given that the defenses around those cities were less intensive than the ones around New-Delhi. Added to that was the limited size of the Shaheen-II missile arsenal that the Pakistanis had to play with. Twelve missiles against each of those cities was all they could spare.

In a crude twist of irony, the defenses of Mumbai held up against the threat for which the city had been prepared, even though northern Mumbai lay abandoned after the terrorist strike. All twelve missiles targeted against the city were destroyed. The batteries around Pune managed to do the same. Bangalore eliminated nine of the missiles aimed at it. But as was the sad truth with nuclear warfare, even a single missile was one too many to pass through the defenses.

Other cities with no defenses at all had no chance. Most of the major cities in Punjab, Rajasthan and Gujarat were struck with one or more warheads and destroyed in a series of airborne detonations…

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby vivek_ahuja » 20 Jan 2015 05:00

Image

The Indian counter-response was far more devastating.

Indian missiles had massive range and were stationed well beyond the reach of Pakistani missiles. And the Pakistanis had no defenses against such an attack. The Indians could strike virtually any target they wished. And right now their list included every location greater in size than a village.

As Indian Agni missiles left the ground for their targets, all Indian aircraft and helicopters vacated the skies over Pakistan. The Indian forces near potential targets were already evacuating under emergency conditions.

The Indian warheads flew a clear and unopposed trajectory to their targets. Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Karachi, Peshawar, Skardu, Multan and half a dozen other cities disappeared under nuclear detonations within the first strike. What was left of eastern Lahore was also struck again. The barrage of missiles struck all major military airbases and ports. By the time the third barrage hit tertiary targets, much of Pakistan was already dotted with dusty mushroom clouds. The entire country had been devastated in under an hour…

By that time, the Indian military was coordinating with the StratForCom commanders for the liberal use of tactical battlefield nuclear weapons. The price for their usage had been paid in the blood of a hundred million civilians on both sides. But General Potgam’s orders to his commanders were clear: they were to lay waste any clustering of military targets until none remained.

There was to be no phoenix rising out of these ashes of Pakistan.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby sunilUpa » 20 Jan 2015 05:14

Great story telling...

Pakistan is an expendable pawn of Umma....don't forget that.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Cain Marko » 20 Jan 2015 06:12

Whoosh...all gone in hours....Vivek saab ab rakha hi kya hai to talk about? Stunning Storytelling.Ayyo what a nightmare scenario ji, wonlee eastern and south India may produce some crops for the next many decades. Kolkata is new capital of India again, or is it Hyderabad (if it was spared) or Chennai. Taubaa tauba what of race to be super power and what not hainji? what about make in India? What about aman ki asha? What about Cheeni invading? Or have we still got some deterrence left?

Worst part is that the scenario seems inevitable and that too not too far off in the ffuture the rate at which tsp is going to pot and the debacle that has been the GOI for decades.

Well at least Sauron will never rise again, back to older map of India, wot? Altbough I doubt Pakistan will be habitable for long time to come much like Mordor and Minas Morgul. Now all we need is the return of the king....time for India of yore to flower again, price has been unthinkable, hopefully the rot in the system will also pass away with the cities that it festered in.

Sure hope Pathanya and his boys or Ansari and them bring back That Haider harami, put him to trial and make him confess everything.

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Re: Possible Indian Military Scenarios - XIII

Postby Rahul M » 20 Jan 2015 08:12

this is why I have always maintained that we should have a full scale task force dedicated to real time tracking of all paki warheads and delivery vehicles. easier said than done but it is a must.


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