Possible Indian Military Scenarios - Part I

[Rudradev]

S^2, could you please explain the following terms/acronyms from General Naresh's communique

1) RRF (is it Rapid Reaction Force?)
2) FORTRAN
3) Boyd loop
4) CAPs (as in "saturate the air with CAPs".)

[ramana]

r,
1) RRF (is it Rapid Reaction Force?)

Yes. The PLA rapid deployment force is called RRF.

2) FORTRAN
Should be FORTAN- Fortress Andaman & Nicobar. Thats the official name for the Indian military presence there.
3) Boyd loop
This refers to the Air power doctrine developed by Col Boyd of the USAF. It mainly concentrates on destroying the enemy's air power assets to bring about the overall victory. Eg. Desert Storm etc.

4) CAPs (as in "saturate the air with CAPs".)
Combat Air Patrol (CAP)

Hope this was useful.

[Sunil]

Ramana,

thanks for the correction. It should be FORTAN.

The Boyd Loop, i think refers to the Observation, Orientation, Decision, Action (OODA) loop. The idea was first used in the context of an Air War. It dealt with ways in which to sketch out the enemy's response to a provocation and then to slip below it.

I have used this very nuanced idea in the most general sense. I don't think my usage is technically correct but I want to stick the general notion in there that there are things that on timescales below the ability of GoI to respond.

[Guest]

In the last four days, Arun Shourie has been writing big articles in the Indian Express on illegal Bangladeshi migration into India, These include:

Part 1:
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story ... t_id=56631

Part 2:
http://www.indianexpress.com/archive_fu ... t_id=56693

Part 3:
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story ... t_id=56727

Part 4:
http://www.indianexpress.com/full_story ... t_id=56779

MTS's scenario is already hitting the headlines.

[Mandeep]

The Indian military presence in the Bay of Bengal islands is the ANC - Andamans & Nicobar Command.

[Sunil]

Thanks Mandeep, I completely forgot that.

Hi,

Here is the reply from Sri. Karunakaran to Gen. Naresh.

NSCS-NSAB 19000930/DCA/CS/TS/C

*****TOP SECRET*****
******COSMIC*******

To:
Maj. Gen. (r) J. P. Naresh
Dy. Convenor (NSAB)
NSCS

Dear Sir,

Thank you for your prompt response. My comments follow;

1) Discussions with the embassy in Beijing reveal a sense of ambivalence among PLA leadership towards a conflict with India. It may be that this ambivalence masks hostile intentions but also there is a sense of confidence that India will be deterred against a military intervention by a show of strength. Interlocuters in several countries have indicated through track II that PRC does not intend to support hostile military actions against India. An intermediary is reported to have stated "We are merely out there to stabilize the Bangladeshi political system which is in danger of being overwhelmed by corruption. Our presence there will induce a sense of security critical to ensuring that Bangladesh doesn't degenerate into chaos." Such assertions ofcourse should in my opinion be taken at face value.

2) There is also considerable happiness in the mainland esp. among the press in four major military regions that the PLA has finally come of age. This is building a sense of positive commitment towards the PLA and its role in the leadership of China. The press in Shanghai has been publishing panegyrics on the PLA leadership and the commending the Chairman of the CMC for his "bold and decisive role". While it cannot be said if the people of China really care about Bangladesh, it is certain that a success in Bangladesh is being projected as sign of the PLA's maturity. I feel this is a valid point, if indeed the PLA can deploy a sizable expeditionary force across a thousand or so miles of ocean, then indeed the security of Taiwan is called to question.

3) I am in agreement with the description that you have provided of the ladder of escalation. I propose that we define the word "pre-emption" in a limited sense as being the ability to impose a step up in escalation ladder. I realize that this is a step away from the definitions currently in vogue post 9-11 but it is a far more context senstive usage of the word, that I feel correctly reflects a deeper meaning. If the pre-emption is well nuanced, it should not disturb the over all ladder of escalation only force the PRC to jump to some point in it where they do not want to climb any higher but don't want to climb down either. This could in principle damp out the escalatory potential in the situation and freeze the PRC's plans.

4) A "freezeout" of the escalatory potential of the situation will then automatically create a way out of the escalation.

If you are in general agreement with the overall thrust here. I suggest we meet for lunch for further discussions. I have attached a series of preliminaries for reference in the appendix.

Yours Sincerely
M. K. K. Karunakaran
Addl. Secy. (NSCS)
Dept. of Cabinet Affairs
Cabinet Sectt.

Appendix 1.
***** Security Deletion *****

[Singha]

My first phase of cabinet discussions on Vajra shall be posted tomorrow night. It will discuss among other things the preliminary military plan and the complex set of moving goalposts it must address, the nuclear dimension given the Maulana's demo will also be discussed at some length.

It is assumed that these letter discussions have taken place between the teams in the runup to my CCS meeting.

[Kakkaji]

Great thread Rudra!

One humble suggestion. As you write the further chapters of this conflict, please do not make it Tom Clancy/ Alisair McLean type where, after the initial shock, the good guys take hardly any wrong steps whereas the bad guys make one mistake after the other.

[Denis]

PM reviews nuclear command structure
Indo-Asian News Service
New Delhi, January 24


Prime Minister Arora chaired a meeting of India's Nuclear Command Authority in New Delhi on Thursday to review all aspects of the country's nuclear capabilities. The meeting took stock of the command and control structures that are in place, an official statement said. The Nuclear Command Authority also approved measures to sustain the country's nuclear and missile capabilities within the relevant principles of its nuclear doctrine, the statement added.

Under the two-layered structure of the Nuclear Command Authority, established in 2003 for the management of nuclear weapons, the PM heads the political council while the national security advisor chairs its executive council. The political council has the sole authority to authorise the use of nuclear weapons while the executive council provides inputs for decision-making, and executes the directives given to it by the political council.

Though the official announcement emphasised that this was a routine regular meeting of the command authority and was not in response to anything, the recent events inIndia's neighbourhood seemed to be the prime motivator of the meeting.

In the evening, a press conference was called at the South block on the subject.

"Naturally, we discuss, deliberate, take into account and plan for all the events that may have an impact on our security. That is what we are supposed to do." was the cryptic reply given by the NSA Mr. Salgotra when our correspondent asked him whether the the recent events
in Bangladesh formed a backdrop to the command authority meeting.

Answering some correspondents criticism whether this meeting may lead to crisis escalation and be a destablizing act, Mr. Salgotra discounted such probability and was dismissive of such suggestions. "We have a policy of NFU. Unless our country or its armed forces are attacked by nuclear or biological or other WMDs, we would not use our nuclear option. So where is the question of escalation?"

The officials also denied that there was a link betweeen this meeting and the Cabinet committe on Security meeting that is going to take place tommorrow morning.

[Singha]

Story: The Awakening
Post: #6 " Vajra "

Jan30, 2008 . 9:10AM PM's residence

The Conclave had began ten minutes ago, the small talk over now, PM had started on the main agenda.

"It has been two weeks since our initial meeting, you have all been working on the assigned items and in individual meetings we have all discussed progress so far. An additional complexity has been introduced by the nuclear demonstration near Dhaka. We have to take that into account now.

First let us discuss who did it ? There has been no public statement from any quarter in bangladesh, it cannot be Gen Jaffar's regime because there is no reason for anyone to be handing out backpack sized devices to this untested person. The Paks and Chinese detachments could have access to chinese devices but again they have no reason to test in BD. we know their capability, there is no need attract attention for them. Our sources in Dhaka speak of a huge rally dominated by some unknown new entity known as lashkar ababeel and spoken to by a Maulana Nazrul. While eyewitness reports are very sketchy, apparently his Maulana had some advance knowledge of the device and directed the crowd to the right direction just before the explosion. Only the ISI linked terror network has the kind of access to stolen, probably russian devices, so one must assume they have indeed brought some to BD and organized this lashkar ababeel and some hardcore
maulana azhar wannabe's as the guardian of this arsenal. In keeping with past practises I dont think the BD junta and the Pak army detachment has much of handle on this 'track2 initiative'. It must be assumed if they have displayed one, another few are available in reserve.

Next comes why do it in BD and why now ? After discussions with Rao-ji and other senior officials, our consensus estimate is that the Islamists want to provoke a indian regime_change attack on BD so that they can respond with nuclear weapons, possibly on a indian city nearby under cover of self-defence.
This would ofcourse horrify the Paks and Chinese so thats why this track2 force and leadership vine has been built up. The public explosion in full view of a scheduled Alliance Air flight was timed so that we dont miss it. Yet it was in a mangrove covered delta so the locals bar a few got no news of it.
Early warning missile launch sats of the superpowers have no interest in BD, but siesmographs must have detected some signature in US stations along the far east. Not unexpectedly there has been no public reaction from the west,
no accusations. Consul Joana Hart has however been seen to hold long one-on-one meetings with Gen Jaffar in the last week. Gen Zucchini has also flown in once for a two day stay. I think the US is worried about NYC and DC being taken out but doesnt want to show any worry lines - yet. They are busy trying to make a Musharaff out of Jaffar in an attempt to 'control-n-manage' this new front. We cannot expect any help from the US in this case, they are not too concerned if Kolkata gets fried. They also know if the target was NYC, the demo would be in NYC not in Dhaka. So they have some reason to feel safe.

What have we done in response?
* we have sent no message to any western capital. An exercise in futility.
* I have telephoned the PM's of russia and israel to warn them of this definitive proof on loose nukes. as old friends they deserved that. PM Putin promised an immediate audit by the FSB on portable nukes and tracing the source and quantity of the leak. Yesterday I got a diplomatic memo via their embassy that 6 backpack sized weapons were found missing from a facility near Irkutsk in 1988. But age , wear and tear would necessitate a new explosive lens trigger - this I assume the Paks have facilitated somewhere.
* confidential AEC teams armed with geiger counters have been posted to all major cities in india. ingress points from highways, railway stations and airports are being monitored...however it is impossible to monitor all of these let alone the smaller roads. we have no way to stop a determined
mule. every day 1000s of shipping containers unload at our ports - we are not geared to inspect even 1%. A truckload of nukes could slip in and we would not know. We have stationed geiger counters at port truck exits and plan to buy truck sized X-ray machines from the Dutch soon. they use it in rotterdam.
* we are buying up additional supplies of all medicine types including for radiation sickness and storing them in army facilities near each major potential target. russia will be airlifting more such materials and sending advisors next week under cover of a medical training pgm in BARC.
* NSG-SAG teams have deployed to each big city should they be called on. Two helicopters have been kept ready at each node to ferry the teams to other places if need be.
* local police have not been informed. Media leak and tremendous public panic and financial meltdown would inevitably result.

Inspite of all this, kill estimates for a downtown 5KT explosion in a major city would be around 500,000 with another 1 million dying or very ill later from radiation.

* last, I have sent diplomatic messages to the CEO of Pak and the Gen.Secy Beijing letting them know that we detected this explosion.

I have also let them know in clear terms that though it is probable they are not in control and didnt authorize this, a terrorist nuclear attack on indian soil or indian forces anywhere would be treated as a direct nuclear attack by Pak AND China and responded to accordingly.

To beef up the message, I have authorized our missile command to mobilize and deploy all available Agni and Prithvi regiments . Photos of these have been sent to Pak and Chinese embassies yesterday. AEC cores have been transported and mated to the missiles yesterday night. We are ready to respond within 15 mins of a incident.

How do we control the chaos?
right now I expect beijing to be beating up its protege' over this incident and the Pak CEO beating up his ISI and PA underlings to get to the bottom of this little escapade.
Now whoever organized this scheme wouldnt want to lose control to the more rabid and suicidal Islamist element in the mob, so there would be another 'Track3' guy in there to report back to HQ and deal with the 'Track2' hotheads permanently if the situation warrants. Out expectation and hope is this guy manages to control for now the hotheaded elements. he will certainly have got new orders. I expect the Pak CEO himself will supply us co-ordinates if it looks like control is lost. The nukes cannot however be withdrawn easily on Pak orders without a violent confrontation with the lashkar ababeel. we feel the lashkar wouldnt mind nuking the PA foreign legion if push came to shove over control of the devices.

I know its a weak plan to depend upon the self-preservation of the Pak CEO and his ISI spies within the Islamists but thats all we can think of at the moment.

Now let us turn to Vajra the codename for proposed plan to clean up this mess. The consensus after meetings between myself, services chiefs, Sen sir, Dighe-ji, Miglani-ji has been like this:

* we need another credible BD leader before anything happens to denounce the Jaffar regime and emerge as the successor who will take over once Jaffar is flushed out. Since both the BD Madam's are under house arrest at present, we know where they are and how big the security detail is.
we will have to rescue one of them a couple of days before Vajra. on balance, we go for Begum Hasina since she is the more moderate of the two. This is a difficult op and must succeed for Vajra to proceed.

* Next we drive a cleavage between the PA and PLA elements of the foreign legion! This we do to give beijing a face saving exit strategy and not forcing them into a fight. I think their resolve to enter this mess is not high and a fight is raging in beijing over the risks of a big conflict with india - would put a dent on their FDI story for sure. to achieve this, following conditions must be met.
1. PLA formations will not be overtly attacked
2. Ships will not be blocked in the homeward direction once action begins, but will be kept in gunsights until they clear malacca.
3. our posture in arunachal and ladakh must be robust to deter any counter-pressures.

Gen Sastrys recommendation was that we take out their two Su27 squadrons and ask them to withdraw by land & sea or face annihilation of their two brigades via IAF airpower. The news will not be leaked to media. With any luck thats when their more hardcore elements will be outmanouvered in the halls of power in beijing. some face saving story they can themselves concoct or we shall create ideas for them - we are always willing to help 'friends in need' *DM Sen smiles gently*

* Chittagong has to be cleared of all PN and PLAN forces. Their warships must be brought to battle and destroyed, merchant ships to be left untouched for the one-way ticket home.

* Attempts at sending reinforcements to be blocked by western fleet and FORTAN first, finally by submarine and surface blocading force near BD as second filter.

* on the advice of Rao-ji a little addition to the plan is the destruction of three PLA ELINT stations on myanmar coast on the grounds they can track movement of indian naval forces and hence are 'combatants'. these will be obliterated to administer the 'teach a lesson' principle to PLA.

* once we see beijings resolve cracking, the PA brigades and air elements would appear on the target roster. For them there shall be no escape and no one-way ticket home unlike in 1971. A harsh lesson will be taught, Gen Sastry has promised.

* BD army will not be attacked unless they side with the PA. we need the BD army to restore order later, but islamist and pro-pak elements will be handed over to us for re-education. A camp will be established in ladakh at thoise to process these detainees away from public eye.

* indian media must be controlled and indian casualties kept light. PA, PN and PAF casualties must be widely publicized via video footage to crush morale. a special website liberationofbangladesh.org will be opened and maintained by DAVP soon as the 'limited police action' starts. this is not a war, just a intervention to restore BD to its democratic rulers.

* western media outlets will be given limited access and expelled immediately if they go against our message. infact any indescretion by say a CNN stringer will result in the ENTIRE CNN cast being booted out. this will be made clear at right time. or we might not say anything and make an example of some network.

* CCS will stay in undergound NCF (national command facility) until threat levels diminish. Airborne stations with relay to missile regiments will remain active 24x7 for duration.

* NSG-SAG and AEC will remain deployed to handle incidents. No strike or protest will be tolerated during Vajra. All NGO protesters will be put in jail for two months on bread and water.

* Madam Zia will be made to retire from politics. once we 'explain' it to her 'nicely' I am sure she will understand....madam hasina must be the only tower left standing amidst the ruins.

* with Madam hasina's 'permission', finally about 100 terrorist camps in BD would need to be erased simultaneously within H+2 Hrs of Vajra. The moment these people hear anything on radio or TV they will disperse and melt away. the number of camps being so large, we will mobilize all extant special forces, IAF FACs and strike aircraft into packages for each camp. Para regiments and helicopter qualified light infantry will also assist.
The idea is for SF/infantry to quietly slip in at night and pinpoint a camp, first wave of IAF ac loaded with Napalm and cluster attack at first light and cause max casualties, immediately thereafter more infantry must arrive and enforce a cordon of the blazing camp. If possible a second strike by IAF would finish the task, or the infantry must close in and do it.
No prisoners are to be taken, given the lack of judically admissible 'proof' in indian courts. the Bodies will be burned on the spot after photos are taken. This is an operation of mind boggling complexity, but luckily many camps are small and can be wiped off by infantry alone. This will be the deathstrike against the NE terrorists. Never again must BD be sanctuary. Bhutan and Myanmar have been cleaned up with co-operation
from their Govts in 2004 and 2005 as you know. Some failures
are certain, but hopefully their back will be broken.

* army and armour involvement must be kept minimal both
to achieve surprise and to control cost. no movement of forces
from the west and north is permissible because that would be a red flag inviting US intervention and Pak preparations.

* Known extremist hideouts in Dhaka will be targeted with 250lb guided munitions in a large attack in parallel. we have extensively studied the US ops in Falluja and Najaf of 2004 in this regard. Again civilian casualties & some misses are inevitable.

* Our conditions for placing madam as the next president of BD would be reasonable but firm
- freedom to rail and road transit traffic from the NE . corridors to be opened from meghalaya and tripura.
- purge of bad elements in BD army and hand them over to us.
- we will offer massive help to revitalize the BD police, infra,
education and industry
- FTA with india to help both BD and NE economies
- defence pact with india . if anyone attacks BD, india would be obliged to respond.
- extremist saudi funded madrasas will be closed and doors shut on saudi funded 'charities'.all foreign maulvis will be deported.
- islamist leaders will be rounded up and handed to india because jailing them within BD would only arouse more trouble

This then will be the operational objectives of Vajra. Please continue your good work. We shall be holding bi-weekly meetings now. I expect Gen Sastry will be very busy drafting the detailed operational plans next couple of weeks, you are excused from our bi-weekly meets unless we specifically need your input

Now let us have lunch and get back to work. The meeting is over"

Gen Sastry didnt stop for lunch. He departed for Vayu Bhavan immediately...an important meeting with certain air marshals and commodores' was scheduled for 4:00PM

Next: Part7 " To Kurukshetra! To Kurukshetra! - deployments "
{Edited spell FORTAN and IAF: Arun_S}

[alexis]

i am a new member.
i find this thread fascinating.
awaiting further developments

[kgoan]

Dear, X:

Thank you for the kind thoughts expressed in your recent note. I do appreciate them. Yes, my family's fine and I hope yours are as well.

And let me congratulate you on your appointment to the PMO. I hope the work isn't to stressful.

I must say, I'm rather intrigued at this academic exercise you've just set me, and on your insistence on a quick answer. And it's terribly tempting to ask you some questions and for some more information.

Without knowing anything else, this is quite tricky. So please understand that I'm writing this in a bit of vacuum, and unless I receive more information, this note is "ad hoc", within those constraints.

Anyway, to business.

You pose a remarkable little problem, I must say. Let me summarise it here so that we're absolutely sure of what is at stake:

You pose the question in two parts as follows:

Part 1
In the context of Pakistan launching a nuclear attack on India, should India make a statement that we would hold China responsible and threaten retaliation to China?

If I understand correctly, your reasoning is as follows:

The US is strongly involved within Pakistan and much has been made of statements in public about India and the US being "natural allies". Consequently, a threat of Indian retaliation towards China in retaliation for a Pakistani attack on India forces the following terror-balance:

A. The Chinese are forced to attempt to control their Pak clients better.

B. An Indian retaliation against China raising the spectre of the Chinese concluding that the US is somehow involved and may therefore retaliate against the US.

Even if the Chinese do not believe the US is directly involved, an Indian nuclear response, even if it's limited would set China back for decades. Their choice in that scenario, if they limit retaliation only to India, is to see the US maintain it's dominance in Asia for the next century and all Chinese dreams of "superpowerdom" vanish. Taiwan would be lost etc.

So the Chinese may well retaliate against the US (and possibly Japan) as well as India in a "take them down with us" scenario.

Therefore, as a result of India going "insane" after a Pak nuclear attack and attacking China, the US *may* also be held in danger of a nuclear attack from China.

Consequently, to prevent this happening the US will also be drawn to ensuring, with all possible means, that pakistan does not use nuclear weapons against Indian soil.

In essence therefore, the first part of your question is to ask whether an Indian statement of nuclear retaliation against China would force a balance of terror between India, Pakistan, China *and* the US, which in turn would force China and the US to control the Paks from launching?

Within this logic, the essence of your question is to ask whether we should make such a statement agaisnt China?

My answer is No. Under no condition whatsoever should such a statement be made. Most importantly, the Pakistanis should never know of such a statement being made. To do so guarantees the devastation of the Union.

Consider:

If Pakistan *does* launch an attack on India, then by this logic we *may* launch against China, which may launch against the US.

Neither China nor the US can afford such a risk.

Now you may argue that's precisely the point. Which is why they will control Pakistan.

Yes. But what happens if the Paks launch anyway?

Then neither the Chinese nor the US can sit back. But they will not attack Pakistan, they will attack India.

Because we are the threat to them after Pakistan launches. It's *vital* you realise that they have no choice. Once pakistan launches, and given our stated intent to retaliate against China, both will act to prevent a nuclear attack agaisnt themselves.

And they can only guarantee that via a full scale combined nuclear attack against India.

Understand this: Making such a threatening statement about China, guarantees that in the event of a Pak launch, China and the US will be *forced* to destroy us.

The Pakistanis will work this out quite easily. Consequently, an Indian statement against China *guarantees* a Pak launch against India almost immediately because they *know* that China and the US will have to follow suit.

In essence: Making such a statement against China *increases* Pakistan's nuclear arsenal to the combined total of Pakistan, China and the US. And guarantees their use against India.

I can expand on this a bit more, if you wish, however since you ask for a quick reply, I hope that is satisfactory.

Part 2
The second part of your question is more intriguing. Specifically, you ask what if some Pak controlled terror group launches an attack on India, could we hold Pakistan and possibly China responsible?

My answer is yes to Pakistan and retaliation *must* follow immediately and devastatingly to prevent Pak first use.

Here, *we*, have no choice. The Pakistanis will know we will hold them responsible and that public opinion will demand retribution. They will *not* wait for retaliation. A jihadi nuclear attack on India will *force* the Paks to attack us immediately, to cause as much damage as possible to us and therefore hope to escape the worst of our retaliation.

However, this immediately raises the spectre of Part 1 again.

Consequently, I would suggest the following:

1. Under no circumstances make any *public* statement against China or any other power.

2. Any "backdoor" statement made to the Chinese *must* be made so that the US can *never* be certain we have made such a threat, even if the Chinese claim we have. If possible, avoid making any such statement whatsoever even privately.

3. A public statement holding Pakistan responsible for Jihadi attacks is only possible if we can launch a retaliation almost "immediately". I cannot define "immediately. But a response that takes 6 to 12 hours or longer is futile. It guarantees triggering part 1.

So my dear X, you see, I simply cannot see any benefit to India to publicly make such threats. On the contrary, such a public threat places the country in danger of a combined Pak, China and US attack.

A private threat is only moderately less dangerous. i.e. Only valid if it is *truly* private to the Chinese and they *cannot* prove to the Americans or Pakistanis that such a threat has been made. Otherwise we place ourselves in a terrible, almost suicidally dangerous, position.

By the way, I know that this is one of those interminable academic exercises you love so much, and is of no practical use given our policy of maintaining absolute ambiguity, so why now?

I hope our netas aren't planning to do anything silly - they do tend to run of at the mouth in moments of stress.

Let me know if you want me to write a position paper on this issue or expand on it anymore. Nuclear matters can be quite tricky, as you well know, and I'll certainly help in way I can. But I shall need a lot more information.

Needless to say, I will, as you request, maintain strict confidentiality on this issue.

Look forward to hearing from you.

Sincerely,

B Ram
JNU, Dept. of International Relations.

[Singha]

Story: "the awakening"
Posting # 6.5 : "And they scattered like sparrows....."

Feb 1, 2008

Chinese General Secy Hao places a request via embassy for a
confidential one to one talk with PM Arora. The request is accepted and call scheduled for the following morning IST.

Feb 1, 2008 Night

On orders from PMO simulated missile launch drills are secretly carried out in eight places in central and eastern india. The response time after the launch codes are authorized is found to be 17 minutes, 2 mins past the desired timeframe. All Agni2 and AgniI missile are ordered to be mated with AEC cores and triggers.

A meeting of AEC chief Shanmugasundaram, BARC director Saikia, DRDO X-program chief Das and CCS concludes the tests are a success. Full readiness alert is asked to be maintained - quietly. Since the sites are remote and personnel totally cut off from contact with outside world per orders until stand down, this is not a problem. Complete Elec silence to be maintained
on the issue unless its the PMO itself passing out auth codes.
A network of messengers and embedded codes in All India Radio
will in the meantime be used to pass directives.

IAF manned platforms are not alerted for fear of leakage, but
AEC teams quietly prepare the air delivered munitions throughout the night in the catacombs deep below BARC.

Coast guard and IN aircraft are ordered to steup up patrols off the west coast and closely monitor foreign naval movements as part of a exercise 'Kipling' - a long planned navex to game a
potential standoff with USN units.

Feb 2, early morning

400 members of 1 Cdo batallion are flown by 2 x IL76 flights
into Port Blair in the early morning hours with some eqpt.
100 members of Marcos detachment join them shortly, flying
in from Mumbai on a chartered indian airlines A320.
A small convoy of waiting trucks takes them straight to the
dock where three naval ships await. Boarding is short, the ships
disappear towards a unknown point in the south within the hour, before people are up and about in the sleepy town.

Early that morning, four CG Dorniers arrive from the west coast,
flying via Chennai into Port blair to await further orders.

[Javee]

Navy deploys warships in South China Sea

Look, look, some one's been reading this

[Anand K]

Pardon fur ze digression onlee.

Guys, check out the Rear Admiral's name from Javee's link!
Ahhhh.....now I know where Farhan Akhtar got his name for AB's character in Lakshya

[kgoan]

Ramana,

I'm not sure a new thread would help.

The above post was written in the context of GD's PM sending photos to the Chinese and paks on our nuke preparations. The good Shri Ram of the JNU would keel over with heart failure - or get the heck out of Delhi ASAP - if he ever heard of that. (But see below).

The problem is that the dynamics are too difficult to allow a "reasonable" exploration of factors. It was easier within the Soviet/US dynamic because of the inherent "two-body" nature of the problem. (The other three could only be small perturbations which would dampen out because of the basic stablity of the US/SU system).

In our context it's a "many-body" problem with randomness! With 4 + 1 players it's incredibly difficult. With the "1" not being a state and far from a "rational" player it becomes impossible (within the context of cold war nuclear doctrines or even game theory) to discuss this except in very specific and limited contexts that are time bound.

It's not a linear "if-then" type situation. Decision matrices become multidimensional and variables seem to change *without* correlation, so general statements can't apply. Or if they do, I don't know how to go about doing it.

*Only* specific contexts can be made to work and that only sometimes because *every* context is different - because of the randomness inherent in the "1".

For example, within GD's context, it doesn't trigger the possibility of US intervention against us, because the Chinese *know* that they began the game by sending forces to BD. Therefore strictly speaking, what GD's PM did is "safe", but only within the context of the evolution of this scenario *at this point in time*.

But if the situation changes, well hopefully Shri X in the PMO had his reasons for asking B Ram his opinion!

Re The Samson option: There was another play the US could have made at *that* time: They could have attacked Israel to prevent them launching. And at that time, that would not have been as far fetched as it may sound today.

[Anand K]

By Ram's logic analysis the US was duty bound to ensure Israeli victory lest it becomes part of the escalation via Soviet Union.

Won't the US try to take out Israeli nukes if it comes to the final crunch.......Like, the US provides active conventional support to israel throughout the war, but even that couldn't save Israel from annihilation by its massed enemies. Rather than see the Islamic world being glassed by Israel's Samson option (and to gather support from whats left of the Islamic world after the war is over), the Americans destroy Israeli nukes through limited nuclear strikes....After all, what's the use in further loss of human life as the zero-watt bulbs/Oil lobby/Reconstruction mafia in Spincity will say. I have read about this scenario in a cpl of books...can't exactly place them now. Is this BS or is there any possiblity of his happening?

Also, can we make a parallel to the India-China-Pak triad?

[ramana]

Sorry for the thread contamination. Please no more discussion of other than the scenarios posted here. Thanks, ramana

[Singha]

two points: only in mind teaser puzzles are people perfectly logical and game it down per the "rules" (see five pirates problem in the internet) . In real life leaders are humans - experienced at the job and mentally tough but prone to emotions like anger and mistrust and ideological views not just perfect logic (Mr Spock is the exception). So they will make mistakes , the winner is the guy who makes the least as the story of many naval battles in WW2 would suffice to illustrate.

In 2008 I envisage three regiments of Arjun in the roster. One existing and two to be built in the next four years. On paper they would still be in "learning" phase i,e, not as fwd deployed as the T90M, the same wishy washy attitude we see. But in reality two regiments would be battle ready with the third still in training - thats my assumption. It would arouse no hackles if these miserable SDRE wannabe tanks were shifted to Orissa for "exercises" with indian marine infantry. Only the vaunted T90M regiments loading into flatcars for the trip to jodhpur would result in the 3 AM phone call from D.C.

A certain innovative officer named Lt. Col. Amrit Shukla is presently the head of one of these regiments (in 2008). Watch this space for his will be one of the personal threads that runs through the story once the s*** starts. It will be told from the pov of certain people in the thick of things like a para Cdo major, a Kilo skipper, cmdr of Task Force Magar (fortran based)...etc etc..just as an example.

[Sohum]

Maybe we can use one of these scenarios in another 'Grand Strategy Game' like Lelia-1

[Sunil]

The Awakening

The DU students were protesting outside the PMO about a small dam that was going to be constructed in the Chambal Valley. Some 300,000 tribals would be displaced as a result of it, and environmental activism was en vogue. The men manning the barricades would never understand even if they could follow the language. Perhaps the DU students should have noticed that the men weren't speaking Hindi. No one expects DU students to understand Lushai, but surely the hard stares from the men wearing Delhi Police uniforms should have struck the students as being odd. They didn't - and that was bad.

The crowd was wired with all sorts of sloganeering, and Mina in her pink tank top and grey YSL sweater was egging them on. No one knows what exactly did it, perhaps it was her looks, or her voice, or even the fact that she seemed to say exactly what they wanted to hear, but the eighteen year old Mina was their rock star. The daughter of a major newspaper editor, she had breezed through the electoral process in the university and risen to the council. From there doors opened quite automatically. She was a rising star. Her face was on every news broadcast.

On her urging the DU students lunged at the barricades in protest, and as fate would have it one of the steel barriers gave way. Behind it was a young Mizo Captain M. Zailiana. Though he was a veteran of eight years of counter-insurgency, his luck simply ran out that day. The falling barrier crushed his head. His men restored the barrier and pulled him to a waiting ambulance. A stony silence took hold as a teary-eyed medic attempted to revive the man he knew for so many years. The men watched - death was not a novelty, but this one had touched a raw nerve.

Back in the driveway of 7 RCR, an impatient Ronen Sen sat inside his ministerial vehicle. "Ki holo..?" he barked at his PA. The PA briefed him on the situation with the demo. Ronen shot back "So what?".. The PA understood and relayed the request. This was all Capt. Zailiana's company needed, and they fell on the unarmed protesters like pack of hungry wolves. The merciless beating began and the wails rent the air and blood splattered on the tarmac. As four security officers beat her, one of the blows landed on Mina's spine. There was a strange cracking sound, and soon Mina's world went black. A sharp eyed IG attached to the Security office noticed the situation was getting out of hand, and soon dozens of security officers from a Tibetan reserve unit rushed to the spot and pulled away the Mizos, but the damage was done. Four students were dead, and many others lay wounded.

Ronen heard about the details from the PA but simply nodded and said "Okay fine get me to Kashmir House". Upon hearing those words, the PA gave a signal and the motorcade screeched out of the area holding up ambulances heading towards the scene. The wailing of the sirens mingling. As Ronen surveyed the scene of the riot he observed police officers pulling up Mina's limp body towards a stretcher. F*ck it all thought Ronen... he had a lot on his mind.. F*ck them all.. the lot of them.

******

The MHA's motorcade was just pulling into the prison complex north of Calcutta when Manojrao's cell phone rang. The call came through describing the situation and the consequences outside the PMO. The details of Mina also came with that report. Je*us and Mary thought Manojrao, his catholic schooling came to the fore at times like this. Of all the f*ckups, this one and now, the sh*t would land on his desk... of all the things they had to pick Ramchandran's daughter. There would be hell to pay.

The motorcade stopped at the gate of the prison and an IG from the West Bengal Police (Intelligence) appeared. He led the Minister inside and soon they were standing in a cell. The smell of vomit, urine and feces filled the air, and in the middle of the room suspended from the ceiling upside down lay the battered Munawar Ehsan. The WB Police Spl. Bch. detectives had been working on him for the past two days. Blood poured out of his swollen wounds and split skin. There were cigarette marks on his skin and belt marks and welts from the continous beating could been seen all over. Munawar was delerious and was begging for death. The SB men had done a good job, they had left his right hand intact.

Manojrao had seen it all before, he ordered the IG to take Munawar down and to give him some tea. In a few minutes Munawar was lowered into a chair in front of the minister and stared at the white sheet of paper in front of him. Munawar began to beg for his life. He regurgitated that he was indeed a peasant from Attock in Pakistan who had been living in Bihar to keep an eye on Uranium mining operations in the region and that he had traded heroin to pay his sources. He offered up the name of his ISI controller in Dhaka and stated that he was only returning from a meeting with the controller when he was apprehended by the WB Police. Munawar tried his best to convinced the Minister that he was not a terrorist - just a spy.

The minister handed him a pen, and instructed the detectives to leave the room. The IG stood by the Minister's the side as he dictated and instructed Munawar to write. In Urdu, Munawar began to pen his confession, "I, Munawar Ehsan, s/o Riyaz Mohammed, r/o Attock City, Pakistan, Passport Number ..... being of sound mind and body, confess my criminal activities to the person of IG Probir, WB Police......" After about an hour, the Minister read the confession, put a copy into a large file containing the case details and left the prison. As he boarded his vehicle, he turned to IG Probir and nodded.

At five pm, that evening, Munawar was put inside a car with the IG and Asst. Police Inspector Bijoy of the WB Armed Police. The car drove north to the banks of the Ganga and there a dazed and wounded Munawar was let out towards the river. As night fell, Munawar walked in a daze towards the unfamiliar terrain that he could barely see with through his bruised eyes. As Munawar reached the waters' edge, IG Probir gave a signal and API Bijoy fired a single shot from his INSAS 5.56 rifle. The bullet took off the top of Munawar's head. IG Probir walked up to the limp and lifeless body, and watched as the blood mixed into the wet soil. He turned and walked away.

As the car pulled away into the gathering darkness, API Bijoy wondered, who would get Munawar tonite, the ghariyals or the dhongs... At that moment Manojrao's plane touched down at Palam. The motorcade pulled right up to the plane and then sped off in the direction of AIIMS Hospital... Manojrao had just heard - Mina was not expected to make it through the night.

*****

The pale light of the fluorescent lamp was sufficient for the man in the blue suit to see what he was doing. Which ofcourse did little to calm the military officer's nerves. Finally the man in the blue suit pulled off the last yellow tag on the munition, and placed a red tag on it. The military officer breathed a sigh of relief and pulled away the large black plastic tape on the side. From below the familiar black fan on a yellow circle decal began to show and right next to it in gold on black stood the ubiquitous three lion symbol. In a moment of lightheartedness, the man in blue put on his best imitation of a western drawl and said..."y'know we're all sons of *itches now" and the man in the green uniform laughed. In the distance in the hanger, a Mirage 2000 pilot saw the two and shook his head ... and walked towards them muttering the words.. "mada*ch**" repeatedly...

[Shyam_K]

How come this interesting thread seems to have died down?

[Guest]

Yes,

This is the most interesting thread in B-R currently. What's happened? Is everyone busy celebrating Dussehra? MTS, and all other scenario writers--we want our regular fix on what happens next.

[Singha]

well the shmucks who run my office decided its better I work for them (for once!) than for BR so I missed the friday evening deadline here.
however I will be posting something this week.

[SaiK]

may wanna read this and give it a new spin .

http://www.newindpress.com/Newsitems.as ... es&Topic=0&

He called for better preparedness against these ``newer and non-conventional threats'', which warrant qualitative upgrades of Defence manpower bases. He made it clear that reforms in the armed forces meant acceptance of the fact that the army, navy and air force could no longer ``function in compartments with exclusive chains of command and operational plans.''

MMS

[Sunil]

I am out of action for the next two weeks. Too much work.

Perhaps someone else can contribute. Guys - this effort is a bit like a mohalla cricket match - feel free to ask for the bat once in a while.

I wrote a small piece called Nala-Damayanti some years ago, I deemed it unsuitable for release then, but things have moved on since, it might make for nice reading here, if I can find it. It was a long time ago.

[JTull]

Calling for the Tri-Shakti spirit

Lesson No 1 (to promote inter-service ethos): The greater good of the many must take precedence over the interests of the few; Lesson No 2: The three Chiefs must stand united

ADMIRAL R H TAHILIANI

The day I retired, November 30, 1987, my successor as Chairman, Chiefs of Staff Committee, in a letter, complimented me on institutionalizing the spirit of Tri-Shakti. He went on to add that among a host of other things, this had been my outstanding contribution to the Armed Forces. As I have said in many forums since, my dear departed friend, late Air Chief Marshal Lakshman Katre, as Chief of Air Staff, had set the ball rolling for the Tri-Shakti spirit. Truly, that compliment should go to him. Why do I say this?

In the post-Independence era, a career in the Armed Forces has not been considered the preferred choice by some of the nation’s best talent. It was felt that the lack of promotion prospects compared to the civil services was one of the main reasons. Hence, the cadre reviews of 1980 and 1984.

I always believed that a surer way was to persuade the powers-that-be to delink pay from rank, and have a running pay band so that the officer corps had something to look forward to with increasing years of service, even when limited vacancies did not permit many promotions. Fortunately, the Fourth Pay Commission was constituted in mid-’84, and all government services were asked to send their recommendations to the Pay Commission. The Army and Navy made common cause and asked for a running band.

When Baba, as ACM Katre was affectionately known, became Air Chief on September 4, ’84, I explained to him that unless the Air Force made common cause with the other two services, we would all lose out. The big man that he was, he immediately sent for his AOC-in-C’s and explained why it was necessary to withdraw the Air Force memorandum and make common cause for the greater good of all three services.

Most readers may not know that the scales of pay enjoyed by the flying branch of the Air Force were higher than their ground duty colleagues, and of the Army or Navy. The flying branches stood to lose with the running pay band, which would be common to all.

The first lesson of a good inter-service ethos is that the greater good of the many must take precedence over the interests of the few. Happily for the Armed Forces, we got the running pay band. A passed-over Major would get the pay scale of Rs 5700 in the 25th year of service, when the starting pay for a Joint Secretary was Rs 5900. Likewise, a Brigadier on promotion would get Rs 6150 or Rs 6300 depending on his years of commissioned service.

Putting the clock back a bit, to when I was Flag Lieutenant with the then CNS, Vice Admiral Carlill, I would carry the files when CNS went to meet the Defence Secretary. After a couple of such visits, I asked CNS why he didn’t invite the Defence Secretary to his office now and again, when the need arose, as he was senior in the warrant of precedence. I have never forgotten his reply.

‘‘Flags,’’ he said, ‘‘I see my Army and Air Force colleagues going to see the Defence Secretary. I am British. I can sit in my office, but the Navy’s cause will suffer.’’

I realized then that Chiefs go to the Defence Secretary’s office to ensure their service gets its share of the Defence Budget cake. Lesson No. 2: the Chiefs must stand solidly united for the sake of their services, as we were able to do in the mid-’80s.

I had my Vice-Chief deal with the Defence Secretary. I mostly interacted at the political level. My colleagues soon followed suit. In the early ’80s, I have known instances when Chiefs openly squabbled in the Defence Secretary’s office. This was totally avoided, and any differences were discussed frankly, during the second half of the Chiefs of Staff meeting each week, always held in my office, without any staff or outsiders. No minutes were kept, nor was an agenda planned. It was essentially a get-together to iron out differences.

Till 1984, each service had its Commanders/ Senior Officers Conference by itself. I thought it odd that while senior civil servants were invited by individual services, the other two Chiefs were not invited. For the first time in 1985, I invited the Army and Air Chiefs when the PM inaugurated the naval conference. The next year, we had a combined inaugural for all three services by the PM. Even the customary meal in Navy House, with the PM and his lady, included senior officers of all three services with their wives. All this could not have happened without the active cooperation of my Army and Air colleagues.

Large scale exercises involving all three services were conducted each year with a Unified Commander. In 1985, the Navy provided the Commander because the setting was largely over ocean spaces. In the following year, it was the Army, with actual paradrops etc. In 1987, the Air Force provided the Unified Command. The exercise orders were written by the newly-created Defence Planning Staff, which reported to the Chiefs of Staff Committee. We three Chiefs went together everywhere — for briefings, de-briefs and actual observation of the exercises.

The Defence Planning Staff did a great job in improving the inter-service ethos. Led by General B C Nanda, and then Air Marshal P K Dey, they brought about true joint service thinking. No service could be accused of fighting for its turf. The task was assigned to whoever was best suited to handle the job, with real economy of effort and resources. The briefing for Air Force participation in the exercises was done by the Army Deputy in the Defence Planning Staff, for the Army part by a Navy man, and so on. They wore their individual service uniform, but their thinking became truly tri-service.

I dreamt that this ethos would grow and provide the joint services headquarters staff to assist a Chief of Defence Staff, whenever one was appointed. Two decades on, that dream has remained just that — a dream only. Why?

The main reason is our less than adequate higher defence apparatus, which remains headless without a Chief of Defence Staff. The re-organization of the Defence Ministry (Arun Singh Task Force), which was approved by the Group of Ministers and subsequently by the Cabinet, has not been seen to its logical conclusion. A huge integrated staff has been put together, with many Flag-rank appointments at the top. It is like a hockey team without a Captain.

Lieutenant General P S Joshi, the outgoing Chief of Integrated Defence Staff, admitted publicly that the new organisation had been able to do no more than the old Defence Planning Staff of the mid-’80s. In a three-member Chiefs of Staff Committee, if one of them does not share the concept of jointmanship wholeheartedly, you have a no-win situation. In a four-member team, with a CDS being more equal among equals, the lone dissenter can be persuaded, and if need be, overruled. In the mid-’80s, all three gentlemen at the top happened to share the commitment to jointmanship. A two-day cruise, with our spouses in a naval tanker from Port Blair to Indira Point and back in 1985, and a similar one to Lakshwadeep the following year, did much to foster the spirit.

Some time in 1987, our first tri-service sailing expedition, which circumnavigated the globe, returned. In my capacity as president of the Yachting Association of India (YAI), a reception was held for these young people in Kotah House. As is natural, at the end of the evening, the sailors started singing. After regaling the audience with typical ditties, there was a chorus demanding a song from the Chiefs. The three of us complied, singing a popular tune. Everyone seemed delighted, except a young Commander, who had a worried look.

‘‘Sir, what will the Government think if they come to know that he three Chiefs have ben singing together,’’ he said, as we got ready to leave.

I turned around and told him, ‘‘If the Government has any sense, they will be happy that the Chiefs are singing together, not squabbling among themselves.’’

The single most important rationale for a good Tri-Shakti spirit is this bonding. If you cultivate and nurture it, the entire uniformed fraternity come out winners. If you don’t, and waste energy and resources in inter-service turf war (often overt, and generally covert), the only winners are the civil services who have no accountability when the chips are down. It is always the Services who pay the price, calling for the supreme sacrifice from our brave young officers and jawans.

[Singha]

Part7.1 the awakening
"deployments"

Feb10, 2008
2 PM defence ministry delhi

the reporters had started to gather at 1:30
in the briefing room. They gathered in small knots
and knowing each other as fellow practioners of
their trade exchanged gossip and speculations about
what was in store. the invites sent out in the
morning had mentioned nothing specific but that
a important statement would be read out in a
joint conference by the external affairs and
defence ministers. This was highly unusual for
delhi , where each minister guarded his own fiefdom
zealously and was loathe to share any credit,
though not blame with his or her peers. Events in
bangladesh had been the staple of indian media
over the last month with all manner of "experts"
appearing from the woodwork to offer "solutions"
and "analyses" on what was undoubtedly turing out to
be the biggest national security challenge for
the incumbent govt.

A small group of foreign reporters had also collected.
AFP, reuters, AP, NYT, IHT. They were even more
familiar with each other - lonely expats in a hot
and relatively non-entertaining city like Delhi. They
had the foreign media club, endless bull sessions at
5* watering holes and ofcourse the diplomatic parties
in the chankapuri enclave - the only part of india
which resembled the broad tree lined avenues of
washington D.C. and paris. They were all young men
and women in their late 20s and 30s, educated in
liberal arts from top western universities and clearly
a foreign posting in a difficult location like India
was a good thing for the resume, so they put up with
it, concealing a gentle contempt for the indian journos
and standing apart from that crowd in their little
knot. talk centered around the wild party hosted by
the french ambassador the other night at a farmhouse
in chattarpur, the lovely succulent young women staffers
from the western embassies and the "fun" they had all
had in the bushes after a few stiff drinks. The handsome
french reporter was mentioning the semen stain still on
his calvin klein underwear from his tryst with a particularly
lovely specimen from the Danish embassy to the loud guffaws
of the others. life in delhi had its saving graces. beer was
cheap for a dollar salary and the young women staffers
at western embassies were easy to hit on for western
expats, isolated from their home societies as they were.

None of them had any idea about the little demonstration
near Dhaka.

At 2:10PM a staffer entered and announced the imminent
arrival of the two hon'able ministers. People started
to take their seats and ready notepads and digital voice
records. The few photographers charged up their
external flashes and proceeded to a location infront of
the dias. they had all been thoroughly screened once
at the building entrance and later at the room entrance.

A few moments later minisers Sen and Miglani entered
and walked upto two podiums setup on the stage.

Sen, as the more "senior" minister started to speak
first as expected.

"Greetings and thank you all for attending this
unscheduled press conference.we are going to present
a prepared statement from the India govt first on our
position wrt the current situation in bangladesh and
will thereafter spend a limited time taking questions.
Please do not interrupt during the reading of the
statement, but write your name on a chit of paper and
pass it to the orderly. We shall randomly select a
few names at the end and answer as best as we can.

As you know The Govt has been very worried these past
two months about the coup in bangladesh, the arrest of
all democratic political leaders, the imposition of a
islamist military rule upon a unwilling people, the
direct armed interference by pakistan and peoples

republic of china and finally the grave security

situation in the north east brought about as part of
this ecosystem of events. We have advocated a return
to democracy at the earliest and urged the BD leadership
not to turn their country into a pawn in the wider
games of others. So far we have not received a positive
response, rather our embassy has been put under lock
and key, diplomats sent packing and indian businesses
have been taken over and nationalised with no legal
recourse. A particulary galling incident has the $500 mil
under construction gas plant of the Tatas.

Similar sentiments expressed by the UN security council
also seems to have fallen on deaf years.

As we speak, foreign military forces continue to build
up a hostile posture on BD soil, undermining the

stability of our eastern states. Our intelligence

indicates the massive upsurge in insurgent activity
we have seen is because the insurgents now feel doubly
safe from indian action cossetted by these powerful
foreign forces in their hideouts.

Neither pakistan or Peoples republic of china have
responded to our requests for talks on this matter and
have refused to back away from their treay with Gen

Jaffar which gives them unlimited right to position all
manner of forces in bangladesh.

With all peaceful means of discussion having failed,
we are forced to assume the more worse case scenarios
and adopt a more robust security posture in the East
for the forseeable future until this crisis can be
brought to and end - an end that is just, that takes
the wishes of the bangladeshi citizens into account and
an end that also addresses our security concerns.

over the next two weeks, there will be a large scale
redeployment of tri-service forces into the eastern
theater. Some details shall be released to you, though
much cannot be talked about. In general they will be
tasked to ensure the security of our borders and COIN
duties. However they are authorized to respond with
decisive force if the enemy engages in hostile activity
directly affecting the safety of our forces - like cross
border firing for instance. This I wish to make clear
at the outset.

Also certain combined arms exercises will be undertaken
shortly, involving elements of all services. we are

always finetuning our strategies and the world need not
view this with any alarm. india holds dozen such

exercises every year. India does not desire nor wish to
attack bangladesh - let me state this categorically lest
anyone misquote me.

Our offer of talks to Gen Jaffar remains open. the

swedish ambassador in Dhaka has kindly consented to be
our go-between in case they wish to pass a message and
we have also decided not to close the bangladesh embassy
in delhi to keep lines of communication open.

That ends my prepared statement. *some people rush out
to make cellphone calls*. We have 20 mins to handle
questions, now let me see...reaches into pot for a
chit....ok Jenny whitcomb you are the first.....


********************
Part 7.2 "IN deployment"
Feb 14, 2008
6 PM

Feb 11-14 had been four days of the most frantic
activity at all naval bases on the west coast. A steady
stream of heavy trucks arrived carrying hundreds of types
of essential stores and munitions. Buses carrying naval
personnel buzzed around the clock. Security was

ultra-tight. All the chaos of a large fleet preparing to
sail. the lights burned and men scurried to their task
day and night. Navynagar was tense with families saying
their goodbyes to loved ones.

Finally, as dusk fell on western india the first
surface units started to set sail. They were to sortie

from everywhere cochin, goa, mumbai and the new base in

karwar to which some of the prime units had shifted in

2006.

Working to a complicated convoy plan, ships first sailed alone
they 50km off the shore, formed up with designated other
units from the same base and sailed south at high speed.

The armada kept growing the further south it went, the
last to sail were the ships berthed in cochin. Behind
them , at a slower speed came the submarines....they
sailed on the surface to economise on fuel. They were
also under orders not to make an attempt to hide their
presence for the time being.

This was a public deployment.

36 hrs later, the armada rounded kanyakumari and sailed
directly through the Palk straits. A US navy EP3 orion
from diego, keeping a good distance identified and

counted the fleet from their radar returns. the IN made
no attempt to chase it away or acknowledge its presence.

Like ghosts in the night and deployed in a loosely
strung line about 100 miles long, the western fleet
made the transit through the narrow palk channel. coast
guard cutters from the mainland were on hand to keep
fishing fleets from straying dangerously into the path
of the darkened ships racing along at 20 knots in the
grey evening mist.

On entering the bay of bengal, the ships split into
three groups and went their separate ways.

TaskForce#10 sailed due east to great nicobar- this consisted of the
most powerful SAG in the history of india. INS Delhi,
Mumbai, Mysore, Shivalik, Satpura, Trishul, Talwar,
Jyoti, 2 oceanographic research ships converted to
towed sonar work in 2006 and a mysterious merchant
hull that bore the name "INS chanakya". These eleven
ships split off and soon vanished into the haze. The
two P17 ships both carried the Shtil-1 system in the
VLS arrangement from Altair - the first such ships in
the IN. Vice admiral Roy with a full retinue of
battlestaff commanded the group from Chanakya.

The remainder sailed 150km due northeast before
Taskforce#20 split away and sailed in a easterly
direction to port blair. This consisted of INS brahmaputra, Magar
(with 500 para cdo/marcos onboard), Aditya, 3 small
SCI tankers, 2 supply ships chartered from pvt operators,
Sagardhwani, Nireekshak and another mysterious merchant
hull INS Narada spouting a mass of antennae. Vice admiral
Sarma the group commander was onboard.

Taskforce#30 was the remainder and it continued northeast
towards vizag. INS gharial (with 500 troops onboard),
Shakti, godavari, Tabar, 2 small SCI tankers, 2 merchant
ships packed with supplies and another ship INS Maurya
full of antennae. Admiral Koshy of eastern command would
board in Vizag.

A day behind this followed the INS Viraat slipping her
moors at Kochi, escorted by a Kilo submarine. She mounts
10 Sea Harriers and 10 Sea Kings in a cramped all-up wartime
config. Halting briefly off chennai, she tests her Barak missile
battery with a practice shot at a Uran dummy fired from a test vessel - it scores a direct hit. She continues on at a sedate
pace towards vizag keeping in mind her aeging boilers and 2 yr planned lifespan left. Sindhushastra her faithful ASW partner
for the last 3 years tails the Viraat about 5 km behind, constantly listening on her passive sonar for signs of unknown subs in the area. Occasionally she turns back to check the rear hemisphere carefully, then rejoins the viraat.

Two kilo submarines were in refit at
St petersburg,russia.these were the 8th and 9th
sindhuvijay and sindhurakshak. That left eight. of these
six submarines were moving down the west coast leaving
two behind at mumbai. All six headed independently as
submarines to do towards refueling points in the middle
andaman island.

Two U209 submarines Shalki and Shankul joined their
cousins on the voyage south, but rather than heading
for andaman, followed the wake of Taskforce#30 heading
towards Vizag.

Rana, Ranjit and Ranvijay crept up to full readiness
at the dockside in vizag. their sister ships rajput
and ranveer sailed on Feb 14 - headed for Karwar.

agray and ajay pauk asw ships sailed from vizag to
port blair, as do ships carrying POL from east coast
ports.

20 MCM sqdn from cochin sails to the andamans. 21 MCM
sqdn in vizag preps to full readiness.

Meantime, away on west coast the remnants left behind
still form a adequate force deemed enough for defence
duties of the west coast. the flagship under vice admiral
singh would be the brahmos armed INS rajput when it arrived. Rana, betwa,
beas, gomti were the other capital ships. 2 Kilo and 1
HDW submarines the underwater component. 1 HDW was in
refit at mazgoan and unfit for duty. Suvarna, savitri
OPVs, 4 trinkat class inshore patrol vessels, 5 super
dvora boats, Kora, kirch, kulish, karmukh armed with
16 urans each, khukri, kuthar, kirpan, khanjar,
sukanya, subhadra OPV, akshay and abhay pauk asw ships,
19 MCM sqdn mumbai would be the covering force for
west coast. from the land, IAF support and 16 brahmos
TELs were available just in case.

there were six 8m deep berths in Port blair,one in
Hutbay, one in mayabunder and 5m deep berths in campbell
bay(1), nancowrie(1), katchal(1), diglipur(1),rangat(1)
and port blair(2). Under a complicated but detailed
refueling and supply plan, comandeered ships of SCI
and pvt cos loaded with fuel and eqpt set sail from
sundry points in the east coast to top up the deployed
forces when they arrived on the island chain. Army
and navy engineers worked frantically to build up extra
storage facilities on land and enlarge the apron area
at the sole airport Port blair. Demolitions teams with
construction eqpt began clearing out pre-surveyed
sites in Pahalgoan north andaman and bananga great

nicobar to permit operations by Mi17 sized helicopters
and dornier do228 which had excellent rough field
capability. IL76 flights from the mainland brought in
EME and BRDO people to assist in the process.

The five passenger ships between the mainland and the
island chain viz nancowry, swarajdeep, nicobar,akbar
and harshavardhana received orders to proceed to
kolkata and chennai to pick up additional army and navy
manpower for the islands garrison. additional number of
vehicles were also needed and loaded up the following
few days.

All the above movements were finally completed by
19th Feb, 2008. It was by a long margin the heaviest
phalanx of naval power seen in the bay of bengal - ever.

http://www.mapsofindia.com/maps/andaman ... island.gif


Tomorrow 7.3 "IAF and IN naval air arm deployment"

[Singha]

7.3 "IAF and IN naval air arm deployment"

the existing naval air arm presence in Fortran had been a few
logistical helicopters. 4 DO228 AMOSP equipped ac had arrived
a few days prior. Now 4 more flew in from the mainland, utilizing
their 2400km range. Port Blair was almost equidistant at 1200km
from chennai, vizag and kolkata. A new precision approach control
radar and heavier runway safety barriers were flown in, and all
sorts of supplies to supply the bigger number of a/c. Four SeaDragon
equipped IL38 Mays also joined the dorniers , who then moved
partially south to new airstrip in great nicobar making room for the
Mays. IL76 sorties flew in some Dhruv helis for improved inter-island logistics. spares parts, fuel, people, construction machinery started to arrive round the clock. The entire union territory was put under martial law and the Deputy commissioner was packed off to the mainland, replaced by the local Fortran commander as The authority on the spot.
One unit of Samyukta comprising 40 mid sized vehicles arrived
on multiple IL76 flights and quickly dispersed into the forested hills both to monitor SIGINT activity from the passing convoys of chinese and pakistani ships and to detect outward transmissions by agents on the island chain,

By 2008, after heavy indian persuasion russia had agree to let the
israeli Bear upg go ahead and two ac had been upg'ed. These two and
another two based in Tambaram would be tasked for bay of bengal
missions.

the air defence of the island chain needed to be beefed up. Six Akash
batteries had been procured so far and only one could be spared - for
port blair naval anchorage and airport. Some SA-6 and Tunguska batteries
were flown from IA inventory and deployed to the smaller harbours and
new airstrips in next few days.

Civilian airliners ferried priority personnel while the five ships
who ran scheduled service to andamans started their first trip packed
with extra supplies and troops to beef up the garrison.

IAFs air movement orders went out of evening of Feb11. The lights
burned all night at two dozen airbases as commanders worked out the
additional logistics necessary referring to existing guideline documents.
On Feb12 the first non-tender orders went to local suppliers for
pre-fab housing, tents, food, oil and hundreds of other items. By Feb15
the supplies started flooding into the eastern airbases.


Transport sqdn deployments

Guwahati - 1 AN32
Jorhat - 1 AN32
Gorakhpur - 1 IL78
Patna - 1 IL78
Bagdogra - 1 AN32G **
Silchar - 1 AN32G

Special mission platforms

Charbatia -1 B707, 1 Heron, 1 recce Jag detachment
barapani(shillong) - 1 Searcher2
silchar - 1 searcher2
agartala - 1 searcher2
port blair - 1 hermes
great nicobar - 1 heron

Fighters

guwahati -1 flanker MKI
charbatia -1 flanker MKI
hashimara - 1 flanker MKI, 2 mig27
kalaikunda - 1 mig27, 1 Mirage2000 (battleaxes)
panagarh - 1 mirage2000 (Tigers )
dum dum - 1 mig21 bison
chabua(dibrugarh) - 1 mig21 bison
tezpur - 1 mig21 bison(MOFTU shut and FL's kept aside for
duration of crisis)
jorhat - 1 mig21 bison
patna - 1 Mig29
gorakhpur - 2 x jaguar-ng (new build or upg)
port blair - 10 Jaguar-IM

* all Jaguars and Mirages deployed to theater are equipped
with full night flying and bombing capability via Litening2/3 pods
and french/israeli LGB kits. Limited number of other "special conventional munitions" are also available and to the Flankers. These will be revealed in due course.

india railways allocates special trains to ferry the hundreds of
tons of POL and munitions this 50% redeployment of IAF necessitates.

The rest of IAF uncluding two flanker sqdns, most of the Mig27, Jag
and Mig-27 fleet is left at their original bases on a on-call basis.
The two newest Mirage2000 sqdns were also left behind at
Nagpur and Gwalior. These had been formed from the top-off order of 10 in 1997, the 12 Qatari planes and extra planes from the initial lot. A few planes from this lot were already at Charbatia as a ready nuclear reserve under direct control of Air HQ delhi. These would play no part in conventional ops unless a dire emergency arose.
Lack of Midas refuelers and base capacity in the east acts as a
gate on introduction of more forces. base apron and HAS additions
began as a priority in NE only in 2006 and hasnt caught up yet with
the scale of this demand.

** AN32G started as a brainchild of a enterprising Col Ray in a
mountain div engaged in COIN. Often his troopers had to fight prolonged
and risky battles in adverse terrain and weather to wipe out the
roving lashkars that came across the fence in J&K. zero friendly KIA
were not possible and neither was wiping out all the enemy, a few
invariably escaped. During a trip to visit a naval officer relative in
Goa, a night trip in a DO228 AMOSP (multi mission optronic stablized
payload) was arranged. Ray was amazed at the kind of situational
awareness provided and quickly suggested to his boss Gen Sinha that
the idea be tried on a experimental basis. The IAF was gearing up to
get the MTA soon and agreed to hand over a few AN32 old airframes to
the army and BEL for tinkering around. As it often happens with such
small niche ideas, nobody in power or the arms lobbies saw a threat
in it, it was too small to bother so they let it go unmolested. After
six months of playing with subsystems BEL had already developed for LCH, the
first prototype deployed to J&K with Rays division. Equipped with
a electro-optical daynight payload including a Litening2 pod which
could look down and discriminate people from 30,000ft at night.
two GSH-23 3-barrel cannons lifted from retired IAF fighters and a
aiming system similar to the AC130 completed the pic. 15,000rds of ammo per gun was fed via a automated belt and drum system. A 40mm automatic grenade launcher was coaxial with each gun. Two firing consoles permitted the gunners a view from thermal/TV cameras and laying the gun onto a target in a stablizied manner. Once locked on, the guns traversed themselves to keep a lock as the a.c manouvered. Alternately the gunners could manually control with joytick in realtime though this needed a lot of practice. The std flares
and chaff pkg was added to guard against manpads. In its first action
it detected and devasted a group of 12 lashkar members in dense forest
*before* the QRT arrived on foot. the last lashkar member was chased
screaming in terror by a wake of cannon shells for 200m across a open
meadow before being shredded . soon, word began to filter into the
remaining small bands of terrorists across the border about this
black "shaitan" that flew silently but saw everything. Col Ray retired soon
after but the para cdo units operating in J&K had already seen his
idea at work and *they* had the clout up in Delhi to ensure a official
order for 12 such airframes to be used exclusively for COIN and "owned"
by the special ops directorate. The aircraft was then formally named
as the AN-32G. russian protests at hijacking their design and demands
for royalty were rejected by army HQ. Things went back to normal as the
russians and IAF got busy with MTA test program.

tomorrow: 7.4 "indian army deployments"

[merlin]

Yum, yum

[Singha]

Addendum: On Feb13 night, at the gujrat coast four CG hovercraft engines at idle move silently and slide onto a floating transport deck. The deck is then lifted by gantry crane onto deck of MV Samudra Sundari a dry bulk cargo ship comandeered by the IN. In two hours, all the four crafts are lashed safely on the deck.

The ship slips off the jetty and heads south at its top speed of 23 knots. onboard a small team of naval technicians begin making certain modifications under the direction of a bearded officer wearing all-back from head to toe with the marcos patch. All attempts by the crew to make small talk with him and become "friendly" are coldly rebuffed.

Bhartendu Sinha has other things on his mind.

[Shyam_K]

can't wait for the next instalment

[amol]

Fascinating! BTW, what happened to the 'Blood-on-sands' parallel scenario started by Bhavani? Can we expect any further developments there?

[dipesh.c]

MT this is awesome awesome..I want more, I WANT MORE!!!

[Singha]

7.4 "army deployments"

Prelude

Feb 13, 2008 7:00AM
A location 20km north of the BD border near Cherrapunji

The forest came alive as the morning sun rose from the east
and cast its warming rays into the deep shadowy valleys of
eastern meghalaya. Birds of many varieties arose and called
out to each other. monkeys, deer, hogs, wild hens, vultures,
hawks, elephants, leopards all scurried about their daily lives.
A casual observer would not have noticed the small group of
14 men dressed in matching forest camo walking slowly through
the dense bamboo thickets.....they moved with care, stopping once
in a while to look, listen and feel the pulse of the forest.
backpacks were heavy - around 50 lbs each but the men looked lean,
hungry and endowed with a wiry strength. Two of them displayed
the floppy antennas of long range radios jutting from their
backpacks, all had small tactical radios clipped on their belts.
two of them carried FN-MAG machine guns with a modified square
type magazine with a belt coiled up inside. The rest twelve
carried a peculiar looking weapon with the magazine positioned
behind the pistol grip. A few had silencers on the end of barrels.

The outside world called it Tavor 5.56mm. It was the standard
weapon in 2008 of all elements in the indian special forces for
medium and long range work.....

an hour later, the section emerged into a small clearing carefully
camouflaged from prying eyes overhead by careful site selection
under the dense forest canopy. Some green tents and a few PVC boxes
meant to carry equipment were the only evidence of human presence.

A short bull-like man emerged from the largest tent and greeted the
newcomers warmly. The section leader after dismissing his men
took a l-o-n-g drink of water and poured a jerrican of water over
himself to wash off ten days of forest grime and sweat. The bull-like
man waited patiently. fifteen minutes later they were both gathered
inside the large tent before a briefcase sized satcom terminal and
entry keyboard. Capt Daljit Singh Chauhan of 10 para cdo had
a lot to report.

From godforsaken camps and caves like these all over the NE, the
scout reports started to come....growing in volume, depth and
diversity.

Inside the national command bunker near Delhi, teams of skilled
officers started the arduous work of keeping up with the incoming
reports and collating them to draw up the wider picture.

Men, very important and powerful men began to digest this picture.

**********
[to be continued]

[chola]

Our chess pieces are finally moving!

That was well worth the wait, GD

[Singha]

7.4 "army deployments" continued...

Feb 13, 2008 2:00PM
Fort William, Kolkata

Signs of increased security detail were evident to the careful
observer at the Eastern Command HQ. Cars with red pilot lamps
had started arriving around lunch time. Visitors were shooed out from certain areas, the tone of the troopers being distinctly
unfriendly.

A meeting was in progress. GoC-in-C eastern command General Prasad was in attendence, and so was the joint chief Gen Sastry, Goc-in-C western command Gen Brar, army chief Gen Singh, Lt gen Kailath the commander of north-east forces based in guwahati, Major gen Virk of the dimapur based corps and Gen Sengupta the Tawang based commander of the china front. Senior IB and RAW representatives of inspector general rank were in attendance. A relatively junior brigadier was also in the room. Brigadier George Joseph was one of the youngest ever in indian history to reach that rank. His charge was also the youngest institution in the indian army and yet shortly destined to be known around the world.

Around 3:30pm the participants had each had a chance to present their plans in some detail and the focus turned increasingly to debate and discussions on the merit and demerit of each idea. A complex equation with 100 variables had to be solved and changing any variable had the effect of changing the values of some others. It was not even clear whether all the variables had been accounted for.

By 5:00pm everyone was exhausted and talked out. Throats were dry and a lot of stomachs were rumbling with hunger, having worked their way quickly through the lunch of mutton biryani and mishti doi served way back at 11:30am.

Gen Brar, always a very outspoken officer interrupted the trains of thought to broach the delicate subject of taking a break and some hot food. Gen Sastry, more of an ascetic shot him a cross look but seeing the 'hungry' looks on a lot of faces relented and quietly nodded.

In an adjoining room, cooks and servers rushed to setup a evening buffet as quickly as possible. paneer pakoras, minced chicken kabab, french toast, large pedas bought specially from gongurams, a enormous kathleens cake sliced into brawny pieces(Gen Brar's appetite was well known - he was known to taken 1/4th of a roasted deer in a single seating during his stints in the north east..and that was before he started on the beer. an artillery officer by trade , his rather large 6'6" frame had been found not fit through the porthole of a T-72 tank though as the topper of his batch at officer school any branch of his choosing was open) and a cansister of steaming sweet tea. in keeping with the new 'faux gandhian' look favoured by Defence minister Sen, earthen plates and tea cups were mandatory.

At 6:00pm the meeting reconvened this time with happy looks on all faces bar the inscrutable face of Gen Sastry.

Finally things were hammered into a satisfactory state and a
operational order drafted and duly signed off on. At 10PM it
went out on the army's private network and broke like a thunderclap over many sleeping heads. The salient points of the deployment order.

* the two arunachal divisions to take up a higher state of alert and increase monitoring of activity in Tibet. The Sikkim division to do likewise esp near the tri-junction area.

* red horns rangiya division to deploy in western assam and try
to seal the indo-bangla border

* additional BSF forces to be released from central reserve and
beef up the west bengal border

* one additional division from western command to be arunachal
reserve

* one additional division from central command to deploy at
nagaland and manipur to relieve the dimapur corps which would
move and take up positions at tripura, north cachar hills and
mizoram.

* two divisions in central india to be kept as ready reserve
for the eastern front

* one mechanized division of I (strike) corps to detach and team up with 41st and 43rd independent armd brigades both armed with Arjun mk1 tanks and deploy into west bengal north of Malda.

* one indep artillery division to join up with the above formation.

* request to IR for additional 100 trains to ferry men, materials and munitions from central, north and west india.

Brigadier George received his own separate sheet of paper. As commander of the special forces directorate his activities were to be shrouded in more secrecy than the regular formations. A high degree of support from the IAF would be needed. Gen Sastry made it clear he would fight the turf battles necessary to make that happen and soothe any big egos that needed soothing. Accordingly the units under brigadier george would deploy as "Joint task forces" with embedded IA aviation & IAF elements.

* JTF "thunder" @ Kalaikunda
1 batallion para Cdo, 10 Mi17, 10 Dhruv, 4 Mi35

* JTF "Flood" @ hashimara & bagdogra
1 batallion para Cdo, 10 Mi17, 10 Dhruv, 4 Mi35

* JTF "monsoon" @ agartala & silchar
2 batallion para Cdo + 2 batallion para infantry
15 Mi17, 10 Dhruv, 8 Mi35

* JTF "crocodile" @ north andaman
1 Marcos batallion , helicopters as needed from navy.

and finally another sheet of paper marked with the top secret
tag. This even the other JTFs would not have any knowledge about.

* JTF "Black Raven" @ raipur(chattisgarh)
1 AN32, 4 Mi17, addl support as needed from theater assets and RAW ARC at charbatia
4 AN32G from directorate assets.
50 members NSG SAG, 50 members from 1 Para Cdo.

Eastern Command would control the regular army formations, Army HQ via special ops directorate would control the JTFs. Black Raven would remain outside the normal chain of command and its existence be known only at highest levels. Gen Sastry and PMO's direct authorization would be necessary to task it and only brigadier George would deal with it directly.

For all official records Black Raven was not to exist, its history was not to be recorded.

Meeting over, the cars with red lights off quietly vanished into the night. Gen Brar took a short detour into the mess for another large meal before departing.

The night of Feb 16 ...observers on the gangetic plains were they blessed with night vision would have seen scores of black helicopters heading in ones , two and threes towards the east. Always towards the east.

next week: "Squadron leader Jakob abraham #20 Lightnings"
and "The incident at Fatasil Ambari"

* fatasil ambari - a BD immigrant dominated 'shantytown' a
southern suburb of guwahati. population est atleast 2 lakhs
alongwith adjoining ghetto Dhirenpara.

[Guest]

MTS,

7.5: A meeting taken by Secy, Def. Production, Chairman, Defense Production Board, Army logistics, Member, Traffic, Railway Board, and addl secretary, Min. of Shipping in Delhi to look at

1) Increaing production from OFB units, especially for munitions. IR to taks trains out of select oFB factories into Eastern Command areas.
2) Two ports that would receive raw materials and would have fast trains to OFB factories.
3) Fast clearances at ports--Min. of Shipping.
4) Other logistics requirments--food, clothes, POL, all to be tasked and moved.

Three decisions were taken.

1) A logistics and train movement cell would operate around the clock in Rail Bhawan. A Major General-level person and an Executive Director of the Railway Board (equal to a JS) would be there during the day and one-level lower at all times. A representative from one of the oil companies would also be present, since half the wagons that the IR would be would be carrying POL.

2) CISF and army units would man key bridges in he North-East and in the East to ensure that they were safe. The existing measures would be stepped up.

3) Further, the director general of the Confederation of Indian Industry (the business association) would be sounded out and told to get his companies that were in milk, processed food, and even medicines to expect secret meetings with Army officials to increase output.

The Secretary, Defense Production, Mr. Bora, then called his trusted JS, Mrs. Pillai and told her: "This department is normally always forgotten. After the operations are over, we will be forgotten again, but in the next one month, our motto should be that we actually should be not remembered, in the sense that if we do our jobs, no crises should erupt that will get the Cabinet Secretary on our case. I expect all of us to work hard, and if you have any inter-ministerial issues (with petroleum, railways, etc.), let me know immediately."/

[Singha]

useful work Harsh. a minor change suggested in that army commandoes are few in number and wasted doing sentry on bridges. the regular army, CRPF and BSF has ample units to do that and are already doing that in NE for 2 decades now. Each major bridge has a small tent camp and a unit of troops guarding it at both ends.
All the six army Cdo batallions are tasked to the JTFs. more would be good, but thats all we have in 2008.

[Guest]

MTS, Thanks for the tip. I've made the changes.

Harsh