Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Uttam
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 13 Apr 2019 18:38

Data request: Where can I find data on the rate of increase in available workforce and rate of change in productivity in India?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 14 Apr 2019 19:15

Index of Industrial Production - IIP - 2011-12 series, with 2011-12 normalized to 100 at the monthly level, last 13 months:

Code: Select all

2018 Feb   127.4
2018 Mar   140.3
2018 Apr   122.6
2018 May   129.6
2018 Jun   127.7
2018 Jul   125.7
2018 Aug   128.0
2018 Sep   128.8
2018 Oct   132.8
2018 Nov   126.1
2018 Dec   134.0
2019 Jan   134.2
2019 Feb   127.5


Notes:
Feb 2019 is a quick estimate.
Jan 2019 has undergone first revision.
Nov 2018 has undergone final revision.
Quick estimate of March 2019 will be available May 10, 2019.
Source: mospi.gov.in (Ministry of Statistics and Program Implementation).

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby A_Gupta » 15 Apr 2019 18:06

The Ministry of Commerce and Industry reports a monthly index, "Index of Eight Core Industries (Base: 2011-12=100)", via press releases on the Press Information Bureau (pib.nic.in). "The Eight Core Industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP)." These are Coal, Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refinery Products, Fertilizers, Steel, Cement, Electricity.

The index:

Code: Select all

2018 Feb   123.2
2018 Mar   138.5
2018 Apr   124.3
2018 May   131.9
2018 Jun   131.2
2018 Jul   129.2
2018 Aug   128.8
2018 Sep   127.2
2018 Oct   134.8
2018 Nov   128.3
2018 Dec   132.2
2019 Jan   134.5
2019 Feb   125.8


Note:
Data for December 2018, January 2019 and February 2019 are provisional.
Release of the index for March, 2019 will be on Tuesday, 30th April, 2019.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2019 00:42

Trade data for 2018-19 is out:
Merchandise exports rise to $331 billion but deficit hits record high of $176 billion
Despite exports and imports growing at the same rate of 9 per cent, India’s trade deficit reached a record high of $176 billion in 2018-19.

According to data released by the commerce and industry ministry on Monday, exports stood at $32.55 billion in March, taking the total tally in 2018-19 to $331 billion. While it is the first time that outbound trade has remained above $300 billion for two consecutive years, exports couldn't cross the government’s internal target of $350 billion. In the 2017-18 financial year, exports stood at $303.52 billion.

On the other hand, a continuous shoot up in imports, which grew at double digit levels for 6 of the last 12 months, took cumulative imports to a soaring high of $507.44 billion. This was nearly $42 billion more than India’s total bill in the preceding year.

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Previous post on services trade is here
Services trade (Feb 2019)
RBI data on services trade Feb 2019
Exports: $16.6 billion
Imports: $9.8 billion
Surplus: $6.8 billion

April 2018-Jan 2019
Exports: $186.9 billion
Imports: $115.0 billion
Surplus: $72.9 billion

Likely services trade full year surplus will be $80-82 billion so that overall trade deficit is ~$95 billion. PIB has released their monthly trade press release for March 2019, with merchandise trade data and services trade estimates:
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About oil and gold imports vs exports:
CRUDE OIL AND NON-OIL IMPORTS:

Oil imports inMarch 2019 were USD11.75Billion (Rs. 81,609.46Crore), which was 5.55percent higher in Dollar terms (12.78percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD11.13Billion (Rs. 72,359.44Crore) in March 2018. Oil imports in April-March 2018-19 were USD140.47Billion (Rs. 9,83,147.76Crore) which was 29.27per cent higher in Dollar terms (40.39percent higher in Rupee terms) compared to USD108.66Billion (Rs. 7,00,320.81Crore), over the same period last year.

In this connection it is mentioned that the global Brent price ($/bbl) has decreased by 0.06% in March 2019 vis-à-vis March 2018 as per data available from World Bank (Pink Sheet).

Non-oil imports inMarch 2019 were estimated at USD31.69Billion (Rs.2,20,204.59Crore) which was at-par in Dollar terms (6.85percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD31.69Billion (Rs. 2,06,081.80Crore) in March 2018. Non-oil imports in April-March 2018-19 were USD366.97Billion (Rs.25,64,856.72Crore) which was 2.82per cent higher in Dollar terms (11.48percent higher in Rupee terms), compared to USD356.92Billion (Rs. 23,00,712.62Crore) in April-March2017-18.

Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD28.42billion in March 2019, recording a negative growth of 2.67per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in March 2018. Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports wereUSD334.15billion in April-March 2018-19, recording a positive growth of 3.37per cent, as compared to Non-Oil and Non-Gold imports in April-March 2017-18.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2019 01:30

Modi govt’s war on NPAs may boost India’s growth by 60 bps; Goldman Sachs explains how
The government’s war on non perfroming assets (NPAs) could give a boost of 60 basis points to India’s GDP in FY20, a report by global brokerage said. The measures taken by the Modi government including recovery of bad loans and bank recapitalisation will reduce costs for lenders, Goldman Sachs said. Decline in credit costs will help banks to lend more money to productive purposes, it added.

The global investment bank said that the same could be achieved through gentle trends in bad loans and the healthier NPA provisioning ratios that “proactive policies have engendered over the past two years”.

“We estimate that credit costs — how much banks set aside each year to deal with bad loans — could fall from a peak of 230 basis points of banking system assets, or around 3.3 trillion rupees ($48 billion), in FY18 to 120 basis points, or 1.9 trillion rupees, in FY20,” Bloomberg reported the brokerage as saying.

“This decline in credit costs would boost bank profitability, reduce headwinds to bank capital growth and enhance the capacity of the banking system to extend credit,” analysts led by Jonathan Sequeira, wrote.

States procure more than Centre on GeM portal in FY19
For the first time, state governments’ procurement of commonly-used goods and services through the Government e-Marketplace (GeM) portal has exceeded that of the Centre, suggesting their increasing reliance on the platform.

According to the latest official data, purchases by various states via GeM touched Rs 9,209 crore in 2018-19 against Rs 7,947 crore by the Central government. States such as Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra and Madhya Pradesh are among the largest buyers on the GeM platform.However, at 9.03 lakh, the number of orders placed by the Central government was higher than that of state governments (3.93 lakh) in 2018-19, suggesting that states ordered more high-value items.

Enthused by the response, GeM is now aiming to catalyse public procurement worth `50,000 crore (in terms of value of transactions) through its platform in 2019-20 against `17,325 crore in 2018-19 and `5,885 crore in the previous fiscal.The products and services available on the GeM platform are typically commonly-used ones that various Central government ministries and departments used to purchase through the erstwhile Directorate General of Supplies and Disposals (DGS&D), before the 100-year-old government procurement arm was wound up.

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Another rate cut soon? Lowest food inflation in 27 years gives RBI more headroom to support growth
The Reserve Bank of India may keep its focus firmly on growth, despite a moderate rise in CPI inflation in March, as the central bank draws comfort from falling core inflation in the month and soft full-year food inflation, which fell to a 27-year low. Most experts say inflation will likely remain benign while growth uncertainties surround Indian economy.

A major factor keeping inflation in the economy benign is subdued food prices. According to recent government data, CPI food inflation during 2018-19 remained at 0.14 percent — which is the lowest since 1991. The low inflation, keeping well below target, has allowed the RBI to shift its focus to stimulate and support growth in the economy.

“CPI inflation continues to remain comfortably below the RBI’s target of 4% and thus we continue to see room for another 25 bps of rate cut in 1HFY20. We assign a higher probability of a rate cut in August as uncertainties surrounding the outcome of the election, monsoon and budget would have partly abated by then,” said a report by Kotak Economic Research.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Kashi » 16 Apr 2019 06:44

Suraj wrote:According to the latest official data, purchases by various states via GeM touched Rs 9,209 crore in 2018-19 against Rs 7,947 crore by the Central government.
Image


The graph and the statement appear contradictory. The graph plots Rs 9,209 crore against "Centre" (light blue) and Rs 7,947 crore against "States" (Dark blue). A case of mislabelling perhaps?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 16 Apr 2019 07:30

Kiran Kumar S


@KiranKS

India’s commercial vehicle sales hit all-time high in FY2019.

● FY 2018-19 : 10,07,319 Units
● FY 2017-18 : 8,56,453 Units
● FY 2016-17 : 7,14,082 Units
● FY 2015-16 : 6,85,704 Units
● FY 2014-15 : 6,14,948 Units
● FY 2013-14 : 6,32,851 Units

Economy is doing very well!

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2019 07:40

Yes, CV sales are an extremely critical barometer of the investment cycle because it indicates that businesses are investing in capacity.

Trivia: the economy last saw 800K CV sales back in 2011-12 . It took 6 full years for the activity to ramp up enough to exceed that number again in 2017-18 , and now hitting the million mark in 2018-19 .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2019 09:27

Kashi wrote:
Suraj wrote:According to the latest official data, purchases by various states via GeM touched Rs 9,209 crore in 2018-19 against Rs 7,947 crore by the Central government.
Image


The graph and the statement appear contradictory. The graph plots Rs 9,209 crore against "Centre" (light blue) and Rs 7,947 crore against "States" (Dark blue). A case of mislabelling perhaps?

Yes the graph is wrong- they’ve swapped the figures for central and state for the most recent year while generating the graph .

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 16 Apr 2019 18:27

Total Indian exports touched $540 billion in 2018-19: Suresh Prabhu.

India recorded its highest ever exports in the last fiscal accounting for $540 billion trade. This included $330 billion in terms of merchandise export and $210 billion in terms of services, noted union minister for commerce and civil aviation Minister Suresh Prabhu.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 22 Apr 2019 21:25

Deposits in Jan Dhan accounts to soon cross Rs 1 lakh crore mark
The total deposits in bank accounts opened under the Jan Dhan scheme, which was launched about five years ago by the Modi-government, are set to cross Rs 1 lakh crore soon. The total balance in the Jan Dhan accounts, which has been steadily rising, was at Rs 97,665.66 crore as on April 3, as per the latest government data. The total number of Jan Dhan accounts have crossed 35.39 crore.

The deposits stood at Rs 96,107.35 crore on March 27 and Rs 95,382.14 crore in the week before. More than 27.89 crore account holders have been issued the Rupay debit cards. The Pradhan Mantri Jan Dhan Yojana (PMJDY) was launched on August 28, 2014 with an aim to provide universal access to banking facilities to all households.

Enthused by the success of the scheme, the government enhanced the accident insurance cover to Rs 2 lakh from Rs 1 lakh for new accounts opened after August 28, 2018. The overdraft limit was also doubled to Rs 10,000. The government also shifted the focus on accounts from ‘every household’ to ‘every unbanked adult’.

Over 50 per cent of the Jan Dhan account holders are women, while nearly 59 per cent accounts are in rural and semi-urban areas. The objective of PMJDY is to ensure access to various financial services like availability of basic savings bank account, access to need based credit, remittances facility, insurance and pension to weaker sections and low income groups. The PMJDY also envisages channelling all government benefits to the beneficiary accounts and pushing the Direct Benefit Transfer (DBT) scheme of the central government.

Finance Ministry asks CPSEs to prepare list of non-core assets, initiate talks with potential investors
The Finance Ministry has asked CPSEs identified for strategic sale to immediately prepare a list of assets and initiate dialogue with potential investors and bidders so that their non-core assets can be monetised quickly. Such CPSEs will have an option to either hive-off non-core assets to a Special Purpose Vehicle (SPV) or transfer sale proceeds of non-core assets to an escrow account to ring-fence the realised amount from the rest of the business, an official said.

The government has already identified about 35 CPSEs for strategic sale. These include Air India, Pawan Hans, BEML, Scooters India, Bharat Pumps Compressors, and Bhadrawati, Salem and Durgapur units of steel major SAIL. The other CPSEs for which approvals are in place for outright sale include Hindustan Fluorocarbon, Hindustan Newsprint, HLL Life Care, Central Electronics, Bridge & Roof India, Nagarnar Steel plant of NMDC and units of Cement Corporation of India and ITDC.

The government has transferred Rs 29,000 crore debt of Air India, out of the total debt of Rs 55,000 crore of the airline, to AIAHL. Besides, proceeds from the sale of four subsidiaries — Air India Air Transport Services (AIATSL), Airline Allied Services (AASL), Air India Engineering Services Ltd (AIESL) and Hotel Corporation of India (HCI)– too would be transferred to AIAHL. Also, non-core assets – painting and artefacts – as well as other non-operational assets of the national carrier too will be transferred to the SPV.

Govt eyes REITs model for sale of PSU assets, enemy property
The finance ministry is looking at the innovative Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) model for sale of land assets of CPSEs and also those which are classified as ‘enemy property’ by the government.

REITs, which are regulated by the Sebi, are instruments for investments in real estate. Under this model of securitisation, the land assets will be transferred to a trust, providing investment opportunity for institutional investors.

The finance ministry is looking at the REITs model along with other modes like leasing or outright sale of land assets for monetising non-core assets of central public sector enterprises (CPSEs) which have been identified for strategic disinvestment, an official said.

The ministry is also considering the REITs model for monetisation of immovable enemy property.

Although market regulator Sebi had notified REITs guidelines in 2014, the market for this instrument for investment in real estate is yet to pick up.


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