Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 Dec 2019 08:08

Kati wrote:
nandakumar wrote:Survey by definition is a sample and extrapolation of its findings to the universe. But the universe itself already stands measured. But if someone insists that because the extrapolated characteristics for the universe as derived from the sample are at variance with the observed characteristics of the universe, the observed characteristics of the universe must be deemed to be false is to turn the notion of truth on its head. I mean, all statisticians agree that even the most rigorously selected sample may end up not capturing the characteristics of the population. That is why there is something called a 'sampling error'. Of course if the point is that the methodology for measuring the aggregate GDP data (universe) is somehow flawed, then there must at least be an indication of what might be wrong with it. There was none in the story.
Though mostly I'm a passive BRFite, I'm going to stick my neck out here.

I would like to know how the surveys are done, who carries out the surveys, and using what method are the samples drawn. ....

The entire exercise is dubious at the best, and treacherous at worst.

May be I'm oversimplifying the whole exercise, but being a graduate of Bharat's premier Statistical Institute, of which NSSO was a part till 1980,
I have seen how the "surveyors" stayed home, played cards, and then cooked up numbers. On top of it, Bharat's economy is 50% unorganized, and hence always stays out of any so called "official surveys".

To put it simply, desi survey data are horribly unreliable. Whatever figures we see are from some organized sectors (like - power generation, consumer goods under the tax net, automotive, cinema ticket sales, trackable export-import, etc.), a vast, vast segment of the economy stays outside the official figures.

I would like to know answers to my above questions.

I don't know much about the operations of NSSO which is responsible for conducting these surveys. There are field units located in various parts of the country. They in turn outsource the data gathering work. A small sample of the sample is revisited for verification. On paper the process is rigorous. But that doesn't mean that the results always reflect the characteristics of the population. These surveys I think serve two purposes. It throws light on policy gaps . One such example is somewhat dated. In the 70s, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) set up a vector control centre in Pondicherry. Why? Because the place reported the highest incidence of filariasis (elephant foot) among all regions in the country. Another example I can think of is this. The aggregate data might show that GDP is rising. But does it translate into more equitable distributions of such income? If not what policy initiatives that need to be undertaken to address unequal distribution? The other reason such surveys are undertaken is to help identify how the population measurement needs to be refined. My principal objection about survey results is that the media uses it to question the accuracy of measurement of aggregate data without any evidence of where the measurement is erroneous.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 Dec 2019 12:19

Karan M wrote:Re:12 firms expressing interest, that's a pretty low number and just shows the GOI started very late, and have done less (than what has been expected) so far. The aim to get at least some of the new list of 325 firms to shift to India should be a priority.

Karan M Saar,
The main reasons US companies, which are leaving the panda-land, and not coming to India are multifaceted.
First of all, the transportation cost to send finished products to US and the western hemisphere. Secondly, they want a regime that
is ruthless in suppressing the labor unrest, labor's demand for higher wage, benefits etc. Precisely for these two reasons the companies
are flocking to a neighboring small country which is in cloud nine at the expense of the panda-land. I'm glad to note that under NaMo
Bharat is paying much closer attention to this particular small country, and I'm more than happy to see direct flights being started from
eastern Indian metro to two of their main cities about a month ago (six weeks, to be precise). We have a lot to learn from this small country
which defeated a superpower after thirty years of war.
(For professional reasons I visit the SEA countries a lot, - sort of my second home, and have a fairly good understanding of this region firsthand.)

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 Dec 2019 12:35

nandakumar wrote:
Kati wrote:
Though mostly I'm a passive BRFite, I'm going to stick my neck out here.

I would like to know how the surveys are done, who carries out the surveys, and using what method are the samples drawn. ....

The entire exercise is dubious at the best, and treacherous at worst.

May be I'm oversimplifying the whole exercise, but being a graduate of Bharat's premier Statistical Institute, of which NSSO was a part till 1980,
I have seen how the "surveyors" stayed home, played cards, and then cooked up numbers. On top of it, Bharat's economy is 50% unorganized, and hence always stays out of any so called "official surveys".

To put it simply, desi survey data are horribly unreliable. Whatever figures we see are from some organized sectors (like - power generation, consumer goods under the tax net, automotive, cinema ticket sales, trackable export-import, etc.), a vast, vast segment of the economy stays outside the official figures.

I would like to know answers to my above questions.
I don't know much about the operations of NSSO which is responsible for conducting these surveys. There are field units located in various parts of the country. They in turn outsource the data gathering work. A small sample of the sample is revisited for verification. On paper the process is rigorous. But that doesn't mean that the results always reflect the characteristics of the population. These surveys I think serve two purposes. It throws light on policy gaps . One such example is somewhat dated. In the 70s, the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) set up a vector control centre in Pondicherry. Why? Because the place reported the highest incidence of filariasis (elephant foot) among all regions in the country. Another example I can think of is this. The aggregate data might show that GDP is rising. But does it translate into more equitable distributions of such income? If not what policy initiatives that need to be undertaken to address unequal distribution? The other reason such surveys are undertaken is to help identify how the population measurement needs to be refined. My principal objection about survey results is that the media uses it to question the accuracy of measurement of aggregate data without any evidence of where the measurement is erroneous.

Nandakumar Saar,
I very much doubt the field data being collected by NSSO. Yes, the govt has set up local level field offices to collect rigorous data, and the primary data are supposed to be verifies by subsampling the original samples at the second level. But the whole process is dubious. All the collected info is then sent to CSO for processing, but if the field data is erroneous then the entire exercise is erroneous. CSO then supplies the info, among other things, to parliament as govt's answers to oppositions' questions.
ICMR's specific field study is quite different from the NSSO's data collection, and specific entities do set up localized data collection mechanism to address specific problems which are much much more reliable.
If CSO sets up another independent body to verify the NSSO's field data then it might be good. For example, this secondary body would look into the field level data, and if it finds it dubious then it would go back to the area, take another sample, and match it with the initially reported data. If there is an anomaly (more than the margin of sampling variation) then the local NSSO field office should be held liable, with the potential of firing the local field workers.

It is my habit to interact with grass-root level people, - urban domestic workers / helpers, car drivers, rickshaw-wallahs, auto-drivers, street side vendors, etc. to gauge the economic condition from their perspective, and compare those with the past observations. So far, amid all the projected doom and gloom, I haven't seen an iota of economic depression at the grass-root level people. May be I'm missing out something really big in rural areas, especially among the farmers. In the eastern part of Bharat, you can understand the local economic mood from the fish-markets, and I'm happy to report that the fish-markets are going strong.

Kati · Post by **Kati** » 01 Dec 2019 12:41

Just a little addendum to my observations on data collection....

In fact, the data which is put out by the panda-land is highly dubious because they are always fudged by the central leadership to paint a rosy picture. For the last several years, the western financial institutions got very suspicious about these panda-data. so they did a reverse data study. They looked at the more reliable component-wise data, such as - air traffic, power generation, cargo shipment of goods to other countries, oil shipment to panda-land, etc etc, and used these to regress the country's GDP. Surprise, surprise, ... there is/was a gap pf about 2% in growth. What it means is that when the panda-land reports a GDP growth of 7.5%, the actual growth is probably 5.5%.

nandakumar · Post by **nandakumar** » 01 Dec 2019 12:59

Kati wrote:Just a little addendum to my observations on data collection....

In fact, the data which is put out by the panda-land is highly dubious because they are always fudged by the central leadership to paint a rosy picture. For the last several years, the western financial institutions got very suspicious about these panda-data. so they did a reverse data study. They looked at the more reliable component-wise data, such as - air traffic, power generation, cargo shipment of goods to other countries, oil shipment to panda-land, etc etc, and used these to regress the country's GDP. Surprise, surprise, ... there is/was a gap pf about 2% in growth. What it means is that when the panda-land reports a GDP growth of 7.5%, the actual growth is probably 5.5%.

The Chinese Premier Li Kequiang is on record conceding that Chinese GDP data is often dubious. Having said that that they do produce 10 times more cement, steel you name it the numbers are big.

JayS · Post by **JayS** » 01 Dec 2019 14:59

Karan M wrote:Re:12 firms expressing interest, that's a pretty low number and just shows the GOI started very late, and have done less (than what has been expected) so far. The aim to get at least some of the new list of 325 firms to shift to India should be a priority.

If we can bring these 12 quickly in, more will follow. We need to show by example that we are willing to walk the extra mile. Given our lacking infra, we are going to have to give concessions elsewhere and use tools like import duty cunningly so at least the companies with a good market share in India finds it more profitable to manufacture their products within India. If its cheaper for India, it will likely be cheaper for the West too.

In other news-

GST revenue collection for November stands at Rs. 1,03,492 crore, crossing the Rs 1 lakh crore mark once again; 3rd highest monthly collection since #GST introduction

Apart from two months, GST collection has shown growth in every other month Y-o-Y. I did rought number calculations. Till date the total collection is about +3.5% compared to last year same period. If the trend continues, GST collection will fall short of its target of 13.71L Cr by close to 1.5L Cr.

The total tax collection is set to be much lower than expected. Marginally higher than last year at best, a bit lower than last year at worst (considering corporate tax breaks and meager growth).

Aditya_V · Post by **Aditya_V** » 01 Dec 2019 15:50

With the new GSTR2A rule, people are forced to may way more taxes as they are able to take proper credit since many small vendors are filing quarterly returns.

Manish_Sharma · Post by **Manish_Sharma** » 01 Dec 2019 17:48

Ooops wrong thread

Supratik · Post by **Supratik** » 01 Dec 2019 22:29

Perhaps early signs of economy reviving. But this is just one month collection. Need to watch the next few months.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 00:32

Kati wrote:Karan M Saar,
The main reasons US companies, which are leaving the panda-land, and not coming to India are multifaceted.
First of all, the transportation cost to send finished products to US and the western hemisphere. Secondly, they want a regime that
is ruthless in suppressing the labor unrest, labor's demand for higher wage, benefits etc. Precisely for these two reasons the companies
are flocking to a neighboring small country which is in cloud nine at the expense of the panda-land. I'm glad to note that under NaMo
Bharat is paying much closer attention to this particular small country, and I'm more than happy to see direct flights being started from
eastern Indian metro to two of their main cities about a month ago (six weeks, to be precise). We have a lot to learn from this small country
which defeated a superpower after thirty years of war.
(For professional reasons I visit the SEA countries a lot, - sort of my second home, and have a fairly good understanding of this region firsthand.)

Please no saar for me. Appreciate the time you took for the detailed report. But the whole issue is this. If we can't afford a compelling value prop for firms to move from PRC to India, then we lose. So we have to give them something above and beyond Vn or other places offer them.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 00:33

nandakumar wrote:
Kati wrote:Just a little addendum to my observations on data collection....

In fact, the data which is put out by the panda-land is highly dubious because they are always fudged by the central leadership to paint a rosy picture. For the last several years, the western financial institutions got very suspicious about these panda-data. so they did a reverse data study. They looked at the more reliable component-wise data, such as - air traffic, power generation, cargo shipment of goods to other countries, oil shipment to panda-land, etc etc, and used these to regress the country's GDP. Surprise, surprise, ... there is/was a gap pf about 2% in growth. What it means is that when the panda-land reports a GDP growth of 7.5%, the actual growth is probably 5.5%.
The Chinese Premier Li Kequiang is on record conceding that Chinese GDP data is often dubious. Having said that that they do produce 10 times more cement, steel you name it the numbers are big.

Cement, steel and some of these "usual" figures to estimate GDP are dubious because they chase figures put out by the party as targets and hence destroy economic value by over producing. (Then they seek to dump it in India and elsewhere).

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 00:34

JayS wrote:
Karan M wrote:Re:12 firms expressing interest, that's a pretty low number and just shows the GOI started very late, and have done less (than what has been expected) so far. The aim to get at least some of the new list of 325 firms to shift to India should be a priority.
If we can bring these 12 quickly in, more will follow. We need to show by example that we are willing to walk the extra mile. Given our lacking infra, we are going to have to give concessions elsewhere and use tools like import duty cunningly so at least the companies with a good market share in India finds it more profitable to manufacture their products within India. If its cheaper for India, it will likely be cheaper for the West too.

Agree completely, but it has to be done on a war footing. Opportunities like the present one don't come often.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 02 Dec 2019 00:38

Panasonic sold its semicon business to a taiwanese semicon company for $250mn recently. We are not agile enough, active enough to seek our opportunities and take advantage. We should've had a team watching the us-china tiff like a hawk and run to taiwan to get them to move their prc plants to india and offered whatever they wanted, land, power, tax, water at concessional rates. These are the skilled mass job creators. A motherboard assembly factory, a cellphone board making factory etc etc can employ hundreds, thousands. And once moved, we can get more to move and tie in with the multi-year plan to move more and more component manufacturing here. Anyway there is no initiative right now to build a fab at all.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 02 Dec 2019 02:59

Prasad wrote:Panasonic sold its semicon business to a taiwanese semicon company for $250mn recently. We are not agile enough, active enough to seek our opportunities and take advantage. We should've had a team watching the us-china tiff like a hawk and run to taiwan to get them to move their prc plants to india and offered whatever they wanted, land, power, tax, water at concessional rates. These are the skilled mass job creators. A motherboard assembly factory, a cellphone board making factory etc etc can employ hundreds, thousands. And once moved, we can get more to move and tie in with the multi-year plan to move more and more component manufacturing here. Anyway there is no initiative right now to build a fab at all.

They are all low end jobs, comparable to shoe and T-shirt manufacturing. The same goes for electronics etc.
The real money is in technology and machines that make the semi.

chetak · Post by **chetak** » 02 Dec 2019 03:28

what do you do when a country inimical to you is allowed to do this

some of their "sales" garner 50-70 crores in a single day

twitter

Indians spent more than Rs. 1.70 lakh crore on Chinese, South Korean branded mobile phones, consumer electronics in 2018-19
growth of 35%+ from 2017-18.

5 brands – Xiaomi, Samsung, Vivo, Realme, Oppo – together controlled 87.3% of desi smartphone market

https://m.economictimes.com/tech/hardwa ... 302140.cms …

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 02 Dec 2019 04:38

I am routinely laughed at for buying Micromax phones in my company. I tell them that your kids Will be coolies rather than designers and innovators.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 05:04

Rishirishi wrote:
Prasad wrote:Panasonic sold its semicon business to a taiwanese semicon company for $250mn recently. We are not agile enough, active enough to seek our opportunities and take advantage. We should've had a team watching the us-china tiff like a hawk and run to taiwan to get them to move their prc plants to india and offered whatever they wanted, land, power, tax, water at concessional rates. These are the skilled mass job creators. A motherboard assembly factory, a cellphone board making factory etc etc can employ hundreds, thousands. And once moved, we can get more to move and tie in with the multi-year plan to move more and more component manufacturing here. Anyway there is no initiative right now to build a fab at all.
They are all low end jobs, comparable to shoe and T-shirt manufacturing. The same goes for electronics etc.
The real money is in technology and machines that make the semi.

Did you understand what he said? You start from one end of the spectrum and then move up.

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 02 Dec 2019 05:53

Karan M wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
They are all low end jobs, comparable to shoe and T-shirt manufacturing. The same goes for electronics etc.
The real money is in technology and machines that make the semi.
Did you understand what he said? You start from one end of the spectrum and then move up.

The thing is you dont move up just like that. the companies who make machines are very cleaver and only outsouce the low end factory jobs. Foxcon makes millions of smartphones, but cant make one of their own. Then you have the likes of Xiaomi and Oppo. They simply purchase the parts and assemble the phones.
It is well knows that Samsung and Panasonic controlles the Panels maket. ASML of holland are for example the world leaders in making the machines that make the semi conductors. They do not make a single semi conductor, but do have a 10 billion dollar turnover. China has actually not moved much up the value chain. China only have a few handfull of brands like Huawei and Lenovo. They can hardly be called the world leaders. I think India is actually doing pretty good. Exporting IT services for a cool +100 billion dollars, with only people sitting in front of desks. But India can do better fro shure. Dont think the way to go is cheap manufacturing. Perhaps focus on domestic productivity, product design and marketing.

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 05:57

Dude, you simply don't understand. The ecosystem develops from the basics until and unless the Govt of the day jumps in and sponsors huge tech transfers or critical in-house development. Even at that level, the employment numbers are miniscule.
The first step are assembly factories. Then they set up, provide the justification for ancillary industries. Then comes packaging.
Applied Materials, ASML are merely the photo-litho providers. There are many many firms from packaging to rare earth/gas providers, to assembly jig manufacturers to tooling providers who allow electronics firms to thrive. We should get as many of these as possible. Whether you think "cheap manufacturing is not required" is besides the point. We need mass employment and services market in India is already saturated. There are so many functions in the development and manufacture of any electronics item, that it'd be a day and a half to type them out. China has bits and pieces of nearly the entire value chain. It is an incredible achievement, leveraging western greed and with their consistent strategy.
Who says, BTW Huawei and Lenovo and Oppo etc are not leaders? Their revenue, margin figures are nothing to sneeze at. They are going head to head with ICT firms in providing robust, inexpensive solutions based off of COTS gear and their inhouse tailored items, and are putting the squeeze on critical US sectors. Do you seriously think the entire play against Huawei was because of espionage and had nothing to do with commercial concerns? If so, you would be mistaken.

titash · Post by **titash** » 02 Dec 2019 06:06

Rishirishi wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Did you understand what he said? You start from one end of the spectrum and then move up.
The thing is you dont move up just like that. the companies who make machines are very cleaver and only outsouce the low end factory jobs. Foxcon makes millions of smartphones, but cant make one of their own. Then you have the likes of Xiaomi and Oppo. They simply purchase the parts and assemble the phones.
It is well knows that Samsung and Panasonic controlles the Panels maket. ASML of holland are for example the world leaders in making the machines that make the semi conductors. They do not make a single semi conductor, but do have a 10 billion dollar turnover. China has actually not moved much up the value chain. China only have a few handfull of brands like Huawei and Lenovo. They can hardly be called the world leaders. I think India is actually doing pretty good. Exporting IT services for a cool +100 billion dollars, with only people sitting in front of desks. But India can do better fro shure. Dont think the way to go is cheap manufacturing. Perhaps focus on domestic productivity, product design and marketing.

Not entirely true. You have to start *somewhere*. The trick is to move up the value chain and not get comfortable doing (only) the high margin labor intensive work. There needs to be ancillary value creation - chemicals, spares, and then gradually moving on to new innovative products etc.

You can't design and build a tesla if you've never built/assembled a maruti

Of course you shouldn't get stuck - the Indian IT sector is still rolling in the cash at 40-50% margins doing labor arbitrage. Should have some appetite for investment with a 10 year horizon not looking at Q3/Q4 only

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 06:25

Plus, you cant do the high value work completely inhouse if the rest is all missing or is abroad. The dependence keeps increasing. A big reason why despite the so called cost arbitrage, the smart players like Apple keep a lot of stuff inhouse and even fabless design houses have special relationships with some foundries as they can't afford it inhouse. Everyone secretly wants vertical integration, its just they cant afford it, and virtue signal that it's a vice. AMD spun off Global Foundries because Intel outspent them, not because they wanted to, PR apart.

yensoy · Post by **yensoy** » 02 Dec 2019 06:44

kvraghav wrote:I am routinely laughed at for buying Micromax phones in my company. I tell them that your kids Will be coolies rather than designers and innovators.

Huh? These are low-end kit phones purchased in CKD/SKD form from Shenzhen and "assembled" in India. There is very little value addition locally other than branding. You are probably helping more by buying Samsung or Apple who have credible labs in India.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 02 Dec 2019 06:50

At least some one makes the profit here. The same is the case with TATA cars. My Hyundai diesel engine has gone kaput after 70k but my tata safari still goes strong at 1.5 lakh km. Apparently British have made us accept we are inferior to everybody. The labs we are all talking about are nothing but IT coolies. This is exactly why it is an issue to find jobs in technical sector for people above 35 years of age.

vimal · Post by **vimal** » 02 Dec 2019 07:29

iPhone is also now assembled in India. https://www.indiatoday.in/technology/ne ... 2019-10-16

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 02 Dec 2019 08:21

kvraghav wrote:At least some one makes the profit here. The same is the case with TATA cars. My Hyundai diesel engine has gone kaput after 70k but my tata safari still goes strong at 1.5 lakh km. Apparently British have made us accept we are inferior to everybody. The labs we are all talking about are nothing but IT coolies. This is exactly why it is an issue to find jobs in technical sector for people above 35 years of age.

I am not sure at all these folks are "IT coolies" which is a pretty pointlessly demeaning term btw. There are many desi engrs working in complex fields now in several firms.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 02 Dec 2019 08:32

Forex reserve hits fresh record high of $449 billion.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 02 Dec 2019 10:55

Rishi
Yeah these aren't the higher end jobs that are what everybody is after. However, we need jobs at all levels. Heck, we need more jobs at the lower level because we have so many people here. And make no mistake, we are still nowhere near even the Chinese when it comes to making machine tools and machinery. Take 3d printing for instance. The Chinese are there too, with products that are cheaper than the german and american companies but across teh board in india, the view is that while cheaper at the outset, support is terrible and that is no can do for production. How long do you think they'll take to move up?
Even in semicon manufacturing, look at what happened to Aixtron. Obama torpedo's chinese takeover bid and they ran roughshod and pretty much bullied them out of the chinese market entirely and now are selling their product at lower rates everywhere.

We had the oppurtunity to get a massive lead in the early 80s but missed the bus. It was a difficult decision then. It is a difficult decision now. Imagine ok'ing a $5bn plan and tomorrow the government changes and some utter luddite comes in and says save the environment, we're going to stop this project like in mah.

Prasad · Post by **Prasad** » 02 Dec 2019 10:55

Karan M wrote:
kvraghav wrote:At least some one makes the profit here. The same is the case with TATA cars. My Hyundai diesel engine has gone kaput after 70k but my tata safari still goes strong at 1.5 lakh km. Apparently British have made us accept we are inferior to everybody. The labs we are all talking about are nothing but IT coolies. This is exactly why it is an issue to find jobs in technical sector for people above 35 years of age.
I am not sure at all these folks are "IT coolies" which is a pretty pointlessly demeaning term btw. There are many desi engrs working in complex fields now in several firms.

One look at PW, GE is enough tbh.

kvraghav · Post by **kvraghav** » 02 Dec 2019 11:02

You mean lot of core research is done out of India by these firms? Let us count NRI out of it since their earnings never contribute to the tax bucket of India.

alexis · Post by **alexis** » 02 Dec 2019 14:52

Rishirishi wrote:
Karan M wrote:
Did you understand what he said? You start from one end of the spectrum and then move up.
The thing is you dont move up just like that. the companies who make machines are very cleaver and only outsouce the low end factory jobs. Foxcon makes millions of smartphones, but cant make one of their own. Then you have the likes of Xiaomi and Oppo. They simply purchase the parts and assemble the phones.
It is well knows that Samsung and Panasonic controlles the Panels maket. ASML of holland are for example the world leaders in making the machines that make the semi conductors. They do not make a single semi conductor, but do have a 10 billion dollar turnover. China has actually not moved much up the value chain. China only have a few handfull of brands like Huawei and Lenovo. They can hardly be called the world leaders. I think India is actually doing pretty good. Exporting IT services for a cool +100 billion dollars, with only people sitting in front of desks. But India can do better fro shure. Dont think the way to go is cheap manufacturing. Perhaps focus on domestic productivity, product design and marketing.

Apart from what others have pointed out, i will just say "perfect is the enemy of the good". Something i find in the procurement of defense services too.

We need to start somewhere.

mahadevbhu · Post by **mahadevbhu** » 02 Dec 2019 17:07

Kati wrote:Just a little addendum to my observations on data collection....

In fact, the data which is put out by the panda-land is highly dubious because they are always fudged by the central leadership to paint a rosy picture. For the last several years, the western financial institutions got very suspicious about these panda-data. so they did a reverse data study. They looked at the more reliable component-wise data, such as - air traffic, power generation, cargo shipment of goods to other countries, oil shipment to panda-land, etc etc, and used these to regress the country's GDP. Surprise, surprise, ... there is/was a gap pf about 2% in growth. What it means is that when the panda-land reports a GDP growth of 7.5%, the actual growth is probably 5.5%.

I believe Chola some time back was talking about Chinese consumption data - that is what has scared the americans, not the growth and all, but the real consumption data dude. That is what shows that the economy is a giant and scares the americans shitless.

disha · Post by **disha** » 02 Dec 2019 22:31

mahadevbhu wrote: I believe Chola some time back was talking about Chinese consumption data - that is what has scared the americans, not the growth and all, but the real consumption data dude. That is what shows that the economy is a giant and scares the americans shitless.

Consumption of what Mahadevbhu'ji ? Panda-chana does not count.

On the Indian economy, please breakdown the consumption data. Everybody for example needs chaddi-banian. In India, it might be Rupa. There was a serious article going around in one of the tabloids masqueriding itself as economic times that people are buying less of chaddi-banians and hence Indian economy is sinking.

So yes consumption matters, consumption data matters and analysis of consumption data matters. Till then it is all panda-channa.

syam · Post by **syam** » 02 Dec 2019 23:27

noob question,
our government owns some semiconductor tech for our strategic purposes, right? why don't they open commercial branch and churn out chips for regular use. It might create an eco system. They don't have to make 7nm ones. most of the devices don't need even 10nm ones. Am I missing something?

bhavani · Post by **bhavani** » 02 Dec 2019 23:36

What we lack is brand building. We Indians tend to cheapen our own products, whether it is Rupa baniyan or IT work. Amrikis are masters at building brand and value. For ex: under-armour now a huge brand from next to nothing in a few years. I bought a under armour gym shirt for 23$ on Sale in US. The same t-shirt is being sold to young asian ( korea, thai and japani) yuppies for 3000 baht in Siam paragon bangkok. That is 100 dollars. They make the tshirt in vietnam for probably close to 4$. Our Rupa will always be Rupa. Next rupa material will be used to make some yuppie brands and world will buy it for 10 times the price. Why we cheapen our own chains. Our IT companies are hell bent on only fighting on prices, under cutting each other. We dont fight based on value, for ex accenture rarely budges on pricing but will fight based on value chain.

Peregrine · Post by **Peregrine** » 03 Dec 2019 01:23

NCR-based realestate group admits to Rs 3,000 crore black money after I-T raids

HIGHLIGHTS

- Last week, searches and surveys were conducted at over 25 premises of the group

- Cash ledgers containing details of unaccounted cash receipts of more than Rs 250 crore have also been found and seized. The group also did not pay taxes on several property transactions: CBDT

- It said 32 bank lockers have also been sealed after the raids.

NEW DELHI: An undisclosed income of over Rs 3,000 crore has been "admitted" by a NCR-based real estate group after the Income Tax department raided it recently, the CBDT said in a statement on Monday.

Though the Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) did not identify the firm, officials sources claimed it to be the Oriental India Group.

Last week, searches and surveys were conducted at over 25 premises of the group that has interests in infrastructure, mining and real estate, according to the statement.

"Cash ledgers containing details of unaccounted cash receipts of more than Rs 250 crore have also been found and seized. The group also did not pay taxes on several property transactions.

"Unaccounted assets of Rs 3.75 crore have been seized. The group has admitted undisclosed income of more than Rs 3,000 crore and agreed to pay tax on the same," the statement said.

The CBDT frames policy for the I-T department.

The statement said 32 bank lockers have also been sealed after the raids.

Cheers

Rishirishi · Post by **Rishirishi** » 03 Dec 2019 05:47

Rishi
Yeah these aren't the higher end jobs that are what everybody is after. However, we need jobs at all levels. Heck, we need more jobs at the lower level because we have so many people here. And make no mistake, we are still nowhere near even the Chinese when it comes to making machine tools and machinery. Take 3d printing for instance. The Chinese are there too, with products that are cheaper than the german and american companies but across teh board in india, the view is that while cheaper at the outset, support is terrible and that is no can do for production. How long do you think they'll take to move up?
Even in semicon manufacturing, look at what happened to Aixtron. Obama torpedo's chinese takeover bid and they ran roughshod and pretty much bullied them out of the chinese market entirely and now are selling their product at lower rates everywhere.

We had the oppurtunity to get a massive lead in the early 80s but missed the bus. It was a difficult decision then. It is a difficult decision now. Imagine ok'ing a $5bn plan and tomorrow the government changes and some utter luddite comes in and says save the environment, we're going to stop this project like in mah

I have travelled extensively in China (Shenzen, Gungzhou, xiamin, Shanghai, Hanzhou etc ) and visited several factories. All I saw was low end jobs. The owner is about the only one who makes a decent living.

Take T-shirts for example. The price of a T-shirt was arround 1USD. Out of that material cost is 0,6ish USD. The labours were making peanuts and the dude was making about 10-12 cents per t-shirt. Even after manufacturing 1 million of them, his profit was only 100 to 120K. Out of this he has to cover risk of damage etc. Still, he makes a nice living, but what about the 50 odd staff, who live in slave like conditions.

Some hep dude in US will put a brand on this,and turn the 1 dollar thing into a 15dollar thing, or 15 million dollars for the 1 million T-shirt.
The money today is in technology, intelectual property, design and marketing. It is not in contract manufacturing. India actually has a shortage of trained labour. The vocational training is poor. The universities produce muggers, not intelectuals. Lack of water, roads, power, and leagal framework drain people out. Poor living conditions are the greatest productivity thiefs, in India. Imagine what Bangalore would have been with access to high quality graduates and half decent infrastructure?

Eduction systematically favours the muggers and sort out the crative thinkers. In stead of nurturing creativity, the kids are forced to work so hard, that all joy of life is taken away from them.

So, no I do not think mass manufacturing will make India a better place. In stead focus on the people, their skilles, living condition, and a just legal system. The rest will come by itself.

Kaivalya · Post by **Kaivalya** » 03 Dec 2019 06:41

Rishirishi wrote:
Rishi
Yeah these aren't the higher end jobs that are what everybody is after. However, we need jobs at all levels. Heck, we need more jobs at the lower level because we have so many people here. And make no mistake, we are still nowhere near even the Chinese when it comes to making machine tools and machinery. Take 3d printing for instance. The Chinese are there too, with products that are cheaper than the german and american companies but across teh board in india, the view is that while cheaper at the outset, support is terrible and that is no can do for production. How long do you think they'll take to move up?
Even in semicon manufacturing, look at what happened to Aixtron. Obama torpedo's chinese takeover bid and they ran roughshod and pretty much bullied them out of the chinese market entirely and now are selling their product at lower rates everywhere.

We had the oppurtunity to get a massive lead in the early 80s but missed the bus. It was a difficult decision then. It is a difficult decision now. Imagine ok'ing a $5bn plan and tomorrow the government changes and some utter luddite comes in and says save the environment, we're going to stop this project like in mah
I have travelled extensively in China (Shenzen, Gungzhou, xiamin, Shanghai, Hanzhou etc ) and visited several factories. All I saw was low end jobs. The owner is about the only one who makes a decent living.

Take T-shirts for example. The price of a T-shirt was arround 1USD. Out of that material cost is 0,6ish USD. The labours were making peanuts and the dude was making about 10-12 cents per t-shirt. Even after manufacturing 1 million of them, his profit was only 100 to 120K. Out of this he has to cover risk of damage etc. Still, he makes a nice living, but what about the 50 odd staff, who live in slave like conditions.

Some hep dude in US will put a brand on this,and turn the 1 dollar thing into a 15dollar thing, or 15 million dollars for the 1 million T-shirt.
The money today is in technology, intelectual property, design and marketing. It is not in contract manufacturing. India actually has a shortage of trained labour. The vocational training is poor. The universities produce muggers, not intelectuals. Lack of water, roads, power, and leagal framework drain people out. Poor living conditions are the greatest productivity thiefs, in India. Imagine what Bangalore would have been with access to high quality graduates and half decent infrastructure?

Eduction systematically favours the muggers and sort out the crative thinkers. In stead of nurturing creativity, the kids are forced to work so hard, that all joy of life is taken away from them.

So, no I do not think mass manufacturing will make India a better place. In stead focus on the people, their skilles, living condition, and a just legal system. The rest will come by itself.

Rishirishiji - The intent is to have everyone be creative,knowledge workers etc. To move the economic needle quickly we need all kinds of jobs including the hard working jobs. The assumption is : when someone qualifies for a creative job they will take it when available. The only scenario that is not welcome is : people commiting suicide without **any** opportunity. Appreciate the first hand account from sweat shops in Shenzhen etc. Hopefully we can create both kinds of jobs

Karan M · Post by **Karan M** » 03 Dec 2019 10:15

Please ask the mass manufacturing dude in a sweatshop in Shenzhen what the alternatives were?
Fact - many of these folks save up, go back home, start something. In India, we are too dependent on the services job to do that.
Second, we are not even talking of rock bottom prices to compete internationally. We are talking of supplanting imports which after duties etc are not so cheap, but still take our market because we have nothing similar. That's the point. The domestic Indian market is itself huge.

Vikas · Post by **Vikas** » 03 Dec 2019 12:04

I think Chinese model has been unnecessarily denigrated despite the fact that they are now the backend factory of the world and have pulled more people out of the poverty than any place in earth in such short span of time.
The proof of pudding is in the fact that many countries in and around China are trying to replicate a similar model.
In the same breath, Indian IT model too has been mocked at. It isn't that the founders like Murthy, Premji or Shiv Nadar or even Ratan Tata were not keen on moving up the chain but once you reach the glass ceiling, The task becomes very hard.
Why India is not producing a Microsoft or a google or even a WhatsApp is not because we are not creative or innovative enough but we hadn't reached the level on the ladder where everything just falls in place.

Personal story: My neighborhood Kirana wala wanted my help in developing an app which would help folks around place order directly and he could deliver it at their home but his workforce is busy with operations in the store, don't have vehicles for delivery except for a scooty. On top if someone has to use app to buy grocery, might as well order from Grofers or BB or even Amazon. So back to being dependent upon foot fall or accept order on piece of paper and then deliver it by hand.

Vips · Post by **Vips** » 03 Dec 2019 18:49

Merchandise and services exports rose 8% to $538 bn in 2018-19: Goyal.

he value of India's overall exports rose about 8 per cent to $538.07 billion during 2018-19, Parliament was informed on Monday.

In a reply to a question in the Lok Sabha, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal also said that as per the Foreign Trade Policy 2015-20, the government aims to increase the country's export of merchandise and services to $900 billion in 2019-20 and raise India's share in world exports (goods and services) to 3.5 per cent.

According to data provided by the minister, India has been registering a growth for the past three years in terms of exports of merchandise and services.

In 2013-14, exports valued at $466.23 billion. It grew to $468.46 billion in 2014-15 and fell to 416.60 billion in 2015-16 and again went up to $440.05 billion in 2016-17.

The country's overall exports of merchandise and services rose to $538.07 billion in 2018-19 from $498.63 billion in 2017-18, up 7.90 per cent.