Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vinod » 02 Apr 2021 02:04

Parts of Europe are still under lockdown. That will have a dampening effect as well on global economy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 02 Apr 2021 02:06

VST Tillers Tractors Ltd reports 91.74% YoY jump in sales for March 2021

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 02 Apr 2021 02:16

Look out for March 2021 wholesale PV and CV deliveries. Tata is reported to have had their best month in history, their PV sales are up 2x compared to March 2019, I am not comparing against Mar 2020 for obvious reasons. Overall, the recovery albeit aided by unprecedented liquidity infusion has been very impressive. Hope we can sustain it throughout the year. The only sectors that are suffering currently are commercial real estate, medium to high priced retailers and hotels, everything else is back to normal and it shows in the GST collection.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 06 Apr 2021 07:49

India's March gold imports surge 471% to a record 160 T.

Higher imports by the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, which have corrected nearly 17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020.

The surge in imports could increase India’s trade deficit and pressure the rupee.

India imported a record 321 tonnes in the March quarter, up from 124 tonnes a year ago, the source said.

The source asked to remain anonymous since he is not authorised to speak to the media.

In value terms, March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago, he said.



This is insane. We are deficit financing the import of gold. It is high time Indians realize that Gold beyond a reasonable limit as investment only serves to lock up money from circulating in the economy.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 06 Apr 2021 08:59

Gross FDI inflows hits record $72 billion for first 10 months of FY2021
Gross foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in India rose 15% year-on-year in the first ten months of this fiscal to a record $72.12 billion.
Gross inflows, which include FDI in equities, reinvested earnings, equity capital of unincorporated bodies and other capital, were boosted by an almost 46% surge, year on year, witnessed in the computer software and hardware segments. Analysts have pointed out that a sizable chunk of these was drawn by Reliance Jio alone. Construction activities (infrastructure) were the second-biggest drawer of FDI, with a 13.4% share in inflows, followed by services (7.8%).

According to a report by Unctad in January, India and China were two major “outliers” in a gloomy year for FDI, as global inflows plunged 42% on year in the calendar year 2020 to $859 billion, the lowest level since the 1990s.

Defying the Covid-19 pandemic: Buoyant exports of ‘core’ products signal trade edge
India’s exports of ‘core’ products, or goods excluding petroleum and gems & jewellery, have accelerated at a quicker pace than that of overall merchandise exports month after month since May 2019, belying even Covid-induced disruptions.

The ‘core’ exports, which reflect the economy’s competitiveness in external trade, grew 60.7%, year-on-year, in March to $27.3 billion, compared with a record 58.2% jump in overall goods exports to $34 billion, according to a preliminary estimate of the commerce ministry. Of course, the record surge in March was greatly aided by a base effect (exports had crashed in March 2020 due to the pandemic and the beginning of a lockdown). Nevertheless, the pace of growth was still encouraging.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 06 Apr 2021 09:38

Suraj wrote:This is a complex topic with multiple parts. Historically, PPF/EPF were the main savings mechanisms in a simple economy where individuals did not have much recourse to advanced savings and investment tools. The rates were set and then the government worried about how to ensure it met those rates. Of course this showed up in the form of chronic high inflation, high cost of capital and crowding out effects.

<snip>

The US did a similar move from pension plans to 401Ks starting in the mid 1980s, and it was not an easy process either. The Chinese also did something similar starting in the late 90s, not long before us. The sanest approach is to let those who contributed on the basis of a defined benefit plan to accrue the same. Those who started midway though the switch from defined benefit to defined contribution systems can gain from both on a prorata basis. The youngest lot will work within a defined contribution system. This means the change will not be overnight - it might take a generation to fully transition.


For the US it has lead to the gutting of the lower middle class for over 30 years now. Passbook savings and corporate pension plans, relatively small, were evenly distributed, but something you could count on. Through the early 1990s a solid 5% could be had in passbook savings and even a pension from companies who practiced corporate responsibility as company executives had seen hard times from the 1940s onward. Today the US has a vast discrepancy in 401K participation. The upper middle class, AGI > $200K/yr has benefited the most, but those who earn between $50K-$100K/yr have a much lower contribution rate and are far more dependent on Social Security. The GINI coefficient of income inequality is higher in the US than it is in India.

This is something we don't want to see happen in the Indian middle class. FDs are the vehicle for primary savings by India's middle class and elderly. Now the US is talking about the USPS starting savings and banking for the poor and lower middle class, and is contemplating ways for people to save.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby bharathp » 06 Apr 2021 10:15

Vips wrote:India's March gold imports surge 471% to a record 160 T.

Higher imports by the world’s second-biggest bullion consumer could support benchmark gold prices, which have corrected nearly 17% from an all-time high of $2,072 in August 2020.

The surge in imports could increase India’s trade deficit and pressure the rupee.

India imported a record 321 tonnes in the March quarter, up from 124 tonnes a year ago, the source said.

The source asked to remain anonymous since he is not authorised to speak to the media.

In value terms, March imports surged to $8.4 billion from $1.23 billion a year ago, he said.



This is insane. We are deficit financing the import of gold. It is high time Indians realize that Gold beyond a reasonable limit as investment only serves to lock up money from circulating in the economy.


perhaps the govt can buy gold in huge bulk, and have less "tax" if people buy from the govt owned stores.
this provides the govt an incentive to work with the gold producers on bulk pricing (like how we doing for oil)
the difference in monies can be pocketed by the govt.
people also happy, govt also happy - but many gold importers would lose their income.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Adrija » 06 Apr 2021 10:54

The Indian obsession w gold is millenia old and easily explainable: it offers a ready and very handy savings program for particularly the poor folks- easy to purchase and in small amounts, retains value (both in monetary and mineral terms) and hence easily encashable as and when required. Also, and very importantly, it is a hedge against the government itself, in terms of both monetary and physical tyranny, which our ancestors have suffered through and hence it remains embedded in our sub-conscious memory... today we have a dharmic government but that was not the case till recently, and- God forbid- may not always be the case......

Difficult to fight such ingrained habits and government is perhaps better off not trying

I do agree that it is inefficient in economic policy as it represents locked up capital, so perhaps a via media can be found...... I would propose that the government should allow banks to issue and accept gold deposits (including jewellery) as Tier II capital, redeemable after 7 years. Such certificates of deposit can also be pledged as collateral in the interim period

That would allow banks to increase their capital adequacy ratio, relieving pressure on the government for bank capitalization, and as it would be Tier II equity, it would allow for 10X lending.........takes care of the money multiplier, and hence addresses the "locked up" capital

I am sure take up would be good... not only would it allow for gold being redeemable in the same format as it is (e.g. jewellery), it would also offer physical safekeeping and security in the deposit period

JMT and 2 paise onree...

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby chetak » 06 Apr 2021 13:07

OT but interesting


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 06 Apr 2021 20:58

Adrija wrote:The Indian obsession w gold is millenia old and easily explainable: it offers a ready and very handy savings program for particularly the poor folks- easy to purchase and in small amounts, retains value (both in monetary and mineral terms) and hence easily encashable as and when required. Also, and very importantly, it is a hedge against the government itself, in terms of both monetary and physical tyranny, which our ancestors have suffered through and hence it remains embedded in our sub-conscious memory... today we have a dharmic government but that was not the case till recently, and- God forbid- may not always be the case......

Difficult to fight such ingrained habits and government is perhaps better off not trying

I do agree that it is inefficient in economic policy as it represents locked up capital, so perhaps a via media can be found...... I would propose that the government should allow banks to issue and accept gold deposits (including jewellery) as Tier II capital, redeemable after 7 years. Such certificates of deposit can also be pledged as collateral in the interim period

That would allow banks to increase their capital adequacy ratio, relieving pressure on the government for bank capitalization, and as it would be Tier II equity, it would allow for 10X lending.........takes care of the money multiplier, and hence addresses the "locked up" capital

I am sure take up would be good... not only would it allow for gold being redeemable in the same format as it is (e.g. jewellery), it would also offer physical safekeeping and security in the deposit period

JMT and 2 paise onree...


Gold monetization schemes have been proposed before they are not attractive enough for multiple reasons. People in India hold gold for monetary, social and emotional reasons. Gold is inheritance, gold is social customary but gold is also a solid time tested store of value which is extremely important in a nation such as ours with chronic high inflation. Gold monetization won't work because even if someone is willing to part with their gold in exchange for a interest rate which matches fixed deposits, it will still be losing value because our real inflation rate is many a fold higher especially when you look at longer investment cycles. The other problem with such a scheme is the sentimental value of jewelry . You don't want banks to melt jewelry which has been in a family for over a century, banks will also have significant operational overhead to melt the jewelry, return the gems/stones, inventory, and maintain local storage and so on.

Bottom line there isn't much government can do about India's obsession with gold, and despite the strain it puts on the rupee and CAD, i can fully understand the sentiment of gold buyers. If you further rise the duties, then more it will encourage smugglers to smuggle in gold in large quantities. And if the govt reduces the duties, then people will buy more gold than ever before. Damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 06 Apr 2021 21:58

Mort Walker wrote:
Suraj wrote:This is a complex topic with multiple parts. Historically, PPF/EPF were the main savings mechanisms in a simple economy where individuals did not have much recourse to advanced savings and investment tools. The rates were set and then the government worried about how to ensure it met those rates. Of course this showed up in the form of chronic high inflation, high cost of capital and crowding out effects.

<snip>

The US did a similar move from pension plans to 401Ks starting in the mid 1980s, and it was not an easy process either. The Chinese also did something similar starting in the late 90s, not long before us. The sanest approach is to let those who contributed on the basis of a defined benefit plan to accrue the same. Those who started midway though the switch from defined benefit to defined contribution systems can gain from both on a prorata basis. The youngest lot will work within a defined contribution system. This means the change will not be overnight - it might take a generation to fully transition.


For the US it has lead to the gutting of the lower middle class for over 30 years now. Passbook savings and corporate pension plans, relatively small, were evenly distributed, but something you could count on. Through the early 1990s a solid 5% could be had in passbook savings and even a pension from companies who practiced corporate responsibility as company executives had seen hard times from the 1940s onward. Today the US has a vast discrepancy in 401K participation. The upper middle class, AGI > $200K/yr has benefited the most, but those who earn between $50K-$100K/yr have a much lower contribution rate and are far more dependent on Social Security. The GINI coefficient of income inequality is higher in the US than it is in India.

This is something we don't want to see happen in the Indian middle class. FDs are the vehicle for primary savings by India's middle class and elderly. Now the US is talking about the USPS starting savings and banking for the poor and lower middle class, and is contemplating ways for people to save.

There's more to the US story than just move to defined contribution plans from defined benefit passbook savings schemes. Real wages have remained stagnant since the 1980s. That is the real reason for the American middle class hollowing out.

The US has made a deliberate choice to favour the shareholder first, customer second and employee last. It used to be the other way around, e.g. when Henry Ford paid a good living wage to turn employees into customers.

It's possible to have a defined contribution plan that works, but it involves corporate law that doesn't favour the shareholder at the expense of all others. Indian labour law is generally much more stringent than the US in this regard.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 07 Apr 2021 02:09

If you want to know what has happened to the american middle class.....

1. Transfer of jobs to china, thanks to the clingtons.

2. Take a look at the american bond markets; 10 year and 30 year bond yields.
Over the last 30 years! Which Clington destroyed (of course it started before him);

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... t-jd0q9r1w

In the 1990s, the Democratic political adviser James Carville said: “I used to think that if there was reincarnation, I wanted to come back as the president or the pope or as a .400 baseball hitter. But now I would like to come back as the bond market. You can intimidate everybody.”

============================================================

The best that an ordinary worker can hope for is to earn a decent wage in a low inflation environment,
save some money and earn interest in a deposit account.
Buy a property that has not been turned into a speculative bubble.

Americans were robbed of all the above, then punished by being sucked into boom bust
speculative cycles of stocks/housing.

If Indians want to know... what not to do, it is all there in america.

I believe Greenspan has said that the point of all the boom bust was to keep the average
american in a precariat position so they could never afford to leave the poorly paying work
offered by greedy american corpses.
Simultaneously get into debt to service the greedy bankster......
All these are special buddies/donors of the clingtons and their types.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Mort Walker » 07 Apr 2021 03:34

If any country wants to borrow its way to prosperity, then treasury note yields have to be kept low for debt servicing. That is something India should not do.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby yensoy » 07 Apr 2021 11:22

American bonds started their declining yields when they discovered that China was more than willing to park its massive trade surplus in low to very low yielding US treasuries/bonds, both to safeguard their surplus and to keep the renminbi from rising. When you are borrowing, why pay more than you have to? Although it would make a lot of sense for USA to have small savings schemes providing a higher than market rate of return (subject to restrictions on who can have these accounts and how much) to encourage people to save. Like we do in India.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Avtar Singh » 08 Apr 2021 01:47

Not the thread to discuss usa bond yields.

My main point is that a debt mongering economy with ever decreasing interest rates to boost consumption is not the way ahead for India. Savings = capital, not debt
.
I dont think Indians will go that way, they/we (if I may include myself) are not like americans
and we do no have american attitudes to money.
Hence the love for gold and hatred of inflation.

I dont know how to add images, but you can see the charts online

Yields starting going down soon after volcker left.... 1987
The point was to create an endless consumption based economy based on debt mongering.
Profits for the bankster/finance system.

China came into the picture in the 1990s to continue this type of economy.
As its reserves grew it was going to park that money in us treasuries.
Keeping yields low had a number of benefits at this point... less interest paid to china and
continuing the debt based consumption/consumer economy which helped keep
chinese factories humming... win win for everyone.
Less interest paid by the government on its ever ballooning deficits. win win win

Except for the hapless ordinary american...
whose jobs and wages were destroyed = no savings can be made.
Now being trapped in low wage/never ending debt based consumer economy.
Whilst at the same time banksters create bubbles in such simple needs as housing.

I am an amateur who follows these things, I am good with money and have followed markets for decades.
Not a bankster or finance person.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 08 Apr 2021 04:18

India cannot borrow and print to infinity even if it wants to. No other country can get away with what the US does . US can print endless $$ because of their global reserve currency status, there is always a demand for the greenbacks, so a 3 trillion here and a 2 trillion there simply does not matter. While all this new money may not *yet* be causing an alarming rise in inflation, it certainly creates asset bubbles and inflation around the world.

If we there's a one person who can be called as the "father" of this new monetary policy of creating billions and trillions out of thin air, then it is Alan Greenspan. His actions and later that of his successors in the federal reserve is the reason for ever increasing size of bubbles, recessions, reinflated bubbles, massive speculation and inflation especially in middle and lower income nations. Barring few years of correction (1987-88,2000-02, 2008-10 ), we've now had a 4 decades long rally in bonds, stocks, real estate, collectibles etc, it has been great for those who own assets but not so great for the poor and the middle class . The middle class in the west who have also seen their wages stagnant , job security disappear and pensions replaced by 401k have also been forced to either enter riskier investments or perish through diminishing value of their savings. How long will this rally last no one can tell but US is riding a tiger and it cannot get off it even if it wants to. The artificially low interest rates and unlimited QE is here to stay for many more years.

That said its not like India does not have economic problems of our own. Couple of years back someone explained the plight of savers in India this way - in the mid 90s you could buy a high quality kanchipuram silk saree for 10 gms of gold or around Rs 3500, you can still buy a high quality kanchipuram saree today for 10 gms of gold but if paying in rupees you'll need Rs 45000. Its not just high end sarees but everything which has gone up 10 to 12 times in the 2+ decades pushing more and more middle class, especially aging middle class families into borderline poverty.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Yagnasri » 08 Apr 2021 16:50

Ambar wrote: Couple of years back someone explained the plight of savers in India this way - in the mid 90s you could buy a high quality kanchipuram silk saree for 10 gms of gold or around Rs 3500, you can still buy a high quality kanchipuram saree today for 10 gms of gold but if paying in rupees you'll need Rs 45000. Its not just high end sarees but everything which has gone up 10 to 12 times in the 2+ decades pushing more and more middle class, especially aging middle class families into borderline poverty.


One more thing. When my father joined his job his salary is equal to 16 gm gold, When he retired his salary is equal to 8 grams of gold. Just think about it.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 08 Apr 2021 18:58

I think its true in all of our cases. Salary for a group B govt job in the early 2000s was around Rs 8000 which could buy 20 gms of gold every month, the same Rs 8000 today will buy < 2 gms of gold. You can replace gold with housing, land, healthcare, education or even food and you'll notice the same trend. I think we lose perspective of currency devaluation and inflation when we compare year over year ignoring the long term trend.

Back to regular programing - IMF estimates India's FY 22 GDP growth forecast at a impressive 12.5 %

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 002_1.html

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 08 Apr 2021 20:30

Ambar wrote:I think its true in all of our cases. Salary for a group B govt job in the early 2000s was around Rs 8000 which could buy 20 gms of gold every month, the same Rs 8000 today will buy < 2 gms of gold. You can replace gold with housing, land, healthcare, education or even food and you'll notice the same trend. I think we lose perspective of currency devaluation and inflation when we compare year over year ignoring the long term trend.

Back to regular programing - IMF estimates India's FY 22 GDP growth forecast at a impressive 12.5 %

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 002_1.html


Will second wave might impact this?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Primus » 08 Apr 2021 20:43

Ambar wrote:I think its true in all of our cases. Salary for a group B govt job in the early 2000s was around Rs 8000 which could buy 20 gms of gold every month, the same Rs 8000 today will buy < 2 gms of gold. You can replace gold with housing, land, healthcare, education or even food and you'll notice the same trend. I think we lose perspective of currency devaluation and inflation when we compare year over year ignoring the long term trend.

Back to regular programing - IMF estimates India's FY 22 GDP growth forecast at a impressive 12.5 %

https://www.business-standard.com/artic ... 002_1.html


Not sure I agree with you on everything. When I was an intern in 1979, I received Rs. 425 per month, the same job today pays over 45K per month. I could not afford a motorbike or scooter. The current interns all have personal transport. My cousins in India routinely travel abroad and have multiple apartments, cars, live a very luxurious lifestyle. These are all people in government jobs and I know personally that there is no scope of 'under the table' income for them. In comparison, when I was working for the Municipal Corporation of Delhi, I could not even dream of travel abroad. SHQ and I used to eat at a five star once a year on our anniversary.

Every time I go to India I see an uplift in the overall standard of living. Granted, there is also abject poverty, but it was there even in the 60s and 70s, in fact, was much worse. I see India gradually rising up, becoming more like the West, with huge assets in the hands of the wealthy, income divide increasing and yet the common 'lower class' person also enjoying a better life.

India's per capita income (PPP) has grown from $1800 to $7200 since the 70s, major health indicators like maternal and infant mortality rate, life expectancy have all improved dramatically. Yet, childhood malnutrition remains a big problem from what I've read. So while the overall economy has done well, there is perhaps significant maldistribution and penetration of the benefits into remote areas. I don't know the causes for this. I am sure Modi's programs of sanitation and clean water to all will make a big difference.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 08 Apr 2021 20:44

Yagnasri wrote:
One more thing. When my father joined his job his salary is equal to 16 gm gold, When he retired his salary is equal to 8 grams of gold. Just think about it.


Many of these arguments assume that gold prices are perfectly correlated with inflation. Why else would we want to compare our salaries with the amount of gold it can buy? It is assumed that gold prices go up as inflation goes up and vice-versa. This is actually not true if you look at the data. Gold is like any other commodity and is affected by demand and supply pressures.

If the Gold prices follow inflation, then inflation - adjusted gold prices should be a flat line. BUT that is not true. Here are inflation adjusted gold prices over the last 100 years.

Image

source

Gold was an inflation hedge when gold was used as currency backing. Those days are long gone. Even in those days, gold prices did not track inflation very well. Why? Again, people's preferences and consumption baskets change over time and therefore there is no perfect hedge against inflation.
Last edited by Uttam on 08 Apr 2021 21:01, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 08 Apr 2021 21:01

Adani’s Mundra Port In Gujarat Overtakes Mumbai’s JNPT, Emerges As India’s Biggest Container Port

Mundra Port, the flagship port of Adani Ports and Special Economic Zone Ltd (APSEZ), has overtook state-run Jawaharlal Nehru Port Trust (JNPT) in container handling with 5.65 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs) in FY21, posting a growth of 18 per cent over the previous year.

On the other hand, JNPT handled 4.67 million TEUs in FY21 with a decline of 7.04 per cent over FY20.



A connection of Western DFC to Mundra will open up tremendous opportunities for land-locked states in the North.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 08 Apr 2021 21:12

https://techcrunch.com/2021/04/07/india ... c=ECTW2020
Indian edtech giant Byju’s to expand to international markets

Byju’s plans to expand to international markets in the second half of next month as the Indian edtech giant, valued at over $13 billion, looks to accelerate its growth, TechCrunch has learned and confirmed.

The Bangalore-based startup, which acquired 33-year-old tutor Aakash for nearly $1 billion earlier this week, plans to launch in the U.S., UK, Brazil, Indonesia and Mexico next month and explore other geographies later this year, it told employees in an email.

The startup’s international business, to be called Byju’s Future School, is being led by Karan Bajaj, the founder of coding platform WhiteHat Jr, which Byju’s acquired for $300 million last year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 08 Apr 2021 21:31

https://swarajyamag.com/ideas/the-focus ... riti-irani
The Focus Is Now On Technical Textiles And Meeting The Industry’s Machine And Technology Needs: Minister Smriti Irani

The minister began by stating that the prospects for the textile industry are bright and textile manufacturing opportunities in the country are aplenty. She highlighted that the Indian textile industry is now looking beyond the simple cloth and expanding to new sectors like technical textiles.

Technical Textiles

Irani said it is the first time in the history of the country that a concerted effort has been made by the government and the industry in the field of technical textiles.

The minister underlined that until recently, no manufacturing unit in India had manufactured end-to-end personal protective equipment or PPE suit. When Covid-19 hit and borders were closed, one thing that hindered the industry was the lack of machinery, and the government stepped in to help, the minister added.



“We had the Textile Ministry detailing the machine tool need of the textile industry, we had the External Affairs Ministry reach out to suppliers across the globe and then the Civil Aviation Ministry stepped up to ensure that the government flew down these machines to help meet the needs of the industry,” she said.

Irani said the government also ensured that there were adequate testing facilities.

“If you remember, in March we had just one lab, which was SITRA (or South India Textile Research Association) in Coimbatore. We then reached out to the Ministry of Defence and the DRDO and helped convert over eight additional labs in the country so that any and every organisation that could reorient could do so in every part of the country and there would be an easily accessible lab to test samples,” she added.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 08 Apr 2021 21:31

Gold is used as a yardstick because of its 6000 yr+ history as a medium of exchange and store of value. Countless kingdoms, tribes, nation-states have used gold as currency and it will continue to be with us for the next 6000 yrs, i don't think any of us can confidently say that about the rupee, the US dollar and definitely not the bitcoin. The graph above is US CPI vs USD , you will see different corelation when you draw gold prices against high depreciating currency like INR and India's inflation. Also, using 1979-80 as a base for gold prices isnt accurate because of the abnormal spike in metal prices that year due to the geopolitical situation.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 08 Apr 2021 22:59

Arvind Gupta @buzzindelhi
This is amazing. When India banned Chinese apps and put restrictions on capital flows from neighboring countries, everyone doubted the ability to attract capital. Indian entrepreneurs are proving them wrong.

ETtech @ETtech · Apr 5
Another of our scoops from February has been confirmed today... Police cars revolving lightPolice cars revolving light Swiggy raises $800 million in funding at $5 billion valuation
https://m.economictimes.com/tech/fundin ... 914999.cms


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Uttam » 08 Apr 2021 23:07

@Amber. I hope you can share some hard data to back your arguments. I am not doubting that gold was not used as currency for a long period of human history. I am just not convinced it is an inflation hedge or that its prices capture the true inflation. I encourage you to find relevant data and share it with the group.

Regarding the base price of 79-80 for gold: It just calibrates all other prices assuming 100 for the base year. Changing the base year does not affect relative movement in prices. The shape of your curve will be similar and have the same volatility if you choose some other base year. The entire curve will move up or down for a different base year.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Ambar » 09 Apr 2021 02:22

Uttam, i have responded in the 'Perspectives on the global economic changes' thread to limit the unrelated topic discussion here.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 10 Apr 2021 01:11

Direct tax collections in FY21 exceed estimates by 5%
The provisional figures of direct tax collections for the financial year 2020-21 showed that net collections are at Rs 9.45 lakh crore.

The net collection is around 5 per cent higher than the revised estimates for the 2020-21.

The net direct tax collections include corporation tax (CIT) at Rs 4.57 lakh crore and personal income tax (PIT), including security transaction tax (STT) at Rs 4.88 lakh crore.

"The net direct tax collections represent 104.46% of the Revised Estimates of Rs 9.05 lakh crore of direct taxes for the FY 2020-21," said a Finance Ministry statement.

The gross collection of direct taxes, before adjusting for refunds, for the FY21 stands at Rs 12.06 lakh crore, including corporation tax of Rs 6.31 lakh crore and personal income tax (including STT) of Rs 5.75 lakh crore.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Vips » 11 Apr 2021 23:48

4 days, 6 unicorns, $1.55 billion — A week like none other for Indian startups.

Half a dozen Indian startups raised $1.55 billion (Rs 11,580 crore) to enter the unicorn club between April 5 and April 9, in what has been a record-setting week of funding in the domestic new age Internet ecosystem.

Just 12 unicorns — privately held startups valued at $1 billion or more — were born in all of 2020, but that itself was the highest ever for a year in India. 2021 has already seen the birth of 10 startup unicorns in India.

The six deals announced last week spanned sectors, including healthcare ( Pharmeasy), social commerce ( Meesho), iatockntech ( Groww and Cred), and social and content platforms ( Gupshup and ShareChat parent Mohalla Tech).

India is on track to have more than 50 startup unicorns in 2021, according to a Nasscom-Zinnov report.

New York-based Tiger Global emerged as the most aggressive investor, reminiscent of the then former partner Lee Fiel’s 2015 run, with investments in four of the six new unicorns. It led the $502 million round in ShareChat and the $83 million round in Groww. The fund was the sole investor in the $100 million round of Gupshup, which raised money after 10 years.

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"Tiger is the new SoftBank," said Anand Lunia, founding partner at India Quotient, an early-stage investor whose portfolio includes Lendingkart, Sugar Cosmetics and ShareChat.

SoftBank’s Vision Fund 2 invested $300 million in social platform Meesho, which faced its share of rejection in its initial years of fundraising because of its model of e-commerce focussed on small businesses in India, Meesho founder Vidit Aatrey said.

“To the team, it's a sign of validation and a sign of a larger responsibility being put on our shoulders, and a belief that we can pull o our ambitious vision of bringing 100 million small businesses online. It is all exciting and inspiring for everyone and we are enjoying that," said Aatrey, who is also the chief executive officer of the company.

The week's deal activity and unicorn bonanza was a culmination of hard work and process over several months, said Vinod Murali, managing partner at Alteria Capital Advisors.

“We should continue to see similar momentum for the next few quarters, but hope founders are able to use the abundant supply of capital well and build fundamentally strong businesses,” Murali said.

Overall, Indian startups raised $2.6 billion across 21 deals from April 3-9, according to data provided by industry tracker Venture Intelligence.

"In a world of zero-cost money, investors have reset the models for valuing the terminal value of businesses. SaaS (software-as-a-service) businesses with very sticky and growing revenues and consumer companies with the winnertake-all characteristics, both seem to be much more valuable now," Lunia said. "Indian startups have performed
admirably in the pandemic. In a lot of spaces, winners are emerging even more clearly now. It is these companies that are becoming unicorns faster."

Another New York-based fund, Falcon Edge, emerged as a key investor this week. Itled the $800 million round, along with Amansa Capital, in food delivery startup Swiggy at a valuation of $5 billion, increasing the startup’s war chest 4/11/2021 unicorns in india: 4 days, 6 unicorns, $1.55 billion —
against the IPO-bound rival Zomato. Falcon Edge also led the $215 million round in ntech startup Cred at a valuation of $2.2 billion.

Other large deals closed by startups included the $65 million round led by General Catalyst (early backers of Snap, Airbnb, and Stripe) in car reseller platform Spinny and OFB Tech’s business-to-business platform OfBusiness’ Series D2 round of $110 million, led by Falcon Edge at a valuation of $800 million.

India has seen record-breaking deal activity across stages since January. The average deal size has gone up substantially, with funding rounds closing in record time and startups raising more capital than planned.

Year to date, Series A rounds have notched up an average $6.29 million in 63 deals, the highest in the last five years, according to data tracked till April 8 by Tracxn.

According to a joint report by IT industry lobby group Nasscom and technology consultancy Zinnov, India is on track to have more than 50 startup unicorns in 2021.

On his future plans, Ankush Sachdeva, chief executive officer of ShareChat and Moj, wrote in a blog post: "We are at a significant inflection point in our company’s journey — as the Internet penetration deepens in India, we are well positioned to expand our ecosystem of products to over 1 billion monthly active users cumulatively."

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby vijayk » 12 Apr 2021 02:03


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Aditya_V » 13 Apr 2021 15:49

Guys any idea why the Indian Rupee has lost 5% against the USD in the last week and is about 75-76 to the USD. If its Covid, may be FII pulled some money, I dont see Indian imports surging at this point of time. Our BOP should not be soo bad and RBI can intervene as its Forex reserves are at a all time high.

As it is fuel and gas prices have surged why would the GOI not ask RBI to intervene and stabilize the Rupee? what is driving the Rupee depriciation at this point of time?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby a_bharat » 13 Apr 2021 19:38

I believe Rupee fell due to RBI maintaining accommodative stance on the interest rates. The fear being artificially low rates inconsistent with inflation expectations will cause capital flight from Indian markets. Remember the taper tantrum of 2013, when US announced that they will taper off QE (which, BTW they didn't do) and Rupee had a much bigger fall?

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 14 Apr 2021 05:01

Tractors end FY21 with historic production, growth in sales, exports
With strong domestic demand on the back of robust rural economy and recovery in exports from the second quarter of FY21, industry achieved its highest-ever production at 9.65 lakh units in FY21 against 7.78 lakh units in FY20, according to the data provided by Tractor & Mechanisation Association (TMA).

Meanwhile, exports of tractors also saw a gradual increase in the post-lockdown phase and total tractor exports stood at 88,621 units in FY21 compared with 76,054 units, recording a growth of 16.5 per cent.

The outlook for the industry continues to be positive given the all-time high estimates of rabi production and strong rural cash flows.

Indirect tax revenue up 12% in FY21, exceeds revised estimate
Indirect tax collection during FY21 exceeded not just the revised estimate, but the actual collection in FY20 as well, the Finance Ministry said on Tuesday.

“Provisional net indirect tax collections (GST and non-GST) for FY21 show growth of more than 12 per cent compared to actual revenue receipts in FY20. Net indirect tax collections represent 108.2 per cent of the revised estimates of ₹9.89-lakh crore of indirect taxes for FY21,” a statement issued by the Ministry said.

The provisional figures showed that net revenue collections are at ₹10.71-lakh crore compared to 9.54-lakh crore for FY20. As regards customs, net tax collections stood at ₹1.32-lakh crore during the period under consideration against ₹1.09-lakh crore during FY20, a growth of around 21 per cent.

Net tax collections on account of central excise and service tax (arrears) rose to ₹3.91-lakh crore from ₹2.45 lakh crore, thereby registering a growth of more than 59 per cent. Though net tax collections on account of Centre’s GST slipped to ₹5.48-lakh from FY20’s actual collection of ₹5.99-lakh crore, it is still higher than the revised estimate of ₹5.15-lakh crore.

The GST collections were severely affected in the first half of the financial year on account of Covid. However, in the second half, the collections registered good growth and exceeded ₹1-lakh crore in each of the last six months. March saw an all-time high of GST collection at ₹1.24-lakh crore after good figures in January and February. Several measures taken by the Centre helped improve GST compliance, the statement said.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2021 00:55

India's Foreign Trade: March 2021
Image

Full Year:
Merchandise exports: $291 billion (-7.3%)
Merchandise imports: $389 billion (-18%)
Services exports: $203 billion (-6%)
Services imports: $117 billion (-11%)

Overall the numbers are pretty strong for the FY gone by.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby nandakumar » 16 Apr 2021 07:50

Throw in inward remittances into the mix, we have had a decent current account surplus of $35 billion in the first nine months of fiscal 2020-21.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 16 Apr 2021 10:37

A statistical factor that bears mentioning is the timing and impact on successive fiscal years. Had the lockdown occurred lets say starting February - this is entirely a temporal argument without dealing with medical and other factors - then the degrowth would have been spread across 2019-20 and 2020-21 . Thus the growth in 19-20 would have been slightly muted and the growth over that in 2020-21 would look 'better' . However, in our case, degrowth almost entirely hit the 2020-21 figures, so it 'looks bad', even though in absolute terms the loss in economic output spread across multiple FYs may have been no different from how it instead was an almost entirely 2020-21 statistical hit.

On the other hand, that is also why the 2021-22 estimates are so high, a statistical result of the drop being concentrated almost entirely in 2020-21.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby VinodTK » 19 Apr 2021 21:18

India’s Razorpay Triples Valuation to $3 Billion With Funding
(Bloomberg) -- Razorpay, an Indian startup that facilitates digital payments, is raising $160 million from Sequoia India, Singapore’s sovereign fund GIC Pte and others, tripling its valuation to $3 billion in six months.The Bangalore-headquartered company, which helps businesses to automate their payment systems, will use the funds to expand into banking and lending, make acquisitions and add services in Southeast Asia, the company said in an announcement on Monday. Razorpay Software Pvt, as the company is formally known, has raised a total of $366.5 million so far.

India is in the middle of an unprecedented startup boom, as the coronavirus pandemic drives more activity online and investors see untapped opportunity for profit in the fledgling digital ecosystem. Earlier this month, six startups turned unicorns within the span of days, almost as many as all of 2020. Razorpay is the latest beneficiary, seeing its valuation surge after reaching the $1 billion mark in October.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby kit » 21 Apr 2021 02:45

https://www.timesnownews.com/business-economy/economy/article/indian-rupee-falls-to-10-month-low-why-the-currency-is-declining-in-value-and-what-this-means/745538

A weakened rupee will, of course, make exports cheaper and therefore more competitive in global markets, but will, simultaneously, also make the country's imports more expensive

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Postby Suraj » 29 Apr 2021 03:43

Continuing my efforts to keep with the Jal Jeevan Mission every month:
26 Apr 2021
Image

Crossed 38% coverage now. 40 million new homes with water.

Here is the live dashboard. Click on the toggle button to see change since inception of the program. You can see state level performance by hovering over or clicking on state.

Prior statuses:
18 Mar 2021
21 Feb 2021
15 Jan 2021
18 Dec 2020
15 Nov 2020
15 Oct 2020
20 Sep 2020
15 Aug 2020[/quote]


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