Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

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Cyrano
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

The report clearly says "We focus on ten countries that together account for about 60 percent of global GDP: Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States".

France seems more leveraged than I thought and shows up uniquely in many comparisons made in this report. Requires some more thorough reading to make sense of whats being said in the report.

It would have been interesting to see how India would have tracked on some of these parameters, but perhaps they had data collection / normalisation issues or India would be such a strong outlier that their beautiful graphs will all get screwed up ;)
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:The report clearly says "We focus on ten countries that together account for about 60 percent of global GDP: Australia, Canada, China, France, Germany, Japan, Mexico, Sweden, the United Kingdom, and the United States".

It would have been interesting to see how India would have tracked on some of these parameters, but perhaps they had data collection / normalisation issues or India would be such a strong outlier that their beautiful graphs will all get screwed up ;)
Indeed by any measure Indian economy is bigger than 7 of the countries in question! ..and has more billionaires!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arvin »

vijayk wrote:
Prasanna Viswanathan. @prasannavishy
Great chart. State-wise Investment outlook for the Rs.1.97 Lakh Crores Production-Linked Incentive (PLI) Schemes for 13 key sectors.
Cant help commenting about Kerala's absence in the infographic.
Even Goa, West Bengal and Bihar are featured there.
One can understand J&K and North - east states not present as they are at battling insurgencies and instability due to geographical locations.
But Kerala's absence is inexcusable as it enjoys good rail, air connectivity and good manpower supply.
Says a lot about the priorities of the elected govt there.
What are they doing with KELTRON that was one of the early movers in electronics and was setup in 1973.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

It reflects where private investments are going in these technology & capital intensive areas. Kerala has a relatively small pool of locally available highly skilled resources - many have moved to other states or abroad, getting them back to Kerala (even to TVM for ex) is not easy, believe me I've tried a few years ago.

Add on top the Govt policies, unions, strikes and disturbances caused by heavy monsoons, epidemics/pandemics, political unrest all combined make Kerala a comparatively less attractive destination for heavy investments in these sectors.

The one thing really going for Kerala is expat remittances from abroad or rest of India. I suspect those inflows even largely overshadow (pre covid) tourism revenues, and require no effort from local Govt so the incentive/motivation to attract big investments is not there. Kerala appeared prosperous across strata and self sufficient for most basic needs to me.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by yensoy »

^^^^ Specifically, Kerala is a state with excellent social services, so it is a very viable destination for retirees to return and settle down. So much of the money earned abroad comes back to the state - either as lumpsum or as return on investments, even if not as remittance during the period of employment.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by arvin »

This is specific to PLI scheme I am highlighting.
Even with above factors like floods, labour unrest the state should not be in such a contrasting situation with respect to its neighbours.
There are 13 different categories for PLI scheme and TN, KA, AP,
TG have targeted multiple categories.
Auto or steel industries may not invest in Kerala, but it is sheer arrogance on the part of state govt not to take advantage of the scheme in electronics or medical devices category.
Inspite of remmittances, the state's finances are not good at all.

PLI categories
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

https://swarajyamag.com/business/india- ... ustainable

India Is Set To Reach $400 Billion In Merchandise Exports, But Is It Sustainable?

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ndia's Merchandise Export In $ Billion (2017-2021)
Year Merchandise Exports (In USD Billion)
2017 299.2
2018 324.7
2019 324.3
2020 275.44
2021 (Projected) 400
In addition, FTAs allow India to narrowly focus on selling and buying a few set of goods with its trading partners, where both countries benefit. In contrast, a WTO Goods Schedule can be quite broad, covering a large number of goods. A customised FTA would allow India to have greater control over its international exports.
Since the pandemic began, companies across the world have been looking to reduce their excessive dependence on Chinese manufacturing. Hence, as a part of the diversification strategy, these companies have begun sourcing goods from other low-cost manufacturing nations like India. In addition, the shift could attract exported-oriented foreign direct investment in India as companies look for manufacturing bases with low costs.
India’s export growth could potentially be propelled by a few specific sectors such as textiles, agricultural products, consumer electronics, chemicals, pharmaceuticals, and engineering goods. The consumer electronics space appears to be poised for growth as both domestic and export demand grow, boosted by the PLI benefits provided by the government.
Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by ArjunPandit »

vijayk wrote:
kit wrote:https://www.mckinsey.com/industries/fin ... we-using-o

Why is india not anywhere in this list
Link was not working

https://www.mckinsey.com/~/media/mckins ... _final.pdf

ZERO data on India
pretty interesting, esp when Mck has/had a lot desis, including Rajat Gupta. In hindsight, it is better. Most of these guys would not have much positive to write positive publicly and its always contentious for them to lose business and bad press. Also, its best to fly under radar right now with huge structural changes happening in economy.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

Image
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Varuna »

19 Nov 2021
Image

44.30% now. Assam and Ladakh are in light blue now.
JJM dashboard

UP seems to be stagnant, so I looked up the UP JJM dashboard. There seems to be a lot of infrastructure that is being built up. I suspect that the UP numbers will start increasing drastically only next year.
JJM UP dashboard

Prior statuses:
30 Oct 2021
21 Jul 2021
30 Jun 2021
26 Apr 2021
18 Mar 2021
21 Feb 2021
15 Jan 2021
18 Dec 2020
15 Nov 2020
15 Oct 2020
20 Sep 2020
15 Aug 2020
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

Paytm crashes after IPO, trading at 27% discount.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Thanks for resuming the JJM dashboard, Varuna!
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vsunder »

^^^ Districts 1-4, 8, 10-18 in the JJM list for UP are some of the most backward in the State. Some of them like Gonda town figure at the bottom of Swach Abhiyan. So there is a concerted focus on them with a lot more schemes under JJM. 25, 37, 48 are prestige projects where lot more work has been done. Amethi, Rae Bareli and Sultanpur that is. Both Rae Bareli and Amethi has seen tearing down existing narrow platforms and decrepit station buildings and constructing new edifices. Tracks through all three Sultanpur, Amethi and Rae Bareli have been doubled towards Lucknow and Varanasi and electrification is complete. In addition the new Purvanchal expressway passes through Sultanpur and Amethi.

Western UP is seeing less schemes in that list possibly due to its proximity to Delhi, there may be more access to drinking water. Central UP like Kanpur has also fewer schemes. It appears the ground is being prepared to run Sonia Gandhi out of Rae Bareli in 2024. In any case it will be hard for her.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Thanks vsunder. What explains the delta between UP and Bihar right next to it ?
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vsunder »

I do not know but I can guess. Before that what is surprising to me is that districts of Bihar adjoining Purvanachal UP are blue. Take Northern Bihar which is very backward and isolated. Now this is being remedied with multiple bridges across the Ganga and rail and road connectivity. I surmise that there are many water bodies here in Northern Bihar. The Kosi river is a wild untamed river that floods easily and brings death and destruction in this region. It has a Himalayan source and causes destruction in Nepal. It is called Doodh Kosi because in spate it froths like Doodh--milk and is very wide. My guess is that with many water bodies, aquifers are replenished and people have access to well water and hand pumps, not necessarily tap water. This access to well water is better than what people have in UP. What might be of interest is if there is still water borne disease and conditions caused by natural toxic elements in these parts even though it is blue. Will piped water help in lowering the incidence of water borne disease---for sure, but how is piped water treated, are toxins like Arsenic in the groundwater removed efficiently? The Arsenic problem in groundwater is particularly severe in West Bengal.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

Paytm Provided Returns To Chinese Investors At The Cost Of Indian Investors: BharatPe CEO

https://officechai.com/startups/paytm-p ... ratpe-ceo/
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... s-7637220/
India plans to release about 5 million barrels of crude oil from its emergency stockpile in tandem with the US, Japan and other major economies to cool prices,
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rajkumar »

Kaivalya wrote:https://indianexpress.com/article/busin ... s-7637220/
India plans to release about 5 million barrels of crude oil from its emergency stockpile in tandem with the US, Japan and other major economies to cool prices,
Not sure what this will achieve? 5m barrel is just 1 days consumption for India. Also not sure how much SRP holds in India.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Kaivalya »

rajkumar wrote:
Not sure what this will achieve? 5m barrel is just 1 days consumption for India. Also not sure how much SRP holds in India.
It is the synchronized international action that is more relevant to defend against the oil mafia. Also there were some news last year on an US arrangement that allowed storage facilities to be used by India. SPR in India was around 40mn barrels not including external facilities.

Added reference:

https://Indianexpress.com/article/busin ... s-6511048/
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Yagnasri »

I do not see any reason for all this drama by the US when about a year back they were almost self sufficient. What I see is a concerted effort from woke gangs to make oil very costly for ideological reasons. Nothing more.

The same they are trying hard on coal. It is only matter of time we face issues on coal also if we do not push back hard.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by kit »

https://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/W ... nvest.html

U.S. shale producers saw reinvestment rates hit an all-time low in the third quarter and saw record levels of free cash flow
A group of 21 public U.S. shale companies that are expected to produce 40% of 2021 output had a reinvestment rate of 46%
Despite seeing the strongest cash flow from operations since the second quarter of 2019, these shale producers’ capital expenditure was remarkably low

Another cartel ? looks like coordinating with the oil majors
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Shanmukh »

Looks like a good growth in the current year for India (both FY21-22, and calendar year 2022). Can some economic gurus say what the Indian nominal GDP will look like at the end of the current FY?

https://www.thehindu.com/business/Econo ... 643774.ece
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

chetak wrote:..
Chetak saar, our street smart PM asked for 1 Trillion USD as our price for committing to the cuts the big ones demand we do!

India Wants $1 Trillion Before It Raises Targets to Cut Emissions :D
India has named its price in high-stakes climate talks: if the rich countries want it to cut planet-warming emissions, they need to come up with $1 trillion of public cash by the end of the decade.

On Wednesday, Indian officials clarified their demands. They want $1 trillion in funds just for India by 2030 — ten times more than the unmet $100 billion a year for all poor countries sought under previous deals. Over a decade, that would mean advanced economies have to give India the same amount of funds they’ve promised for all poor countries.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:..
Chetak saar, our street smart PM asked for 1 Trillion USD as our price for committing to the cuts the big ones demand we do!

India Wants $1 Trillion Before It Raises Targets to Cut Emissions :D
India has named its price in high-stakes climate talks: if the rich countries want it to cut planet-warming emissions, they need to come up with $1 trillion of public cash by the end of the decade.

On Wednesday, Indian officials clarified their demands. They want $1 trillion in funds just for India by 2030 — ten times more than the unmet $100 billion a year for all poor countries sought under previous deals. Over a decade, that would mean advanced economies have to give India the same amount of funds they’ve promised for all poor countries.
Manish_P ji,

Modi has set the cat amongst the pigeons........

no wonder the BIF jokers are looking for a regime change. It's far cheaper
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by ritesh »

Good, we need to be unapologetic and in your face with our needs! These gori chamdi $uckers have ruined the ecosystem of the whole planet and now wants to sermonise upon us to save enviornment.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Cyrano »

India played it very well at COP26, NaMo was been well advised and well prepared on such issues. Not acting woke, not acting meek, calling a spade a spade, rallying small island nations, sticking to India's imperatives clearly and unapologetically, leading with initiatives like Solar Alliance... 10/10 so far !
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

Bart S wrote:... The real mechanism/interface is UPI, which in turn is a wrapper around IMPS which has been around for a long time.

IMPS lets bank account to bank account transactions take place...

The dozens of UPI apps (like Bhim or GPay) use the above (UPI over IMPS) mechanism with further ease of use features for the user, like in Gpay you can just select a phone contact and if they have GPay, immediately send money to them, you don't even need to know their virtual payment ID. Frankly, the rewards in GPay are hardly worthwhile nowadays, the reason that most people use it is that it exists on all/most phones and you don't even need to bother about scanning or keying in somebody's VPA.

PhonePe is desi (though owned by Walmart now) and so is PayTM (in a manner of speaking). In any case, this is less important, the main thing is that everything is based on UPI+IMPS and these apps are just a wrapper and as Suraj mentioned it is really important to ensure that they don't have access to mine Indian user transaction data for any purpose.
UPI via whatsapp has started well... i fully expect it to overtake Phonepe and even Gpay ... i Used it for the first time some weeks ago and now i am seeing a lot of my whatsapp contacts using it. I didn't see such fast acceptance of Gpay (even with their rewards marketing blitz) or PhonePe

WhatsApp gets approval to offer payments service to 40 million users in India
WhatsApp Pay, the messaging app’s payment feature, will soon be available to 40 million users in India. As per Reuters report, the messaging app has got approval from the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI) to expand its WhatsApp Pay payments service to 40 million users in India. If you don’t know already, WhatsApp Pay is a payment feature available within the app. It is based on the Unified Payments Interface (UPI) platform.

The report reveals that WhatsApp Pay is currently available to only 20 million users in India. Now that the messaging app has got the nod from NPCI, the user base will get doubled. WhatsApp on the other hand had requested the government to remove the cap on users of its payment service in India.

As per sources, WhatsApp isn’t too convinced with the expansion of the feature to 40 million users because the app has over 500 million users in India.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by chetak »

there seems to be no end to amazon's arrogant behavior in India.


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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

Q2 GDP data is out: ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) 2021-2022 (pdf)

Quarterly Data:
Real GDP growth: 8.4%
Nominal GDP growth: 17.5%
Quarterly GDP: t ₹55.54 lakh crore ($745 billion)
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF): 32% of GDP (31.6% in Q1)

Half year data:
Real GDP growth: 13.7%
Nominal GDP growth: 23.9%
Half year GDP: t ₹106.76 lakh crore ($1.43 trillion)
Gross fixed capital formation: 31.8% of GDP (28.2% in the year ago H1)

These are extremely strong numbers of course - the biggest dampener in my view is the high imports that kept GDP growth from topping 10%. For example, Had growth in imports been only 60-70% of the growth they saw this year, the GDP growth would have been 11%. I am going to write a detailed article about this.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by VinodTK »



Dec 23, 2020
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Aditya_V »

Suraj wrote:Q2 GDP data is out: ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT FOR THE SECOND QUARTER (JULY-SEPTEMBER) 2021-2022 (pdf)

Quarterly Data:
Real GDP growth: 8.4%
Nominal GDP growth: 17.5%
Quarterly GDP: t ₹55.54 lakh crore ($745 billion)
Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF): 32% of GDP (31.6% in Q1)

Half year data:
Real GDP growth: 13.7%
Nominal GDP growth: 23.9%
Half year GDP: t ₹106.76 lakh crore ($1.43 trillion)
Gross fixed capital formation: 31.8% of GDP (28.2% in the year ago H1)

These are extremely strong numbers of course - the biggest dampener in my view is the high imports that kept GDP growth from topping 10%. For example, Had growth in imports been only 60-70% of the growth they saw this year, the GDP growth would have been 11%. I am going to write a detailed article about this.
The biggest problem is obsession with Jewellery, for eg in Sep-21 we imported USD 23 Billion worth of gold. We need a 2 year break from Gold imports.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Suraj »

While gold imports are expensive, there's a fundamental value accretion here . I'd like to see gold imports drop yes, but there are specifically better options that can be import substituted through concerted policy action. I'll dive into that detail in article form.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by VinodTK »

GST collected in November, 2021 second highest since its implementation

Code: Select all

New Delhi: The gross Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue of Rs 1,31,526 crore collected in November is the second-highest since the implementation of GST, said the Ministry of Finance.

As per the release issued by the ministry, this includes Central Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 23,978 crore, State Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 31,127 crore and International Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 66,815 crore, Rs 32,165 crore collected on import of goods and Cess of Rs 9,606 crore (including Rs 653 crore collected on import of goods).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by VinodTK »

VinodTK wrote:GST collected in November, 2021 second highest since its implementation
New Delhi: The gross Goods and Service Tax (GST) revenue of Rs 1,31,526 crore collected in November is the second-highest since the implementation of GST, said the Ministry of Finance.

As per the release issued by the ministry, this includes Central Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 23,978 crore, State Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 31,127 crore and International Goods and Service Tax which is Rs 66,815 crore, Rs 32,165 crore collected on import of goods and Cess of Rs 9,606 crore (including Rs 653 crore collected on import of goods).
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by rsingh »

Manish_P wrote:
chetak wrote:..
Chetak saar, our street smart PM asked for 1 Trillion USD as our price for committing to the cuts the big ones demand we do!

India Wants $1 Trillion Before It Raises Targets to Cut Emissions :D
India has named its price in high-stakes climate talks: if the rich countries want it to cut planet-warming emissions, they need to come up with $1 trillion of public cash by the end of the decade.

On Wednesday, Indian officials clarified their demands. They want $1 trillion in funds just for India by 2030 — ten times more than the unmet $100 billion a year for all poor countries sought under previous deals. Over a decade, that would mean advanced economies have to give India the same amount of funds they’ve promised for all poor countries.
Pardon "street smart PM" was uncalled for. Please refrain from such stupid remarks.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

^ Street Smart is not an offensive term and it is certainly not stupid

Street smart - 'the experience and knowledge necessary to deal with the potential difficulties or dangers of life in an urban ('Big') environment'

Synonyms - https://thesaurus.yourdictionary.com/street-smart
Hardened, astute, cunning, experienced, on the ball, quick-witted, savvy, seasoned, shrewd, streetwise, worldly.

Added - Please let me know which of the above attributes do not apply to our respected PM..
Last edited by Manish_P on 02 Dec 2021 20:43, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by hanumadu »

Our GDP is currently about the same as pre pandemic levels but GST collection is at least 20k crores higher per month. That is a significant increase in compliance.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by Manish_P »

Gujarat displaces Maharashtra to become largest manufacturing hub in country
Gujarat has emerged as the biggest manufacturing hub in India with the state’s Gross Value Addition (GVA) in manufacturing growing at 15.9 per cent annually on average between FY’12 and FY’20. (Representational image)

Gujarat has pipped Maharashtra to emerge the largest manufacturing hub in the country, with the former’s Gross Value Addition (GVA) in manufacturing growing 15.9 per cent annually on average between FY12 and FY20 to touch Rs 5.11 lakh crore, according to the data released by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

Maharashtra’s annual growth rate during the period was 7.5 per cent per annum, taking the state’s total manufacturing GVA to Rs 4.34 lakh crore in FY20. It continues to lead as the nation’s biggest services hub.

Higher investment in Gujarat during the period likely played a key role in allowing the state to outpace the rest of the country in manufacturing growth. Gujarat witnessed the highest level of capital investment in terms of gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) — a measure of investments — between FY12 and FY19 at a total of Rs 5.85 lakh crore, ahead of Maharashtra which saw investment of Rs 4.07 lakh crore during the period, and Andhra Pradesh, which witnessed cumulative GFCF of Rs 1.49 lakh crore.

A report by KPMG said key reforms by Gujarat, including the introduction of a single window for business clearances, easing of labour norms as well as smoother administration of incentive schemes, contributed to boosting ease of doing business in the state and making it one of most attractive destinations for Foreign Direct Investment.
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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Nov 27 2017

Post by vijayk »

₹ 1,31,526 crore gross GST revenue collected in November

GST collection for November,2021 surpassed last month collection registering the second highest since implementation of GST

Revenues for the month of November 2021 , 25% higher than the GST revenues in the same month last year and 27% over 2019-20

Image

https://www.pib.gov.in/PressReleasePage ... ID=1776730
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