PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

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hanumadu
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by hanumadu »

Who are the investors in all these companies? Chinese or foreign investors? If it's foreign investors, how did they not know it's all a ponzi scheme? 300 billion debt for one company seems so ginormous. Who are the lenders? If there are a lot of foreign lenders, they deserve to lose their money. Man, the communist bosses must have made a killing at the expense of everybody.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Anoop »

https://youtu.be/lk6lkW4A7Ec

Talks about the unemployment scene in China, with a sector wise breakdown. The MSME sector, if it continues to be hit, will have long term implications for the Chinese export market as well as their overall economy.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

China’s real estate problems are spreading even to once-healthy developers
Shimao, one of China’s healthiest real estate developers, has reportedly defaulted — a sign of how more pain is ahead for the heavily indebted industry. “The reason that the market is a bit more worried about this case compared to the other developers that [fell] into trouble [is] because Shimao is considered ... a relatively healthy name,” Gary Ng, Asia-Pacific economist at Natixis, said in a phone interview Friday. He noted that Shimao met all three of Beijing’s main requirements for developers’ debt levels, and said the company’s struggles reflected broader pressure for business transformation in the current environment.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by nishant.gupta »

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/artic ... ab-intl-en

China Is Running Out of Water and That’s Scary for Asia
China possesses 20% of the world’s population but only 7% of its fresh water. Entire regions, especially in the north, suffer from water scarcity worse than that found in a parched Middle East.
Thousands of rivers have disappeared, while industrialization and pollution have spoiled much of the water that remains. By some estimates, 80% to 90% of China’s groundwater and half of its river water is too dirty to drink; more than half of its groundwater and one-quarter of its river water cannot even be used for industry or farming.
experts assess that the country loses well over $100 billion annually as a result of water scarcity.
A growing source of tension in the Himalayas is China’s plan to dam key waters before they reach India, leaving that country (and Bangladesh) the losers.
Anoop
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Anoop »

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VnblnvdTLO0

Many unemployed Chinese are turning into livestreaming salesmen to earn a living. 4.3 million SMEs closed shop in 2021 vs 1.3 million new SMEs opened up the same year - the first time in 20 years that closures exceeded openings. This could be a delayed effect of the strict closures and lack of travel to China, policies driven by the zero-Covid policy of the CCP. Why are SMEs important? Because they account for > 50% of tax revenue, 60% of GDP and 80% of urban employment.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

A Whopping $900B Debt – China’s Once-Profitable High-Speed Railways Now Heading Towards A Trillion Dollar Disaster
In 2021, China’s high-speed rail network had covered 40,000 kilometers, connecting 93% of the country’s cities with a population of over 500,000. The nation seeks to increase its high-speed rail network to 50,000 kilometers by 2025.

However, it seems that the aggressive campaign to reap the lucrative economic dividends of HSR has increased the state-run operator’s total liabilities, which as of the end of 2021 reached 5.91 trillion yuan ($882 billion), or roughly 5% of China’s GDP, reported Asia Nikkei.

The amount is projected to increase, so concerns about China’s “hidden debt” take center stage over the country’s growth situation.
The goal of expanding the HSR network has taken precedence over concerns about debt and profitability. The state-owned China Rail Corporation (CRC) is facing the effects of a debt trap caused by massive borrowing by provincial governments in recent years to monetize their HSR lines.

Zhao Jian, a professor at Beijing Jiaotong University, quoted by the Asia Nikkei as saying, “The government’s emphasis is economic growth, and it doesn’t care about debt repayment, but each km of railway costs 120 million yuan to 130 million yuan to build.”

Accordingly, a 30,000-kilometer expansion will cost about 3.6 trillion yuan.

China Railway sells bonds to state-owned banks and brokerages to pay the costs. The Chinese government announced various economic stimulus measures on May 31 to help the country’s coronavirus-affected economy.

It includes letting China Railway issue additional 300 billion yuan worth of bonds for railway construction.

In essence, this “hidden debt” enables the government to borrow money without increasing the total amount of the official national debt. Total liabilities for China Railway increased by 4% in 2021 to 5.91 trillion yuan.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vijayk »

vijayk
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vijayk »

vijayk
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vijayk »

https://www.wionews.com/videos/china-cl ... ack-496411
China: Clashes after bank depositors stage massive protest demanding their savings back
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by S_Madhukar »

The report, from the population division of the U.N.’s Department of Economic and Social Affairs, said China and India were each home to over 1.4 billion people in 2022.

“India is projected to surpass China as the world’s most populous country during 2023,” the U.N. said. The Indian government’s census for 2011 put the country’s population at more than 1.2 billion.
https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/11/india-o ... ry-un.html
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

China cuts lending rate as economic data disappoint and Covid cases rise
China has cut a crucial lending rate in an effort to shore up growth as the world’s second-biggest economy is buffeted by repeated lockdowns and a worsening property downturn.

The People’s Bank of China on Monday reduced the medium-term lending rate, through which it provides one-year loans to the banking system, by 10 basis points to 2.75 per cent, the first cut since January. Analysts polled by Bloomberg had expected the central bank to leave the rate unchanged.

The decision highlighted deepening anxiety in Beijing as it tries to combat a months-long decline in consumer demand triggered by its drawn-out zero-Covid policy, as well as the fallout from cash-strapped property developers and slowing global growth.
Despite Beijing’s plans to inject hundreds of billions of dollars of stimulus to boost growth, China’s economy only narrowly escaped a contraction in the second quarter.

Official statistics released on Monday reflected worse than expected consumer and factory activity as the pace of the country’s economic recovery from sweeping lockdowns falters.

Retail sales, an important gauge of consumption, rose 2.7 per cent year on year in July while industrial production, a growth driver early in the pandemic, was 3.8 per cent higher. Analysts had forecast rises of 5 per cent and 4.6 per cent, respectively.

Youth unemployment rose to a record 19.9 per cent, piling more pressure on Xi Jinping’s administration to reinvigorate the economy.

Experts expect China’s economic slowdown to prompt looser monetary policy and fiscal stimulus, but some are pessimistic about the scale and speed of Beijing’s response.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by VKumar »

Waiting to see what happens when the public 'discovers' democracy, which will happen if economy tanks.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

VKumar wrote:Waiting to see what happens when the public 'discovers' democracy, which will happen if economy tanks.
They will discover Tanks of PLA.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by kit »



ACQUIRING LAND IN THE NAME OF "CHIP MANUFACTURING"

Why Chinas 7 nm tech is suspect
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

China extends power rationing for factories in drought
Power rationing that forced factories in China's southwest to shut down has been extended through at least Thursday due to low water at hydroelectric dams, according to a notice reported by news outlets and a company announcement, adding to losses from the hottest, driest summer in decades.

The “tense situation” of power supplies in Sichuan province “has further intensified,” Tencent News reported Monday. There was no public announcement, but the report included a photo of the government notice to companies. The drought and heat have wilted crops and caused rivers including the giant Yangtze to shrink, disrupting cargo traffic. State media say the government will try to protect the autumn grain harvest, which is 75% of China's annual total, by using chemicals to generate rain.
The disruption adds to challenges for the ruling Communist Party, which is trying to shore up sagging economic growth before a meeting in October or November when President Xi Jinping is expected to try to award himself a third five-year term as leader. Factories in Sichuan that make processor chips, solar panels, auto components and other industrial goods were required to shut down or reduce activity last week to conserve power for homes as air-conditioning demand surged in temperatures as high as 45 degrees Celsius (113 degrees Fahrenheit). Air-conditioning, elevators and lights were shut off in offices and shopping malls.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

Chinese are selling their Rolex watches & Hermes bags to raise quick cash as economy tumbles
While countries across the globe are opening their borders and economies after braving the pandemic, China is employing draconian measures to keep up with its 'zero-Covid tolerance' policy. Consequently, the economy has taken a tumble and another side effect has emerged; one that is affecting the second-hand market for high-end luxury goods.
Reportedly, more and more Chinese individuals are selling their prized possessions such as Rolex watches and Hermès bags. The rationale is to make money, but according to experts, the prices of these goods have fallen so rapidly in recent times that it is a loss-making trade for the panicked sellers.

According to a Financial Times report, the price of second-hand Rolex Submariners, a must-have 'watch' on every collector's list, has seen its price tumble by almost 46 per cent since March this year.

Meanwhile, classic bags such as Hermès Birkin have seen their market value dip by up to a fifth in the same period. This drop seems even grimmer when one notes that six months prior to the lockdown in Shanghai, the price of the aforementioned Rolex watch had risen by almost 240 per cent.

"The boom time is over. We are entering a correction period that could last for a long time,” a seller of second-hand luxury watches in China was quoted as saying by SCMP.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Chinese copies of luxury goods, especially watches and bags have become so so good, that even genuine dealerships cannot tell genuines and fakes apart, unless they open the watch back and examine the movement or cut open a bag. Even there, the gap is closing. I would stay away from buying any genuine resell items from China, and be very very cautious buying used luxury goods even in Eu, Japan or US.

The market will tank - given the economic outlook. If you plan to sell such stuff, sooner the better.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Vayutuvan »

Cyrano wrote:Even there, the gap is closing.
The counterargument is that if virtually there is no difference, then why not buy cheaper "luxury items"! Also, how can China produce it much cheaper than the original if their quality and workmanship are comparable to the originals? They only way they can do that is by underpaying their workers and/or flout all other norms.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vcsekhar »

Vayutuvan wrote:
Cyrano wrote:Even there, the gap is closing.
The counterargument is that if virtually there is no difference, then why not buy cheaper "luxury items"! Also, how can China produce it much cheaper than the original if their quality and workmanship are comparable to the originals? They only way they can do that is by underpaying their workers and/or flout all other norms.
This is exactly the reason why people are buying cheaper chinese white goods these days. They have learnt from the western companies very well and have implemented improved quality in their home grown products.
As far as china producing it cheaper, the cost of production and the price at the showroom have little to no relationship. The showroom price of western luxury goods is probably 10x to 100x the cost of production.

Most of the chinese component and materials companies that I have visited are very cost conscious, they are very aware of their material costs and are very very conscious of labour costs. They are also very clear about designing and making automated machines to both reduce labour cost and improve their quality. Nobody should underestimate their determination and focus on making money.
They might flout pollution norms, but, the competition for good labour is so high that if the company does not treat their labour well, they will lose them pretty quickly. I had visited one of our suppliers near Shanghai and I was given a presentation on how what all they have to do for their workers dorms and other facilities. Dont fall for the usual propaganda that chinese companies abuse their workers.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

In colonial era it was imposed factory goods, in present era it's slickly marketed aspirational high end luxury goods which have copyright, brand name and design IP protection.

Owning fake goods is a criminal offence in EU, enforced now and then, especially if you buy a bunch of LV bags and DG goggles at Vingtemille, IT, and drive across to Menton, FR.

This should apply to fakelux shipped from China too, but somehow a lot gets thru - the police and customs have other fish to chase. Lux conglomerats like LVMH, Richmond, Kering keep putting pressure though.

Coming back to China, they have progressed so much, that Swiss watch makers should seriously ask themselves why not get all/some part of it made in China? If not for the SWISS MADE label which mandates some high percentage of the watch to be made in CH , they would have sent it all to China. Like a lot of lux fashion and textile industry in Italy has already done. (Incidentally Covid entered Europe thru Italy, brought by Chinese workers who were flying down, disassembling entire textile factories and shipping them to China).

Chinese own label lux quality products are a serious threat to EU lux houses and brands in the future.

Regarding lux pricing: the really ultra high end doesn't really advertise, doesn't splash logos obscenely all over. They do made to order custom/bespoke stuff, often by hand. Most other luxury brands target the wannalook rich or the nouveau rich. Last 3 decades of global prosperity have created a huge market and therefore the mass luxury segment we see today.

The Chinese took good advantage of this trend as producers and consumers. Upped their knowhow, skills, tooling, and have started making their own designs and products.

We Indians have been eager consumers onlee.
Cyrano
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

BTW, the lux industry goes after buyers of fake lux here instead of going after the producers in China because they see China as a huge market and can't dare to piss of Chinese Govt by accusing them of IP and © theft.

As is the case with many other industries.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vcsekhar »

Cyrano wrote:BTW, the lux industry goes after buyers of fake lux here instead of going after the producers in China because they see China as a huge market and can't dare to piss of Chinese Govt by accusing them of IP and © theft.
As is the case with many other industries.
The EU authorities go after their own people because its a lot easier, its pretty much impossible to go after the manufacturers in China. But making in China is not so cheap anymore, so, its possible that the fake goods issue will slowly reduce on its own.
Cyrano
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

Yes, you're right. Going after Chinese co.s in china is pretty much impossible. Somehow all this didn't prevent the west from outsourcing to China for decades... Was it just to make a quick buck?
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vera_k »

This is the new spice trade.

The People’s Republic of Shein
A security guard posted at the entrance said that on each of the three days the pop-up was in business, he’d turned down about 20 bribes from people looking to skip the line. Often they offered $20, he said, though some went as high as $100.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by vcsekhar »

Cyrano wrote:Yes, you're right. Going after Chinese co.s in china is pretty much impossible. Somehow all this didn't prevent the west from outsourcing to China for decades... Was it just to make a quick buck?
Yes, it was to make a quick buck. Results of huge stock options to CEO's who did short term stuff to push up their stock value and then exited after making a quick buck.
The trend started with GE under welch. He was the pioneer and GE moved huge numbers of factories to China to make their consumer white goods. It took about 10 years and at the end, pretty much every one of the famed GE consumer white goods were copied and sold by native Chinese manufacturers.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

"The People’s Republic of Shein"
This fast trash fashion relies on SM influencers and buzz they create. Cheap price = quicker in some landfill.
Read somewhere that there is enough new clothing on the planet (a lot of it synthetic) enough to last for all mankind until 2100. Consumption and GDP growth driven economic models will reach a crumbling point when resources run out. China will demonstrate this very soon, their response as a soulless civilisation will be predatory conquest, starting with neighbours.
kit
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by kit »

Cyrano wrote:"The People’s Republic of Shein"
China will demonstrate this very soon, their response as a soulless civilisation will be predatory conquest, starting with neighbours.
Indeed something has to give, the time tested option is to start a war. The only question is when. A war with India is highly likely and to a lesser extent Taiwan as less consequences. One just hopes that better sense prevails.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Cyrano »

The flashpoint can be Brahmaputra waters, the recent conflicts are for subduing India so that we give in meekly when the time comes plus to exploit our growing markets and economy. To get us to believe that we are better off under their umbrella and any resistance is futile.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

For the first time in 30 years, Asia’s developing economies are set to grow faster than China’s, ADB says
Asia’s developing economies may be showing signs of recovery, but the Asian Development Bank (ADB) cut its growth forecasts for them yet again — thanks to China’s prolonged zero-Covid policy. But this will be the first time in more than three decades that the rest of developing Asia will grow faster than China, the Manila-based lender said in its latest outlook report released Wednesday. “The last time was in 1990, when (China’s) growth slowed to 3.9% while GDP in the rest of the region expanded by 6.9%,” it said. The ADB now expects developing Asia — excluding China — to grow by 5.3% in 2022, and China by 3.3% in the same year.
Both figures are further downgrades — in July, for example, it slashed its growth forecast for China to 4% from 5%. The ADB attributed that to sporadic lockdowns from the nation’s zero-Covid policy, problems in the property sector, and slowing economic activity in light of weaker external demand.

It also lowered its 2023 forecast for China’s economic growth to 4.5% from April’s 4.8% outlook on “deteriorating external demand continuing to dampen investment in manufacturing.”
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

‘There was no hope’: the Chinese factories struggling to survive
Jimmy sat on the dusty floor of his factory in Guangdong, chasing the money he still owed. His workers had been paid off, the machines had been sold and even the office furniture had been removed after he closed the factory doors for the last time in October.

“The drop in orders and the constant lockdowns were all reasons why I wanted to close the factory,” he told the Financial Times. “But most of all it felt like there was no hope. There was no sign of a rebound.”

Plant managers in southern China report a 50 percent drop in orders in October due to full inventories in the US and Europe, bolstering the bleak outlook for the world’s second-largest economy.

October is normally a particularly busy period for the manufacturing industry and the sharp decline in activity has made it difficult for workers to find a job.

The setback poses yet another complication for Beijing’s state planners, who are already grappling with a mounting real estate crisis, sporadic lockdowns and weak consumer confidence. Last month, China reported that gross domestic product grew just 3.9 percent year-on-year in the third quarter, short of an annual target of 5.5 percent.
Alan Scanlan, a Hong Kong executive who works in southern China, said the slowdown was the inevitable result of the end of the e-commerce boom after buyers ran out of stock before 2022.

For example, Nike reported in September that its North American inventories were up 65 percent at the end of the third quarter compared to the previous year.

Last month, China’s purchasing managers’ index fell from 50.1 in September to 49.2 from 50.1 in September, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. On Monday, official data showed exports contracted by 0.3 percent; they had expected a 4.5 percent increase. Economists pinned the decline to a drop in orders and haphazard lockdowns under China’s zero-covid policy.

“We are in a scenario where Chinese domestic demand is affected by lockdowns, and externally we see this weaker demand from Europe and the US driven by high global interest rates,” said Gary Ng, an economist at Natixis in Hong Kong. Kong. kong.

“That can be quite problematic when we talk about southern China. . . these provinces are important to the Chinese economy.”

An official in Dongguan City, a manufacturing center in Guangdong, said local governments struggled to maintain subsidies to help factories because they also had to pay for Covid testing.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by S_Madhukar »

We need to show some Pakiness and constantly talk about an impeding attack from Cheen while simultaneously polishing our defence. Let there be a latent playbook in place if Eleven decides to take panga.
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Re: PRC Economy - New Reflections : April 20 2015

Post by Dilbu »

China stocks shed $550bn in value as doubts overshadow growth
Chinese equities have suffered a brutal sell-off since China reported a strong first-quarter of economic growth, in a sign of investor doubts over whether the country can sustain its rebound.

Stocks included in the benchmark indices of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges have together lost almost Rmb3.6tn ($519bn) in market capitalisation since April 18, when China reported annual quarterly growth of 4.5 per cent. The market value of companies included in the Nasdaq Golden Dragon index, which tracks China’s top New York-listed tech groups, has also dropped by more than $31bn.

The sell-off reflects uncertainty on the outlook for China’s economy and apprehension that the economic recovery from years of Beijing’s disruptive zero-Covid policy could falter in the coming months — even though the headline number reported by Beijing, in its first full quarter since authorities ended the zero-Covid approach, exceeded most forecasts.
While data released alongside first-quarter GDP growth last week showed substantial growth in both retail sales and exports for March, investment in the private sector — which has less ready access to lending compared with state-run companies in China — has lagged behind.

Growth in China’s vital property sector, which has struggled to exit a liquidity crisis brought on by a sector-wide crackdown on leverage in recent years, has also remained sluggish.
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