India and the Global Warming Debate

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Raju

Postby Raju » 07 Apr 2007 20:48

Absolute rubbish !

This April in dilli is the most pleasant April I have ever seen. This is global cooling. :twisted:

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Postby svinayak » 09 Apr 2007 05:58

"Climate change will devastate India"

Daphne Wysham and Smitu Kothari

In South Asia, millions of people will find their lands and homes inundated, according to a draft report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

A FINAL draft of a report leaked from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to the authors lays out shocking scenarios for India and the rest of South Asia. The summary for policy makers that was released by the IPCC on Friday is a call for urgent action globally. While shocking, the fuller final draft version of the Second Working Group of the IPCC's Fourth Assessment Report, which may be watered down before final publication, makes for even more sobering reading: It lays out in explicit detail what lies ahead for India and the rest of Asia. It also presents an opportunity for the country to take the lead in defining a more secure and sustainable future for itself.

Here are some of the devastating consequences detailed in the provisional February 16, 2007, IPCC report on Asia: Sea levels will rise by at least 40 cm by 2100, inundating vast areas on the coastline, including some of the most densely populated cities whose populations will be forced to migrate inland or build dykes — both requiring a financial and logistical challenge that will be unprecedented. In the South Asian region as a whole, millions of people will find their lands and homes inundated. Up to 88 per cent of all of Asia's coral reefs, termed the "rainforests of the ocean" because of the critical habitat they provide to sea creatures, may be lost as a result of warming ocean temperatures.

The Ganga, Brahmaputra, and Indus will become seasonal rivers, dry between monsoon rains as Himalayan glaciers will continue their retreat, vanishing entirely by 2035, if not sooner. Water tables will continue to fall and the gross per capita water availability in India will decline by over one-third by 2050 as rivers dry up, water tables fall or grow more saline. Water scarcity will in turn affect the health of vast populations, with a rise in water-borne diseases such as cholera. Other diseases such as dengue fever and malaria are also expected to rise.

Crop productivity will fall, especially in non-irrigated land, as temperatures rise for all of South Asia by as much as 1.2 degrees C on average by 2040, and even greater crop loss — of over 25 per cent — as temperatures rise to up to 5.4 degrees C by the end of the century. This means an even lower caloric intake for India's vast rural population, already pushed to the limit, with the possibility of starvation in many rural areas dependent on rainfall for their crops. Even those areas that rely on irrigation will find a growing crisis in adequate water availability.

Mortality due to heat-related deaths will climb, with the poor, the elderly and daily wage earners and agricultural workers suffering a rise in heat-related deaths.

This grim future awaits India in the coming century. The irony is that much of this damage will be self-inflicted, unless the country is prepared to make a radical, enlightened change in its energy and transportation strategies.

We are truly at a crossroads: Either we can be complacent or wait for leadership from a reluctant United States, the largest greenhouse gas emitter in the world, or begin to take action now, regardless of what other countries do.

The path that India has taken thus far, of waiting until wealthy countries take action on global warming, is understandable if viewed in isolation. The U.S., the U.K., and other countries in the wealthy North, have developed their economies largely thanks to fossil fuels. It is only fair that India be allowed to attain the same standard of living before curbing its emissions.

But as the IPCC report makes clear, while it may be "fair" to do so, it is also suicidal for India to pursue any strategy but the least carbon-intensive path toward its own development. Wealthy, less populous countries in the North are very likely — and very unfairly — going to suffer fewer devastating blows to their economies, and may actually benefit with extended growing seasons, while India and other South Asian nations will dramatically and painfully suffer if action is not taken now.

Today, much of India's energy comes from coal, most of it mined in the rural areas of Orissa, Jharkhand, and Bihar with devastating consequences. Tribals and small and marginal peasants are being forced to resettle as these mines grow wider by the day. Inadequate resettlement plans mean more migration of landless populations to urban slums. The environment is being destroyed by these mines and their waste products — among them fly ash laced with heavy metals and other toxic materials. But the biggest irony of this boom in coal-fired power is that much of the power is going to export-oriented, energy-intensive industry. Look at Orissa's coal belt and you will find a plethora of foreign-owned and Indian aluminium smelters, steel mills, and sponge iron factories — all burning India's coal, at a heavy cost to local populations — then exporting a good share of the final product to the China, the U.S. or other foreign markets.

Volatile mix

Add to the problem of export-oriented, energy-intensive industry the problem of carbon trades, and you have a volatile mix. India is one of the top destinations globally in the growing carbon market. In exchange for carbon trade projects in India, wealthy polluters in the North are able to avoid restrictions on their own emissions. Rather than financing "clean development" projects as promised, many of these trades are cheap, dirty, and harmful to the rural poor. Fast-growing eucalyptus plantations are displacing farmers from their land and tribals from their forests. Sponge-iron factories are garnering more money from carbon trades earned by capturing "waste heat" than from the production of the raw material itself. Toxic fly ash from coal-fired power plants is being turned into bricks, and the carbon that would have been released from traditional clay-fired brick kilns, is now an invisible commodity that can be sold as carbon credits. These carbon trades are not helping finance clean energy and development for India's rural poor.

Add to this the special economic zones or SEZs — forcing people off their land, where blood, often of the most vulnerable, is shed at the altar of development.

Global warming will tighten this growing squeeze to a noose, as huge areas of Bangladesh go underwater and environmental refugees flood across India's borders. The leaked final draft of the IPCC report shows that Bangladesh is slated to lose the largest amount of land globally — approximately 1000 square km of cultivated land — due to sea level rise. Where will all of those hungry, thirsty, landless millions go? Most will flock to the border looking for avenues to enter, exacerbating an already tense situation not only in the States contiguous to Bangladesh but in cities as far off as Mumbai and Delhi.

Undoubtedly, global warming is not fair. It is exacting the highest price on those least responsible for the problem. But India can show the world that there is another way forward: A self-interested, self-preserving way, focussed on clean energy such as solar and wind; on energy efficiency; on providing for its own population's energy needs ahead of foreign corporations; on public transportation plans that strengthen India's vast network of rail and bus transportation routes, rather than weakening it with public subsidies to massive highways and to automakers. The IPCC final draft report urges India and other Asian countries to prepare for the coming climate apocalypse with crop varieties that can withstand higher temperatures, salinated aquifers, and an increase in pests. It also advises better water resource management and better disease monitoring and control. While important, prevention is always the best medicine.

The IPCC final draft report should be seen as a conservative assessment of what lies in store. It clearly implies that incremental or palliative responses to reduce vulnerability are not the answer. India and the other countries of the region need to take a preventative approach by moving their economies away from fossil fuels and toward clean, renewable forms of energy. This is the only way of preserving a sustainable way of life that could be a model for the world. If it pursues what is "fair" in a warming world by continuing to argue that industrialised nation are to blame and need to take urgent action, it will be placing the noose around its own neck while the hangman looks on.

(Daphne Wysham is a Fellow, Institute for Policy Studies, Washington and Smitu Kothari is Director, Intercultural Resources, Delhi and Visiting Professor, Princeton University.)

Raju

Postby Raju » 09 Apr 2007 10:28

Global warming labeled a 'scam'
By Al Webb
THE WASHINGTON TIMES
March 6, 2007

LONDON -- With a packet of claims that are almost certain to defy conventional wisdom, a television documentary to be aired in Britain this week condemns man-made global warming as a myth that has become "the biggest scam of modern times."
The program titled "The Great Global Warming Scandal" and set for screening by TV Channel 4 on Thursday dismisses claims that high levels of greenhouse gases generated by human activity causes climate change. Instead, the program suggests that the sun itself is the real culprit.
The documentary, directed by filmmaker Martin Durkin, is at odds with scientific opinion as outlined in a United Nations report in February, which blames mankind for global warming.
In his program, Mr. Durkin rejects the concept of man-made climate change, calling it "a lie ... the biggest scam of modern times."
The truth, he says, is that global warming "is a multibillion-dollar worldwide industry, created by fanatically anti-industrial environmentalists, supported by scientists peddling scare stories to chase funding, and propped up by compliant politicians and the media."
Channel 4 says that the program features "an impressive roll-call of experts," including nine professors, who are experts in climatology, oceanography, meteorology, biogeography and paleoclimatology.
It also says the experts come from prestigious institutions such as the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the Pasteur Institute in Paris, the Danish National Space Center and universities and other schools in London, Ottawa, Jerusalem, Alabama, Virginia and Winnipeg, Canada.
"It's very rare that a film changes history," says Martin Durkin, "but I think this is a turning point, and in five years the idea that the greenhouse effect is the main reason behind global warming will be seen as total bunk," he says.
His program collides sharply with the premise outlined in former Vice President Al Gore's Oscar-winning documentary, "An Inconvenient Truth," which presents a bleak picture of how a buildup in greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide affects the global climate, with potentially disastrous consequences.
"Al Gore might have won an Oscar," says Mr. Durkin, in a preview of the documentary, "but the film is very misleading, and he has got the relationship between [carbon dioxide] and climate change the wrong way around."
One of the filmmaker's experts, paleontologist professor Ian Clark of the University of Ottawa, says that global warming could be caused by increased activity on the sun, such as massive eruptions, and that ice-core samples from Antarctica show that, in fact, warmer periods in Earth's history have come about 800 years before rises in carbon dioxide levels.
Mr. Clark's findings appear to contradict the work of other scientists, who have used similar ice-core samples to illustrate that raised levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere have accompanied the various global warming periods.

"The fact is that [carbon dioxide] has no proven link to global temperatures," says Mr. Durkin. "Solar activity is far more likely to be the culprit."
Scientists in the Channel 4 documentary cite what they claim is another discrepancy involving conventional research, saying that most of the recent global warming occurred before 1940, after which temperatures around the world fell for four decades.
Mr. Durkin's skeptical specialists view this as a flaw in the official view, because the worldwide economic boom that followed the end of World War II produced more carbon dioxide, and therefore should have meant a rise in global temperatures -- something he says did not happen.
"The Great Global Warming Swindle" also questions an assertion by the U.N. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's report, published last month, that it was backed by some 2,500 of the world's leading scientists.
Another of Mr. Durkin's professors, Paul Reiter of Paris' Pasteur Institute, an expert in malaria, calls the U.N. report a "sham" because, he says, it included the names of scientists -- including his own -- who disagreed with the report and who resigned from the panel.
"That is how they make it seem that all the top scientists are agreed," he says. "It's not true."
Mr. Reiter says his name was removed only after he threatened legal action against the panel. The report itself, he adds, was finalized by government appointees.:lol:
Yet another expert in the Durkin documentary, Philip Stott, professor emeritus of biogeography at the School of Oriental and African Studies in London, is more circumspect.
"The [climate] system is too complex to say exactly what the effect of cutting back on [carbon dioxide] production would be or, indeed, of continuing to produce [carbon dioxide]."
"The greenhouse effect theory worried me from the start," Mr. Stott says, "because you can't say that just one factor can have this effect."
"At the moment, there is almost a McCarthyism movement in science where the greenhouse effect is like a puritanical religion, and this is dangerous," he says.
http://washingtontimes.com/world/200703 ... -6282r.htm

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Postby Bade » 01 May 2007 20:22

IMD and its weather 'pastcasts'

This is the only thread which has close relevance to IMD activities, hence I put it here. The comments from readers at the end of the article is also revealing. In any case it is true that IMD forecasts do not have the spatial granularity that we get here in the USA something they need to work on with high priority in addition to the long range forecasts.

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Postby Aruni » 01 May 2007 21:04

I saw the Channel 4 programme mentioned earlier in the thread. Basically it linked the current round of warming to a historical process of cyclical fluctuations in the earth's temperature and denied that humans had anything to do with it, or could alter its course in some way.

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Postby saty » 01 May 2007 21:06

Raju wrote:Absolute rubbish !

This April in dilli is the most pleasant April I have ever seen. This is global cooling. :twisted:


Absolutely I am still drinking my winter drink (Whiskey) and not shifted to my summer cooler (Gin and Tonic)
8)

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Postby nandy » 01 May 2007 22:26

Mr. Durkin of 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' has gained enough notoriety for throwing many an etiquette of journalism out of the window. His documentary has been roundly condemned by the Independent Television Commission for misleading the contributors on the purpose of the program, and for distorting and misrepresenting the known views of multiple interviewees. A good synposis of the misrepresentations of scientific evidence in Mr. Durkin's documentary can be found at http://www.climateofdenial.net/?q=node/3

The spring in New England has been quite pleasant for last couple of weeks as well. Hopefully it will stay that way for our children.

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Postby shyamd » 01 May 2007 23:14

Was reading an interview by one of the exxon leaders in fortune, he admitted that they have been funding scientists and others to bring out evidence against global warming.

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Postby Prem » 01 May 2007 23:55

Need to burn coal faster... let the polluted clouds drift Westward till they spare so Uranium .

http://www.upi.com/Energy/Briefing/2007 ... al_blocks/

NEW DELHI, April 30 (UPI) -- India says it is planning to auction coal blocks for captive use through a competitive bidding process.
The Ministry of Mines said the move was aimed at bringing transparency into the allocation process.

"The Ministry of Mines has already initiated the proposal and sent it to the center (the federal government) for action," the ministry said. "This is necessary because auction of coal blocks available are declining and the numbers of bidders is increasing due to rise in the demand of coal."

The ministry says it has received 1,400 applications for 38 coal blocks for captive use.

A government-backed screening committee allocates the coal blocks for captive use through an evaluation process. This committee has so far allocated 123 coal blocks, The Business Standard newspaper said Monday

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Postby Bade » 02 May 2007 02:21

Arctic ice cap melting 30 years ahead of forecast

This is quite sensational, so maybe we ordinary jingos can circumnavigate pole to pole within our lifetimes. :twisted:

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Postby Johann » 02 May 2007 02:23

Whether or not climate change is man-made, changes in the monsoons and glaciers will have *huge* economic impact on a country where 80% of the population lives in rural areas.

If India does find itself in such a position - it will be the biggest challenge since independence in terms of economic and political stability.

It may have to industrialise & urbanise *faster* to reduce the percentage of the population dependant on agriculture for their livelihood.

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Postby SaiK » 02 May 2007 03:21

the global warming is believed to be increasing at exponential rate caused by earthworms.. npr storied existence giant asian sized earthworms in norther canada and the poles, where they get the Co2 out off the soil (that was preserved by the plants) to the atmosphere making it faster rate.

whatever it is, it is a fact that the climatic changes are being seen at a rate which corresponds very much with human activity against nature. who says humans can't be Gods to cause changes in earth! :evil:

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Postby nandy » 02 May 2007 03:51

shyamd Posted: 01 May 2007 01:44 pm Post subject:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Was reading an interview by one of the exxon leaders in fortune, he admitted that they have been funding scientists and others to bring out evidence against global warming.


$10,000 were offered to scientists and economists to undermine the IPCC's report on climate change. Funding came from thinktanks and institutions with well-known ties to the oil companies. The exercise may be going on in the present.

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Anyway Global warning is a reality

Postby joshvajohn » 03 May 2007 18:10

Whether one blames human cause or solar cause, the global warming is a reality today - faster than what we thought. In UK it is like Bangalore in 1980s. May be with in a decade we need fans here and then Airconditioning as it predicted it is going to be 40 degrees C this year itself by some newspapers.

One of my friends was telling me here that as he travelled via Andra and Tamil Nadu it was like travelling on the Moon. It is plain rocky areas without any green around. One may argue when there is no water for drinking how can one develop green in the South.

But it is time for the Tamil Nadu and Andra to develop green lands in the waste lands. It is a must for the people to live and survive in future with 45 and above degrees. Schools and other NGOs and even Agri industries should get involved in this serious business.

Green lands should be subsidized in many ways not to convert them into agri land.

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Postby svinayak » 09 May 2007 22:10

[quote]Paying for the sins of West
Tuesday, May 08, 2007 10:33:24 IST
Global warming is worse than the population explosion waiting to hit the region. Strange, all this does not move the region


for :

This God-forsaken region comprising India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Nepal and the Maldives has found time to discuss everything under the sun, but never the environment, ecology or climate. Yet this is where global warming affects the most. The disappointing part is not the lack of knowledge. It is the lack of interest. I am not aware of any effort in the region to fight global warming.
The International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) at Brussels has predicted dire consequences: 30 per cent of species will be wiped out, 3.2 billion people will face water shortage and a large-scale melting of the Himalayan glaciers will play havoc in the Gangetic plains.
An increase of a mere one foot of sea water can endanger Mumbai and Kolkata as much as it could Karachi, Chittagong and Colombo. Even if the rise is not that much, the countries in the region cannot afford to wait and watch. How to tackle the impending disaster coolly and collectively is the question stares us. India set up a Department of Environment in 1981. Similar official establishments exist in the other countries as well. Alas, all of them are lost in trivialities. They have never budgeted anything for steps to fight against the challenge hurled at them. Nor have they planned anything as a region.

Decades of pollution
The famous Sunderbans in West Bengal has lost 10 per cent of its area as well as some rare species to the rising water. Some experts in the West say that glaciers are melting, raising the surface of seas. Because new glaciers are not taking the place of the old ones, many rivers have less water than before. Environmentalist Sunder Lal Bahuguna who has been living not far from the source of the Ganges, Gangotri, says that during the span of three decades he has seen the river shrinking. It appears that this is the story all over the region.
The worst may happen in India, Bangladesh and Sri Lanka in that order. Change in the climate may turn fertile lands into deserts. It is estimated that 200 million people in the region will be forced to leave their hearth and home to new places where the influx may create problems of its own. Either the lessening of rain or too much of it at certain places is a relatively recent phenomenon.
I recall Prime Minister Indira Gandhi asking the Agricultural Ministry for analysing the cause for disturbed rainfall cycle. There was no follow up. The examination never went beyond the collection of press clippings and Mrs Gandhi’s own statement. Studies done in India, however, indicate that the economic development has been halved by hazards like climate and loss of water. This is true of Pakistan and Bangladesh as well. Their growth has also been curtailed by unpredictable natural factors.
The situation is serious. One need not believe the World Wildlife Fund report which warned that humans would need to find two other earths in space to survive because the earth’s resources would be exhausted by 2050. Yet, immediate steps should be taken to save resources. Some time ago, a Nobel laureate economist told me in Delhi that India’s problem would not be the population but water. This is true because there is already a running battle between the states over river waters. India’s Chief Justice K.G. Balakrishnan has revealed that the largest number of legal disputes pertain to water shortages. Punjab, Haryana, Tamil Nadu and Karnataka are in constant litigation over water sharing. One hears shrill voices over the Kala Dam in Pakistan.
Groundwater sources are depleting in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Bangalore, Lucknow and Hyderabad. This is as much truer of cities in Pakistan, Bangladesh or Sri Lanka. On top of it, trees are being cut indiscriminately in the region. As many as 30,000trees are in the process of being uprooted in Lahore alone.
I blame the developed world, particularly the West, which has progressed at the expense of poor nations like ours. We are paying for their sins. Uganda President Museweni has aptly described the emission of gases by the developed countries as “an act of aggressionâ€

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Postby SaiK » 16 May 2007 21:58

http://news.yahoo.com/s/livescience/200 ... antarctica
California-Sized Area of Ice Melts in Antarctica

“But now large regions are showing the first signs of the impacts of warming as interpreted by this satellite analysis.â€

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Postby Mort Walker » 16 May 2007 23:06

When I was in Delhi a couple of weeks ago, FM radio advertisements were pervasive about using compact flurescents (CFLs) for light bulbs as part of a Greenpeace initiative about Global Warming.

What the idiots don't state is that CFLs have mercury in them and its disposal would be problematic in India. The only advantages are reduced heat and smaller electricity consumption. The environmental impact is worse or a wash at best.

Raju

Postby Raju » 16 May 2007 23:15

The Great Cap-and-Trade Scam

South Orange, NJ 07079 May 13 2007

By Alan Caruba

Of all the crazed global warming proposals being put forth by the new masters of Congress, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Sen. Barbara Boxer, chairperson of the Public Works Committee, by far the worst would be a mandated cap-and-trade program that would supposedly offset carbon dioxide emissions.

This program is horrid on several counts. First, there is not a scintilla of scientific evidence—other than disputed and dubious computer models—to suggest that any significant global warming is occurring. The warming and cooling of the Earth is an entirely natural phenomenon.

Second, carbon dioxide (CO2) plays only a minor role as a so-called greenhouse gas. The predominant greenhouse gas is water vapor produced by the world’s oceans. The Earth has been warming since the last Ice Age and, even if a mild warming were to occur, the only result would be an extended period to grow more crops and to enhance the growth of the world’s forests that generate the oxygen on which all humans depend for life.

Third, the notion that man-made CO2 emissions—the result of industrial activity, the use of cars and trucks for transportation, and a host of other things humans do—is a major contributor to “climate changeâ€

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Global Warming

Postby msdogra » 16 May 2007 23:49

nandy wrote:Mr. Durkin of 'The Great Global Warming Swindle' has gained enough notoriety for throwing many an etiquette of journalism out of the window. His documentary has been roundly condemned by the Independent Television Commission for misleading the contributors on the purpose of the program, and for distorting and misrepresenting the known views of multiple interviewees. A good synposis of the misrepresentations of scientific evidence in Mr. Durkin's documentary can be found at http://www.climateofdenial.net/?q=node/3

The spring in New England has been quite pleasant for last couple of weeks as well. Hopefully it will stay that way for our children.


We all have to do our bit to make this happen.

Raju

Postby Raju » 23 May 2007 08:45

Delhi climate already changing?
23 May, 2007 l 0201 hrs ISTlAmit Bhattacharya/TIMES NEWS NETWORK


NEW DELHI: As May goes in Delhi, the weather this year has been unusually fickle. Instead of the searing loo, the city has had thundershowers bringing temperatures down every few days.

Not that Delhiites are complaining, but questions have been asked about the loo — so synonymous with the Delhi summer — playing hooky intermittently for the past several years. The city also had an uncharacteristically long, and mild, winter running up to the end of March this year. Is the city climate changing?

The Indian Meteorological Department says these deviations are normal, but there's at least one climate expert who sees a larger trend. "These are manifestations of climate change due to global warming," says Murari Lal, a former IIT professor who is now a senior climate change specialist with a transnational infrastructure consultancy firm.

"Delhi weather has been showing high variability in the last few years. Certain fixed weather markers, like the inevitable rain in February and loo winds in May, have been disturbed. For instance, instead of February, it rained in April this year. I see these as local signals of a global change in weather," says Lal, who has served as the lead author from India in most reports of the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Lal's prognosis is severe. He says unpredictability in Delhi's weather will increase in the next 8-10 years before stabilising into a new pattern. "It's difficult to predict what specific weather changes will occur, but, undeniably, intra-seasonal variability across India will increase," he says.

Raju

Postby Raju » 23 May 2007 09:12

One person says there is global warming but only for 8-10 yrs, and another can't see outside his well, and is used to his cosy govt job wherein all weather patterns can be attributed to *western disturbances*. Two conmen at work peddling half-truths.

Global warming is destabilising patterns
Anil Bhattacharya | TNN

New Delhi: The moist May this year has been attributed to a gradual weakening of a tropical atmospheric pattern called the Walker Circulation, which is associated, among other things with the El Nino phenomenon, says Murari Lal, a former IIT professor who is now a senior climate change specialist with a transnational infrastructure consultancy firm.

This has grave implications for India, he says, "A strong Walker Circulation would bring hot, dry winds sweeing in fro the Sahara, leading to the loo in northern India, Global warming is challenging the robustness of this hitherto stable pattern. The loo, you would have noticed has become irregular in large parts of north-west India."

Lal, who uses a multi-modal ensemble to analyse weather trends, says a wekened Walker pattern has led to a moist summer this year, with the rising heat immediately leading to ascending winds bringing in rain.

He predicts that the temperature in the Capital this summer wouldn't cross 45 grees Celsius because rains will intervene to bring the mercury down as soon as it hits the 43-degree mark.

Inida's official weather watcher, the IMD, though has a different take, Climatologist DS Pai of IMD, Pune says the the wet May phenomenon falls well within the normal weather variations.

"The current rainsfall is due to western disturbances. Though global warming is leading to a general temperature rise, there's nothing yet to show that it's affecting weather patterns in India."

That's missing the woods for the tres, says Lal. "You don't get the big picture by analysing a localised area. Worldwide trends need to be studied using multiple weather models. And they are already telling a story for those willing to listen."


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Postby merlin » 23 May 2007 10:27

One person says there is global warming but only for 8-10 yrs


Where did he say that? He only said that Delhi will have unpredictable weather patterns for 8-10 years and stabilize after that. Most probably stabilize into the new weather pattern, so forget about the weather pattern in recorded history that will truly be history in a few years.

The first signs of weather patterns changing globally are already being seen and the instability will get worse before it stabilizes. The "forecast" is more rain in the south of India and less rain for the north.

Raju

Postby Raju » 23 May 2007 10:44

I am contesting his claims of 'global warming' and taking the stance that temperature changes are not due to global warming but due to solar flares/sunspots. This is the reason for rapid changes in temperature. Moreover I consider 'global warming' to be a hoax.

Solar flares will abate in 5-8 years when a certain process is complete, then climate changes will also stop.

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Postby SaiK » 23 May 2007 11:23

Raju wrote:Delhi climate already changing?
23 May, 2007 l 0201 hrs ISTlAmit Bhattacharya/TIMES NEWS NETWORK


http://www.foxhome.com/dayaftertomorrow/ ??

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Postby KrishnaMu » 23 May 2007 17:48

I saw the programme last night, quite interesting surprising to know India has world’s largest wind farm.
Should Indians drive cars?


As per me I have replaced my ordinary bulbs with energy efficient bulbs in my home. :-)

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Postby saty » 23 May 2007 17:56

merlin wrote:The first signs of weather patterns changing globally are already being seen and the instability will get worse before it stabilizes. The "forecast" is more rain in the south of India and less rain for the north.


But so far north has not seen less rain :-?

So when will we see the first signs of the great disaster? And can you quickly sum up what signs are being seen today?

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Postby merlin » 23 May 2007 18:18

But so far north has not seen less rain


Patience my dear boy patience. Rome was not built in a day.

Less rain for north India is predicted to be long term, not something you'll see in the short term (say a couple or even five years).

For the record, I think we will see weather patterns changing and whether it will be global warming or global cooling only time will tell.

So when will we see the first signs of the great disaster? And can you quickly sum up what signs are being seen today?


Which great disaster? If the changes happen slowly we will adapt and if they happen quickly we will be forced to adapt in a hurry.

And signs being seen today? Unusually warm autumn and winter in Central Europe last year, for one. Was that a one off? You tell me.
[/quote]

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Postby saty » 23 May 2007 18:26

Well the great disaster being tomtommed that north is going to dry up and all that you know.

Anyway in the long term we are all dead anyway so why bother :P

but I really think all this global warming thing is a scam; conveniently the only people supposedly really adversely affected are poor and next to poor folks; somehow the picture seems to be we need to maintain status quo therefore the poor must not burn coal or they will all be affected.... west is anyway okay you know

Scam I tell you

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Postby nandy » 23 May 2007 20:54

Stanford Solar Center

Here are some excerpts from the above link. Some food for thought for "Global-warming-caused-by-solar-radiation" school of thought.

Some uncertainty remains about the role of natural variations in causing climate change. Solar variability certainly plays a minor role, but it looks like only a quarter of the recent variations can be attributed to the Sun. At most. During the initial discovery period of global warming, the magnitude of the influence of increased activity on the Sun was not well determined.


Solar irradiance changes have been measured reliably by satellites for only 30 years. These precise observations show changes of a few tenths of a percent that depend on the level of activity in the 11-year solar cycle. Changes over longer periods must be inferred from other sources. Estimates of earlier variations are important for calibrating the climate models. While a component of recent global warming may have been caused by the increased solar activity of the last solar cycle, that component was very small compared to the effects of additional greenhouse gases. According to a NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) press release, "...the solar increases do not have the ability to cause large global temperature increases...greenhouse gases are indeed playing the dominant role..." The Sun is once again less bright as we approach solar minimum, yet global warming continues.


One more link downplaying the significance of solar activity in explaining global warming from the mecca of space studies.

Press Release from Goddard

but I really think all this global warming thing is a scam; conveniently the only people supposedly really adversely affected are poor and next to poor folks; somehow the picture seems to be we need to maintain status quo therefore the poor must not burn coal or they will all be affected.... west is anyway okay you know

IMO folks who claim global warming to be a scam need to be just as much cautious as those who want to portray a doomsday scenario. There are lot of unknonws when it comes to global warming. Just leave it at that. As far as the consequences of global warming, they will certainly vary spatially. It may be benefitial for some while damaging to others. All the more reason for India to undertake studies independent of global efforts, and determine what is best for herself. Calling it a scam or the next apocalypse will only find us unprepared and in a very unpleasant situation.

Raju

Postby Raju » 23 May 2007 21:17

Mars Melt Hints at Solar, Not Human, Cause for Warming, Scientist Says
Kate Ravilious
for National Geographic News
February 28, 2007

Simultaneous warming on Earth and Mars suggests that our planet's recent climate changes have a natural—and not a human-induced—cause, according to one scientist's controversial theory.

Earth is currently experiencing rapid warming, which the vast majority of climate scientists says is due to humans pumping huge amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. (Get an overview: "Global Warming Fast Facts".)

Mars, too, appears to be enjoying more mild and balmy temperatures.

In 2005 data from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions revealed that the carbon dioxide "ice caps" near Mars's south pole had been diminishing for three summers in a row.

Habibullo Abdussamatov, head of space research at St. Petersburg's Pulkovo Astronomical Observatory in Russia, says the Mars data is evidence that the current global warming on Earth is being caused by changes in the sun.

"The long-term increase in solar irradiance is heating both Earth and Mars," he said.

Solar Cycles

Abdussamatov believes that changes in the sun's heat output can account for almost all the climate changes we see on both planets.

Mars and Earth, for instance, have experienced periodic ice ages throughout their histories.

"Man-made greenhouse warming has made a small contribution to the warming seen on Earth in recent years, but it cannot compete with the increase in solar irradiance," Abdussamatov said.

By studying fluctuations in the warmth of the sun, Abdussamatov believes he can see a pattern that fits with the ups and downs in climate we see on Earth and Mars.

Abdussamatov's work, however, has not been well received by other climate scientists.

"His views are completely at odds with the mainstream scientific opinion," said Colin Wilson, a planetary physicist at England's Oxford University.

"And they contradict the extensive evidence presented in the most recent IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] report." (Related: "Global Warming 'Very Likely' Caused by Humans, World Climate Experts Say" [February 2, 2007].)

Amato Evan, a climate scientist at the University of Wisconsin, Madison, added that "the idea just isn't supported by the theory or by the observations."

Planets' Wobbles

The conventional theory is that climate changes on Mars can be explained primarily by small alterations in the planet's orbit and tilt, not by changes in the sun.

"Wobbles in the orbit of Mars are the main cause of its climate change in the current era," Oxford's Wilson explained. (Related: "Don't Blame Sun for Global Warming, Study Says" [September 13, 2006].)

All planets experience a few wobbles as they make their journey around the sun. Earth's wobbles are known as Milankovitch cycles and occur on time scales of between 20,000 and 100,000 years.

These fluctuations change the tilt of Earth's axis and its distance from the sun and are thought to be responsible for the waxing and waning of ice ages on Earth.

Mars and Earth wobble in different ways, and most scientists think it is pure coincidence that both planets are between ice ages right now.

"Mars has no [large] moon, which makes its wobbles much larger, and hence the swings in climate are greater too," Wilson said.

No Greenhouse

Perhaps the biggest stumbling block in Abdussamatov's theory is his dismissal of the greenhouse effect, in which atmospheric gases such as carbon dioxide help keep heat trapped near the planet's surface.

He claims that carbon dioxide has only a small influence on Earth's climate and virtually no influence on Mars.

But "without the greenhouse effect there would be very little, if any, life on Earth, since our planet would pretty much be a big ball of ice," said Evan, of the University of Wisconsin.

Most scientists now fear that the massive amount of carbon dioxide humans are pumping into the air will lead to a catastrophic rise in Earth's temperatures, dramatically raising sea levels as glaciers melt and leading to extreme weather worldwide.

Abdussamatov remains contrarian, however, suggesting that the sun holds something quite different in store.

"The solar irradiance began to drop in the 1990s, and a minimum will be reached by approximately 2040," Abdussamatov said. "It will cause a steep cooling of the climate on Earth in 15 to 20 years."

http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news ... ing_2.html

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Postby Gerard » 24 May 2007 01:22

Global warming debunked

Climate change will be considered a joke in five years time, meteorologist Augie Auer told the annual meeting of Mid Canterbury Federated Farmers in Ashburton this week.
Man's contribution to the greenhouse gases was so small we couldn't change the climate if we tried, he maintained.

"We're all going to survive this. It's all going to be a joke in five years," he said.

A combination of misinterpreted and misguided science, media hype, and political spin had created the current hysteria and it was time to put a stop to it.

"It is time to attack the myth of global warming," he said.

Water vapour was responsible for 95 per cent of the greenhouse effect, an effect which was vital to keep the world warm, he explained.

"If we didn't have the greenhouse effect the planet would be at minus 18 deg C but because we do have the greenhouse effect it is plus 15 deg C, all the time."

The other greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrogen dioxide, and various others including CFCs, contributed only five per cent of the effect, carbon dioxide being by far the greatest contributor at 3.6 per cent.

However, carbon dioxide as a result of man's activities was only 3.2 per cent of that, hence only 0.12 per cent of the greenhouse gases in total. Human-related methane, nitrogen dioxide and CFCs etc made similarly minuscule contributions to the effect: 0.066, 0.047 and 0.046 per cent respectively.

"That ought to be the end of the argument, there and then," he said.

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Postby saty » 24 May 2007 01:27

nandy wrote: Calling it a scam or the next apocalypse will only find us unprepared and in a very unpleasant situation.


Allow me to rephrase:: "calling global warming a certain apocalypse is a scam"

:P

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Postby svinayak » 24 May 2007 01:36

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Yo7rmajxxnc

AL GORE: Global Warming Testimony @ Congress 3.21.07
See this to understand how the debate is moving in the future.
There is a plan to rope in religious organizations in the west to move forward.

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Postby svinayak » 24 May 2007 01:39

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CKJ2fu_Gluo

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wY2Uh6TKqnk

The Newt Gingrich -- John Kerry Global Warming Debate
In this debate Newt says that US should take the debate forward only to make sure that it is the leader in the worldwide debate and not let some other country take the leadership. They want a green conservative

They have appointed an Indian origin global climate leader to influence the debate

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Postby nandy » 24 May 2007 02:11

Allow me to rephrase:: "calling global warming a certain apocalypse is a scam"


that we agree upon :)

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Postby Suraj » 29 May 2007 23:33

India Rejects Global Warming Hysteria, Says Kyoto Hurts Economy
India rejects greenhouse gas limits
[quote]

“Legally mandated measures for reducing greenhouse gas emissions are likely to have significant adverse impacts on GDP growth of developing countries, including India,â€

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Postby ramana » 30 May 2007 01:00

Suraj, What is the net impact of this rejection by India to-India and the world?
My brother usd to say in the 70s that all this environmental sutff is a way for the West to keep the developing countries developing.

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Postby Suraj » 30 May 2007 01:25

Well, I've not been tracking the global warming subject and the power sector as much, and there are the respective thread stalwarts in these areas who can weigh in better. From an economic perspective, the growing industrialization will trigger significantly greater energy demands.

Heavy industry is disproportionately energy intensive, and the hallmark of GDP growth last year was the highest industrial growth in over a decade (overall 11.5%, with manufacturing growing 12.5%). This will generate significant pollution going forward, since this level of growth is likely to continue in the medium term.

In that sense, the last fiscal heralded a significant change in the composition of our growth, where services traditionally drove growth. For probably the first time in a very long time, manufacturing was the star, even though as a percentage of overall GDP, services contribute twice as much as the industrial sector. Continuing this trend will imply a significant growth in the rate at which India generates emissions, so that extrapolating current trends will not work.

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Postby nandy » 03 Jun 2007 16:07

As per the estimates from Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, climate related factors would cause India's GDP to decrease by up to 9%. The primary reasons being adverse impacts on agriculture, displacement of people from low lying areas etc. India contributes about 3% of GHG emissions. So depending on what allocation hat you want to wear, 3% of potential impacts on Indian economy will be caused by Indian emissions. IMHO such allocation creates more questions than answers and segragation of india-to-india and world-to-india impacts can be quite misleading. That's just what I think. However, I do agree that it is a moot subject with deep implications for many environmental issues. Furthermore, much of the "environmental stuff" are India's own follies jeopradizing only Indian people's health. Deforestation, soil erosion, water pollution, land degradation, what does the west have to do with any of them?

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Postby Calvin » 03 Jun 2007 21:25

With GWB rewriting the dialog on GW, India will not remain outside this discussion.


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