Mort Walker wrote:Theo_Fidel wrote:It is all accounted for. Maybe at at one time not any more. Things are a lot more efficient now. There is a reason demand growth is crawling even as the population is much more prosperous than 20 years ago. There is also a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and losses to draw on.
Right now India per capita is running about 1,200 kwhr per capita. Just increasing existing thermal to 90% lf and reducing line losses will doube this. Ultimate demand may peak at 4000 kwhr +/- Think about this with my numbers a family of 5 in India will be using about 12000 kwhr per year residential and another 10,000 kwhr per year industrial. That is a lot of power. Even here in wasteful midwest, my personal split is 11,000 kwhr per year PV and 5,500 kwhr per year grid. Family of 6 right now. Plus 2 EV's.
- A/C. Modern high efficiency A/c will not need more than 1 ton to cool a 1200 sqft apartment. About 2000 kwhr / year family of 5. 1/4 time run.
- Modern Refrigerators need less than 400 kwhr per year.
- Washing machines, Water heater, TV, etc. Less than 1000 kwhr per year.
- Space heaters, negligible. Probably run at low demand periods anyway.
- People shouldn't count on village demand. Residential needs in villages are astonishingly small numbers. In the 1980's I did the numbers for GOI where about 5,000 MW of capacity would have covered all the villages in India. Even with double the population.
- the first wild card is industrial demand. World over industry takes a 2/3 share of power. But India seems to be moving into more services. For good reason, we are not resource rich.
- Second wild card is picking up transportation with EV's. Family of 5 needs about 2000 kwhr to go 20,000 km/year India. Per person maybe 400 kwhr.
There is scope for growth. But you should be realistic. There is a lot of uncertainity on what the grid total demand will be long term. My suspicion is that ALL the thermal power India will ever need has already been installed. so why are folks still proposing thermal power? Who knows, cheap money, bad planning, institutional capture, all of the above. There is a term called 'stranded assets' that is doing the rounds.
Keep in mind the family that can afford all these contraptions, first thing they will do is put solar panels on their roof. That will kill 60% to 100% of your grid residential demand. Even here in 'wasteful' midwest every 10th house has a PV system already. In California parts it is already 1 of 3 and per new rules will be 100%. all corporates are already defecting to their own RE power plants, even in India.
Right now the CEA states that there is a deficit of around 1% every month. Of course this doesn’t account for growth. Right now the price of electricity must come down relative to per capital incomes.
Thermal coal cannot compete with natural gas. With the Russian Gazprom deal, should it go through, there will be more gas fired plants. It’s unlikely there will be new coal plants.
1200 sq.ft apartment will need at least 7 ton of ac to cool.