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India's Power Sector

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Rishirishi » 14 May 2017 01:46

disha wrote:^^ Environmental implications to drain the lakes completely twice over? You are better off damming a tidal basin.

You must know that nett pumped-storage hydroelectricity are net consumers of energy! They are profitable by generating and selling power at peak demand. Hence the profitability is in the narrow margin of off-peak vs. peak rates. And this narrow margin must also cover capital costs of setting up the necessary infrastructure.

But again you point to Teri as an example., but Teri is a very high dam and with inflows during monsoon and some more months as upper reaches of himalayas melt snow during summer causing a net positive impact in the sense that the pump up is not a complete cycle (can be half or even quarter cycle).

And all dams are not Teri. Note that Teri was first created as a irrigation, drinking water and HE dam and given its hight., pumped storage is being added as a add-on project. Creating a specialized pumped-energy HE will entail huge capital investment and that will actually throw the cost calculations out of the way.

Put it this way in a energy storage mix., pumped HE is part of a mix and not panacea.


A lot of the hydroelectric dams can be modified to suit PSH. In addition you could have use the GAS power plants already in place as backup. We do not need to have mountain size battries.

Polluting plants like the ones in Delhi can close. It will however take at least 25 years to close all the rest of the plants.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby disha » 14 May 2017 06:51

^^ Sir., please define "Mountain size battery" first.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby JohnTitor » 14 May 2017 15:26

Why doesn't India go with more innovative solutions? Better than pumping millions of gallons of water up a hill, take salt water use excess electricity to make hydrogen - store it, then burn hydrogen to get back water when required. The best part of this is that once burned, the water can then be used for agriculture, pumped to homes etc (after adding some minerals)

Setup costs might be high but the returns will be much higher. It solves 2 problems simultaneously.

Everyone is looking for short term cost-efficiency when thinking longer term has more benefits.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby disha » 15 May 2017 23:01

JohnTitor wrote:Everyone is looking for short term cost-efficiency when thinking longer term has more benefits.


You can as well use aluminum-air (salt water) batteries! Recycle all the aluminum cans!!

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nash » 15 May 2017 23:06


Suraj
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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Suraj » 18 May 2017 01:47

India boosts nuclear power generation as cabinet approves 10 atomic plants
To ramp up nuclear power generation in the country, the Union Cabinet on Wednesday cleared a proposal to build ten indigenous pressurised heavy water reactors.

Each reactor will have the capacity to produce 700 MW of electricity.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby SBajwa » 18 May 2017 20:08

http://www.news.pitt.edu/news/new-study ... mits-india

New Study Shows Solar Power’s Potential and Limits in India

PITTSBURGH—In an effort to improve access to electricity in India, where an estimated 244 million people do not have electricity, a team with Pitt ties looked at how solar microgrids could play a role in increasing energy access — and whether doing so would affect household behaviors. The findings are featured in the latest issue of Science Advances.

Assistant professor in the Department of Political Science Michaël Aklin and a multidisciplinary research team partnered with Indian solar service provider Mera Gao Power (MGP) to conduct a first-of-its-kind analysis of the effects of installing solar microgrids in 81 nonelectrified villages in north-central India. A microgrid is a small, independent electricity network, often powered by renewable sources such as solar or wind.Michaël AklinMichaël Aklin

Initially, the households in the study area — the Barabanki district of the state of Uttar Pradesh — had no electricity and used kerosene lamps to light their homes. The team, which included researchers from the University of Glasgow, Columbia University and New York University, randomly assigned the villages into treatment and control groups. In the treatment group, MGP approached villagers and offered to set up a solar microgrid if at least 10 households within the village subscribed at the monthly per-household cost of 100 rupees ($1.67). MGP made no intervention in the control group.

The solar microgrid offered a basic level of electricity access: domestic lighting through two LED lights and mobile charging capability. Researchers collected information on fuel expenditures, lighting hours, quality of lighting and broader socio-economic effects from 1,281 households surveyed on three occasions over a period of more than a year — prior to treatment, a half a year after treatment and one year after treatment.

Researchers found that while the quality of light increased in electrified households, no evidence suggested that subscribing to MGP had broader socio-economic impacts on household savings, expenditures, local business creation, time spent by women on productive work or children’s use of lighting to study.

“The findings underscore both the potential and limitations of providing minimal electricity access through off-grid solar power,” said Aklin. “It is notable that an inexpensive, business-driven intervention without any state subsidies can have such a positive effect on the quality of lighting in previously nonelectrified villages. Because MGP offers electricity at night, the service serves households at hours when demand peaks and electricity access is generally the weakest.”

Patrick Bayer, another member of the research team who is from the University of Glasgow in Scotland said, “At the same time, the lack of broader effects, aside from better lighting and lower kerosene expenditures, underscores the limits of minimal solar microgrids. Electrification programs that rely on off-grid technologies must consider the trade-offs between the complexity, the costs and the benefits of these systems. Our findings do not imply that larger systems cannot produce broader socio-economic benefits, but generating such benefits may require more expensive solutions.”

Funding for the study was provided by the India Central Programme of the International Growth Centre, the Tata Center for Technology and Design at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Smart Power India.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby PratikDas » 18 May 2017 22:47

SBajwa wrote:http://www.news.pitt.edu/news/new-study-shows-solar-power-s-potential-and-limits-india

New Study Shows Solar Power’s Potential and Limits in India

PITTSBURGH—In an effort to improve access to electricity in India, where an estimated 244 million people do not have electricity, a team with Pitt ties looked at how solar microgrids could play a role in increasing energy access — and whether doing so would affect household behaviors. The findings are featured in the latest issue of Science Advances.


Piyush Goyal ji via Doordarshan on Twitter:

Image

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby uddu » 20 May 2017 19:30


The advances happening is pretty big.

One more interesting thing to note is this Full charge in 5 minutes. The same company has demonstrated charging a mobile phone to full charge in 30s. This could be an area of collaboration with Israel.


Seeing the kind of progress that's happening in the electric vehicle industry with the battery charging faster, more energy density providing longer range and getting cheaper, the govt must brace for EV taking off in India in a big way before 2030. This could even happen by 2023-24.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby pandyan » 28 May 2017 18:22

How do they plan for general degradation and efficiency reduction of solar panels as they age. Any idea on how often panels need replacement?

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Jun 2017 19:13

A story on India's nuclear power:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... lear-power
The bottom line: Modi wants to bolster his green credentials by doubling India’s nuclear power capacity.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Jun 2017 19:15

pandyan wrote:How do they plan for general degradation and efficiency reduction of solar panels as they age. Any idea on how often panels need replacement?


http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge ... Panel.aspx

Photovoltaic (PV) modules typically come with 20 year warranties that guarantee that the panels will produce at least 80% of the rated power after 20 years of use. The general rule of thumb is that panels will degrade by about 1% each year. Is that rule accurate?

Degradation Rates

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) performed a meta-analysis of studies that examined the long term degradation rates of various PV panels. They found that the 1% per year rule was somewhat pessimistic for panels made prior to the year 2000, and today’s panels, with better technology and improved manufacturing techniques, have even more stamina than their predecessors. For monocrystalline silicon, the most commonly used panel for commercial and residential PV, the degradation rate is less than 0.5% for panels made before 2000, and less than 0.4% for panels made after 2000. That means that a panel manufactured today should produce 92% of its original power after 20 years, quite a bit higher than the 80% estimated by the 1% rule.


More info here:
http://energyinformative.org/lifespan-solar-panels/

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 11 Jun 2017 18:09

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-the-dark

India is scaling back expectations for power demand growth as it struggles to electrify millions of homes despite a glut in generation capacity.


The world’s second-most populous nation is building more power plants than it can utilize as state-level distributors struggle to connect 50 million households, according to Ravindra Kumar Verma, head of the Central Electricity Authority, the power ministry’s planning arm. As a result, about 25 gigawatts of coal-fired power-generating capacity is “stranded” and unused, he said. That’s equivalent to the entire installed capacity of neighboring Pakistan

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 11 Jun 2017 23:53

pandyan wrote:How do they plan for general degradation and efficiency reduction of solar panels as they age. Any idea on how often panels need replacement?


A-Gupta already answered your question on performance of the cell itself.
------------------------------

40 years for the over all facility would be my best bet. More likely the electrical equipment, from inverters to tranformers will need replacing first by 10 years +/-.

But, this is not how you should look at wind & solar. These are fully scale-able technologies, meaning you can go from 1 unit to thousands and millions without dealing with marginal costs. This is true during operations as well. All solar power plants are over powered. Meaning a 12 MW panel rating will be matched to a 10 MW inverter rating. It costs essentially nothing to do this. In the early years the inverter's will 'clip' the excess power, as the efficiency declines the panels will nomalize.

Solar and wind farms on the whole never go down. A string or two may fail or a turbine or 2 may go down but on the large scale these are mere blips. someone goes out and fixes the string or turbine that is down and the impact to the facility is not even noticed. If you look at the supply graphs, you will never see any outage days, ever. You never hear such reports in the news even though such outages are normal for other power plants. The only variation is seasonal and daily depending on the source which is quite predictable now, hours and days in advance.

There are still 50 year old ARCO solar cells installed in the 1970's @ USA weather stations and communications tower that are still functioning as I have personally witnessed. Back when the efficiency was 50 watts/m2. The main failure was with the plastic back sheet and abrasion of the glass surface. But even at full abrasion the cell itself is still performing, just at lower efficiency.

Most likely however, as the panel efficiency improves the logic for replacing the panels will come into play. At Charanka,GJ the 100 watt (CdTE) and the 230 watt (CSi) panels are seriously outdated. In modern facilities, 180 watt (CdTe) and 350 watt (CSi) panels are quite normal. So re-powering would increase the capacity of these facilities by 50%-60%, though it won't be cheap. I'm sure someone is running the numbers every month though and when it makes sense, it will be done. My guess is somewhere in the next 5 years. The panels themselves may have another 25 years of life left in them, do you recycle them or install elsewhere considering the expense? My suspicion is we will recycle them. Not worth the effort, new panels are too cheap.
-----------------------

The main transmission link is the one single point of failure. This has occasionally caused problems, enough that most western countries now maintain a back-up redundant transmission link. This is not true yet of India however, India remains single link and the utilities do not sign first priority contracts, so the renewable folks get pushed off the transmission grid, if say a coal plants needs priority. At some point this will have to be changed.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby srin » 12 Jun 2017 19:03

Looking at the sheer amount of glass being used in AC-cooled offices (and apartments), and the amount of sticky reflective/absorbent film used to cover it, what wouldn't I give for a transparent solar panel that is either glass-like or can be stuck as film on glass !
Still not forgetting the ISRO solar-panel-on-Omni contraption, I can imagine covering the roof of my car and windows with my yet-to-be-conceived solar-panel-as-sticky-film thingy...

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Katare » 13 Jun 2017 22:40

Sticky film thinggy is not the problem but transparency is impossible because you can either eat the cake or keep it.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Jun 2017 19:21

A_Gupta wrote:https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-06-09/india-power-plants-stranded-as-50-million-homes-left-in-the-dark

India is scaling back expectations for power demand growth as it struggles to electrify millions of homes despite a glut in generation capacity.


The world’s second-most populous nation is building more power plants than it can utilize as state-level distributors struggle to connect 50 million households, according to Ravindra Kumar Verma, head of the Central Electricity Authority, the power ministry’s planning arm. As a result, about 25 gigawatts of coal-fired power-generating capacity is “stranded” and unused, he said. That’s equivalent to the entire installed capacity of neighboring Pakistan


This is because power is too expensive in India for both commercial and residential users. Power prices must come down before demand will increase significantly.

Power must be used for cold storage to prevent food spoilage and for water pumping for agriculture. This will have significant impact on the economy. Clean water becomes possible with lots of power.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 17 Jun 2017 20:41

Mort Walker wrote:This is because power is too expensive in India for both commercial and residential users. Power prices must come down before demand will increase significantly.


I don't think so. Retail Power prices for residential consumer in India is very very low.

Lowest in the world for large industrialized country last time I looked. My India power bill works out, after averaging the slabs, to just over Rs 3.50 in TN. About 6 cents/kw, not entirely fair, I know but lets go with it.This is cheaper than China. And way way cheaper than USA or EU. Germany is 42 cents a kw (gulp). One of the Tenant families here uses just 200 kw/pm and their bill works out to about 1 rs/kw. or less than 2 cents. My neighbor runs a printing press with 12 kw connected commercial load. And he pays about Rs10/kw. This is a bit high, about 16 cents/kw but not excessively so. BTW this is higher than most of China for commercial power which runs about 8-10cents/kw.

That said, World over the structure is that the more power you consume the cheaper it becomes. In India it is the exact opposite. A legacy of the Permit Raj days. And out commercial folks are forced to subsidize residential.

Residential demand growth is always linear as it is tied to the discretionary spending ability of the consumer. Majority of demand has to come from Industry. This is where demand is missing. India car/vehicle production 2011 ~ 3 million, India car/vehicle production 2016 ~ 4 million. India 2011 Steel consumption 2011 - 67 million tons, Steel Consumption 2016 - 76 million tons. I think it is self explanatory.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 18 Jun 2017 01:50

When adjusted for per capita incomes it is very high in India. For TN the rate of Rs. 3.5/KwHr (unit) is low as the rest of India pays over Rs. 6/unit. In the US we pay about 8 cents/KwHr.

Residential power consumption comes mostly from air conditioning. Industrial and commercial power use will be the driving factor behind lowering prices and increased production. It is too high.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Jun 2017 03:08

Price is already below cost of production. How much lower do you want it to go?

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 18 Jun 2017 03:53

The price is not below production cost, but the distribution cost is high. Industrial price of electricity should be no more than Rs. 1/unit if we want to get to a $10T economy. Really it should be no more than 70-80 paise per unit.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 18 Jun 2017 03:55

Surajsan,

We really need an economics of energy thread. Something that covers transportation energy and electrical power production.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 18 Jun 2017 09:10

Hmmm! As far as I know no one in the world has gone that low. For a brief moment rural China residential was @ 5 cents/kw. But they quickly raised it.

Right now the cheapest wholesale power available in India, other than Solar, is from NTPC legacy coal.

http://www.deccanchronicle.com/business ... 2unit.html

In the bidding for the solar park, the tariff dipped to a record low of Rs 2.62 per unit.

This price is even lower than NTPC’s average coal-based power tariff of Rs 3.20 per unit.


And this is before transmission. So not sure where you are getting the info that it is cheaper.

I think cheap power for industry can easily run into the same problems of free agriculture power. People steal it and load shedding becomes order of day. SEB's go belly up and need SG bail out.

AFAIK no industry has really complained too loudly about their power rates. It is a relatively small chunk of the budget.There have been complaints when it is not available at any price. AKA load shedding.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Suraj » 18 Jun 2017 09:30

Mort Walker wrote:Surajsan,

We really need an economics of energy thread. Something that covers transportation energy and electrical power production.

Just use this thread . If you can build a sufficiently focused discussion it will get its own thread :)

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby JohnTitor » 18 Jun 2017 10:10

Katare wrote:Sticky film thinggy is not the problem but transparency is impossible because you can either eat the cake or keep it.

Not really. It will be opaque only to infra red. Visual spectrum can still pass through.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 18 Jun 2017 18:46

As of the last few years there has been all sorts of tariff bidding in not just solar but even thermal. The idea is to win the contract then ask for a new tariff citing production costs. I suspect for solar these tarrifs are with sub standard Chinese PV panels which will need replacement in 3-5 years after installation due to drop in efficiency.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby SaraLax » 18 Jun 2017 19:24

Mort Walker wrote:When adjusted for per capita incomes it is very high in India. For TN the rate of Rs. 3.5/KwHr (unit) is low as the rest of India pays over Rs. 6/unit. In the US we pay about 8 cents/KwHr.

Residential power consumption comes mostly from air conditioning. Industrial and commercial power use will be the driving factor behind lowering prices and increased production. It is too high.


Currently in TN, the residential electricity billing rate that is charged on a bi-monthly basis is as follows :-

Consumption(units)-----Rate (paise)
0-200-----------------------350
201-500--------------------460
above 500-----------------660

*- First 100 units of consumption are free for every residential consumer of low tension power supply.

For a 4 member middle class family like mine that is based in Chennai - we pay anywhere between INR 790 (360 units consumed during winter i.e around December month) and ~ INR 4000 (800 units during summer periods).

For High Tension consumers in TN like Industries, IT Companies, Govt & Govt aided institutions, Pvt Educational institutes and etc - the billing rate is 635 paise per unit.

PDF at this TANGEDCO Link provides all billing rates in a single page.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby disha » 18 Jun 2017 20:32

If 1 unit is 1KWH., then the above rates indicate that rates are very very cheap in India.

In summer., I pay 16c/KWH going all the way up to 44c/KWH

It is the DISCOMs which carry huge distribution cost., due to stealing of electricity., several places commercial establishments bribe the officials to give electricity at residential rates.

To note., the cost of petrol is same as anywhere else in world., ppl will find switching to EVs will actually save them money - their total energy bill will be reduced to 1/3rd

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Jun 2017 01:51

Yes, 1 unit = 1 KwHr.

Per capita income in TN is around Rs. 160,000. If power is Rs. 3.5/unit, then it is STILL expensive. If you use 360 units a month, that's over Rs. 15,000/year. Nearly 10% of per capita income for just power. The rest of India is quite high. Central India and northern India, the rates start at Rs. 6/unit and in NCR they are nearly Rs. 7.5/unit.

Remember, if we're comparing power rates with the rest of the world, then we also have to compare per capita incomes too. Else it is not a valid comparison. In the US, it is very unusual to be paying 44c/KwHr even during the summer months, but the US is different as commercial and industrial users pay much less than residential. Most power in the US is now coming from natural gas over 40% and coal 25%. In India coal still accounts for over 60% of power production.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby disha » 19 Jun 2017 12:09

Mort Walker wrote:Yes, 1 unit = 1 KwHr.

Per capita income in TN is around Rs. 160,000. If power is Rs. 3.5/unit, then it is STILL expensive. If you use 360 units a month, that's over Rs. 15,000/year. Nearly 10% of per capita income for just power.


Let's peg to TN and we go from there.

At 360 units & 3.5 Rs/Unit per month., we are calculating Rs. 1260 p/m = 18 $ (at 70 Rs. to 1 USD rate). Similarly in US., it will come to 16c/KwH = 16x360 = 57.60 $. That is the rate is 3x.

Now here is the rub., the average cost throughout the state was 15.6c/KwH (2016) and the average consumption was 570 KwH per month. Bringing the average bill to @90 $ per month, which is 5x than the avg. of TN.

At income of Rs. 160,000., in USD it is 2250 $ per month or 27,000 USD per annum per capita in TN. The per capita in CA is @ 57,000 USD per annum. Note the difference in per capita is @2x.

In India even by per-capita estimates., you are paying 3x or 5x lower than a state with 2x higher per capita.

I do not think there is a room for complain. I am using your own figures to arrive at the above and comparing to a state with highest per capita. Here is the table for electricity rates https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a & here is the link of BEA.gov https://www.bea.gov/regional/bearfacts/pdf.cfm?fips=06000&areatype=STATE&geotype=3

Further., in 2017., the avg. cost is 18c/KwH. Point is per capita of CA is NOT 5x of TN (it is @2x) but they do pay 5x the price for electricity. And 3x in terms of electricity rates.

Your per capita theory is not just holding true., it has been decimated.

<begin rant>
In other words., the Indian consumer does complain too much and TBH are rotten spoilt to the core. For the Indian., stealing power is a birth right. Not paying bills is a birth right. Getting free electricity is a birth right (check out Delhi Govt. promise on electricity bill). And then demand for world class infrastructure at venezuela prices is also a birthright.
<end rant>
Last edited by disha on 19 Jun 2017 23:50, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 19 Jun 2017 22:44

Mort Walker wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:As of the last few years there has been all sorts of tariff bidding in not just solar but even thermal. The idea is to win the contract then ask for a new tariff citing production costs. I suspect for solar these tarrifs are with sub standard Chinese PV panels which will need replacement in 3-5 years after installation due to drop in efficiency.


Saar,

I don’t know where you hear this, but this is not true at all. There are simply no such reports of premature panel failure anywhere in the pipeline on any continent. If there are any, they are very isolated so far considering China puts out ~ 1 Billion solar panels per year. There have been problems with the electrical connection and inverter, overheating, contamination @ contacts, animal damage, etc.

All solar projects these days under-rate their inverters. Meaning even with decline of efficiency there is no change to the name-plate capacity, 20 years from now. A 340 watt panel is matched up to a 250 watt inverter for instance.

About 30% of the Charanka GJ project was installed with Chinese CSi panel. About 6-7 years old now. There are literally zero reports of premature panel failures. The load factors don’t even show any variations to this day.
-----------

Also in the Solar/Wind arena there have been very very few claims for increased tariff so far. There is no fuel cost so contracts are 20 years typical. I know of only 1 case where a wind contract number had to be renegotiated because the utility and the developer had a 15 paise per kw dispute based on ambiguous contract wording. The main demand is the off take be maintained. Curtailment of off take (Transmission related) and prompted payment have both been issues.
-----------------------

WRT the bids, I don't disagree with your comment. This is how capitalism operates. Fellows who are unable to execute project will lose jatti-bannian-chappal and have to leave everything behind in avammanam. Fellows who can execute will take over the project. I know of only 2 projects that have suffered cost over-runs and bankrupted the developers. Both were quickly snapped up by others. Most of these bids are pre-selected bidders and folks who have operational projects. There has been no great wave of bankrupt solar developers or failure to execute like folks keep warning about.

Given a chance Indians are perfectly capable of executing these projects. It is a shame their own countrymen doubt them too often. So what if they fail, let them get back up and try again. In this arena greed is good, claws need to be sharp and a taste for red blood and cannibalism is to be encouraged....

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Jun 2017 00:00

Disha,

Per capita incomes is per year not per month. Rs. 160,000 per year is TN per capita income. That is an annual income of $2400 per year at current exchange rates. Power prices start at Rs. 3.5/unit or $0.05/unit in TN. The rest of India that holds the bulk of population in the north pays at least Rs. 6/unit that has a per capita income of Rs. 145,000 per year.

It is too expensive. Per capita incomes in India are nearly 20x less than the US.

Theo,

I did not say failure of PVs, but rather substandard where efficiency of the PV would drop from significantly.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby disha » 20 Jun 2017 00:20

Mort'j., thanks for the correction. Let's not bring rest of India particularly the North and the NE (not West like Mah or Guj) where T & D losses are huge and largely unaccounted that skews the rates.

So for TN to CA comparison the per-capita difference is 25x while the rate differential is 5x., in other words the burden of electrical energy is 5x for an TN'vasi compared to a CA'vasi.

Here is the goal for TN (and other states lk Guj and Mah)., components for end-user usage of electricity is production, transmission and distribution and it is the T & D which is contributing to the most cost. In other words., the states can actually invest in processes to reduce the T & D losses., maybe invest in smart-grid with grid-tied solar panels. Each apartment complex can be mandated to add enough solar panels that the peak power usage during day time is reduced. Since the T & D loss for such captive generation is "zero"., the burden of energy will come down rapidly.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 20 Jun 2017 00:46

Mort Walker wrote:Theo,

I did not say failure of PVs, but rather substandard where efficiency of the PV would drop from significantly.


Again there is no sign this has occurred. Can you point me where you got that data from. I track this stuff and and would appreciate it.

For your reference the industry standard right now is 3% first year 1% loss in cell efficiency per year. Or about 22% over 20 years. The real world performance has been less than 0.5% per year.

BTW in the industry a loss of efficiency below rating curves is considered failure and manufacturer would have to replace. Any substandard performance is considered a failure.
Last edited by Theo_Fidel on 20 Jun 2017 01:24, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby srinebula » 20 Jun 2017 00:49

Sorry if this is wrong thread.
Craig's team had been working on this for a while now. They claim a breakthrough in making bio-fuels through genetic engineering:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/matthewher ... 48cd012269

I think it would be good if India starts investing in these technologies.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 20 Jun 2017 01:15

^^^^
Right now no. On efficiency basis. Don't waste your time.

Photosynthesis is way less efficient than CSi solar. On the order of 0.5% to 1% vs 22% and rising for CSi. Unless this changes these technologies are doomed on efficiency basis. There may be other reasons to this however, say for storage or removing CO2. But that is long ways away.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Jun 2017 01:18

Dishaji,

We cannot exclude the north where losses are high because even there theft has been significantly reduced in the last few years, but power prices have also risen.

The correct comparison should be UP to CA if we go on population level. If we go by state GDP, then we should compare NCR to CA. Both UP and NCR have higher power rates than TN.

Power prices in India are too high if we wish to get to a $10T GDP by 2030. We need 70-80 paise per unit power.

Theo,

This was told to me by a fellow doing work on PVs. I too am interested in this and have contacted my local power cooperative about PVs they've recently installed here in the SW. By the way, my summer time rates are less than $0.10/KwHr.
Last edited by Mort Walker on 20 Jun 2017 01:32, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Jun 2017 01:31

Theo_Fidel wrote:^^^^
Right now no. On efficiency basis. Don't waste your time.

Photosynthesis is way less efficient than CSi solar. On the order of 0.5% to 1% vs 22% and rising for CSi. Unless this changes these technologies are doomed on efficiency basis. There may be other reasons to this however, say for storage or removing CO2. But that is long ways away.


He's talking about fuels for combustion engine and not power. Transportation energy not electric power.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 20 Jun 2017 01:45

Hi Mort,

Yah! Which is why I said maybe storage. Which is what leads to transportation.
But at such low efficiency it will never make sense.

I did the math once here on BRF. And just the land demands were simply outrageous.
The yield did not even exceed pumping costs of moving the algae. IIRC.
--------------------

BTW I wish Guru Prabha, Where is he? would come back.

10 years ago he and I had several spirited discussions on the future of energy. His own preference was for Nuclear power, we would do simple back of napkin exercises to show what was possible and what was not.

The conclusion was that it would come down to solar(CSi)+Wind vs Nuclear. And Nuclear would have to stay below 5 cents a kw whole sale to compete. It was the first time I realized that the long term trend for commoditized solar & wind was 2 cents/kw, based on ultimate material cost. Solar/Wind is caught up in the global commoditized manufacturing process, less for wind. Historically nothing has stood before this process. Note that smart phone in your hand or the flat screen TV on your wall, and the staggering cost declines. It is not an accident that a solar panel has the same shape and form factor as your smart phone. If you don’t have a realistic plan to get below 2 cents/kw it is a waste of time.

Ethanol, which is a Corn C4 higher efficiency photosynthetic process worked out to about 50 cents/kw, ultimate of 40 cents/kw as liquid fuel. Maybe higher as fuel cell. Still a waste of time IMHO …

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Jun 2017 02:43

Theo,

The problem with wind and solar is the storage issue. Natural gas + nuclear should establish the base load and solar + wind should handle peak loads. I'm opposed to biofuels that take up arable land and clean water. In India we need both and can't afford that.


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