India's Power Sector

The Technology & Economic Forum is a venue to discuss issues pertaining to Technological and Economic developments in India. We request members to kindly stay within the mandate of this forum and keep their exchanges of views, on a civilised level, however vehemently any disagreement may be felt. All feedback regarding forum usage may be sent to the moderators using the Feedback Form or by clicking the Report Post Icon in any objectionable post for proper action. Please note that the views expressed by the Members and Moderators on these discussion boards are that of the individuals only and do not reflect the official policy or view of the Bharat-Rakshak.com Website. Copyright Violation is strictly prohibited and may result in revocation of your posting rights - please read the FAQ for full details. Users must also abide by the Forum Guidelines at all times.
Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6964
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Jun 2018 07:58

Neshant wrote:Best idea is to simply pass on the cost of electricity production to consumers.
By doing so, the free market has an incentive to find the best solution that reduces cost.
That could be anything from insulating homes better to more efficient compressors to using different materials in home construction to doing nothing and paying higher prices for electricity and deploying those financial resources more profitably elsewhere.

That's the beauty of the free market.
Anytime govt bureaucrat, bankers, other people sitting up top impose a solution or "manage" peoples' earnings, the solution is almost always sub-optimal and in many cases destructive to productivity.


I agree, but there is no reason why energy efficient compressors cannot be mandated. In 30 years with new material science, we will find more efficient ways to exchange heat.

JohnTitor
BRFite
Posts: 1343
Joined: 11 Aug 2016 06:14

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby JohnTitor » 24 Jun 2018 17:50

Neshant, power is not cheap in India. In fact, even compared to the UK, you pay a lot more for the same amount of power consumed. And that's saying something! (I'm talking PPP of course)

Supratik
BRF Oldie
Posts: 5569
Joined: 09 Nov 2005 10:21
Location: USA

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Supratik » 25 Jun 2018 23:13


nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 816
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nandakumar » 04 Jul 2018 16:34

A website for news and commentary dedicated to petroleum sector has a section dealing with discussion among forum members. I chanced upon one such discussion on electrical grid management. One poster claimed that the UK National grid has 2800 mw of pumped storage capacity of hydro electric which can ramp up in 2 minutes flat to 100% of its capacity should demand spike all of a sudden. I know Theo Fidel on this forum has been a constant votary of this form of stored energy of renewables rather than batteries. Never really thought there was much scope for that. But if the claim about UK is true it opens up a line of thought. Would knowledgeable members comment on it?
Thanks.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1015
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Rishirishi » 05 Jul 2018 04:16

nandakumar wrote:A website for news and commentary dedicated to petroleum sector has a section dealing with discussion among forum members. I chanced upon one such discussion on electrical grid management. One poster claimed that the UK National grid has 2800 mw of pumped storage capacity of hydro electric which can ramp up in 2 minutes flat to 100% of its capacity should demand spike all of a sudden. I know Theo Fidel on this forum has been a constant votary of this form of stored energy of renewables rather than batteries. Never really thought there was much scope for that. But if the claim about UK is true it opens up a line of thought. Would knowledgeable members comment on it?
Thanks.


Pumped storage.
Loss of energy is about 15% (pumping up and down). Idea is that you pump up water during the night when you have an overflow of electricity (thermal and nuclear run at constant). It is in use in Norway, where they purchase the electricity for almost nothing during the night and sell it at a huge margin during the day.

India has 45 000 Mwh installed hydro electric power. But this can be multiplied many times if the they want to use pumped storage. The same water will be going up and down. one only needs to create huge storage tanks at the bottom. Solar power together with pumped storage can provide a viable total solution.

Total potential for hydro power in India is estimated to 145 000 Mwh. The dream senario would be to have solar and wind generating the energy and using the hydro dams to balance the shortcomings.

As of now coal can only compete if the thermal plant is written off and near the coal mine. It is only a matter of time before all coal plants will be shut down.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 05 Jul 2018 07:00

Rishirishi wrote:As of now coal can only compete if the thermal plant is written off and near the coal mine. It is only a matter of time before all coal plants will be shut down.

This is true for most of the developed world where demand is flat. But not in India. If we can sustain strong 8+% economic growth for several years, our demand will increase dramatically just like China's as more and more people are able to afford air conditioners and other appliances as well as every single village finally getting connected to the grid. Even in the ones which are connected now a huge number of homes don't have electricity. This will change as rural incomes increase and people can afford the electricity. Demand is going to shoot up unless the next government messes things up badly and growth falls off like it did during UPA II period. Coal isn't going away anytime soon.

nandakumar
BRFite
Posts: 816
Joined: 10 May 2010 13:37

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nandakumar » 05 Jul 2018 11:27

India's hydro electric projects are almost invariably linked to irrigation needs. Does that not pose a constraint in expanding pumped storage facilities? Also there is the aspect of submergence of land at the plains to create a pond for storing water before being pumped up. Land acquisition could be an issue as well.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 05 Jul 2018 23:17

Nachiket/Rishi,

We may be closer to the peak than most folks suspect.
We did the numbers here on BRF many years ago.

To get close to First World living. Yes, including A/C for all and maybe even electric cars.
Carefully with maximum efficiency, the thought was that India could do it with per capita consumption of 4,000-5,000 kwhr / year. Minimal winter heat need, USA is wildly wasteful @ 12,000 kwhr / year per capita, etc. China is somewhere around 4,000 kwhr right now, and is largely A/C-fied. Right now India Per Capita Consumption is about 1,200 kwhr/year

So a tripling of consumption would do it, Maybe a quadrupling in the long term, out to 2100.

The thought was about 700,000 GW thermal equivalent would do, even with population growth. As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc. We already have ~ 350,000MW of Thermal, w/ large T/D losses and abysmal 50% type capacity factors. We need about 1,000,000 MW of RE to match it. The present target of 225,000 MW of RE by 2022 is about ¼ of what we need. About 3 Million acres of desert/wasteland. If we keep up the present pace, the whole thing will be over by 2035 and we move into maintenance, tweaking mode.

Personally I suspect we have a lot more time than 2035 to get this done. I also suspect long term we will not keep more than 200,000 MW Thermal capacity. What happens to the other 150,000 MW Thermal and the 50,000 MW under construction/planning. Another good question. Even the bankers are getting nervous for a good reason. Folks within GOI know which way this is going and have dropped heavy hints recently. We will see.

For reference solar bids have again fallen to Rs 2.44 / kwhr. Sub Rs 2 / kwhr pricing is coming, even if the industry is not ready for it. Long term it will get to Rs 1 and stay there once these plants are amortized. I don't know any thermal that can compete at that point.

chetak
BRF Oldie
Posts: 17650
Joined: 16 May 2008 12:00

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby chetak » 06 Jul 2018 21:09

take a look at what the chinese are doing and we are still mired in the land acquisition bill and its fallout.


twitter


More photovoltaic power plants are built on barren mountains in N China's Shanxi to help locals increase incomes

Image
Image
Image
Image

rsingh
BRF Oldie
Posts: 3319
Joined: 19 Jan 2005 01:05
Location: Pindi
Contact:

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby rsingh » 06 Jul 2018 21:18

Theo_Fidel wrote:Nachiket/Rishi,

We may be closer to the peak than most folks suspect.
We did the numbers here on BRF many years ago.

To get close to First World living. Yes, including A/C for all and maybe even electric cars.
Carefully with maximum efficiency, the thought was that India could do it with per capita consumption of 4,000-5,000 kwhr / year. Minimal winter heat need, USA is wildly wasteful @ 12,000 kwhr / year per capita, etc. China is somewhere around 4,000 kwhr right now, and is largely A/C-fied. Right now India Per Capita Consumption is about 1,200 kwhr/year

So a tripling of consumption would do it, Maybe a quadrupling in the long term, out to 2100.

The thought was about 700,000 GW thermal equivalent would do, even with population growth. As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc. We already have ~ 350,000MW of Thermal, w/ large T/D losses and abysmal 50% type capacity factors. We need about 1,000,000 MW of RE to match it. The present target of 225,000 MW of RE by 2022 is about ¼ of what we need. About 3 Million acres of desert/wasteland. If we keep up the present pace, the whole thing will be over by 2035 and we move into maintenance, tweaking mode.

Personally I suspect we have a lot more time than 2035 to get this done. I also suspect long term we will not keep more than 200,000 MW Thermal capacity. What happens to the other 150,000 MW Thermal and the 50,000 MW under construction/planning. Another good question. Even the bankers are getting nervous for a good reason. Folks within GOI know which way this is going and have dropped heavy hints recently. We will see.

For reference solar bids have again fallen to Rs 2.44 / kwhr. Sub Rs 2 / kwhr pricing is coming, even if the industry is not ready for it. Long term it will get to Rs 1 and stay there once these plants are amortized. I don't know any thermal that can compete at that point.

what makes you to come to such conclusions?

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2294
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Katare » 07 Jul 2018 10:26

I think we should provide as much power as Indian citizens want, with nobupper limit.

guru.shetty
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 45
Joined: 28 Oct 2016 07:29

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby guru.shetty » 08 Jul 2018 01:28

If you are not competitive in solar manufacturing, you should not attempt it: Amitabh Kant

What is being done to boost domestic solar manufacturing capabilities. Most of the domestic players especially the solar players are into assembling.

I am not a great believer in protectionism. I am a believer in globalisation and a believer in India being an integral part of the global supply chain. Either you are competitive or not competitive. If you are not competitive, do not try and manufacture something (in an area) where you are not going to be competitive. You may be competitive in hundred other things but if you are not competitive in solar manufacturing with the entire back-end, right till the back-end, do not attempt that, and rather get into an area where you will be globally competitive. And if you want to be competitive then make sure that you do it in size and scale. If you miss that then get into an area where you can be a global champion, like we are in compact car manufacturing. You need not necessarily be a global champion in every area of manufacturing.

https://energy.economictimes.indiatimes ... t/64892816

arvin
BRFite
Posts: 173
Joined: 17 Aug 2016 21:26

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby arvin » 08 Jul 2018 08:01

Jaithapur Nuclear power plant on track.

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/in ... 750548.cms

French utility EDF and General Electric have signed a pact to jointly build six reactors for India’s most ambitious nuclear power plant at Jaitapur in Maharashtra, the two companies said in a statement.

State run-Nuclear Power Corporation of India is building a 9,900 megawatt (mw) plant at Jaitapur, which upon completion would be the world’s largest nuclear power unit.


https://swarajyamag.com/infrastructure/ ... ght-of-day

However, EDF is not the only company to be involved in this project. According to a report, Assystem, Egis, Reliance and Bouygues are the four companies that could be involved in installation of an engineering platform for Jaitapur. In addition, Larsen and Toubro, AFCEN and Bureau Veritas of France would provide a training centre for design and construction standards that need to be kept in mind during the manufacturing of equipment crucial to the JNPP.


GE is supplying the reactors sInce Areva has gone into bankruptcy.
India is targeting 22 GW of nuclear power by 2032 and this plant alone will meet half the target whenever it goes online. Kudankulam and Jaithapur
are the only foreign reactors in the mix with rest of the target being met from Indian 700 MW PWHR planned for Haryana, Madhya pradesh and Rajasthan.

That 22GW number I got from this website. Looks like an underestimation or mis-reporting. Since Kundankulam (7.5) and Jaithapur (10) alone will contribute 18 GW.

suryag
Forum Moderator
Posts: 3147
Joined: 11 Jan 2009 00:14

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby suryag » 08 Jul 2018 09:02

Learned beepul one thing that I never understood is if we are able to build 700 MW reactors why not proliferate them instead of buying from elsewhere ? Is it the fuel guarantee thing or shivalik syndrome or something else here at play ?

pankajs
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10431
Joined: 13 Aug 2009 20:56

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby pankajs » 08 Jul 2018 16:21

Note the line after the Top header

https://www.bloomberg.com/amp/view/arti ... -in-energy
Storage Will Be Energy’s Next Big Thing

Image

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6964
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 08 Jul 2018 22:04

suryag wrote:Learned beepul one thing that I never understood is if we are able to build 700 MW reactors why not proliferate them instead of buying from elsewhere ? Is it the fuel guarantee thing or shivalik syndrome or something else here at play ?


One reason is that the capital cost upfront is very high even though lifetime costs are low. This cost has to be paid by GoI. Private players can get into price agreements on power, but they pay upfron capital. Nuclear has very high energy density. Nuclear plant load efficiencies are greater than 90% and produces much more energy. A 700MW plant actually produces over 600MW. A 100MW solar plant actually produces less than 20MW.

The base power load should be nuclear and peak power demand should come from solar.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2294
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Katare » 09 Jul 2018 07:47

Fuel! Imported reactors come with assured fuel supplies for entire life of the reactor.

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2333
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby JTull » 09 Jul 2018 13:48

Mort Walker wrote:
suryag wrote:Learned beepul one thing that I never understood is if we are able to build 700 MW reactors why not proliferate them instead of buying from elsewhere ? Is it the fuel guarantee thing or shivalik syndrome or something else here at play ?


One reason is that the capital cost upfront is very high even though lifetime costs are low. This cost has to be paid by GoI. Private players can get into price agreements on power, but they pay upfron capital. Nuclear has very high energy density. Nuclear plant load efficiencies are greater than 90% and produces much more energy. A 700MW plant actually produces over 600MW. A 100MW solar plant actually produces less than 20MW.

The base power load should be nuclear and peak power demand should come from solar.


You're mixing capacity factors with thermal efficiency. CANDU type PHWR reactors which form the bulk of power reactors in India have about 32-33% thermal efficiency at best. A 700MWe reactor probably produces about 2100 MWt. In India capacity factors above 100% have also been achieved by older reactors simply by upgrading equipment.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Jul 2018 02:05

As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc.
rsingh wrote:what makes you to come to such conclusions?


It tends to move that way. We will see.

Image

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 10 Jul 2018 02:27

Theo_Fidel wrote: As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc.
rsingh wrote:what makes you to come to such conclusions?


It tends to move that way. We will see.


Actually your charts seem to bear out what I was saying. Look at China's graph and the increase in electricity usage there. We are 15-20 years behind them in per capita GDP. Our graph has a long way to go up before it starts dipping. Even the Chinese one hasn't started dipping yet and their population is aging far more rapidly than ours thanks to the one-child policy.

The graphs of developed countries really have no bearing on us.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Jul 2018 02:30

nachiket wrote:Actually your charts seem to bear out what I was saying. Look at China's graph and the increase in electricity usage there. We are 15-20 years behind them in per capita GDP. Our graph has a long way to go up before it starts dipping. Even the Chinese one hasn't started dipping yet and their population is aging far more rapidly than ours thanks to the one-child policy.


We will see. I suspect we won't see 8% type growth. Instead 2%-3% type growth till 2040 to 2050, then some version of that curve downward. The peak is not unimaginably far away as folks tend to think in India. Fairly close on per capita terms. keep in mind India has also increased consumption 50% since 2015. A lot of tropical countries have topped out at 2,000 kwhr per year.

One note, rural areas residential will account for a 2%-3% increase in demand. Total. Most demand is elsewhere.

A_Gupta
BRF Oldie
Posts: 10621
Joined: 23 Oct 2001 11:31
Contact:

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 10 Jul 2018 16:40

Bloomberg reports:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... n-distress
The decline in coal imports by India’s power plants points to distress in an increasing number of generators and a domestic supply shortfall.

JTull
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2333
Joined: 18 Jul 2001 11:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby JTull » 10 Jul 2018 16:48

Theo_Fidel wrote: As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc.


This does not include impending switch of automotive sector from fossil fuels to electricity.

Vips
BRFite
Posts: 1115
Joined: 14 Apr 2017 18:23

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vips » 10 Jul 2018 17:53

The increased use of Air conditioners by 2030 alone would result in additional demand of 300,000 MW.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Jul 2018 19:27

What is this 300,000 MW a metric of? peak/generation/capacity? Assuming it is peak. Unlikely. Maybe 30,000-50,000 MW tops peak generation. A/C is very well correlated with Solar PV so Solar will pick up almost all of this demand.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 10 Jul 2018 23:00

Theo, I think you are overstating the impact of population aging and massively understating the impact of rising incomes on electricity consumption. India's median age was just 26.7 in 2015. About 11 years less than China. And keep in mind that even their consumption is still growing strongly.

It's not just air conditioners. A whole lot of currently low-mid income households are going to be able to afford basic appliances like refrigerators (which run 24X7), washing machines, electric water heaters, space heaters in the colder regions which they lack now. The higher income households are adding other appliances like electric clothes dryers and dishwashers. And many of the villages newly connected to the grid have no houses with lights or fans or TV's either and hopefully will in the near future.

And we haven't even talked about industrial demand. The scope for growth is immense.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 11 Jul 2018 00:47

It is all accounted for. Maybe at at one time not any more. Things are a lot more efficient now. There is a reason demand growth is crawling even as the population is much more prosperous than 20 years ago. There is also a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and losses to draw on.

Right now India per capita is running about 1,200 kwhr per capita. Just increasing existing thermal to 90% lf and reducing line losses will doube this. Ultimate demand may peak at 4000 kwhr +/- Think about this with my numbers a family of 5 in India will be using about 12000 kwhr per year residential and another 10,000 kwhr per year industrial. That is a lot of power. Even here in wasteful midwest, my personal split is 11,000 kwhr per year PV and 5,500 kwhr per year grid. Family of 6 right now. Plus 2 EV's.

- A/C. Modern high efficiency A/c will not need more than 1 ton to cool a 1200 sqft apartment. About 2000 kwhr / year family of 5. 1/4 time run.
- Modern Refrigerators need less than 400 kwhr per year.
- Washing machines, Water heater, TV, etc. Less than 1000 kwhr per year.
- Space heaters, negligible. Probably run at low demand periods anyway.
- People shouldn't count on village demand. Residential needs in villages are astonishingly small numbers. In the 1980's I did the numbers for GOI where about 5,000 MW of capacity would have covered all the villages in India. Even with double the population.
- the first wild card is industrial demand. World over industry takes a 2/3 share of power. But India seems to be moving into more services. For good reason, we are not resource rich.
- Second wild card is picking up transportation with EV's. Family of 5 needs about 2000 kwhr to go 20,000 km/year India. Per person maybe 400 kwhr.

There is scope for growth. But you should be realistic. There is a lot of uncertainity on what the grid total demand will be long term. My suspicion is that ALL the thermal power India will ever need has already been installed. so why are folks still proposing thermal power? Who knows, cheap money, bad planning, institutional capture, all of the above. There is a term called 'stranded assets' that is doing the rounds.

Keep in mind the family that can afford all these contraptions, first thing they will do is put solar panels on their roof. That will kill 60% to 100% of your grid residential demand. Even here in 'wasteful' midwest every 10th house has a PV system already. In California parts it is already 1 of 3 and per new rules will be 100%. all corporates are already defecting to their own RE power plants, even in India.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6964
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Jul 2018 06:38

JTull wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
One reason is that the capital cost upfront is very high even though lifetime costs are low. This cost has to be paid by GoI. Private players can get into price agreements on power, but they pay upfron capital. Nuclear has very high energy density. Nuclear plant load efficiencies and are greater than 90% and produces much more energy. A 700MW plant actually produces over 600MW. A 100MW solar plant actually produces less than 20MW.

The base power load should be nuclear and peak power demand should come from solar.


You're mixing capacity factors with thermal efficiency. CANDU type PHWR reactors which form the bulk of power reactors in India have about 32-33% thermal efficiency at best. A 700MWe reactor probably produces about 2100 MWt. In India capacity factors above 100% have also been achieved by older reactors simply by upgrading equipment.


No I’m not. I said plant load efficiencies not thermodynamic efficiencies. This is why nuclear power plants are rated for MW(e) electric vs. MW-thermal. The MWe is what nuclear plants are sold for.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6964
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 11 Jul 2018 06:50

Theo_Fidel wrote:It is all accounted for. Maybe at at one time not any more. Things are a lot more efficient now. There is a reason demand growth is crawling even as the population is much more prosperous than 20 years ago. There is also a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and losses to draw on.

Right now India per capita is running about 1,200 kwhr per capita. Just increasing existing thermal to 90% lf and reducing line losses will doube this. Ultimate demand may peak at 4000 kwhr +/- Think about this with my numbers a family of 5 in India will be using about 12000 kwhr per year residential and another 10,000 kwhr per year industrial. That is a lot of power. Even here in wasteful midwest, my personal split is 11,000 kwhr per year PV and 5,500 kwhr per year grid. Family of 6 right now. Plus 2 EV's.

- A/C. Modern high efficiency A/c will not need more than 1 ton to cool a 1200 sqft apartment. About 2000 kwhr / year family of 5. 1/4 time run.
- Modern Refrigerators need less than 400 kwhr per year.
- Washing machines, Water heater, TV, etc. Less than 1000 kwhr per year.
- Space heaters, negligible. Probably run at low demand periods anyway.
- People shouldn't count on village demand. Residential needs in villages are astonishingly small numbers. In the 1980's I did the numbers for GOI where about 5,000 MW of capacity would have covered all the villages in India. Even with double the population.
- the first wild card is industrial demand. World over industry takes a 2/3 share of power. But India seems to be moving into more services. For good reason, we are not resource rich.
- Second wild card is picking up transportation with EV's. Family of 5 needs about 2000 kwhr to go 20,000 km/year India. Per person maybe 400 kwhr.

There is scope for growth. But you should be realistic. There is a lot of uncertainity on what the grid total demand will be long term. My suspicion is that ALL the thermal power India will ever need has already been installed. so why are folks still proposing thermal power? Who knows, cheap money, bad planning, institutional capture, all of the above. There is a term called 'stranded assets' that is doing the rounds.

Keep in mind the family that can afford all these contraptions, first thing they will do is put solar panels on their roof. That will kill 60% to 100% of your grid residential demand. Even here in 'wasteful' midwest every 10th house has a PV system already. In California parts it is already 1 of 3 and per new rules will be 100%. all corporates are already defecting to their own RE power plants, even in India.


Right now the CEA states that there is a deficit of around 1% every month. Of course this doesn’t account for growth. Right now the price of electricity must come down relative to per capital incomes.

Thermal coal cannot compete with natural gas. With the Russian Gazprom deal, should it go through, there will be more gas fired plants. It’s unlikely there will be new coal plants.

Picklu
BRFite
Posts: 1720
Joined: 25 Feb 2004 12:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Picklu » 23 Jul 2018 04:20

Theo_Fidel wrote:It is all accounted for. Maybe at at one time not any more. Things are a lot more efficient now. There is a reason demand growth is crawling even as the population is much more prosperous than 20 years ago. There is also a lot of low hanging fruit in terms of efficiency and losses to draw on.

Right now India per capita is running about 1,200 kwhr per capita. Just increasing existing thermal to 90% lf and reducing line losses will doube this. Ultimate demand may peak at 4000 kwhr +/- Think about this with my numbers a family of 5 in India will be using about 12000 kwhr per year residential and another 10,000 kwhr per year industrial. That is a lot of power. Even here in wasteful midwest, my personal split is 11,000 kwhr per year PV and 5,500 kwhr per year grid. Family of 6 right now. Plus 2 EV's.

- A/C. Modern high efficiency A/c will not need more than 1 ton to cool a 1200 sqft apartment. About 2000 kwhr / year family of 5. 1/4 time run.
- Modern Refrigerators need less than 400 kwhr per year.
- Washing machines, Water heater, TV, etc. Less than 1000 kwhr per year.
- Space heaters, negligible. Probably run at low demand periods anyway.
- People shouldn't count on village demand. Residential needs in villages are astonishingly small numbers. In the 1980's I did the numbers for GOI where about 5,000 MW of capacity would have covered all the villages in India. Even with double the population.
- the first wild card is industrial demand. World over industry takes a 2/3 share of power. But India seems to be moving into more services. For good reason, we are not resource rich.
- Second wild card is picking up transportation with EV's. Family of 5 needs about 2000 kwhr to go 20,000 km/year India. Per person maybe 400 kwhr.

There is scope for growth. But you should be realistic. There is a lot of uncertainity on what the grid total demand will be long term. My suspicion is that ALL the thermal power India will ever need has already been installed. so why are folks still proposing thermal power? Who knows, cheap money, bad planning, institutional capture, all of the above. There is a term called 'stranded assets' that is doing the rounds.

Keep in mind the family that can afford all these contraptions, first thing they will do is put solar panels on their roof. That will kill 60% to 100% of your grid residential demand. Even here in 'wasteful' midwest every 10th house has a PV system already. In California parts it is already 1 of 3 and per new rules will be 100%. all corporates are already defecting to their own RE power plants, even in India.


I largely concur with the above with 1 or 2 small deviations

1. Most of the people are moving into apartments in india so putting a rooftop pv system is not easy. It is easier for independent houses but the real estate sector is going the other way.
2. Whatever the actual demand is, please put a 1.5 "inverter battery backup factor"

Other than this, yes the appliances and electricals are consuming less and less every passing year. Already we are big in LED bulbs and flat panel TVs. The star rating of appliances are also catching up.

Rishirishi
BRFite
Posts: 1015
Joined: 12 Mar 2005 02:30

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Rishirishi » 23 Jul 2018 05:35

Greatest consumer of electricity are industry, business and government. Also bear in mind that about 70% of the population live in rural areas, where people have access to roof.

There is an huge number of beurocrats, businesses and employees who get income from the coal based power. They are desperately trying to convince us that coal still have a long way to go.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 23 Jul 2018 22:36

Rishirishi wrote:Greatest consumer of electricity are industry, business and government. Also bear in mind that about 70% of the population live in rural areas, where people have access to roof.

Urbanization will increase with economic growth. I already see areas which were formerly termed rural sprouting high rise (by small town standards) apartment buildings. Same with the expansion of existing cities at the edges. I don't see how roof-top solar will be as big a factor in India as in developed countries where most people live in single family homes.

On the other hand, for once we haven't waited to go thirsty before starting to dig the well. Both govt. and private sector has invested big in large scale solar power parks. That is the way to go in India.

There is an huge number of beurocrats, businesses and employees who get income from the coal based power. They are desperately trying to convince us that coal still have a long way to go.

Do you see any of them here? Let's address the arguments rather than the people making them, real or imaginary.

Coal is the dirtiest way of producing electricity. Unfortunately for us, we do not have deposits of oil and gas which we can use. For base load, we are stuck with coal for now. Nuclear would have been better but even the most optimistic projections don't have us producing more than a few percent of our total capacity using nuclear plants in the future.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 23 Jul 2018 22:54

Mort Walker wrote:Right now the CEA states that there is a deficit of around 1% every month. Of course this doesn’t account for growth. Right now the price of electricity must come down relative to per capital incomes.

You keep saying that but there is a limit to how much the price can reduce just by increasing supply. We cannot reduce it without destroying the producer's margins and making the plant nonviable.

Katare
BRF Oldie
Posts: 2294
Joined: 02 Mar 2002 12:31

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Katare » 24 Jul 2018 01:31

it's other way, per capita income should rise faster than the cost of electricity to make it more affordable for masses.

nachiket
Forum Moderator
Posts: 6211
Joined: 02 Dec 2008 10:49

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby nachiket » 24 Jul 2018 01:39

Katare wrote:it's other way, per capita income should rise faster than the cost of electricity to make it more affordable for masses.

Exactly. If our per-capita income is 1/4th of China (example) it does not imply that we should or could provide electricity at 1/4th of its cost in China. That is simply not possible.

Mort Walker
BRF Oldie
Posts: 6964
Joined: 31 May 2004 11:31
Location: The rings around Uranus.

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Jul 2018 10:51

nachiket wrote:
Katare wrote:it's other way, per capita income should rise faster than the cost of electricity to make it more affordable for masses.

Exactly. If our per-capita income is 1/4th of China (example) it does not imply that we should or could provide electricity at 1/4th of its cost in China. That is simply not possible.


It's actually both. Power is priced too high in India at nearly Rs. 8/unit (KWHR). It needs to be less than Rs. 4/unit. Some subsidies will be required. In fact, energy as a whole is priced too high in India and fuel taxes must be brought down, but both the center and states need that revenue. It would have been ideal to bring fuel under GST, but that didn't happen as it would have actually reduced taxes for the consumer.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 28 Jul 2018 00:00

Coal is not going to go down easily. There are millions of people working in the supply chain.

WRT apartments they may move towards aggregating pv. To supply about 20 mwh per family of 5 in 1800 kWh / m2 India we need about 50 m2 per family. Maybe cover car parks,west/east/ South side of building. On my east facing panels I get 60% of output. Quite decent.

For city of 1 million we need 10 million m2. About 2000 acres of roof top. Not an impossible number for most indian cities long term.

guru.shetty
BRFite -Trainee
Posts: 45
Joined: 28 Oct 2016 07:29

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby guru.shetty » 28 Jul 2018 03:52

Renewables (excluding large hydro) > Coal in Karnataka.

Coal: 9.8GW
Renewables: 12.3 GW (Solar: 5 GW, Wind: 4.7 GW, Small hydro + biomass = 2.5 GW)

Now obviously, this is only rated power and we know that solar and wind have capacity factors of 25% vs Coal's ~60% (coal in karnataka has a poor 35% utilization).

Overall in 2017-18, karnataka looks to have generated 30.6 twh in energy from renewables + large hydro + nuclear vs 29.6 twh from coal.

And we have just begun and it is only 2018.

Over the last one year, it has toppled Tamil Nadu to become the country’s biggest renewable power producer with an installed capacity of 12.3 gigawatts (GW, or 1,000 megawatts). This includes 5 GW of solar, 4.7 GW of wind, and around 2.6 GW of other renewables such as small hydro, biomass, and heat and power cogeneration. In comparison, the state’s coal power capacity is around 9.8 GW.


https://qz.com/1334023/karnataka-is-ind ... stly-coal/
Last edited by guru.shetty on 28 Jul 2018 05:11, edited 1 time in total.

Gyan
BRFite
Posts: 1071
Joined: 26 Aug 2016 19:14

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Gyan » 28 Jul 2018 11:49

As per my thumb rule calculations. Thermal solar power with 24 hour availability covering 3% of Indian Land area can provide 100% of all round power in India.

Similarly, off shore wind turbines are already hitting 65% efficiency using 12 MW turbines. By 2030 with 25MW turbines we will be hitting 85% efficiency & availability

Combining only 1hr battery storage, better transmission grid, weather prediction tools etc can improve wind power availablility by 10 to 20% by smoothening out the fluctuations in wind flow.

Theo_Fidel
BRF Oldie
Posts: 7613
Joined: 31 Mar 2006 02:15
Location: MO,US,NCJ TN

Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Theo_Fidel » 28 Jul 2018 21:11

Gyan,

Have there been any India CSP bids recently. Is it getting closer to pv Rs 3 / kWh number


Return to “Technology & Economic Forum”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: komal and 8 guests