We may be closer to the peak than most folks suspect.
We did the numbers here on BRF many years ago.
To get close to First World living. Yes, including A/C for all and maybe even electric cars.
Carefully with maximum efficiency, the thought was that India could do it with per capita consumption of 4,000-5,000 kwhr / year. Minimal winter heat need, USA is wildly wasteful @ 12,000 kwhr / year per capita, etc. China is somewhere around 4,000 kwhr right now, and is largely A/C-fied. Right now India Per Capita Consumption is about 1,200 kwhr/year
So a tripling of consumption would do it, Maybe a quadrupling in the long term, out to 2100.
The thought was about 700,000 GW thermal equivalent would do, even with population growth. As India gets older electricity needs will go down, etc. We already have ~ 350,000MW of Thermal, w/ large T/D losses and abysmal 50% type capacity factors. We need about 1,000,000 MW of RE to match it. The present target of 225,000 MW of RE by 2022 is about ¼ of what we need. About 3 Million acres of desert/wasteland. If we keep up the present pace, the whole thing will be over by 2035 and we move into maintenance, tweaking mode.
Personally I suspect we have a lot more time than 2035 to get this done. I also suspect long term we will not keep more than 200,000 MW Thermal capacity. What happens to the other 150,000 MW Thermal and the 50,000 MW under construction/planning. Another good question. Even the bankers are getting nervous for a good reason. Folks within GOI know which way this is going and have dropped heavy hints recently. We will see.
For reference solar bids have again fallen to Rs 2.44 / kwhr. Sub Rs 2 / kwhr pricing is coming, even if the industry is not ready for it. Long term it will get to Rs 1 and stay there once these plants are amortized. I don't know any thermal that can compete at that point.