India's Power Sector

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Mort Walker
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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 05 Oct 2019 04:18

Vayutuvan wrote:India's total installed capacity is 282 GW

Here is the Wikipedia page on that. Let us talk numbers. At a gross level, assuming that at the peak demand, the entire 282 GW is consumed then we are talking a reduction of 1+ GW at 282 GW. Better calculations can be made, of course.

Even if we cut down the peak demand to 100 GW, then the reduction is 1%. This is peanuts.


As Suraj said it is >360 GW installed capacity. Actual generation is much less than that on any given day. Nuclear is the most efficient and RES is the least efficient. At night when the wind doesn’t blow as hard and the sun doesn’t shine, then RES efficiencies are abysmal. Reducing night time load by nearly 1.2 GW is nothing to sneeze at.

Keep in mind that power generation is one thing and actual efficiencies of generation is another. Then there are losses in transmission, which is much less today than in past, but still present.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 05 Oct 2019 10:33

mort walker ji, so what is the peak demand? a loose upper limit is ok. we know that it is <= to the installed capacity. I agree with what you are saying. let us get a tight upper bound on the peak demand. then and then only one can sneeze or not sneeze at 1.12 GW reduction at the peak.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 06 Oct 2019 00:56

Vayutuvan wrote:mort walker ji, so what is the peak demand? a loose upper limit is ok. we know that it is <= to the installed capacity. I agree with what you are saying. let us get a tight upper bound on the peak demand. then and then only one can sneeze or not sneeze at 1.12 GW reduction at the peak.


Your answers are in the Central Electric Authority website. Data is available upto August 2019 and is typically updated monthly for the previous month.

Peak demand for August 2019 was 177.968 GW and production was 177.525 GW. A shortfall of ~442 MW. From April 2019 to Aug. 2019, the production shortfall was 1.271 GW (see the link below) in a worst case as it covered summer months. In the winter months the shortfall should be less, but I will wait for the report to come out. I think it should be <300 MW. Therefore the savings from LED replacement of 1.12 GW is significant. What this also tells us is that from installed capacity of 360 GW, the efficiency in production and distribution is <50%. The more use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), typically solar and wind, will only decrease this efficiency. Nuclear energy is very efficient, with least impact environmental impact, but it has a high initial cost.

http://cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/power ... eak-08.pdf

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby vishvak » 06 Oct 2019 01:30

Recycling is a priority if EVs are to go the Li-ion battery way - more than lithium itself, it seems cobalt would be the limiting resource.

It seems aluminium-air batteries would have better energy densities than iron-air, even exceeding the energy density of gasoline.

Prolly, just for clarity, let's say there is a model where energy requirements are broken down into following:
A. Refinery at shores
B. Some amount of strategic stock (of oil AND H2O) to tide over price fluctuations
C. Hydrogen+Oxygen gas tanks model for efficiency and last mile connectivity

- The purpose of refinery is to make efficient fuel out of cheap crude
- strategic stock of (oil and H2O) to reduce demand deficiency
- H2O tanks to take energy (including power) to place of local depot that are designed (areawise distance from power generator plant) efficiently
- H2O is also environment fri and ly and such, but if used to charge batteries at local efficient (onlee) charging places, can replace oil 'locally'.

In other words make
- oil/renewable into H2O (efficient charging locations ECLs) then transport to local ECLs located at least power-wastage places - to get over power wastage
- strategic storage of H2O for demand fluctuations (and interruptions external haks and others)

What is needed is to put huge efforts for H2O tech.
Again just for clarity.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2019 02:28

For load smoothing, storage of excess as "kinetic energy in vacuum chamber enclosed flywheels" seem to be superior to batteries. Another alternative that was proposed is to pump up water or lift up big blocks of concrete and recover the PE during peak demand times.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 06 Oct 2019 02:40

Vayutuvan wrote:For load smoothing, storage of excess as "kinetic energy in vacuum chamber enclosed flywheels" seem to be superior to batteries. Another alternative that was proposed is to pump up water or lift up big blocks of concrete and recover the PE during peak demand times.


The losses are still too high and for a large scale it makes little economic sense. The only place this can work is if you have a solar park near a hydro electric plant. Nuclear power is the way to go using thorium. That is until we get fusion power in place in the next 20 years.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 06 Oct 2019 04:14

One gigawatt of generation capacity costs around $1.5 billion in India.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2019 05:10

A_Gupta wrote:One gigawatt of generation capacity costs around $1.5 billion in India.

Capex Opex or levelized?

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2019 05:16

Mort Walker wrote:The losses are still too high and for a large scale it makes little economic sense. The only place this can work is if you have a solar park near a hydro electric plant. Nuclear power is the way to go using thorium. That is until we get fusion power in place in the next 20 years.


Can no useful work be done near the power plant? In that case, we should co-locate battery, solar panel, and windmill manufacturing plants right next to the power plants. Coal-fired power plants tend to be near coal mines. Other mines - iron ore, bauxite, copper - have a high chance of being nearby. There is little reason to have steel plants like Mukund or heavy machinery like L&T in a place like Mumbai. In the olden days, it would have made sense to be near a port. But why now?

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 06 Oct 2019 05:22

^^^ to build and start up, so I guess capex?

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 06 Oct 2019 05:46

A_Gupta wrote:One gigawatt of generation capacity costs around $1.5 billion in India.


Where did that cost info come from? Remember that cost is for >85% efficiency. Solar is 11-15% and wind 35-45% efficient. In other words, it costs more, but is better able to meet peak power demands.

The NPCIL has expertise on the CANDU design using PHWR and has brought costs down. New designs using thorium have been developed by BARC, but have not been finalized.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby hgupta » 06 Oct 2019 08:48

Mort Walker wrote:
Vayutuvan wrote:mort walker ji, so what is the peak demand? a loose upper limit is ok. we know that it is <= to the installed capacity. I agree with what you are saying. let us get a tight upper bound on the peak demand. then and then only one can sneeze or not sneeze at 1.12 GW reduction at the peak.


Your answers are in the Central Electric Authority website. Data is available upto August 2019 and is typically updated monthly for the previous month.

Peak demand for August 2019 was 177.968 GW and production was 177.525 GW. A shortfall of ~442 MW. From April 2019 to Aug. 2019, the production shortfall was 1.271 GW (see the link below) in a worst case as it covered summer months. In the winter months the shortfall should be less, but I will wait for the report to come out. I think it should be <300 MW. Therefore the savings from LED replacement of 1.12 GW is significant. What this also tells us is that from installed capacity of 360 GW, the efficiency in production and distribution is <50%. The more use of Renewable Energy Sources (RES), typically solar and wind, will only decrease this efficiency. Nuclear energy is very efficient, with least impact environmental impact, but it has a high initial cost.

http://cea.nic.in/reports/monthly/power ... eak-08.pdf


The efficiency of RES will increase when coupled with large scale battery storage. Certain events have shown this to be happening and it will be part of a long term trend.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 06 Oct 2019 08:59

hgupta wrote:The efficiency of RES will increase when coupled with large scale battery storage. Certain events have shown this to be happening and it will be part of a long term trend.


What certain events? There have been incremental improvements in battery systems, but what we're talking about is akin to steam engine improvements of over 100 years. Batteries are the early 21st century equivalent to the early 20th century steam engine. Stop thinking steam engine and think about improving electron flow.

The idea of large scale battery storage for large power plants is a fallacy. Then cost goes up very high (>$100/KwHr today) along with environmental degradation. For RES, storage is essentially the electric grid as dishaji pointed out some time back. Nuclear power is Rs. 4.4/KWHr (unit) wholesale to SEBs. Solar and wind are of course cheaper, but with large scale battery storage, and the problems associated with it, will put the cost near Rs. 10/unit wholesale to SEBs. It's not worth it and we won't see it in our lifetimes. It is better to spend that money on fuel cells and fusion research.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby A_Gupta » 06 Oct 2019 22:21

Mort Walker wrote:
A_Gupta wrote:One gigawatt of generation capacity costs around $1.5 billion in India.


Where did that cost info come from? Remember that cost is for >85% efficiency. Solar is 11-15% and wind 35-45% efficient. In other words, it costs more, but is better able to meet peak power demands.

The NPCIL has expertise on the CANDU design using PHWR and has brought costs down. New designs using thorium have been developed by BARC, but have not been finalized.


The numbers are a few years old. When the Chinese were building Pakistan's Sahiwal coal-fired power plants, I compared the publicly stated costs of those with comparable power plants built by Indian corporation (Tatas, Adani, Reliance, etc.) in India, Vietnam and elsewhere (currently escapes my memory; will probably come back in some hours :D, that is life these days). One finding was the approximate cost of generating capacity, and the second was that China was charging Pakistan about 50% more than the Indian costs.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2019 22:33

hgupta ji, please do give us cradle to cradle embodied energy figures for batteries taking into consideration how many recharge cycles these batteries can withstand. after that what is the energy to recycle the material? that is what we need to consider - cradle to cradle. not cradle to grave.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Vayutuvan » 06 Oct 2019 22:41

by the way, CER prices crashed from 20 euro per ton to about 0.24 euro and have recovered some what to 0.35 euro.

sharpest fall was around 2008.

if companies of renewable power generation are profitable only if CERs are at certain level (which was the case in India afte Kyoto - many foreign companies gave funding to local small businesses saying that they will buy certain number of CERs at spot price) they are in trouble now. many of is 4-10 mw plants are non-operational. bad idea to business investment on the say so of alarmists at the UN and /or airopeans.

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Re: India's Power Sector

Postby Mort Walker » 07 Oct 2019 00:01

A_Gupta wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
Where did that cost info come from? Remember that cost is for >85% efficiency. Solar is 11-15% and wind 35-45% efficient. In other words, it costs more, but is better able to meet peak power demands.

The NPCIL has expertise on the CANDU design using PHWR and has brought costs down. New designs using thorium have been developed by BARC, but have not been finalized.


The numbers are a few years old. When the Chinese were building Pakistan's Sahiwal coal-fired power plants, I compared the publicly stated costs of those with comparable power plants built by Indian corporation (Tatas, Adani, Reliance, etc.) in India, Vietnam and elsewhere (currently escapes my memory; will probably come back in some hours :D, that is life these days). One finding was the approximate cost of generating capacity, and the second was that China was charging Pakistan about 50% more than the Indian costs.


According to the world nuclear association in 2015:
https://www.world-nuclear.org/informati ... power.aspx

Image

These figures are actually higher than what NPCIL is capable of. Further, the use of Thorium sands and going away from pressurized system will bring costs down. The question is, given the capital cost being so high, it makes more sense to use natural gas to handle the base load and then RES for peak loads during the day.


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