Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

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Mort Walker
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 17 Jun 2018 20:53

Austin wrote:Cant help if you are dellusional and you can believe all that you may about US Shale but there is nothing yet on stastics to prove it , If OPEC and Russia wants it can dominate the Energy market at the price they want shale or not that is the reason the agreement brought the price to above $70 from $40 , they are controlling the market and its good for both to have high oil price.

Shipment has already started let the competition begin good for India :D
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/russias ... at-1862619


You’re funny saying that over 2 MMBPD won’t afftect prices. Too bad I don’t drink liquor or that Russian vodka would give me a nice stupor to believe anything. That shipment was from Gazprom resources in Nigeria. It wasn’t from Russia. OPEC can raise prices, but shale oil has the ability to moderate it.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 18 Jun 2018 18:02

It is funny because all that 2MMBPD could not prevent crude rising to above $70 isnt it and that happend when OPEC/Russia decided to cut production till market demand supply stabalises !

If Shale had such sway in the market we would have seen Oil at $40 today and if OPEC cut it Shale would have increased and compensated but that is not happening.

So you can have all your Jack Daniels but all the Shale affecting the price is just Marketing Gimmick nothing more nothing less and if something this can happen in future with rising US interest rate lets wait and watch !

May be the magical extaction technology can do that :)

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Jun 2018 08:58

^^^That is already over 2 MMBPD today and is ramping up to 5 MMPBD. The only marketing gimmick are all the goods out of Russia - which is the equivalent of Italy with nuclear weapons. There is enough oil output from US shale which is equal to Iran. If shale wasn't there oil would be near $100/barrel today. Keep up the good work for your Russian masters!
Last edited by JayS on 19 Jun 2018 09:04, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: Please refrain from personal attacks. It gets dirty soon. Next time there wil be warning.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby KrishnaK » 20 Jun 2018 11:01

Arguing both that shale production is pricier and that if shale output were significant enough to sway prices, oil would be at a low $40 is self-contradictory and absurd.

OPEC calls on US shale oil producers to accept 'shared responsibility' of slashing global supply

North American shale drillers have helped production soar by nearly 10 percent in the U.S. this year, according to Reuters, despite OPEC and some other producers — including Russia — cutting supplies in a bid to prop up prices.


Clearly shale output is significant enough for OPEC to react to it. Question is how significant. This article argues that Saudi Arabia is still the dominant producer of oil, given its significant reserve capacity

This loss of market share may be even more harmful to OPEC in today’s world of energy abundance. Predicting the timing of peak oil demand is becoming a parlor game among oil economists. While nearly all agree that the world will see one to two decades of continuing oil demand growth, maintaining market share in this changing world is more important than in the past. OPEC may have won the battle to raise the oil price, but it appears to be losing the market share war.

THE UNITED STATES IS A CRUCIAL OIL PRODUCER, BUT NOT A “DOMINANT” ONE.
The United States has become an important oil producer and changed the landscape of the global oil market, particularly with its ability to more quickly rebalance the market in response to price changes. But important differences between the U.S. and Saudi oil industries mean that the United States will not take over the Saudi role in global oil markets, even though it is poised to surpass Saudi Arabia in terms of production volume.

Saudi oil is all produced by a single entity—Saudi Aramco—which is owned and operated by the Saudi government. Saudi Aramco does not operate on a simple profit motive like a for-profit company. Concerns about politics and management of the global oil market influence production decisions in a way that would not occur at a company solely focused on profit. Saudi Aramco plans to sell shares equaling five percent of its value in an initial public offering (IPO) in the second half of this year, but the fundamental structure and decisionmaking at the company will remain controlled by the government.

In the United States, the oil industry is made up of dozens of companies that make individual investment and production decisions, based on their own costs, financial positions, and appetites for risk. The U.S. oil industry will never act as one to manage the market or raise prices. In fact, such behavior is illegal under anti-trust law. But this is exactly how Saudi Aramco and the other OPEC members operate—it is the very purpose of OPEC.

A related point is that all of the individual U.S. producers are price takers in the marketplace, meaning that they have no ability to influence global oil prices through their own actions. But Saudi Aramco is large enough for its production decisions to influence prices. In addition to reducing production to push prices upward, as is happening today, Saudi Arabia can rapidly increase production to deal with oil supply disruptions. Saudi Arabia is the only oil producing country with significant spare production capacity. The U.S. Energy Information Administration estimates that the Saudis keep 1.5 to 2 million bbl/d of production capacity in reserve, a strategy that would not make economic sense for a for-profit company.


The last point is important - Saudi Arabia's importance in the international system is at least partly due to it's swing producer status. I don't think Russia's in the same league.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 24 Jun 2018 10:51

IF Russia was not in the same league then Saudi would not have made an effort to cut Oil Production.

This is turning out to be a formal alliance now after success of Production Cut

Russia-Saudi Plans for Super-OPEC Could Reshape Global Order

Russian Oil Minister Alexander Novak said in a speech yesterday that “we need to build upon our successful cooperation model and institutionalize its success through a broader and more permanent strategically focused framework.” His Saudi counterpart Khalid Al-Falih echoed those comments and OPEC President Suhail Al Mazrouei today said a charter for the enlarged group had been circulated with a view to an agreement by the end of the year.


Oil Prices are rising even after 1 million barrel rise agreed by OPEC +
https://www.bloomberg.com/energy

Looks like the Demand is more than Supply

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby JohnTitor » 24 Jun 2018 17:53

^^ Supply is to increase later in the year. So it isn't going to affect spot prices, but futures should fall slightly - the increase is only marginal

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 25 Jun 2018 02:00

A GE puff piece but has some interesting facts on Indian oil reserves.
https://qz.com/247218/how-india-can-cut-its-120-billion-annual-energy-import-bill/

Coal: From a mere 2% of overall coal consumption in 1990, imports made up 16% of coal consumed in 2012, with the imported resources costing twice as much as those produced domestically.
Natural Gas: Between 2000 and 2012 the consumption of natural gas doubled, and a dependency on imported gas was established, growing from zero to 22% of consumed natural gas.
Oil: In 1990 India imported 37% of oil it consumed while in 2012 it imported a staggering 82% of consumed oil, pushing the import bill to $120 billion and making it the energy source with the highest import dependency.


India does not have to remain dependent on foreign energy commodities. An estimated 75% of India’s sedimentary basins have yet to be adequately explored. Of the 26 known sedimentary basins in the country, only seven are currently producing oil and gas.


Image

Since 1950, roughly 69 trillion cubic feet of proven and probable recoverable gas reserves have been discovered in India. However, only 42 trillion cubic feet have been developed and are currently under production. That leaves 18 trillion cubic feet of reserves yet to be produced and 27 trillion cubic feet of reserves yet to be developed. According to an analysis of 12 basins across India, approximately 64 trillion cubic feet of risked recoverable resources are yet to be found. Thus, India holds at least 91 trillion cubic feet of recoverable gas reserves. On top of conventional gas reserves, India also holds an estimated 63 trillion cubic feet of recoverable shale gas. While these reserves are considered to be a secondary energy option, Indian agencies are encouraging exploration, and leading companies, such as ONGC and OIL, have implemented pilot projects to assess the shale opportunity.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 25 Jun 2018 02:07

https://qz.com/568029/india-will-need-new-energy-sources-to-keep-up-with-its-fast-growth/

Spurred by that charge, Indian companies are expanding into new areas and experimenting with technology to feed growing demand. For one, Super Wave Technology is developing an alternative extraction technology, using shock waves to initiate fractures in shale reservoirs located in the depth of 1000-1500 meters. The traditional hydraulic fracturing process produces large volumes of contaminated water that can flow back from the well. Replacing water with shock waves would help drillers avoid the water contamination and broader environmental problems.


https://www.business-standard.com/content/b2b-chemicals/ongc-super-wave-technology-to-co-develop-alternative-for-hydraulic-fracturing-115022000033_1.html?=2

Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) has signed a Memorandum of Understanding with Super Wave Technology Pvt Ltd (SWTPL) - a company incorporated by Society for Innovation and Development at the Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore - for development of an alternative to hydraulic fracturing or fracking technology that is used to produce shale oil and gas.


"With this partnership, ONGC will provide assistance to SWTPL for developing shock wave assisted fracking technology, an alternate to the conventional hydraulic fracturing. If proven effective as a substitute to hydraulic fracturing, in particular for shale gas exploitation, it will be a game changer for the oil and gas industry," ONGC said in a press release.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 25 Jun 2018 06:02

From what I’ve seen, ONGC has really world class engineers and scientists who can do excellent analysis, bit ONGC lacks the capital to exploit resources. Some years ago Reliance industries came in and scooped up entire departments within ONGC offering them more than double pay.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 25 Jun 2018 08:58

ONGC has annual profits of 3 billion dollars for the last several years. It has 20 billion in reserves. There were news of it planning to spend billions in exploration a few years ago. Don't know if it did or if anything came off it. The govt. can provide more if needed. Better than spending 100 billion dollars every years in foreign exchange.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby nandakumar » 26 Jun 2018 13:49

Any thoughts among members here as to how the impending US sanctions on Iran will affect oil prices for supplies to India? Last time around oil companies routed payments through UCO Bank which was not exposed to US operations and the bank got interest free funds which helped it show profits. There was an interview in BL of the then Chairman of UCO Bank to this effect.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Sachin » 26 Jun 2018 15:09



nits
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby nits » 27 Jun 2018 16:07

what next now - stop sending tourist to Banana Republic ?

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 27 Jun 2018 18:05

India to build two more strategic petroleum reserves: Piyush Goyal.

The cabinet on Wednesday approved establishment of two strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) with a total capacity of 6.5 mln tonnes, interim Finance Minister Piyush Goyal said.

India will set up a 4.4-million-tonnes SPR at Chandikhol in Odisha, and a 2.5-million-tonnes facility at Padur in Karnataka.

India has built three SPR of 5.33 million tonnes in southern India equivalent to meet 10 days of crude requirement.

The two planned SPRs will be provide additional supply of about 12 days.

India to approach potential investors for operating the SPRs on public private partnership.

ADNOC has leased a part of the existing storage at Padur.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 28 Jun 2018 13:07

https://twitter.com/spectatorindex/stat ... 2050756608

The Spectator Index

Oil price needed to balance budget.

Venezuela: $223
Nigeria: $124
Algeria: $105
Angola: $78
Saudi: $87
Iran: $68
Kazakhstan: $60
Iraq: $54
Kuwait: $48
Russia: $40

Current oil price: $77.4

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 29 Jun 2018 11:20

India braces for life without Iran oil, mulls Plan B

https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/bus ... 783643.cms

HIGHLIGHTS
Amid pressure from US, India may have to stop Iranian oil flowing onto its refineries
Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait may fill the gap but there will be increase in costs
Unsure of how things will pan out, oil ministry told refiners to ready alternative sources

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Austin » 12 Jul 2018 11:00

If US gets its way with Iran, oil could spike to $120, says Bank of America

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/07/06/if-us-g ... tegis.html

Oil could spike to $120 per barrel or more if the U.S. were able to eliminate all Iranian oil exports, as it has said it would like to do by Nov. 4, according to Bank of America Merrill Lynch.
Iran has been exporting more than 2 million barrels a day, and BofAML expects just about a quarter of that to be removed from the market due to a global oil deficit.
President Donald Trump has asked Saudi Arabia to tap its spare capacity of 2 million barrels and add more oil to the market, but BofAML said it is untested and the market is skeptical that it can maintain a much higher level of exports without drawing on its inventories.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 12 Jul 2018 16:29

US soon to leapfrog Saudis, Russia as top oil producer.

The US is on pace to leapfrog both Saudi Arabia and Russia and reclaim the title of the world’s biggest oil producer for the first time since the 1970s.

The latest forecast from the US Energy Information Administration predicts that US output will grow next year to 11.8 million barrels a day.

“If the forecast holds, that would make the US the world’s leading producer of crude,” says Linda Capuano, who heads the agency, a part of the Energy Department.

Saudi Arabia and Russia could upend that forecast by boosting their own production. In the face of rising global oil prices, members of the OPEC cartel and a few non-members including Russia agreed last month to ease production caps that had contributed to the run-up in prices.

President Donald Trump has urged the Saudis to pump more oil to contain rising prices. He tweeted on June 30 that King Salman agreed to boost production “maybe up to 2,000,000 barrels.” The White House later clarified that the king said his country has a reserve of 2 million barrels a day that could be tapped “if and when necessary.”

The idea that the US could ever again become the world’s top oil producer once seemed preposterous.

“A decade ago the only question was how fast would US production go down,” said Daniel Yergin, author of several books about the oil industry including a history, “The Prize.” The rebound of US output “has made a huge difference. If this had not happened, we would have had a severe shortage of world oil,” he said.

The United States led the world in oil production for much of the 20th century, but the Soviet Union surpassed America in 1974, and Saudi Arabia did the same in 1976, according to Energy Department figures.

By the end of the 1970s the USSR was producing one-third more oil than the US; by the end of the 1980s, Soviet output was nearly double that of the US.

The last decade or so has seen a revolution in American energy production, however, led by techniques including hydraulic fracturing, or fracking, and horizontal drilling.

Those innovations — and the breakup of the Soviet Union — helped the US narrow the gap. Last year, Russia produced more than 10.3 million barrels a day, Saudi Arabia pumped just under 10 million, and the US came in under 9.4 million barrels a day, according to US government figures.

The US has been pumping more than 10 million barrels a day on average since February, and probably pumped about 10.9 million barrels a day in June, up from 10.8 million in May, the energy agency said Tuesday in its latest short-term outlook.

Capuano’s agency forecast that US crude output will average 10.8 million barrels a day for all of 2018 and 11.8 million barrels a day in 2019. The current US record for a full year is 9.6 million barrels a day in 1970.

The trend of rising US output prompted Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency, to predict this spring that the US would leapfrog Russia and become the world’s largest producer by next year — if not sooner.

One potential obstacle for US drillers is a bottleneck of pipeline capacity to ship oil from the Permian Basin of Texas and New Mexico to ports and refineries.

“They are growing the production but they can’t get it out of the area fast enough because of pipeline constraints,” said Jim Rittersbusch, a consultant to oil traders.

Some analysts believe that Permian production could decline, or at least grow more slowly, in 2019 or 2020 as energy companies move from their best acreage to more marginal areas.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 14 Jul 2018 05:39

^^^Export will be at least 3 MMBPD, and most likely that’s already happening. The bigger story is shale gas. The US has ability to keep the price of oil going too high.


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