Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

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Rishirishi
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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 17 Mar 2020 03:58

Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Kati » 17 Mar 2020 04:24

Bharat is stockpiling strategic petro reserve.... Very good move.
Saudi and Abu Dhabi are too willing to store their oil on Bharat soil.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Prem » 19 Mar 2020 01:53

Crude oil is 22 $ a Barrel Today.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby nachiket » 19 Mar 2020 02:14

Absolute insanity from SA and Russia. Demand is falling like crazy because of the coronavirus and these guys are still pumping out oil at full speed. Now they are saying that there may not be enough space to store all this oil that nobody is buying.

Oil collapses by another 24% to $20. It hasn't been this low since 2002

With travel restrictions and quarantines accelerating, energy analysts are scrambling to downgrade their oil demand forecasts.
Goldman Sachs now expects 2020 oil demand to shrink by 1.1 million barrels per day, hitting a low in March when demand could plunge by 8 million barrels.
Rystad Energy is even more pessimistic, calling for a plunge of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2020. That's up fourfold from the energy firm's previous call for a drop of just 600,000 barrels per day. April demand alone is likely to nosedive by 11 million barrels per day, Rystad said.
Jet fuel is the biggest problem, with airlines around the world scrapping flights and parking planes because of travel restrictions. Global commercial air traffic will drop by about 20% this year, Rystad predicted.

...

One of the problems is that there is now so much oil around the world that it will be difficult to find places to put it all.

"We believe the velocity of the upcoming inventory builds is now certain to overwhelm the ability to fill storage," Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, wrote to clients in a note.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby kit » 19 Mar 2020 05:10

Kati wrote:Bharat is stockpiling strategic petro reserve.... Very good move.
Saudi and Abu Dhabi are too willing to store their oil on Bharat soil.


i think the full stock pile is for 45 days ?

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby kit » 19 Mar 2020 05:11

Prem wrote:Crude oil is 22 $ a Barrel Today.



whatever that comes down has to ...

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Mar 2020 07:15

Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.


Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Mar 2020 07:17

nachiket wrote:Absolute insanity from SA and Russia. Demand is falling like crazy because of the coronavirus and these guys are still pumping out oil at full speed. Now they are saying that there may not be enough space to store all this oil that nobody is buying.

Oil collapses by another 24% to $20. It hasn't been this low since 2002

With travel restrictions and quarantines accelerating, energy analysts are scrambling to downgrade their oil demand forecasts.
Goldman Sachs now expects 2020 oil demand to shrink by 1.1 million barrels per day, hitting a low in March when demand could plunge by 8 million barrels.
Rystad Energy is even more pessimistic, calling for a plunge of 2.8 million barrels per day in 2020. That's up fourfold from the energy firm's previous call for a drop of just 600,000 barrels per day. April demand alone is likely to nosedive by 11 million barrels per day, Rystad said.
Jet fuel is the biggest problem, with airlines around the world scrapping flights and parking planes because of travel restrictions. Global commercial air traffic will drop by about 20% this year, Rystad predicted.

...

One of the problems is that there is now so much oil around the world that it will be difficult to find places to put it all.

"We believe the velocity of the upcoming inventory builds is now certain to overwhelm the ability to fill storage," Damien Courvalin, head of energy research at Goldman Sachs, wrote to clients in a note.


It's only going to last a few months as Russia can't afford to run a price war.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby nandakumar » 19 Mar 2020 08:14

Mort Walker wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.


Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.

The recent hike in Excise duty on Petrol and diesel is meant to protect the cost differential so the EV transition doesn't get derailed.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Mar 2020 18:16

^^^The recent excise duty increase was to protect government revenue and cushion for the potential when prices shoot up later. I did not see anywhere that GoI is using it for protecting for transition to battery EVs.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Vips » 19 Mar 2020 18:24

While increasing the excise duty a part of the resulting increase in the revenue has been specifically earmarked by the Modi govt to go into the infrastructure (Roads) development fund.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 19 Mar 2020 18:47

^^^That is understandable. Road development fund is different from battery EV development which the GoI should leave to the auto sector. Sure, GoI can pass mandates about EVs, but funding it is an entirely different matter.

Even then, nothing in news reports indicated the additional excise tax was for road development. GoI increased excise duty to cover their losses from low oil prices. It was nothing more than to increase revenue. Lower prices should have been passed down to the consumer instead in a situation where economic growth has significantly slowed.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 20 Mar 2020 04:32

Mort Walker wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:Indias oil import bill could half from 100 billion to 50 billion dollars. Hopefully some those funds are used to build supercharges for battery operated cars and trucks.


Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.


Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Mar 2020 04:52

Rishirishi wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
Neither the GoI or private industry is going to waste a single Rupee on battery EVs which don't represent even 1% of vehicles in India. Sure you'll see a few busses, trucks and cars for those who are hobbyist inclined. Hybrid vehicles followed by fuel cells are the future. Battery technology is dead end and GoI knows it full well.


Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.


You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby kit » 20 Mar 2020 05:16

Mort Walker wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.


You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.


There are different battery technologies on the horizon ., have a look

https://www.pocket-lint.com/gadgets/news/130380-future-batteries-coming-soon-charge-in-seconds-last-months-and-power-over-the-air

my bet would be the graphene polymers powering Teslas , the revolution is not that far off .. the oil price war is not exactly what it seems to be , Russia seems to be in tango with the Saudis., both wants to short the US Shale., till then ..

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Mar 2020 05:36

^^^Graphene can not be made consistently in significant production numbers. You may see them for lower capacity devices such as mobiles. EVs are different matter as battery sizes are huge. All of the battery chemistry ideas still have the problem of charge. Putting a lot of current across a circuit is very dangerous much like putting petrol in your car while smoking. Another method must be developed for storing energy. CNG cracking, even compressed hydrogen filling takes much less time. Right now, until we get to fuel-cell technology, hybrid EVs using a small gasoline combustion engine that is running at a constant RPM, but with DC motors, regenerative braking and small lithium batteries, we can easily get to 30 Km/liter for larger vehicles like a Tata Hexa or Toyota Innova.

Tesla is relying on cheap Chinese lithium batteries and AC motors using DC-AC inverters on each motor (yes, there is loss). You would think they would use DC brushless motors, but they cost more.

Oil prices go up and down. Right now air travel is down, but in 6 months, prices will go up as Russia or Saudi can ill afford a price war.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby sanjaykumar » 20 Mar 2020 10:17

Apparently capacitors when improved will render on board batteries obsolete.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 20 Mar 2020 11:05

Super capacitors have been around for a while. Their cost is very high and have specific applications.

This discussion is going side tracked. It's about oil and gas. There are plenty of other threads (~3) for people to discuss their fantasies about batteries and EVs.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 19 Apr 2020 23:48

How does oil hit -ve prices?

Interesting discussions I have been observing from the Middle East for a few weeks. First this from an UAE newspaper at April beginning on how oil can go into negative price territory.

Negative prices – a scenario markets are increasingly becoming wary of –occur when benchmarks plunge below zero and trade in the negative. In such a situation, producers are expected to pay potential buyers to take their output as they run out of storage space. While negative prices for oil have already been seen for specific crude grades in the US, it has yet to impact the widely traded commodity benchmarks Brent and WTI


Then yesterday this from Bloomberg on how it actually is a out to happen.
Texas Oil at $2 a Barrel Raises Specter of Negative Price




Now

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mukesh.Kumar » 19 Apr 2020 23:58

Seems the Government is trying to work overtime tofill up the strategic crude reserve before Monsoon hits.

What I am surprised at is that at 5.3 mn tonnes ( 39 mn bbls) is just above 7 days. I remember seeing earlier reports of plans for up to 15 days of reserved. Wonder what went wrong. Clearly there is sense in creating larger capacities.

But overall if we are able to reopen the economy in a month or so the country can confer roaring back. Hope the government will pass on since of the oil savings through lower taxes to consumers.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 21 Apr 2020 05:15

Mort Walker wrote:
Rishirishi wrote:
Battery is the new thing. With an oilprice of 45 dollar barrel, Battery operated vehicles cost half the price to operate. Soon battery will also match the combustion engine cars. It is all a matter of time. India needs to get rid of the fuel import problem.


You seem to make the most innumerate (mathematically challenged) suggestions on this forum. You don't seem to understand power densities and cost. Battery EVs have only been successful because of cheap Chinese Lithium batteries costing $100/KWHr to manufacture. Everywhere else in the world they are much more costly. A large family car hybrid EV which gets at least 20 Km/liter is far cheaper to build and operate. Yes, it would have a battery, but no more than 15-20 KWHr capacity.


So Mr. Einstein where is the calculation for hybrid being cheaper to build and operate. What you are saying is pure c**p. Hybrid cars have to have both a petrol engine and an electric one. That is very costly.
Some calculations for a ICE
Prices of batteries are coming down as the volume goes up. The 100 dollar benchmark is very realistic and has probably been achieved by Tesla and VW.

A typical car with genuine range of 300Km will require a battery pack of approx 50Kwh. The cost savings of an ICE v electric engine is about 2500 dollars. Hence the extra cost of a 100% battery powered vehicle will be 2500 dollars. Or approx Rs 200 000 extra.

The electric vehicle can do 4,5 km per unit of electricity in Indian conditions (hence the cost per km is about Rs 1.2).

Cost of a vehicle with a 20km/L mileage and petrol costs Rs72/L is Rs 3,6 per km (hence a a cost reduction of 66%). A car that drives 150 000km will have saved Rs 160K durings its lifetime. But very few cars manage to give 20km/l after a few years and AC on. Most cars would not give more then 15 km/L. Hence the cost per km is realistically RS 4,8 per km.

The savings will be Rs 7,2 lacs, during the lifetime of the car, at 200 000km. Imagine driving 10km for only Rs 12 of electricity.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby hanumadu » 21 Apr 2020 09:18

Can't we buy WTI crude if our refineries can handle it and fill up our strategic reserves?

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Apr 2020 09:55

Rishirishi wrote:So Mr. Einstein where is the calculation for hybrid being cheaper to build and operate. What you are saying is pure c**p. Hybrid cars have to have both a petrol engine and an electric one. That is very costly.
Some calculations for a ICE
Prices of batteries are coming down as the volume goes up. The 100 dollar benchmark is very realistic and has probably been achieved by Tesla and VW.

A typical car with genuine range of 300Km will require a battery pack of approx 50Kwh. The cost savings of an ICE v electric engine is about 2500 dollars. Hence the extra cost of a 100% battery powered vehicle will be 2500 dollars. Or approx Rs 200 000 extra.

The electric vehicle can do 4,5 km per unit of electricity in Indian conditions (hence the cost per km is about Rs 1.2).

Cost of a vehicle with a 20km/L mileage and petrol costs Rs72/L is Rs 3,6 per km (hence a a cost reduction of 66%). A car that drives 150 000km will have saved Rs 160K durings its lifetime. But very few cars manage to give 20km/l after a few years and AC on. Most cars would not give more then 15 km/L. Hence the cost per km is realistically RS 4,8 per km.

The savings will be Rs 7,2 lacs, during the lifetime of the car, at 200 000km. Imagine driving 10km for only Rs 12 of electricity.



Your reasoning is flawed. These are $100/KWHr is for Chinese batteries. If batteries are made anywhere else, they'll be $150/KWHr. A small car will get 300KM range on a 50 KWHr battery. Anything heavier requiring more torque will drain the battery much faster. A 50 KWHr battery will cost at least $5,000. An ICE with a conventional transmission may be around $2,000, but what you can't seem to understand is the concept of running a small gasoline engine at a constant RPM that charges a battery to operate electric motors.

Tesla is sourcing its batteries from China, and we have yet to know the details of how these batteries perform over time. Tesla is not transparent and neither is VW. Both have lied. Tesla is the company which sent sleep apnea machines to hospitals in the US claiming they were medical ventilators.
Instead of ME petro-dollars, we trade them for Chinese Li-Ion dollars, which is equally if not more deadly to India and the world.

I'm talking actual hybrids for sale instead fairy tales your spouting. These hybrids cost less than half the price of similar sized pure EVs.

The 2020 Honda CR-V Hybrid is close to that concept and sells for around $30,000 giving 38 MPG:

The 2020 Honda CR-V Hybrid uses the same two-motor system as the Accord Hybrid, which gets a 2.0-liter Atkinson-cycle engine that produces 143 hp and 129 lb-ft of torque. An electric motor produces 181 hp and 232 lb-ft, which means that its 212 combined horsepower make it 22-hp more powerful than the gas version.


Similarly the 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid with 38 MPG sells for $30,000:

The 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid is powered by the 2.5L Dynamic Force engine as well as the multi-electric motor. ... The RAV4 Hybrid offers 219 combined net horsepower. In addition to this powerful yet highly efficient powertrain, every 2020 Toyota RAV4 Hybrid will offer an impressive drivetrain


I understand the CR-V or RAV4 in India would be a luxury car for most. However, other hybrid Honda and Toyota models will quickly follow in the next 2 years. They will be cheaper and larger than all pure EVs to make up for the cost of fuel. This is the reason Toyota, Honda and Mazda have not gotten into pure EVs. They will successfully make hybrids the size of the CR-V and Toyota RAV4 get over 50 MPG selling at half the cost of a pure EV within 2 years.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 21 Apr 2020 09:58

hanumadu wrote:Can't we buy WTI crude if our refineries can handle it and fill up our strategic reserves?


Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 22 Apr 2020 02:34

Your reasoning is flawed. These are $100/KWHr is for Chinese batteries. If batteries are made anywhere else, they'll be $150/KWHr. A small car will get 300KM range on a 50 KWHr battery. Anything heavier requiring more torque will drain the battery much faster. A 50 KWHr battery will cost at least $5,000. An ICE with a conventional transmission may be around $2,000, but what you can't seem to understand is the concept of running a small gasoline engine at a constant RPM that charges a battery to operate electric motors.

Tesla is sourcing its batteries from China, and we have yet to know the details of how these batteries perform over time. Tesla is not transparent and neither is VW. Both have lied. Tesla is the company which sent sleep apnea machines to hospitals in the US claiming they were medical ventilators.
Instead of ME petro-dollars, we trade them for Chinese Li-Ion dollars, which is equally if not more deadly to India and the world.


So what is your point? battery cars will not competitive ?


3 of my friends have Tesla, one has a Nissan Leaf. I have driven all 4 of the cars and they are MUCH better to drive. Smother, faster and quiet. It is another world. And maintenance is minimal. There is not much that can go wrong. No exhaust, radiator, engine, gearbox, clutch etc. The only issue with electric cars are the cost. But it is rapidly coming down

The VW ID3 will start from below 30 000 dollars, and have an advertised range of 330KM. I have seen the car, and it is awesome. Small from the outside, but very roomy inside. ICE is a gone case. Only a matter of time. It may be 2 years or maybe 5 years. No one knows.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Bart S » 22 Apr 2020 03:00

Mort Walker wrote:
hanumadu wrote:Can't we buy WTI crude if our refineries can handle it and fill up our strategic reserves?


Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.


I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 22 Apr 2020 04:49

Bart S wrote:
Mort Walker wrote:
Or from anywhere else. The GoI could with its forex, but has to hold much of it. The problem is the GoI, like all other govts around the world, are facing huge shortfall due to C19. Until these shutdowns/lockdowns end, then only will current account revenue go up.


I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?


The future price will reflect what the market price will be in the future. The main reason for the low oil price is storage capacity, which has started to fill up. There simply is not any place to send the produced oil to. Storage cost is about USD 0.5 dollars per month (depending on storage type and interest). Hence it will cost about 6 dollars per barrel, for storing oil 1 year.
Another problem today is the very high transport rate.
Best way to get rid of the oil issues, is to switch to green energy.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 22 Apr 2020 07:56

Rishirishi wrote:
So what is your point? battery cars will not competitive ?


3 of my friends have Tesla, one has a Nissan Leaf. I have driven all 4 of the cars and they are MUCH better to drive. Smother, faster and quiet. It is another world. And maintenance is minimal. There is not much that can go wrong. No exhaust, radiator, engine, gearbox, clutch etc. The only issue with electric cars are the cost. But it is rapidly coming down

The VW ID3 will start from below 30 000 dollars, and have an advertised range of 330KM. I have seen the car, and it is awesome. Small from the outside, but very roomy inside. ICE is a gone case. Only a matter of time. It may be 2 years or maybe 5 years. No one knows.



The point is your economics are predicated on Chinese Lithium Ion battery prices. These prices are not viable. Not only is it undesirable economically and strategically, it is unsustainable as they have a life of 8 years before they hold just 50-60% charge. Tesla and others sources its batteries from China, but unlike other manufacturers Tesla does not state capacity of batteries openly. Further, Tesla uses AC motors with rectifiers, which lead to 10-15% loss, as opposed to using brushless DC motors. Consumer production EVs have only been out for 7-8 years and we do not have long term data on battery performance and replacement cost.

I've been in family and friends Teslas, Fisker Karma and Nissan Leaf. The Tesla and Fisker are basically luxury cars, but Tesla's ergonomics on their Model 3 is atrocious. Yes they are quiet just like many hybrids. Fisker went bankrupt due to battery production costs. Elon Musk is a crank and liar, and Tesla will be gone by the end of the decade.

EVs have limited use for delivery vehicles, taxis, and commuter cars where there is a lot stop/start where regenerative braking can be fully utilized. They are not cost competitive for families or anyone driving any longer distances. EVs like the Tesla are for the wealthy and the early adopter. The Nissan leaf is geared toward the commuter.

The VW ID3 is sold primarily in the EU and starts at 30K Euros. Which is more like $33,000-$35,000 is in the US. I don't know about VW's reliability, it is questionable. VW is filing a niche not to lose sales or interest in VW as a company. Most of VW's line for this decade will be hybrids. They know where the future is.

A true hybrid which is essentially an EV with a constant RPM gas engine will not require a complicated transmission. They are very reliable. Have you ever driven a Lexus or Toyota hybrid? Without the hassle of buying infrastructure or time to charge batteries, a large hybrid SUV like the Toyota Highlander will get 35 MPG and in the next couple of years this will be improved to 50 MPG. That's a huge savings until we get to real fuel cells by 2050.

As of today, hybrid vehicles are getting 40-50% better mileage/average than all gasoline vehicles and are cheaper than pure EVs and it will remain so as hybrids improve.

ICE is a gone case. Only a matter of time. It may be 2 years or maybe 5 years. No one knows.

At less than 5% market penetration it is not going to happen even in 10 years. It seems you wish to be the Rahul Gandhi of BRF. :rotfl: :P

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 22 Apr 2020 08:19

Rishirishi wrote:
Bart S wrote:
I am totally clueless regarding commodities and futures trading so excuse the dumb question, but would it make sense for GOI to invest in oil futures to lock in the price for the required amounts over a longer time?


The future price will reflect what the market price will be in the future. The main reason for the low oil price is storage capacity, which has started to fill up. There simply is not any place to send the produced oil to. Storage cost is about USD 0.5 dollars per month (depending on storage type and interest). Hence it will cost about 6 dollars per barrel, for storing oil 1 year.
Another problem today is the very high transport rate.
Best way to get rid of the oil issues, is to switch to green energy.


I doubt GoI would invest in oil futures, but may rather try to book long term contracts, but even then prices are going to stay low for a while.

Green energy? Oil which is refined to fuel is used for trucks, ships, and airplanes. It has a high energy to weight ratio that is well suited for such applications. We have 30-40 years to remain dependent on oil for transportation.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Prasad » 23 Apr 2020 15:24

Tesla will use CATL as well as LG Chem batteries. CATL was mainly due to the high duties on imported batteries. But LG's batteries are better. So not so cut n dried when it comes to cars made in China, by anyone.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Apr 2020 22:36

Prasad wrote:Tesla will use CATL as well as LG Chem batteries. CATL was mainly due to the high duties on imported batteries. But LG's batteries are better. So not so cut n dried when it comes to cars made in China, by anyone.


The duties on CATL are part of the problem, but ultimately all longer range (>200 Km) EVs suffer from actual cost of Li-Ion battery cost which starts $100/KWHr for Chinese batteries. Batteries made in other countries will be more expensive near $150/KWHr. To keep costs manageable, hybrids and more specifically plug-in hybrids with small gasoline engines will be much more economical with great range and less time to charge the battery.

The just introduced 2020 Toyota Prius Prime plug-in hybrid starts at $28K and gets 25 miles (40 Km) on its battery before the gasoline engine is used. Its combined mileage (average) is 133 mpg (56 Km/liter) and has a range of 640 miles (> 1000 Km).

This October, the 2021 Toyota RAV4 Prime plug-in hybrid will get 62 Km on its battery before the gasoline engine. It will do 0-60 in 5.8 sec with an average of 38 Km/liter. These new plug-in hybrids use smaller Li-Ion batteries of 9-12 KWHr capacity lasting 10 years with 150,000 mile warranty.

Demand for oil due to consumer vehicles will drop continuously and by 2030 we should see some viable hydrogen fuel cell vehicles. By then, Tesla will change to fuel cell vehicles or be out of business.
Last edited by Mort Walker on 23 Apr 2020 23:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 23 Apr 2020 22:39

India's domestic production is slowing:

How Much Longer Will Indian Oil Demand Slump?

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 24 Apr 2020 05:45

I don't know about VW's reliability, it is questionable. VW is filing a niche not to lose sales or interest in VW as a company. Most of VW's line for this decade will be hybrids. They know where the future is.



As usual it just shows how little you know. VW is a part of VAG and have brands like Audi, Porsche, Skoda. It is German quality and the largest car manufacturer (neck in neck with Toyota) Their cars ave very well made. They have committed to make 25 models EV models by 2025. ALL their ICE cars will be phased out by 2028 and replaced by EV https://www.volkswagenag.com/en/news/2019/03/VW_Group_JPK_19.html#. They plan to invest 30 billion dollars by 2023

Maybe you should go over to the Germans and teach them economics and engineering :rotfl: :rotfl: :rotfl:

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 24 Apr 2020 08:58

Rishirishi,

Perhaps you should learn reading comprehension first before putting your foot your mouth, but that is not unusual...Read your own link first.
The share of electric vehicles in the Group fleet is to rise to at least 40 percent by 2030.

What about the remaining 60%, will they run on the hot air coming out of your flatulence?

The VW group is going to produce 22 million EVs by 2030. This is the same group which sold over 10 million vehicles in 2019 across all brands, so 22 million EVs in 10 years are a limited number. Don't forget that hybrids are EVs too.

It does NOT say ALL gasoline cars will be phased out by 2028. Your logic is flawed.
Almost 70 new electric models by 2028 – instead of the 50 previously planned

They will do like other auto manufacturers and offer hybrids of gasoline models. Easy to do for a large company.

Volkswagen Group targeting fully CO2-neutral balance by 2050

Which is quite reasonable as we should have fuel cells by then.

VW lied about emissions from their diesel cars, have you conveniently forgotten that? Current management can't be trusted. Further, Toyota's quality is ahead of other auto manufacturers worldwide.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 26 Apr 2020 01:34

Toyota
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/news/toyota-electric-vehicle-development-accelerated/
Toyota is a company that got a very early start on the whole gasoline-electric hybrid boom, made tons of money and then kept on iterating and improving that idea.

As a result, its hybrid vehicles are some of the best in the world, but as the rest of the industry and the public's interest both move in the direction of full electrification, Toyota has to play catch-up.

That's why Toyota has decided to speed up its electrification timeline, according to a report Friday by Reuters. In fact, it plans to get half of its sales from EVs by 2025. That would be a tall order for any company, but Toyota has vast resources, talented engineers and an iron will so we believe it can happen.



Comprehend this :lol: :lol:

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 26 Apr 2020 01:56

^^^That is what I have been saying all along. EV does not mean 100% battery. Toyota is going for hybrid vehicles with small batteries and small gasoline engines even in large vehicles. A small engine at constant RPM to charge a battery system. Toyota is not foolish. Honda, although smaller is doing the same thing.

Anyway, you had to Google for a report that is nearly a year old. The Prius Prime was released this year and gets 130 MPG on combined electric and gas. The RAV4 Prime will get nearly 90 MPG, and Toyota/Lexua will be releasing Prime/h models of their entire lineup. Further, Toyota has been working on hydrogen fuel cells.

This will NOT solve traffic jams and as the economy of India grows, more people will be driving cars that get very high averages that still use gasoline. The demand for oil will not drop, it will stay relatively steady, but grow very slowly and at times decline (pandemics & wars excluded). Your claim of gasoline engine (ICE) being gone in a few years has been debunked from your own links.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 26 Apr 2020 02:25

EV is not Hybrid. It is pure Electric. Gasoline is going to be replaced in cars, trucks, buses bikes etc. It will come fast.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 26 Apr 2020 03:04

Rishirishi wrote:EV is not Hybrid. It is pure Electric. Gasoline is going to be replaced in cars, trucks, buses bikes etc. It will come fast.


Wrong. An EV is one that is powered by electric motors. See the other thread instead of spreading your diarrhea everywhere including this one about oil and natural gas. Gasoline/diesel is going to be used for another decade for surface transportation, not because of any government mandates or subsidies for batteries, but because of the energy to weight ratio.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby nachiket » 28 Apr 2020 00:11

Toyota and Honda seem to have gone a different way from other manufacturers and have put their money into Hydrogen Fuel Cell vehicles (Mirai and Clarity). Toyota even removed the Prius Plug-in hybrid option out of their lineup. Only the regular hybrid is sold now.

As for Hydrogen fuel cell vehicles, 95%of the hydrogen produced today is from natural gas, methane and coal-gassification none of them renewable sources. Plus the passengers are literally sitting on a tank of hydrogen at 10000 psi.

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Re: Oil & Natural Gas: News & Discussion

Postby Mort Walker » 28 Apr 2020 04:33

Charging a 100% battery EV is time consuming and has its own dangers. A fuel cell which will be available at the end of this decade will give you fast fueling, very good mileage/average, and long range. A 100% battery EV lacks this.

The 2020 Prius Prime Plug-in Hybrid EV is available in the US.
https://www.toyota.com/priusprime/

There is also the Toyota 2021 RAV4 Prime which will be introduce in October of this year, and it too is plug-in hybrid.
https://www.toyota.com/upcoming-vehicles/rav4prime/

Toyota will be introducing Prime models of its hybrid lineup going forward.

The hydrogen fuel tank is very safe and is more safe than sitting on a stack of 90 KWHr Lithium Ion battery pack.




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