Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

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Supratik
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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Supratik » 02 Jan 2019 23:32

Tatas may buy Jet and merge it with VIstara.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby rajkumar » 03 Jan 2019 00:25

Supratik wrote:Tatas may buy Jet and merge it with VIstara.


I would advise Tata's to let Jet go to the wall and then pickup the pieces for small change. I don't see Jet being able to pull itself out of this loop.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby ArjunPandit » 03 Jan 2019 00:26

rajkumar wrote:Looks like Jet Airways is in trouble

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/jet-airw ... nance.html

Shares in India's second-largest airline Jet Airways fell five percent Wednesday after the company admitted it had failed to meet debt payments to banks.
The airline hit turbulence last year after failing to report its quarterly earnings or pay its staffers including pilots in August.
Subsequently, chief executive Vinay Dube released the earnings and announced a cost cutting programme amounting to 20 billion rupees ($280 million) over the next two years.
"Payment of interest and principal instalment due to the consortium of Indian Banks on 31st December 2018 has been delayed due to temporary cashflow mismatch," the struggling airline said in a statement.
Jet added that it was in talks with the consortium led by State Bank of India (SBI)…..

Its been sometime they are in trouble. These troubles were known for quite sometime and they chose to "default". Tatas are keen to see him go and merge it vistara

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Vips » 03 Jan 2019 01:48

Jet Airways has approached SBI for Rs 1500 Crores loan. I am at a loss to understand what properties/assets does it have which it can offer as guarantee for the loan? It is already over-leveraged. What gives it the grounds to even approach SBI for a loan? why is it not laughed out of the door by SBI?

The way airline business is right now any business plan that Jet presents is all vapor-ware.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 03 Jan 2019 07:32

Not any less than the annual bailouts of air india though

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Avik » 03 Jan 2019 09:09

Singha- would you mind sharing your thoughts on the recent infra and economic developments in Assam and the NE, post your trip there?

You have a great way of writing and I was wondering if you could pen some thoughts down on developments in Guwahati, Assam and NE

Thank you

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Jan 2019 10:15

What is the cause of Jet downfall ? There were always competitive with good service at competitive rates

Is this due to low cost airline Indigo/GoAir or some other reason ?

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 03 Jan 2019 10:38

Desis want economy at any cost. Soon enough, we may see Indigo seats with bath towels for cushion. The current seats are sooooo thin onlee.

Flew Jet from DEL to COK. There was free WiFi on board. Got a small 'puffs' and a rock solid cupcake that was like 2cm dia by 1.5cm tall as the FSC service. Had to eat dinner once back home :(

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Jan 2019 10:44

Dileep they stopped providing meal few months back to save on cost else Jet used to provide decent food. Now it puffs and cupcakes onleee

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby rajkumar » 03 Jan 2019 17:24

Austin wrote:What is the cause of Jet downfall ? There were always competitive with good service at competitive rates

Is this due to low cost airline Indigo/GoAir or some other reason ?


Austin, Jet's failure will make a classic case study. The reasons for their failure is very simple and is as follows (1) Aged fleet of aircraft so high fuel costs (2) Maintenance, no investment in workshops etc. so maintenance costs are above industry average (3) Hiring of western managers. They are paid more than Indian resources (4) Hiring of western crew...again they cost more than the industry average.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Bart S » 03 Jan 2019 18:59

rajkumar wrote:
Austin wrote:What is the cause of Jet downfall ? There were always competitive with good service at competitive rates

Is this due to low cost airline Indigo/GoAir or some other reason ?


Austin, Jet's failure will make a classic case study. The reasons for their failure is very simple and is as follows (1) Aged fleet of aircraft so high fuel costs (2) Maintenance, no investment in workshops etc. so maintenance costs are above industry average (3) Hiring of western managers. They are paid more than Indian resources (4) Hiring of western crew...again they cost more than the industry average.



In addition to these I think the biggest reason is having a headstrong, stubborn and egotistic head like Naresh Goyal whose maverick style prevented him from taking more rational decisions.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Jan 2019 21:56

It would be sad to see them go no matter the shortcomings as you both have mentioned , We already lost KF

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 03 Jan 2019 21:56

Webinar on 'Regional Transport Aircraft of India'


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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 03 Jan 2019 23:14

Out of the initial lot of "private carriers" only Jet remains, right?

ModiLuft became Spicjet. Sahara merged with Jet. Rest all dead onlee.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby negi » 03 Jan 2019 23:36

Austin wrote:What is the cause of Jet downfall ? There were always competitive with good service at competitive rates

Is this due to low cost airline Indigo/GoAir or some other reason ?

Which Jet are you talking about ? I was a regular flyer Jet was always the uber elite of the Indian operators . Not just air deccan even KF and SpiceJet were cheaper than them only the spoilt brat Air parasite had the gall to charge more than Jet . Their membership program was also a big gimmick you lose acquired miles faster than you acquire them.
Indigo is a true disruptor and despite the rumours of them not doing well I pray that they remain afloat as they are genuinely good.

One of these days when I am in a good mood perhaps I will share my thoughts in detail but for now I am of the view that the only way aviation players can truly sustain in Indian market is by consciously reforming the entire system and processes which are currently man power intensive for no genuine reason . Right from luggage handling , boarding , the flight attendants etc there is a clear case for reducing the number of people in the loop and running a lean ship . Obviously GOI would have to be an active player as well because a lot of the delays at airports are not just airline operator's fault the gobmint players too have to be minimised and things need to be outsourced in true sense as much as possible.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 04 Jan 2019 07:22

Thanks Negi

Talking to some one in the know mentioned Indian airline business runs on 6 % margin and the tax imposed by government and fuel cost make this unsustainable business except for those with deep pockets

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 04 Jan 2019 08:00

How to become a millionnaire?

Be a Billionnaire and then start an Airline.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 04 Jan 2019 09:42

so long as AI exists, their 12% market share skews the market dynamic as cost is not a object there, annual bailouts are the norm.
plus high taxes on aviation fuel as its a "luxury" enjoyed by the "rich" alone.

high fees at airports for parking and other services. I am sure AAI also extracts their lb of flesh.

ultimately the only way to profit is the thin seats, no food, water on request(small cup only) and bus station atmosphere of the US domestic flights.

domestic MRO do they exist for a320 and 737 families? or are they flown to gulf n singapore? domestic could shave some cost. but mainly its high cost of aviation fuel vs cheap in gulf et al, I am told international airlines prefer to refuel heavy in cheaper locations and avoid buying fuel in india.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 04 Jan 2019 10:33

Dileep wrote:How to become a millionnaire?

Be a Billionnaire and then start an Airline.


Dileep looks like all airline in India is running at a loss but just that Jet loss is bigger than Indigo , The write up below provides good insight

Jet Needed Just One Rupee to Avert This Tailspin

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 04 Jan 2019 10:37

Looks like our aviation policy is seriously screwed up with taxes , high fuel prices and hidden cost.

The choice is you run a low cost airline with Low QOS or run a decent airline that cant compete with Low cost ones , what ever you run you end up in loss and the winner is the one who bears the least loss.

Then there is AI that does not have to worry about either they wont go bankrupt as GOI will eternally bail it out with tax payers money. What a mess we are in !

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Neshant » 04 Jan 2019 17:17

How far are we from an efficient battery to power air taxis over short ranges?

Image

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Supratik » 04 Jan 2019 18:36

Aviation fuel price has been recently reduced by about 14%. However, a significant part of the tax is by state govt and like petrol/diesel they see it as cheap money from the rich in socialist mode for them to splurge and refuse to bring it down.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 05 Jan 2019 19:47

IBNlive

Mumbai: An IndiGo Airbus A320neo plane suffered a mid-air engine failure with a "loud bang" on Thursday and the civil aviation ministry has taken serious note of the incident, sources said.

The latest incident involving another Pratt & Whitney engine happened when the aircraft was flying to Kolkata from Chennai on January 3. The plane returned mid-way to Chennai and has been grounded there since then due to damaged engine blades, they said.

While sources said the engine of the aircraft stalled mid-air with a "loud bang", an IndiGo spokesperson said in a statement that its crew took note of a "technical caution" and decided to return the flight to Chennai.

"Ministry has taken serious note (of the incident) and we will review it on Tuesday," Civil Aviation Secretary R N Choubey said in response to a PTI query.

He was asked whether the ministry will direct the aircraft maker Airbus and US-based engine manufacturer Pratt & Whitney to stop deliveries unless all issues are fixed.

"One of the P&W engines of IndiGo neo aircraft operating on Chennai-Kolkata route on January 3 stalled mid-air followed by a loud bang and sparks from it and smoke, leading to heavy vibration," a source said.

The incident forced the A320neo aircraft to return to Chennai under emergency conditions, he added. The number of people on board the flight could not be ascertained.

"This was for the first time that that an A320neo faced multiple problems - smoke, heavy vibration, loud bang and engine stalled - in one single flight," the source added

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 05 Jan 2019 19:48

sooner or later by the law of murphy, someone is going to die from these flawed engines. its a economic disaster for whoever uses them in bulk which fortunately is not even indigo.

wiki
By September 2018, the A320neo's PW1100Gs were experiencing increasing engine vibrations, sometimes before 1,000 flight hours and mostly at high power settings in the climb phase, requiring an early engine change. Lufthansa's A320neos were grounded 254 days since first delivery, 13 times worse than for its A320ceos, 78% of the time due to engine issues as 14 unplanned engine changes were made: its A320neos utilization is half of its A320ceos. By the end of November, Airbus plans to explain the root cause and give an in-depth analysis by year-end.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 05 Jan 2019 20:07

The GTF technology is turning out to be unreliable and they will be maintenance heavy compared to High Bypass engine like LEAP which so far has been reliable.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Vips » 05 Jan 2019 20:57

Indian Public Sector Banks are run by a bunch of morons.

India's debt-laden Jet Airways is close to reaching a deal with State Bank of India for a fresh loan of Rs 1,500 crore ($215 million) to meet its working capital needs, two sources aware of the matter told Reuters.

The airline has scheduled a meeting on Jan. 8 with its vendors and lessors, many of whom are getting increasingly concerned over non-payment of dues, and officials from State Bank of India (SBI) to discuss the debt restructuring plan, the first source with direct knowledge said.

The bankers are being called to the meeting to reassure the creditors, some of whom are expected to come to India from overseas, that Jet is working toward securing funding and has a repayment plan which it will share with them, said the first source.

Jet, India's biggest full-service carrier by market share, owes money to pilots, lessors, banks and vendors. Its problems have been exacerbated by higher oil prices and intense pricing competition in the domestic market.

The airline, part owned by Etihad Airways, was in talks with the Abu Dhabi-based carrier to infuse more equity, but any money would be conditional on Jet's founder Naresh Goyal ceding control, sources have told Reuters.

Lessors have already forced the airline to ground at least four of its new fuel-efficient Boeing 737 MAX aircraft over non-payment of dues, the first source said, adding more planes could be grounded if lessors are unconvinced by the plan Jet presents next week.

Jet did not respond to various Reuters queries for this article but late on Friday, after the story was published, a company spokesman said none of its 737 MAX planes have been grounded.

SBI did not respond to a request for comment.

Jet has a total of 124 aircraft, the vast majority of which are leased.

PAYMENT DEFAULTS
The airline on Tuesday said it had defaulted on debt payment to a consortium of Indian banks, led by SBI, prompting ratings agency ICRA to downgrade the carrier and send its shares sharply lower.

SBI, which has an exposure to Jet of about 16 billion rupees, has in principle agreed to lend another 15 billion rupees, the second Mumbai-based source said, adding this is subject to the bank satisfactorily completing a forensic audit of the airline's books - a process that started in December.

SBI is discussing securitising part of the sales of Jet's tickets against subsequent loans, the Mumbai-based source said, adding it will not
be able to securitise the entire amount.

"The debt will give the airline some money for its operational needs but it will not solve the long term problem," said the first source. India's aviation watchdog, the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA) has asked to meet Jet's CEO on Jan. 7 to get an update on its financial state and fund-raising plans to ensure non-payment of pilot salaries and other dues is not having an impact on safety, the first source said.

The DGCA did not respond to a request for comment. The carrier is also late on salary payments to its employees for the month of December, the first source said.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby chetak » 05 Jan 2019 21:56

Austin wrote:
Dileep wrote:How to become a millionnaire?

Be a Billionnaire and then start an Airline.


Dileep looks like all airline in India is running at a loss but just that Jet loss is bigger than Indigo , The write up below provides good insight

Jet Needed Just One Rupee to Avert This Tailspin


these companies are the benami depositories of shady money from the usual sources like the mafia, politics and construction.

jets entry into the US was held up for many long years because the jet management couldn't simply sweet talk their way into the US as the US authorities had serious concerns regarding their opaque funding.

each airline in India has its own serious set of politico backers who have parked their ill gotten gains. KFA did and some airlines have benami arab backers with actual holdings far beyond what is permitted by Indian law.

if a certain party in the south had been in power and not enmeshed itself in corruption cases on a national scale, spicejet would never have been sold.

BTW, jet was always very strongly rumored to have paki based funding by you know who and that seems to have been the major issue for the US. The arabs came in, displacing you know who, during the tenure of the last govt and jet has, from the very beginning, a rather high percentage of minority employees.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Vips » 05 Jan 2019 22:14

IndiGo receives slots to start London operations in March 2019.

We have all heard rumours that IndiGo will launch flights to London Gatwick with a fuel stop, on the A321neo. The stop was touted to be Istanbul but later on, Baku was rumoured to be the one. IndiGo signed their first codeshare agreement with Turkish Airlines in the fag end of 2018. That revealed IndiGo’s plan to launch flights to Istanbul. But none of the information said anything about terminating the flights at Istanbul or continuing to London.

Now, in a new court filing that has come to light thanks to the ongoing tussle between Delta/Virgin Atlantic/KLM/Air France and JetBlue, there is new information that shows IndiGo has confirmed slots at London Gatwick, to operate via Baku. We don’t know yet whether Baku will be a technical stop or IndiGo will have fifth freedom rights. IndiGo will operate a 222-seater A321neo on that route.

IndiGo’s slots will be active from March 31, 2019, and indicate an evening arrival and departure from London Gatwick.

IndiGo has assigned flight numbers 1 and 2, their flagship numbers, to the London Gatwick service. It seems IndiGo will have to keep their famed ramps ready, given they will have to turn around the aircraft in one-hour flat. That means, open doors, open cargo doors, unload passengers and luggage and load up fresh one, and get out of the gate. With some practice, IndiGo should be able to do it.

Looking at the arrival time at LGW, I guess the flight will have an afternoon departure from Delhi. Air India (AI 111), Jet Airways ( 9w 122) and Virgin Atlantic (VS 301) depart from Delhi in the afternoon and arrive at London Heathrow between 17:40 and 18:55. (Considering the heavy competition and its one stop flight Indigo will need to price its one-way london tickets at least Rs 10-15,000 lower to be competitive) Corresponding return flights arrive at Delhi in the morning between 10:25 to 11:20.
Last edited by Vips on 05 Jan 2019 22:43, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 05 Jan 2019 22:31

I guess they would have chosen the LEAP(CFM) option for A321 neo :mrgreen:

CEO means “Current Engine Option” with CFM-56 and 2 others.
NEO means “New Engine Option” with CFMI-1A or P&W 1100G.
The NEO has greater range, payload and fuel economy and bigger engine cowl.

--
personally why would I fly in a 3+3 narrow body to london from blr?
all I see are cons except quicker boarding time.
- no real advantage in speed
- 1 technical halt in baku azerbaijan vs 1 better halt in abu dhabi/dubai to watch cartoons/shop/ogle the east EU beauteous staff .. turkiye is probably ok as turkish airline is a giant and istanbul has swank airport catering to millions of tourists
- higher roof and bigger luggage cabins on a typical 787/777/350/330
- more toilets so better chance of snagging one that is not wet and dirty
- bigger galley for muh grub and alcohol
- the super thin japanese tea room type indigo seat cushions ugh..insufferable even for a 4 hr to singapore . dilli london is 9 hrs....will need to use my jar of tiger balm and run it all over my spine, coccyx and aching butt :((
- room for a better entertainment system

the 6 hr coast to coast flights on some narrowbody in the US I have done twice .... newark to san diego and vegas to providence iic. not nice at all even red eye ones.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Vips » 05 Jan 2019 22:47

Not to forget that Indigo will charge at least Rs 400 to Rs 500 for offering a 'soaked in hot water Maggie noodles' to be eaten from the OEM plastic can and i cant believe there are suckers who buy and eat this during a 2 hour flight :D

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby darshhan » 06 Jan 2019 00:49

Vips wrote:Not to forget that Indigo will charge at least Rs 400 to Rs 500 for offering a 'soaked in hot water Maggie noodles' to be eaten from the OEM plastic can and i cant believe there are suckers who buy and eat this during a 2 hour flight :D


I got a rule. once I enter an airport I don't eat anything i.e. until I exit the destination airport. Totally avoid shitty overpriced food. The only exception is when meals are included in the ticket price like in Air India.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby manish » 06 Jan 2019 11:43

Singha wrote:domestic MRO do they exist for a320 and 737 families? or are they flown to gulf n singapore? domestic could shave some cost. but mainly its high cost of aviation fuel vs cheap in gulf et al, I am told international airlines prefer to refuel heavy in cheaper locations and avoid buying fuel in india.

Legacy players like AI and Jet have their own aircraft MRO facilities so it's mainly the rest who rely on 3rd party MROs.

India of course has 3rd party MROs that work on A320/B737. However, we only have facilities for airframe MRO and not for engines, which get parcelled off to SIN or any other place overseas which has the facilities for the given model.

In the airframe MRO market, it's pretty much a 2-horse race. There's GMR Aero Technic at Hyderabad and AirWorks at Hosur. The GMR facility is quite modern and is the market leader domestically by quite some distance. IndiGo for example used to fly overseas before they shifted fully to Hyderabad, which also has the advantage of being located inside their 3rd biggest operating hub.

As far as fuel is concerned, domestic taxes don't apply on sales to international airlines. However since ATF is yet to come under GST, it's the domestic airlines who often look at arbitrage opportunities between different domestic airports for with different VAT rates on fuel.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 06 Jan 2019 12:26

Singha wrote:I guess they would have chosen the LEAP(CFM) option for A321 neo :mrgreen:

CEO means “Current Engine Option” with CFM-56 and 2 others.
NEO means “New Engine Option” with CFMI-1A or P&W 1100G.
The NEO has greater range, payload and fuel economy and bigger engine cowl.


I mean the problem is only with GTF engine for A321NEO and some of the indian operator have chosen the P&W engine the one using LEAP are having no issues.

GTF is maintenance heavy compared to Low Maintenance High ByPass Engine like LEAP is what I read , So one one can clarify if True or other wise

--
personally why would I fly in a 3+3 narrow body to london from blr?
all I see are cons except quicker boarding time.
- no real advantage in speed
- 1 technical halt in baku azerbaijan vs 1 better halt in abu dhabi/dubai to watch cartoons/shop/ogle the east EU beauteous staff .. turkiye is probably ok as turkish airline is a giant and istanbul has swank airport catering to millions of tourists
- higher roof and bigger luggage cabins on a typical 787/777/350/330
- more toilets so better chance of snagging one that is not wet and dirty
- bigger galley for muh grub and alcohol
- the super thin japanese tea room type indigo seat cushions ugh..insufferable even for a 4 hr to singapore . dilli london is 9 hrs....will need to use my jar of tiger balm and run it all over my spine, coccyx and aching butt :((
- room for a better entertainment system

the 6 hr coast to coast flights on some narrowbody in the US I have done twice .... newark to san diego and vegas to providence iic. not nice at all even red eye ones.


Having flown on AI 320NEO it is much comfortable compared to B737-800 series in 3+3 configuration , Beyond that it may just be the cost , if it is attractive sitting inside a 321NEO for 6 hrs would be just about OK ....had this been a B737-800 or MAX i would have said no to any one wishing to fly

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 06 Jan 2019 13:37

Indigo N/A N/A at Chennai on Jan 3rd 2019, engine shut down in flight

https://www.aeroinside.com/item/12569/i ... -in-flight


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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 06 Jan 2019 14:17

Max 8 PR , says 14 % more fuel effecient than late model B 737-800

MAX efficiency, MAX reliability, MAX passenger appeal - Boeing's new 737 MAX



BOEING 737 MAX 8 TUI Fly COCKPIT VIEW from AMSTERDAM to ROTTERDAM

Last edited by Austin on 06 Jan 2019 14:36, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Jan 2019 14:25

a punjabi eatery has opened on the verandah outside BIAL recently and doing roaring business as the hungry troops flying in via indigo and other LCCs want something to eat before the long taxi rides home. its also cheaper to get a full meal in when flying out if you can spare the time.
we tried keema bun, non veg thali, biryani etc and it was ok. price was around 250-300 a plate but portions big and genuine cooked food not the infamous Indigo noodles.
one can buy stuff like juice,cake,puffs from outside the night before going to airport preferably and use that onboard. even airport teminal food when packed is a better option.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Jan 2019 14:31

i had no idea hosur had a MRO with a full airport until i read the post above


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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby manish » 06 Jan 2019 15:25

Singha wrote:i had no idea hosur had a MRO with a full airport until i read the post above

There were talks of this moving out to a commercially operating airport - economics are better for the customers.

This is a tough industry to operate in. Just like FDA has the family jewels of upstart emerging market pharma upstarts tightly squeezed, here the aviation regulators of EU and Amreeka indirectly control who gets to come on the dancefloor.

Meanwhile, check out AI's MRO ops. They could have been a real player if they had leveraged their assets well. I am told something like 19 hangars across the county belong to them including a fancy wide-body capable one built by Boeing for them at Nagpur. But their 3rd party business market share must be almost non-existent except for the occasional photo op.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 Jan 2019 20:46

AI has massive facilities in mumbai for sure. like any large PSU, they enjoy the prime real estate based on history of being a monopoly and govt kindness.

HAL thinks only they should be allowed to build aircraft in india and nobody else should be top level integrator.


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