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Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

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Austin
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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 30 Mar 2017 13:47

^^ I think if GOI tells pvt airlines which aircraft they should buy then this would go straight to the court.

Else Pvt Airlines would ask GOI to subsidise them in many ways and if they go in a loss they would blame GOI for forcing them to buy A or B types manuf by say HAL.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby kmkraoind » 30 Mar 2017 14:41

Image

Its a great Hub-n-Spoke model, but they need to unlock City airports for this, i.e. HAL Airport in Bangalore, if not. transit time and waiting time nullifies any time savings.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby JayS » 30 Mar 2017 14:44

Austin wrote:^^ I think if GOI tells pvt airlines which aircraft they should buy then this would go straight to the court.

Else Pvt Airlines would ask GOI to subsidise them in many ways and if they go in a loss they would blame GOI for forcing them to buy A or B types manuf by say HAL.


GOI doesn't have to tell Airlines which aircraft to buy, not the one by HAL atleast at this stage. GOI can simply give tax breaks for those who choose to buy the aircraft which is Assembled in India, or has min x% parts sourced from India under MII. Or GOI can abolish taxes on parts manufactured in India while keeping the taxes on the imported stuff, or provide softloans for buying such aircrafts which are assembled in India or has x% of components sourced in India. There are n number of ways to nudge the "free market" in certain direction. Also its a win-win situation for the Airlines. They basically would pay same or even less for the same Boeing or Airbus aircrafts they are anyway buying while having a better OEM support and MRO facilities in India itself, reducing their operational costs. Even OEMs could leverage lesser manufacturing costs in India in long run. If Airbus Boeing can go to China, they can come to India as well. We have a $200B candy to show them.

Govt subsidizes all sorts of businesses across all the segments in myriads of ways. This is no different. Its foolish to hand over $200B without trying to take maximum benefit out of it.

As such Aerospace/Defense OEMs receive considerable support from their governments. If GOI does it for HAL if and when HAL has its own Aircraft, we are not playing dirty by any means.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 30 Mar 2017 15:02

^^ What you say is possible in theory , In real life its hard to implement , There is no gurantee HAL manufactured aircraft would be cheaper than say what Airbus or Boeing produces in their factory ( I am not even counting about quality and delivery schedules ) .... GOI will also have to make provision Bank Gurantees/Long term Credits to the private players to buy this something Boeing/Airbus have establised for decades with banks in the business

HAL manufacturing and delivery schedule is lot to be desired , No private airline would want to bet their business on HAL delivery schedule.

Let HAL first start by making new 19 and 50 seater and see how they can deliver on that , May be just build ATR in India to start with and sell to Indian Players if there is enough market for such class.

Let HAL make small increment progress and get taste of success or failure while doing that may be then they/GOI can think about throwing bigger bets.

GOI has been faithfully ordering Airbus for IA and Boeing for AI dividing the orders between these two players to keep both happy ( not sure why ) , some civil minister take their cuts and the deal is done.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby JayS » 30 Mar 2017 15:27

Austin wrote:^^ What you say is possible in theory , In real life its hard to implement , There is no gurantee HAL manufactured aircraft would be cheaper than say what Airbus or Boeing produces in their factory ( I am not even counting about quality and delivery schedules ) .... GOI will also have to make provision Bank Gurantees/Long term Credits to the private players to buy this something Boeing/Airbus have establised for decades with banks in the business

HAL manufacturing and delivery schedule is lot to be desired , No private airline would want to bet their business on HAL delivery schedule.

Let HAL first start by making new 19 and 50 seater and see how they can deliver on that , May be just build ATR in India to start with and sell to Indian Players if there is enough market for such class.

Let HAL make small increment progress and get taste of success or failure while doing that may be then they/GOI can think about throwing bigger bets.

GOI has been faithfully ordering Airbus for IA and Boeing for AI dividing the orders between these two players to keep both happy ( not sure why ) , some civil minister take their cuts and the deal is done.


Lets leave HAL out for now. I don't know how it come in the discussion. Frankly I don't even want HAL to make civilian aircrafts. I proposed GOI should milk the Airbus A320 and Boeing B737 deals for MII. Make Airbus/Boeing to make airplanes in India.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Indranil » 30 Mar 2017 22:28

Airvan 10 is finally getting certified in second quarter. It will be a good candidate for UDAAN, along with civilian Do-228 (from HAL/Tata), PC-12 NG (from Tata). I hope they take up Airvan-18 and NM-5 now.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 31 Mar 2017 03:20

There are many options for india.

1 Get help from companies like SAAB to produce their SAAB 2000 (or create an improved version)
2 partner with the likes of Embraer or Bombardier (would get a better deal then Boeing or Airbus)
3 Create a partnership with the Ruskies, but i am not sure it will work out.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2017 09:29

tandav wrote:
Singha wrote:Cheen has understood well what are the high value strategic resources & products that will drive trade balances and diplomacy in future
- POL - it is chummy with both middle east and CAR states. long term oil deal with iran. gas and crude pipes via kazakhstan are in place.
- shipping and railways - it is a major world power in both - multiple OEM
- power generation eqpt - major world power
- consumer and industrial electronics - major world power
- civil aviation - comac c919 and c929, Y20 etc are coming along
- defence products - a large exporter, highest number of new projects ongoing
- hacking and industrial espionage - major world power
- food security - good domestic productivity and tight trading links with east asian food exporters and western hemisphere meat exporters
- software - a protected home market ensures that global sized giants like alibaba, tencent, sina, weibo etc have grown up and now looking to invest abroad
- basic healthcare & HDI markers - better at rural level than india as our money goes to subsidies, bags of rice, saree, cycles etc.


This is exactly why I admire the Mandarins of Qin. They have steadfastly improved and built on their strengths and today command respect among large swathes of the world which includes their home populations.


Sir, it is not specific to cheen. This road was followed by all of cheen's yellow brethren in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Each one of them targeted industries of high value, supported and protected by government to compete against the world and win.

That said, Singhaji's exhaustive list shows the scale of what the chinis are doing. They are competive or will be competitive in many more fields than the Japanese and Koreans. That is a function of population and the leverage that comes with a large population. We have the same size of population and the same potential leverage.

For those who say that India is not a commie dictatorship like cheen so we cannot do the same to support our industries -- Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all democracies with first world legal systems.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Kashi » 31 Mar 2017 10:04

chola wrote:For those who say that India is not a commie dictatorship like cheen so we cannot do the same to support our industries -- Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all democracies with first world legal systems.


South Korea was a dictatorship from 1961 to 1987 before first direct presidential elections were held. The person credited with propelling them into an Asian powerhouse from a non-descript, backward country divided and annihilated by war and colonisation was Park Chung Hee (the father of the recently impeached SoKo president), who ruled with an iron fist from 1961-1979, before he was assassinated. He remains the most popular SoKo president ever.

Taiwan was a KMT dictatorship until 1990-91. Mandarin was enforced and Taiwanese language forbidden from being taught in schools and children were punished for doing so. Their first direct presidential election did not happen till 1996.

The legacy of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore is well known.

This is not to say that these countries would not have prospered had it not been for dictatorship or if they had been democracies from the very beginning. After all Japan was a democracy all this while, even if they had the same ruling party, the LDP, for the entire period after the war and well into 1990s.

On the other side we have dictatorship didn't seem to do much for Bakis, Bangladeshis and a host of other countries from South America to Vietnam, except PRC.

It's the leadership that matters. After all NoKos who are ethnically the same as SoKos, followed a very different trajectory. Ditto for East and West Germany.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 31 Mar 2017 14:42

HAL has to study the civilian market first and put up some numbers on who would be their prospective serious buyers no matter what type of aircraft we built be it 18 seater or 50/100 seater.

A serious study of market is needed and also HAL/NAL and other org ability to develop such aircraft what they can do what they cant what needs to be imported , who are the tier 1 , 2 3 suppliers in India and abroad that can supply components to HAL , If any consultancy is needed for the program.

Once they do such studies they need to put this up and do some brain storming if they should and can proceed ahead with the program.

Civilian Aircraft makers in the game have these kind of study rigorously done and presented in Civil Aviation Conference and at various air shows Civilian Aircraft markets are very highly competitive and time sensitive loose a one year or two and you can have a project that does not even get a break even or can just make marginal profit.

All I have seen since 1998 Air Show are PPT that shows we need a 50 and 100 seater and every airshow it progress with some little more information and then it goes off the air only arrive at next aero india.

Nothing serious has been done that would give confidence about the project other then chal lets make a 50 and 100 seater we would need xyz number by 2030 in Indian civil market.

I am afraid with such casual approach this will either end up as Saras demonstrator project or IAF will have to bite the bullet and buy it.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby chola » 31 Mar 2017 18:00

Kashi wrote:
chola wrote:For those who say that India is not a commie dictatorship like cheen so we cannot do the same to support our industries -- Japan, South Korea and Taiwan are all democracies with first world legal systems.


South Korea was a dictatorship from 1961 to 1987 before first direct presidential elections were held. The person credited with propelling them into an Asian powerhouse from a non-descript, backward country divided and annihilated by war and colonisation was Park Chung Hee (the father of the recently impeached SoKo president), who ruled with an iron fist from 1961-1979, before he was assassinated. He remains the most popular SoKo president ever.

Taiwan was a KMT dictatorship until 1990-91. Mandarin was enforced and Taiwanese language forbidden from being taught in schools and children were punished for doing so. Their first direct presidential election did not happen till 1996.

The legacy of Lee Kuan Yew in Singapore is well known.

This is not to say that these countries would not have prospered had it not been for dictatorship or if they had been democracies from the very beginning. After all Japan was a democracy all this while, even if they had the same ruling party, the LDP, for the entire period after the war and well into 1990s.

On the other side we have dictatorship didn't seem to do much for Bakis, Bangladeshis and a host of other countries from South America to Vietnam, except PRC.

It's the leadership that matters. After all NoKos who are ethnically the same as SoKos, followed a very different trajectory. Ditto for East and West Germany.



I understand the point on Taiwan and SKorea being former dictatorships but their ascendency did not weaken when they became democracies.

In fact, South Korea's real assault on the world's markets came after the death of Park. Taiwanese grip on the global IT hardware supply chain actually expanded after 1996 though much of that is cloaked by Taiwanese companies operating in the PRC. In fact, most of China's rise in the computer/cellphone/electronics space is a function of Taiwanese companies who make most of the profits while the PRC takes the tariff hits. Apple might make the Iphone in China but it is not made by a Chinese company.

Japan, as you stated, was always a democracy.

Democracies inevitably do better than dictatorships. As you pointed out, Koreans and Germans prove this beyond doubt. Same exact races two very different results. We see this with Pakistan and India. For all the wheat-eating, wheat-colored gori chestbeating of the Punjabi TFTA, they are the same phenotype as almost everyone else in the INDIAN subcontinent (with only the mongoloid NE population being the great outlier.). Dictatorship created a failed state in TSP and a rising Superpower in Bharat proper.

Now did dictatorship work in cheen? Yes, it worked better only when compared to the other dictatorships (because its dictators after Mao were saner.) But compared to its ethnic neighbors, it failed miserably with its per capita income only a small fraction of Taiwan's, SK's and Japan's.

And cheen had the huge advantage of capital poured in from ethnically similar but capitalistic democratic free societies on its rim. Through their FDI, PRC benefited from free nations even itself was a dictatorship.

Finally, we must differentiate between rational and irrational dictatorships. Singapore, and the PRC to a great extent, is a rational dictatorship that understands the market. The TSP is not.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby putnanja » 31 Mar 2017 18:03

JayS wrote:
Austin wrote:^^ I think if GOI tells pvt airlines which aircraft they should buy then this would go straight to the court.

Else Pvt Airlines would ask GOI to subsidise them in many ways and if they go in a loss they would blame GOI for forcing them to buy A or B types manuf by say HAL.


GOI doesn't have to tell Airlines which aircraft to buy, not the one by HAL atleast at this stage. GOI can simply give tax breaks for those who choose to buy the aircraft which is Assembled in India, or has min x% parts sourced from India under MII. Or GOI can abolish taxes on parts manufactured in India while keeping the taxes on the imported stuff, or provide softloans for buying such aircrafts which are assembled in India or has x% of components sourced in India. There are n number of ways to nudge the "free market" in certain direction. Also its a win-win situation for the Airlines. They basically would pay same or even less for the same Boeing or Airbus aircrafts they are anyway buying while having a better OEM support and MRO facilities in India itself, reducing their operational costs. Even OEMs could leverage lesser manufacturing costs in India in long run. If Airbus Boeing can go to China, they can come to India as well. We have a $200B candy to show them.

Govt subsidizes all sorts of businesses across all the segments in myriads of ways. This is no different. Its foolish to hand over $200B without trying to take maximum benefit out of it.

As such Aerospace/Defense OEMs receive considerable support from their governments. If GOI does it for HAL if and when HAL has its own Aircraft, we are not playing dirty by any means.



For private companies, you cannot give preferential tax breaks just because they have more indigenous content, as it will be against WTO rules. Its same for almost all other countries many of which have more aircraft than India. India can do that only for Air India as its government owned. Thats what China does, there are multiple airlines in China which are all government owned. They give their requirement to the Chinese government and the govt negotiates in bulk, and also favours one manufacturer or other for various diplomatic & other reasons too, not just on basis of cost. as per WTO rules, only in government procurement can governments prefer who they want. In a recent solar panel case, India lost case at WTO as they were calling for bids from private companies with some minimum indigenous content. So they changed it now so that PSUs which are going for solar energy will use only indigenous ones. Most of the middle-east carriers, Japan, Indonesia, etc have as many or more civil aircraft as India.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby arshyam » 31 Mar 2017 19:44

Austin saar, why are you bringing in HAL in this discussion? At least I never mentioned HAL in the context of making civil airlines like Airbus and Boeing. My thoughts are more about getting Airbus/Boeing themselves to invest in MII and build significant portions of 737/320 airframes, with the caveat that we have a large requirement (their own studies show that). But till we do some arm-twisting (aircraft makers or airlines), no one is going to play nice and help the country.

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Re: Indian Economy News & Discussion - Aug 26 2015

Postby amritk » 01 Apr 2017 09:49

tandav wrote:Thanks for the input AmritK would appreciate more such to tweak the concept I have in mind.


You may want to study manned autonomous and multi rotor concepts, such as the one from Ehang.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby tandav » 01 Apr 2017 20:35

I was looking more at ICON A5 a small aviation startup manufacturing a seaplane. Though this is very expensive $250000 per piece




Some other concepts


The ehang is a great concept but has very low legs since Battery technology has lower energy density than fossil fuels. My research seemed to suggest that volvo bus carrying something like 40 people is powered by 300 KW motor and travels at a max potential speed of 150 kmph (depending on road). A 40 person turbo prop requires 2000 KW motor and travels at 500 kmph. Now it is to be noted that most of the motor power goes towards overcoming drag and scales to the v^3. So technically the volvo bus will need 8100 KW to fly at 500 since it is not aerodynamic.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Austin » 02 Apr 2017 00:22

arshyam wrote:Austin saar, why are you bringing in HAL in this discussion? At least I never mentioned HAL in the context of making civil airlines like Airbus and Boeing. My thoughts are more about getting Airbus/Boeing themselves to invest in MII and build significant portions of 737/320 airframes, with the caveat that we have a large requirement (their own studies show that). But till we do some arm-twisting (aircraft makers or airlines), no one is going to play nice and help the country.


By that you mean Boeing/Airbus setup some kind of plant in India and build these frames here ? Even if they have the intention to do such a thing they will have to check the economic benfit to build such plant the infra and how much such would cost , they will any way transfer such expense to end customer and keep their profit book fat as possible. Manpower cost is fraction of the build cost.

I dont see HAL will not be in such picture , They have their spider web all over GOI and the only thing that goes to Pvt entity in India is when they feel they cannot do it due to under capacity , they after all pay Fat Cheque to GOI YOY as profit so GOI has little incentive to do it unless they dont have a choice

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby arvin » 02 Apr 2017 15:52

Consultancy invitation for Kerala's 5th airport and to be located in ecologically sensitive Pathanamthitta district.

http://www.ksidc.org/userfiles/eoi_gree ... rimala.pdf

The district is a host to Asia's biggest and the world's second largest Christian convention (Maraman Convention).

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby arshyam » 13 Apr 2017 22:24

Interesting. Only domestic connection is to MAA, but has 5 international connections..

Tiruchi airport soars high in international traffic - The Hindu
The fast-growing Tiruchi international airport has witnessed a rise in the movement of international and domestic passengers in the 2016-17 fiscal when compared to the previous year.

This is despite temporary suspension of flight services at different periods of time in the previous fiscal by Sri Lankan Airlines. This non-metro airport with more overseas flight operations than domestic services totally handled over 13.59 lakh passengers – both international and domestic – in the 2016-17 financial year.

Overseas passengers

The figures of overseas passengers alone exceeded a little over 11.9 lakh. The number of domestic passengers handled at the airport was more than 1.69 lakh.

Airport authorities here said the overall passenger traffic growth recorded was 5.58% in 2016-17 fiscal which was above the previous year when the total international and domestic passengers handled was 12.97 lakh.

Tiruchi has at present direct connectivity to select overseas destinations – Colombo, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai and Sharjah - with persistent demands from travellers to operate services to more destinations especially to the West Asian region.

Kuala Lumpur-bound Air Asia continued to remain top in operating more services from Tiruchi when compared to Air India Express, Sri Lankan Airlines, Tiger Airways and Malindo Air.

Airport sources feel that the international passengers’ movement from and to Tiruchi would have been more but for the sudden temporary suspension of services by Sri Lankan Airlines during the previous fiscal.

Sri Lankan Airlines which operates daily flights twice from Tiruchi to Colombo temporarily cancelled one of its services for nearly three months in the last fiscal.

The 2016-17 fiscal saw the introduction of a new service to Sharjah from Tiruchi by Air India Express which added to the international passenger traffic growth.

However, the much awaited new overseas service to Abu Dhabi from Tiruchi by the Jet Airways failed to take off from February despite bookings having been made by travellers.

Though the airline had announced the date of launch of the Abu Dhabi service, it put off the service much to the disappointment of the travellers seeking flight services to cover more West Asian destinations from Tiruchi.

On the domestic front, there has been no direct connectivity to any other city barring Chennai notwithstanding demands for introduction of flight services to Mumbai and Bengaluru from Tiruchi.

Airport sources said they had expected a 10 % growth in overall passenger traffic in 2016-17 over the previous year. However, that figure could not be achieved.

Per flight stats, there are 6 flights a day to Kuala Lampur - practically a bus service!

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 18 Apr 2017 14:30

jet airways is again slowly breaking away from Etihad which wants to start a local airline here with 100 planes.
it has tied up with AF, KLM, Delta and Virgin for codeshare agreements india to usa.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Rishi_Tri » 18 Apr 2017 22:39

Its good that Udan services are being planned for new destinations across the country.

But dont quite agree with how we are trying to go about i.e., without seriously upgrading the facilities at those airports. Had we channeled even 5k-10k over one to two years in upgrading / creating new facilities, would have led to employment generation, created huge buzz and in turn the traffic. Alas not to be.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby tandav » 05 May 2017 23:57

Data point from China. The COMAC C919 equivalent to the Boeing 737-800 or Airbus A320 makes its maiden flight. A beautiful looking bird I must say.

http://money.cnn.com/2017/05/05/news/china-comac-c919-takes-flight/index.html

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Gagan » 06 May 2017 00:14

Chinese C-919 takes flight. It looks like an A-320 copy, but look at the video carefully, from the nose wheel camera, to the control center - China is super image conscious and is targeting all the upper crust airlines.
Contrast this with the poor image India sends out.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3GPtF8uektw

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Gagan » 06 May 2017 00:16

So they used Airbus's money to set up the ancillary industries and the entire network of suppliers. Then used this supply chain to create their own design. Even their design has elements form the A-320.

Wah re, shamelessly Xeroxing - but successful

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby chola » 06 May 2017 00:33

Gagan wrote:So they used Airbus's money to set up the ancillary industries and the entire network of suppliers. Then used this supply chain to create their own design. Even their design has elements form the A-320.

Wah re, shamelessly Xeroxing - but successful


Cheat, lie, steal. Beg, bribe and browbeat. No quarter given to conscience or pride.

Single tracked mind to close the gap between it and the West and Japan.

That said, engine is from EU(LEAP from CFM), much of avionics are from Rockwell and the like and so will much of the internal furnishing. Pretty much only airframe is chini.

Not knocking them. I would be happy as a baboon in heat if we can finish off a project of this scale.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Gagan » 06 May 2017 00:49

The airframe is a major major thing. They probably used help form all over for that too, had to wind tunnel test it, stress test it, safety features etc etc. It is a lot of work.
But the job is supremely easy if you are assembling one of those within your country.

That being said, their 15-20 lead in economy wrt india, and their doing these variety of projects - a much wider spectrum of projects than India has lead them to be very rapidly industralized

When the chinese were embracing market capitalism, India's leaders were giving the indian citizens sermons on socialism, playing caste politics etc.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Rishirishi » 06 May 2017 03:22

chola wrote:
Gagan wrote:So they used Airbus's money to set up the ancillary industries and the entire network of suppliers. Then used this supply chain to create their own design. Even their design has elements form the A-320.

Wah re, shamelessly Xeroxing - but successful


Cheat, lie, steal. Beg, bribe and browbeat. No quarter given to conscience or pride.

Single tracked mind to close the gap between it and the West and Japan.

That said, engine is from EU(LEAP from CFM), much of avionics are from Rockwell and the like and so will much of the internal furnishing. Pretty much only airframe is chini.

Not knocking them. I would be happy as a baboon in heat if we can finish off a project of this scale.



It a great strategy. Slowly they can replace the parts with Chinease ones. India needs to learn.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Dileep » 06 May 2017 09:33

HCL had set up a unit in Chengdu which designed LRUs for C919.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 May 2017 12:13

Even a new wing for a moder jetliner is a big thing. Those curvy 787 and 350 new age wings cost 1b to design and test i heard

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Neela » 06 May 2017 12:58

Right. Only one remaining component then for China. The engines.
They will get there in in 10-15 years. They re investing $15 Billion on it.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby manjgu » 06 May 2017 13:06

DId GOI announce fare slabs depending on journey time..why is Delhi-Leh flight ( 1+ hr costing excess of 10K?). any idea?

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 06 May 2017 15:42

thats always been a puzzle for me . demand is not a problem to leh.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Neshant » 07 May 2017 01:43

Rishirishi wrote:It a great strategy. Slowly they can replace the parts with Chinease ones. India needs to learn.


Congratulations to the Chinese on their great achievement.

Their C919 will compete in the single asile aircraft segment against one of Boeing's best selling products the 737 and Airbus' A320.

They also have to compete in the single asile market against 2nd tier plane manufacturers like Canada's Bombardier and Brazil's Embraer.

The good news here is all this competition should drive down costs. Supposedly the C919 will cost half of what Boeing & Airbus charges.


Next up, they plan to build a plane to compete in the double asile market against Boeing's 777 and Airbus' A340 with design consultation coming from Russia.

China has a large captive domestic market to get initial sales orders moving - so no problems there.

India is way behind completely dependent on foreign purchases of planes and no road map to develop anything.

We are buying load of foreign military planes at great costs and subsidizing aerospace R&D overseas while gaining little/nothing in return.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Neshant » 07 May 2017 01:50

Kashi wrote:It's the leadership that matters. After all NoKos who are ethnically the same as SoKos, followed a very different trajectory. Ditto for East and West Germany.


Not to side track the civil aviation discussion... but the "magic ingredient" in the case of SoKo, Taiwan, Singapore, West Germany's development was generous US trade policies which opened its markets to exports from those countries and funded them well with loads of capital. During the Cold War, these countries were meant to showcase the glory of capitalism and thus were given a golden ticket by Uncle Sam.

Now sure, they had competent leadership and that helped.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Neshant » 07 May 2017 02:00

JayS wrote:Why should we care whatever the F*%$ "ideal" Capitalism means..? And there is no such thing as "Ideal" Capitalism, least of all in Aerospace/defense.

And GOI can always compensate the price escalation by giving waivers, tax breaks in various forms. The reduction in costs in manufacturing and MRO for next 20odd years of operational costs can easily make the deal look nicer.


The efficient market theory of capitalism is such that money naturally flows to the area which brings the greatest benefit.
If GOI has to compensate an airline for the price escalation, it means the money for that compensation has to come from some other industry/individual through tax.
That industry might be producing cars or software or industrial machinery or baskets at a profit currently - but due to the tax may now be suffering a loss.

That India as a whole will make a profit if Boeing moves part of its manufacturing from US to India is not a given. It obligates India to buy more Boeing planes simply because they have a factory in India producing carpets or chairs for the 737. But what if India does not want to buy those planes but rather more recent Bombardier C-series or Embraer type regional planes at a lower cost.

All things being equal, it is better for the plane purchaser to negotiate the steepest discount it can get and grow its business. Rather than asking for offsets, price those offsets in and give the deepest discount right up front. When govt steps in to with subsidies to direct purchases, it benefits some but injures others.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Deans » 07 May 2017 11:38

Good post Neshant ji,
I was briefly involved in aircraft purchase for Go Airlines, as its commercial head and would like to share some thoughts.
Almost all the aircraft Indian players are buying are leased, not purchased outright. So, the buyer is some leasing company based in the West. That reduces India's ability to negotiate collectively, compared to the Chinese who buy outright.

Every Indian airline pushes the manufacturer for big discounts. It would hardly make a difference if GOI negotiated on behalf of them. However, options are limited. If Indigo has 100+ A320's, they are hardly going to switch to Boeing and vice-versa for Spice.
Making regional jets here is possible. Embraer or Bombardier would be open to setting up a line if there was demand. Generating that demand will require cash strapped airlines to invest ahead of demand, which is problematic. Embraer signed a big deal with Air Costa but the airline went bust after 2 aircraft were purchased. The same thing happened with the earlier airline which bought Embraer aircraft. Spice bought the Q400 at a throwaway price from Bombardier and would not have got a better deal if the aircraft was made locally. Demand can increase with schemes like UDAAN but the biggest problem with that scheme is lack of slots in the `hub airports'. For e.g. there may be demand for a flight (small capacity) from Jalgaon to Mumbai, or Ludhiana to Delhi, but there are no slots available in Mumbai and Delhi for multiple flights.

Our capability to make passenger aircraft in India are sadly very limited. Even if an aircraft has to be painted, it is sent abroad. Pilots go abroad for simulator training. India (or Air India for that matter) has the engineering talent to make India a hub for aircraft maintenance, but other enabling factors are not there.
Last edited by Deans on 07 May 2017 12:18, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby nachiket » 07 May 2017 11:57

Deans wrote:Making regional jets here is possible. Embraer or Bombardier would be open to setting up a line if there was demand. Generating that demand will require cash strapped airlines to invest ahead of demand, which is problematic. Demand can increase with schemes like UDAAN but the biggest problem with that scheme is lack of slots in the `hub airports'. For e.g. there may be demand for a flight (small capacity) from Jalgaon to Mumbai, or Ludhiana to Delhi, but there are no slots available in Mumbai and Delhi for multiple flights.

What would be the solution to this? Mumbai airport has no space to expand. The Navi Mumbai airport should have been up and running by now but sadly will not see the light of day for several more years.

But other cities like Delhi do not have the same space constraints. Is it a chicken and egg situation where more expansion is not financially feasible because there is no demand right now and the demand isn't generated because there are no more slots?

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 07 May 2017 12:42

Bideshi apts seem to hv more frequency of ac movement. Should do what it takes to increase slot in hub apts and build simple shed type lcc terminals..water ac and clean toilets and nothing more..no user develooment fee..let aai operate. Even blr has only 48 movements per hour max...3rd busiest in country. Its 2nd runway should have been built long ago in advance of t2 rather than in parallel with t2

Delink runways from terminal projects.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Singha » 07 May 2017 12:48

Paris beauvais airport..rated one of worst in world. We should put down walmarts like these next to full featured apts

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby nachiket » 07 May 2017 12:51

The lack of runways in our airports is truly astonishing. I doubt any airport besides Delhi has parallel runways which can be used simultaneously. BLR has only 1. Super busy Mumbai has two cross runways only one of which is active at a time.

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Re: Civil Aviation Development & Discussion

Postby Deans » 07 May 2017 12:59

Nachiket, The problem is worse than what my earlier post suggests. Slot availability is the single biggest problem affecting the growth of our civil aviation. The problem is not lack of demand but lack of slots in 1 of the 2 airports of the route. I recall the management of Durgapur airport (then under construction) making a presentation to me in 2011, inviting Go Air to fly from there and promising us slots `anytime'. The problem was that the only feasible airports for a flight to land (even if we were willing to take a hit till demand was built up) were Delhi and Mumbai and they had no slots for the Durgapur flight to land at any time ! You might like to see what flights Durgapur operates 6 years later.

Apart from Mumbai, In Delhi, there is a space constraint - no room for a 3rd runway and its associated infrastructure. The existing capacity can be increased if VIP's and foreign dignitaries travel to/from IAF Hindon in Ghaziabad and small private jets moved out (to Safdarjung).

Many of the top 15 airports in the country (by traffic) are IAF or Navy bases and have limited operating hours, which affect capacity. These include Pune, Srinagar, Goa, Jammu, Leh, Chandigarh & Bagdogra. That's because GOI has neglected to build civil airports in these places. Goa and Pune civil airports have been on the drawing board for longer than Navi Mumbai.
OTOH, I believe it is possible for the IAF to move a lot of its Srinagar operations from Srinagar to Avantipur AFS. That can double the no of flights into Srinagar and the impact of increased tourism for the valley can only be positive. Similarly, moving some IAF operations out of Agra and making it an International airport can significantly boost tourism and slightly reduce the load on Delhi.

Another constraint facing most of our airports is the lack of night landing facilities. In most of our civil airports, flights cannot land after sunset !

Further problems:
Lack of CAT 3 instrument landing systems to operate in fog. Only Delhi is CAT 3B equipped.
ATC radar is not modern enough to have smaller spacing between flights.
Runway length in most airports is too short to accommodate a Boeing 737 or a A320. Patna and Leh operate these aircraft, but sometimes
with a payload penalty due to shorter runways.


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