PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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gakakkad
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 08:36

ravi_ku wrote:Nonsense, does the US report its debt liabilities adding up the debt of california and all its local govts, along with the debts of citibank, boa etc..??


What about the state owned banks and the ministries ? Some sources actually put the debt figure to >90% gdp.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 08:38

wong wrote:^^^^

Lookup CRH 400 which has been out and CRH-X Cobra.

Should we only post negative stories on the Chinese Economy here??
I post a story about the new Chongqing-Duisburg railway (which will be huge economically) and I get crickets.

Personally, I visit here because I want the different/opposing viewpoint.



You are free to post whatever you like. But I feel that Zlin is not exactly a Human or is a member of ccp drone team. He never replies .

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 08:49

The floating crane is from england. Check below the Yoshida floating crane.

http://tech-news-update.com/10-enormous ... g-cranes-2
Last edited by gakakkad on 09 Jul 2011 08:54, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby wrdos » 09 Jul 2011 08:50

In this forum, you can have only 1 conclusion, China collapsing, otherwise......

I firstly visited here in about 2003 or 2004, when China's economy was about twice of Indian. Friends here keep saying, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.

Now in 2011, when China's economy was about 4 times of Indian. But friends here just repeat the same kind of discussions, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 08:58

wrdos wrote:In this forum, you can have only 1 conclusion, China collapsing, otherwise......

I firstly visited here in about 2003 or 2004, when China's economy was about twice of Indian. Friends here keep saying, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.

Now in 2011, when China's economy was about 4 times of Indian. But friends here just repeat the same kind of discussions, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.



was about 2.6 times then. The figure is about the same now in ppp terms. While comparing gdp of 2 countries ppp would be more appropriate as currency value fluctuates. In the last 7 years your currency has appreciated a great deal against the dollar while ours has remained the same. Anyway you can give your point of views .

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby somnath » 09 Jul 2011 10:22

gakakkad wrote:In the last 7 years your currency has appreciated a great deal against the dollar while ours has remained the same

The chinese ccy has appreciated much less than what the economic fundamentals would indicate - part of the problem with China actually..

wrdos wrote:In this forum, you can have only 1 conclusion, China collapsing, otherwise......

Wong, thats not true...China remains an exemplar for India, and I rpeat this, in a number of areas....

I think this whole business of "China collapsing", or even India versus China is a bit puerile unless taken out of rhetorical levels...Its much more interesting to study the challenges faced by two very different development paradigms, and how they are being confronted...India doesnt have the answers to all problems, neither does China.....to make matters "worse" (and more intresting), lessons from each other are not even transferable...For example, Chinese project-buildign are substantially a function of speedy land acquisition, in a manner which will never ever be possible in India...Indian banks on the other hand, are children of the Indian system, of a quality that the Chinese in their current structure will perhaps never be able to emulate....So lets concentrate on studying the challenges, and how they are confronted....

Talking of debt, private debt is seldom a big issue, unless they are held by residents of a "closed" economy in foreign currency....A large amount of private debt might skew consumption, and result in a debt bubble causing recession, but there are "claening up" mechanisms...Public debt, on the other hand, is much more intractable...the reason is simple - when it becomes an issue, cutting back on it causes a deeper structural impact on the economy in terms of growth..while not cutting back on it simply exacerbates the problem...Which is really the problem with the US...

BTW, while few banks were "nationalised" (barring Freddie, Fannie and AIG), US govt took substantial stakes in a range of banks (single largest in most cases) - but they have now sold off most of it at a profit....

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby somnath » 09 Jul 2011 12:40

gakakkad wrote:The figure is about the same now in ppp terms. While comparing gdp of 2 countries ppp would be more appropriate as currency value fluctuates.

It isnt...In PPP terms, China will still be 2-3 times bigger in USD terms...To be honest, PPP is a good theoretical exercise, but companies, people dont trade PPP dollars, they trade real dollars....

But really, its not the macro achievements of China that is awesome, but its stupendous achievements on HDIs...Communist states are known for this, but none have managed to do it at the scale of China...It is by all accounts an impressive story - and we would do well to take them as a performance benchmark....

Ambar wrote:The biggest difference is with the unfunded liabilities in US thanks to social security and medicare. Atleast the GoI does not have those obligations

We do..the good news however is that a) our workforce is much younger, hence the dependency ratios are still very favourable and b) we have recognised the problem and moved to modern, state-of-the-art solutions already (like Defined Contribution pensions, incipient health insurance etc)...

A small point about HSR...Most economic studies put the viability of HSR pegged to a specific disance, I think its ~500 miles..Anything over that, and it becomes apparently unviable....But these models are based largely on full economic costs..With land being acquired virtually for free in China, and cost of capital artificially low, who knows? Maybe the trains will yet be viable in the long run, especially with the sort of demand that a 1.3 billion country can generate...The issue again, will be of financing - the banks picking up the tab, will they be able to sustain it?

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby ashashi » 09 Jul 2011 16:06

wrdos wrote:In this forum, you can have only 1 conclusion, China collapsing, otherwise......

I firstly visited here in about 2003 or 2004, when China's economy was about twice of Indian. Friends here keep saying, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.


Lets be fair and objective. This forum members were not the source China's criticisms. We are just analyzing what is said by reputed economics and investors all over the world. If you remember, those criticisms by the experts started in the late 90s.

Since the late 90s, US has been complaining that Yaun is undervalued by as much as 40%, giving unfair advantage to Chinese exports. They been "requesting" China to float Yuan. CPP mantra has always been, "we are a developing economy. we will do it slowly".

More than a decade later, Yaun is still undervalued. Undervalued currency and suppressed wages give china so much advantage, even the poor and under developed countries in Africa cannot compete even in manufacture of rudimentary plastic toys.

There is no ill feeling towards China here. We all admire the rate at which China progressed. We are envious to a degree because India can even dream of achieving China's rapid growth.

India and China are polar opposites in the areas of economy and development. In India, development is driven by the people. Because of the corrupt and inefficient govt. people are forced to slow down on their aspirations and entrepreneurship. In China, CCP is at the helm of the E&D creating immense opportunities for the people.

Its a fair and necessary exercise to study methods China adopted to achieve remarkable growth rates.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby ashashi » 09 Jul 2011 16:32

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/chinas-inflation-jumps-to-3-year-high-even-as-economy-cools-food-costs-up-144-percent/2011/07/08/gIQA7qda4H_story.html

China’s inflation jumps to 3-year high even as economy cools; food costs up 14.4 percent

The price of pork, the country’s staple meat, jumped 57.1 percent in June, the National Bureau of Statistics reported. That is especially sensitive in a society where poor families spend up to half their incomes on food.


Li Peilan, a 70-year-old Beijing housewife, said food costs consume nearly half her family’s 6,000 yuan ($920) monthly income.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 09 Jul 2011 21:11

wrdos wrote:
I firstly visited here in about 2003 or 2004, when China's economy was about twice of Indian. Friends here keep saying, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.

Now in 2011, when China's economy was about 4 times of Indian. But friends here just repeat the same kind of discussions, no problem, the Chinese figure was cooked and it sure will collapse soon.


So from 2004 to 2011 the PRC consumption of electricity, construction and energy has doubled. That is in 7 years it has doubled. Wow

But the import of raw materials and other basic materials does not show this corroboration data. Wow

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 09 Jul 2011 21:13

ashashi wrote:

There is no ill feeling towards China here. We all admire the rate at which China progressed. We are envious to a degree because India can even dream of achieving China's rapid growth.

We are here to show the downfall of PRC China.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 21:19

I agree that PPP has more of academic importance. But comparing economy of of 2 countries over a period of time is an academic exercise. And ppp is surely a better measure here.

I can cite 2 examples for that.

If you compare Indian and Chinese GDP in 1980s you find that the Chinese are about 25% ahead throughout the 80s. The only difference being the year 1981 wherein the Indian GDP overtakes that of china and exceeds it by 25 % . If you look at the real gdp growth rate China did not have a recession in 1981. The difference can be due to massive fluctuation in currency prices then. The Indian currency in those days was artificially pegged to the dollar.
China India
1980 202,458 182,472
1981 168,367 197,308
1982 281,280 204,362

Value in million dollars.

If we look at 1991- The year in which Indian gov had to devalue the Indian currency due to balance of payment troubles. In nominal terms Indian GDP appeared to be 30% less than in the previous year. But India was not in recession in 1991 . Its economy grew by 2% .

The point I wanted to make to our Chinese guest is that we have been doing about as well as they have been since 2000s . They zoomed considerably ahead of us in 1990s. If reforms were initiated in 1970s instead of 1990s we may have become the largest economy by now and I and many other rakshaks would have been located in India rather than overseas and we would not have been having this discussion. I hope the next wave of reforms is initiated fast . We could grow in excess of 15% when that may happen .

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 09 Jul 2011 21:23

China to build new hydroelectric power plants
BEIJING - China will invest 400 billion yuan ($62 billion) in the construction of four hydroelectric dams, to help the government boost the share of non-fossil fuels in national energy consumption.

The country will increase the share of non-fossil sources to 20 percent of national energy consumption by 2030 and to one-third by 2050, said Han Wenke, director of the Energy Research Center at the National Development and Reform Commission on Wednesday.

"There is no doubt that the country is able to increase non-fossil sources to 15 percent of the energy mix by 2020," he said.

China Three Gorges Corp will be in charge of the four hydroelectric dams, named Xiluodu, Xiangjiaba, Wudongde, and Baihetan, on the Jinsha River, a tributary of the Yangtze River, the longest river in Asia and the third-longest in the world.

Part of the investment will be provided by equity trading, said Li Jing, deputy director of the company's planning and development department.

He declined to disclose further details of the financing plan.

The total installed capacity of the four dams will be 43 million kilowatts (kW), and is expected to be double that of the Three Gorges Dam, the world's largest power station in terms of installed or production capacity, according to the company.

The four hydroelectric stations will be able to supply 190 billion kilowatt hours annually when the project is completed.

The production efficiency and environmental and geological impact of the Three Gorges Dam have been the focus of intense discussion recently. Some experts said the plant has severely polluted the local environment.

However, industry insiders argued that it is necessary for the country to continue the development of hydroelectric stations.

"To increase water-power generation is still the priority for the power industry," said Ouyang Changyu, deputy secretary-general of the China Electric Council. "As long as the government can balance the contradiction between the construction of hydropower stations and the environment, it can develop hydropower production at a reasonable pace."

"It is impossible for the country to increase the non-fossil energy share to 15 percent in the energy mix by the end of 2020 if it slows the construction speed of hydroelectric stations," said Li. "In fact, the unit cost of hydroelectricity is lower than coal-fired electricity if we add the environmental cost into the calculation."

According to the company, the Xiangjiaba and Xiluodu hydropower stations are likely to be operational within the next two years. The Xiangjiaba hydropower station is scheduled to start running in 2012 with an installed capacity of 6.4 million kW, followed by the Xiluodu station in 2013 with 13.68 million kW of installed capacity.


Meanwhile
China's first million-kW hydro-power units expected by 2020
China's first domestically made large hydro-power generators with a capacity of more than 1 million kW will go into service before 2020, said Cheng Yongquan, deputy general engineer of the China Three Gorges Corporation.

Cheng told Xinhua Wednesday that the key technology research would be completed by the end of this year.

The generators would be put into use at the Wudongde and Baihetan hydropower stations, on Jinsha River, which constitutes part of the upper reaches of the Yangtze River, he said.

The total capacity of the two hydropower stations would be 20 million kW and they were expected to start operating before 2020, he said.

Cheng said research showed that installing a larger scale generator would bring better social and economic benefits.

The 1-million-kW hydro-power generating unit was the largest in the world, Cheng said. The largest existing unit in China was 700,000 kW in capacity.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 09 Jul 2011 21:29

Acharya wrote:
ashashi wrote:

There is no ill feeling towards China here. We all admire the rate at which China progressed. We are envious to a degree because India can even dream of achieving China's rapid growth.

We are here to show the downfall of PRC China.



It is not going to be a down fall. It will be a considerable reduction in growth rate followed by civil unrest that will be crushed brutally followed by business as usual. Since we don't have the low self esteem of the Pakistani's we don't indulge in such loose talk in our forums. The Chinese say a lot of nonsensical stuff about us in their CCTV. Like dreams about dividing india etc. But we want to show our Chinese guests that we are saner than they are and will not be provoked into talking irrationally. That we appreciate their achievements but are not fooled by their propaganda and statistical manipulation . We believe in capitalism and market will set what is right.
We are at an earlier stage of development compared to china whose reforms were initiated in late 1970s . Once our growth rate accelerates to 15%+ the fun would start .
Last edited by gakakkad on 09 Jul 2011 21:33, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 09 Jul 2011 21:37

Tibet's Largest Solar Power Plant Starts Operation

The largest solar power plant ever built in southwest China's Tibet Autonomous Region went into service on Wednesday. The plant is expected to help ease the region's recurring power shortages.

The 30-megawatt (MW) power plant project is located in Xigaze Prefecture, about 3 km northwest of Tibet's second-largest city of Xigaze.

The plant is being built in three phases. The first phase involved the construction of power facilities at a cost of 249 million yuan (about 38.5 million U.S. dollars). These facilities were integrated into the region's local power grid on Wednesday, where they will generate up to 20.23 million kilowatt-hours (kwh) of electricity annually, according to project manager Gao Yuankun.

Gao said the first phase of the project will ease power shortages in the prefecture by supplying electricity for more than 100,000 households.

The project will also save 9,000 metric tons of coal and reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 17,800 metric tons annually, he said.

The project, costing 800 million yuan, is solely funded by the Linuo Power Group, a leading provider of solar photovoltaic power generation systems based in east China's Shandong Province.

Tibet has abundant solar energy resources, receiving an average of 3,300 hours of sunlight annually.

Tibet has stepped up its exploration of clean energy resources over the last 60 years in order to protect the region's environment while simultaneously allowing growth and development to take place

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby RamaY » 09 Jul 2011 21:44

Zlin,

On which river(s) china plans to build those massive hydro-electric plants?

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby RamaT » 10 Jul 2011 01:34

Don't feed the Zlin troll.. he's just posting these random stories to move the large discussion we were having about the real struggles forthcoming for the Chinese economy and their impact on the Communist government.

These are real concerns that will have a huge impact and since he and others don't have rational answers out of the trap that the Communist policies created they will distract from the discussion and post random spam with no substance behind it.

So let me re-focus the discussions, we are starting to see behind the curtain and the puppeteers are naked.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-08/china-debt-sale-fails-for-third-time-this-year-as-cash-crunch-curbs-demand.html

China’s finance ministry failed to sell all of the debt offered at an auction for the third time this year as a cash crunch damped demand from banks.

The ministry sold 11.76 billion yuan ($1.82 billion) of 182-day bills, falling short of its 15 billion yuan target, according to traders at financing companies required to bid at the auctions. The seven-day repurchase rate, which measures interbank funding availability, has almost doubled in the past month to 6.25 percent after the central bank pushed lenders’ reserve-requirement ratios to a record 21.5 percent on June 14.

“Demand has declined as a cash shortage continues,” said Guo Caomin, a bond analyst at Industrial Bank Co. in Shanghai. “The cash crunch will probably last at least until the middle of this month.”


http://www.globalpost.com/dispatch/news/regions/asia-pacific/china/110707/china%E2%80%99s-mountain-debt-explained

GlobalPost: Put this in perspective for us: How much debt does China have?

Victor Shih: That depends on what you include. Large sectors of the Chinese economy are owned by the government. The debt of these state-owned enterprises is what’s called a “contingent liability” — ultimately it’s the responsibility of the government. If you count all of these liabilities, then you get to an extremely high number, something like 150 percent of the Chinese gross domestic product, or more.

A more restricted definition is debt that's owed by either the central or local governments. That is about 80 percent of China's GDP

GP: If China's central and local governments are responsible for the companies’ debts, is that the more prudent number to use?

Victor Shih: It depends on the prevailing economic conditions. When the economy's strong, then there's no need to look at the wider contingent liabilities, because there's plenty of money to go around. If the business environment begins to deteriorate, state-run enterprises could go bankrupt. In those cases, you do need to look at the broader liabilities. If growth slows down substantially, people may find that the Chinese government in fact owes a lot more than 100 percent of GDP.


http://econintersect.com/wordpress/?p=10485

I’m sure MinMetals is no slouch when it comes to trading metals, but it wouldn’t have occurred to me that a metals trading background would have made anyone particularly good at real estate development, and especially at developing such an undoubtedly classy project. This kind of thing, however, is actually not an anomaly in China. A surprisingly large number of SOEs and other large companies in China have real estate development subsidiaries.

In fact a lot of Chinese SOEs are involved in a very wide variety of business activities, and are especially fond of activities in which cheap capital is the comparative advantage, or in which there is political advantage to be gained. That makes real estate development and “high tech” two of the most popular ancillary businesses.


This distorted incentive structure ended up encouraging capital misallocation, and after a few exciting years, the profitability of conglomerates plummeted. Incentive structures, in other words, determine behavior in the aggregate, and if the incentive is to ignore value creation in favor of some other objective, value creation tends not to occur. In fact the opposite occurs. Value tends to be destroyed if those other objectives can be met by deploying capital.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 10 Jul 2011 03:13

RamaY wrote:Zlin,

On which river(s) china plans to build those massive hydro-electric plants?


Upstream of Yangtse River, called Jinsha (Golden Sand) River

Image

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby ashi » 10 Jul 2011 03:42

RamaT wrote:Don't feed the Zlin troll.. he's just posting these random stories to move the large discussion we were having about the real struggles forthcoming for the Chinese economy and their impact on the Communist government.

These are real concerns that will have a huge impact and since he and others don't have rational answers out of the trap that the Communist policies created they will distract from the discussion and post random spam with no substance behind it.

So let me re-focus the discussions, we are starting to see behind the curtain and the puppeteers are naked.



Just starting? In this forum we have been seeing "behind the curtain" for the last 10-15 yrs. :lol:

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby ashi » 10 Jul 2011 03:50

gakakkad wrote:The Chinese say a lot of nonsensical stuff about us in their CCTV. Like dreams about dividing india etc.


Now I would really like to see some proof of this. It is really rare that Chinese government openly criticize other countries.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby vina » 10 Jul 2011 06:12

I dont know how many people see this, but for me , as I do a "macro" tea reading "strat-e-jee" which I do periodically, it seems to me that as of now the Chinese goose is cooked.

The strategy behind the Chinese pump priming, i mean, if it can be called that, was that the global economy will pick up "shortly" and then the exports will kick back into full gear, then it will be back to the old export driven growth story and you can rein in the stimulus and deal with the imbalances that it has created.

Add to that the strategy of keeping the RMB at artificially low rates (to keep the exports up) leading to a mountain of forex reserves and all that, the inevitable consequence was inflation and well , now we are seeing that happening, with Chinese inflation at 3 year highs, depsite all the rate tightening that has happened.

Now with the US economy still down and out and no end in sight, Europe roiled in problems, Japan comatose, the global demand was largely Chinese investment spending demand (incrementally). Now I think that has run it's course.

The Chinese shot their bullet, it didn't work, and now I wonder what the options are? There is no way out but to let the Forex rate rise (if you want to control inflation,.. remember, out of the 3 of Forex rate, interest rate and inflation, you can control only two) and that will unhinge the Chinese export machine, while dealing with the Forex mountain problem and actually kick start consumption in China . There are are really no good options now. Go along the path they are going, and it is an "Escalator to hell" as Jim Chanos said or do actual reforms that handle imbalances and long term problems, but that will entail significant short and medium term pain (erosion of export competitiveness, higher unemployment ) which I doubt the Chinese political system can handle.

All in all a tough place. My guess is that the Chinese will double down their bets on the route that they have taken. It will be either "grow out of the crisis" or "bust". I think the Chinese growth momentum has peaked (I took long standing bets with Chinese posters here 6 months ago that over the next 5 years, the avg growth rates of India will be higher than the Chinese one, I expect wrdos to pay up after 5 years) and if they double down, I am willing to take the bet on the "bust" .

I am willing to put money where my mouth is after 6 months, once I decide which way the Chinese are going to jump. Lets see which our our Chinese posters here will take up my bet in case I decide to bet on "bust".

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 10 Jul 2011 06:31

ZPMC the same company which made the giant Lanjing crane vessel, is making bridge for San Francisco Bay.

Bridge Comes to San Francisco With a Made-in-China Label

Image
Ryan Pyle for The New York Times
Workers at Shanghai Zhenhua finish the welding on a section of the eastern span of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

By DAVID BARBOZA
Published: June 25, 2011
SHANGHAI — Talk about outsourcing.

At a sprawling manufacturing complex here, hundreds of Chinese laborers are now completing work on the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.

Next month, the last four of more than two dozen giant steel modules — each with a roadbed segment about half the size of a football field — will be loaded onto a huge ship and transported 6,500 miles to Oakland. There, they will be assembled to fit into the eastern span of the new Bay Bridge.

The project is part of China’s continual move up the global economic value chain — from cheap toys to Apple iPads to commercial jetliners — as it aims to become the world’s civil engineer.

The assembly work in California, and the pouring of the concrete road surface, will be done by Americans. But construction of the bridge decks and the materials that went into them are a Made in China affair. California officials say the state saved hundreds of millions of dollars by turning to China.

“They’ve produced a pretty impressive bridge for us,” Tony Anziano, a program manager at the California Department of Transportation, said a few weeks ago. He was touring the 1.2-square-mile manufacturing site that the Chinese company created to do the bridge work. “Four years ago, there were just steel plates here and lots of orange groves.”

On the reputation of showcase projects like Beijing’s Olympic-size airport terminal and the mammoth hydroelectric Three Gorges Dam, Chinese companies have been hired to build copper mines in the Congo, high-speed rail lines in Brazil and huge apartment complexes in Saudi Arabia.

In New York City alone, Chinese companies have won contracts to help renovate the subway system, refurbish the Alexander Hamilton Bridge over the Harlem River and build a new Metro-North train platform near Yankee Stadium. As with the Bay Bridge, American union labor would carry out most of the work done on United States soil.

China, the world’s biggest steel maker, was the front-runner, particularly because it has dominated bridge building for the last decade. Several years ago, Shanghai opened a 20-mile sea bridge; the country is now planning a much longer one near Hong Kong.

The selection of the state-owned Shanghai Zhenhua Heavy Industries Company was a surprise, though, because the company made port cranes and had no bridge building experience.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Hari Seldon » 10 Jul 2011 06:48

somnath wrote:
Hari Seldon wrote:^^^The sun seems to have risen from the west what with somnath-ji passionately defending the Yindian model despite its relatively yindu growth rates compared to soaring-dragon rates in PRC. Mysterious are the ways of the world indeed....

There is no "defending" - the world's not a black-and-white place...I said many times, China in many ways is an exemplar for India - to deny that would be childish...At the saem time, it is an interesting experience for all of us to see how China manages some of the inherent issues with their growth model - some of which defy economic sense...India, on the other hand, ploughs its own burrow - some of which has lessons for China! For the common citizen, if there was a way to combine India's economic/political freedom with China's civic infrastructure - that would be the best!


Fair enough, agreed saar. The cattiness was in the context of your rather casual diss-missing Yindian export performance of the past few yrs in the Ind Econ dhaga. Seemed Yindia's limited accomplishments didn't merit recognition or such back then. Anyways, past is past. Looking fwd to your dissection of PRC's command performances year after year....jai ho, Hari Om.:)

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Hari Seldon » 10 Jul 2011 07:06

From twitter @TheEconomist

>>China's murky ownership rules highlight the perils of investing where the law is unclear http://econ.st/pOggD5

Don't for a minute assume that Conomist's motives in lamenting the lack of clear ownership rules in china are altruistic but there are grains of truth hidden in there. PRC has given the TFTA emerged wrld's princelings tight jhapads when it mattered in the way only PRC could do so. Anyone recall Goldman getting rebuffed and getting zero money from PRC banks on the derivative contracts it had with them, eh? PRC banks flatly said, go eff yourself and even TFTA Goldman couldn't do a thing about it. Quitely buried the news lest other clients get ideas and all.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby RamaT » 10 Jul 2011 08:20

ashi wrote:
RamaT wrote:Don't feed the Zlin troll.. he's just posting these random stories to move the large discussion we were having about the real struggles forthcoming for the Chinese economy and their impact on the Communist government.

These are real concerns that will have a huge impact and since he and others don't have rational answers out of the trap that the Communist policies created they will distract from the discussion and post random spam with no substance behind it.

So let me re-focus the discussions, we are starting to see behind the curtain and the puppeteers are naked.



Just starting? In this forum we have been seeing "behind the curtain" for the last 10-15 yrs. :lol:


I was referring to the loan scandal and the CCP's recent poilicies.. but yes, the non-sustainable path has been evident for a while. :P

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby somnath » 10 Jul 2011 09:24

gakakkad wrote:If we look at 1991- The year in which Indian gov had to devalue the Indian currency due to balance of payment troubles. In nominal terms Indian GDP appeared to be 30% less than in the previous year. But India was not in recession in 1991 . Its economy grew by 2% .

The point I wanted to make to our Chinese guest is that we have been doing about as well as they have been since 2000s . They zoomed considerably ahead of us in 1990s. If reforms were initiated in 1970s instead of 1990s we may have become the largest economy by now and I and many other rakshaks would have been located in India rather than overseas and we would not have been having this discussion.

First up, currency valauations are factored in the PPP maths, implicitly (interest parity princple derivatives - you can google for the technical rationale)...

Second, In 1990, India's external account was broke - devaluation was an essential policy tool to recover from that situation...

Last, since 2000, while we have done well, in sheer headline numbers, China has done even better! And to think that they did it over a "base" that was 2-3 times ours is simply stupendous stuff!

Which is why if anyone starts crowing that China's growth in the next 5 years will underpeform India's, its basically uneducated tripe...at a base that is 3 times ours, its but natural that they would grow slower...the surprise is that they havent already done so! If anything, the development experience of China, as well as increasingly India, is a case of uncharted territories...The world has not seen a 5 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate at which China has...The world has also not seen a 2 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate India is (barring maybe Japan)...So it is uncharted territory - and if the Chinese make mistakes, they wont be Robinson Crusoes...

the broader Chinese experience - of moving from an export-led, towards an investment-led and finally onto a consumption-led growth model is pretty par - lots of countries in Asia have followed that..Issue about China is about resorce efficiency...While by most accounts, their Total Factor Productivity growth has been admirable, at absolute levels, they seem to be massively inefficient in usage of resources....Land, water, minerals, capital - especially the last....

Which is what I am really interested in - how does China bring in capital efficiency within a broader polity that is dependent on spreading out largesse in order to suppress social tensions?

LAstly,
Hari Seldon wrote:The cattiness was in the context of your rather casual diss-missing Yindian export performance of the past few yrs in the Ind Econ dhaga.

Read the sections again - my response was only to rather casual extrapolation of a monthly export performance number, multiplying it by 12, and proclaiming potential export "greatness"...I was only putting up the realistic numbers..

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby chola » 10 Jul 2011 16:40

somnath wrote:
The world has not seen a 5 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate at which China has...The world has also not seen a 2 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate India is (barring maybe Japan)...So it is uncharted territory - and if the Chinese make mistakes, they wont be Robinson Crusoes...


Far more unusual for a communist nation to be growing for such a long period than a free market democracy. So China is the much bigger phenomenon. I find it far more fascinating that China have survived the Great Leap Forward, Cultural Revolution, Famine and all the other disasters created by communism and do as well as it is doing. In fact, I find it maddeningly irritating that it is not punished more by natural economic laws that had put a beating on every other communist nation dead or alive.

India's growth otoh is natural and follows a well-worn path traveled by the rest of the world's democracy from the US to Japan to Costa Rica. The overwhelming majority of today's wealthiest states are democracies -- barring resource-producers blessed by fate and who ultimately depend on the markets provided by the world's democracies.

But eventually over the long term, the rot of communism will catch up with them again. China cannot escape the fact of the USSR any more than Russia could have.

the broader Chinese experience - of moving from an export-led, towards an investment-led and finally onto a consumption-led growth model is pretty par - lots of countries in Asia have followed that..Issue about China is about resorce efficiency...While by most accounts, their Total Factor Productivity growth has been admirable, at absolute levels, they seem to be massively inefficient in usage of resources....Land, water, minerals, capital - especially the last....


Until the CCP is overthrown it will remain resource inefficient. That is the nature with command economies. China is growing with brute force with all the unlimited and wasteful power of the state much like the USSR grew. It is undoubtedly more efficient than the USSR because of the heavy presence of non-resident Chinese and foreign multi-nationals who inject efficiency to parts of its economy. But it is still communist and it will remain inefficient as long as the communists are in control. And I hope they stay in control as long as possible.

If China were are efficient as Japan, Korea, Taiwan and the rest of the Far East, it would have their per capita income. But they don't and from what I have seen, they are not allowed to forget it. From Tokyo to free chini cities Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei the PRC is looked down upon as inferior country bumpkins. Stupid, inefficient and wasteful. They are the laggards in a neighborhood where the average income is up to 10 times higher. A good amount of the impetus behind China's infrastructure drive with its bullet trains and skyscrapers must be this gnawing sense of inferiority to the neighbors.

Now that is actually a good thing. A sense of inferiority can give you the drive to change and build so that the neighbors can no longer hold their noses at you.

India lives in a neighborhood of broken and failed states who live poorer lives than us.

Which is what I am really interested in - how does China bring in capital efficiency within a broader polity that is dependent on spreading out largesse in order to suppress social tensions?


This rather recent argument that China spreads largesse in order to suppress social tensions is a fairy tale concocted by the liberal media. China's social tensions are suppressed by the gun. Social tensions are held in check by threat of state violence no more no less. The so-called "largesse" in China is simple inefficiency and corruption.

China cannot bring efficiency until state control is ended and its private entrepreneurs are allowed to grow and prosper at the expense of state-owned enterprises in a free market. Without a truly free market it will remain inefficient. Your question is better posed as when is China's revolution.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 10 Jul 2011 17:26

somnath wrote:
Last, since 2000, while we have done well, in sheer headline numbers, China has done even better! And to think that they did it over a "base" that was 2-3 times ours is simply stupendous stuff!

Which is why if anyone starts crowing that China's growth in the next 5 years will underpeform India's, its basically uneducated tripe...at a base that is 3 times ours, its but natural that they would grow slower...the surprise is that they havent already done so! If anything, the development experience of China, as well as increasingly India, is a case of uncharted territories...The world has not seen a 5 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate at which China has...The world has also not seen a 2 trillion dollar economy grow @ the rate India is (barring maybe Japan)...So it is uncharted territory - and if the Chinese make mistakes, they wont be Robinson Crusoes...



This is a specious argument. The only economies greater than 5 trillion besides the prc are the American and Japanese economy . The American gdp crossed 5 trillion in 1988 . 5 trillion in those days had a lot more value than 5 trillion these days. The American people in those days were the most prosperous in the world. The unemp rate was about 5 % . The per capita owner ship of gadgets and luxury products was the highest. The Japs have been vacillating the 5 trillion mark for the pas decade and a half.
While in India and China there is still huge poverty and standard of living is pretty ordinary .
In fact the Chinese and Indian growth story is an expected consequence rather than a miracle. It is the western media that termed it a miracle. Because in their snobbery they did not expect us to grow. I believe that India and China have the potential to grow at rapid pace even at higher economic base. And the reasons are very scientific rather than jingoistic.

At a higher base of economy there could be 3 factors that could provide inertia to growth.

1) A population that is saturated with all goodies - They cannot sell any tv if everyone owns a big screen LED TV. This can be observed in Japan. Everyone has everything in life. So it is difficult to sell more. Only if some ones TV breaks would he buy a new one. Growth in such an economy is almost purely innovation driven. You have to introduce a new kind of product that has not yet been in the market making the consumers buy them. My dad had owned 2 plasma tv's that he had bought 6 years ago. Recently he replaced them with LED back lit LCDs as he found the picture quality significantly better. But my dad represents the elite Indian. There are millions of Indians who are still waiting for their first television. The point is that Indian and chinese markets are not saturated and as more and more people are removed from poverty consumer demand will increase. The markets are not likely to be saturated in the next few decades.

2) Another rate limiting factor for growth is rate at which production can be increased to meet demand - This is an important factor for both India and China . (especially india). Besides the obvious physical and technical factors like time to build new factories (which are common for each and every country) there can be region specific troubles. (Land aquistion in India). This is the area where the Chinese have been exemplar. Besides increased production generates employment in itself further increasing demand.

3) Limited resources - In the future this would be the most important limiting factor .

Lack of demand is not a problem . Neither is increasing production capacity. Labour and land reforms can take care of impediments on this front. And our resources are not going to dry up in the next 30 years.

It is not possible to grow indefinitely . Japan grew till it had a per capita income of close to 40K dollars . Than it stopped growing . Euro economies too faced great resistance to growth once they reached that figure . I believe that their will be an upper limit per capita income up to which a country may grow due to limited nature of resources , stabilization of demand in a rich economy and the limited speed of innovation.

Where the chinese have blundered is there attempt to ape the developed economy in every aspect. Their growth is primarily investment driven (ie dependant upon increase in production capacity) rather than demand driven. And attempting to make the transition would result in long periods of turmoil. They have a bubble at the stage of development wherein they simply cannot afford to have one. And the one child norm was the most idiotic and barbaric thing they ever did. They ll have the demographics of a developed country before they actually develop. They ll have the disadvantages of a developed country before they truly can develop.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 10 Jul 2011 17:37

ashi wrote:
gakakkad wrote:The Chinese say a lot of nonsensical stuff about us in their CCTV. Like dreams about dividing india etc.


Now I would really like to see some proof of this. It is really rare that Chinese government openly criticize other countries.



http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2009-08-12/india/28195335_1_dai-bingguo-state-councillor-chinese-website

The webpage of your think tank institute came up with the brilliant idea of dividing India. There are thousands of similar examples that can be available on you tube but as it would be off topic I would limit to the above 1 example only. I have got colleagues from Taiwan as well as China. CCP has truly poisoned its citizens against India . Because the ones from Taiwan are quite fond of India unlike the mainlanders. The hostility that you see on this forum results from these facts. One of the things dictators need is to generate sufficient degree of hatred. It was idiotic of ccp to supply pakis with nukes. For all I know they might find there way to uighurs. But perhaps a non democratic society has to to do idiotic stuff . While you guys had the option to team up with India and give shivers to the west you chose a path that can and will be a disaster for you.
Last edited by gakakkad on 10 Jul 2011 17:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby somnath » 10 Jul 2011 17:41

chola wrote:India's growth otoh is natural and follows a well-worn path traveled by the rest of the world's democracy from the US to Japan to Costa Rica. The overwhelming majority of today's wealthiest states are democracies

That is actually quite incorrect....Most countries got rich before they found ways to manage the anarchism of democracy..In Europe - Germany, Italy, most pf continental Europe...Surely in Asia - Japan (they got rich much before WWII) to singapore, HK, South Korea - in fact in Asia, India is the only example of an uninterrupted democracy attempting an economic "miracle"..

In that sense, India's a bit like the US...In fact as Fareed Zakaria says, India's development experience is a lot like the US - messy, anarchic, largely private sector led, and a fierce democracy...The additionality is that India copes with diversities that US never had to when it was gettign rich...China, on the other hand, is on the well worn (Asian) path - a totalitarian leadership guiding a way to prosperity...The question is, is that model viable anymore?

chola wrote:From Tokyo to free chini cities Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei the PRC is looked down upon as inferior country bumpkins. Stupid, inefficient and wasteful.

Not sure where you got that idea from, but fromwhere I stand (and work!), there is immense respect and awe (sometimes bordering on fear) for what China has achieved and it potential...Cuts across whole of East Asia...Everyone's keen for a share of the China pie...They are keen on India too! the difference is that the "fear" is missing...We are largely seen to be a benign force, as MMS said soemtime back, the world "wants us to succeed"....Unlike the popular dictum here, most countries around the world are almost willing India to become an economic success story.....Someone like Lee Kuan Yew as in fact articulated this publicly, many times...

chola wrote:Your question is better posed as when is China's revolution

Thats an interesting point...George Yeo, ex-Foreign Minister of Singapore (and one of the most accomplished FMs ever around the world) once said, that given the nature of Chinese society, they need a revolution every 100 years or so...While the Indian society can make do without it for millennia! :)

Can a command economy, heavily dependent on resources utilisation, become more efficient? Maybe, maybe not...I say again, we are living in intresting times! :)

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby somnath » 10 Jul 2011 18:01

gakakkad wrote:Lack of demand is not a problem . Neither is increasing production capacity. Labour and land reforms can take care of impediments on this front. And our resources are not going to dry up in the next 30 years.

Sure, population is an enabling feature - which is why people these days put a lot of premium on it (like the BRIC reprt)...But economies dont grow via a large population alone, as they taught us in Econ 100, demand is desire for a commodity backed by purchasing power! If population was enough, Africa would have been a success story as well...Resources need to be mobilised, the population needs to be "trained" to become productive agents...And the challenges to do that in India and China are huge, given the scale...Hence, the growth rates being attempted from these levels are still uncharted territory...

gakakkad wrote:Where the chinese have blundered is there attempt to ape the developed economy in every aspect. Their growth is primarily investment driven (ie dependant upon increase in production capacity) rather than demand driven.

Actually not really...There strategy is the classic Asian "growth paradigm"...Exports, using cheap labour and undervalued currency, followed by large investments in local infra....The developed world on the other hand is more driven by consumption demand...

And India is actually an outlier - it is a strictly developing country, but its growth model is consumption-led, which is a developed-world characteristic..Our exports till recently were quite small (they still are, but have risen in recent times)...Our rise in investment demand is a relatively recent (7-8 year) phenomenon...We still are a consumption-driven economy - which is the beauty and uniqueness of the Indian model....A developing country trying developed world models to grow!

Just as we did with our freedom movement, our journey to economic greatness is also a case of making history, rather than repeating it, as JLN once remarked!

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby chola » 10 Jul 2011 18:40

gakakkad wrote:
This is a specious argument. The only economies greater than 5 trillion besides the prc are the American and Japanese economy . The American gdp crossed 5 trillion in 1988 . 5 trillion in those days had a lot more value than 5 trillion these days. The American people in those days were the most prosperous in the world. The unemp rate was about 5 % . The per capita owner ship of gadgets and luxury products was the highest. The Japs have been vacillating the 5 trillion mark for the pas decade and a half.


Americans are still the most prosperous in the world, the recent recession notwithstanding. Japan is still the wealthiest nation in Asia, the last decade of stagnation notwithstanding.

It is not possible to grow continuously. But the best and most stable economies, invariably free-market democracies, will grow over time on an upward slope. It's like traversing a mountain. There will be dips and rises but the general direction is up over time.



1) A population that is saturated with all goodies


Populations can be saturated with the goodies that are currently most in production. But there are lots of things that even Americans will want in the future or even the present.

Now true, if the things they want are not yet in the factories providing the bulk of employment, it will not help the economic picture that much.

But once production catches up with demand, then it will create a new dynamic for the economy.

In the US, they look towards innovation. Inventing new things that people might want. Personal computers were a market created out of nothing by Americans. Before the 1970s, there was no such industry that now provide jobs around the world including the US.

The same with the television before the 1950s, the microwave oven before the 1980s or the handheld before the 1990s.


It is not possible to grow indefinitely . Japan grew till it had a per capita income of close to 40K dollars . Than it stopped growing . Euro economies too faced great resistance to growth once they reached that figure . I believe that their will be an upper limit per capita income up to which a country may grow due to limited nature of resources , stabilization of demand in a rich economy and the limited speed of innovation.


You mean it is not possible to grow at a high rate indefinitely. It is necessary to grow indefinitely unless you believe in complete stagnation at some point in human history when every nation had caught up.

No, I believe that humans will continue to get wealthier until they run completely out of resources on earth but then there is the universe, no?


Where the chinese have blundered is there attempt to ape the developed economy in every aspect. Their growth is primarily investment driven (ie dependant upon increase in production capacity) rather than demand driven.


No the Chinese did not ape a developed economy, if they did they would had put in a free market and a free form of government. Developed economies are entirely market driven and operate under a democracy.

Backward communist/socialist economies like China are investment driven. It doesn't matter if it was the USSR or Cuba, N. Korea, West Bengal or China today.

What China has today is what it had for the past 60 years. What is different with China as opposed to a Cuba or N. Korea is its willingness to accept FDI and the availability of the non-resident Chinese to provide funds.

It is impossible for China to have a demand driven economy as it is communist. Its form of government makes sure that it is inefficient and fueled by state funded investment. They were smart enough to use foreign investment when they can get it. But by nature a communist nation is an state investment driven economy.


And attempting to make the transition would result in long periods of turmoil. They have a bubble at the stage of development wherein they simply cannot afford to have one.


Why is a bubble in this stage any worse than any other? In fact, it is better to have it at this stage than to have it when they were three times poorer in the 1990s.

Again, it is like people feeling "sorry" for the US since the 2008 recession and for Japan mired in its decade-long stagnation. But before hitting those roadblocks, they've already made themselves into the wealthiest nations on earth.

One thing with China in the modern era is they create seemingly disastrous situations -- the one in the 1990s with all four of their largest banks insolvent was worse than anything that could happen today -- and then clear everything away by making the whole nation eat the loses, which means that everyone takes a small hit, and then power on from there.

But the fact that the CCP can hang on gives me great hope that they can weigh China down with their inefficiencies for decades to come.

And the one child norm was the most idiotic and barbaric thing they ever did.


Thank goodness for the CCP. The truth is I can not abide another billion chinamen in the world. I say that that even though my wife is Chinese-American. Or maybe it is because of that and I have to live with the in-laws. I jest! (In case, she ever reads this.)

Stupidity and inhumanity are the hallmarks of communism. You can expect no less. As a rival civilization, you can only hope that your main rival is governed as a People's Republic.

They ll have the demographics of a developed country before they actually develop. They ll have the disadvantages of a developed country before they truly can develop.


Actually, there is no such thing as "disadvantages" of a developed country. By definition, a developed nation has advantages. In general, a smaller population allows for far better living standards. An older population produces less crime and is less prone to revolt. The only problem is welfare. And welfare is only a problem if you are humane. If you are the Chinese communist party, you have no problem. China doesn't have social security. They are perfectly willing to let them fend for themselves. Old people are also easy to cow by the state police force.

But in the end, communism as evident in Eastern Europe and the USSR creates both a stagnant population and a stagnant economy. It can operate for years in this state.
Last edited by chola on 10 Jul 2011 19:29, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby chola » 10 Jul 2011 19:23

somnath wrote:
chola wrote:India's growth otoh is natural and follows a well-worn path traveled by the rest of the world's democracy from the US to Japan to Costa Rica. The overwhelming majority of today's wealthiest states are democracies

That is actually quite incorrect....Most countries got rich before they found ways to manage the anarchism of democracy..In Europe - Germany, Italy, most pf continental Europe...Surely in Asia - Japan (they got rich much before WWII) to singapore, HK, South Korea - in fact in Asia, India is the only example of an uninterrupted democracy attempting an economic "miracle"..


The overwhelming majority of the wealthiest nations on Earth are free market democracies. Every one of the communist nations has been a failure and that included China up until the 1980s. It is far easier to develop a thriving economy without government induced disasters and famines.

There is no doubt that China is the greater phenomenon because it is the single anomaly among communist nations. India is a democracy and democracies, just by looking at the nations on the world's wealth charts, are wealthy. Democracy encourages the development of wealth because freedom always leads to wealth while oppression leads to poverty.

Now can a democracy be chaotic? Yes, but it allows disastrous mistakes from being made and that always is a massive advantage. All nations are far better off as democracies than communist run states.

Now, you argue that some nations were wealthy before they became full democracies. True, but those nations were never communist and the ones in Asia and Europe because far more wealthy under democracies than they were under their autocratic systems which were never the horrorshow that communism is. Japan and Germany in spite of war never killed off 20, 30, 40 million of their own people unlike the PRC and the USSR.


chola wrote:From Tokyo to free chini cities Hong Kong, Singapore and Taipei the PRC is looked down upon as inferior country bumpkins. Stupid, inefficient and wasteful.

Not sure where you got that idea from, but fromwhere I stand (and work!), there is immense respect and awe (sometimes bordering on fear) for what China has achieved and it potential...Cuts across whole of East Asia...Everyone's keen for a share of the China pie...They are keen on India too!


I've been to Hong Kong and Singapore and I've relatives who lived and worked there for years. China might be looked at as a great market but the Chinese are seen as backwards and poor. It might be changing but there is absolutely a view that the mainlander is a poor inferior version of themselves. The long time desis in both places have the same attitude towards those newer than themselves as well. Though the long-time Tamil community in Singapore actually face a reverse discrimination from wealthier NRIs in the IT/outsourcing community.

Now, that might be changing as both China and India grow. But East/SE Asia is a very hierarchical place. The Chinese (from China) and the Indian (from India) are currently at the bottom of that totem and it has everything to do with money.

the difference is that the "fear" is missing...We are largely seen to be a benign force, as MMS said soemtime back, the world "wants us to succeed"....Unlike the popular dictum here, most countries around the world are almost willing India to become an economic success story.....Someone like Lee Kuan Yew as in fact articulated this publicly, many times...


Ironically, as Indians we enjoy the goodwill of nearly everyone, except for the insect nations who are in our immediate neighborhood.

But goodwill doesn't translate into hard cash as the same countries who fear China and encourages us are infinitely more likely to invest in China than in us. The things to remember in East/SE Asia is that only water is more precious to life than money and blood is thicker than water.

Therefore, Japanese, Koreans as well as Chinese in Singapore, Taiwan, etc. all fearful of China, will always invest far more in China because racially and culturally they are similar. But as richer nations they will see the mainland Chinese as backward and inferior. While US and white western nations being wealthier are placed on top of the hierarchy above even themselves. Indians even poorer are placed at the bottom just below the mainland Chinese.

Can a command economy, heavily dependent on resources utilisation, become more efficient? Maybe, maybe not...I say again, we are living in intresting times! :)


How can a command economy be more efficient?

It is best to think of things this way -

a. a free market in a free society is many minds each in the proper field making sure that the proper resources go to the most needed places.
b. in a communist command economy, a few minds (the communist cadres) sitting above the fields decide where things needs to go

b can never be as efficient as a.

That is why you can have massive famines in nations that uses b like Mao China and Kim North Korea. A few decisions by people who are not in the grain fields with no idea where resources should go can create a catastrophic situation.

Now, command economies are better than pure chaos like those in Sub-Saharan Africa. But that is not saying much. Anything is better than chaos.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby gakakkad » 10 Jul 2011 20:30

@ Chola - Nice points- You are a true jingoistic Indian like the rest of us. Kudos.

One clarification however- I meant that the chinese were aping the western infrastructure , not the model of economic development. They have built bridges similar to ones in the US. Bullet trains similar to the ones in Japan. Most of this is for prestige purpose rather than gaining any benefits. For instance the high speed railway line would better serve smaller countries as it would only escalate cost in country of Chinese size. 1500 KM journey by bullet train would be as expensive an an airline ticket. And they have done it with a starving population.

By disadvantages of developed countries I meant the demographic disadvantage at this juncture. The western population like the Japanese is ageing. Like you I am glad that CCP exists in China. :)

@ Somnath- I agree that challenges would be immense. But as Indian economy liberalises further and heads towards a near Laissez faire model I have a feeling that the government wont have to do much. It is the Chinese government which would have to play with economics. And when governments do that results are , well ...............

I agree that we are a vibrant democracy like the US . The chaotic model of US resembles us in many ways. Besides we can learn from the American mistakes.

Anyway these were my opinion . I am neither an economist nor a business major. I am just a doctor undergoing residency training in US. I do have a few chinese colleagues. I don't have country wide data on this but the number of Indian doctors emigrating seems to be reducing .I do have date from my college. . 8 YEARS AGO 24 out 150 MBBS students of the passing out batch emigrated. 3 years ago (my batch) only 5 emigrated. 3 including me plan to practice in India upon finishing education. The main reason for pursuing education abroad amongs doctors these days is insufficient pg residency positions in India . The number is further reduced due to reservations. The emigration numbers for the Chinese docs don't seem to be reducing. They say that anyone who can afford to emigrate does so. Much like pre -2000 India . Private sector in health care is worth 45 billion dollars today in India . It is projected to be 200 billion dollars (not the total money spent on healthcare just private sector) in 2018 . Does not seem big when we compare it to the Americans. But the american healthcare spending is grossly inefficient. And its not due to doctors .(which only account for only 1 % of 2.3 trillion they spend) .

Can we get any national wide stats on Indians emigating abroad ? I want to know the trends over the last few years.

RamaT
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby RamaT » 10 Jul 2011 23:17

Plan for HSR exports starting to hit snags.

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2011/07/08/train-spat-with-japan-heats-up/

After China announced late last month it had filed 21 international patent applications, a key step in making trains available for purchase overseas, major Japanese firms, including Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd., threatened to sue if China attempted to obtain patents for technology previously developed in Japan. The dispute has spilled into politics, too, with Japanese Foreign Minister Takeaki Matsumoto telling his Chinese counterpart during meetings last week Japan was “closely monitoring” the situation, according to Kyodo, a Japanese news agency.


These battles appear poised to heat up, though, as China begins more actively looking to export its technology overseas. China’s domestic high-speed rail market has boomed in recent years, but appears to be on the cusp of a slowdown. The Railways Ministry’s debt has grown alongside public discontent over high ticket prices for super-fast trains, which are too expensive for many Chinese. Railways Minister Sheng Guangzu has pledged in recent months to focus on high-speed rail projects already under construction before beginning new projects.

wong
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby wong » 11 Jul 2011 00:56

^^^^

China just sold 228 bullet trains to Malaysia.

As a Chinese-American of Taiwanese extraction if I should be looking down at my mainland brothers, this is certainly news to me. I guess it takes coming to an Indian forum to learn this "fact".

When two Chinese people meet anywhere in the world, they see themselves as Chinese first regardless of socio-economic status. At least this was true 15 years ago at American universities. From the richest Indonesian-Chinese to the Hong Konger who went to British boarding school to the poorest Chinese grad student to Deng's grandkid studying under a pseudonym and everything in between, there was definitely a strong Chinese identity. The only exception may be the tight-ass'd Singapore scholarship student (surprising since they were far from the smartest or richest of the Chinese).

Suraj
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Suraj » 11 Jul 2011 01:41

I don't doubt that Chinese have a Chinese identity, but having dealt with them at close quarters, there are definitely shades of various kinds of ethno-linguistic tensions, but it's not really meaningful to describe them as broad generalizations. Further, those dynamics change over the course of time. For example, there was HK Cantonese disdain for mainlanders and Taiwanese Mandarin speakers, Mandarin speakers around Taipei area vs Taiwanese speakers from the south, and assorted others. It's no different from India, and anyone claiming all Chinese are some likeminded uniform entity are kidding themselves...

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 11 Jul 2011 02:48

gakakkad wrote: The hostility that you see on this forum results from these facts. One of the things dictators need is to generate sufficient degree of hatred. It was idiotic of ccp to supply pakis with nukes. For all I know they might find there way to uighurs. But perhaps a non democratic society has to to do idiotic stuff . While you guys had the option to team up with India and give shivers to the west you chose a path that can and will be a disaster for you.

Chinese goose is cooked now for ever. By supplying nukes they have made generations of Indians to look at Chinese people

Chinese people please spread it all your people

svinayak
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 11 Jul 2011 02:55

gakakkad wrote: Can we get any national wide stats on Indians emigating abroad ? I want to know the trends over the last few years.

I have the list of 50k indian docs in US now and been doing some market analysis. The US reforms will create demand but with difference and Indians may do most of the work from India.

zlin
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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 11 Jul 2011 04:51

China Boosts Its Export Edge Globally
Even After Beijing Let the Yuan Rise Against the Dollar, Chinese Products Took a Greater Share of World Trade
By ALEX FRANGOS

HONG KONG—More than a year after China started letting its currency climb against the dollar, the nation is a bigger force in exports than ever, adding to its dominance as a trading power and complicating efforts by other nations to wrest away manufacturing jobs.

The latest evidence of China's prowess came Sunday, when it reported that exports hit $162 billion in June and $874 billion in the first half of the year, both records and up nearly 20% from the year-earlier periods. The growth, which came despite economic difficulties in key markets like the U.S. and Europe and supply-chain disruptions in Japan, is bound to boost pressure on Beijing from the U.S. and others to let the yuan appreciate further and faster.

China's closely watched trade surplus widened to more than $22 billion in June, from $13 billion in May, figures that indicate a lack of progress toward the Group of 20 nations' goal of rebalancing global growth. China's trade surplus for the first half of the year, though, was down 18%, reflecting its increased buying of raw materials used in infrastructure projects, which sent the value of imports up even faster than exports.

The export performance comes despite rising costs for Chinese manufacturers. They are dealing with the highest inflation in three years, government-directed wage increases and a yuan that has strengthened more than 5.5% against the dollar in the roughly 13 months since China let it begin to climb—although it has weakened against other major currencies in that period.

How China adapts to rising costs at home has major implications for the rest of the world. Nations in Asia, Latin America and Africa are angling to take advantage by capturing low-wage jobs from China.

While there is evidence that small gains are being made at China's expense in areas such as apparel and footwear, China is retaining its edge because of the strength of its supply chain, and because Chinese companies also are moving production to cheaper inland labor markets, retooling factories with automation and expanding into higher-value goods such as electronics.


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