PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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Abhijeet
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Abhijeet » 11 Feb 2009 05:57



The quality of writing in The Economic Times is not much better than in Bombay Times or other tabloid offshoots of TOI. "The Indian government has become hyper-active"? Really?

As an aside, it's interesting and a good step that the Times is syndicating its content to foreign news sources. I don't know when they started, but I don't remember reading articles from Indian newspapers on BusinessWeek before.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Vick » 11 Feb 2009 06:57

China aims for its own Silicon Valley
Last month, the National Development and Reform Commission announced revised plans to transform Guangdong and neighboring Hong Kong and Macau into a “significant innovation center” by 2020.

One hundred R&D labs will be set up over the next three years. By 2012, per-capita output in the region should jump 50 percent from 2007, to 80,000 yuan ($11,700) And by 2020, the study predicts, 30 percent of all industrial output should come from high-tech manufacturing.

ChandraS

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby ChandraS » 11 Feb 2009 07:07

Singha wrote:big 34 storey building burns badly in beijing
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/10/world ... ml?_r=1&em
:|


from the article:

Firefighters, their equipment reaching up only a dozen or so floors, could do little to contain the blaze, a spectacular wall of flames reflected in the glass skin of the adjacent CCTV tower.


Oh my..what a loss of face would that be :oops:

Just wondering if the Chinese ever considered emergency response procedures and their capability to handle such accidents before going on a building spree? If not they should at least begin to upgrade now to be able to handle such situations better in the future. All the propagandu about the shiny new equipment and fancy toys for the QRT and the $44,000 assault gear for the SWAT teams battling terrorists is of no use in such situations. The probability of such mishaps and accidents are way, way more than a terrorist attack in a police state like China.

And before you get started on the Indian firefighting equipment, just consider the fact that there is some discussion/debate between the fire dept and other authorities with regards to building high rises and the fire department's capabilities to respond to emergencies in such situation. Were there any such discussion or regulations in China?

Added later:
CCTV, the owner of the building property, seem to have taken responsibility for the fire due to use of unauthorized fireworks display.
China-TV-admits-it-burned-down-new-HQ-with-illegal-fireworks-display

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 Feb 2009 08:24

http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/c ... 663058.htm

India to Pass China as Fastest-Growing Major Economy


It is a simple enough statement and in fact China's Q4 growth rate may have been negative, certainly not the 7% claimed by the government.

But why oh why do the Chinese get so worked up? They seem to have a latent fear of India rightfully turning into a colossus. It is only a matter of time. 20 years or 40 years. It is inevitable; get used to the idea Chinkos.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby svinayak » 11 Feb 2009 08:56

sanjaykumar wrote:
But why oh why do the Chinese get so worked up? They seem to have a latent fear of India rightfully turning into a colossus. It is only a matter of time.

Mischevious jealousy

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Prem » 11 Feb 2009 09:07

Acharya Ji,
1962 again in 2012 if growth continue ?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby sanjaykumar » 11 Feb 2009 09:27

Hardly, Chinese are not Pakistanis. They can't risk humiliation and turmoil in Tibet.

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Namibia: China Gives N$65 Million Grant

Postby Hiten » 11 Feb 2009 18:19

The Chinese are spreading some serious money around

Namibia: China Gives N$65 Million Grant
Last edited by Hiten on 11 Feb 2009 18:44, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Singha » 11 Feb 2009 18:34

BW

China's exports plunge 17.5 percent in January

BEIJING

China says its exports plunged by a stunning 17.5 percent in January from the same month last year.

The sharp fall, reported by China's customs agency Wednesday, was the biggest decline in more than a decade and reflected steadily weakening global consumer demand.

It was the third straight monthly decline in exports following years of double-digit increases.

The drop in exports has caused China's economy to slow sharply.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Nayak » 11 Feb 2009 23:38

My cheeni colleague says that there is serious discontentement amongst the masses, but there is enormous pressure put on the disaffected crowd by chanting the mantra of 'collective harmony', whatever that $hit means.

She cited an example that if any tenant in a building wanted to complain, the entire colony would make that abdul's life a misery, sorta like a societal pressure cooker where any deviation is frowned upon.

It's only the peasants from the rural areas living illegally in the urban jungle are ready to riot and loot as they have nothing to lose. The chicoms are really scared about the mass uprisings initiated by this crowd.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby svinayak » 12 Feb 2009 01:21

Nayak wrote:My cheeni colleague says that there is serious discontentement amongst the masses, but there is enormous pressure put on the disaffected crowd by chanting the mantra of 'collective harmony', whatever that $hit means.

She cited an example that if any tenant in a building wanted to complain, the entire colony would make that abdul's life a misery, sorta like a societal pressure cooker where any deviation is frowned upon.

It's only the peasants from the rural areas living illegally in the urban jungle are ready to riot and loot as they have nothing to lose. The chicoms are really scared about the mass uprisings initiated by this crowd.

My Cheeni Banker freind says that there is lot of suicides which is not reported for the last 1 year and earlier.

He says PRC govt is desperate and He shows me contracts for commodities for which govt uses private Cheeni company. Diamond, sugar, cement etc - dropping prices have hit the trading people and PRC.
PRC used its demand and the rise in prices to make money for itself.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby wrdos » 12 Feb 2009 09:26

Hehe,

So somebody in India are predicting India might have a faster growth rate for 1 single quarter?

Three basic facts:

1. It is 1 single quarter only;
2. It is a prediction only;
3. Some friends here and there look to be so excited about the above 2 facts.

I don't know what to say anymore.

sanjaykumar wrote:http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/feb2009/gb2009029_663058.htm

India to Pass China as Fastest-Growing Major Economy


It is a simple enough statement and in fact China's Q4 growth rate may have been negative, certainly not the 7% claimed by the government.

But why oh why do the Chinese get so worked up? They seem to have a latent fear of India rightfully turning into a colossus. It is only a matter of time. 20 years or 40 years. It is inevitable; get used to the idea Chinkos.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 10:36

Singha wrote:BW

China's exports plunge 17.5 percent in January

BEIJING

China says its exports plunged by a stunning 17.5 percent in January from the same month last year.

The sharp fall, reported by China's customs agency Wednesday, was the biggest decline in more than a decade and reflected steadily weakening global consumer demand.

It was the third straight monthly decline in exports following years of double-digit increases.

The drop in exports has caused China's economy to slow sharply.


Obviously you misunderstand the data.
well, because of there are one-week-long vacation of CHinese new year on the January , 14 days of the January's 31 days In China are non-working days.

In fact, ifthe decrease of non-working days in January is considered fully, CHina's real export rose 6.4% and its real import decreased 26.4%. the real total ammountexport+import decreased 8.2%


In fact, CHina's export still porformed much better than other countries, because a lot of CHina's export are basic daily commodities,which consumption is afftected much less than the luxery goods .
Last edited by Liu on 12 Feb 2009 11:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby wrdos » 12 Feb 2009 10:42

You said it.
Usually we need to combine the Jan. and Feb. data to give a more correct picture.

Last year's Chinese new year was on Feb. 8, and this year was Jan. 26. It means workdays in Jan. 2008 were at least 5 days fewer than last year, i.e. a nearly 25 percent reduction.

As for the import decrease, a big factor is the decreasing price of resources like oil, iron ore and so on which consists of the bulk of Chinese import.

badwolf wrote:
Singha wrote:BW

China's exports plunge 17.5 percent in January

BEIJING

China says its exports plunged by a stunning 17.5 percent in January from the same month last year.

The sharp fall, reported by China's customs agency Wednesday, was the biggest decline in more than a decade and reflected steadily weakening global consumer demand.

It was the third straight monthly decline in exports following years of double-digit increases.

The drop in exports has caused China's economy to slow sharply.


Obviously you misunderstand the data.
well, because of there are one-week-long vacation of CHinese new year on the January , 14 days of the January's 31 days In China are non-working days.

In fact, if considering the decrease of non-working days in January, CHina's real export rose 6.4% and its real import decreased 26.4%. the real total ammountexport+import decreased 8.2%


In fact, CHina's export still porformed much better than other countries, because a lot of CHina's export are basic daily commodities,which consumption is afftected much less than the luxery goods .

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 10:50

Acharya wrote:
Nayak wrote:My cheeni colleague says that there is serious discontentement amongst the masses, but there is enormous pressure put on the disaffected crowd by chanting the mantra of 'collective harmony', whatever that $hit means.

She cited an example that if any tenant in a building wanted to complain, the entire colony would make that abdul's life a misery, sorta like a societal pressure cooker where any deviation is frowned upon.

It's only the peasants from the rural areas living illegally in the urban jungle are ready to riot and loot as they have nothing to lose. The chicoms are really scared about the mass uprisings initiated by this crowd.

My Cheeni Banker freind says that there is lot of suicides which is not reported for the last 1 year and earlier.

He says PRC govt is desperate and He shows me contracts for commodities for which govt uses private Cheeni company. Diamond, sugar, cement etc - dropping prices have hit the trading people and PRC.
PRC used its demand and the rise in prices to make money for itself.


You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Inland CHina is hardly to be affected by the crisis while inland china has 60%+ of china's population.

some facts are still there:

1. Nearly all Chinese peasants have their own piece of land and house in their rural hometowns for insurance. So,even if they lose their jobs in cities, they still can live on their own land because their land can provide them enough food and house.

2. Chinese government hoas lot of resource to reinforce the investment ,which can stimulate the economy.

3.CHina's urbanizanion and indutrialization is still going on rapidly

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 10:58

when peple's income decreas, what people would give up buying first,Rolls-Royce or clothes?
Obviously, People usually give rolls-royce.

That is what is happening today.

The exports of the countries who produce the luxery like rolls-rayce decreased most ,such as UK and Japan.
Instead, the export of CHina,who produce the daily commodities,is affected less.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Suraj » 12 Feb 2009 11:19

badwolf: This is a forum moderation note - your username is not acceptable. According to forum guidelines, you need to register with a human name. Please provide one, and your profile will be adjusted accordingly. Thanks.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 12 Feb 2009 11:20

I am glad BR is famous among Chinese folks (wrdos, gudwolf) but please show facts and figures while you argue. Back your arguments with links/proof. It's like aiming darts in the dark.

I request the Mods to discipline the janta.

wrdos wrote:Hehe,

So somebody in India are predicting India might have a faster growth rate for 1 single quarter?

Three basic facts:

1. It is 1 single quarter only;
2. It is a prediction only;
3. Some friends here and there look to be so excited about the above 2 facts.

I don't know what to say anymore.

sanjaykumar wrote:http://www.businessweek.com/globalbiz/content/feb2009/gb2009029_663058.htm

India to Pass China as Fastest-Growing Major Economy


It is a simple enough statement and in fact China's Q4 growth rate may have been negative, certainly not the 7% claimed by the government.

But why oh why do the Chinese get so worked up? They seem to have a latent fear of India rightfully turning into a colossus. It is only a matter of time. 20 years or 40 years. It is inevitable; get used to the idea Chinkos.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 12 Feb 2009 11:41

badwolf wrote:
You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Inland CHina is hardly to be affected by the crisis while inland china has 60%+ of china's population.

some facts are still there:

1. Nearly all Chinese peasants have their own piece of land and house in their rural hometowns for insurance. So,even if they lose their jobs in cities, they still can live on their own land because their land can provide them enough food and house.

2. Chinese government hoas lot of resource to reinforce the investment ,which can stimulate the economy.

3.CHina's urbanizanion and indutrialization is still going on rapidly


For your point #1. Here is the link

http://www.strategicforesight.com/crouc ... asants.htm

The farmers in China do not even have land ownership rights. There are about 373 million peasants forming about 49 per cent of China’s total labour force of 750 million. The land is legally owned by the State and is leased out on a long–term basis to individual farm households. A minority of wealthy farmers connected to the regime control the most profitable land while most peasants barely eke out an existence or have been driven off the land altogether.


badwolf wrote:when peple's income decreas, what people would give up buying first,Rolls-Royce or clothes?
Obviously, People usually give rolls-royce.

That is what is happening today.

The exports of the countries who produce the luxery like rolls-rayce decreased most ,such as UK and Japan.
Instead, the export of CHina,who produce the daily commodities,is affected less.


Please comment about this from Professor Roubini.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/ ... w_stalling

The trouble –however – is that the main outlet of Chinese exports – the U.S. consumer – is now collapsing for the first time in two decades. Chinese exports to the U.S. were growing at an annualized rate of over 20% a year ago; while the most recent bilateral trade data from the U.S. now show that this export growth has now fallen down to 0%. But the worst is still to come in the next few quarters: after an ok second quarter in the U.S. (boosted by the tax rebates) U.S. retailers hoped that the consumer downturn would be minor: they thus placed over the summer massive orders for Chinese (and other imported) goods for Q3 and Q4. But now the U.S. holiday season clearly looks like the worst that the U.S. will experience in decades and the result of it will be a huge overhang of unsold Chinese good. Thus, you can expect that orders of Chinese goods for Q1 of 2009 and the rest of 2009 will be sharply down dragging Chinese exports to the U.S. into sharply negative territory.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby KarthikSan » 12 Feb 2009 12:26

Raghav K wrote:I am glad BR is famous among Chinese folks (wrdos, gudwolf) but please show facts and figures while you argue. Back your arguments with links/proof. It's like aiming darts in the dark.

I request the Mods to discipline the janta.


I've been noticing recently, whenever there is an article comparing India more positively than commie-land the panda pokers are out in full force to hijack the message boards.

They post under BR members usernames! I have seen jcage, nayak and singha on BusinessWeek message boards so far :rotfl:

BTW, is wrdos a human sounding name? It sounds like weirdo to me!!!

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Nayak » 12 Feb 2009 12:33

Dude, I never posted on BW, these chaptay chootiyas got it wrong, fyi I dont post under 'Nayak' alias. There is a uddin added to my alias.

Most of the cheeni faggots here suffer from extreme case of bamboo poisoning as the Chicom handlers forgot to remove the shoot from their musharraf.
Last edited by Nayak on 12 Feb 2009 12:37, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby svinayak » 12 Feb 2009 12:35

KarthikSan wrote:

BTW, is wrdos a human sounding name? It sounds like weirdo to me!!!

:rotfl: :lol: :rotfl:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby KarthikSan » 12 Feb 2009 12:39

Nayak wrote:Dude, I never posted on BW, these chaptay chootiyas got it wrong, fyi I dont post under 'Nayak' alias. There is a uddin added to my alias.

Most of the cheeni posters here suffer from extreme case of bamboo poisoning as the Chicom party forgot to remove the shoot from their poop-chute.


I know a jingo when I see one. I know you won't post anything derogatory about India. These idiots don't even have the imagination to come up with names! But China is the greatest civirization in the wolrd :roll:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Arya Sumantra » 12 Feb 2009 12:42

KarthikSan wrote:
Raghav K wrote:I am glad BR is famous among Chinese folks (wrdos, gudwolf) but please show facts and figures while you argue. Back your arguments with links/proof. It's like aiming darts in the dark.

I request the Mods to discipline the janta.


I've been noticing recently, whenever there is an article comparing India more positively than commie-land the panda pokers are out in full force to hijack the message boards.

They post under BR members usernames! I have seen jcage, nayak and singha on BusinessWeek message boards so far :rotfl:


Imitation and copying comes naturally to pandas. So why would the names be spared?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby krishnan » 12 Feb 2009 12:43

When we look at the zerox copy thing that chinese are doing now, makes me wonder how many of these so called chinese discoveries that they did in previous centuries are actually chinese , like the gun powder

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Nayak » 12 Feb 2009 12:55

badwolf wrote:when peple's income decreas, what people would give up buying first,Rolls-Royce or clothes?
Obviously, People usually give rolls-royce.

That is what is happening today.

The exports of the countries who produce the luxery like rolls-rayce decreased most ,such as UK and Japan.
Instead, the export of CHina,who produce the daily commodities,is affected less.


Image

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby rsingh » 12 Feb 2009 13:17

Our Chini friends are gurus of Bakistanis in twisted halal logic :mrgreen:

Here
Obviously you misunderstand the data.
well, because of there are one-week-long vacation of CHinese new year on the January , 14 days of the January's 31 days In China are non-working days.

This implies that there were no halidays far Jan 2008 end all chinis worked far 31 days 25 hours a day.......so we can not compare export data for Jan 2008 with Jan 2009, when chinis decided to have 14 days holidays :rotfl:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 15:34

Suraj wrote:badwolf: This is a forum moderation note - your username is not acceptable. According to forum guidelines, you need to register with a human name. Please provide one, and your profile will be adjusted accordingly. Thanks.

would you mind changing my username to "goodJohn"?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 15:41

rsingh wrote:Our Chini friends are gurus of Bakistanis in twisted halal logic :mrgreen:

Here
Obviously you misunderstand the data.
well, because of there are one-week-long vacation of CHinese new year on the January , 14 days of the January's 31 days In China are non-working days.

This implies that there were no halidays far Jan 2008 end all chinis worked far 31 days 25 hours a day.......so we can not compare export data for Jan 2008 with Jan 2009, when chinis decided to have 14 days holidays :rotfl:

PLS read the quoted:
However, the customs administration said, after deducting the effect of the week-long Spring Festival holiday, the year-on-year export growth was 6.8 percent and the import decline was 26.4 percent on real term. On a monthly basis, the export volume was up 10.1 percent on December and the import value down 3.8 percent.
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009 ... 467126.htm

If you really want a accurate comparsion, you had better compare the export data of Jan+Feb 2008 with the export data of Jan+Feb 2009

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 16:40

Raghav K wrote:
For your point #1. Here is the link

http://www.strategicforesight.com/crouc ... asants.htm

The farmers in China do not even have land ownership rights. There are about 373 million peasants forming about 49 per cent of China’s total labour force of 750 million. The land is legally owned by the State and is leased out on a long–term basis to individual farm households. A minority of wealthy farmers connected to the regime control the most profitable land while most peasants barely eke out an existence or have been driven off the land altogether.


well, the article is just partly right.
1. In china,the rural Land is in fact owned by the "villages" while non-rural land belongs to "the state". Farmers households rent land from "the village" on the long-term basis.

2. Today, Chinese peasants' land is forbidden to be tranfered freely,because what they own is not "ownership" ,but "the right to long-term rent and use"

3.Chinese peasants' right to " rent and use land" can be succeeded by their kids. So, "the rental right and the right to use" is almost as same as "ownership" ,except the right to free transfering .

4. you exaggerate the phenomenon of " peasants are driven out their land".
how to keep peasant's land is widely focused in China. Most chinese think that it is because nearly all Chinese peasants have their own land for insurance that Chinese cities avoid "slum" like India's. So, grabbing peasants' land would be ass-kicked if exposed by medias.
Furthermore ,it is even harder and harder for "the state" to buy land from peasants, becauce peasant's offer is getting more and more expensive.


badwolf wrote:Please comment about this from Professor Roubini.

http://www.rgemonitor.com/blog/roubini/ ... w_stalling

The trouble –however – is that the main outlet of Chinese exports – the U.S. consumer – is now collapsing for the first time in two decades. Chinese exports to the U.S. were growing at an annualized rate of over 20% a year ago; while the most recent bilateral trade data from the U.S. now show that this export growth has now fallen down to 0%. But the worst is still to come in the next few quarters: after an ok second quarter in the U.S. (boosted by the tax rebates) U.S. retailers hoped that the consumer downturn would be minor: they thus placed over the summer massive orders for Chinese (and other imported) goods for Q3 and Q4. But now the U.S. holiday season clearly looks like the worst that the U.S. will experience in decades and the result of it will be a huge overhang of unsold Chinese good. Thus, you can expect that orders of Chinese goods for Q1 of 2009 and the rest of 2009 will be sharply down dragging Chinese exports to the U.S. into sharply negative territory.


As i know, the export of Japan,S.korea, Taiwan, and Germany all declined much more harsh than that of China.

http://www.chinapost.com.tw/business/as ... export.htm
http://seekingalpha.com/article/111907- ... rd-decline
http://active.zgjrw.com/News/200922/Chi ... 37800.html
http://seekingalpha.com/article/84665-m ... rt-decline
http://seekingalpha.com/article/84665-m ... rt-decline

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby archan » 12 Feb 2009 16:50

badwolf wrote:
Suraj wrote:badwolf: This is a forum moderation note - your username is not acceptable. According to forum guidelines, you need to register with a human name. Please provide one, and your profile will be adjusted accordingly. Thanks.

would you mind changing my username to "goodJohn"?
Sorry. It has to be something like JohnG, G_John or something.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 17:00

archan wrote:sorry. It has to be something like JohnG, G_John or something.

how about "Johnliu"?
Last edited by Liu on 12 Feb 2009 18:07, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 12 Feb 2009 17:08

badwolf wrote:
You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Inland CHina is hardly to be affected by the crisis while inland china has 60%+ of china's population.


Badwolf,

You know massaging data with selective quoting of facts is a useful procedure when you want to paint a rosy picture.

However, you need to be careful where you do this data massaging. It should be on one of the message board of magazines like Business Week, Time etc where the majority of the Western folk don't know where Shanghai is located on the Chinese map. :D

Don't try that here.

Now to get back to statistics. Sure 60% of China's population (actually much higher but never mind) which do not live on the southern coast line are hardly affected by the crisis.

You know why. Unfortunately for you many folks on BRF also know why. That's because they were dirt poor to begin with and so can't get any more poorer now. Right now I don't have the time to dig up the up to date stats but according to China's own figures for 2007 Shanghai's per capita was around $2,500 while the per capita in some northern towns/cities were in the region of US$500. An we're not even talking about poor farmers whose farmlands have either been polluted or taken away. My guess is their per capita would be very Sub-Saharan US$200 or thereabouts.

(India does not have that kind of disparity in per capita income among different regions.)

That has resulted in the biggest internal migration in a country in recorded history. Surely you didn't miss that did you?

But all that is just statistics and that too based on what the Chinese government is releasing. It could be accurate or more likely could be totally wacko.

However, the point that is being repeatedly being made on this thread and which you, Wrdos and other Chinese visitors seem simply incapable of grasping (I wonder why?) is not whether India is growing faster or China is growing faster. Or to put in another way, whether China is less affected by this economic crisis or India is.

The point that is being made is that both are affected and are facing probably the biggest crisis since they started on their liberalization journey - China in 1978 and India in 1992 (I hope you notice that there's a decade of difference in starting time - a lot can happen in a decade, the one in front of us, not the 78-92 period).

China's social structure, thanks to a communist dictatorship which increasingly resembles the robber barons about which Commies used to shout about in the 1960s and 1970s, is much more vulnerable to social upheavals that could occur due to millions losing their jobs.

In India, thanks to a robust democracy, there's an exit valve which releases the pressure. One such pressure release will come in April when the elections will be held and, most probably, the present dispensation will be booted out and a new party/grouping will come to power and will enjoy the goodwill of the people for about 2 years or so (that's standard in India) and by that time it's likely that things will start to improve.

Now does the political leadership in China have the wherewithal of pretending that its business as usual as this current crisis drags on for almost two years - with a fat U shaped recovery - as most analysts are suggesting?

Also note we on BRF know that there's not going to be a revolution with the CCP being booted out if things really get bad. However what's likely to happen in that the hardline PLA backed old guard will stage an internal coup and get rid of the pro-reformers and then announce a series of ill-advised iron-bowl measures.

Will the fragile factory-of-the-world model which China has created survive such a move? (Even if there's no coup it's doubtful if the factory of the world model will survive once all the major economies recover. There's going to be fundamental shift in the way we do business but that's outside the scope of this post).

That's the point to look out for. Not mines bigger than yours analysis of economic data which you guys are doing. (Incidentally read Kamasutra, the Indians knew thousands of years ago size doesn't matter, its how you use it that matters! :D )

Remember that for the 5,000 ++ years old Indic and Chinese civilizations, the last 30 years or the next 50 are just drops in the ocean. For much of recorded history these two countries dominated the globe economically and culturally.

In less than 50 years that equilibrium will be re-established (unless of course your pet dog on our western border really gets rabies and bites us, in which case we'll kill the dog and go after it's master, thus distorting the course of history again). If you guys try to prevent India from reaching it's destiny, you'll end by not fulfilling yours either because you'll have to spend too much energy and effort to stop the elephant.

Think about that bad wolf while you lick you paws as you warm yourself at the BRF campfire.

Cheers!

Liu
BRFite
Posts: 824
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 10:23

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 18:05

amit wrote:
badwolf wrote:
You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Inland CHina is hardly to be affected by the crisis while inland china has 60%+ of china's population.


Badwolf,

You know massaging data with selective quoting of facts is a useful procedure when you want to paint a rosy picture.

However, you need to be careful where you do this data massaging. It should be on one of the message board of magazines like Business Week, Time etc where the majority of the Western folk don't know where Shanghai is located on the Chinese map. :D

Don't try that here.

Now to get back to statistics. Sure 60% of China's population (actually much higher but never mind) which do not live on the southern coast line are hardly affected by the crisis.

You know why. Unfortunately for you many folks on BRF also know why. That's because they were dirt poor to begin with and so can't get any more poorer now. Right now I don't have the time to dig up the up to date stats but according to China's own figures for 2007 Shanghai's per capita was around $2,500 while the per capita in some northern towns/cities were in the region of US$500. An we're not even talking about poor farmers whose farmlands have either been polluted or taken away. My guess is their per capita would be very Sub-Saharan US$200 or thereabouts.


well, your data seems rather outdated or wrong.

In 2008,China's nominal GDP is about 4.22 trillion USD , and its per nominal GDP is about 3200-3300 USD.

The per GDP of 2008 Shanghai, as well as other tier 1 areas like Beijing , Shenzhen and Guanzhou, is 10,000+ USD (nominal per GDP) or 30000+ USD(PPP).

The per GDP of The most costal china and inland Chinese cities is 3000-10000 USD(nominal GDP) or 5000-30000USD(PPP).

The per GDP of rural China (except costal rural area) is about 500-3000 USD or 3000-5000USD (PPP)


BTW,if measured by PPP , CHina's GDP is much higher. But PPP is rarely used in China.






(India does not have that kind of disparity in per capita income among different regions.)
That has resulted in the biggest internal migration in a country in recorded history. Surely you didn't miss that did you?


I do agree that China's regional disparity indeed is terrible. But anyhow, the 2007 nominal GDP of even the poorest province of CHina, Tibet autonomous region is about 2000 USD (nominal GDP) .


But all that is just statistics and that too based on what the Chinese government is releasing. It could be accurate or more likely could be totally wacko.

However, the point that is being repeatedly being made on this thread and which you, Wrdos and other Chinese visitors seem simply incapable of grasping (I wonder why?) is not whether India is growing faster or China is growing faster. Or to put in another way, whether China is less affected by this economic crisis or India is.

The point that is being made is that both are affected and are facing probably the biggest crisis since they started on their liberalization journey - China in 1978 and India in 1992 (I hope you notice that there's a decade of difference in starting time - a lot can happen in a decade, the one in front of us, not the 78-92 period).

China's social structure, thanks to a communist dictatorship which increasingly resembles the robber barons about which Commies used to shout about in the 1960s and 1970s, is much more vulnerable to social upheavals that could occur due to millions losing their jobs.

In India, thanks to a robust democracy, there's an exit valve which releases the pressure. One such pressure release will come in April when the elections will be held and, most probably, the present dispensation will be booted out and a new party/grouping will come to power and will enjoy the goodwill of the people for about 2 years or so (that's standard in India) and by that time it's likely that things will start to improve.

Now does the political leadership in China have the wherewithal of pretending that its business as usual as this current crisis drags on for almost two years - with a fat U shaped recovery - as most analysts are suggesting?

Also note we on BRF know that there's not going to be a revolution with the CCP being booted out if things really get bad. However what's likely to happen in that the hardline PLA backed old guard will stage an internal coup and get rid of the pro-reformers and then announce a series of ill-advised iron-bowl measures.

Will the fragile factory-of-the-world model which China has created survive such a move? (Even if there's no coup it's doubtful if the factory of the world model will survive once all the major economies recover. There's going to be fundamental shift in the way we do business but that's outside the scope of this post).

That's the point to look out for. Not mines bigger than yours analysis of economic data which you guys are doing. (Incidentally read Kamasutra, the Indians knew thousands of years ago size doesn't matter, its how you use it that matters! :D )

Remember that for the 5,000 ++ years old Indic and Chinese civilizations, the last 30 years or the next 50 are just drops in the ocean. For much of recorded history these two countries dominated the globe economically and culturally.

In less than 50 years that equilibrium will be re-established (unless of course your pet dog on our western border really gets rabies and bites us, in which case we'll kill the dog and go after it's master, thus distorting the course of history again). If you guys try to prevent India from reaching it's destiny, you'll end by not fulfilling yours either because you'll have to spend too much energy and effort to stop the elephant.

Think about that bad wolf while you lick you paws as you warm yourself at the BRF campfire.

Cheers!


well, I do disagree your above arbitrary words. You opionion about China is clueless and just the copyrate of western "economists" who don't know where shanghai is .

Just as I refered,

China's land distribution system is much superior to India's. Nearly all Chinese peasants has their own land for issurance. So even CHinese peasants lose their jobs in cities, they still can go home_villages and live on their land. At least they need not worry about food and houses when they are unemployed.
On the contary, Lots of Indian peasants have no their own land .after they immigrate to cities and lose jobs, they have nowhere to go ,but to stay in slum and beg in cities.
Attention: only in Despair and hopeless situation, "rebel" or "revolution" can be considered by people. CHinese peasant's situation is much better than that of Indian peasants. and still 60% of chinese population are still " peasant" "legally"!
As long as CHinese 700-800 million peasant still have land for issurance, it is impossbile that "mass riot" or "revolution" break out in CHina.

Liu
BRFite
Posts: 824
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 10:23

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 19:37

What an interesting indication it is that Chinese trade surplus is still roaring!

"Total foreign trade was US$141.8 billion, with the trade surplus up 102 percent over the same month of last year to US$39.1 billion."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009 ... 467126.htm

If it goes on, this year China's total trade surplus would be about 5000 billion USD and CHina's forex reserves would get 2.5 trillion or more.

How to deal with such a huge forex reserve would be a huge headache to CHinese government,because it cause addtional M1 and global trade protectism!

Username changed to Liu.
see email for details.
Rahul.
Last edited by Rahul M on 12 Feb 2009 20:11, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: username changed.

Raghav K
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Posts: 176
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 12 Feb 2009 20:39

Do you have a basis/proof to support this?

Liu wrote:
badwolf wrote:
You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Just as I refered,

China's land distribution system is much superior to India's. Nearly all Chinese peasants has their own land for issurance


How do you respond to this?

http://drishtikona.com/archives/rural_d ... 001205.php

China Vs. India- Indian Farmers Far Better Lot
Posted : March 26, 2006 at 6:18 pm [IST]
Indian Farmer

Chinese Farmer

‘The economist’ has an article on the fate of the farmers in China. Many in India dos not know the conditions. The problem in India is no less complicated. But in India the ownership of farmlands are more transparent. After the abolition of Zamindari in 1952, the landholders are those who till the land and own them. They can sell them for the treatment of a family member or for marrying the daughter to keep prestige in the society they live in. Some even sell the land for the expenses of the education of the children. Political party and its cadre can hardly take advantage of their positions. However, there may be some unscrupulous cheats. Rather I understand in many places, the land acquisitions even for national projects are the biggest hurdles even after sufficient compensation. Judiciary is very alive to these issues. The article was an eye opener. Should we keep on talking big about the Chinese miracles with millions of farmers in miserable conditions or with no freedom to sell their own property? I get reminded of the plots in Salt Lake, Kolkata that has been given on 999 years lease to the owner. Are the landlords of the house owners of the property? How can you ensure that your own descendents only will use the house for 999 years? And perhaps, the West Bengal’s CPM government wants to emulate the Chinese?

Liu
BRFite
Posts: 824
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 10:23

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 21:44

Raghav K wrote:Do you have a basis/proof to support this?


How do you respond to this?

http://drishtikona.com/archives/rural_d ... 001205.php

China Vs. India- Indian Farmers Far Better Lot
Posted : March 26, 2006 at 6:18 pm [IST]
Indian Farmer

Chinese Farmer

‘The economist’ has an article on the fate of the farmers in China. Many in India dos not know the conditions. The problem in India is no less complicated. But in India the ownership of farmlands are more transparent. After the abolition of Zamindari in 1952, the landholders are those who till the land and own them. They can sell them for the treatment of a family member or for marrying the daughter to keep prestige in the society they live in. Some even sell the land for the expenses of the education of the children. Political party and its cadre can hardly take advantage of their positions. However, there may be some unscrupulous cheats. Rather I understand in many places, the land acquisitions even for national projects are the biggest hurdles even after sufficient compensation. Judiciary is very alive to these issues. The article was an eye opener. Should we keep on talking big about the Chinese miracles with millions of farmers in miserable conditions or with no freedom to sell their own property? I get reminded of the plots in Salt Lake, Kolkata that has been given on 999 years lease to the owner. Are the landlords of the house owners of the property? How can you ensure that your own descendents only will use the house for 999 years? And perhaps, the West Bengal’s CPM government wants to emulate the Chinese?


well, the article is obviously written by the " economist " so called ,who doesn't even know where shanghai is on Chinese map.

The forbid to freely tranfer land is the precondition to prevent peasant's land sold to the rich .
When peasants sell their land ,even for good reasons,they lose their eventual issurance and inevitably become beggars and pour into urban slums,which has be proved in India and Brazil.

Compared with urban chinese,most chinese peasants indeed are very poor.
But anyhow, Chinese peasants need hardly worry about food and houses.which is much better than Indian peasants and indian people in slums.

BTW, I have to point out that no all CHinese peasants are poor.
In fact, in lots of coastal chinese rural area, Chinese peasants there are even more richer than most urban chinese ,because those rural areas are completely industrialized ,such as Pearl river delta and Yangstz river delta.

Liu
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Posts: 824
Joined: 12 Feb 2009 10:23

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 22:05

Raghav K wrote:Do you have a basis/proof to support this?


You are too pessimistic to China's future.

Just as I refered,

China's land distribution system is much superior to India's. Nearly all Chinese peasants has their own land for issurance


[/quote]

Basis/proof?

1.slum.
Have you seen any slum in Chinese cities?
Vietnam also has land distribution system similar with china.
Have you seen any slum in Vietnam cities?

It is not policemen and guns,but the peasants' own land for issurance, that attracts unemployed Chinese peasant stay in villages and prevent any slum to appear in CHinese cities.

2. China's much better infrastructure.
In China, only "the state", that is Chinese government , has the right to "buy" land from Chinese peasants. So ,chinese government can obtain land at a cheaper cost than India.
Generally speaking, When Chinese government "buy" land from "the village",the compesation fund is quite considerable.

amit
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Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 12 Feb 2009 22:13

Liu wrote: well, your data seems rather outdated or wrong.

In 2008,China's nominal GDP is about 4.22 trillion USD , and its per nominal GDP is about 3200-3300 USD.

The per GDP of 2008 Shanghai, as well as other tier 1 areas like Beijing , Shenzhen and Guanzhou, is 10,000+ USD (nominal per GDP) or 30000+ USD(PPP).

The per GDP of The most costal china and inland Chinese cities is 3000-10000 USD(nominal GDP) or 5000-30000USD(PPP).

The per GDP of rural China (except costal rural area) is about 500-3000 USD or 3000-5000USD (PPP)


Liu,

Sorry to say but your post seems to indicate that the bad in your earlier bad wolf moniker was more attuned to “stupid” than anything else.

Your per capita figures of various regions of China make for excellent fiction but I’ll let it go.

However, this piece is a gem – a keeper among quotable quotes :rotfl:

The per GDP of rural China (except costal rural area) is about 500-3000 USD or 3000-5000USD (PPP)


First lets get the validity of the statement out of the way.

According to this link the Chinese farmers per capita income in 2008 (latest figures) was 4,761 Renminbi or US$696.

Yet you pull out (I wonder from which hole) US$500-US$3000! Where did that US$3000 come from????

But lets put aside the accuracy factor of your numbers aside and assume your figures are spot on (a very big assumption I know, but hey we’re here to have fun right!).

If we assume that in some parts of rural China (Xinjiang and Ningxia?) the per capita is US$500 for rural folks, whereas it’s US$3000 for others (Yellow River Delta), doesn’t it imply exactly what I was saying that is there’s a huge difference of income and that’s a good cause of social unrest?

And I was talking mainly about the rural-urban divide. Now according to your data the situation is even worse, forget comparing US$10,000 per capita of Shanghai with US$500 of rural China. Even among the rural folks there’s a six times income disparity!!!

China's land distribution system is much superior to India's. Nearly all Chinese peasants has their own land for issurance. So even CHinese peasants lose their jobs in cities, they still can go home_villages and live on their land. At least they need not worry about food and houses when they are unemployed.


You know I feel really sad to see that you have to resort to outright lies in order to bolster your argument. Sad because I personally believe there’s a lot that’s remarkable in what China has achieved over the past 30 years, which can stand on their own merit, just as there have been many mistakes. But folks like you, in the name of saving face, are too concerned in covering your mistakes to highlight China’s achievements.

Have a look here

China’s 700 million farmers have mostly missed out on the country’s economic boom. In 2006 Vice Premier Wen Jiabao correctly noted that rural poverty and land grabs that strip farmers of their land were a ‘key source of instability’ in China. Two years later, the situation is just as dire.
A raft of reforms recently announced may help. But if history is any guide, the reforms will provide only a superficial fix.
The main, still unaddressed, problem is farmers’ lack of full property rights. Unlike in cities, where owning property is now permitted, almost all farmland in China is owned by village collectives.
Under a reform passed a decade ago, farmers ostensibly have 30-year land-use rights that allow them to till the soil. But corrupt local officials have little trouble stripping these rights through arbitrary ‘reallocations.’ These land grabs result in tens of thousands of protests in rural China every year.
The new set of reforms is being hailed by state media as a ‘landmark,’ but they still don’t give farmers the ownership rights.


Get it this into your head you’ll not be allowed to pull fast ones on this forum and go unchallenged.

On the contary, Lots of Indian peasants have no their own land .after they immigrate to cities and lose jobs, they have nowhere to go ,but to stay in slum and beg in cities.
Attention: only in Despair and hopeless situation, "rebel" or "revolution" can be considered by people. CHinese peasant's situation is much better than that of Indian peasants. and still 60% of chinese population are still " peasant" "legally"!
As long as CHinese 700-800 million peasant still have land for issurance, it is impossbile that "mass riot" or "revolution" break out in CHina.


Another Mine’s Bigger Than Yours Argument. You know that usually comes from a deep-seated sense of inadequacy.

Despite the verbal diarrhea that you spewed, you did not even attempt to answer the central tenet of my argument, which was, that both India and China are in deep trouble due to this economic crisis. However, India due to its democratic set-up can ride out any discontent better than China with it’s authoritarian set up.

I can guess you weren’t taught the answer to that question in the education camps before they sent you as a drone to BRF.

amit
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Posts: 4325
Joined: 30 Aug 2007 18:28
Location: The Restaurant at the End of the Universe

Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 12 Feb 2009 22:23

Liu wrote:1.slum.
Have you seen any slum in Chinese cities?
Vietnam also has land distribution system similar with china.
Have you seen any slum in Vietnam cities?


Liu,

We haven't seen ANY pictures of inner city areas of Chinese cities because photographers are not allowed to take pictures.

Interestingly when Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible III movie was not released in China because it showed slums (along the river bank) which were not supposed to be part of the film!

I take your word there's no slums in China and Vietnam, because the peoples power in Communist dictatorships allows you to throw out people from homes and relocate them several hundred miles away from the cities.

Remember how Pudong airport was built. Officials just came and marked doors with a Red cross and the folks had to get out within a month or the building would be bull dozed with all belongings inside?

But wait, dear Liu, I know the running dog of capitalism Google follows diktats of the Chinese govt and it's quite possible you actually haven't seen a Chinese slum. So here's feast for your eyes:

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1018/117 ... ff3e_b.jpg

Image

Image

Image

The last one is from Xinjiang province where social unrest has and is brutally supressed.
Last edited by Rahul M on 13 Feb 2009 08:13, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: edited image link.plz do not post large images inline. it screws up page format.


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