PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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Liu
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 12 Feb 2009 22:48

amit wrote:Liu,

Sorry to say but your post seems to indicate that the bad in your earlier bad wolf moniker was more attuned to “stupid” than anything else.
Your per capita figures of various regions of China make for excellent fiction but I’ll let it go.
However, this piece is a gem – a keeper among quotable quotes :rotfl:


well, Shenzhen's per nominal GDP supass 10000 USD in 2006 or so and Shenzhen became the first chinese city what came into "10000 USD era".
In fact, when Shenzhen city declared so, a nationwide controvery took place in CHina about "what 10000 USD era should be like "!
Now, lots of Chinese cities like Beijing and shanghai has come into " 10000 USD era".
If you still feel it "excellent fiction ", it just proves that your information about china is quite outdated?
In fact, CHinese tier1 cities like Shanghai,Beijing and Shenzhen are not less developed than cities in first world.





The per GDP of rural China (except costal rural area) is about 500-3000 USD or 3000-5000USD (PPP)


First lets get the validity of the statement out of the way.

According to this link the Chinese farmers per capita income in 2008 (latest figures) was 4,761 Renminbi or US$696.

Yet you pull out (I wonder from which hole) US$500-US$3000! Where did that US$3000 come from????
But lets put aside the accuracy factor of your numbers aside and assume your figures are spot on (a very big assumption I know, but hey we’re here to have fun right!).
[/quote]

Excuse me, do you know the difference between " per nominal GDP" and "per income"?
"per income" is always less than " per nominal GDP"

I think you mistaken those two different concepts.













You know I feel really sad to see that you have to resort to outright lies in order to bolster your argument. Sad because I personally believe there’s a lot that’s remarkable in what China has achieved over the past 30 years, which can stand on their own merit, just as there have been many mistakes. But folks like you, in the name of saving face, are too concerned in covering your mistakes to highlight China’s achievements.

Have a look here

China’s 700 million farmers have mostly missed out on the country’s economic boom. In 2006 Vice Premier Wen Jiabao correctly noted that rural poverty and land grabs that strip farmers of their land were a ‘key source of instability’ in China. Two years later, the situation is just as dire.
A raft of reforms recently announced may help. But if history is any guide, the reforms will provide only a superficial fix.
The main, still unaddressed, problem is farmers’ lack of full property rights. Unlike in cities, where owning property is now permitted, almost all farmland in China is owned by village collectives.
Under a reform passed a decade ago, farmers ostensibly have 30-year land-use rights that allow them to till the soil. But corrupt local officials have little trouble stripping these rights through arbitrary ‘reallocations.’ These land grabs result in tens of thousands of protests in rural China every year.
The new set of reforms is being hailed by state media as a ‘landmark,’ but they still don’t give farmers the ownership rights.


Get it this into your head you’ll not be allowed to pull fast ones on this forum and go unchallenged.

well,
1.just as I refered, most CHinese peasants are still poor ,compared with urban chinese. But anyhow, Chinese peasant needn't worry food and housed. Isn't it much superior to those living in slum and begging in cities?

2.what Premier Wen Jiabao just reflect how seriously the whole chinese society consider the problem of peasant' land distribution system.

3. as for "problem is farmers’ lack of full property rights",the article's pointview is still controversial in china. personally I think any reform should be experimented in a limited area.





Another Mine’s Bigger Than Yours Argument. You know that usually comes from a deep-seated sense of inadequacy.

Despite the verbal diarrhea that you spewed, you did not even attempt to answer the central tenet of my argument, which was, that both India and China are in deep trouble due to this economic crisis. However, India due to its democratic set-up can ride out any discontent better than China with it’s authoritarian set up.

I can guess you weren’t taught the answer to that question in the education camps before they sent you as a drone to BRF.


excuse me, there may be some protests in China. But there are hardly "incidents" with guns and bomb involved in CHina.

how about India's mao Guerrillas?how about the separatist in Asam? how about the continous "bomb' in india urban cities?

which may be more dangerous, the above "incidents" with guns and bome flying ,or CHina's protestors in street?

I am not boasting "mine is better than you ". I just tell you that china would never be so prosperous now if China had been full of Guns,bombs and guerrillas.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby munna » 12 Feb 2009 23:27

Liu it would be better if you state facts and not official propoganda of the party. People here are not dumb Pakis who will swallow all your statement without a challenge. Since you have come down to bombs and Guns argument. Please explain why and what was the reason that 20 -35 million Chinese had to lose their lives in Great Leap Forward an act of economic terrorism sponsored by the party. All the terrorist activities combined have not killed even a fraction of that figure in India. Chinese party has cheated its farmers and citzenry by allowing environmental degradation of the countryside for making the cities look shinier.
Slums! What slums in China? The party kills (rehabilitates) any vioce of dissent. I see that a lot of Chinese porpoganda party people are active on the thread, while you are welcome here but please be aware that lies and comical party propoganda will be challenged and logically dealt with.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Suraj » 12 Feb 2009 23:36

:!: Folks: We've seen this before; someone comes in and tries to start an H&D argument and everyone descends on him. By all means use facts to argue, but personal attacks will lead to intervention from the moderators.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Katare » 13 Feb 2009 00:33

Please stop this pissing contest both Indian and Chinese economies are hurting and so is the rest of the world. Driving pleasure by showing that other's misery is harsher than yours is subhuman/Paki behavior.

Let’s stick to the facts with minimum comparisons

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 13 Feb 2009 03:12

China's Smoot Hawley?

Comparisons to the Great Depression and to other nasty past downturns (Panic of 1873, anyone?) are coming fast and furious these days.

But one thing that continues to surprise me is the frequency with which the US in 2007-2008 is being compared to the US of 1929-1930. I've mentioned in passing that China is in the position that the US occupied in the late 1920s: a massive manufacturer that was generating large trade surpluses, to the point where the imbalance was destablizing (under a gold standard, the US was sucking the metal out of its trade partners; the modern analogy is China's massive foreign exchange reserves). And as the US was the epicenter of the Great Depression, we cannot be certain of the trajectory of this economic crisis until we have a sense of how bad things are getting in China and how good its policy responses are.


Just as the US stupidly tried to increase its ability to dump capacity abroad by creating import restrictions (which has the effect of further expanding domestic production), China seems to be hoping for the same thing by increasing export rebates and slowing the currency appreciation (there is even increasing talk of depreciation).



China needs to resolve this problem by expanding fiscally, not by stimulating exports. The US in the same position sixty years ago tried to do the same thing China is doing (half-hearted fiscal stimulus and more interfering with trade in order to alter the terms in its favor), with disastrous consequences mainly for itself. Instead of looking for and dreading Smoot-Hawley in US or European policy-making, we really need to worry about an Asian Smoot-Hawley.


http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2008/11/ ... awley.html

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 07:39

munna wrote:Liu it would be better if you state facts and not official propoganda of the party. People here are not dumb Pakis who will swallow all your statement without a challenge. Since you have come down to bombs and Guns argument. Please explain why and what was the reason that 20 -35 million Chinese had to lose their lives in Great Leap Forward an act of economic terrorism sponsored by the party. All the terrorist activities combined have not killed even a fraction of that figure in India. Chinese party has cheated its farmers and citzenry by allowing environmental degradation of the countryside for making the cities look shinier.
Slums! What slums in China? The party kills (rehabilitates) any vioce of dissent. I see that a lot of Chinese porpoganda party people are active on the thread, while you are welcome here but please be aware that lies and comical party propoganda will be challenged and logically dealt with.


1.I agree that people should not "swallow all statement without a challenge" ,as you stated.
It is unwise indeed to accept everything before looking into it.
I just hope you have more talks with chinese and look into china more ,before you draw conclusion.
And ,I do think eventually you will find that CHina is quite different from what you think now.

2.'Leap forward" indeed is a blunder and nobody here is ready to defend it. That is why Mao-style socialism has been abandoned in CHina.
BTW, maoism is indeed not good to economy development.india had better destroy its maoist guerrillas as soon as possible.

3. I think I have explained enough china's land distribution system.
It is china's superior land distribution system,instead of "government's supress" ,that pevent slum to appear in China and Vietnam.
In fact, Vietnam per GDP is almost equal to India,but Vietnam also has no slum in its cities.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 07:41

Suraj wrote::!: Folks: We've seen this before; someone comes in and tries to start an H&D argument and everyone descends on him. By all means use facts to argue, but personal attacks will lead to intervention from the moderators.

I do agree .

personal attack should be baned.

it is a forum for us to exchange ideas, instead of personal attack.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 08:48

amit wrote:
Liu wrote:1.slum.
Have you seen any slum in Chinese cities?
Vietnam also has land distribution system similar with china.
Have you seen any slum in Vietnam cities?


Liu,

We haven't seen ANY pictures of inner city areas of Chinese cities because photographers are not allowed to take pictures.

Interestingly when Tom Cruise's Mission Impossible III movie was not released in China because it showed slums (along the river bank) which were not supposed to be part of the film!

I take your word there's no slums in China and Vietnam, because the peoples power in Communist dictatorships allows you to throw out people from homes and relocate them several hundred miles away from the cities.

Remember how Pudong airport was built. Officials just came and marked doors with a Red cross and the folks had to get out within a month or the building would be bull dozed with all belongings inside?

But wait, dear Liu, I know the running dog of capitalism Google follows diktats of the Chinese govt and it's quite possible you actually haven't seen a Chinese slum. So here's feast for your eyes:

http://farm2.static.flickr.com/1018/117 ... ff3e_b.jpg

Image

Image

Image

The last one is from Xinjiang province where social unrest has and is brutally supressed.


1.those are called "urban villages " in CHina.
Most "urban viliage" were villages outside urban areas. After chinese cities expand, those "villiages" are surronded by new-built urban area and become "urban village".

The houses in "urban villages" are very expensive ,so if rebuilting those " urban village", CHinese government has to pay huge relocating-compesation to the dwellers.
Due the expensive relocating-cost, it is still a huge headache for CHinese government to rebuilt "urban villages".

2.They can hardly be called "slum",because inside rooms of those crappy-look houses are much neater and expensive than you think.
Many houses in "urban village" has air conditionors. Anyhow, a house with AC can hardly be called "slum" ,can't it?
Image
Image
The most dwellers in "urban villages" are "former native peasants" or " immigrated peasants wokers"

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 09:11

Liu wrote:
amit wrote:Image



BTW, this photoe seems quite old,because I know the place quite well.
The place is called " Cai_wu_wei(蔡屋围)", the downtown of Shenzhen city, one of the richest and most advanced CHinese cities.
the skyscraper in the picture is called " Diwang Plaza(地王大厦)" .It is the landmark of Shenzhen city.

it is what it looks like now.
http://image.baidu.com/i?ct=503316480&z ... 300&ln=835
Image

here is what "Cai_wu_wei" looked like in 1986
Image

I think you photo was photoed in late 1990s.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Singha » 13 Feb 2009 09:22

so where did all these peasants go? given apartments in that tower?

generally what kind of money or housing is given to peasants and farmers forced
to relocate by developers? how far away are these housing located...people of that
type generally tend to work close by in small industry, small shops, maids, drivers,
guards and so on. how do they commute back to their old employments?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby vina » 13 Feb 2009 09:36

Yawn.. When will these CCP brainwashed automatons understand that this kind of thing is not any dignified "progress" but rather "plogress".?

In fact Cai_Wu_Yei or whatever circa 1986 had lot more character and sense of community and than these bulldozed and white washed and Dubai/Disneyesque looking artificial creation of the Shenzen of 2008!.

In Bangalore, someone could bulldoze off the entire Vivek Nagar, Ejipura, slum area and put some two or three giant high rises, yeah, the area would get cleaned up and it would like very "first world" but is that really "progress", if what replaces those "projects" across from the National Games Village (but havent they already been bulldozed) into some disney/dubaiesque shopping mall?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raja Bose » 13 Feb 2009 09:52

Liu,

Please do your utmost to convince the members here who haven't been to China that there are no slums etc. etc. coz I am not convinced. My parents visited China in 2008 and basically what they had to say was this...the cities look great and very 1st world but the further you stray from the business district and downtown, you start seeing the poorer and down trodden areas and the countryside doesn't seem to have seen any change. Yes, they did see slums in the suburb areas of your cities (so it is not that slums are gone, they were just lifted and forcibly pushed to another area :roll: ) and the 1st world look currently seems to be exclusively restricted to a select few cities which are just showcased. In an authoritarian system you can do such efficient 'cleaning' since the government is not directly answerable to people. Unfortunately in the India despite all the corruption and what-not, in the end every politician serves according to the people's will....and that overwhelmingly includes those poor who live in the very slums they would have to forcibly evacuate. So both pros and cons to democracy depending on what you are looking for. I personally prefer a slightly dirtier but freer India where I can have my say in government. :D

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Singha » 13 Feb 2009 09:53

said EWS flats were unsafe to live due to imminent collapse. the residents had also made a real mess of things over time. now they live in corrugated tin huts and
sweat while money is not yet found to build them "Shenzhen" and JiangMao towers :twisted:

but rest assured the peasants would not have been allowed any scrap of the new development glass-n-steel complex. strictly for urban elites onree.

even in older parts of shanghai across the river, expats say its not the surgical neatness and showpiece pudong thing. read threads about it in web forums.
perhaps something like the older parts of bangkok near the river is the most humanistic middle ground. its a maze of small streets and 3-4 storey buildings of average quality but the streets are generally clean, there is drainage, water supply, electricity , plumbing, bikes and most people have AC and drink govt subsidized bottled water(a H&D thing among poorer thais). there is some rule
of law...unlike yindia, people are not allowed to encroach and extend their buildings indefinitely like building 3 storeys on a 10x10 plot!!

its a few notches higher than most indian "urban villages" like adugodi but the people get to live where they were for generations instead of some resettlement colony 40km outside of where they used to work(the chinese way)

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 10:27

Singha wrote:so where did all these peasants go? given apartments in that tower?

generally what kind of money or housing is given to peasants and farmers forced
to relocate by developers? how far away are these housing located...people of that
type generally tend to work close by in small industry, small shops, maids, drivers,
guards and so on. how do they commute back to their old employments?


1.The ammount of relocating-compesation depends on the location of houses.
If the houses are located in very downtowns or other good postion, the compensation is considerable ,even enormous,however crappy and old the the houses are!
But sometimes, the govenment would refuse the price the owners offered.when the amount of relocating-compesation is not agreed ,such funny stalemates often appear as showed in the picture:
Image
Image
Image
Image

For example,
In the first pictures ,the owner of houses asked for a huge relocating-compensation of 20 million RMB ( about 140 million Rupees),because the isolated house is located in the downtown of Shenzhen, the richest city in mainland China.
In the last picuture, the owner of house asked for 2.5 million RMB( about 18 million Rupees)

2. Beside the compensation, Chinese government ususally has to sell the relocated people new appartments at a cheap price,but the new appartments usually are located in lonely postion far away from the downtown.But for the sake of god, the public communication like buses, subways grows very rapidly in CHina,so people usually still can commut back to their old employment in time,although usually they have to spend more time on the way from their houses to office.
Sometimes ,some relocated people would rather give up such lonely new apartments and ask for more cash compensation.

For example, the relocated people in Beijing sometimes are given a new apartment in ChangPin county, which is 33 Km away from Beijing's downtown. It usualy take 1 hours or more by express-buses to go to Beijing's downtowns from Changpin county.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 13 Feb 2009 10:37

Liu wrote:
But sometimes, the govenment would refuse the price the owners offered.when the amount of relocating-compesation is not agreed ,such funny stalemates often appear as showed in the picture:


Enough of your BS :!: . The last image of the house standing there is because the owner of the house is a member of the PRC union and holds a lot of clout and is refusing to move. Stop hoodwinking BRfites with you POS, try to take it to other forms. Mods, this guy has gone nuts and has made the forum look ugly with all his weird fonts and stupid talk.
Last edited by Raghav K on 13 Feb 2009 10:49, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 10:49

Raghav K wrote:
Liu wrote:
But sometimes, the govenment would refuse the price the owners offered.when the amount of relocating-compesation is not agreed ,such funny stalemates often appear as showed in the picture:


Enough of your BS :!: . The last image of the house standing there is because the owner of the house is a member of the PRC union. Stop hoodwinking BRfites with you POS, try to take it to other forms. Mods this guy has gone nuts and has made the forum look ugly with all his weird fonts stupid talk.


well,

1, PLS no personal attack just as Mod suggest,ok?

2, the last image of the house is not what you said.
It is very famous for the "最牛钉子户("the hardest-fixed nail"). It happened in CHongqing,the wartime capital of China during WWII.
When the picture was exposed, China's " the Law of Property " was being drafted.
So, the funny stalemate and the "最牛钉子户("the hardest-fixed nail") became the symbol that Chinese awareness of Property rights got awoken up.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raghav K » 13 Feb 2009 10:58

Liu wrote:
well,

1, PLS no personal attack just as Mod suggest,ok?

2, the last image of the house is not what you said.
It is very famous for the "最牛钉子户("the hardest-fixed nail"). It happened in CHongqing,the wartime capital of China during WWII.
When the picture was exposed, China's " the Law of Property " was being drafted.
So, the funny stalemate and the "最牛钉子户("the hardest-fixed nail") became the symbol that Chinese awareness of Property rights got awoken up.


Stop your state propaganda over our democratic values. I am glad you became awake as you mentioned above and you should inspire more of your fellow people to wake up.Stop the RED menace on this forum.
Last edited by Raghav K on 13 Feb 2009 11:06, edited 2 times in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Rahul M » 13 Feb 2009 10:59


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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raja Bose » 13 Feb 2009 11:22

^^ who is the wise gentleman in the pic??

Liu,
Unfortunately you can write pages of explanation about no slums in cities in China but I will believe what my parents saw with their eyes last year. What you are describing is 'showcase' stuff not true progress. Good for flashy camera moments and propaganda but lacks substance. There is no doubt China is progressing by leaps and bounds but lets not delude ourselves as to the length of those leaps and depths of those bounds. :twisted:

They also saw some sailors from the esteemed Paki Navy trying to solicit some cheap 'entertainment' from Chinese prostitutes. The sailors were from PNS Tipu or Shahjahan, I forget which but it was one of the Royal Navy hand-me-down ships (Type 21s).

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Suraj » 13 Feb 2009 11:22

RaghavK: Please tone it down. If the other poster is factually wrong, just rebut the statements with facts instead of inciting a lynch mob.

Liu: Let me give you some background. There is a very long history of (dozens of) Chinese ex-posters on this forum over many years, all of whom came running in posting pictures of downtown Shenzhen with the usual 'China = great, India = slums' stuff. It is so predictable (do you have some kind of finishing school where y'all memorize this stuff by rote before getting online ?) that all you will ever get in response is ridicule. This upsets the Chinese poster, who then loses his wits and gets himself banned for trolling. wrdos is an anomaly - I can't recall another Chinese poster who's been around so long. He lives in Japan though - maybe that tempers him a bit ? :)

On the discussion topic, I'm not inclined to take simplistic and absolutist stands on the economic models followed by either country. They both have flaws aplenty. Broad generalizations are for one, not very well thought out, and for another, an invitation for a flamewar. For example, I don't think unfettered migration of people into urban areas before infrastructure can keep up, is a good idea. On the other hand, I think anyone who claims India's lack of development is a result of 'democracy' has any clue what he is talking about. Reality is far more nuanced.
Raja Bose wrote:^^ who is the wise gentleman in the pic??

Ajai Shukla

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Raja Bose » 13 Feb 2009 11:31

In a democracy (esp. a true grassroots democracy like India where political participation is not limited to the elite few) progress is a lot slower since change cannot be rammed down people's throats by the government regardless of consequences...since for every change there will always be a group of people who fare worse rather than better. In an authoritarian regime change can be and is brought about without worrying about consequences (atleast in the short-term). Thats why Unkil likes dictators....so much easier to force Unkil-friendly policies on rest of the country. TIA.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby sudarshan » 13 Feb 2009 11:55

Liu wrote:excuse me, there may be some protests in China. But there are hardly "incidents" with guns and bomb involved in CHina.

how about India's mao Guerrillas?how about the separatist in Asam? how about the continous "bomb' in india urban cities?

which may be more dangerous, the above "incidents" with guns and bome flying ,or CHina's protestors in street?

I am not boasting "mine is better than you ". I just tell you that china would never be so prosperous now if China had been full of Guns,bombs and guerrillas.


Wonder why nobody saw the irony in this. A Chinese poster gloating that there are no Mao Guerrillas in China, no separatists like in Assam, no "continuous bombs...."

Liu, just so you know: Maoists in India are funded by China; "Separatists" in Assam, Arunachal, are actively encouraged by China, which still claims 1000's of sq. km. of Indian territory in that region; bombs in Indian cities are courtesy of Pakistan, which is funded, aided, abetted, and supplied with nuclear weapons by... you guessed it- China. Not to mention all the activities in Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, and Bangladesh, actively funded, supported, and instigated in the first place by your government, as part of its policy of "encircling" India.

Are you seriously telling us with a straight face that there are no separatists in Chinese occupied Tibet or Xinjiang, no bomb blasts in Xinjiang (which your government promptly covers up), no Falun Gong? You get to hear about Maoists and Assam "separatists" and bombs in Indian cities, because India is a free democracy with a free press. Your government suppresses similar news from China- that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Welcome to the real world.

Sudarshan

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby shyam » 13 Feb 2009 12:00

Liu wrote:What an interesting indication it is that Chinese trade surplus is still roaring!

"Total foreign trade was US$141.8 billion, with the trade surplus up 102 percent over the same month of last year to US$39.1 billion."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009 ... 467126.htm[/b]

Do you know why Chinese trade surplus is still soaring? Your propaganda media won't tell that.
Look at the graph below to understand
Image

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 13 Feb 2009 12:16

X-post from the Global Econ Meltdown tread:

vsudhir wrote:Asia times drivel. take with some salt onlee. Still, some nuggests of sense slip through.

China on the brink

Not so fast. The ripples emanating from the global recession may have seemed tiny at first as they traveled across the Pacific, but they are about to hit China with the full force of a tsunami. And there is real concern among the Chinese leadership that the impact may well surpass anything we've seen in the US or Europe. That's because the economic crisis in China is taking on a fundamentally different shape than in the countries where it originated.

The crisis in Western markets began at the top and worked its way down. When the US property bubble burst, it hurt some homeowners, but the real damage it inflicted was to undermine confidence in complex financial instruments and the banks that owned them. It was essentially a financial panic, and the first people to be laid off were Wall Street MBAs working at investment banks and hedge funds.

The effect on the real economy only came later. As big-name banks failed, consumer confidence took a nosedive, and as surviving banks retrenched, credit to consumers and business dried up. Only in the fourth quarter of last year - six to nine months after the first big bank, Bear Stearns, collapsed - did these factors result in significant working-class job losses.

The process unfolding in China is precisely the opposite.


The fact that China's slowdown is originating from the bottom up, rather than the top down, carries important implications. The first is the visibility of the problem. Today, China's high-income urban areas are experiencing a false dawn as banks churn out easy cash to prop up the economy. But quietly, behind the scenes, Chinese companies are revising their profit estimates downward, by as much as 50% for 2008. The bad news just hasn't hit home yet.

The second difference is the solution. Unlike the West, China does not face a liquidity problem, where financial markets have frozen and the government can thaw them out with easy money. China faces a breakdown in real demand due to an over-reliance on external markets, a core element of its growth model that will require a wrenching structural shift in the economy to correct.

Of greatest immediate concern are the social implications. Job cuts are starting to bite in the US and Europe, but at least there the working stiff had the (somewhat ephemeral) satisfaction of seeing the so-called "masters of the universe" get their comeuppance first. Pain has been felt both high and low.

China's slowdown, in contrast, threatens to drive a wedge between the rural have-nots, who are bearing its entire brunt, and the urban haves, who are still living it up. It's a worrisome vision that is giving top Chinese leaders some long sleepless nights, and ought to have the world's attention.


Color me unconvinced.

PRC can and will quietly mow down any rioters in the 1000s (millions, if necessary) to keep 'social harmony' going. A pliant press will ensure the cleansing is local and suppressed. There is and has never been any effective answer to a genghiz khanian policy like that. The bigger guns always win and the PLA owns the biggest guns in the PRC. Just moi 2 centi only.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 13 Feb 2009 12:23

China's slowdown, in contrast, threatens to drive a wedge between the rural have-nots, who are bearing its entire brunt, and the urban haves, who are still living it up. It's a worrisome vision that is giving top Chinese leaders some long sleepless nights, and ought to have the world's attention.


Even a pro-China Hong Kong paper like Asia Times is alarmed enough to write something like this.

Yet our good friend Liu wants us to believe:

China's land distribution system is much superior to India's. Nearly all Chinese peasants has their own land for issurance. So even CHinese peasants lose their jobs in cities, they still can go home_villages and live on their land. At least they need not worry about food and houses when they are unemployed.{And live happily ever after}
>

>
CHinese peasant's situation is much better than that of Indian peasants. and still 60% of chinese population are still " peasant" "legally"!
As long as CHinese 700-800 million peasant still have land for issurance, it is impossbile that "mass riot" or "revolution" break out in CHina.


Liu I posted a question to you several posts ago which you have either ignored or don't want to answer. I'll rephrase the question and post it again and hope you'll attempt to answer so that we can have a serious discussion going.

Q: What do you think will be effect of a fat U-shaped (or even a double L-shaped) economic recovery be on the Chinese economy? Do note that all indication, till now seem to indicate that things will get a lot worse before they start to get better and we could be looking at a 2-year period at the bottom part of the U curve.

I hope even an uber Chinese patriot like you realises that the Chinese market is not big enough to service even half of the US$4 trillion or so GDP if exports tank as all indications show they are.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 13 Feb 2009 12:38

shyam wrote:
Liu wrote:What an interesting indication it is that Chinese trade surplus is still roaring!

"Total foreign trade was US$141.8 billion, with the trade surplus up 102 percent over the same month of last year to US$39.1 billion."
http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009 ... 467126.htm[/b]

Do you know why Chinese trade surplus is still soaring? Your propaganda media won't tell that.
Look at the graph below to understand
Image



The fall in import is even more interesting than the fall in export. IMO.

And that's because an overwhelming part of Chinese imports are raw materials, intermediate goods (electronic components) and machinery - all used in their export oriented factories.

So if imports in mid-Jan was down 45 per cent (I'm assuming the Y-axis is in percentage) I'd be very interested to see what the exports figures are going to be for Feb/March because a fall in imports imply a even higher fall in export [Correction: Dollar value not percentage] because of value addition.
Last edited by amit on 13 Feb 2009 16:55, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby rsingh » 13 Feb 2009 12:53

Liu wrote:
excuse me, there may be some protests in China. But there are hardly "incidents" with guns and bomb involved in CHina.

how about India's mao Guerrillas?how about the separatist in Asam? how about the continous "bomb' in india urban cities?

which may be more dangerous, the above "incidents" with guns and bome flying ,or CHina's protestors in street?

I am not boasting "mine is better than you ". I just tell you that china would never be so prosperous now if China had been full of Guns,bombs and guerrillas.


But mao guerrillas occupied China.......long ago. They control china 400%. :mrgreen:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby vsudhir » 13 Feb 2009 16:33

Liu,

Simple question onlee.

How easy and typical is it to sue the Chinese govt and actually win?
I mean, Is it even possible (coz last I heard that needs an independent judiciary, not a pakistan-style one)?

Sounds like a dumb question, right? Well, why that question gains importance is this - if the govt decides this 'slum' needs to go to accommodate the new china-disneyland, what recourse do the slumdwellers have? A court stay-order? really?

Now, if the chinese peasants have no recourse, why is the state under pressure to offer 'fair compensation'? Or are there never disputes about what is 'fair compensation' under china's superior system? (I can see how that works when the same entity (CCP) is everything - govt, judiciary, bank, contractor, lawmaker, law enforcer, and executioner).

Which brings me back to the chinese system's inevitable superiority in rural-land distribution... if the peasant doesn't own the land but is merely a lessee from the state, what recourse does he/she have to a simple cancellation of the lease?

Since transfer of title is anyway not possible for lesees, what do peasants do when the land is gone for rural redevelopment projects or whatever?

And if the said peasant has no recourse, why should the state bother with niceties of compensation etc? Wouldn't the Kim jong ill style of doing business be more 'efficient', eh?

----
Just wondering onlee.
Of course, let us grant that the PRC system has to be superior because the superior chinese designed it. Having agreed to that, lets us proceed further and appreciate these nuances of how this superior system works to ensure rights, harmony and prosperity to all.....

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby amit » 13 Feb 2009 16:53

^^^^^^^^

Ouch!!! :D

That qualifies for lengthy stay in a re-education camp na?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Nayak » 13 Feb 2009 19:02

I do not understand the policy of BRF, we don't allow goats/camels/wannabee arabee ghaddas from across the western border to spread their filth here, shouldn't we extend the same courtesy to these ball-less chicom drones ?

I am dead tired of the plopaganda that China is great, China is prosperous, China is growing, yada yada yada, ack-thoo, who cares !!!!

They will drown in their own lead-infused sewage of propaganda once the recession picks up on higher gear.

Most of these chaptays are living on beggary in the great white devil's country (USA), while earning their keep by spreading their chootiya ideas on the forums. Should we give them the air to pollute the forum ?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby abhischekcc » 13 Feb 2009 19:41

Nayak, it is always good to know what the other side in thinking. Even if 'thinking', in the proper sense, is beyond them.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Nayak » 13 Feb 2009 19:50

Deleted.
Last edited by Suraj on 14 Feb 2009 01:12, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: That is just flamebait and you know it

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby abhischekcc » 13 Feb 2009 20:20

Nayak wrote: What do you say of the lead-infected-brain-deficient moron who says growth cannot be compared because China has 14 days continuous leave ?


Target Practice on BR :rotfl:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Tanaji » 13 Feb 2009 21:05

http://radar.oreilly.com/2009/02/etech- ... ory-c.html

Its an article about experiences in dealing with Chinese factories

Check out the comments by KT at 02.12.09 09:55 PM]

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby munna » 13 Feb 2009 21:25

Thank god for small mercies for once I thought that mods had a policy of entertaining Chinese party propoganda with no challenge whatsoever allowed even if strictly based on facts and involving no personal insinuations.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Singha » 13 Feb 2009 22:11

BW

China to create blacklist of local journalists

By TINI TRAN


BEIJING

China plans to create a blacklist of journalists who break its reporting rules, state media reported Friday, adding to an array of controls used to restrict its domestic media.

According to a report in the China Press and Publishing Journal, the agency that exercises control over the state-owned Chinese media plans to "establish a database of media professionals with a bad record."

It said reporters who violate the rules or laws will have their press cards taken away. "Their names will be entered into the list and they will be restricted from news reporting or editing work," Li Dongdong, deputy director of the General Administration of Press and Publication, was quoted as saying.

China's state-run media are tightly controlled and regularly censored in reporting the news. China relaxed some restrictions on foreign media during the Olympic Games last summer, but has since backtracked. Sensitive or negative issues are often ignored while Chinese journalists have been imprisoned for aggressive reporting on corruption in the private sector or the government.

The national database is among a series of regulations being proposed to boost government supervision of news coverage, Li said. Among them are tightened reviews for press credentials as well as standardized qualifications for newspaper and magazine editors.

The measures don't apply to foreign journalists in China, who are regulated by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Chinese citizens are prohibited from working as journalists for foreign media organizations.

Li said the measures were needed to "resolutely prevent fake reporting."

Journalists have at times sought bribes in return for not reporting negative news, such as coal mine accidents, and frequently accept cash or guaranteed advertising in return for glowing coverage.

Though bribery and fake news are a concern, the much larger issue is one of censorship, said Vincent Brossel of Reporters without Borders.

"What we've been monitoring is that when the government is saying that they are cracking down on fake news, they are also cracking down on independent journalists and critical reports," he said.

There is a concern that the government is stepping up control of the media this year because of a number of sensitive anniversaries approaching, including the 50th anniversary of a failed Tibetan uprising and the 20th anniversary of the crackdown in Tiananmen Square, Brossel said.

"We don't know what effect it will have, but it is a concern," he said.

A staffer at the All China Journalists Association said he had heard about the proposed rules but declined to comment.

During last summer's Olympic Games, Beijing loosened some media and Internet controls, with the aim of showing that the games had brought greater freedom to the Chinese people. As part of its winning bid for the games, Beijing had pledged to widen media freedom.

But in the months since last August, China has blocked foreign and domestic Web sites, including those of The New York Times, the British Broadcasting Corp., and Ming Pao, a Hong Kong newspaper. It has also attempted to silence a number of pro-democracy dissidents by jailing them.

The Foreign Correspondents Club of China reported on its Web site more than 335 cases of violence, detention and other harassment of reporters and their contacts since the beginning of 2007.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Purush » 13 Feb 2009 22:16

vsudhir wrote:Liu,

Simple question onlee.

How easy and typical is it to sue the Chinese govt and actually win?
I mean, Is it even possible (coz last I heard that needs an independent judiciary, not a pakistan-style one)?


This video from The Onion, the finest news source in the world should answer your question.
Please watch
http://www.theonion.com/content/video/c ... y_has_some
:mrgreen: :mrgreen:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 22:33

Raja Bose wrote:Liu,

Please do your utmost to convince the members here who haven't been to China that there are no slums etc. etc. coz I am not convinced. My parents visited China in 2008 and basically what they had to say was this...the cities look great and very 1st world but the further you stray from the business district and downtown, you start seeing the poorer and down trodden areas and the countryside doesn't seem to have seen any change. Yes, they did see slums in the suburb areas of your cities (so it is not that slums are gone, they were just lifted and forcibly pushed to another area :roll: )


As for relocation and compensation, I have explained enough in the previous posts.
And I indeed have acknowledged that sometimes agreement on the relocating-compensation can't be reached .
And I do have explained that how "urban villiages" , the Chinese "slum" you call,appears , what is the difference between "urban villages" and "slum" and why is it so hard for Chinese government to rebuild them.

If you still think "urban villages"=" slum", then Brooklyn in New York should be called " slum" too.


and the 1st world look currently seems to be exclusively restricted to a select few cities which are just showcased. In an authoritarian system you can do such efficient 'cleaning' since the government is not directly answerable to people. Unfortunately in the India despite all the corruption and what-not, in the end every politician serves according to the people's will....and that overwhelmingly includes those poor who live in the very slums they would have to forcibly evacuate. So both pros and cons to democracy depending on what you are looking for. I personally prefer a slightly dirtier but freer India where I can have my say in government. :D

1st world look is not limited within "a select few cities " such as Shanghai,Beijing and SHenzhen.
In fact, hundreds of small&medious-sized cities and counties in coastal China are also as "1st world look" as Shanghai,Beijing and Shenzhen. Many of them are even richer and cozier than Shanghai,such as
"Zhangjiagan"(http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=798124),
"Xiamen"(http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=560218),
"Dongguan"(http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=522195)
"Suzhou"(http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=501818)
"Hangzhou"(http://www.skyscrapercity.com/showthread.php?t=787794)
Obviously , I don't think you parent have visited those above medium&small-sized cities.
when hundreds of cities with 300-400 million dwellers in look like "1st world like" ,I don't think such can be called "showcase".
.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 22:44

Suraj wrote:RaghavK: Please tone it down. If the other poster is factually wrong, just rebut the statements with facts instead of inciting a lynch mob.

Liu: Let me give you some background. There is a very long history of (dozens of) Chinese ex-posters on this forum over many years, all of whom came running in posting pictures of downtown Shenzhen with the usual 'China = great, India = slums' stuff. It is so predictable (do you have some kind of finishing school where y'all memorize this stuff by rote before getting online ?) that all you will ever get in response is ridicule. This upsets the Chinese poster, who then loses his wits and gets himself banned for trolling. wrdos is an anomaly - I can't recall another Chinese poster who's been around so long. He lives in Japan though - maybe that tempers him a bit ? :)

On the discussion topic, I'm not inclined to take simplistic and absolutist stands on the economic models followed by either country. They both have flaws aplenty. Broad generalizations are for one, not very well thought out, and for another, an invitation for a flamewar. For example, I don't think unfettered migration of people into urban areas before infrastructure can keep up, is a good idea. On the other hand, I think anyone who claims India's lack of development is a result of 'democracy' has any clue what he is talking about. Reality is far more nuanced.
Raja Bose wrote:^^ who is the wise gentleman in the pic??

Ajai Shukla


thanks for your remind.

1. I do agree that :
CHina and Chinese government indeed has lots of flaws and problems to solve.
China's devlopment model also is not perfect.

2.well, I come to here and just want provide a more accurate pictures of China to India people here.

Perhaps because people can't read chinese themselves and has only limited way to acquire first-hand news about china ,people's image on CHina today still influenced by "western medias". Often western medias are not quite reliable .

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions-II

Postby Liu » 13 Feb 2009 23:02


Wonder why nobody saw the irony in this. A Chinese poster gloating that there are no Mao Guerrillas in China, no separatists like in Assam, no "continuous bombs...."

Liu, just so you know: Maoists in India are funded by China; "Separatists" in Assam, Arunachal, are actively encouraged by China, which still claims 1000's of sq. km. of Indian territory in that region; bombs in Indian cities are courtesy of Pakistan, which is funded, aided, abetted, and supplied with nuclear weapons by... you guessed it- China. Not to mention all the activities in Nepal, Bhutan, Burma, and Bangladesh, actively funded, supported, and instigated in the first place by your government, as part of its policy of "encircling" India.

Are you seriously telling us with a straight face that there are no separatists in Chinese occupied Tibet or Xinjiang, no bomb blasts in Xinjiang (which your government promptly covers up), no Falun Gong? You get to hear about Maoists and Assam "separatists" and bombs in Indian cities, because India is a free democracy with a free press. Your government suppresses similar news from China- that doesn't mean it doesn't happen. Welcome to the real world.

Sudarshan


1. Frankly speaking, CCP(Chinese communist party) today is so capitalism that it fear and hate " communism and maoism" more than India and USA.
CCP today is the most capitalism party in the world.
So, word that CCP supports India's Maoist is as ridiculous and funny as USA supports Maoist in India

2.Hardly=never? obviously not!
There are some "bomb" "bomb" in Xinjiang, but we supress it effectively .
In China, guns and bombs are controlled very strictly and it is very hard for the trouble-makers to find enough AK47 and bombs .
So on most occasions , Falun gong have to burn themselves and have no chance to shoota and bomb others with AK47+bombs.


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