PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby abhischekcc » 09 Jan 2010 20:53

satya, I am talking of the inflation that came as a result of Hitler's policies - not the one that existed before it, which also happened.

IIRC post-WW1 Germany had 20% unemployment - this was the cause of social breakdown. It was not separate from it.

PRC has an advantage in export mkt for it exports mainly consumer/day to day use items

China exports everything (low value), including discretionary goods like toys. They will be affected by the recession.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Rishirishi » 10 Jan 2010 02:44

1
In theory the government owns everything, but in practcal life the government lease out land and property rights. Hence the ownership issue is more of an academic rather then practical problem. Yes the government can overturn any lease, but it never does that. The same rules apply in any other country. The government can expropriate anything it needs.

2
The problem of inflation is not limited to Totalitarian countries. Democracies can also start the printing press, which effectively means that they are actually taking wealth from people with savings.

China has a huge foregin reserve, that can be used to stablise the wealth. Chinas main problem comes from its own sucess. There is a limit to how long other countries can keep running defecits with China. Sooner or later, it will have to increase the value of RMB. This may put millions out of job. Further China will have to curbe the huge governmental spending, which again will adversly effect the demand. But the biggest blow may come from a private sector, who has never experianced a resession. They may stop investing and building new factories.

But still China will not be so bad off. will still have pulled off one of the greatest economic revolutions, known to mankind. But the Chinease public may not precieve it like that. They will blame the system for the misery and demand change. That is what really gies the communist government sleepless nights.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby hariks » 10 Jan 2010 04:31

In China, govt practically owns everything. These are my observations from Shanghai and Beijing where I traveled for business and spent more than a month. Every business is setup under the co-ownership of some govt official. You have to be close to the communist party officials to be given the privilege to start a business. The wages of workers are decided by the govt. Infrastructure is provided. The so called owners run it and split the profit with party officials. Competition is controlled by the govt.

There is a huge difference in the quality and price of local products vs imported ones available. The lack of competition I think results in local products not being of good quality. I am talking about day to day items like food, toothpaste, etc. If you look at the cars, most of them on the road are Volkswagen. People stay away from local imitations as much as they can. To my surprise very few engineers (IT engineers whom I was dealing with) could afford cars. Shanghai resident has to pay something like 50K RMB to get a license. In Beijing it is much lower (2K). Even IT engineers struggle to make it in the expensive city. Housing is quite expensive and people have to contend with 300-500sqft living quarters. In comparison, most IT folks in Bangalore, have/can afford cars. Petrol prices are less than India.

Shanghai is a glittering city - looks like Manhattan. My friends told me not to get carried away by the buildings, as their lives were getting tougher.

My impression was that deshland still has the edge in education. It is not just English, if we compare the theoretical knowledge of a candidate with similar degree from Desh and China, Desh was quite a bit ahead. This is not to say that there are no smart folks there. There are many bright engineers, but their initial training levels were not as good as a similar candidate from Desh or US. They are hardworking and disciplined, so that makes up for it. But when you look for innovation, the knowledge base matters.

To cut the long story short, I think all this talk of boundless economic expansion and return to old china is misplaced. It is like Govt is running a huge corporation, and the employees don't really see the money. The management (communist party) does. The balance sheet is prepared by govt as well. Decisions are not driven by competition, so it may take a while for chinese local products to become competitive. Ofcourse, it can continue to be a huge manufacturing destination, where employers don't have to worry about price hikes or employment salary increase/strikes. 7 to 5, every day without fail.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Rishirishi » 10 Jan 2010 05:27

I have been traveling to China regularly since 2002. Hve been to cites like Shanghai, Hangzho, Zejian, Ximan, Shenzen, Guangzhou etc.

You are partially correct, but I think you are mixing up a kind of "party Mafia" and the Chinease government. The party mafia has taken advantage of their power and managed to start many companies, from loans that are sanctioned from co party workers. Some of thease companies are horribly managed and survive on bank loans, obtained from "connections".

But the wast majority of companies have to manage on their own merit.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Surya » 11 Jan 2010 03:06

Rishi and hariks

how about a post in the Foreign travelogues thread in GDF of your visits

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby chetak » 11 Jan 2010 06:51

Very interesting read.

Link via Rajeev's blog Shadow warrior.


http://newleftreview.org/A2556


YANG LIAN
DARK SIDE OF THE CHINESE MOON

A growing literature in recent years has documented the disparity between rural and urban living standards in China, and the deteriorating situation of the country’s 900 million peasants. Li Changping’s bestselling Telling the Prime Minister the Truth, He Qinglian’s Modernization’s Pitfall and other pathbreaking works have explored the social costs of China’s headlong economic development. Intellectual journals and the popular press alike have devoted acres of space to the crisis in the countryside. Amid this ferment, Chen Guidi and Wu Chuntao’s Survey of Chinese Peasants stands out for its vivid narratives of peasant life and for the real voices of the toilers that speak from its pages. Not only does it name the names, one after another, of the petty local tyrants whose abuses and brutalities make these agricultural labourers’ lives a living hell. The Survey also raises the underlying political question of how this situation came about.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Sanjay M » 11 Jan 2010 08:34

Investment Guru Forecasts China Economic Collapse

http://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/08/busin ... hanos.html

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 12 Jan 2010 09:47

http://money.cnn.com/video/news/2010/01/11/n_china_consumers.cnnmoney/

China: Too big to ignore

By Paul R. La Monica, editor at largeJanuary 11, 2010: 1:30 PM ET


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- If the global economy really does rebound this year, guess what country is likely to lead the way? Hint: it's not the United States.

China is increasingly showing signs of economic life that aren't yet evident elsewhere.

Last week, a Chinese trade organization reported that 13.6 million cars were sold in China in 2009, making China the biggest market for autos for the first time. By way of comparison, 10.4 million vehicles were sold in the United States last year.

And on Monday, China said that its exports rose nearly 18% in December. That was the first gain after 13 consecutive year-over-year declines. What's more, the increase allowed China to top Germany as the world's largest exporter of goods in 2009.

So what's this mean for the United States and the global economy at large? Well, much like Glenn Close in "Fatal Attraction," these numbers show that China's not going to be ignored.

"There is a very good case you can make that focusing on the G-7 five years from now will not be as important as focusing on the G-2. And the G-2 will be the United States and China," said Fred Fraenkel, chairman of investment policy with Beacon Trust Company, a money manager in Madison, N.J. "China won't be as big as the U.S. by then but they are getting closer and they will be the second most important economy."

As I've pointed out in this column numerous times, China (like it or not) has a lot of influence over the U.S. economy simply because it is the largest foreign holder of U.S. debt.

At the same time, China's position as the world's largest exporter rankles many, particularly since other nations have long argued that the Chinese government does several things to make Chinese goods more competitive, such as keeping its currency, the yuan, artificially low.

January Yen, head of Chinese equities at Auerbach Grayson, a broker dealer based in New York, said that if exports continue to bounce back in the next few months, China will face even more pressure to let the yuan appreciate. But Yen added that China is unlikely to take such action until the second half of the year at the earliest.

Still, it may not take that long. There has been a mini-trade war brewing between China and the United States. America slapped tariffs on Chinese-made tires last fall, and China responded with tough talk about investigating "dumping" of auto parts and chickens by U.S. companies on the Chinese market.

Protectionist trade policies won't really do either country any good. And if the U.S. economy is indeed improving, China will not want to miss out on cashing in on a rejuvenated U.S. consumer.

With that in mind, Joanne Thornton, trade policy analyst with Concept Capital's Washington Research Group, thinks China may bow to calls to boost the yuan sooner rather than later.

"We are coming up to a crunch point but China will probably be more comfortable with a stronger exchange rate now that exports are growing again," Thornton said.

Don't forget how much China is importing
Still, the China story is not just about exports. China is buying a lot more from abroad as well. In fact, imports in China surged 56% in December from a year ago. So China's trade surplus actually shrunk from November.


Of course, it's still a surplus and not a deficit. But the point is that China is not just pumping out cheap goods at the expense of U.S. producers.

"China is going from being a supplier of things to the world to a demander of things from the world at an incredibly rapid pace," Fraenkel said.

With that in mind, Fraenkel said that some U.S. companies are seeking to take advantage of the growth in imports. So China's growth should not be viewed as entirely a negative for the United States.

Fraenkel added that his firm invests in several companies that he thinks are doing a good job of making inroads in China, such as Chevron (CVX, Fortune 500), Caterpillar (CAT, Fortune 500), semiconductor company Qualcomm (QCOM, Fortune 500) and fast food chain owner Yum! Brands (YUM, Fortune 500).

"It's important to have a two-way flow of trade with China. There are companies that are figuring out they can do way better selling to the faster-growing part of the world," Fraenkel said.

Still, China's explosive growth may also be creating some problems. Several prominent hedge fund managers, including Jim Chanos, have been airing concerns about how China may be the next big bubble waiting to pop.

Fraenkel does not agree with the China bears. But Yen said there's merit to the bubble argument, particularly when it comes to soaring property values in China. (Sound familiar?) And if there is a crash in China, that could be bad news for the rest of the world.

"China has been leading the global economy for the past year. It has been helping to lead the world out of the financial crisis," Yen said.

So while it may be tempting to take an isolationist stance and root for China's economy to cool off, that really would not do the United States any good.

"The trade deficit stands out politically," Thornton said. "But China's imports have held up better than their exports. So it's not all black and white. The U.S. benefits from a healthy China."

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby vina » 12 Jan 2010 14:54

zlin wrote:China: Too big to ignore


True. However China is becoming too big to ignore for all the wrong reasons as well. Consider this.. incubator of ghastly diseases like SARS and a culture of "shame/face" that denies it and tries to hide stuff. Similar response with the fake milk and fake medicines with equally tragic end results. I wonder how anyone in China can buy a locally made Chinese product for internal market with any degree of confidence. Every thing seems to be fake, a facade really and the only thing that seems to be outstanding is the quality of the copy in the fake packaging.

Consider this ..Fake Bosch Auto Parts Found in the China pavilion in the Delih Auto Expo 2010

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby amol.p » 12 Jan 2010 17:52

China raises banks' reserve requirements

China's central bank on Tuesday said it was raising banks' reserve requirements by 0.5 percentage points, effective January 18, in the clearest sign yet that it has begun to tighten monetary policy.

http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Chi ... 437460.cms

seems like china is trying to tame the bubble and ride over it...

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 12 Jan 2010 19:09

this whole high intensity discharge white lamp business is getting ridiculous. first it was the high end cars. now people are buying philips replacement headlamps for their mid and small cars, throwing out the halogen lamps.

yesterday I was blinded by a 100cc bike sporting a white lamp :eek:

I believe there are some regulations, but nobody is enforcing it.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 12 Jan 2010 19:25

vina wrote:
zlin wrote:China: Too big to ignore


True. However China is becoming too big to ignore for all the wrong reasons as well. Consider this.. incubator of ghastly diseases like SARS and a culture of "shame/face" that denies it and tries to hide stuff. Similar response with the fake milk and fake medicines with equally tragic end results. I wonder how anyone in China can buy a locally made Chinese product for internal market with any degree of confidence. Every thing seems to be fake, a facade really and the only thing that seems to be outstanding is the quality of the copy in the fake packaging.

Consider this ..Fake Bosch Auto Parts Found in the China pavilion in the Delih Auto Expo 2010


I have to agree that the Chinese are very image concious, but on the contrary I find some Indians having no sense of shame, especially the GOI. Telling the whole world a grand Commonwealth Games, but now what do we see? It is due to the fact that these people really work hard to prove their worthiness makes me admire them. Of course, hiding things is part of the side effect. Please no more racist attacks on other people. Concentrate on economic discussions please.

I would really like to believe their whole economy is base on low quality fake products. But the reality I have seen is a different thing altogether. It is producing EVERYTHING, from FAKEPRODUCTS to competitive products and yes even branded products by MNCs. For India to survive, we need to produce everything, IT can't feed us all my friend.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 12 Jan 2010 19:57

hariks wrote:In China, govt practically owns everything. These are my observations from Shanghai and Beijing where I traveled for business and spent more than a month. Every business is setup under the co-ownership of some govt official. You have to be close to the communist party officials to be given the privilege to start a business. The wages of workers are decided by the govt. Infrastructure is provided. The so called owners run it and split the profit with party officials. Competition is controlled by the govt. .


Hariks, you in China? Which part are you in? I was in Shanghai, Beijing and Hangzhou for the past two years. Yes, alot of business expecially the big ones are actually semi-owned by government, some are private run but government funded. But small and medium sized industries are mostly private or semi private not state owned. My suppliers were mostly private with some government backing. All operating on so called market principles, and no, they are not iron rice bowls, if they cannot make a profit, they die. The CCP only bail out strategic industries. Wages are low by international standards, but again, its a supply and demand thing, its not fixed, the government gives a guideline, but it is the owners that will pay accoridng to supply. However, their wages are roughly 2.5 times more than our workers.Competition among the big SOEs is controlled, but they always create two competiting SOEs to balance off each other. As for SMEs, it's a all out cut throat war.




There is a huge difference in the quality and price of local products vs imported ones available. The lack of competition I think results in local products not being of good quality. I am talking about day to day items like food, toothpaste, etc. If you look at the cars, most of them on the road are Volkswagen. People stay away from local imitations as much as they can. To my surprise very few engineers (IT engineers whom I was dealing with) could afford cars. Shanghai resident has to pay something like 50K RMB to get a license. In Beijing it is much lower (2K). Even IT engineers struggle to make it in the expensive city. Housing is quite expensive and people have to contend with 300-500sqft living quarters. In comparison, most IT folks in Bangalore, have/can afford cars. Petrol prices are less than India.


Again, daily goods fall into three categories, cheap ones, moderate ones and expensive ones, all made in China. It is just waht you are willing to pay. You can get made in china colgate, darlie and also some chini cheapos. For cars, if they have money, of course they go for foreign brands much like why Indians buy Hondas and Toyotas, else they will jsut have to be contented with a SAIC. And the VW are made in China too in a JV.

May I know their wages for those IT Engineers and how does it compare to Indians? Last time I was in Shnghai they were trying to reduce traffic by imposing these levies. Housing is definitely expensive.



Shanghai is a glittering city - looks like Manhattan. My friends told me not to get carried away by the buildings, as their lives were getting tougher.

Very true, more graduatea, big population. Now you see their wisdom in population control.

My impression was that deshland still has the edge in education. It is not just English, if we compare the theoretical knowledge of a candidate with similar degree from Desh and China, Desh was quite a bit ahead. This is not to say that there are no smart folks there. There are many bright engineers, but their initial training levels were not as good as a similar candidate from Desh or US. They are hardworking and disciplined, so that makes up for it. But when you look for innovation, the knowledge base matters.

Again, it depends on what you are willing to pay and from which Uni you hire. They are the same like us, they have the top schools, the moderate ones and the low level ones. The ones I recruited from are very bright with good theoretical knowledge but lack English proficiency.


To cut the long story short, I think all this talk of boundless economic expansion and return to old china is misplaced. It is like Govt is running a huge corporation, and the employees don't really see the money. The management (communist party) does. The balance sheet is prepared by govt as well. Decisions are not driven by competition, so it may take a while for chinese local products to become competitive. Ofcourse, it can continue to be a huge manufacturing destination, where employers don't have to worry about price hikes or employment salary increase/strikes. 7 to 5, every day without fail


Whether they succeed or not is their problem. Employees see their money in their salary, you think TATA employees see the money? It is the same capitalistic system only this time the corporation is the country. You want to see salary hikes, wait till their population falls, now it seems, supply outstrips demand. Each SOE is run like a private company, you have to survive on your own. This is where you fail to understand the system, competition is extreme at the SME level, the big SOEs have a duopoly sort of competition. If they were no competition, they wouldn't have to export, for them to keep on exporting, they have to compete with the world and that too with wages 2.5 times of ours. We have the cost advantage but not a system advantage.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby vina » 13 Jan 2010 07:16

Prasanth wrote:I have to agree that the Chinese are very image concious


Haw. Yawnn. Another misguided /unguided drone who cannot make out the difference between "face " and "image" vs "shame". The Chinese govt especially has no shame. The only thing they care about is their "image" or rather H&D as the Pakis would put it or ecchaandee as BRF would put it so that no one talks about it.

I would really like to believe their whole economy is base on low quality fake products. But the reality I have seen is a different thing altogether. It is producing EVERYTHING, from FAKEPRODUCTS to competitive products and yes even branded products by MNCs .


Ah.. True, True. Before you bust a capillary or something from all that self righteousness, you forgot that theft and grand larceny too are part of that mix. Interesting eh ?

Google Citing Cyber Attacks Threatens to Exit China

Gory details about how 35 companies were targeted for all sorts of things, including IP theft at the Official Google Blog , by the Corp Development and Chief Legal Officer

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 13 Jan 2010 09:18

Haw. Yawnn. Another misguided /unguided drone who cannot make out the difference between "face " and "image" vs "shame". The Chinese govt especially has no shame. The only thing they care about is their "image" or rather H&D as the Pakis would put it or ecchaandee as BRF would put it so that no one talks about it.


Dey Thamby,

Don't try to get personal with me ok ? It's a cultural thing with the Chinese to take care of their image by reducing shame. Comprehendo, it's all connected, so don't try to play around with words. If the Chinese government have no sense of shame like the Delhi Corp, then it would have hosted the worst Olympics, not the best. To save face, and reduce shame caused by the Tibetans, they had to shut them up, by any means. The difference is that they are DOING things, not just TALKING. If they have no sense of shame, and also do not want to save face nor take care of their image, they wouldn't have built world class infrastructure, made sure the population is well fed, well read and clear off their slums by building cheap housing. So when you touch down the airport, ask yourself, who has a sense of shame? Who takes care of their image? And who can save their face infront of tourists? Nw you understand why millions of tourist visit their country instead of ours? Tiny Singapore has more visitors than us! And you have no idea how tiny they are.




Ah.. True, True. Before you bust a capillary or something from all that self righteousness, you forgot that theft and grand larceny too are part of that mix. Interesting eh ?

Google Citing Cyber Attacks Threatens to Exit China

Gory details about how 35 companies were targeted for all sorts of things, including IP theft at the Official Google Blog , by the Corp Development and Chief Legal Officer


I did not forget, I just didn't mention it. They beg, steal, borrow, buy and transfer. And I admire them for their determination and strategic thinking. This is the reason why they can produce everything, you think the amrikans just give you free things? They would give you half the blueprint and expect you to pay for consultancy for the other half that will not get transfered. So forever there is a dpendency.

Btw, google relocate? Come on even if they relocate, the piracy will still continue. You do not have to get into their building to pirate stuff man, you just hack into their systems n you can do it anywhere.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby vina » 13 Jan 2010 10:47

Prasanth wrote:Dey Thamby, It's a cultural thing with the Chinese to take care of their image by reducing shame. Comprehendo, it's all connected,

Hmm. Okay Anna. How about trying to "reduce" shame by not actually doing "shameful" things ? :mrgreen:

so don't try to play around with words. If the Chinese government have no sense of shame like the Delhi Corp, then it would have hosted the worst Olympics, not the best.


True. True. "Best Olympics" surely. Best because they spent $50b?. Because they were so concerned that they had to have Faking scandal over girl who sang in the opening ceremony because the original singer was not "cute enough" ..oops have to save face onree.. ? Best olympics becuase most of Bejing folks and others were "advised" to watch the spectacle on TV and not actually participate and the venues were packed with carefully screenened and "fully minded" sheep ? Dont sound like the "best" olympics to me. Yeah. But what would I know. Nice TV spectacle and $50b spent so best as the propah ganda of the Chi com folks would tell you.

To save face, and reduce shame caused by the Tibetans, they had to shut them up, by any means. The difference is that they are DOING things, not just TALKING.

Err. Isn't murder and oppression fundamentally wrong and inhuman ?. Oh. I see for saving "face" and "reducing shame" , that is fine I suppose. How about not doing it in the first place and not having "shame", rather than do it and then cover ?.

I think I prefer TALKING to DOING , if what they are DOING to Tibetans is some kind of standard you want to hold countries and people to.

made sure the population is well fed, well read and clear off their slums by building cheap housing.

Err. I dont think the kids that drank Sanlu milk and the adulterated medicine folks would particularly agree with the well fed and neat and tidy part of it.

As for "cheap housing" by "clearing slums" I dont think the slum dwellers had any particular say in the business at all. And of course, one should look to see how many "former slum dwellers" actually got to live in the new shiny towers that got built in their at the sites where their former bull dozed homes stood.

So when you touch down the airport, ask yourself, who has a sense of shame? Who takes care of their image? And who can save their face infront of tourists?

I think it is more important to be able to look at your face in the mirror and see if you like it, rather than "save face" in front of tourists !

Nw you understand why millions of tourist visit their country instead of ours? Tiny Singapore has more visitors than us! And you have no idea how tiny they are.


err.. I do have an idea of how tiny Singapore is . I have actually lived there. But , despite your long winded explanation about China's "Need to save face and Shame" , I havent been able to make out why Singapore has more visitors than India! . Last time I looked, they were two separate countries separated by around 3000 kms or so !

I did not forget, I just didn't mention it. They beg, steal, borrow, buy and transfer. And I admire them for their determination and strategic thinking.

Ah. Virtues of criminal behavior. Sure.. sure..

You do not have to get into their building to pirate stuff man, you just hack into their systems n you can do it anywhere.

Ah.. Sort of put your foot into your mouth haven't you ?. If they can "make everything" as you claim, why will they need to pirate and steal stuff ? :rotfl: :rotfl: . Sure they make a lot of great stuff like DSP chips and processors like God Son or God father or whatever (just google the sordid story behind relabling the chips for that).

As far as I can see, they haven't been able to come up with anything of consequence besides commoditized stuff with generic knowledge . For all their noises in high tech and everything , even with companies like Huawei , their strengths have been manufacturing and cost based stuff in generic areas . Nothing path breaking or innovative or a gold standard in quality and excellence. Go on.. point to me 3 areas /products where they are absolutely the top drawer/ best in anything (high tech, general industry , services etc).

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby niran » 13 Jan 2010 11:19

vina wrote:Nothing path breaking or innovative or a gold standard in quality and excellence. Go on.. point to me 3 areas /products where they are absolutely the top drawer/ best in anything (high tech, general industry , services etc).

1. IP theft
2. Most stringent Internet Firewall
3. Highest Number of Dissidents Jailed, Prosecuted and Killed.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 13 Jan 2010 14:41

Hmm. Okay Anna. How about trying to "reduce" shame by not actually doing "shameful" things ? :mrgreen:


Well, it's up to them to figure out how to do Machiavellian things without looking bad. Try the American way, bribe the media and even a war that killed 1 million civilians will look like liberation. It’s the same thing in Tiananmen, if only they had learnt proper modern crowd control methodologies. Things could have been different.

What I am trying to explain to you is, we Indians need to understand the concept of 'shame', saving face, image conscious or whatever you call it. You know how disgusted I get when my colleagues send me pictures of my fellow countrymen squatting and shitting in broad day light under the Delhi Metro and that too in droves. Damn, I have been to many third world countries, but India is the only place where people can just take off their pants and shit right in front of you under the engineering marvel Delhi Metro. At least in other countries, people do it behind some sort of enclosure or bushes or even dig a hole. The worst thing is even the women do it, SHAME? FACE SAVING? DIGNITY? IMAGE? Do we have any dignity when our mothers and sisters have bare their asses and pee in public? And all you could do is tell me how a young girl is miming in the Olympics as shame? :evil:

How do you think I feel? But of course don’t overdo it like the Chinis to the extent of hiding certain things. I can say Chinis and Yindoos are two extremes, one extremely image conscious, one is just plain shameless. We need to get the balance right.


True. True. "Best Olympics" surely. Best because they spent $50b?. Because they were so concerned that they had to have Faking scandal over girl who sang in the opening ceremony because the original singer was not "cute enough" ..oops have to save face onree.. ? Best olympics becuase most of Bejing folks and others were "advised" to watch the spectacle on TV and not actually participate and the venues were packed with carefully screenened and "fully minded" sheep ? Dont sound like the "best" olympics to me. Yeah. But what would I know. Nice TV spectacle and $50b spent so best as the propah ganda of the Chi com folks would tell you.


So what does a girl singing in Olympics got to do with the performance and coordination and resource planning into one of the best Olympics ever? Dude, it’s their problem if they wanted to choose SRK or Jackie Chan to sing. Putting down a grand effort and hard work to just a little girl singing is just plain prejudice. You do know the entire Aussie choir during Sydney 2000 was miming a recorded tune right?


Well, they put an effort in screening proper people before letting them in, that’s a little too much in my opinion, but it is this kind of attention and determination that ensured a good Olympics.

Of course as usual they are overdoing it. But can you ignore the fact that the Olympics was orderly, well executed and people were safe? Isn’t it a bit racist to call people sheeps? Imagine if a gazillion Chinese flooded to the venues due to Olympic fever….what would have happen if one bomb exploded? Sometimes, I think westerners scrutinize China too much due to the Communist label, but time and time again, they had defied conventional logic. If India hosted the Olympics, I couldn’t imagine the crowd control, it will be like the daily commuter train scene with people crowding until the train doors.

If they do screening to ensure safety and proper crowd control, it’s a commendable effort, can India do the same? We can’t even finish simple sport venues for god’s sake let alone plan, execute and coordinate this mammoth undertaking. Until the day we can proudly organize an Olympics, I think we shouldn’t sound like a sour grape. Again, do you know what the 50 billion were spent on? If you did some research you would have noticed that the bulk of it was into infrastructure that was to be upgraded and built , regardless of whether they were hosting an Olympics.

The question is very very simple, CAN INDIA HOST AN OLYMPICS? The day my Bharat can do it....You can say anything about China, and I will sing the tune with you. Answer this simple question thamby......... :twisted:






Err. Isn't murder and oppression fundamentally wrong and inhuman ?. Oh. I see for saving "face" and "reducing shame" , that is fine I suppose. How about not doing it in the first place and not having "shame", rather than do it and then cover ?.
I think I prefer TALKING to DOING , if what they are DOING to Tibetans is some kind of standard you want to hold countries and people to.


If we had done something about the madrassah, the naxalites, we wouldn't have a third of our country under threat. Constant riots, hartals whatever protest by almost every organized form of human. I am not calling for murder, they want to kill rebels, its their problem.

I don’t like them killing Tibetans, but if Kashmiris want to carve out my Bharat, I don’t mind silencing their key personnel. It’s a war you know thamby, nice guys finish last. :)


Err. I dont think the kids that drank Sanlu milk and the adulterated medicine folks would particularly agree with the well fed and neat and tidy part of it.

Again, what makes you think it isn't happening in India? I have seen how milk men dilute milk with melamine too. The point here is they have a problem with quality control, but that doesn't diminish their commendable effort in reducing hunger, providing housing and uplifting the poor. Do I need to remind you of our severe hunger situation and yet we still export wheat? I was always wondering how we manage to feed ourselves with 200 mil tonnes of grain for 1.2 bil people. China needed 500 mil tonnes of grain for 1.3bil people and yet they are afraid of food security. See the concept of determination, urgency and strategic thinking?

Again, for the pharma sector, you pay what you get, there are fakes, they are good ones. You must understand the bulk of Indian pharma active ingredient is imported from CHINA. :shock:




As for "cheap housing" by "clearing slums" I dont think the slum dwellers had any particular say in the business at all. And of course, one should look to see how many "former slum dwellers" actually got to live in the new shiny towers that got built in their at the sites where their former bull dozed homes stood.


OK, we can do it the DEMOCRATIC way and see how another Dharavi is created. Do you have a sense of shame? When people call my countrymen SLUMDOGS? You know how pissed I get when my kid goes to school and a white boy calls him SLUMDOG. :cry:


I think it is more important to be able to look at your face in the mirror and see if you like it, rather than "save face" in front of tourists !


Tell taht to the investors and people that bring in 100bil USD to their tourism industry. thats 2-3 times bigger than our ITES combined. ITES includes BPO and callcenters btw.

err.. I do have an idea of how tiny Singapore is . I have actually lived there. But , despite your long winded explanation about China's "Need to save face and Shame" , I havent been able to make out why Singapore has more visitors than India! . Last time I looked, they were two separate countries separated by around 3000 kms or so !


Good you have been there. I am there NOW. Seriously are you really that shameleess? How can a country as big as India get less tourist than TINY SINGAPORE? Please use some logics!!! There must be something wrong about the condition and the perception people get. Understand why image is so important? It makes money DDUHHH!! God, you really need to think beyond democracy is good and taht it can make India a SUPPAPAWOH just like taht. It's plain hard work, determination and planning!!! :evil:


Ahh. Virtues of criminal behavior. Sure.. sure..


Well, say that when we can send someone to space. I was shaking my head when I see how Russians are making us suckers with Gorky. The Chinis took the effort to tow the Varyag few thousand kilometres around the Cape of Good Hope, bribing countries and deflecting American sabotage just to dissect and learn how to make an aircraft carrier. Our indigenous carrier needed steel from Russia. :evil: Our bandraworli, engineering marvel of the century needed Chinese high tension cables, our BHEL needed Chinese HV transformers. :evil:



Ah.. Sort of put your foot into your mouth haven't you ?. If they can "make everything" as you claim, why will they need to pirate and steal stuff ? :rotfl: :rotfl: . Sure they make a lot of great stuff like DSP chips and processors like God Son or God father or whatever (just google the sordid story behind relabling the chips for that).


Well, they really can make everything now. It's not the most advanced ones. They can make LCDs but maybe not LED TVs, that's why they need to keep on stealing or maybe in the future researching their own, well it's their problem. Comprehendo? And yes I knew about the DSP scandal, but the Loongson is not bad. The team that designed the Loongson created the compiler for Itanium. Again, that makes you think our R&D has no scandal?


As far as I can see, they haven't been able to come up with anything of consequence besides commoditized stuff with generic knowledge . For all their noises in high tech and everything , even with companies like Huawei , their strengths have been manufacturing and cost based stuff in generic areas . Nothing path breaking or innovative or a gold standard in quality and excellence. Go on.. point to me 3 areas /products where they are absolutely the top drawer/ best in anything (high tech, general industry , services etc)


http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE5BH0NU20091218

The world's first 4G network was created by them. Huawei became the world's largest patent applier last year according to WIPO.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/09/16/china.swine.flu.vaccine/index.html
The world's first commercial H1N1 vaccine was created by Sinovac.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123172034731572313.html

The world's first hybrid plug in, commercially produced and on the road. And this company produces some of the longest range, fastest charging electric batteries in the world. Ask big bro Warren Buffet. Funny this company is also China's 3rd largest patent applicant according to WIPO.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-04/16/content_7684702.htm
Read it. I am lazy to explain. That's why BHEL wants to collaborate. :shock:

THATS 4!!!

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby James B » 13 Jan 2010 15:28

Prasanth wrote:http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE5BH0NU20091218

The world's first 4G network was created by them. Huawei became the world's largest patent applier last year according to WIPO.

http://edition.cnn.com/2009/WORLD/asiapcf/09/16/china.swine.flu.vaccine/index.html
The world's first commercial H1N1 vaccine was created by Sinovac.


http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123172034731572313.html

The world's first hybrid plug in, commercially produced and on the road. And this company produces some of the longest range, fastest charging electric batteries in the world. Ask big bro Warren Buffet. Funny this company is also China's 3rd largest patent applicant according to WIPO.

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-04/16/content_7684702.htm
Read it. I am lazy to explain. That's why BHEL wants to collaborate. :shock:

THATS 4!!!


Ah! I feel a sense of Deja Vu!!. I have came across same links/arguments as above from Chinese members (on other forums) when I asked about the best things that China produced in the world. But I have quashed these arguments there and let me do it here as well :mrgreen:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKLDE5BH0NU20091218

The world's first 4G network was created by them. Huawei became the world's largest patent applier last year according to WIPO.


Are you talking about the same Huawei which has knocked-off cisco products where they have baltantly copied source codes and even copying word to word of the user manuals. :shock:

http://www.china.org.cn/english/China/102513.htm
Cisco filed a lawsuit against Huawei on Jan. 22, 2003, alleging Huawei had illegally copied and misappropriated software associated with Cisco networking equipment, including source code and user manuals, and infringed several Cisco patents. :rotfl: :rotfl:


Maximum number of patents doesn't mean Huawei is high-technology company. Today, patents can be filed for most ridiculous things and get away with it. Its the quality of patents that matter not the quantity.

The world's first commercial H1N1 vaccine was created by Sinovac.


Producing vaccines is not a very high end technology. All you need is an antigenic protein or the dead virus to immunize. This technology is decades old. China didn't do any breakthrough discovery by making swineflu vaccine. Even others made the vaccine (read US).

The world's first hybrid plug in, commercially produced and on the road. And this company produces some of the longest range, fastest charging electric batteries in the world. Ask big bro Warren Buffet. Funny this company is also China's 3rd largest patent applicant according to WIPO.


Is this the same car about which people have to say this

The tech chief of a global auto maker who recently drove BYD’s all-electric battery car, the e6, told The Wall Street Journal that he was “truly astonished that they plan to sell such a half-baked car” :rotfl: in China later this year and in the U.S. next year.

The ride was “rough,” :(( which indicates a problem with the car’s computer control technology, and its handling was “squishy,” :eek: the executive said.

http://blogs.wsj.com/chinarealtime/2009/10/27/is-byd’s-electric-car-ready-for-prime-time/

How bad are the BYD electric car sales numbers? It has been reported that since its December launch, only 80 units have sold, and 20 of those were to China’s government :(( :(( . High price, concerns over how long the battery will last and reliability issues are largely to blame.

http://www.zenway.com/d/node/111


First China should learn to make a normal car on its own before going for half-baked plugin hybrids :rotfl: .

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 13 Jan 2010 15:40

to some extent cisco itself is victim to the mindless patent mania. some people focus on 'innovation' and patents onlee rather than any work useful to the group and company.

but as in all things, PRC has a better practitioner :)

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 13 Jan 2010 15:49

Are you talking about the same Huawei which has knocked-off cisco products where they have baltantly copied source codes and even copying word to word of the user manuals. :shock:

Yeap, it is this same Huawei that copied codes 5 years ago and today they are the top 2 telecom gear maker on earth. It is also this same copy, steal, beg, transfer Huawei that is supplying BSNL. :shock:

It is also this same Huawei that has the world's first working 4G technology and TELENOR is using it. :evil: Where is OUR 4G technology? I think Indians will take years to understand the concept of SHAME, FACE and also IMAGE.

Maximum number of patents doesn't mean Huawei is high-technology company. Today, patents can be filed for most ridiculous things and get away with it. Its the quality of patents that matter not the quantity.

Yea, it's just patents. They just simply produce patents same as the research paper. Nothing to worry. India is the BEST! Jai Hind! So easy, where are our patents? What groundbreaking technology have we produced? Isn't it shameless to be downgrading people's effort when we can't even perform. It's like the fox calling the grape sour when it cannot reach the grape.


Producing vaccines is not a very high end technology. All you need is an antigenic protein or the dead virus to immunize. This technology is decades old. China didn't do any breakthrough discovery by making swineflu vaccine. Even others made the vaccine (read US).


So why isn't out great pharma industry producing it and GOI had to beg MNCs to reserve some for Indian use? :eek: It's sooooooooooo simple and noting new, no breakthrough. The point is they MADE IT FIRST!! Where were we? It's so easy.... :rotfl: Isn't it again shameless? For god's sake, we had to beg, and you think that is cool?

Yeap and it is that same car that the Westerners are commenting on. Half baked hybrids? We can't even make simple hybrids? Where is our TATA? Warren Buffet is putting 200 mil into that company, well if he thinks the batteries are relaible, I have no idea. One journalist drove a car and comment on it, and yes, it became a technical evaluation, why do we even need engineers? Can you define half baked? Ooo I hear some squishy sound, it's half baked and the computer is bad. Btw, I was talking about the plug in hybrid not the e6 all EV car with the longest travel for any EV and also the fastest charging time based on their proprierty battery design. Check out how many GM EVs were sold initially...does it mean their effort is useless? They just proved to the world that they unveiled the world's first plug in hybrid. Where is India? Btw, can you differentiate an all electric EV and a plug in hybrid? :rotfl:

I don't like their cars, but compare their technology level to our TATAs, they are way ahead. Marketing wise, TATA rules.. :twisted:
Last edited by Prasanth on 13 Jan 2010 16:05, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Chinmayanand » 13 Jan 2010 16:02

Is china the next enron?

Reading The Herald Tribune over breakfast in Hong Kong harbor last week, my eye went to the front-page story about how James Chanos —reportedly one of America's most successful short-sellers, the man who bet that Enron was a fraud and made a fortune when that proved true and its stock collapsed — is now warning that China is "Dubai times 1,000 or worse" and looking for ways to short that country's economy before its bubbles burst.

China's markets may be full of bubbles ripe for a short-seller, and if Chanos can find a way to make money shorting them, God bless him. But after visiting Hong Kong and Taiwan this past week and talking to many people who work and invest their own money in China, I'd offer Chanos two notes of caution.

First, a simple rule of investing that has always served me well: Never short a country with $2 trillion in foreign currency reserves.

Second, it is easy to look at China today and see its enormous problems and things that it is not getting right. For instance, low interest rates, easy credit, an undervalued currency and hot money flowing in from abroad have led to what the Chinese government Sunday called "excessively rising house prices" in major cities, or what some might call a speculative bubble ripe for the shorting.

In the last few days, though, China's central bank has started edging up interest rates and raising the proportion of deposits that banks must set aside as reserves - precisely to head off inflation and take some air out of any asset bubbles.

And that's the point. I am reluctant to sell China short, not because I think it has no problems or corruption or bubbles, but because I think it has all those problems in spades - and some will blow up along the way (the most dangerous being pollution). But it also has a political class focused on addressing its real problems, as well as a mountain of savings with which to do so (unlike us).

And here is the other thing to keep in mind. Think about all the hype, all the words, that have been written about China's economic development since 1979. It's a lot, right? What if I told you this: "It may be that we haven't seen anything yet."

Why do I say that? All the long-term investments that China has made over the last two decades are just blossoming and could really propel the Chinese economy into the 21st-century knowledge age, starting with its massive investment in infrastructure. Ten years ago, China had a lot bridges and roads to nowhere.

Well, many of them are now connected. It is also on a crash program of building subways in major cities and high-speed trains to interconnect them. China also now has 400 million Internet users, and 200 million of them have broadband. Check into a motel in any major city and you'll have broadband access. America has about 80 million broadband users.

Now take all this infrastructure and mix it together with 27 million students in technical colleges and universities - the most in the world. With just the normal distribution of brains, that's going to bring a lot of brainpower to the market, or, as Bill Gates once said to me: "In China, when you're one-in-a-million, there are 1,300 other people just like you."

Equally important, more and more Chinese students educated abroad are returning home to work and start new businesses. I had lunch with a group of professors at the Hong Kong University of Science and Technology, or HKUST, who told me that this year they will be offering some 50 full scholarships for graduate students in science and technology. Major US universities are sharply cutting back.

Tony Chan, a Hong Kong-born mathematician, recently returned from America after 20 years to become the new president of HKUST. What was his last job in America? Assistant director of the U.S. National Science Foundation in charge of the mathematical and physical sciences. He's one of many coming home.

One of the biggest problems for China's manufacturing and financial sectors has been finding capable middle managers. The reverse-brain drain is eliminating that problem as well.

Finally, as Liu Chao-shiuan, Taiwan's former prime minister, pointed out to me: When Taiwan moved up the value chain from low-end, labor-intensive manufacturing to higher, value-added work, its factories moved to China or Vietnam. It lost them. In China, low-end manufacturing moves from coastal China to the less developed Western part of the country and becomes an engine for development there. In Taiwan, factories go up and out. In China, they go East to West.

"China knows it has problems," said Liu. "But this is the first time it has a chance to actually solve them." Taiwanese entrepreneurs now have more than 70,000 factories in China. They know the place. So I asked several Taiwanese businessmen whether they would "short" China. They vigorously shook their heads no as if I'd asked if they'd go one on one with LeBron James.

But, hey, some people said the same about Enron. Still, I'd rather bet against the euro. Shorting China today? Well, good luck with that, Mr Chanos. Let us know how it works out for you.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby James B » 13 Jan 2010 17:01

Prasanth wrote:Yeap, it is this same Huawei that copied codes 5 years ago and today they are the top 2 telecom gear maker on earth. It is also this same copy, steal, beg, transfer Huawei that is supplying BSNL. :shock:

It is also this same Huawei that has the world's first working 4G technology and TELENOR is using it. :evil: Where is OUR 4G technology? I think Indians will take years to understand the concept of SHAME, FACE and also IMAGE.


You are talking as if Huawei is the one which developed 4G technology :rotfl: . It is Japanese company DoCoMo which has first proven the 4G technology. Huawei is only responsible for network infrastructure in Oslo and it is easy to guess as to why Huawei was chosen, because of cheap rates which are resultant of slave labor working in inhuman conditions, artificial pegging of renminbi to dollar, high subsidies to the companies. I will accept when Huawei will compete on world stage with market economy in place in China not the CCP controlled and stage-managed economy.

http://www.nttdocomo.com/pr/2007/001319.html

Yea, it's just patents. They just simply produce patents same as the research paper. Nothing to worry. India is the BEST! Jai Hind! So easy, where are our patents? What groundbreaking technology have we produced? Isn't it shameless to be downgrading people's effort when we can't even perform. It's like the fox calling the grape sour when it cannot reach the grape.


China's behaviour is like that of a criminal as pointed out by Vina sir. If I have to paraphrase your statement above..

India is the BEST! Jai Hind! So easy, where are our patents (stolen prodcuts)? What groundbreaking technology (stealing methods) have we produced? Isn't it shameless ( :?: ) to be downgrading people's effort (stealing efforts) when we can't even perform (steal). It's like the fox (normal citizen) calling the grape (thief) sour when it cannot reach (steal) the grape (products). :rotfl: :rotfl:

You are trying to appreciate the efforts of a thief who is trying to sell the stolen jewelry for less in the market and out competing the genuine sellers. :shock:

So why isn't out great pharma industry producing it and GOI had to beg MNCs to reserve some for Indian use? :eek: It's sooooooooooo simple and noting new, no breakthrough. The point is they MADE IT FIRST!! Where were we? It's so easy.... :rotfl: Isn't it again shameless? For god's sake, we had to beg, and you think that is cool?


Yes, India is also developing Swineflu vaccine. As I said earlier its not a bid deal to produce certain vaccines.
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/life ... 873696.cms

As for the claim that China made it first is questionable. Novartis has made the vaccine as far as in June 2009 and also done clinical trails in August itself.

http://www.india-server.com/news/swine- ... -7679.html
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 969323.cms

As usual, there is no info on clinical trials from China. It is all conjecture and no clear details on the trials.

Yeap and it is that same car that the Westerners are commenting on. Half baked hybrids? We can't even make simple hybrids? Where is our TATA? Warren Buffet is putting 200 mil into that company, well if he thinks the batteries are relaible, I have no idea. One journalist drove a car and comment on it, and yes, it became a technical evaluation, why do we even need engineers? Can you define half baked? Ooo I hear some squishy sound, it's half baked and the computer is bad. Btw, I was talking about the plug in hybrid not the e6 all EV car with the longest travel for any EV and also the fastest charging time based on their proprierty battery design. Check out how many GM EVs were sold initially...does it mean their effort is useless? They just proved to the world that they unveiled the world's first plug in hybrid. Where is India? Btw, can you differentiate an all electric EV and a plug in hybrid? :rotfl:


We will see how famous this BYD plugin will be after the release of plugin hybrids from other car majors.

Well, the tech guy is the one who drove the car and he will know if it is half-baked or not, and certainly not you from behind the keys of your computer.

yes, TATA has also declared about making hybrids - http://blog.automoton.info/cars/tata-na ... ven-to-us/

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Rahul M » 13 Jan 2010 17:08

this is not a India vs china thread. it's prasanth's recurring habit of bringing in this angle that usually starts these pi$$ing contests, he has been warned for it in the past and may be warned again. please do not aid his thread derailing efforts by continuing discussions on those lines.
Rahul.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 13 Jan 2010 17:23

Rahul M wrote:this is not a India vs china thread. it's prasanth's recurring habit of bringing in this angle that usually starts these pi$$ing contests, he has been warned for it in the past and may be warned again. please do not aid his thread derailing efforts by continuing discussions on those lines.
Rahul.


Rahul-ji,

If every time I try to correct this peculiar Indian habit of living in denial and laughing it off, you end up warning me, then forever, some here will live in a cocoon, thinking there is nothing powerful about China. Trust me, until we realise what they are capable of, the same 1962 will recur.

Well, I was about to correct a lot of things. But I will stop here. Anyway, when will India stop saying will, shall, can, could, in the future and start saying NOW. Do something first then tell the world, don’t be so shameless and broadcast to the whole world.

you get warned because you can't keep yourself from expressing your undying love for the PRC at every thread and start posting inane OT stuff. I wonder who is living in a cocoon.
your personal crusade is of no concern to me but if you want to stay here you have to respect the rules.

Well, I was about to correct a lot of things.

I doubt BR has anything to learn from one who can't correct his own juvenile posting habits. I don't think your absence will be a great loss for us. bye then.
Last edited by Rahul M on 13 Jan 2010 20:21, edited 1 time in total.
Reason: comment added

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby amol.p » 13 Jan 2010 18:00

ajay pratap wrote:
vina wrote:Nothing path breaking or innovative or a gold standard in quality and excellence. Go on.. point to me 3 areas /products where they are absolutely the top drawer/ best in anything (high tech, general industry , services etc).

1. IP theft
2. Most stringent Internet Firewall
3. Highest Number of Dissidents Jailed, Prosecuted and Killed.


In today's world only think that counts is money. Who-ever has money power will win. No one looks and image. what was japan few decades back....??? In todays world everyone & everyting is for sale you just have to offer the right price. The same goes with china. No one should look down on china for what it has achieved by any means.

China can change any policy just by buying some billion $ worth goods from any country. That it the real power.

World markets fall as China curbs lending
http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/Wor ... 440712.cms

...how many countries have the power to do so...????

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby vina » 13 Jan 2010 18:03

http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2009-04/16/content_7684702.htm

Read it. I am lazy to explain. That's why BHEL wants to collaborate.


Ok. Pls explain to us unknowing folks, how in a day and age when there are HVDC implementations in India (some going back atleast a decade or so) and cutting edge folks like ABB,Siemens etc doing it in India and globally why would anyone get so excited about "localizing and going 100% indigenous" with a HVAC technology.. Big deal. The Chinese imported and localized some stuff. What does BHEL have to do with it and "collaborate" and all that hoo ha?. Beats me. This sounds like one of those 100% indidgenization fetish stories.

In any case, I digress. That is really not the reason for this thread. Point is, I think China has gone past it's growth rate peak. It will never again reach the growth rates it has seen in the past decade.

A number of reasons.. 1) The base effect (it is much harder to do it from a higher base) 2) Demographic reasons 3) The export and CapEx driven growth model is way past it's sell by date.

China's growth model is based on a crass mercantilism. Now expect push backs from other countries when they are not willing to put up with it any longer and barriers go up specifically for Chinese products.

In the input side, the commodity guys will simply rob China blind. All this investment into "non traditioanl countries" etc is just money down the toilet and much of the massive chinese overinvestment in the past in PPE (property, plant and equipment) and the capacity overhang is going to bite the dust in this environment.

At best you can postpone the day of reckoning, by inflating and building up a massive bubble. But remember the old saying, the bigger you are , the harder you fall. When the Chinese bubble bursts, the recent US meltdown will be a tea party.

And oh, the pressure to try and export one's way out of trouble will be immense. But the walls would have already closed by then. And I hope the only silver lining in all that is that China experiences a revolution like the Berlin wall and the CPC thugs are kicked out and China becomes a normal country again, in touch with it's soul and true values.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby abhischekcc » 13 Jan 2010 18:31

I keep hearing about China's USD 2 trillion hoard as if it is a magic wand that will make every problem China has disappear. The hoard is really a millstone around their necks - what will they do with that hoard if demand for dollar weakens? If they try to dump the dollar, they will end up hurting themselves.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Abhijeet » 14 Jan 2010 00:34

I think it makes a lot of sense for a poor country to have companies at all ends of the value spectrum - from companies that do low value-added, labour-intensive work to high-automation, high-value-added work; and orthogonally, companies that develop their own IP versus companies that beg, borrow, and steal others' ideas.

While stealing is wrong at a personal level, as a national competitive strategy it is a good idea. As many people have rightly pointed out, the US specifically wasn't too concerned about IP theft when it was trying to catch up with Europe. The main requirement for this to work seems to be a government that encourages internal competition while allowing a free for all on external ideas.

Specifically wrt China, there are cheap knockoffs not just of handbags but also relatively high-end electronics (the Chinese Vii to "compete" with the Nintendo Wii, for example). To me, this only indicates that cheap manufacturing capabilities are available there to people who are shut out of that supply chain in India. For example, I can't conceive of a no-name Indian company releasing a fairly sophisticated piece of electronics in India, even if copied from a foreign product. That's because the manufacturing base to allow something like that to be made cheaply is far weaker (respect for IP is secondary, since it would take Indian courts years to sort out IP infringement cases).

The point of this ramble is to say that while it's easy to laugh at the Chinese as having no creativity and simply copying everything, the copying indicates a lot of experimentation going on, which is eventually going to result in good products in many different areas (and you can see this happening now). For example, I'd like to see a market like Shanzhai market (http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/12/11/cr ... -shanzhai/) - 5 floors of knockoff mobile phones - in India. It would give a lot of poor people access to phones they could not otherwise afford, made by Indian companies, without having to wait for the crumbs thrown at us by Apple or Google.

On a separate note: it would be nice if the moderators didn't shut down everyone who dares to speak positively of China, especially from personal experience, as a troll or flamebaiter.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Katare » 14 Jan 2010 00:56

abhischekcc wrote:I keep hearing about China's USD 2 trillion hoard as if it is a magic wand that will make every problem China has disappear. The hoard is really a millstone around their necks - what will they do with that hoard if demand for dollar weakens? If they try to dump the dollar, they will end up hurting themselves.


You may be right but I can't resist asking that if you have got $2 trillion in surplus cash and counting, do you really need a magic wand? :mrgreen:

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby manish » 14 Jan 2010 01:04

Abhijeet wrote:The point of this ramble is to say that while it's easy to laugh at the Chinese as having no creativity and simply copying everything, the copying indicates a lot of experimentation going on, which is eventually going to result in good products in many different areas (and you can see this happening now). For example, I'd like to see a market like Shanzhai market (http://www.crunchgear.com/2009/12/11/cr ... -shanzhai/) - 5 floors of knockoff mobile phones - in India. It would give a lot of poor people access to phones they could not otherwise afford, made by Indian companies, without having to wait for the crumbs thrown at us by Apple or Google.

On a separate note: it would be nice if the moderators didn't shut down everyone who dares to speak positively of China, especially from personal experience, as a troll or flamebaiter.

Abhijeet ji, no offence, but let me get my two cents in here.

First about the cell phones - Indians do have access to the same chinese knock-offs along with the 'crumbs' that Apple/Google 'throw'. Lots of Indian companies import and re-brand these phones - check the discussions in the Indian Telecom thread. But the poor people (and many of the rich too), actually seem to prefer the Nokia handsets here :) and there have been very few takers for the Apple/Google 'crumbs' so far.

Jokes aside, I do not think anybody is muzzling pro-PRC voices here - I think the issue here was one poster's repeated bleating of PRC propaganda while continuing to needlessly criticizing India and turning everything into China-does-it-why-can't-India-do-it-oh-I-am-so-ashamed-to-be-Indian thing. I agree with your points about a country being present in different ends of the value spectrum, and having been personally associated with Chinese businesses in the past, I do agree that they have their strengths. Nobody here was denying those things but somebody's personal insecurities and inability to deal with his/her own identity cannot be allowed to derail the discussions. If one wants to praise PRC, there is nothing wrong with it - but needlessly p!ssing on India while doing so, that too on BRF is simply unacceptable IMHO.

I think the presence of a decent number of (a handful, not more!) PRC posters like wrdos etc is proof enough that they are not being muzzled here - what irks people here are the unnecessary d!cK measuring contests that some like to indulge in.

My two (rather long) cents.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby negi » 14 Jan 2010 05:09

Is it only me but the kind of arguments being used to ridicule the Chinese companies reminds me of forums in the west where natives :(( and utter exact similar phrases about Indian IT VITY i.e. nothing earth shattering, cheap labor, no quality ,will not sustain for ever yada yada. :lol:

As for reverse engineering well lets be honest there is nothing wrong in it as long as one does not make false claims about having invented the stuff/IP itself , in fact the very field of engineering also involves learning to know how things work and then improve upon them in terms of efficiency or the costs incurred while manufacturing them , basically reverse engineering is a subset of the former.

Vina ji there are no doubts what so ever around BHEL's 'potential/capability' as far as the state of the art in power generation ,transmission and distribution is concerned the problem is , just like SRT in 90's it is a one man army as far as India's power sector is concerned it simply does not have the means and scalability to cater to large number of power projects currently underway in India it is this which has given the Chinese a foothold in India and then cost , cheap labor and other parameters too have a role to play.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Katare » 14 Jan 2010 05:48

BHEL license produces European (Siemens and Alstom) products in India. In return for royalty/licensing fee it receives technology, upgrades and tech supports so it has better quality than Chinese equipment suppliers. But since it has to pay royalty on sales its products are more expansive than Chinese products which are basically built on stolen/reverse-engineered western technologies.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby harbans » 14 Jan 2010 06:05

If every time I try to correct this peculiar Indian habit of living in denial and laughing it off

And you think you're not in denial? I've been to PRC many times. I have worked with Chinese. I know when people get impressed with facades and appearances. The olympics was a failure for the Chinese when they lip synched a beautiful voice of a 7 year old child with a supposedly 'prettier' child to show 'face' to the world. That showed China..it's 'Image', it's 'honor', it's 'dignity'. it's 'lack of loss of face'.

It's the same everywhere. Apart from the complete genocides that have been conducted in the West, Tasmania (yes the last aborginal Tasmanian was executed in 1917 or somewhere around that, hope some Aussie corrects me on that date), Afghanistan, Iran, Pakistani held parts of India, China is in modern times replicating a similar regimen in most of it's covered/ occupied land area. Thats why almost half the Tibetan population live in India and many in Nepal, Bhutan etc.

Do you know Nazi Germany's claims? They too had a fantastic economy. Many Indians swear too by how well Nazi germany ran. The 'psec feudal' Sanjay Gandhi fan brigade swore India should have a dictatorship, since during emergency time, trains ran on time and more. I have heard that talk n number of times wearily across. Yet the Indian people threw out Indira Gandhi who offered that solution by force. Surely India would have been better organized and one would not see poor people on the streets. Poverty would have been 'managed' well. Anybody crapping below metros would have been shot dead next morning and you would'nt have in 3 days anyone shitting below flyovers or off Byculla. Easy dude. These things are done very easy.

Tougher is growing up in a developing country the size of India, giving it's citizens the same or possibly even more liberty than available to denizens in the West. Knowing one will have to wait before POSCO or Mittal sets up steel plants worth 20 billion USD because the rights of 200 families are being snatched away. No one cannot step on someones toes and grow higher. That is not dharma. It is not the way India is destined to grow, and neither it's people share that vision. Maybe China, or US or UK but not India. This difference you have not understood and that will take time for you to comprehend. The Chinese model is doomed for failure in it's present course. It may not be apparent now, but every example of totalitarian regimes in 5000 years of recorded history has shown the obvious to replicate, despite short term massive gains on economic fronts. Your defense is and will always be based on these short term trends/ quotes/ figures and subsequent arguments based on that..nothing more.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby harbans » 14 Jan 2010 06:13

I don't know of this if it is correct, but i read somewhere that China did not have a single Phd till late 70's. Yet they exploded a TN device and sent objects into space. I tried some googling but could'nt unearth the relevent figures. Anyone with some more info please share. Thanks.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Gagan » 14 Jan 2010 06:19

X post:
Brahma Chellaney rubs it on the Chinese - on the New York Times.
A Smoking Dragon in Sheep's Clothing
By BRAHMA CHELLANEY

NEW DELHI — China presents itself as a schizophrenic power: a developing country on select international issues, but in other matters a rising superpower with new muscular confidence that supposedly is in the same league as the United States.

At the recent Copenhagen climate-change summit, China was the former: It loudly emphasized its membership in the developing world and quietly used poor countries, especially from Africa, to raise procedural obstacles in the negotiations.

Make no mistake: China, the world’s largest polluter whose carbon emissions are growing at the fastest rate, was the principal target at Copenhagen. But China cleverly deflected pressure by hiding behind small, poor countries and forging a negotiating alliance with India and two other major developing countries, Brazil and South Africa, who together are known as the BASIC bloc.

China escaped without making a binding commitment on carbon-emissions cuts, at least for now. But carbon-light India, with per-capita emissions just 26 percent of the world average, undercut its interest by getting bracketed with the world’s largest polluter.

Let’s be clear: On climate change, trade liberalization, currency and related issues, China — despite its emergence as a financial and trade Goliath — defines itself as a developing country and expediently seeks to join hands with poor nations so it can shield practices

...

But on political and security issues, it sees itself as without a peer in Asia, and is greatly enthused by the idea of a U.S-China “Group of Two.”

...

Read in full

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby zlin » 14 Jan 2010 06:36

Wu-guang HSR 8)

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Masaru » 14 Jan 2010 06:48

harbans wrote:I don't know of this if it is correct, but i read somewhere that China did not have a single Phd till late 70's. Yet they exploded a TN device and sent objects into space. I tried some googling but could'nt unearth the relevent figures. Anyone with some more info please share. Thanks.


A possible side effect of the anti-intellectual Cultural revolution, where in universities were dismantled and professors were sent to work in the fields. They reopened after Deng took over in ~1979 and in the first entrance exams applicants of a whole generation from 40 odd to 16 odd years old participated. That would explain why they had no PhDs.

In contrast as is in every other sector in education too they are growing rapidly, at least in quantitative terms.

Get ready for China's domination of science

Look at these facts. In 1998, China’s research output was around 20,000 publications per year. In 2006, it reached 83,000, way past those of Japan, UK and Germany. In 2009, it was 120,000, second only to the US which published 350,000.


With all attendant problems of the boom

Chinese academia ghost-writing 'widespread'

The market in buying and selling scientific papers has grown five-fold in the past three years.
Some hard-up masters or doctorate students are making a living by churning out papers for others. Others mass-produce scientific papers in order to get monetary rewards from their institutions.
Two lecturers from central China were sacked late last month after it was discovered that they had falsified 70 papers in two years.
Critics say part of the problem lies in the official requirement on academic publication for degrees and job promotions.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby SwamyG » 14 Jan 2010 07:38

Some folks might be interested to know why or how India will outperform China. Riding Indian Tiger : Understanding India - The World's Largest Growing Market

The google books has a limited preview - Check out Chapter 3 that starts from Page 65.

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Re: PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

Postby Rahul M » 14 Jan 2010 07:38

harbans wrote:I don't know of this if it is correct, but i read somewhere that China did not have a single Phd till late 70's. Yet they exploded a TN device and sent objects into space. I tried some googling but could'nt unearth the relevent figures. Anyone with some more info please share. Thanks.

the PRC academic system didn't recognise Ph.D degrees, does not mean there were no scientists or researchers in china at the time.


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