PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

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Prasanth
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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 28 Sep 2009 09:35

Katare wrote:Hunt on for fleeing Chinese nationals

NEW DELHI/RAIPUR: Indian airport authorities are on the lookout for Chinese nationals who have fled from a Bharat Aluminium Company Ltd (Balco)
plant in Chhattisgarh, after an under-construction chimney collapsed killing 45 people, but no one has been detained till now, officials said on Sunday.

"About 70 Chinese nationals, mostly engineers, have left Korba town amid rising death toll of workers," a police source told IANS in Raipur.

The Chinese nationals were employed in Korba town, 250 km north of state capital Raipur, by Shandong Electric Power Construction Corporation (SEPCO) - a China-based company that was given the contract to construct a 1,200-MW thermal power plant.

SEPCO, in turn, had given a contract to Gannon Dunkerley and Company Ltd (GDCL) for construction of a 275-metre high chimney for the plant that caved in. So far, 45 bodies have been retrieved from the debris of the chimney scattered over a large area.

Several workers are still feared to be trapped in the rubble.

"Even the SEPCO office is locked. We need to stop them from fleeing Chhattisgarh, or even from India, as they need to be interrogated about the tragedy for a judicial probe," the police official said.

Meanwhile highly placed sources in the national capital told IANS that no Chinese national has been detained following the lookout notice against them.

"In the past two days, no such detention has been made," the source said.


Guys,

Who will be liable in this case? SEPCO or Gannon Dunkerley and Company Ltd (GDCL), which is the Indian subcontractor. Besides, why do we even need chinis to build power plants? I don't think it's that complex or are we really so incompetent?

SEPCO subcontracted the construction of the 275-meter chimney to Gannon Dunkerley and Company Ltd (GDCL), an Indian company, according to the Hindustand Times.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Katare » 29 Sep 2009 00:06

As per L&T chief A M Naik, Chinese firms have won contracts to supply power plant equipments for projects worth $50Billion or 50K MW in India. Mostly because of their cheaper cost and faster delivery promises. If this is the sign for things to come Indian industry is up for a rude shock.

But they have little option but to go with Chinese, BHEL is sitting on a Rs130K corer firm order book. Almost all the major projects that it is involved with are running late for want of timely supply of equipment. On top of it BHEL is much more costlier than Chinese firms simply because Chinese firms supply rip-off of western designs while BHEL still supplies goods made with official licenses that costs customers additional royalty burden.

Private equipment suppliers like L&T were late in starting their manufacturing. Their plants are still coming up and would face huge depreciation burden and increased competition from global manufacturers supported by cheap loans from their own EXIM banks.

Indian power plant sector would become largest market for new projects in the world in next 5-10 years. Hope we would be able to develop one or two world class fully integrated equipment supplier with their own line of products. BHEL’s R&D really needs to take-off with full throttle; it’ll not have this good of a market ever again in its life.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby shyamd » 12 Oct 2009 22:42

How Much Should We Worry About Overcapacity in China?
Print

* Now that Chinese growth had reaccelerated, policy makers are worried about overcapacity in several key sectors and are trying to cut back to avoid a supply glut. However, judging from past experience, cutting excess capacity may be difficult as incentives for implementing officials support further growth.
* In the rush to stimulate the economy, local governments approved many projects without much thought to existing overcapacities. Now central government agencies are trying to curb this output. Much of the overcapacity is in the materials and metals sectors.
* In September 2009, China's state council encouraged curbs on the following sectors or products identified as being in oversupply "steel, textiles (yarn), aluminum, cement, plate glass, caustic soda (used in PVC production), chemically-processed coal, alumina (aluminum oxide to increase durability), shipbuilding and industrial chemicals. Crystalline silicon used in the production of wind turbines and solar panels was also thought to be oversupplied. (via Economic Observer, September 10)
* Minggao Shen, Citi: The oversupplied sectors are also heavily dependent on external demand, which exacerbates the problem as this demand has yet to recover. China may need to export some of the overcapacity, but this could spark trade protection in other markets.
* Investment in cement rose by 72% in H1 2009, despite capacity utilization of less than 78% in 2008. Production outstripped domestic demand by 300 million tons and new projects in 2009 could increase production by an additional 200 million tons (Lex, Economic Observer)
* The FT's Lex notes that steel production of over 600 million tons will far far outstrips domestic consumption (about 470 million tons). In the past planners trying to cut back have been thwarted by the connected factory owners and unhappy workers and now the credit explosion which kept marginal suppliers in business will be an obstacle. (August 2009)
* Citi's Brian Yu notes that as China's steel production increases its input costs are also likely to rise, which should put a floor on pricing and limit China's ability to export any overcapacity by driving prices down.
* In August, the Aluminum Corp of China worried that excess production contributed to aluminum inventories of as much as 600.000 tons held by smelters and warehouses. There is additional inventories at the Shanghai metal exchange.
* Brown Brothers Harriman notes that the overcapacity highlights the ways in which China's "developmental strategy of relying on investment and exports is approaching important limits." and could be deflationary for the global economy.
* The shift in loans away from corporations and towards households could reduce the amount of financing for investment.
* The sectoral stimulus plans announced by the Chinese government aimed to absorb excess capacity, in some cases with the government buying surplus.
* Chinese desire to increase market share in some sectors (ie shipbuilding) and move up the value chain in others, may contribute to overproduction

Past Lessons
* China has in the past tried to reduce output, including production cuts in Aluminum in 2008 to save on electricity demand and avoid further overcapacity.
* In 2005 state council identified 10 sectors as having overcapacity including steel, aluminum, ferrous alloys, cars, coking coal, electricity, cement and textiles.
* Forced mergers, a hold on new project approvals and credit rationing have all been used in the past to deal with overcapacities. These measures tend to favor large state-owned enterprises.

In summary: Be worried.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby bart » 13 Oct 2009 11:54

Katare wrote:As per L&T chief A M Naik, Chinese firms have won contracts to supply power plant equipments for projects worth $50Billion or 50K MW in India. Mostly because of their cheaper cost and faster delivery promises. If this is the sign for things to come Indian industry is up for a rude shock.

But they have little option but to go with Chinese, BHEL is sitting on a Rs130K corer firm order book. Almost all the major projects that it is involved with are running late for want of timely supply of equipment. On top of it BHEL is much more costlier than Chinese firms simply because Chinese firms supply rip-off of western designs while BHEL still supplies goods made with official licenses that costs customers additional royalty burden.

Private equipment suppliers like L&T were late in starting their manufacturing. Their plants are still coming up and would face huge depreciation burden and increased competition from global manufacturers supported by cheap loans from their own EXIM banks.

Indian power plant sector would become largest market for new projects in the world in next 5-10 years. Hope we would be able to develop one or two world class fully integrated equipment supplier with their own line of products. BHEL’s R&D really needs to take-off with full throttle; it’ll not have this good of a market ever again in its life.


I am assuming BHEL, L&T, Greaves etc have R&D on par or better than the Chinese, plus they can get the tech they need from long-standing tie-ups with ABB/Siemens/Alstom etc, so can someone comment on what is stopping them from adding capacity? Also, Areva (ex Alstom T&D) recently set up 3 factories in TN, so MNCs are adding some capacity.

Can the govt legally put curbs on stolen IP? Or use the threat of competition to negotiate cheaper licenses from Western companies? In the current scenario people are willing to give away stuff for negligible profit margins just to get rid of inventory, so with so many orders taking place government does have some leverage.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Shalav » 23 Oct 2009 00:09

from ^^

China's cheap labor pool running dry

In of itself this sounds ominous, but this is exactly what they want isn't it? When there is a shortage of labour, it would mean ALL their labour is gainfully employed, and there is little unemployment or under employment, hence the shortage.

This creates upward pressure on wages and the rising tide lifts the whole country up.

This is what India wants too - low unemployment, no under-employment and rising wages. Thus moving from a low income country to a middle income country and eventually becoming a high income country.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Katare » 23 Oct 2009 01:29

China's 3Q growth accelerates to 8.9 percent pace

"I never trusted what the economists were saying on TV about the recovery until our orders doubled last month. Now I'm convinced," said Zhang Yizheng, general manager of Shanghai Rising, a trading company that deals in plastic pipes used mainly in vehicles.

"Our orders from car makers, electric equipment makers and construction companies tell me that their business is returning to normal, too."


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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby wrdos » 24 Oct 2009 16:17

Hehe, thank you very much for sharing the following.

Mr. Chang wrote a very famous book predicting China to collapse in 2001 right after the entry of WTO.
I am happy to find that he is still there actively writing, but now on the past instead of future of China.


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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby wrdos » 24 Oct 2009 16:19

Everything You Know About China Is Wrong

http://www.newsweek.com/id/218290

The conventional wisdom is that China is steaming through the global financial crisis by building on the momentum generated by its 30-year boom. Indeed, ever since it sailed through the last big global crisis—the Asian contagion 10 years ago—Beijing has been feted for uniquely steady helmsmanship in financial storms. So perhaps it's natural for forecasters to assume that the Chinese supertanker of state is not turning sharply now, particularly since it continues to grow rapidly even as other economies sink in the recession. Yet this crisis is different—bigger and more damaging than any seen in generations—and it is exposing limits and forcing change in just about every key piece of the China model: the supremacy of the one-party state, the smart economic management, the export-driven growth, the emerging consumer class, the burgeoning private sector, the headlong focus on growth at any environmental cost, and the drive to build world-class companies. What follows is a look at why these common assumptions about China are increasingly inaccurate or just plain wrong.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Gerard » 24 Oct 2009 16:34

Pollution in China
October 14, 2009, the 30th annual awards ceremony of the W. Eugene Smith Memorial Fund took place at the Asia Society in New York City. Lu Guang (卢广) from People’s Republic of China won the $30,000 W. Eugene Smith Grant in Humanistic Photography for his documentary project “Pollution in China.”


Shocking pictures

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 24 Oct 2009 16:54

I hope the photographer and his family are not in jail for this loss of face episode.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby vina » 24 Oct 2009 17:20

Gerard wrote:Pollution in China
October 14, 2009, the 30th annual awards ceremony of the W. Eugene Smith Memorial Fund took place at the Asia Society in New York City. Lu Guang (卢广) from People’s Republic of China won the $30,000 W. Eugene Smith Grant in Humanistic Photography for his documentary project “Pollution in China.”


Shocking pictures

Amazing that this level of intense pollution and environmental degradation are out of the public eye!. No wonder there is something called the "China Price". If you dont have pollution norms, labor laws and other controls, you tend to have a lower cost!

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Bade » 24 Oct 2009 20:07

so, true cost of production is way higher (assuming they are planning to cleanup at some point). May be "green/cleanup jobs and investments" are one way to jump start the economy and provide jobs :idea:


Yup, this will be part of their next round of high GDP growth. When you pollute you have growth, and following which you clean up you add to further growth. This is just like the 'dig a hole' growth followed by 'fill a hole' growth model.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 24 Oct 2009 20:35

afaik PRC (and vietnam & cambodia) has a large farmed fish export business. have to wonder in
what kind of water they raise the fishes and what gets fed. tilapia is said to be one variety able to survive turbid water wherein tens of other species cannot survive (saw it on a natgeo pgm on degradation in sundarbans area)...

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby amit » 26 Oct 2009 12:38

Bade wrote:
so, true cost of production is way higher (assuming they are planning to cleanup at some point). May be "green/cleanup jobs and investments" are one way to jump start the economy and provide jobs :idea:


Yup, this will be part of their next round of high GDP growth. When you pollute you have growth, and following which you clean up you add to further growth. This is just like the 'dig a hole' growth followed by 'fill a hole' growth model.


Bade Sir,

I don't think it's that simple. Clean up is not necessarily a "economically" productive activity. And also its not usually something where in the true Keynesian model you employ unemployed or under-employed workers to "dig a hole and then fill it up".

Cleaning pollution in many cases is capital and technology intensive efforts which take several years if not decades to achieve and at the end of it you don't get anything "productive" in the strictly economic sense. You just may be lucky enough to restore nature to its original form.

So as someone wrote, it's the "China price" which sooner or later is going to come and haunt China.

JMT

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Singha » 26 Oct 2009 14:14

saw an article in NYT over weekend - there is a $400b multi decade effort ongoing in khanate to id and clean up places like the new mexico manhattan proj lab, and few other sites associated with the early bomb programs.

says they are doing archeology because most of the people
involved have passed away and nobody knows the true
extent of what went into the dump.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Bade » 26 Oct 2009 22:01

The sum total of all activity may not look "productive", but if energy is consumed in both digging the hole and then filling it type activity, how to separate the two. Isn't energy consumption, a good enough proxy for GDP growth, even if energy is used inefficiently.

Moreover, what is considered productive is subjective, and decided by the times, no ? All the PCB pollution of Hudson was productive, till a replacement is found. So now clean up gets funding effort, which also consumes energy to get "livability".

Hypothetically, the human civilization with all its "productive" achievements in the interim, could annihilate itself in a MAD scenario (a fear valid till recently, at least). The net outcome hence could be considered unproductive, even with the whole industrial and scientific related growth in the interim period before final destruction. This is non-economist's point of view :) , so I better shut up now.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Katare » 26 Oct 2009 23:52

wrdos wrote:Hehe, thank you very much for sharing the following.

Mr. Chang wrote a very famous book predicting China to collapse in 2001 right after the entry of WTO.
I am happy to find that he is still there actively writing, but now on the past instead of future of China.



Gordon Chang is a laughing stock for almost a decade. He is trying to make a come back piggy backing on the financial crisis. In late 1990 he presented pretty well researched and compelling arguments (in his book "Coming collapse of China") based on the primary consumption data that Chinese are faking growth and will collapse in couple of years. He is back to his old tricks again. His trick is that he wouldn't take certain things like improvement in efficiency, productivity, tech infusion in his simple mathematics while liberally relying on unsubstantiated rumors of govt buying/storing things to propup the market. I wouldn't pay much attention to his antics, people like him are barking for last 30 years while Chinese have managed to create wealth worth 10s of trillions for themselves in those years.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby wrdos » 27 Oct 2009 11:39

The Shrinking of China
-- High-Speed Trains Are Making China Smaller

http://www.newsweek.com/id/219416

For decades, rail travel in China meant an arduous overnighter in a crowded East German–designed train, riding along a rickety old track. Now China is undergoing a rail revolution. Over the next three years, the government will pour some $300 billion into its railways, expanding its network by 20,000 kilometers, including 13,000 kilometers of track designed for high-speed trains capable of traveling up to 350kph. Result: China, a nation long defined by the vastness of its geography, is getting, much, much smaller.

Already, the journey from Beijing to Taiyuan, the capital of Shanxi province, has been slashed from eight hours to three. Shortly before the Olympics last year, the 120km trip from Beijing to Tianjin was cut from almost an hour to just 27 minutes. In the next few years, a train journey from Wuhan to Guangzhou, halfway across the country, will shrink from 10 to three hours. The trip from Shanghai to Beijing, which currently clocks in at 10 grueling hours—and twice that, not so long ago—will be cut to just four, making train travel between China's two most important cities a viable competitor to air for the first time. Similarly, a trip from the capital to the southern manufacturing powerhouse of Guangzhou—more or less the entire length of the nation—will take just eight hours, compared with 20 before and more than a day and a half by bus.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby amit » 27 Oct 2009 11:54

Bade wrote:The sum total of all activity may not look "productive", but if energy is consumed in both digging the hole and then filling it type activity, how to separate the two. Isn't energy consumption, a good enough proxy for GDP growth, even if energy is used inefficiently.

Moreover, what is considered productive is subjective, and decided by the times, no ? All the PCB pollution of Hudson was productive, till a replacement is found. So now clean up gets funding effort, which also consumes energy to get "livability".

Hypothetically, the human civilization with all its "productive" achievements in the interim, could annihilate itself in a MAD scenario (a fear valid till recently, at least). The net outcome hence could be considered unproductive, even with the whole industrial and scientific related growth in the interim period before final destruction. This is non-economist's point of view :) , so I better shut up now.


Boss your theory is sound but the problem is you don't necessarily consume energy or employ legions of unemployed or under-employed folks to clean up toxic wastes which could be harmful to humans who touch it. What is needed is capital intensive technology, which costs money and requires plenty of expertise. There's no way that this effort can be economically "productive" in dollars and cents terms.

And concepts like "livability" are fine and dandy for mature and developed economies. However, with respect to China we tend to get mesmerized by the GDP numbers and tell ourselves, "Holy Cow! These guys are overtaking the Japanese!"

What is not mentioned and which always remains consigned to the small print is the fact that Japan's GDP is divided among 120 million folks and China's is divided among about one billion more folks than Japans. What that means is that the average Japanese will remain far more wealthy than the average Chinese for a long time to come. And it is the wealthy people who can be persuaded by "livability" ideas, not the guy on the street who doesn't know where his next meal is going to come from or the guy who needs to work in order to ensure an education for his child.

So bottomline, even after becoming the No2 economy in the world China would still remain a developing country. This is not to belittle the great strides taken by China. But what it means is that it would still have to, at all costs, maintain the 7 per cent plus growth rate that they need to ensure that more jobs are created than people who join the workforce every year.

But to do that, they would have to factor in the "China price" and so more pollution.

Frankly I don't see China cleaning up their pollution mess and at the same time grow at near double digits. I don't see how that can be possible given the Chinese (cheap) export-led growth model. Of course I could very well be proved wrong.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby vina » 27 Oct 2009 12:06

wrdos wrote:The Shrinking of China
-- High-Speed Trains Are Making China Smaller

http://www.newsweek.com/id/219416


This is very good. Such kind of infrastructure projects, executed efficiently and on time is something the Chinese system and government will do excellently. This is the "right" kind of stimulus and something that will drive growth in the future.

That said, I think the Chinese have still not broken with their export led model. The currency is still pegged with the USD. They hope to export their way out of trouble when the US recovers. But I think the grumbling about "imbalances" will only get louder. The US will move to put it's house in order in the longer term once recovery starts . Both China and US wont upset the apple cart now because the economy is not out of the woods. But mark my words, US will address the Renminbi/USD peg once recovery starts .

China right now is exporting deflation to the US and with the falling dollar, commodity prices are going up for everyone (including the Chinese) . Long term, there is no alternative to Chinese consuming internally . That is when the fun will begin. It will be lot lot tougher to find customers within China who will be willing to consume at the price points of US and Europe.

And yeah, the law of large numbers have already started kicking in. China's GDP will start tapering off in the next 2 to 3 years . Even all the Shanghai stats cant mask the fact that the economic growth rates will plateau. This is the fact of life. Something like law of gravitation and inevitable. It happened in Japan, Newly Industrialized Economies (S.E Asia, Taiwan), So Korea and now China.

India is a decade behind China. The gap will close once China platueas off . India will continue growing for a decade and half to two decades longer , faster than China because of lower base and demographic profile and in many cases leapfrog effect of new tech.

For eg, much of China's electricity generation capacity is highly polluting inefficient (largely) coal fired stations. India's new capacity will be ultra mega projects with supercritical boilers and high efficiency. It will be a sort of "mobile phone vs land line" kind of jump.. Clearly if you need to roll out telecom networks today from scratch, you would roll out wireless rather than land lines!

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Rishirishi » 28 Oct 2009 02:28

One thing is for sure, the Chinease are serious about building the infrastructure. I had the plesure to travel between Shangai, Nanjing and Hangzhou. Travelled by train to Nanjing and to hangzhou by bus. The train network is fantastic. Not comparable to TVG in France but still very very good. I think it travels in speed of 250 km per hour. There was a 3 lane highway from Nanjing to Hangzhou, again very good.

I do not know if the investments are economical, but they do make an impact on the economy.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby shynee » 30 Oct 2009 21:00

Chinese railways and speculating pig farmers - Michael Pettis
It is easy to get excited by this building program, but are those high-speed rails, which may be fast, exciting and fun to ride, economically justified? Even if they were justified in the US or Europe, where the economic value of every hour saved is many times the value in China, they are probably not justified in China. After all an American might gladly pay $100 a month to cut his daily commuting time by one hour, but for most households in Beijing or Shanghai this would be the equivalent of paying one-third to one-fifth of their income – probably not worth it. And note that I am not even mentioning one of the sub-stories in this article – that China’s airline industry may be seriously hurt by the high-speed rails even as China is splurging on a massive airport investment program.

So does it matter if we waste a little money? Of course it does. Remember that if the total economic benefits are less than the cost of the investment, we can’t simply assume away the difference. We need to figure out who will pay, and it shouldn’t come as a huge surprise if Chinese households ultimately pay for this waste, as they always have, through all the “normal” channels – sluggish wage growth, very low returns on their savings, indirect taxes on income and consumption, and so on. If they do pay, not only will this make it very hard for them to sustain the consumption splurge that we are all demanding of them, but it represents a transfer of resources from those that must pay for the railway to those that most often use it – all Chinese must pay for benefits that accrue mostly to the wealthier segments of China’s wealthiest cities.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Karan Dixit » 31 Oct 2009 21:49

WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A U.S. trade panel on Friday approved a Commerce Department investigation that could lead to new duties of nearly 100 percent or more on imports of about $382 million of steel pipes from China.

The U.S. International Trade Commission voted 6-0 that there was a reasonable indication that imports of the allegedly subsidized and unfairly priced pipes could harm U.S. producers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091030/pl_ ... na_steel_1

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Hari Seldon » 31 Oct 2009 21:52

Karan Dixit wrote:WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A U.S. trade panel on Friday approved a Commerce Department investigation that could lead to new duties of nearly 100 percent or more on imports of about $382 million of steel pipes from China.

The U.S. International Trade Commission voted 6-0 that there was a reasonable indication that imports of the allegedly subsidized and unfairly priced pipes could harm U.S. producers.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20091030/pl_ ... na_steel_1


Aah, so it begins.... smoot hawley II. Or what?

The real scandal that the US should be investigating have their origins in the reagan and clinton eras. How could the US admit to WTO and bestow MFN status on a country that quite openly declared it would use a currency peg against the USD? Just because the chinis pumped a few 100s of millions into the clintonre-election campaign of 1996 means they reap this big a bonanza? wow. Talk about ROI, even the ambanis would be impressed.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 01 Nov 2009 00:15

Hari Seldon wrote:
The real scandal that the US should be investigating have their origins in the reagan and clinton eras.
How could the US admit to WTO and bestow MFN status on a country that quite openly declared it would use a currency peg against the USD? Just because the chinis pumped a few 100s of millions into the clintonre-election campaign of 1996 means they reap this big a bonanza? wow. Talk about ROI, even the ambanis would be impressed.

This is geo-political decision to award WTO membership to China and MFN status to China to balance the Asian continent. To keep China ahead of Asian economies including India is part of the balance of power strategy in the global geopolitics.

If this is not understood one cannot understand the reason for PRC economic rise in the last 40 years. After 1971 India was considered to have have no balancer with China still recovering from the cultural revolution. After 1978 China was given special attention to bring its economy to stability and build a balance of power with Soviet Union.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby kumarn » 02 Nov 2009 23:46

Acharya wrote:If this is not understood one cannot understand the reason for PRC economic rise in the last 40 years. After 1971 India was considered to have have no balancer with China still recovering from the cultural revolution. After 1978 China was given special attention to bring its economy to stability and build a balance of power with Soviet Union.


Acharya ji, Based on this logic, now that China is the number one dog in Asia and that USSR is no more, shouldn't the west be now looking at India as the balancer to China?

Just trying to understand...

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 03 Nov 2009 00:51

kumarn wrote:
Acharya wrote:If this is not understood one cannot understand the reason for PRC economic rise in the last 40 years. After 1971 India was considered to have have no balancer with China still recovering from the cultural revolution. After 1978 China was given special attention to bring its economy to stability and build a balance of power with Soviet Union.


Acharya ji, Based on this logic, now that China is the number one dog in Asia and that USSR is no more, shouldn't the west be now looking at India as the balancer to China?

Just trying to understand...

Resilience of Russia has surprised the west. With the collapse of the global economy which had the financial nerve center in London and NY the prospect of dominance over Russia, China is over.

Now China is huge and totalitarian and needs a group of countries to handle it.
It needs India, Japan, Aus etc to create a containment policy. India is being signed up for this based on Chinese behavior on the border issue. India will sign up when it sees that PRC is not going to settle the border issue but will claim more land. Japan is not ready yet for joining the group with India.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby kumarn » 03 Nov 2009 14:23

Acharya wrote:Resilience of Russia has surprised the west. With the collapse of the global economy which had the financial nerve center in London and NY the prospect of dominance over Russia, China is over.

Now China is huge and totalitarian and needs a group of countries to handle it.
It needs India, Japan, Aus etc to create a containment policy. India is being signed up for this based on Chinese behavior on the border issue. India will sign up when it sees that PRC is not going to settle the border issue but will claim more land. Japan is not ready yet for joining the group with India.


Thanks for your reply!

Extending this logic further, the west will have to help build up India for it to be able to be an effective counter to PRC. We can then use this help to grow strong like the Chinese did. In any case PRC is hostile to India (which to me sounds quite stupid, because if I were PRC I would settle with India to break this potential containment ring). Should we not sign up then?

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Masaru » 04 Nov 2009 06:55

Pakistan Names Projects for Chinese Investment

Mr. Ahmad also said the two governments are in talks to build a road and rail link from Pakistan's Gwadar Port, at the mouth of the Persian Gulf, to Xinjiang in western China. The port was jointly constructed by the two countries.

If the link is built, it might among other things help extend to Xinjiang the oil pipeline from Iran to Pakistan or the LNG route from Qatar to Pakistan, he said.

Asked if Pakistan is worried about Chinese state-owned enterprises taking control of some of its important companies, he said, "We don't have any concern, and we don't feel China is a threat."
:twisted:

The two countries' leaders have decided to set up a China-specific economic zone in Pakistan, he said, featuring a tax exemption as well as some legal protections.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Kakkaji » 04 Nov 2009 20:44

U.S. dumps China for Mexico

MEXICO CITY (CNNExpansion.com) -- Mexico did not have an extreme economic makeover, but the global recession was enough to defeat China as the number one place for American assembly-for-export factories, or maquiladoras.

"For many companies that want to export to the United States, like the maquiladoras, Mexico's exchange rate will be seen as a stable and permanent advantage and we are going to see much stronger investment flows associated to this industry,"

Mexico has become much more attractive, even Chinese companies are moving to the country to take advantage of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) commercial and fiscal benefits and export to the United States, said different experts in foreign trade.

"Compared to China and other manufacturing hubs, Mexico offers better access to North American markets with a shorter, faster and cheaper transportation route to move products and supplies by truck, rather than over thousands of miles by ship, rail, and truck combined,"

Mexico is the least expensive

An index developed by the global business advisory firm AlixPartners states that by the end of 2008, Mexico was the least expensive country for the U.S. to manufacture.

"The index showed that China, once the lowest cost supplier ... has now dropped to number three in LCC (low-cost countries) rankings, behind India 8) and the new number one, Mexico," according to the AlixPartners 2009 Manufacturing-Outsourcing Cost Index.

Manufacturing in Mexico costs around 68%; in India around 73%; in China, near 86% and in Brazil close to 91%, compared to costs in the United States.

China has lost its sex appeal for companies that manufacture due to the 20% appreciation of its currency against the dollar, the increase in the cost of freight and the cost of labor, AlixPartners explained in its report. During the same time, the peso has dropped 20% against the dollar.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby krishnan » 05 Nov 2009 12:32

Sex appeal? :rotfl:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby derkonig » 09 Nov 2009 18:49

AoA onlee....
http://infotech.indiatimes.com/news/telecom/Nokia-to-replace-14-mn-chargers/articleshow/5212061.cms
When you pay China plice, you only get China quarity......

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby svinayak » 12 Nov 2009 04:42

kumarn wrote:
Acharya ji, Based on this logic, now that China is the number one dog in Asia and that USSR is no more, shouldn't the west be now looking at India as the balancer to China?

Just trying to understand...



Check out how west is looking at china
http://www.rferl.org/content/When_The_W ... 75046.html

Another defining event in 1989 was the Tiananmen Square massacre of prodemocracy protesters in Beijing. But for the end of the Cold War, the West would not have let China off the hook for those killings.

New Strategic Partnerships

The Cold War’s end, however, facilitated the West’s adoption of a pragmatic approach, under which it shunned trade sanctions and helped integrate China into global institutions through the liberalizing influence of foreign investment and trade. Had the United States and its allies pursued the opposite approach centered on punitive sanctions, as have been applied against Cuba and Burma, for example, the result would have been a less-prosperous, less-open, and potentially destabilizing China.

China’s phenomenal economic success -- illustrated by its emergence with the world's biggest trade surplus, largest foreign-currency reserves, and greatest steel production -- owes a lot to the West’s decision not to sustain trade sanctions after Tiananmen Square. Having vaulted past Germany to become the world’s biggest exporter, China now is set to displace Japan as the world's No. 2 economy.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Prasanth » 13 Nov 2009 19:17

Found this while lurking in a Pakistani forum. If this is true, China is really dangerous!!! :eek:

CHINA'S MEGA MACHINES
http://translate.google.com/translate?hl=en&sl=zh-CN&tl=en&u=http%3A%2F%2Fforum.pakistanidefence.com%2Flofiversion%2Findex.php%2Ft79778.html

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby manish » 13 Nov 2009 20:10

Was this posted before? Incredible.

The Other Side of China's 8% GDP "Growth": Ghost Cities
All those who have spent late hours playing SimCity 3000 and never understood why the damn thing would never get any people to move into it, will derive a deranged pleasure from the following clip. In China, where 8% GDP is guaranteed and has to be "goal seeked" by any and every increasingly more deranged economic project, the authorities have taken the game of SimCity and applied it to real life. Alas, they started out on "difficult" level.

Ordos is a hyper modern city, full of brand new glass walled residential and commercial buildings, yet devoid of inhabitants. In its attempt to present a "growing" economy, and to "invest" its $585 billion stimulus into anything and everything, courtesy of comparable idiocy on the other side of the Pacific, China's communist party is now ruling over ghost towns. One wonders just how many such "efficient" projects sustain China's magical 8% growth.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Purush » 14 Nov 2009 00:26

http://www.malwarebytes.org/forums/inde ... opic=29772

Business as usual: chipanda 'software' company stealing IP from other companies; in this case it happens to be some company called IObit stealing from Malwarebytes a well known anti-malware company.

Best avoid any and all chini software on your systems, be it at work or at home.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby Purush » 14 Nov 2009 00:31

Prasanth wrote:Found this while lurking in a Pakistani forum. If this is true, China is really dangerous!!! :eek:

CHINA'S MEGA MACHINES
url-Paki forum url-


Please remove the link to the paki d&d forum.
Do not link to Paki forums, else the BRedators will rain hellphyrrs down upon your sorry musharraf. :mrgreen:

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby a_bharat » 15 Nov 2009 11:43

China to build 'Little India' to attract outsourcing

New Delhi: Wuxi, a picturesque city that lies along the Taihu Lake resort of the Jiangsu province in China, is planning to build a "little India" in years to come in order to become a major service outsourcing center.

Wuxi is traditionally a manufacturing city, but with a focus on environmental protection. After a serious blue-green algae outbreak in Taihu Lake, city leaders started to study how to transform the city's development. Wuxi decided to replace manufacturing with the service outsourcing industry, which has far less pollution and consumes much less energy, the China Daily reports.

The city is expected to attract 30 to 40 billion dollars in service outsourcing business and help create jobs for one million people by 2020, equivalent to that of India as a whole in 2007. The advancement of the service outsourcing industry cannot survive without a large talent pool. But the city three years ago learned that fewer than 2,000 students in the city were studying software and information technology fields.

As a result, Wuxi established a goal to build a total area of six million sqm for software service outsourcing within three years and encouraged enterprises to cultivate and import skilled workers. The local government joined India's National Institute of Information Technologies (NIIT), the world's second-largest educational institution to establish the NIIT (China) Outsourcing College in Wuxi as a training base for the city's outsourcing businesses.

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Re: PRC Economy News and Discussions

Postby krishnan » 15 Nov 2009 11:52

a_bharat wrote:The local government joined India's National Institute of Information Technologies (NIIT), the world's second-largest educational institution to establish the NIIT (China) Outsourcing College in Wuxi as a training base for the city's outsourcing businesses.


This NIIT should be banned for doing any biz in india :evil:


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