PRC Economy and Industry: News and Discussions

[somnath]

China just sold 228 bullet trains to Malaysia

Indeed..As well as suplying rakes to many of the Indian metro projects, including the one in Mumbai...The issue that China however will keep confronting is on IP - the blatant stealing of IP from commercial JVs and contracts have percolated down from the military to the civilian...But we'll see how that pans out...With its huge market, maybe China can get away with "robbery" of this sort...

When two Chinese people meet anywhere in the world, they see themselves as Chinese first regardless of socio-economic status

However, this is as bizarre as it gets - are you saying that the Chinese are not hierarchical and class-conscious? And somehow 70 years of communist rule in the mainland has turned every Chinese around the world as egalitarian "Voltaire"-ists?! Come on, like all Asians, Chinese are as class conscious as Indians (or Koreans, or Japs, or anyone else)...The upper crust Hong Kong-er surely does not have brtherhood in his mind about the denizens of Kowloon..That is as fallacious as the argument that all Singapore/HK chinese "look down" upon mainland folks in general..

Now, you argue that some nations were wealthy before they became full democracies. True, but those nations were never communist and the ones in Asia and Europe because far more wealthy under democracies than they were under their autocratic systems which were never the horrorshow that communism is. Japan and Germany in spite of war never killed off 20, 30, 40 million of their own people unlike the PRC and the USSR.

"Communist", "socialist" - these are mere labels...For a long time in the 20th century, thanks to Asia in particular, the record of "democracies" on economic performance was quite dismal..It took India's take-off in the '90s before the democracies started looking respecatable on aggregate...About Europe - almost every single country got rich under some form of autocracy - you can call it monarchy if you like! People killed? How many were killed under the various Tsars in Russia? How many indeed were killed during the French Revolution?

Which is why the Indian experiment is unique - a democracy trying its hand at miracle rates of growth is once-in-history experiment...In ocntrast, the Chinese "model" is unique only in scale, its track is well traversed by history...

[ashashi]

the high speed railway line would better serve smaller countries as it would only escalate cost in country of Chinese size. 1500 KM journey by bullet train would be as expensive an an airline ticket. And they have done it with a starving population.

Chinese chart of the day: airfares on the highly lucrative Beijing-Shanghai route, before and after the arrival of the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed train. This via the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation, in Sydney.See if you can guess when the high-speed rail service began. I hope to try it next month and see how it compares with the planes

http://www.theatlantic.com/internationa ... ay/241598/

Even if high speed train costs a much as an airline ticket, comfort and convenience of the train make it a worth while alternative.

[gakakkad]

Can we get any national wide stats on Indians emigating abroad ? I want to know the trends over the last few years.

I have the list of 50k indian docs in US now and been doing some market analysis. The US reforms will create demand but with difference and Indians may do most of the work from India.

It is not possible for doctors to work from remote locations unlike call center employee's. The telemedicine approach has been envisaged for radiology wherein scans are taken in one are and e-mailed to a radiologist in a different geographic location for interpretation. But success has been very limited. Large scale tele medicine is decades away.
The American market is already saturated with docs. They have 1 doctor /250 people or something of that sort. The problem with the American healthcare sector is over employment. The reason I wish to practise in India is because my dad owns decent hospitals here and he makes more than American docs. The projected shortage of docs in US and an attempt to increase residency training slots is a policy error in my opinion. You might find unemployed docs in US in 2020 + time frame. It is India where Docs are needed. (1 doc /2000 people ) . 50K DOCS do work there but most of them have been around for more than a decade. I want to know if emigration rate amongst Indian's is changing or not. Because most chinese i met admit that if they can leave China they do so.

@asashi - I suppose it is a purposeful move by the gov't to reduce airfare suddenly . Besides I believe that the bullet train fare's are subsidized. Lets see how Japs take their IPR theft. Comfort and convenience is ok . But still the time taken by train will be 3 times that much of aircraft. Lets see if they can recover the cost.

[svinayak]

[

It is not possible for doctors to work from remote locations unlike call center employee's.

Can you explain this. What if the patients are outsourced to India.

[abhischekcc]

A lot of medical services are outsourced to India, only final diagnosis (face time activity) need be done in the US, and only because the patient's comfort is served by the physical presence of a doctor. Do not think of medical outsourcing only as transcription, that phase went out of fashion a long time ago.

People will seek more and more online medical help and India is in a good position to offer these services.

India should aggresively start teaching foreign languages besides English to its population to take over the global market for services.

[ashashi]

@asashi - I suppose it is a purposeful move by the gov't to reduce airfare suddenly . Besides I believe that the bullet train fare's are subsidized. Lets see how Japs take their IPR theft. Comfort and convenience is ok . But still the time taken by train will be 3 times that much of aircraft. Lets see if they can recover the cost.

You made a point and I responded to it. Now you getting all defensive and incoherent.

If you consider that time it takes to travel 20-30 miles outside the city to get to and from the airport, reporting an hour before the flight time for security checks and waiting for 30 for half an hour to get the baggage.....the an hour flight becomes 3-4 hour ordeal.

[gakakkad]

@asashi - I suppose it is a purposeful move by the gov't to reduce airfare suddenly . Besides I believe that the bullet train fare's are subsidized. Lets see how Japs take their IPR theft. Comfort and convenience is ok . But still the time taken by train will be 3 times that much of aircraft. Lets see if they can recover the cost.

You made a point and I responded to it. Now you getting all defensive and incoherent.

If you consider that time it takes to travel 20-30 miles outside the city to get to and from the airport, reporting an hour before the flight time for security checks and waiting for 30 for half an hour to get the baggage.....the an hour flight becomes 3-4 hour ordeal.

yeah but spending 100 billion + on something that will that is mere comfort value is not justifiable.

[somnath]

If you consider that time it takes to travel 20-30 miles outside the city to get to and from the airport, reporting an hour before the flight time for security checks and waiting for 30 for half an hour to get the baggage.....the an hour flight becomes 3-4 hour ordeal

There are well documented studies on HSR - takign these and many more factors into account, typically the cost benefits vis a vis airlines taper off at a certain distance...HSR isnt really suitable for long distance travel...Its a bit premature to conclude anythign from airline ticket prices so soon - let the novelty wear off, then we will have a better handle...

Most of the studies are based on European experience - China arguably has greater demand, so lets see....Its tough to conclude either ways - though in terms of sheer capital costs, it is difficult to envisage these projects ever breaking even....

[gakakkad]

A lot of medical services are outsourced to India, only final diagnosis (face time activity) need be done in the US, and only because the patient's comfort is served by the physical presence of a doctor. Do not think of medical outsourcing only as transcription, that phase went out of fashion a long time ago.

People will seek more and more online medical help and India is in a good position to offer these services.

India should aggresively start teaching foreign languages besides English to its population to take over the global market for services.

Large part of medicine is procedural. You cannot do procedures remotely. The aspects the can best be covered by tele medicine are radiology and consultation . Hospitalization does not have a substitute that can be 'outsourced' in a conventional way. Medical tourism as an industry will surely grow. So will the role of docs increase in treating overseas patients. But I don't visualise doctors anywhere in the world to be solely dependant on the tourism business. Currently most of the clients in the healthcare tourism business are seeking expensive elective surgery (like hip and knee replacement) . Infertility and surrogacy are important business avenues. But I don't see more than 2 % American surgeries being done outside in the future. The Indian industry would flourish. But clients would be from many different place.

In case of china organ transplant seems to be the biggest business. It is rumored that the high rate of execution provides a decent supply of organs . The chinese want to mass produce everything regardless of ethical and human right implications. The truly evil empire.

[girish.r]

Hi,

Nice article on the Economist:

The mystery of the Chinese consumer

LILY LI wears a lanyard with a little plastic card around her neck, even at weekends. It is a badge of honour: it shows that she has a white-collar job. (She is a secretary at Access Asia, a retail-research company in Shanghai.) She uses Apple earphones for the cheap Chinese mobile phone in her pocket, so it looks as if she owns an iPhone. And she drives to work, though it takes four times longer than public transport, just to show off her little car.

Link to this page: http://www.economist.com/node/18928514

[nandakumar]

[quote="somnath"]
Indeed..As well as suplying rakes to many of the Indian metro projects, including the one in Mumbai...The issue that China however will keep confronting is on IP - the blatant stealing of IP from commercial JVs and contracts have percolated down from the military to the civilian...But we'll see how that pans out...With its huge market, maybe China can get away with "robbery" of this sort...

I had a discussion, some months ago, with a China based management consultant of some standing. This is what he had to say.
When China opened up its markets for foreigners to pitch for huge infrastructure projects that the Chinese Government was planning, the latter made it clear that they can bid for these contracts only through joint venture companies involving a local partner.
For instance, if Alstom wanted to bid for Chinese railway projects they can come in only through a local partner in a 50:50 JV. The JV company will be capitalised with a combination of IP and cash or just IP on the part of the foreign partner (Alstom or Siemens etc.) and the local partner too for his part will chip in with cash and services in kind which would be valued for purposes of issue of equity shares in the company.
The Chinese Government also stipulated that the intellectual property will be the property of the JV company. Such a stipulation is legally supefluous. Because if the foreign company had valued the IP for determining its capital contribution and got shares issued, it goes without saying that the IP really belongs to the JV company. Anyway that is an aside. The fact remains that the know-how developed with years of research on the part of the foreign company has now been recognised as the joint property of the foreign company and its Chinese local partner.
This is where the story acquires a significant twist. The JV company though nominally a 50:50 JV is nevertheless driven primarily by the local Chinese management.
They (Chinese JVs) went ahead and bid for projects in third-world countries. We saw that happen in India. In power project after power project in India, the Chinese equipment supplier armed with either Siemens or Areva or Alstom technology simply outbid the foreign parent coming in in their own capacity.
Is that a theft of foreign IP? Hard to say. In defence of the foreign company it could be said that they really didn't think that the Chinese JV posed any threat to their capacity to bid and win projects in third world countries. A grievous miscallculation, perhaps.
On the other hand, it is entirely possible that the volume of business from the original Chinese projects was so huge that the supply of equipments by the foreign vendor with a loading for the IP value fully monetised the R&D expenditure of the latter. It doesn't lie in the mouths of the likes of Areva and the Siemens to now complain of IP theft by the Chinese.
For the latest crop of mega projects the foreign companies with cutting edge technologies are still actively vying with one another for winning them. A case in point is that of the Chinese bid for passenger aircraft contract. At stake is a humongous amount of contract value for various sub-systems of an aircraft. For instance, Honeywell is bidding to supply the electronics for fly-by-wire software on the same terms as the original bidders for high-speed-rail projects or super critical boiler technology for thermal power projects. Can Honeywell truly claim that they were not aware that they were putting up their know-how as a sweetener for winning those contracts?
Foreign suppliers may be pardoned for not knowing the rules the game in 80s. But they can't still be pleading ignorance with the weight of past experience of dealing with Chinese authorities. As the saying goes, 'Fool me once, Shame on you. Fool me a second time, Shame on me.'

[somnath]

^^^Thats a fair point....Though one must look at what the legal fineprint of the JV agreements say on IP...These MNCs have been at it for many years - one can be sure that the legalese would be pretty ironclad...But the legalese is as good as the legal "enforcement" on the ground! Where the Chinese of course, are legendary!

But interesting insight...

[svinayak]

Large part of medicine is procedural. You cannot do procedures remotely. The aspects the can best be covered by tele medicine are radiology and consultation . Hospitalization does not have a substitute that can be 'outsourced' in a conventional way. Medical tourism as an industry will surely grow. So will the role of docs increase in treating overseas patients. But I don't visualise doctors anywhere in the world to be solely dependant on the tourism business. Currently most of the clients in the healthcare tourism business are seeking expensive elective surgery (like hip and knee replacement) . Infertility and surrogacy are important business avenues. But I don't see more than 2 % American surgeries being done outside in the future. The Indian industry would flourish. But clients would be from many different place.

Got this from my family

I'm not sure of the exact statistics, but from my brief stint so far, many programs in primary care are closing because of lack of funding and increase healthcare spending/lack of reimbursements. In the midwest alone (including my city) there have been up to 20 closings, along with many clinics closing, thereby leaving thousands without a doc. Hence emergency rooms are becoming the primary care for most with or without insurance due to the lack of docs. Also if you notice the current demographics, the overall health of america is declining - just look at childhood obesity - the rates of diabetes and cardiovascular disease have increased tremendously. Once again in my brief stint, in the past year I personally dx several cases of breast cancer under 35 as well as heart attacks and diabetes type 2 under 35!!! Completely unheard of by my fellow attendings and was not part of my medical school training! Thus the need for more will come sooner than expected.

[ashi]

I for one will not bet against China's economy, despite some temporarily downturn may happen sometime down the road. Those bears and short sellers need to be careful

China's trade gap widens

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- China's trade surplus continued to grow in June, even as the export powerhouse's manufacturing sector slowed slightly.

China recorded a $22.3 billion surplus in June, up from a $13.05 billion surplus in May, China's General Administration of Customs said Saturday.

Contrary to popular American belief, exports count for a very small percentage of China's overall economy, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics.

Rather, China's economic growth is more driven by its rapid modernization, as its poor rural population starts moving into its sprawling cities.
"Their trade balance is pretty darn good and is going to continue to remain good, but trade is not as important to their economy as we think it is," he said. "With 900 million people left on the farms to move into the cities, that's what's going to drive growth."

[gakakkad]

I'm not sure of the exact statistics, but from my brief stint so far, many programs in primary care are closing because of lack of funding and increase healthcare spending/lack of reimbursements. In the midwest alone (including my city) there have been up to 20 closings, along with many clinics closing, thereby leaving thousands without a doc. Hence emergency rooms are becoming the primary care for most with or without insurance due to the lack of docs. Also if you notice the current demographics, the overall health of america is declining - just look at childhood obesity - the rates of diabetes and cardiovascular disease have increased tremendously. Once again in my brief stint, in the past year I personally dx several cases of breast cancer under 35 as well as heart attacks and diabetes type 2 under 35!!! Completely unheard of by my fellow attendings and was not part of my medical school training! Thus the need for more will come sooner than expected.

I agree. In fact Just today morning I had an anterior wall myocardial infarct with whole length of Left anterior descending artery blocked in a 38 year old man. The thing is that there is an excess number of doctors in USA.Not the shortage that people are claiming .Apparent shortage is due to the fact that docs spend less time on patients and more time on documents. Many primary care guys have reduced working hours and only work for 25 hours a week. Than we have the government screwing all that can be possibly screwed. So doctors are not able to work in many places due to reimbursement and other financial issues . Many primary care docs are accepting retainers . (it reduces their pay). The whole system needs to be restructured. But due to the commercial interests of private insurers and pharma companies it will not happen. No matter how many PCP's you add it will not change the situation. In fact the first scapegoats will be docs. Their will be a pay cut even though doc payment only accounts for 1 % of expenditure. This is because docs don't have any lobbies. And no foreign doc from India or other decent places will want to work in US in 2020 timeframe .(especially because they ll need to repeat residency training) Practise is too much head ache already. No foreigner will want to do the dirty work for america. Outsiders won't mind lucrative surgeries and procedural stuff. But primary care is head ache without money in a litigious environment.

[gakakkad]

I for one will not bet against China's economy, despite some temporarily downturn may happen sometime down the road. Those bears and short sellers need to be careful

China's trade gap widens

NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- China's trade surplus continued to grow in June, even as the export powerhouse's manufacturing sector slowed slightly.

China recorded a $22.3 billion surplus in June, up from a $13.05 billion surplus in May, China's General Administration of Customs said Saturday.

Contrary to popular American belief, exports count for a very small percentage of China's overall economy, according to Carl Weinberg, chief economist of High Frequency Economics.

Rather, China's economic growth is more driven by its rapid modernization, as its poor rural population starts moving into its sprawling cities.
"Their trade balance is pretty darn good and is going to continue to remain good, but trade is not as important to their economy as we think it is," he said. "With 900 million people left on the farms to move into the cities, that's what's going to drive growth."

We know all that . That Chinese growth is export driven . AND investment driven . redundant investment in infrastructure. (or modernization as you call it)

[ravar]

Well, karma catching up with Chinese HSR...

Brand-new Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway suffers a malfunction

China’s official Xinhua News Agency reported late last night, in both Chinese and English releases, that the G151 train on the country’s brand-new Beijing-Shanghai high-speed railway suffered a malfunction yesterday that resulted in a delay of “more than an hour.” On the basis of reports in social media, however, news websites (including Shanghai’s Xinmin Online), reported that the delay was two hours. Xinhua reported that “this malfunction was principally caused by thunderstorms.” Principally?

News of the malfunction on the high-speed rail spread quickly on social media, where Chinese were reading a different account of what happened on the line. Xinmin Online, the official news website of Shanghai’s Xinmin Evening News, quoted user “shirley_wang1018″ writing on a microblog account that the train stopped for more than an hour, slowly started up again and had a second malfunction just 20 minutes later. Another web user wrote that there was no air circulation in the train cars, that the cars were leaning slightly, and that passengers were very nervous. Rail employees apparently explained to passengers that thunderstorms had caused an interruption of power to the overhead line system.


[ABOVE: A photo posted to Sina Weibo by a user aboard the Beijing-Shanghai high-speed rail shows passengers waiting in a dark car.]

A single Sina Weibo post by “Female Finance Reporter Bu Luo” (财经女记者部落) with a photo and short news brief on the rail malfunction had been shared more than 19,000 times by 2:30am on July 11. The post had more than 3,700 user comments.

The vast majority of users responded by voicing their anger and frustration, many voicing again concerns and criticisms that have followed the high-speed rail project through its history, particularly cost, corruption and safety. The rail, which officially opened to great fanfare on June 30, was an important sign of prestige and legitimacy for the Chinese Communist Party on the eve of its 90th anniversary on July 1. But many have bristled at the line’s price tag of 32.5 billion U.S. dollars. Rumors of corruption involving the project became news in February this year, when Liu Zhijun (刘志军), the head of the railway ministry, was arrested on charges of corruption.

“Sure the reason was ‘weather’,” Sina Weibo user “tata_Beijing” (塔塔_北京) said sarcastically.

“And they call it the safest rail in the world,” said user “turan kongjian” (突然空闲).

So this is what China is bidding for in the US, Oirope and other parts of the globe, a ride...err rather a stop in the middle of nowhere in a pitch dark cabin (where are the emergency lights??) for a couple of hours with no air circulation! The guy in the photo has his shirt all soaked up in sweat! Massive loss of H&D.

[ashashi]

China’s economy looks to be on shaky ground

food inflation for June shot up 2.7 per cent on the month to 14.4 per cent. Tomorrow, China will release its GDP statistics, which are expected to show the economy is slowing. Based on the authorities’ hawkish stance on controlling interest rates – if not the money supply – expectations are for China to tighten further to prove that it is on top of rising prices. That means the principal hope for driving global economic recovery is in peril.
...
“no country can be productive enough to reinvest 50 per cent of GDP in new capital stock without eventually facing immense overcapacity and a staggering non-performing loan problem.”
...
Michael Hewson of CMC Markets thinks China’s inflation could well be higher than the official statistics let on. While on GDP, professor Anthony J. Evans of ESCP Europe Business School says China is “the equivalent of studying Russia in the 1980s.” He has “little confidence that GDP figures are accurate, and even if they are, much of them could well be Keynesian style public work monstrosities."

[svinayak]

I agree. In fact Just today morning I had an anterior wall myocardial infarct with whole length of Left anterior descending artery blocked in a 38 year old man. The thing is that there is an excess number of doctors in USA.Not the shortage that people are claiming .Apparent shortage is due to the fact that docs spend less time on patients and more time on documents. Many primary care guys have reduced working hours and only work for 25 hours a week. Than we have the government screwing all that can be possibly screwed. So doctors are not able to work in many places due to reimbursement and other financial issues . Many primary care docs are accepting retainers . (it reduces their pay). The whole system needs to be restructured. But due to the commercial interests of private insurers and pharma companies it will not happen. No matter how many PCP's you add it will not change the situation. In fact the first scapegoats will be docs. Their will be a pay cut even though doc payment only accounts for 1 % of expenditure. This is because docs don't have any lobbies. And no foreign doc from India or other decent places will want to work in US in 2020 timeframe .(especially because they ll need to repeat residency training) Practise is too much head ache already. No foreigner will want to do the dirty work for america. Outsiders won't mind lucrative surgeries and procedural stuff. But primary care is head ache without money in a litigious environment.

The total # of doctors (?600-750K)in the Country counted as a whole ( include those in research, military, VA retired, semi retired, licensed in USA and practicing else where) is ENTIRELY different from doctors practicing in Clinical-direct patient care especially PRIMARY HEALTH CARE providers like FPs. GPs internists. There is acute shortage of primary care providers in spite of physician Assits, Nurse practioners etc. Most of the foreign doctors get extra training and become specialists in various fields. Besides predominant Med school graduates these days are women who may leave, limit or work part time

So picture is entirely different for some one from out side who thinks 'an MD is an MD like' any other! WRONG!

Besides there mal-distribution of doctors across the geographic areas1 Plus Demographics indicate more aging baby boomers retiring with multiple chronic diseases like hear failure, emphysema, diabetes, arthritis Cancer which need CONTINUOUS care. Most of the places including midwest, one has to wait days/weeks for an appointment! Some older docs don't even participate or take Medicare/Medicaid patients! So effectively most of the population don't have ready access to primary care doctors!

[gakakkad]

@ Acharya ji - That is the same point I want to make. The apparent shortage is due to the fact that no one wants to practise primary care in the US . Neither the Americans nor the expatriate docs. Your relative is right as I myself will become a cardiologist. Yes US has an ageing population with a lot of chronic ailments that need continuous care. But the primary driver for selecting a branch is economics. Typically primary care docs only make between 125k-180k and have lot of headaches of documentation etc. Yes in a ideal world the driving force should be love for patient care. But in the real world things are economically driven. Drastic steps are needed to salvage the situation . A decade ago no Indian would want to go back . But now half of them want to return after finishing education. This is an indication of things to come. No one wants to serve under served areas now. Surely not in the future.That's why green card programs for those have failed. A possible solution can be outsourcing via video conferencing in centers manned by PA's and RNs. But opposition against this would be simply too strong. I mean the insurers wont have a problem as for them it would be cheaper. But ACGME . AMA etc would be outraged. ("how can a non board certified doc from india take care of our patients via remote locations? bla bla bla) . Even though Indian pcps would do a better job and not indulge in defensive medicine.

[Hari Seldon]

^^^Why not outsource the paperwork/ documentation headaches then, eh? Just wondering only.

[vera_k]

It is not possible for doctors to work from remote locations unlike call center employee's. The telemedicine approach has been envisaged for radiology wherein scans are taken in one are and e-mailed to a radiologist in a different geographic location for interpretation. But success has been very limited. Large scale tele medicine is decades away.

IMO it is a mistake to use the American healthcare market as a guide for anything here, simply because of the trade barriers put in place over many decades. On my travels here in India, I was told of a radiologist who runs 5 centers around the world (not Europe or USA), but works out of a town in rural India. That tells me that the opportunities are in the Indian, ASEAN, West Asia markets than the more protected ones.

[svinayak]

@ Acharya ji - A possible solution can be outsourcing via video conferencing in centers manned by PA's and RNs. But opposition against this would be simply too strong. I mean the insurers wont have a problem as for them it would be cheaper. But ACGME . AMA etc would be outraged. ("how can a non board certified doc from india take care of our patients via remote locations? bla bla bla) . Even though Indian pcps would do a better job and not indulge in defensive medicine.

Why not outsource the limbs and organs and get it repaired. That way things can be still be outsource. heh just kidding.
There is also robotics intravenous procedure. That can be outsourced and be very cost effective

[Vasu]

I'm sorry, why are we discussing the US healthcare industry in this thread?

[harbans]

Just a gentle reminder to those that may think nothing can go bust with the Chinese boom:

1929 Stock Market

Irving Fisher was a noted 20th century economist. No less an authority than Milton Friedman called him "the greatest economist the United States has ever produced," and many of his contributions to economics, such as the Fisher equation, the Fisher hypothesis and the Fisher separation theorem are cited by economists to this day.

Yet despite his intellect, he made one statement in 1929 that destroyed his credibility for the rest of his life.

Three days before the Wall Street Crash of that year, he claimed that, " s tocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau." When he was disproved 72 hours later, he tried to get out from under the statement, but months of putting a positive spin on developments only further eroded his reputation. He died in 1947, but a renewed interest in neoclassical economics in the 1950s caused a re-evaluation of his work and a rehabilitation of his name.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/43094187?slide=2

PS: Do read on other predictions gone completely wrong..

[ashi]

China's growth rate slows slightly, but remains at torrid pace

China's economy grew at the slowest pace since 2009, but still managed to expand faster than expected in the second quarter. The growth eased fears of a hard landing and strengthened Beijing's resolve to fight persistently high inflation.

"These are very good numbers," said Liu Li-Gang, an economist with ANZ in Hong Kong.

"This is perhaps the reason the (central bank) raised interest rates last week. They are showing they are not afraid of a significant slowdown in the economy."

The growth figures underlined the resilience of the world's second-largest economy, thanks to the country's rapid urbanization, and could soothe investor concerns about an abrupt slowdown that would dent demand for global commodities.

"The data should also help to dispel the wilder fears of an economic collapse in China," said George Worthington, an economist with IFR, a Thomson Reuters unit.

[VikramS]

Land Valuations and Asset backed bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-1 ... toxic.html

“It’s a huge myth that land sales are going to be able to even support the interest payments let alone the principal payments,” says Stephen Green, the Hong Kong-based head of Greater China research at Standard Chartered Plc. (STAN) His research team assumes that at least 4-6 trillion yuan of local government loans -- and possibly much more -- will ultimately not be repaid by the projects, Green wrote in a June 29 report on China’s debt.
Echoes of U.S. Crisis
Local governments set up more than 10,000 so-called financing vehicles in the past decade to get around laws prohibiting them from taking direct loans. One third of them don’t have cash flow to service their loans, China’s banking regulator says.
The similarities with special purpose vehicles in the U.S. hiding toxic repackaged mortgages from banks’ balance sheets are increasing. Subsequent losses prompted the U.S. government and central bank to lend, spend or guarantee a peak of $12.8 trillion in 2009 to rescue the financial industry, including a $45 billion direct investment to rescue Citigroup Inc. (C), then the biggest U.S. financial services company.
‘Playing with Fire’
“It means that China is playing with fire like we played with fire when we had all those SPVs that took everything supposedly off the books,” says Carl Walter, who retired this year as the chief operating officer in China for JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) “It didn’t take them off the books. Citibank went down.”

And the icing on the cake

Better Than Treasuries
Foreign ratings companies don’t assess China’s local bond market and domestic evaluations vary. Beijing-based Dagong Global Credit Rating Co. rates Loudi’s bonds at its fourth- highest investment grade, one level higher than it gives to U.S. Treasuries. That’s in spite of its own December 2010 report that said: “The city’s ability to balance the general budget is decreasing and the results of the sales of land use rights will impact the company’s ability to invest and do construction.”
...

Beijing-based China International Capital Corp., often referred to as CICC, gives Loudi its third-lowest rating, a speculative or non-investment grade.

[vina]

Land Valuations and Asset backed bonds
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-1 ... toxic.html

VikramS, using land sales /land as collateral is exactly how Singapore and Hong Kong financed a large part of their growth and their incredible infrastructure. There the land is limited, the govts control most of it, the govts control the supply very well and land sales/leases are used to raise cash. As I said earlier China is just 'out Asean ing" Singapore here as well. The problem is, while that model will work fine for maybe Shanghai and Beijing and prbobably Tianjin, I doubt it can work for China as a whole. It sure as hell cant work in Ordos and whatever Chairman Mao's birthplace is.

[VikramS]

vina

Hong Kong and Singapore are tiny island/city-state type constructs where land is worth a lot. Everything goes up there.

It a vast country like China, this model may work in the top tier 1 cities. But not everywhere...

The mismatch between the ratings assigned by different credit agencies is comical if not frightening.

[somnath]

Hong Kong and Singapore are tiny island/city-state type constructs where land is worth a lot. Everything goes up there.

It a vast country like China, this model may work in the top tier 1 cities. But not everywhere...

Not just HK/SG, even in India, large parts of infrastructure is financed by using land values...RE firms leverage "land banks" to raise funding, govt gives development rights over tracts of land to developers building highways etc...Its standard all over the world...

Whether those land values are realistic is a different question - Indian RE firms have valuations of "land banks" that are a huge fudge...For China, it might well be a higher magnitude of a problem - likely to be, given their investment rates...

[SaiK]

so, they say china is now the number one leader in green & alternate energy technology. congrats in-spite of all copying and cheating allegations, they made it.

[ashashi]

New Chinese Highway Collapses after Two Days



I wonder what about the quality of the Chinese construction of projects which are undertaken for the sake of construction.

[ashashi]

Thamestown: A little piece of England in China

It's a very seductive idea that all you have to do is simply tell banks just go forth and lend, and you count the amount they've lended and the amount that's poured out as GDP, and then there's your growth. And of course, in the short term, that's fantastic. But it's not a healthy economy. That's an economy on steroids.

Thamestown is essentially a theme park marketed as a "city".

[chola]

so, they say china is now the number one leader in green & alternate energy technology. congrats in-spite of all copying and cheating allegations, they made it.

In spite of? You mean because of all the copying and cheating.

This is a deliberate process of stealing technology for access to the Chinese market. It's a bludgeon. You know we are stealing from you but you better shut up if you want to stay in our market.

I have no sympathy for these firms anyways. They pile into China knowing full well that they are cutting their own throats in the future. There are far safer places for their technology around the world, including India. But they insist on the lions' den.

[chola]

New Chinese Highway Collapses after Two Days

I wonder what about the quality of the Chinese construction of projects which are undertaken for the sake of construction.

Rushing construction to finish on time for the Party's 90th party? How does this nation survive the fall of communism elsewhere in the world? This kind if idiocy controlling the economy shouldn't work at all.

Remember the earthquake in China a few years ago? Thousands of children died in schools that collapsed while old fashion mudhuts next to them would survive the shaking.

This is pretty common for communism. Inefficient and corrupt to the core.

The saving grace for the lizard is it does accept foreign investment, design and expertise which peppers enough quality works among its infrastructure that things run. That is the only thing that keeps it from going the way of the USSR.

But all this inefficiency will eventually catch up with them in the long run.

[harbans]

Many Chinese in India not willing to go back to China..excerpts in diff paras:

For many Chinese, the India story has played out like a series of never-ending sequels. "I was not keen to come to India. But India was a big shock to me. It is just as modern as China," says Liu. His idea of India was built on a diet of Mithun Chakraborty movies. That India was "traditional" and the malls, restaurants and roads that greeted him in India came as a pleasant surprise.

Easy Going

Indians too would be just as surprised with the attempts of Chinese businessmen to adapt, given that they were screaming foul at Indian conditions not long ago. "They have taken to India just as a duck takes to water," says an Indian businessman who has interacted with Sinosteel executives.

"Actually when I am in China, I feel like a stranger. I am more at home in India," he says without missing a beat. "I feel I am part of the society here."
Growing number of Chinese in India not willing to go back: Excerpts:

Like Eric, the scrum of Chinese businessmen turning to India is typically skittish about a posting due to a medley of prejudices, doubts and a history stuffed with animosity. Eventually, they become ensconced in a society that they say embraces them unreservedly. "Indians are warm and kind," says Shi Mingli, assistant representative of China Minmetals, who came to India in 2008.

Incredible India

Shi was not referring to Indian authorities. But thanks to the comity of ordinary Indians, Chinese executives who have spent years in India say their fears of tiptoeing through a minefield were largely unfounded.

Most Chinese businessmen that ET on Sunday met have been in India for more than four years. And they are hardly in a hurry to return. Liu, for instance, arrived in 2007. He says he'll stay put as long as business is good.

http://articles.economictimes.indiatime ... -minmetals

[ashashi]

China FDI Growth Slows

Investment from the U.S. dropped 22% in the January-June period to $1.68 billion, and Mr. Yao said this was in line with the global economic climate.

China Is Already Scared Of QE3, And Is Blaming The US For Its Inflation mess

"We are following closely whether the United States will introduce QE3, because we believe it will have a major impact on China's economy," said Yu, director-general of the Development Research Center's Department of Macroeconomic Research. "The drastic rise in commodity prices caused by the devaluation of the US dollar will have a major impact on inflation, on economic growth and on Chinese people's daily lives."

[ashashi]

Gary Shilling: China debt 100% of GDP. Hard landing by end of this year

[ashashi]

Consumer spending declines in China economy after peak days

“Consumption hasn’t taken off,” said Patrick Chovanec, an associate professor at Tsinghua University’s School of Economics and Management in Beijing. Analysts at Capital Economics, a London-based research group, estimate that private consumption may have fallen to 34 per cent of gross domestic product last year, the lowest level since China began opening its economy to market mechanisms more than three decades ago.

“Just at a time when the government in China and a lot of people elsewhere are hoping to see Chinese consumers step up to the plate, actually they’ve been staying away from shops,” said Mark Williams, an economist in London with Capital Economics and a former adviser on China to the UK Treasury.

[ashashi]

China’s Loan Sharks Turning Away Small Firms

Already frozen out by banks for working capital loans, China’s struggling small-business owners are now being turned away by a seemingly less risk-averse source: Loan sharks.

As Beijing tightens monetary policy to stem inflation, interest rates charged by black market lenders in China’s Zhejiang province have surged to 10% per month, the South China Morning Post reported Monday. The central bank’s benchmark one-year rate is currently 6.56%.

Zhejiang, a hub of the nation’s private-owned small-business sector, is known for a thriving underground banking system that provides entrepreneurs with millions of dollars in capital every year, according to the article.

Despite the added costs and risks, business owners told the Hong Kong daily they were turning to loan sharks out of desperation to prop up sagging cash flows – only to be rejected, they said.

“They are now aware of the default risks and reluctant to lend to struggling businesses,” one Ningbo-based businessman said.

More than 7,000 companies have been forced to close in Zhejiang this year, the result of slumping sales, inflation and rising interest rates, according to the People’s Daily, Beijing’s flagship newspaper.