Swine Flu Monitor for India

[vipins]

223 swine flu cases reported on Saturday in Delhi

This is the highest number of cases reported in a day since the infection entered the city.

[sumishi]

According to statistics, 36,000 people die in US yearly due to regular flu. If the current trend of swine flu deaths (approx 2400 in 8 months) in US is extrapolated to a year, with some extras thrown in, it will come to less than 4,000.

According to WHO's report, about 8,000 deaths have occurred worldwide in about 8 months. Also, according to their data, 300,000 - 500,000 people worldwide die every year from regular flu.

And swine flu is classified as a pandemic!!

In fact, the Department of Health in US had declared a nationwide emergency in April 2009 when there were only 4 cases reported and 0 deaths. In May, WHO changed the definition of pandemic to remove the phrase "enormous numbers of deaths and illnesses" to bring the swine flu into the "pandemic" category. CDC stopped testing for swine flu in the US in July because they realised that it was not epidemic.

Meanwhie, International media goes out and creates the panic worldwide, and national media followed suit. (Heck I went out and bought twenty sets of surgeon masks myself!!). Media doesn't report yearly data on deaths due to regular flu, and so the comparatively much lower swine flu deaths being reported came as a shocker to people.

At a lower level, two things can be considered. (1) There is an obvious pharmaceutical connection. The big pharma stand to make millions from vaccines. (2) Also, for health agencies like WHO and CDC, positive budget justification is inversely proportional to a healthy populace, and so pandemics increase their importance.

Reports of side-effects of the swine flu vaccines on those taking them have started surfacing.

[Santosh Pandey]

According to statistics, 36,000 people die in US yearly due to regular flu. If the current trend of swine flu deaths (approx 2400 in 8 months) in US is extrapolated to a year, with some extras thrown in, it will come to less than 4,000.

According to WHO's report, about 8,000 deaths have occurred worldwide in about 8 months. Also, according to their data, 300,000 - 500,000 people worldwide die every year from regular flu.

And swine flu is classified as a pandemic!!

In fact, the Department of Health in US had declared a nationwide emergency in April 2009 when there were only 4 cases reported and 0 deaths. In May, WHO changed the definition of pandemic to remove the phrase "enormous numbers of deaths and illnesses" to bring the swine flu into the "pandemic" category. CDC stopped testing for swine flu in the US in July because they realised that it was not epidemic.

Meanwhie, International media goes out and creates the panic worldwide, and national media followed suit. (Heck I went out and bought twenty sets of surgeon masks myself!!). Media doesn't report yearly data on deaths due to regular flu, and so the comparatively much lower swine flu deaths being reported came as a shocker to people.

At a lower level, two things can be considered. (1) There is an obvious pharmaceutical connection. The big pharma stand to make millions from vaccines. (2) Also, for health agencies like WHO and CDC, positive budget justification is inversely proportional to a healthy populace, and so pandemics increase their importance.

Reports of side-effects of the swine flu vaccines on those taking them have started surfacing.

What would you do when a new strain of virus shows agressive signs of circulation ???? Wait for deaths to occur or take preventive steps to stop the infection !!!! If the same WHO had waited for an year to declare it a pandemic, the same people would have critisized it for being a laggard. The very nature of pandemics force the healthcare system to be preemptive. SAARS and Swine Flu are big examples of successful pandemic controll. just read the death toll from these two vis a vis past pandemics.

[Santosh Pandey]

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/Zy ... ne/618102/

Indigenous swine flu vaccine at last... will be beneficial as it is still a month before monsoon begins..

[sumishi]

What would you do when a new strain of virus shows agressive signs of circulation ???? Wait for deaths to occur or take preventive steps to stop the infection !!!! If the same WHO had waited for an year to declare it a pandemic, the same people would have critisized it for being a laggard. The very nature of pandemics force the healthcare system to be preemptive. SAARS and Swine Flu are big examples of successful pandemic controll. just read the death toll from these two vis a vis past pandemics.

British Medical Journal -- WHO and the pandemic flu "conspiracies"

ABC News -- World Health Organization Scientists Linked to Swine Flu Vaccine Makers

The Washington Post -- Reports accuse WHO of exaggerating H1N1 threat, possible ties to drug makers

[ShauryaT]

There is one thing that is mysterious about this strain and that is the type of population it has affected, resulting in casualties. Young adults in the 18-35 age group, who should typically be able to fight it off. The deaths in this age group has been higher than the traditional strain.

Hence a cause for some concern.

Can private practitioners in India administer the vaccine or does it still have to be a government approved blah, blah.

[sumishi]

There is one thing that is mysterious about this strain and that is the type of population it has affected, resulting in casualties. Young adults in the 18-35 age group, who should typically be able to fight it off. The deaths in this age group has been higher than the traditional strain...

That's curious, isn't it? Seems like H1N1 wishes to get rid of the population in the productive band in an economy.

[Tanaji]

There is one thing that is mysterious about this strain and that is the type of population it has affected, resulting in casualties. Young adults in the 18-35 age group, who should typically be able to fight it off. The deaths in this age group has been higher than the traditional strain.

Hence a cause for some concern.

Can private practitioners in India administer the vaccine or does it still have to be a government approved blah, blah.

No medical expert myself, but that was expected behaviour: 18-35 have the most active immune systems. When H1N1 affects, the immune system tries to fight it off, but due to the nature of the virus, a phenomenon called a cytokine storm occurs in the body. For H1N1, this results in the body's immune system literally start attacking itself, and the patient dies. For people with less powerful immune systems, this phenomenon is not so pronounced and hence they are less affected.

Bing/google around for "cytokine storm h1n1" and you will get info...

[ShauryaT]

Thanks for the pointer. Tanaji.

[sooraj]

Kerala govt orders massive culling of ducks after tests confirm avian influenza
http://indianexpress.com/article/india/ ... influenza/

[ramana]

Quite a few people died in Hyderabad in Dec 2014 of flu.

[SaiK]

I would not be surprised if we move this thread to mil forum soon... such is the fear of biological warfare. it doesn't take huge money to do this on any nation, and India in particular is totally standing naked!

[SaiK]

heard the recent radio news? regarding nations banning birds from the khan lands?

[Neshant]

If India does not already have a nation-wide plan to deal with virulent and infectious pandemics, it is very foolish. There should literally be a centralized monitoring center to monitor outbreaks of diseases with hospitals hooked up into a national grid reporting in all cases of flu and illnesses. A sudden spike in one location and action can be taken immediately to quarantine the area.

Its only a matter of when not if it will strike. One such strike can shave off a huge chuck of the economy and damage trade for years.

[Singha]

Swine flu is approaching worrisome levels in western and now south india. every day some people are dying.
in blr yesterday 3 women died.

there is also shortage of the tablet FLUVIR which some 51 chemists are authorized to sell in blr but mostly they do not have it in stock. each tab cost Rs48.

this thread is for news and views on swine flu in india. Rajasthan and MH seem the worst impacted for now.

[Singha]

http://www.thehindu.com/news/cities/ban ... 869116.ece


Karnataka
Bangalore

Three more A(H1N1) deaths were reported in the city on Saturday, taking the toll to six in the State.

The victims were Ramakrishna (49), Krishnaveni (45) and Muniyellappa (41).

According to an official in the communicable diseases wing of the Health Department, all had chronic secondary infections.

Meanwhile, 20 more cases tested positive on Saturday, taking the total number of confirmed cases to 95.

Death toll rises in Gujarat

PTI reports from Ahmedabad:

With five more persons succumbing to swine flu in Gujarat on Saturday, the death toll in the state since January has reached 71, an official statement said.“ While there were two deaths in Kutch, one fatality each was reported in Ahmedabad, Amreli and Surat,” the statement from Gujarat government said.Besides, 70 new swine flu cases were reported on Saturday in the State, taking the total number of positive cases to 627 since January 1, the statement said. Kutch, the worst-affected district in the state, today reported another 10 cases of swine flu. So far the district has had 199 positive cases and 25 deaths due to the H1N1 virus infection.Ahmedabad district has so far reported 105 positive cases and 13 deaths.

Health Minister visits hospital

Gujarat Health Minister Nitin Patel visited the Civil hospital here during the day to take stock of the situation and held talks with doctors on the treatment of patients.

Talking to reporters after the visit, Mr. Patel said swine flu cases have been on the rise since the last two weeks and several patients from the neighbouring states like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh are also undergoing treatment in the city.“There are 44 patients from Rajasthan and four from Madhya Pradesh, who are being treated in Civil hospital here,” Patel said.

[Singha]

shortage of fluvir tablets
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 267778.cms

I hope a national level control room is tracking daily updates in the health ministry (like CDC does for khanate)...there is a phase in a outbreak where it goes batnuts and exponential in infection numbers before stabilizing again.

also a govt lab has found the indian h1n1 virus has mutated into something else from the original strain...

[Vikas]

Why only few chemists are authorised to sell these tablets ?
Are their companies that mfg these tablets in India ?

People across India are dying like flies. We are staring into a epidemic without realizing it.

http://indiatoday.intoday.in/story/swin ... 19332.html

The death toll from swine flu in 2015 has jumped to 585 with 100 more casualties reported in the country since February 12. The centre has ordered additional stocks of medicines and diagnostic kits.

The total number of swine flu deaths had stood at 485 till February 12 but the latest official data released on Monday said that 100 more people had succumbed to the H1N1 virus in the last three days till February 15, taking the toll to 585.

Altogether, 8,423 people have contracted swine flu this year in the country. Rajasthan, Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh and Maharashtra are the worst-affected states with their respective tolls standing at 165, 144, 76 and 58, official figures said.

On February 15 alone, Rajasthan reported 12 deaths while there were eight fresh casualties each in Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat.

While Delhi and Tamil Nadu have reported a high incidence of swine flu cases, the death toll in the two states is relatively low due to high level of awareness and a better developed health sector.

Punjab has the highest ratio of the number of deaths to those affected by the disease. Of the 68 people who contracted the virus in the state this year, 28 have succumbed to swine flu.

Health ministry officials said they have sent central teams to the worst-affected states like Rajasthan and Gujarat and have developed appropriate guidelines.

"The government has already placed an order for enhancing stocks of diagnostic kits -- for testing for the H1N1 virus -- to be supplied to the lab network under Integrated Disease Surveillance Programme. To enhance the level of preparedness, additional stocks of the drug, Oseltamivir, and 10,000 N-95 masks are also being procured," an official statement said.

[member_28640]

Myths regarding Swine Flu :

1) You can get swine flu from eating pork

Wrong! Despite the common name of the disease, eating pork products doesn't spread H1N1 influenza (swine flu). The virus spreads through droplets expelled in the air from infected people coughing and sneezing. People are contagious from one day before to seven days after developing symptoms of swine flu.

2) The swine flu virus has mutated

Gene sequencing of the H1N1 virus by India's two premier labs - National Institute of Virology Pune and National Centre for Disease Control, Delhi - last week showed the virus has not mutated. The virus infecting people this year is the same as the one that infected less than 1,000 people last year.

3) There is no cure for swine flu

Having the anti-viral prescription drug Oseltamivir (commonly sold under the brand name Tamiflu) shortens the duration and severity of illness if the taken within 48 hours of the symptoms appearing. It also makes you less contagious and prevents infection. Oseltamivir also protects against other strains of influenza.

4) India has a shortage of drugs

There is no shortage. The virus causes mild disease in most people and less than 1% people infected need drugs for treatment. India has stockpiles of 60,000 adult doses of Oseltamivir (75mg and 45mg) and 1,000 doses of the paediatric syrup. Three pharma companies - Hetero, Natco and Strides Acrolab - have the manufacturing capacity and raw materials to produce the drug on a short notice.

5) You get swine flu only once in your life

The H1N1 virus works like other seasonal flu viruses and may re-infect you in the coming years. Since you can get it again and again if you are in frequent contact with contagious people, all health-workers treating people with swine flu are vaccinated against it. The vaccine offers a one-year protection against the virus.

Click to read more

[Singha]

>> India has stockpiles of 60,000 adult doses of Oseltamivir (75mg and 45mg) and 1,000 doses of the paediatric syrup

these are obviously not getting adequately distributed to where its needed. probably its time to produce a few lakh doses and flood the market. this will reduce anxiety about meds not being available which people are facing.

and 1000 doses of syrup is a mere token.

[Singha]

this article claims the virus is mutating
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/indi ... 215421.cms

BHOPAL/JABALPUR: Scientists at Indian Medical Council of Research (ICMR), Jabalpur, have reportedly detected variation in swine flu virus samples sent to their lab in the last one month. Doctors fear the virus may mutate into a more deadly strain.

Of 218 samples sent to them between January 1 and February 3, 78 have tested positive for Influenza A ( H1N1) pdm09 virus which was the trigger for the flu pandemic in 2009, said experts.

"Samples are being sent to National Institute of Virology (NIV) for further investigation. Virus isolated from throat swab samples of some patients has shown genetic mutation," said a medical officer at ICMR.

Small mutations in virus's genetic make-up have been detected at two positions and the change is being monitoring, he said.

[Singha]

imo our health minister should make a televised speech on all tv and radio channels and get it printed in newspapers too, saying what is the situation, what are the supply situation ..... such a top down authoritative speech is needed than leaving it loosely to each state or staying quiet.

the MSM will blame the NDA anyway if this gets worse, so no harm in being proactive.

[Altair]

How does Muslim community react if a comm member gets affected by Swine Flu? Is he cutlet?

[Singha]

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city ... 279178.cms

vaccines out of stock in blr.

[Javee]

In Chennai, there is a 4-5 day waiting period for adults and 1 day waiting period for kids. Not sure if the distributors are playing mind games but this is not an ideal situation. Per the doc's the vaccination will need to be done in the beginning of the season (pref Dec or Jan) and it will take a few weeks to take effect.

Here is a story, one of our neighbors got Swine flu (went to Delhi and contracted it either there or on the way) and the way they behave is nauseating. He went to Apollo and came back home and kept it hush hush so none of us knew that he had the flu. Immediately, this idiot of the neighbor took just his family and vaccinated them all, with out letting any one of us know. By protocol, Apollo let the State health officials know, who then sent a team home to monitor his situation and advise him. They then went door to door in our apartment explaining the do's and the dont's and they fumigated our entire building. He was supposedly quarantined (at home), but my wife saw him walking around the building, which resulted in a call to the corporation who sent a team back to his house and educated this fool on the do's and dont's again. The building security informed yesterday that he has gone to the temple for Sivaratri I called the swine flu hotline myself and let them know that this imbecile is going to public places, not sure what happened after that.

[Suraj]

imo our health minister should make a televised speech on all tv and radio channels and get it printed in newspapers too, saying what is the situation, what are the supply situation ..... such a top down authoritative speech is needed than leaving it loosely to each state or staying quiet.

the MSM will blame the NDA anyway if this gets worse, so no harm in being proactive.

If you have an account at MyGov , please post it there in the health section. Several of us should do it to get more eyeballs. I'll do my bit.

[panduranghari]

In Chennai, there is a 4-5 day waiting period for adults and 1 day waiting period for kids. Not sure if the distributors are playing mind games but this is not an ideal situation. Per the doc's the vaccination will need to be done in the beginning of the season (pref Dec or Jan) and it will take a few weeks to take effect.

Here is a story, one of our neighbors got Swine flu (went to Delhi and contracted it either there or on the way) and the way they behave is nauseating. He went to Apollo and came back home and kept it hush hush so none of us knew that he had the flu. Immediately, this idiot of the neighbor took just his family and vaccinated them all, with out letting any one of us know. By protocol, Apollo let the State health officials know, who then sent a team home to monitor his situation and advise him. They then went door to door in our apartment explaining the do's and the dont's and they fumigated our entire building. He was supposedly quarantined (at home), but my wife saw him walking around the building, which resulted in a call to the corporation who sent a team back to his house and educated this fool on the do's and dont's again. The building security informed yesterday that he has gone to the temple for Sivaratri I called the swine flu hotline myself and let them know that this imbecile is going to public places, not sure what happened after that.

The vaccine recommended by WHO last MARCH based on the data from Australia contained 3 strains of Virus. Just prior to production run, WHO found out that one strain had mutated. But GSK refused to stop the process and re start it with right strain. And now we see the vaccine not working as the strain is not in it.

[nawabs]

Over 100 swine flu cases in Lucknow

http://www.thehindu.com/sci-tech/health ... yndication

[sooraj]

This swine flu is going to be a big problem for NDA govt

[Singha]

they need to ensure both the medicine and vaccine is over produced and stocked in every district and taluk of the country and freely available.
if it subsides some surplus may be sold to other countries, they typically have a shelf life.

that will curb the panic, knowing stuff is available COTS.

right now, one will have to slog to get the meds.

FCI maintains a food surplus of millions of tons for the chance of drought, china maintains a stock of pork meat as national reserve, some do for oil, we should do it for medicines and vaccines...