Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 2010)

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RoyG
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RoyG » 09 Oct 2011 19:08

^^Neshant, is there any particular reason why you haven't invested in silver?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 09 Oct 2011 20:18

>> Is there or is there not a recovery?

Depends on how one defines 'recovery'. No? The same set of arguments recycling over and over gets tiresome, perhaps. Need to move the gramaphone needle.

As for nominal GDP showing higher figs now than in 2007, I'd take such gubmint stats with overdoses of salt n pepper. The state has every incentive to shanghai-stat its way around this crisis. E.g., the BLS figs on unemployment are a joke. Nobody really denies it anymore, not even the BLS. let assets be marked to market value and then we'll see whether GDP really grew or not since 2007. The bubbliness of high finance and the mark-to-fantasy rules that have now become a permanent fixture in the emerged TFTA world do not warrant unbirdled optimism. Cautious optimism, perhaps. Who knows, tomorrow is another day.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 10 Oct 2011 01:36

Depends on how one defines 'recovery'. No? The same set of arguments recycling over and over gets


There aren't 50 different versions of the word recovery.

Either the country is growing in overall prosperity or it isn't.

Bernanke must love ambiguous definitions as it allows him to classify financial crooks offloading their losses onto suckers as recovery.

As for the same set of arguments, yes I will keep cycling them. I'm not a goal post shifter which would surely be the end result of having different versions of the word recovery to suit the occassion.

Is there or is there not recovery? The answer cannot be mutually inclusive.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 10 Oct 2011 01:57

An interesting theory. The scenario could unfold if banks go bust and holding digital dollars become a liability. Your digital dollars will be tied up in the FDIC merry-go-round (which is already broke) and you'll be waiting a long time before you can access it - if ever!

In such a scenario, physical cash would be king. I'm sure there could be other scenarios as well.

Have your finger on the trigger just in case.

Not sure if this has been brought up in the past, but does anyone think it could be a possibility that physical cash (ie. $20 bills and $100 bills) could one day decouple from the USD index?

In the past (Weimar, Zimbabwe, etc) when the money supply was increased there were physical notes printed to represent every dollar created. Not so anymore. The Fed can create money and never have to fire up the presses. I can see a time when Physical paper is scarce even when the USD crashes. Gold could easily skyrocket on the open market, lets say $20,000/ozt yet trade for $5000 Physical USD.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 10 Oct 2011 02:49

RoyG wrote:^^Neshant, is there any particular reason why you haven't invested in silver?


There is this 'law' where bad money pushes out good. That is if most people had the choice of spending a gold coin vs paper currency at a store, they'd spend the latter. Its usually the case that bad money goes into circulation and people hang onto the good money for the long term.

Central banks hold physical gold. They don't part with it easily regardless of price fluctuations. That tells me its the good money. The bad money is what they circulate. I'm just copying what they are doing by also hanging on to physical gold.

I don't see them holding silver. So I'm not sure if I should.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby ramana » 10 Oct 2011 03:44

May be will drop in during December break.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Oct 2011 03:53

skumar wrote:Most of the current US growth is based on debt. The economic output net debt would be very low if not negative. The real problem is that no country can maintain an abnormally high standard of living in this porous interlinked world through fair means, certainly not a country that promotes democracy and the free market. What we are seeing is the partial leveling of standards of living that would be more in line with the rest of the world. The US has advantages - higher per capita natural resources, a lead in many fields where it can continue to profit, a benign (?) hegemony maintained through its 100s of military bases in distant lands. But other than its natural resources, the rest are not permanent advantages. The US is also rapidly losing the post WW2 goodwill capital and this will have economic consequences.


If so much was debt fueled when the crash came and debt was cut of the GDP should have cratered, similar to Great Depression. It did not. Even today over 90% of mortgages are being paid and people are staying solvent if a bit distressed.

Yes there will be a lot of catch up by China/India, etc, but the actual GDP/Debt numbers are not quite as bad as the D&G types would have you believe.

WRT the post WW2 capital, If the USA withdrew from all its foreign bases and cut military to 2% of GDP, it would be solvent and pay off all the debt in 15 years. The main problem is a refusal to pay to keep the government solvent. 2-3% of GDP in taxes would fix everything, including healthcare, SS & the deficit. But people won't pay.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby sivab » 10 Oct 2011 04:27

^^^ This picture is from official fed reserve data, GDP is blue & US public+private debt in red. Notice the debt trend line breaking away ~1985 relative to GDP & debt growth has now stalled since 2008. How long do you think this debt growth will be sustainable relative to GDP?

Image

here is the link for graph data

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=2Fu

GDP is made of public & private components. So it is only fair to compare GDP to total public+private debt. As you can see, despite enormous increase in public debt since 2008, total debt has stalled. i.e private sector is deleveraging which is the cause of current economic mess. If total debt were to fall we may see deflation/depression.

Theo_Fidel

Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Theo_Fidel » 10 Oct 2011 04:47

Siva,

Thanx for the chart. It does illustrate my point.

Look carefully. The growth of Debt has plateaued. Yet the absolute GDP number has not cratered. Everyone thought it would absolutely crater but it did not. Most people in Massaland are bit puzzled by this. Yes the stimulus helped and the Federal deficit is increasing but the key thing is the USA economy continues to 'produce' tremendous amounts of wealth. The question of course is where is it going? Mostly to the rich it now seems.

Its been going on for almost 4 years now. It appears this may be relatively sustainable. As interests rates continue to crater, the debt is getting easier to deal with. The only one that is a question mark is federal debt. But that is a function of refusal to pay taxes than any structural problem.

The other thing to note is that an enormous component of that debt is home mortgages at about $12 Trillion while the total residential value is about $25 Trillion. So the vast majority of houses are still well above water. This debt slowly declining now for 4+ years.

I'll say it again the economy has been cut off from debt for some time now and it continues to remain productive.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 10 Oct 2011 04:54

Neshant wrote:
Depends on how one defines 'recovery'. No? The same set of arguments recycling over and over gets


There aren't 50 different versions of the word recovery.

Either the country is growing in overall prosperity or it isn't.

Bernanke must love ambiguous definitions as it allows him to classify financial crooks offloading their losses onto suckers as recovery.

As for the same set of arguments, yes I will keep cycling them. I'm not a goal post shifter which would surely be the end result of having different versions of the word recovery to suit the occassion.

Is there or is there not recovery? The answer cannot be mutually inclusive.


Ever tried asking paki RAPE if their 'country is prospering or not'? They'll say it is. GDP is growing, no? So what if inequality is growing, they're on the right side of the inequality, after all.

Similarly, if you ask folks who're able (everybody's willing but not everybody's able) to benefit from the current crisis, they'll say 'sure, things aren't so bad. There's some signs of recovery' where by recovery they may mean wall street as opposed to main street (to use a crude syllogism).

So yes, it matters who you ask if there's a recovery. The majority of khanistanis I daresay are not seeing or feeling any recovery anytime soon. Trickle downs etc from the top hv almost but dried up. Job creation, capital formation, growth perceptions, regulatory and tax burdens etc all right now favor investing outside TFTA lands for now. Sure, tide may change tomorrow, who knows. Its another day, after all. But its unlikely. The debt burden (pvt + public) is high and demands servicing. Heavenly mercy has kept interest rates low and lower, so no problemo for now. But even with these rates, not all debt out there can or will be repaid. For instance if oiroland craters, then US banks holding EU debt get burned somewhat with ripple effects down the line. So someone somewhere has to take a hit. How that process of distributing pain and gain works itself out in the land of plenty, liberty, democracy, bravery, milk and honey is the story of our times.... Only.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 10 Oct 2011 05:30

[urlhttp://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-07/italy-credit-ratings-lowered-to-a-by-fitch-on-euro-zone-crisis-concern.html]Spain, Italy Credit Ratings Lowered by Fitch as Europe Debt Crisis Worsens[/url]

Spain and Italy, the euro region’s fourth- and third-largest economies, were downgraded by Fitch Ratings on concern they will struggle to improve their finances as Europe’s debt crisis intensifies.

Spain had its foreign and local currency long-term issuer default ratings cut to AA- from AA+, while Italy had the same set of ratings to A+ from AA-, the company said in statements today. The outlook for both countries is negative. Fitch also maintained Portugal’s rating at BBB-, saying it would complete a review of that ranking in the fourth quarter.

The downgrades reflect “the intensification of the euro zone crisis,” which “constitutes a significant financial and economic shock,” Fitch said, citing risks to Spain’s “fiscal- consolidation” efforts. “A credible and comprehensive solution to the crisis is politically and technically complex and will take time to put in place and to earn the trust of investors.”

Fitch’s cut of Italy was its first since October 2006. It follows downgrades of Italy by Moody’s Investors Service on Oct. 4 and Standard & Poor’s on Sept. 19, which both cited concerns that the country’s weak economic growth means it will struggle to reduce Europe’s second-largest debt, at about 120 percent of gross domestic product.

Spain’s rating, which was AAA until 2010, has now been lowered twice by Fitch as the deepest austerity measures in three decades fail to convince investors the nation can stem the surge in its debt burden. Moody’s also warned “all but the strongest euro-area sovereigns” are likely to see further downgrades, when it cut Italy’s rating for the first time in almost two decades.


These jokers are more creditworthy than Aamchi Yindia at BBB-. And we're supposed to swallow that with a straight face. Yeah. What can't go on forever, won't. This charade is one such example. Hmmmph.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby sivab » 10 Oct 2011 07:21

Theo: IMO, its too early to say one way or other. An insolvency problem has been masked and the can has been kicked down the road. It may take a decade or more to know actual impact. Japan is the closest example and their economy has not grown much for last two decades. There are significant differences from Japan as well. US economy may not crater, at the same time it may not grow enough to absorb labor force growth. This is an uncharted territory for US and will take decades to unravel.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby skumar » 10 Oct 2011 08:45

Theo_Fidel wrote:If so much was debt fueled when the crash came and debt was cut of the GDP should have cratered, similar to Great Depression. It did not. Even today over 90% of mortgages are being paid and people are staying solvent if a bit distressed.

Yes there will be a lot of catch up by China/India, etc, but the actual GDP/Debt numbers are not quite as bad as the D&G types would have you believe.

WRT the post WW2 capital, If the USA withdrew from all its foreign bases and cut military to 2% of GDP, it would be solvent and pay off all the debt in 15 years. The main problem is a refusal to pay to keep the government solvent. 2-3% of GDP in taxes would fix everything, including healthcare, SS & the deficit. But people won't pay.

A mortgage delinquency rate of around 10%, as you yourself mention, is a symptom of how widespread the disease is. What would be the equivalent delinquency rate for housing loans in India? There are millions of housing units in foreclosed unsold and unsellable inventory with the banks, which would have to be written off. In a true "free market" system, the banks would have to take this hit since they made the wrong loans which would force the bankruptcy of the nation’s largest banks but they are managing to get the money from the government and ultimately the masses. Money that should be going to SS, healthcare and infrastructure is landing up with the banks. The next CDOs may be student loans where delinquencies are rising. This generation of students will have less to spend when they start earning since they would be paying off to the banks.

Will 2%-3% of GDP in taxes solve the problem? And even 2%-3% of GDP will mean 15%-25% in more taxes! The rich certainly are not paying and loopholes allow companies like GE to pay almost zero taxes. The special interest groups of the rich and the corporates would rather fund money to show and promote why SS and healthcare should be cut. Meanwhile, most of the revenues of cities are going towards paying benefits and pensions while services are being cut. The problem at the local level is more compounded since they cannot print money like the federal government.
Last edited by skumar on 10 Oct 2011 10:47, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 10 Oct 2011 09:35

Joke doing the rouinds on email...

"10 years ago, America had Jhonny Cash, Steve Jobs and Bob Hope. Today America has no cash, no jobs and no hope...."

OK, ok, its a joke, allegedly. So don't jump on moi for it. Having said that, let us all unite in prayer and fervently wish that the US pulls out of this 'recesion' somehow and chugs along. For all our sakes, we could do with the US not cratering in the years ahead. The resultant disruption is likely to distinctly impoverish many many lives around the world and ours are unlikely to be untouched either.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby VikramS » 10 Oct 2011 10:01

Neshant:

You are looking for a straight answer for a very vaguely defined question.

If you look at the GDP growth in Asia, of course there has been a HUGE recovery. India and China are battling the fire of inflation. If you look at the profits of US multinationals (ex Fins) there are huge. They have a huge cash hoard, their financing costs are next to zero and they do not know what to do with the cash they have. If you are looking at the US job market, but for a few pockets it is not so good. However if you focus on the college educated, it is not that bad either.

The examples of cloud computing and the massive growth of the addressable market was in the context of the profits of US corporations. Yes cloud computing is making a huge difference in the way businesses operate and that will eventually flow into the bottom line of those firms as higher productivity.

And you do not need nuclear fusion to power recovery. What new invention has happened in India and China for those economies to double in a decade or less?

There is something called a business cycle and those cycles come and go. You can not get over that no new industry meme, when others have pointed out that the last boom actually let to the destruction of a lot of jobs due to increase in productivity. The entire basis of your hypothesis has such nebulous foundations, so stop trying to fit others' perspective into your myopic world. You are looking for a black and white answer to a problem where there are many dimensions. While the core of your outlook, the big bad debt problem, is right on the money, you can ignore the the wiggles and turn at your own peril.

BTW, I made those comments about equity in trouble after the commodity route in early May. There was no after-the-fact stuff there (unlike someone here who bought puts on Gold).

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 10 Oct 2011 11:52

For the US economy, the decade of 1990s (i.e. the period from 1990-99) was considered the best period as far as economy was considered. The unemployment percentage fell to 4.2 in 1999 at the height of dot-com boom. The average unemployment figure for this decade was about 5.6-5.7%.
This period was rivaled only by the decade after WWII, i.e. 1945-1954, with the unemployment percentage falling to 2.9% in the year 1953. In the 1990s the wages were rising and the generally the bull run was secular by and large. 1990s was also the decade that US actually managed to balance its budget. When Bill Clinton actually left US presidency, he left George Bush a surplus.
Source of the above Facts - Annual average unemployment rate, civilian labor force 16 years and over (percent)

Unemployment of US as of today, i.e. Sept-2011, is 9.1%. Assuming that the target unemployment rate to be the average unemployment rate of 1990s, i.e. 5.6%, then we see that the unemployment has to fall only by approximately 4%. Can it be done by 2012, possibly yes. After all Bill Clinton took over in 1992 and even till his 1996 the unemployment rate was 5.4%. But offcourse when Bill Clinton took over the unemployment rate was 7.5%, the highest for the decade of 1990s. So we should not discount the ability of US to bounce back and with it bring cheer to the global economy with it.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby skumar » 10 Oct 2011 15:23

Talking Points for the "Occupy Wall Street" Protesters - John P. Hussman
http://www.hussman.net/wmc/wmc111010.htm

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 11 Oct 2011 01:03

ranjbe wrote:As a rebuttal to the G & D view about Western economies, and the rise of the emerging economies, a prespective on how much richer the West still is:
The US has 10 times more affluent households than China or India, research shows, undermining arguments the global economy can be sustained by consumption in emerging markets.
While the number of affluent households in China and India is 3 million each, the US has more than 31 million, the survey shows
The incidence of affluence in the US is 27 per cent, the study shows, 20 per cent in Canada and 11 per cent in the UK, while the proportion in China is 0.75 per cent. India’s affluent make up 1.25 percent of the country’s population.


http://www.indianexpress.com/news/us-affluent-classes-dwarf-asian-nations-study/857502/0

I told a western money manager who trades in PRC, US and India that in the future India will have a affluent pop of 300 million with atleast $1M in asset. He was speachless.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 11 Oct 2011 05:43

Acharya wrote:I told a western money manager who trades in PRC, US and India that in the future India will have a affluent pop of 300 million with atleast $1M in asset. He was speachless.


Sure. Why not? Quite possible. When the USD debases itself enough to be on par with the 2011 INR, anything will be possible....

BTW, making the all-knowing all-seeing alpha-n-omega western money-managers speechless even if only for a few seconds....priceless.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby SwamyG » 11 Oct 2011 07:36

The news report about how there are more affluent people in USA than China and India is like the news "Dog bites Man". Big deal. We already knew that, did we not? What did everybody think, India would overtake USA? For all practical purposes, India started growing after 1991. 1947-1991 period was a period of stabilization. America growth trajectory was more noticeable in the 20th century. So America took almost a century to strengthen its grip on the World economy. China began its march in the 80s.

It is news only when "Man bites a dog". Right now America is assuaging itself of its uno numero position. I guess the next news would be America has more White population than China and India.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby gakakkad » 11 Oct 2011 07:48

the affluent people in India is greatly under-estimated..the criteria use above networth > 1million dollars or disposable income > 100k dollars.. as per that stats only 300k Indians have disposable wealth > 100k.. nonsense.. even in 2nd tier cities like surat or vadodara or pune there must be 10s of thousand people with bank balance more than 45 lakh INR... Not to mention the huge number of rich farmers..In ahmedabad , any house greater than 4000 squarefeet will be costlier than 3-4 crore INR OR 1 MILLION DOLLARS...there must be 10s of thousand such houses...It may well be possible that the number of millionaires in India may exceed that of US in a decade or so..though the 300 million millionaires is ...well from the musharraf... :)

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 11 Oct 2011 08:01

You are looking for a straight answer for a very vaguely defined question.


Its a simple question that does not require any fudging of the answer.

The typical banker speak is to weave a long story around a simple issue or inject fancy terminology to baffle or confuse - often themselves in the process. I'm too awake to fall for such things.

Whenever i find long winded explainations are given to explain what should be obvious (i.e. what is powering an economy), i know the reasoning is nonsensical. By its very nature, what powers a recovery should be self-evident. One just has to look at what productive industry is creating well paying jobs. Right now nothing is powering a recovery and those who claimed green shoots just months ago are increasingly edging away from their own proclaimations and singing a different tune.

There's no point in engaging in any discussion if the other party does not even know what its claims are. It becomes an exercise in smoke & mirrors. May as well be listening to Bernanke who gives his 'analysis' of the situation well after everyone already knows the situation.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 11 Oct 2011 08:11

Acharya wrote:I told a western money manager who trades in PRC, US and India that in the future India will have a affluent pop of 300 million with atleast $1M in asset. He was speachless.


Your numbers are off by a factor of 10 perhaps. 300 million ? The US has about 310 million people and only about 7% or something are millionaries. So how in the world can India have 300 million millionaires. How far into the future are you talking because it won't be in my lifetime - not in today's purchasing power anyway.

One great thing about India which I hope does not change is that it is a country of savers. A good mix of fiat & gold is saved. It drains the world of gold at a steady pace and it all comes to rest in private hoards within the country - well distributed among the people instead of in the hands of beaurocrats & banking crooks where it would surely get ripped off.

So long as India does not get caught up in worthless paper games promoted by banking fools designed to rip off the ignorant, the wealth of the nation will continue to build.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby skumar » 11 Oct 2011 08:25

gakakkad wrote:<snip>as per that stats only 300k Indians have disposable wealth > 100k.. nonsense.. even in 2nd tier cities like surat or vadodara or pune there must be 10s of thousand people with bank balance more than 45 lakh INR<snip>

Linked report says 3 million, i.e. 3000k, not 300k.

What is nonsensical is comparing affluence across the world in $. As the authors would no doubt know, a person with $100k disposable income in India is a LOT more affluent than a person with $100k disposable income in the US.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 11 Oct 2011 08:33

^ if they value the current market prices of agri-lands only the Godavari districts will have 300K Indians with >$100k networth.

That is why Acharya garu is right in his claim that in few years (once the govt vluation reflects market value like in the USA) india will have 300 million (that is right) US$ millionnaires.

Tab aayegaa tamasha

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Singha » 11 Oct 2011 08:34

have they used raw $$ for this study or $$ converted to ppp values. that might be more realistic in capturing the wealth of people in other countries.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 11 Oct 2011 08:42

GD,

That would be worse. A $100k PPP would mean $30K = Rs15L. In Godavari districts 1acre agri-land is between Rs 8-100Lakhs depending on location. One can do the math

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 11 Oct 2011 10:04

written by Alan Greenspan in 1966.

he started off his life aware of the theft through fiat money by banking goons and ended his career on the other side of the fence. proof that money, fame & power can corrupt even those who are awake/aware.
-----
From GOLD AND ECONOMIC FREEDOM by Alan Greenspan:

Under a gold standard, the amount of credit that an economy can support is determined by the economy’s tangible assets, since every credit instrument is ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the government’s promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus, government deficit spending under a gold standard is severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds which — through a complex series of steps — the banks accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus the earnings saved by the productive members of the society lose value in terms of goods. When the economy’s books are finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government bonds financed by bank credit expansion.

In the absence of the gold standard, there is no way to protect savings from confiscation through inflation.There is no safe store of value. If there were, the government would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank deposits would lose their purchasing power and government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.

This is the shabby secret of the welfare statists’ tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth. Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands as a protector of property rights. If one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the statists’ antagonism toward the gold standard.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 11 Oct 2011 10:12

An excellent set of interviews with Catherine Austin Fitts.

I've only had time to watch the first one but she's sounding like me... which can only mean she knows what she's talking about. Here's part 1 to get you started, the subsequent parts can be found on the link below :



http://www.silverbearcafe.com/private/1 ... oting.html

svinayak
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 11 Oct 2011 10:44

Neshant wrote:
Acharya wrote:I told a western money manager who trades in PRC, US and India that in the future India will have a affluent pop of 300 million with atleast $1M in asset. He was speachless.


Your numbers are off by a factor of 10 perhaps. 300 million ? The US has about 310 million people and only about 7% or something are millionaries. So how in the world can India have 300 million millionaires. How far into the future are you talking because it won't be in my lifetime - not in today's purchasing power anyway.

It is all about savings. With a pop of around 1.7 billion take just 100 million and still it is big

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 11 Oct 2011 10:45

Hari Seldon wrote:
Sure. Why not? Quite possible. When the USD debases itself enough to be on par with the 2011 INR, anything will be possible....

BTW, making the all-knowing all-seeing alpha-n-omega western money-managers speechless even if only for a few seconds....priceless.

Can you send me email.
Need to discuss

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby sumishi » 11 Oct 2011 13:12

Well, is he beginning to see the truth, or is he forced to see the truth?
Panic of the Plutocrats : Paul Krugman, NYT, October 9, 2011

It remains to be seen whether the Occupy Wall Street protests will change America’s direction. Yet the protests have already elicited a remarkably hysterical reaction from Wall Street, the super-rich in general, and politicians and pundits who reliably serve the interests of the wealthiest hundredth of a percent.

And this reaction tells you something important — namely, that the extremists threatening American values are what F.D.R. called “economic royalists,” not the people camping in Zuccotti Park.

Consider first how Republican politicians have portrayed the modest-sized if growing demonstrations, which have involved some confrontations with the police — confrontations that seem to have involved a lot of police overreaction — but nothing one could call a riot. And there has in fact been nothing so far to match the behavior of Tea Party crowds in the summer of 2009.

Nonetheless, Eric Cantor, the House majority leader, has denounced “mobs” and “the pitting of Americans against Americans.” The G.O.P. presidential candidates have weighed in, with Mitt Romney accusing the protesters of waging “class warfare,” while Herman Cain calls them “anti-American.” My favorite, however, is Senator Rand Paul, who for some reason worries that the protesters will start seizing iPads, because they believe rich people don’t deserve to have them.

Michael Bloomberg, New York’s mayor and a financial-industry titan in his own right, was a bit more moderate, but still accused the protesters of trying to “take the jobs away from people working in this city,” a statement that bears no resemblance to the movement’s actual goals.

And if you were listening to talking heads on CNBC, you learned that the protesters “let their freak flags fly,” and are “aligned with Lenin.”

The way to understand all of this is to realize that it’s part of a broader syndrome, in which wealthy Americans who benefit hugely from a system rigged in their favor react with hysteria to anyone who points out just how rigged the system is.

Last year, you may recall, a number of financial-industry barons went wild over very mild criticism from President Obama. They denounced Mr. Obama as being almost a socialist for endorsing the so-called Volcker rule, which would simply prohibit banks backed by federal guarantees from engaging in risky speculation. And as for their reaction to proposals to close a loophole that lets some of them pay remarkably low taxes — well, Stephen Schwarzman, chairman of the Blackstone Group, compared it to Hitler’s invasion of Poland.

And then there’s the campaign of character assassination against Elizabeth Warren, the financial reformer now running for the Senate in Massachusetts. Not long ago a YouTube video of Ms. Warren making an eloquent, down-to-earth case for taxes on the rich went viral. Nothing about what she said was radical — it was no more than a modern riff on Oliver Wendell Holmes’s famous dictum that “Taxes are what we pay for civilized society.”

But listening to the reliable defenders of the wealthy, you’d think that Ms. Warren was the second coming of Leon Trotsky. George Will declared that she has a “collectivist agenda,” that she believes that “individualism is a chimera.” And Rush Limbaugh called her “a parasite who hates her host. Willing to destroy the host while she sucks the life out of it.”

What’s going on here? The answer, surely, is that Wall Street’s Masters of the Universe realize, deep down, how morally indefensible their position is. They’re not John Galt; they’re not even Steve Jobs. They’re people who got rich by peddling complex financial schemes that, far from delivering clear benefits to the American people, helped push us into a crisis whose aftereffects continue to blight the lives of tens of millions of their fellow citizens.

Yet they have paid no price. Their institutions were bailed out by taxpayers, with few strings attached. They continue to benefit from explicit and implicit federal guarantees — basically, they’re still in a game of heads they win, tails taxpayers lose. And they benefit from tax loopholes that in many cases have people with multimillion-dollar incomes paying lower rates than middle-class families.

This special treatment can’t bear close scrutiny — and therefore, as they see it, there must be no close scrutiny. Anyone who points out the obvious, no matter how calmly and moderately, must be demonized and driven from the stage. In fact, the more reasonable and moderate a critic sounds, the more urgently he or she must be demonized, hence the frantic sliming of Elizabeth Warren.

So who’s really being un-American here? Not the protesters, who are simply trying to get their voices heard. No, the real extremists here are America’s oligarchs, who want to suppress any criticism of the sources of their wealth.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 11 Oct 2011 13:34

an interesting rant i thought i'd share :

You're dead on. I graduated not so long ago, and in my classes (Vancouver, Canada) it was quite honestly a 60% ratio of Chinese & Arabs students with the remaining 40% represented by domestic Canadian students.

This is first class wealth transfer economics - if there ever was such a thing.
It's brilliant, and here's how it works:

-Chinese government sponsers students to study abroad in serious fields at Western Universities. (you'll never meet a Chinese student studying political science or liberal arts).

- Students graduate and get jobs in the Western nations who desperately need their skilled labour.

- Students usually can't bring their entire families in from China - so instead they get employment in Canada/US/Europe and send the majority of their paycheques back home to China/India/ect.

- The money that would usually flow throughout the domestic western economy now goes directly to China. It doesn't get spent at a US Resteraunt, it doesn't buy a Car domestically, it doesn't find its way into a US bank.

- As this process repeats, the Chinese/Indian/ect governments sponser more of their students to do the same. Domestic western schools gladly accept the students because they get considerably higher tuition from them.

-As the foreign students continue to flow in, domestic Universities adjust their budgets to allow for the increased income per foreign student. This makes the process very difficult to reverse, because now that the budgets have been modified to reflect a higher income per student ratio, more domestic students would be required to fill the tuition void of just one foreign government sponsered student. And, seats at institutions is already very limited.

-As the number of foreign students increases, the number of skilled domestic students drops off. This in turn makes the domestic economies more and more dependant on a population of immigrants whose true allegiance lies abroad.


If you don't think this is happening, book a flight to Vancouver, Canada. What was once a booming city of anglo-saxon white Canadians has become over-run with highly skilled, highly educated Chinese, Korean and Indian immigrants. These people, God love'm, don't share western values, religions, or ideologies. Their social networks are limited to their own race which has created a self sustaining economy-within an- economy. In the end, the entire system will fail because the western population as a whole has forgotten about the need to be competitive. Their is a whole world out there litterally dieing to have what we take for granted on a daily basis.

These Foreign students are raised on the idea that education is the key to life. They go to school 6 days a week for 10 hours + per day. They have a work ethic and drive that surpasses the average Canadian/European/American by a factor of ten fold. They speak many different langauges, have a unique world view, and are well supported with business contacts back home. Unless we get our acts together - they are going to take from us, what we, long ago, took from them.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby sumishi » 11 Oct 2011 13:47

^^ :eek: , :mrgreen: and :twisted:

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby vishvak » 11 Oct 2011 14:07

This is how I read it:

quote="Neshant":

I graduated not so long ago..
(financed well in the same college/univ.?)

-Chinese government sponsers students to study abroad
(one-way wealth transfer here)
- Students graduate and get jobs in the Western nations who desperately need their skilled labour.

- Students usually can't bring their entire families in from China - ...
(restrictions on educated people?)
..because they get considerably higher tuition from them.

-As the foreign students continue to flow in, domestic Universities adjust their budgets to allow...

whose true allegiance lies abroad. (Is that a direct accusation?)

If you don't think this is happening, book a flight to Vancouver, Canada. What was once a booming city of anglo-saxon white Canadians(by law?) has become over-run with highly skilled, highly educated(trying to belittle behavior of educated people with words like 'over-run'?) Chinese, Korean and Indian immigrants. These people, God love'm, don't share western values, religions, or ideologies.(fangs are out!) :evil:

Unless we get our acts together - they are going to take from us, what we, long ago, took from them.

/quote]
Somehow the guy who talk so much did not care to elaborate the last line.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Singha » 11 Oct 2011 14:46

>> Unless we get our acts together - they are going to take from us, what we, long ago, took from them.

:mrgreen: :((

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby gakakkad » 11 Oct 2011 16:47

nice ... from college humour


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby SwamyG » 11 Oct 2011 19:39

Zakaria: Why 'Mission Impossible' premieres in India

Meanwhile, Indians, for example, are moving in exactly the opposite direction. Consumer spending is up in general, but on entertainment, it is up 14% in 2010. Emerging economies, including China and India, account for half of global output, but only a third of global consumption. This is changing, and it's not just the movie companies that have figured this out.


So there is a big shift at work here - a picture of the two-speed world. Consumers in developing markets are growing in importance in the eyes of the biggest global companies. Meanwhile, here in America, consumer demand is stagnant.{there goes the argument of America has more gazillionaires than China and India}

Could things change? Yes, but only if we get growth going again in the West and, particularly, in America. U.S. companies are currently holding more than $2 trillion in cash reserves. {trickle down economics, yeah right}I saw a chart this week that illustrated in the starkest possible way why this needs to change. Take a look at the chart in the video above. It plots corporate spending along with employment numbers. The correlation is unmistakable and tight. As corporate investment goes up, employment goes up.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby ramana » 11 Oct 2011 20:18

The reality is end of Cold War, Deng's economic reforms in PRC, PVNR liberalizing India have unleashed more than 2B new consumers in the past 30 years.

This wave has swamped all the old economies. All else is an artifact of this wave.
Looking back Communism and Socialism were a self induced morotarium of those three countries to withdraw from economic activity. What these three did post WWII was let the West grow unfettered and put their own populations thru misery.
Now the gloves are off and we see the impact globally.


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