Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 2010)

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Satya_anveshi
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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Satya_anveshi » 01 Dec 2011 22:53

Fed saves Europe's banks as ECB stands pat By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard

The interwoven banking and sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone has become so dangerous for the world that the US Federal Reserve has been forced to take emergency action, acting as global lender of last resort{you wish?} to shore up Europe's banking system.

The move came once it was clear that Europe's prostrate banks would struggle to roll over $2 trillion (£1.3 trillion) of debts denominated in dollars. Data from ratings agency Fitch shows that US money markets have slashed funding for French banks by 69pc and German banks by 50pc.

Strains have been ratcheting up over the past two weeks. European banks are mostly shut out of the dollar market, or only able to raise money for a week at a time.

The joint offer of cut-rate currency swap lines by the central banks of the US, Britain, Japan, Canada, Switzerland and the ECB preserves the polite fiction that this was to "ease strains in financial markets and thereby mitigate the effects of such strains on the supply of credit", but this was a Fed action to provide cheap dollar funding and head off a lethal crunch in Europe.

China took its own precautions – perhaps in concert – cutting its reserve ratio for the first time in three years to boost liquidity.

The drama always comes back to the ECB. Will it blink?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby ramana » 02 Dec 2011 03:32


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 02 Dec 2011 04:40

I didn't purchase any clothes "made in china" this year for the holidays. They were made in Vietnam, India and the Philippines. I wish I could buy more stuff made in the United States.
Reply


It is just a trickle now.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 02 Dec 2011 06:07

US Will Be Italy Unless We Cut Deficit

US Will Be Italy Unless We Cut Deficit: Ex-NEC Director
Published: Thursday, 1 Dec 2011 | 12:47 PM ET Text Size
By: Margo D. Beller

The U.S. is "Italy lagged about three years" unless the deficit is closed by 2013, former National Economic Council director Lawrence Lindsey told CNBC Thursday.
"We're running right now about a 10 percent of (gross domestic product) budget deficit, maybe as low as 9 percent," said the CEO of Lindsey Group. "That's on the order of what Greeece is running. The Italian budget deficit is much smaller than ours."

He added: "We have a little bit more time to deal with it because our debt to GDP ratio isn't as high. But the fundamentals of our budget are at least as bad as any of these European countries."

Lindsey said there is a "window in the first half of 2013 to have very, very signficant budget reductions. If we don’t take advantage of that window, I think you will see us where Europe is today."

Lindsey was not impressed by Wednesday's action by the European Central Bank , the U.S. Federal Reserve , the Bank of England, and the central banks of Canada, Japan, and Switzlerland to make it easier for banks to access dollars.



"The action was necessary, but it was hardly sufficient," he said. "That is an idea that’s been talked about for months and months. It's a natural lever for them to pull."

In the same interview, Roger Altman, chairman of Evercore Partners and a former deputy Treasury secretary, said the central banks' action was more symbol than substance.

"The sight of coordinated central bank action signifies the central banking system is going to make every effort to stand behind the global banking system and in particular the European banking system," Altman said. "This action would not have taken place had the central banks not been concerned about liquidity issues in the European banking system."

He said the stock markets' bullish reaction to the news Wednesday "would seem more euphoric than the realities, but the markets were looking for some ray of light and the banks provided it."

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Pranav » 02 Dec 2011 11:19

Looks like our indefatigable friend Neshant is missing. Anyway, the discussion continues - viewtopic.php?p=1204846#p1204846

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 02 Dec 2011 11:43

Now suppose Dick is a bank who lends out a fraction of what he receives as a deposit, repeatedly, until the total amount lent by Dick is 900% of the original deposit


How does he lend out gold coins he does not have.

Is he is running a counterfeiting operation?

You can't repeatedly lend out gold unless you are breaking into the borrowers house at night and stealing it.

You're getting dangerously close to exposing what central banking, banking cronies & fiat money is all about.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Pranav » 02 Dec 2011 12:12

Neshant wrote:
Now suppose Dick is a bank who lends out a fraction of what he receives as a deposit, repeatedly, until the total amount lent by Dick is 900% of the original deposit


How does he lend out gold coins he does not have.

Is he is running a counterfeiting operation?

You can't repeatedly lend out gold unless you are breaking into the borrowers house at night and stealing it.

You're getting dangerously close to exposing what central banking, banking cronies & fiat money is all about.


Reply at viewtopic.php?p=1204881#p1204881 .

On Ramana's request I am keeping my replies in that thread.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 05 Dec 2011 06:42

Kyle Bass Letter to Investors

(this guy was ahead of the curve on the PIGS having shorted the living daylights out of them well before they ever shot to fame)

Its worth the read so read it.

http://www.scribd.com/doc/74387167/Haym ... s-Nov-2011
Last edited by Neshant on 05 Dec 2011 06:45, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 05 Dec 2011 06:44

IMF broken down by Ann Barnhardt

Very strong words spoken by this lady. Hopefully the BABUZ who lead India's foreign policy are aware.

Gotta love them babuz.

http://www.financialsense.com/financial ... l-collapse

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 05 Dec 2011 17:54

India may face its worst financial crisis in decades as rupee retreats --- ToI Dated 5-Dec-2011

20 years after 1991, we are all set to have an encore. The same situation exists now as it used to exist then.
India may face its worst financial crisis in decades if it fails to stem a slide in the rupee, leaving the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) with a difficult choice over how to make best use of its limited reserves to maintain the confidence of foreign investors.

If the RBI is too timid, it risks adding fuel to the ire of portfolio investors, which India relies on heavily to cover its imports tab.

Aggressive intervention would leave the central bank open to criticism that it is wasting precious money on problems that are beyond India's control anyhow, noteably Europe's debt crisis.


And just how much reserves does India have
The RBI, the last line of defence against a currency meltdown, has cautiously begun to support the rupee, but its firepower may be more limited than its $300 billion in reserves would suggest.
....
....
India's current account deficit swelled to $14.1 billion in its fiscal first quarter, nearly triple the previous quarter's tally. The full-year gap is expected to be around $54 billion.
....
....
If the RBI decides to step in more aggressively, its manoeuvring room is more limited than its reserves tally would suggest.
After covering the current account deficit, short-term debt and foreign investment flows, there would be less than $20 billion left over.


And why is this worry more than just academic
Worries about India have spiked in tandem with concern over Europe. UBS hosted a client conference call about India on November 29, which it announced with an email headlined "India explodes." Deutsche Bank sent out a report on November 24 entitled, "India's time of reckoning."

"Suddenly everything seems to be coming to a head in India," UBS wrote. "Growth is disappearing, the rupee is in disarray, and inflation is stuck at near-record levels. Investor sentiment has gone from cautious to outright scared."

The drop in portfolio inflows and the hefty current account and fiscal deficits have been a key factor behind the rupee's decline.

RBI, however, has been among the most hawkish central banks in the world, raising rates 13 times since early 2010. Normally, higher interest rates boost currencies, so the rupee's weakness is all the more significant.

The RBI appears to have intervened in mid-November to try to slow the decline. Between October 28 and November 25, reserves dropped by $16 billion to $304 billion, yet the currency still fell by 7 percent over that period.

Trading in rupee offshore forward contracts show traders are betting on the rupee declining a further 1.7 percent over the next three months, and 4.5 percent in a year.

"The biggest mistake RBI has made is that it has almost given an open invitation to speculators to short the rupee," said [economist Rajeev] Malik, who is with CLSA in Singapore.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 05 Dec 2011 20:38

Fed’s Stress Tests Won’t Fix a Flawed Financial System: View ---- Bloomberg Dated 5-Dec-2011

This is the scariest piece of news that I have come across in 2011
The Fed is subjecting the 31 largest U.S. banks to a much more daunting hypothetical future. Its stress scenario includes a 52 percent drop in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, a 21 percent decline in house prices, an unemployment rate of 13 percent and a contraction of more than 5 percent in the U.S. economy -- all consistent with the kind of disaster a disorderly sovereign default or a major bank failure in Europe could deliver.


As per today, i.e. 5-Dec-2011, The Dow jones in the past 52-week (or one year), has ranged from 10,404.49 - 12,876.00. Source is Google finance.
If this index would fall by 52% then the possible range would be 4995 - 6180. Please note that i have rounded off the decimal paces. The last time DJIA touched a range of 4995-6180 would correspond to a period of 1995-1996. That would mean that American economy would give up gains not of the entire decade by of a period of 15 years.

US Economy for 2010 was 14.5 trillion USD. Assume that this is also the figure of 2011. A 5% decline in the US Economy translates into a US Economy of 13.7 trillion USD. Or close to a trillion dollars wiped out.

This news is not scary for the figures quoted above. What does the US Fed know that we dont know?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Satya_anveshi » 05 Dec 2011 20:55

Christopher Sidor wrote:If this index would fall by 52% then the possible range would be 4995 - 6180. Please note that i have rounded off the decimal paces. The last time DJIA touched a range of 4995-6180 would correspond to a period of 1995-1996.


DJIA touched 66xx in March 2009 when liquidity came to a halt. conditions now are more grave than they were during 2008 and early 09. At that time it was primarily balancesheet crisis (of banks) and now we have global currency war dimension as well. So, not to scare folks...we are definitely in deepsheet zone (or have been for sometime).

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby sumishi » 06 Dec 2011 14:56

Weeding out corporate psychopaths: thestar.com, Nov 23 2011
[Right out of Political Ponerology -- The Scientific Study of Evil Adjusted for Political Purposes by Andrew M. Lobaczewski]

Given the state of the global economy, it might not surprise you to learn that psychopaths may be controlling the world. Not violent criminals, but corporate psychopaths who nonetheless have a genetically inherited biochemical condition that prevents them from feeling normal human empathy.

Scientific research is revealing that 21st century financial institutions with a high rate of turnover and expanding global power have become highly attractive to psychopathic individuals to enrich themselves at the expense of others, and the companies they work for.

A peer-reviewed theoretical paper titled "The Corporate Psychopaths Theory of the Global Financial Crisis" details how highly placed psychopaths in the banking sector may have nearly brought down the world economy through their own inherent inability to care about the consequences of their actions.

The author of this paper, Clive Boddy, previously of Nottingham Trent University, believes this theory would go a long way to explain how senior managers acted in ways that were disastrous for the institutions they worked for, the investors they represented and the global economy at large.

If true, this also means the astronomically expensive public bailouts will not solve the problem since many of the morally impaired individuals who caused this mess likely remain in positions of power. Worse, they may be the same people advising governments on how to resolve this crisis.

To tackle this problem, we must instead examine this rare and curious condition, and why recent corporate history may have elevated precisely the wrong type of people to positions of great power and public trust.

Unfeeling, but not insane

Psychopathy should not be confused with insanity. It is best described by Robert Hare, global expert and psychologist, as “emotional deafness” — a biochemical inability to experience normal feelings of empathy for others.

This shark-like fixation on self-interest means that psychopaths often feel a clear detachment from other people, viewing them more as sheep to be preyed upon than fellow humans to relate to. For instance, psychopaths in prison often use group therapy sessions not as a healing process, but as an opportunity to learn how to simulate normal human emotions.

Studies on twins have revealed that psychopathy shows a strong genetic signature and there remains no effective treatment. Recent research has linked the condition to physical abnormalities in the amygdala region of the brain.

Only a small subset of psychopaths become the violent criminals so often fictionalized in film. Most simply seek to blend in and conceal their difference in order to more effectively manipulate others. This frightening condition has existed throughout human history, though likely in a marginal and socially parasitic way.

While psychopaths are often portrayed by Hollywood as brilliantly clever, a hypothetical race of Hannibal Lecters would likely perish since they lack the ability to trust each other. Put another way, the human race — a relatively weak, slow, hairless tropical primate — has succeeded so spectacularly in every ecosystem on the planet not because we are so bad, but because we are so good.

Most dangerous 1 per cent

The human ability to build social capital means that people can cooperate and trust each other. We can reliably predict the behaviour of others even if we have never met them. Social capital is the glue that holds together our communities, complex societies, large institutions and the economy. The one and only superpower possessed by psychopaths is their ruthless ability to spend the social capital created by others.

Scientists believe about 1 per cent of the general population is psychopathic, meaning there are more than three million moral monsters among normal United States citizens. There is emerging evidence that this frequency increases within the upper management of modern corporations. This is not surprising since personal ruthlessness and fixation on personal power have become seen as strong assets to large publicly traded corporations (which some authors believe have also become psychopathic).

However, appearance and performance are two different things. While psychopaths are often outwardly charming and excellent self-promoters, they are also typically terrible managers, bullying co-workers and creating chaos to conceal their behaviour.

When employed in senior levels, their pathology also means they are biochemically incapable of something they are legally required to do: act in good faith on behalf of other people. The banking and corporate sector is built on the ancient principle of fiduciary duty — a legal obligation to act in the best interest of those whose money or property you are entrusted with. Asking a psychopath to do that is like recruiting a pyromaniac to be a firefighter.

The folly of mixing psychopathy and senior corporate management has been borne out by recent history. At the end of the last decade, numerous banking institutions representing hundreds of years of corporate financial stability ceased to exist within a few short months due to the reckless acts of a few individuals — none of whom has ever been charged with a crime.

And therein lies the rub. As ruthless as psychopaths are, their pathology dictates that they will ultimately act to the detriment of the organizations and investors they are paid so well to represent.

Fertile for psychopaths: New corporate culture

If this theory is correct, how did this become such a crisis in recent decades? Boddy suggests that corporations have changed from relatively stable institutions where psychopaths would have a difficult time concealing themselves, to highly fluid organizations where it is much easier for them to disappear within the chaos in their wake.

“(The) whole corporate and employment environment changed from one that would hold the Corporate Psychopath in check to one where they could flourish and advance relatively unopposed,” Boddy writes. “As evidence of this, senior level remuneration and reward started to increase more and more rapidly and beyond all proportion to shop floor incomes and a culture of greed unfettered by conscience developed. Corporate Psychopaths are ideally situated to prey on such an environment and corporate fraud, financial misrepresentation, greed and misbehaviour went through the roof, bringing down huge companies and culminating in the Global Financial Crisis that we are now in.”

Boddy is not hopeful that the current round of expensive public bailouts will solve the problem. If psychopaths have in fact installed themselves in the upper reaches of the world’s financial institutions, their genetic deficiency dictates that their greed knows no bounds. They will continue to act in anti-social, remorseless ways, amplified by their enormous corporate influence until the institutions they represent and perhaps the entire global economy collapses. Obviously, more academic research in this area is urgently needed.

Boddy concludes his recent paper with this grim prediction:

“Writing in 2005, this author . . . predicted that the rise of Corporate Psychopaths was a recipe for corporate and societal disaster. This disaster has now happened and is still happening. Across the western world, the symptoms of the financial crisis are now being treated. However, this treatment of the symptoms will have little effect because the root cause is not being addressed. The very same Corporate Psychopaths, who probably caused the crisis by their self-seeking greed and avarice, are now advising governments on how to get out of the crisis. That this involves paying themselves vast bonuses in the midst of financial hardship for many millions of others is symptomatic of the problem. Further, if (this theory is correct) then we are now far from the end of the crisis. Indeed, it is only the end of the beginning. Perhaps more than ever before, the world needs corporate leaders with a conscience . . . Measures exist to identify Corporate Psychopaths. Perhaps it is time to use them.”

Time has come for testing

Boddy’s last statement contains a kernel of hope. If our world has become chaotic due to institutionalized psychopathy, imagine how much better it could be if such dangerously impaired individuals were excluded from positions of power and influence.

Precedence exists for dealing with such situations. Randomized workplace drug testing became the norm in the 1980s. At the time, civil libertarians strongly objected on the basis that it violated personal privacy protections. However, the U.S. Supreme Court decided in 1989 that such testing was constitutional and now about 25 per cent of Fortune 500 companies routinely require their employees to submit to such tests.

Perhaps investors at major financial institutions should require that senior level managers submit to established tests to ensure they are not psychopathic. This is not an issue of civil liberties since the precedent has already been well established regarding drug impairment in the workplace. Likewise, it is not a regulatory issue since private shareholders have every right to demand that executives demonstrate they are not biochemically impaired and therefore unable to carry out their fiduciary duties on behalf of investors. If corporate boards are hiring psychopaths as executive management, they are not carrying out their due diligence and could be held legally liable for their oversight.

Companies should also consider providing employees with specific whistleblower provisions to expose potential psychopaths in the workplace. A 2010 study by Boddy showed that corporate psychopaths caused more than one quarter of all workplace bullying, though they accounted for only one per cent of the workforce.

Besides being traumatic and humiliating to other workers, this bullying is also very expensive. Boddy calculated that bullying by corporate psychopaths cost companies in the U.K. more than £3.5 billion per year in lost productivity and attrition. Extrapolating these results to the United States, these deviant individuals are responsible for more than $35 billion in direct annual losses to U.S. businesses.

Politicians, too?

And what about elected officials? There is no higher standard of trust in our society than standing for public office. Campaigning politicians are expected to submit to almost absurd levels of scrutiny about their private lives, character and personal relationships. Should not candidates begin providing voters proof that they are medically capable of acting in the interests of the public that may elect them?

The Occupy Wall Street protesters demanding an end to the reign of the “1 per cent” may have unwittingly stumbled on the crux of the issue. Science tells us that 99 per cent of humans have normal emotional function. One per cent are psychopaths. We ignore that truth at our peril.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby ramana » 06 Dec 2011 23:03

Wow! Soemthing BR had specualted on about US lawmakers!

Power to people: Outrage over Insider trading puts act on fast track

On Tuesday, the House Financial Services Committee is slated to hold a hearing on the STOCK Act - short for Stop Trading on Congressional Knowledge Act.

The bill, which has languished since first being introduced in 2006, now has over 150 sponsors and the Senate held its first-ever hearing on related legislation last week.

"We've had a lot of recent converts now that the public knows what's going on," quips Peter Schweizer, author of Throw Them All Out, a book which -- along with a subsequent 60 Minutes profile -- helped focus the nation's attention on the trading activities of sitting members of Congress.
According to both Schweizer and separate university studies, sitting members of Congress have outperformed the market by 6% to 12% in the 1980s and 1990s. Another study contradicts that claim. Andrew Eggers of Yale University and Jens Hainmueller of MIT examined the stock portfolios of members of Congress between 2004 and 2008 and found the country's representatives "unperformed the market by 2-3% annually" during that period.

But whether elected officials outperform or trail the market is almost beside the point: Americans overwhelmingly believe insider trading by members of Congress needs to stop.

"To me it's a little encouraging," Schweizer says of Congress' sudden interest in the STOCK Act. "It shows if the American people are angry about something...there is an opportunity to effect change in a positive way that's not partisan one way or the other."

While encouraged by support for the STOCK Act, which he believes will pass, Schweizer says other reforms are necessary, just as mandating sitting members of Congress use blind trusts for their portfolios. (See: 'Throw Them All Out' Author Says STOCK Act Won't Stop Pols' Insider Trades)

As a fellow at the right-leaning Hoover Institute, editor at the right-leaning Breitbart.com and adviser to Sarah Palin's PAC, Schweizer's political affiliations are pretty obvious. Still, he is bipartisan in criticizing insider trading by politicians.

Among other Republicans, he cites Rep. Spencer Bachus (R-Al.) for allegedly shorting the market after privately meeting with Chairman Ben Bernanke and Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Rep. Bachus, who claims the book has "several major and serious untruths and outright factual errors about me," will chair Tuesday's House hearing on the STOCK Act, which should make for some very interesting testimony.
For the record, Schweizer did not be testify at last week's Senate hearing nor is he scheduled to appear at Tuesday's House hearing in part, he suspects, because he's 'named names'.


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby SBajwa » 07 Dec 2011 06:11

Citibank cutting 50,000 jobs as per Vikram Pandit (CEO)
http://article.wn.com/view/2011/11/07/P ... am_Pandit/

also he tweets that present crisis is not the same as 2008.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Satya_anveshi » 07 Dec 2011 06:36


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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Singha » 07 Dec 2011 10:31

>> also he tweets that present crisis is not the same as 2008.

lately several people within the big tent have began making this mysterious statement that "its worse than 2008" or "its not the same as 2008". right now there are no 2008 type emergency flashpoints needing the wall street top brass to sit in a room and decide within a few hrs how to save their empires.....so what is cooking inside the hawkins pressure cooker for this grim sense of foreboding?

whatever it is , must be ugly...for people to be making such statements...so they can claim later they predicted it, land a book deal and write history as well as predict the future...

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby svinayak » 07 Dec 2011 12:51

It is a massive hole which they can see and the rest of the world cannot see.
Deflation and contraction of the economy in the western world is enormous and they are trying to show acitivty by using speculation and money supply

This thing cannot be supported and it will have to crash to sustainable level

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby abhischekcc » 07 Dec 2011 14:13

Psychopaths seek out those professions where they can exercise power over others in large scale. These professions are:

1. Media
2. Politics
3. Big business (especially in recent decades)
4. Justice - strangely, this is a very attractive profession for these criminal personalities
5. Administrative services

Lower intelligence psychopaths also seek to get into the police.

In earlier generations, military and profesorship in college/university was also sought after.

-------
PS
The caste system protected Indian society for a long time by limiting the amount of power any psychopath can bear.

Current western financial institutions resemble psychopathic networks - Goldman Sachs is the worst offender.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby SBajwa » 07 Dec 2011 21:12

by Pandyan
Which currency would you recommend?


US and Canada both are good as well as strategic currency is concerned.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby shyam » 08 Dec 2011 13:15

Slowly, signs of protectionism in the west is becoming visible.
‘Buy French’ Becomes Crisis Battle Cry in France

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Singha » 08 Dec 2011 13:31

australian dollar might be good as well. the world needs minerals and Aus has a ton of it, low population and good national security situation and political stability.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby abhischekcc » 08 Dec 2011 16:50

Many moons ago, I said that the current economi crisis in west will lead to the destruction of liberalism (both social and economic). And it is coming true.

I also said that the solution to this crisis is ending of feminism - putting women back in the home from office - will not be implemented by the west, because liberalism is the battering ram with which the west opens ip non western markets. And so west will continue to travel down this slope.

The current crisis is nothing by the final destruction of the modern financial/economic architecture that was created in Venice/Renaissance.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 08 Dec 2011 20:46

France's Sarkozy warns Europe risks disintegration


Aur Ek Dhakka Do

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 08 Dec 2011 22:25

Singha wrote:>> also he tweets that present crisis is not the same as 2008.

lately several people within the big tent have began making this mysterious statement that "its worse than 2008" or "its not the same as 2008". right now there are no 2008 type emergency flashpoints needing the wall street top brass to sit in a room and decide within a few hrs how to save their empires.....so what is cooking inside the hawkins pressure cooker for this grim sense of foreboding?

whatever it is , must be ugly...for people to be making such statements...so they can claim later they predicted it, land a book deal and write history as well as predict the future...


Most of the large banks are TARP funded and partially owned by US tax payer. Can it be possible for these banks to write-off their losses and pass them to its stock holders, which is the US tax payer thru the GoUS?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Prem » 09 Dec 2011 00:06

http://www.businessinsider.com/goldman- ... cs-2011-12
Goldman Sachs Reveals 5 Huge Global Themes For The Next 10 Years

Dominic Wilson, chief market economist at the investment house, updated Goldman's view on the four nations. Though he acknowledges their amazing growth over the last ten years, he thinks the BRIC story has only just begun.Goldman estimates that by 2050, Brazil, Russia, India and China will all rank in the top five global economies, with the U.S. the only developed market in the group. But, the bank sees non-BRIC emerging markets including the Next-Eleven, or Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Iran, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Philippines, South Korea, Turkey, and Vietnam, contributing 40% towards GDP growth by 2050, up from 27% over the last decade.This story of the ‘Expanding Middle’ is likely to continue and remains firmly intact in the new projections. As a result of the continued shift in the economic weight of the BRICs and other EM economies, we see a steady rise in the share of income of the middle-income economies," lead analyst Dominic Wilson writes.The next decade will see the fasted global growth rate, so long as demand remains intact. At an average of 4.3%, global GDP will climb at a greater clip than seen over the past two decades. Goldman believes this will continue to pressure commodity prices higher as demand ramps up.We would expect the Chinese economy to surpass the U.S. in 2026, and the BRICs together to surpass the U.S. in 2015 and the G7 in 2032," Wilson writes.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 09 Dec 2011 05:52

abhischekcc wrote:I also said that the solution to this crisis is ending of feminism - putting women back in the home from office - will not be implemented by the west, because liberalism is the battering ram with which the west opens ip non western markets. And so west will continue to travel down this slope.

The current crisis is nothing by the final destruction of the modern financial/economic architecture that was created in Venice/Renaissance.


I see the root problem as being the useless middleman "industry". Central banking, fiat money, goldman sachs..etc only invite theft from the productive in society. The end result is despite decades of gains in productivity and innovation, a country ends up poorer in real terms.

Feminism also needs to go. Its (partly) resulted in a destruction of the birth rate and skyrocketing divorce rates. But I won't blame it outright. Women in the work force are more so symptomatic of the destruction of a man's wages through "promoting inflation" (aka counterfeiting of money) to sustain the useless middleman industry. Women have no choice but to work to keep pace with the destruction of famiily income.

Hence we come to a stark conclusion. The useless middleman industry not only destroys income but also destroys (the creation of) children! It raises the cost of living, prevents or at the very least delays the formation of family and all this is due to its theft of purchasing power from the people and corruption of govt to encourage more croneyism & taxation to keep the parasite well fed.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Satya_anveshi » 09 Dec 2011 09:51

Official: EU fails to agree on treaty change with 27 states, tries instead for eurozone accord

The U.K., with its euro-skeptic prime minister David Cameron, was seen as one of the main obstacles to reaching agreement among the 27.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 09 Dec 2011 19:45

Found today on Krugman's NYT blog...
Will The Real Hari Seldon Please Stand Up?
Nah, reclined is more comfy, I guess...

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 09 Dec 2011 19:56

Satya_anveshi wrote:Official: EU fails to agree on treaty change with 27 states, tries instead for eurozone accord

The U.K., with its euro-skeptic prime minister David Cameron, was seen as one of the main obstacles to reaching agreement among the 27.

Eurozone deal reached without UK

EU members which use the euro have agreed to a tax and budget pact to tackle the eurozone's debt crisis.

But a German and French attempt to get all 27 EU states to back changes to the union's treaties was dropped after objections from the UK.

Prime Minister David Cameron had insisted on an exemption for the UK from some financial regulations.

Instead, eurozone members and others will adopt an accord with penalties for breaking deficit rules.

The new tougher rules on spending and budgets will now be backed not by an EU treaty but by a treaty between governments. It will be quicker to set up but it may prove less rigorous, says the BBC's Europe editor Gavin Hewitt in Brussels.



The main measures agreed to as part of the new agreement, called a "fiscal compact" include:

* a cap of 0.5% of GDP on countries' annual structural deficits
* "automatic consequences" for countries whose public deficit exceeds 3% of GDP
* the tighter rules to be enshrined in countries' constitutions
* European Stability Mechanism (ESM) to be accelerated and brought into force in July 2012
* adequacy of 500bn-euro (£427bn; $666bn) limit for ESM to be reassessed
* Eurozone and other EU countries to provide up to 200bn euros to the IMF to help debt-stricken eurozone members
Last edited by RamaY on 09 Dec 2011 20:00, edited 1 time in total.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Hari Seldon » 09 Dec 2011 20:00

UK is the anglo-saxon Pakistan in oirozone's side... MFN khao but mat khilao.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 09 Dec 2011 20:10

^ Exactly my thoughts. I pray God that the ango-saxon pakistan evolves into a real pakistan.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Neshant » 09 Dec 2011 20:41

EU is desperately looking for trade barriers to implement against the developing world and now is into pumping global warming junk science and hype.

----
EU warns time running out for climate deal

http://news.yahoo.com/coalition-growing ... 02053.html

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby krisna » 09 Dec 2011 20:59

RamaY wrote:
The U.K., with its euro-skeptic prime minister David Cameron, was seen as one of the main obstacles to reaching agreement among the 27.

Eurozone deal reached without UK




A british member of the european parliament made a telling comment that european union was created to control Germany!!. why are others now looking to germany to steady the EU ship.
Brits want to dominate/have a greater say but not able to put in their weight. :(( :((

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby krisna » 09 Dec 2011 21:26

polish speech in berlin about EU
This moral significance of money intrigued Immanuel Kant, who wrote that the entire
practice of lending money presupposed at least the honest intention to repay. If this
condition were universally ignored, the very idea of lending and sharing wealth would
be undermined.

For Kant, honesty and responsibility were categorical imperatives: the foundation of any
moral order. For the European Union, likewise, these are the cornerstones. I would
point to the two fundamental values: Responsibility and Solidarity. Our responsibility for
decisions and processes. And Solidarity when it comes to bearing the burdens.

Today, as the first Polish Presidency is drawing to a close, I will tackle basic questions:

How did we get into this crisis?

Where do we go from here?

How to get there?

What does Poland bring?

What do we ask of Germany?

* *

It is of course partly about debt, the need to deleverage our economies from the crazy
heights caused by government overspending, accounting chicanery and irresponsible
financial engineering. And the deleveraging is occurring beyond the Euro zone: look at
the UK with its debt of 80% of GDP and the US, with 100%.

But if it were only a question of debt, you would expect ratings and spreads to be
affecting countries in proportion to their indebtedness. But, very strikingly, this is not
the case. Some countries, such as the UK and Japan, with high debt in proportion to
GDP, pay low premiums. Others, with lower debt – like Spain, pay high ones.

The inevitable conclusion is that this crisis is not only about debt, but primarily about
confidence and, more precisely, credibility. About investor perception where their
funds are safe.


The Euro zone crisis is a more dramatic manifestation of the European malaise because
its founders created a system in which each of its members has the capacity to bring it
down, with appalling costs to themselves and the entire neighborhood.


About Britain--
Which brings me to the issue of whether an important member, Britain, can support
reform. You have given the Union its common language. The Single Market was largely
your brilliant idea. A British commissioner runs our diplomacy. You could lead Europe
on defence. You are an indispensable link across the Atlantic. On the other hand, Euro
zone’s collapse would hugely harm your economy. Also, your total sovereign, corporate
and household debt exceeds 400% of GDP. Are you sure markets will always favour
you? We would prefer you in, but if you can’t join, please allow us to forge ahead. And
please start explaining to your people that European decisions are not Brussels’ diktats
but results of agreements in which you freely participate.


About Germany-
Fifth question: What does Poland ask of Germany?

We ask, first of all, that Germany admits that she is the biggest beneficiary of the
current arrangements and therefore that she has the biggest obligation to make them
sustainable.

Second, as you know best, you are not an innocent victim of others’ profligacy. You, who
should have known better, have also broken the Growth and Stability Pact and your
banks also recklessly bought risky bonds.

Third, because investors have been selling the bonds of exposed countries and flying to
safety, your borrowing costs have been lower than they would have been in normal
times, so you may be benefitting in the short term, but...

Fourth, that if your neighbours’ economies stall or implode, you will suffer greatly, too.

Fifth, that despite your understandable aversion to inflation, you appreciate that the
danger of collapse is now a much bigger threat.

Sixth, that because of your size and your history you have a special responsibility to
preserve peace and democracy on the continent. Jurgen Habermas has wisely said that
"If the European project fails, then there is the question of how long it will take to reach
the status quo again. Remember the German Revolution of 1848: When it failed, it took
us 100 years to regain the same level of democracy as before."

What, as Poland’s foreign minister, do I regard as the biggest threat to the security and
prosperity of Poland today, on 28th November 2011? It’s not terrorism, it’s not the
Taliban, and it’s certainly not German tanks. It’s not even Russian missiles which
President Medvedev has just threatened to deploy on the EU’s border. The biggest
threat to the security and prosperity of Poland would be the collapse of the Euro zone.


And I demand of Germany that, for your own sake and for ours, you help it survive and
prosper. You know full well that nobody else can do it. I will probably be first Polish
foreign minister in history to say so, but here it is: I fear German power less than I am
beginning to fear German inactivity.

You have become Europe’s indispensable nation.
You may not fail to lead. Not dominate, but to lead in reform.
Provided you include us in decision-making, Poland will support you.


conclusion-
But we are standing on the edge of a precipice. This is the scariest moment of my
ministerial life but therefore also the most sublime. Future generations will judge us by
what we do, or fail to do. Whether we lay the foundations for decades of greatness, or
shirk our responsibility and acquiesce in decline.

As a Pole and a European, here in Berlin, I say: the time to act is now.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 09 Dec 2011 22:30

About Britain--
Which brings me to the issue of whether an important member, Britain, can support
reform. You have given the Union its common language. The Single Market was largely
your brilliant idea. A British commissioner runs our diplomacy. You could lead Europe
on defence. You are an indispensable link across the Atlantic. On the other hand, Euro
zone’s collapse would hugely harm your economy. Also, your total sovereign, corporate
and household debt exceeds 400% of GDP. Are you sure markets will always favour
you? We would prefer you in, but if you can’t join, please allow us to forge ahead. And
please start explaining to your people that European decisions are not Brussels’ diktats
but results of agreements in which you freely participate.


Krishna ji,

This summarizes Britan's Pakiness. I wonder what is holding Europe back? Fear of Germany?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 09 Dec 2011 23:37

Europe or Euro-Zone is a sum of nations. One of the most important, if not the most important, foundation of a state/nation is the ability to tax and spend. i.e. determine the economic & financial direction of the state/nation and its subjects. If tomorrow every government of Euro-Zone has to take a permission slip from Brussels before they set their budget, then they loose something very important.

Each and every ruler attending the Euro-Zone conference right now is a PM or a President. If they cede control of finance to Brussels they effectively become CM or Governors. It is very difficult to find people who want to willingly give up power. The concept of "TYAG" is alien to many cultures.

This is what hold backs majority of Europeans. For the rich countries it is a different worry. The rich countries of Europe are concerned that they will have to carry the burden of their so called slouchy/lazy cousins. That is why the so called german proposals for a semi-fiscal union, with sanctions and permitted level of budget spending, have favour and not a full fiscal union. In a full fiscal union revenue earned from one place is spent in some other place. Like in US, the state of New York/ New Jersy/California become the biggest providers for federal tax revenue but which is spent in states like Utah or Wisconsin and so on. Or take our country for example, the states of Western India and Southern India are the biggest contributor to the central taxes pool, but states like Bengal get massive packages to the tune of a few thousand corers. Nothing wrong in it.

Put together EU easily exceeds USA. Economically and in every other field or criteria that one can think of. But they just cannot unite under the banner of Europe. They are Germans, French, Greeks or British first. Then Europeans. Not Europeans first.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby ramana » 10 Dec 2011 00:23

So what were the UK misgivings that made them not vote for the rescue package?

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby Christopher Sidor » 10 Dec 2011 00:47

ramana wrote:So what were the UK misgivings that made them not vote for the rescue package?

It is loss of clout. I recall seeing in BBC the British PM saying that he will fight to preserve the status of the city of London. Shows where his allegiance lies. British economy is not like the German economy. The German economic might is built on industries. There are German car companies ( VW, BMW, Mercedes), engineering majors (Siemens), etc. Now try to find comparable British companies. Hell even French have two car firms Renault and Peugeot Citroën.

We already see Britishers as Europeans, just as for Germans/French/Italian. But not the Europeans. The Europeans do not see themselves as such. They may have a common currency. But thats all they have. What they dont seem to have, is a common identity, which can suppress their differences.

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Re: Perspectives on the global economic meltdown- (Nov 28 20

Postby RamaY » 10 Dec 2011 01:18

^^^

Good point CSji. Earlier someone was saying similar thing. Why Europe wonders why it cannot be like India or how India does it and Europe cannot.


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